International markets traders banter

[Joules MM1]

s'all about focus......what one is focused on.....what matters and what doesnt.......that's the difference.....some can fly a plane stick/rudder some have to have lots of dials or they get stuck and even then they get caught up on an idea and can't let go.......

[artist]

the post i answered had a question that started with why not how

i stuck in the word "how"

i think that's pretty clear

( per the email request )

It has been established previously in this forum that editing and altering another member's post is unacceptable. If you have a point to make, take the time to express it in a separate post, not by presuming to alter, much less "correct" (as per your response to my Private Message to you), what someone else wrote or how that was expressed.

[Joules MM1]

It has been established previously in this forum that editing and altering another member's post is unacceptable. If you have a point to make, take the time to express it in a separate post, not by presuming to alter, much less "correct" (as per your response to my Private Message to you), what someone else wrote or how that was expressed.

yep, got it, thanks

[avion]

most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......

Joules, very true but the statement from was from TH about long term carrer as a trader, ie 'looking grim'. TH is very much so beyond that particular hurdle, so yes i am looking for more explanation/clarification as to why it would be not viable in the long term or why is it looking 'grim' expecially for someone with consistent profitablility. TH over to you?

[tech/a]

most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......

With trading as s business like most businesses.
undercapitalisation will be the main downfall.

On the flip side with consistent profit and good
capitalisation then you have just as much chance
of continued success as any business.

If the "business" alters significantly then
adaptation is required if you cannot successfully
adapt then failure is not far away.

[barney]

Who knows really but the probability of success as a fulltime trader long term is grim.

Hey TH ......

You talking literally(financially) here, or referring to the physical stress/toll associated when trading with size


Just curious, especially after your recent "ticker flicker"

Cheers.

[Joules MM1]

german court decision.....pos buying......

[Trembling Hand]

If the "business" alters significantly then
adaptation is required if you cannot successfully
adapt then failure is not far away.

Joules, very true but the statement from was from TH about long term carrer as a trader, ie 'looking grim'. TH is very much so beyond that particular hurdle, so yes i am looking for more explanation/clarification as to why it would be not viable in the long term or why is it looking 'grim' expecially for someone with consistent profitablility. TH over to you?

My point is about consistent profitability. Since starting what is scarily over 10 years ago I've been here,
2001-2004 idiot punta
2005-2006 Stock/CFD/FX trader with a "rough" discretionary system profiting from an early bull market
2006-2008 SPI scalper trading smallish lots with lots of success
2009- early 2010 Struggling SPI trader making 40% of previous years as a percentage of capital.
2010 - NOW nuts HSI trader trying to increase my size to stupid levels to milk what is a definite edge but one which will, if it goes the same as other "edges"/market conditions, I suspect disappear.

So already I've faced 4 major shifts in markets where I've had to relearn my game. Anyone of these could of taken me out. Now here is the kicker. Full time traders have one big disadvantage to part-timers. They have a continual drag on their accounts from having to live like a rock star, pay tax out of etc. Few will be able to survive a year where their account is down after living expenses and your market is forcing you to reassess your approach or face another down year.

Thats why there is no more SPI locals.

Hey TH ......

You talking literally(financially) here, or referring to the physical stress/toll associated when trading with size

See above

[artist]

Thanks for the elaboration TH.

[barney]

My point is about consistent profitability.

Cheers M8 .......... I was a bit concerned your ticker might have needed a Defib with the size you are trading atm .... all is good as long as you are healthy ..... Don't want you leaving all that cash to your Dog just yet

[tech/a]

My point is about consistent profitability. Since starting what is scarily over 10 years ago I've been here,
2001-2004 idiot punta
2005-2006 Stock/CFD/FX trader with a "rough" discretionary system profiting from an early bull market
2006-2008 SPI scalper trading smallish lots with lots of success
2009- early 2010 Struggling SPI trader making 40% of previous years as a percentage of capital.
2010 - NOW nuts HSI trader trying to increase my size to stupid levels to milk what is a definite edge but one which will, if it goes the same as other "edges"/market conditions, I suspect disappear.

So already I've faced 4 major shifts in markets where I've had to relearn my game. Anyone of these could of taken me out. Now here is the kicker. Full time traders have one big disadvantage to part-timers. They have a continual drag on their accounts from having to live like a rock star, pay tax out of etc. Few will be able to survive a year where their account is down after living expenses and your market is forcing you to reassess your approach or face another down year.

Thats why there is no more SPI locals.

See above

Aw I dont know my tax bill was spiked due to my trading
takes the fun out of it --- not happy.
As for living like a rock star--I can but impersonate Gene Simmons!

[5oclock]

Hey , TH thanks for the no BS glimpse at your tradeing career, as always your posts and techs posts provide a lot of food for thought for us lesser mortals. Makes a big difference when you know that the posters tell it like it really is.

[Joules MM1]

bought to open gold cfd at 31's hit at 22's rebought at 25's ........this ones for tech/a

(benny boy is stoking the fires)

[boofis]

US treasuries have been a trend followers dream!

[Joules MM1]

fat boys fat boys wotchya gonna do.....

[Joules MM1]

the real reason he went broke?: wrong phone.....



having a flat hair day today obviously

[Joules MM1]

big snp comments

[Joules MM1]

Can, did you watch that little swap of drivers pos's in the DAX......shorts on

[CanOz]

Can, did you watch that little swap of drivers pos's in the DAX......shorts on

Not on the Dax but caught the top on the FESX. I'm on sim though, no confidence in the Internet here to live it. Sellers swamped it though!

CanOz

[sinner]

Evening traders!

Got a new job about a month ago, been travelling and having fun doing cool geeky stuff. Back in Melbourne for a couple of days of work before more travel.

Just thought I'd drop in and say hello, noticed some interesting discussion going on here. Reminds me a lot of Talebs discussion about the Arc Sine Law, I couldn't find the paper after a quick google but did find this blog about the topic from Risk Latte:

http://www.risklatte.com/Articles/Qu...nce/QF_204.php

This means the probability that in a time interval , where we have approximated the as , denoting a time period of one year, the probability that is always be positive or negative is 0.64%. This is quite a small probability. In other words, it is highly unlikely that over a period of one year a trader will consistently make profits or losses. His skill – or, the lack of it – is completely negated by the arc sine law. Instead of one year, change the time interval to 5 years, i.e. choose . The probability comes out to be 0.13%, even smaller. A trader’s luck has to run out somewhere.

Assuming that the trader started out with a very modest capital (this is an assumption to make the process consistent with ) and built his fortune over time, then over a 5 year period, i.e. the probability that , that is the trader will lose his shirt, is given by

This means that there is a big possibility – nearly certain – that all profits made by the trader will be wiped out in a 5 year period.

(you should really click the link to read the article as I can't paste the equations here without taking a screenshot)

Hope everyone is doing well and enjoying the trends out there.