Simulated Trades and Analysis

[pavilion103]

I've started a thread for people to post any trades, either trades they are looking to take or the trade management of existing trades.

I will be posting up some of my own in the coming weeks. My own trading analysis will largely involve VSA principles.

[pavilion103]

It would be good to get people's thoughts on this one.

This is one I already entered on 2/2/12 for a 2R profit. My analysis for this trade is on the chart.

I'm thinking of a buy-stop just above the high of the 15/2 bar and a stop loss just below the high of the high volume bar of 2/2.
Enter: $0.066
Stop: $0.059

Chart 1 = Short Term Chart

It doesn't look like there is any huge climactic action to end this trend.

PEN (Feb12).jpg

Chart 2 = Medium Term Chart

PEN (Feb12) 2.jpg

Chart 3 = Weekly Chart

Is it best to wait for the week or more bars to play out to see if it finds support at the low of that ultra high volume bar?

PEN (Feb12) 3.jpg

[tech/a]

I don't see any reason to enter yet.
Other than a common bottom on the last two bars.
The very high volume bars range should act as support.
So would be looking for entries in that price range
I do agree this is likely to continue

[pavilion103]

Here is another one. RRL.

I only included the one chart for this one to save some time.

Enter: 4.19 (above high of 14/2)
Stop: $3.99 (below high of 27/1 - high volume bar)

RRL (Feb12).jpg

[pavilion103]

This isn't a new one, but wondering who got a piece of this? This was on my watch list at the time but did not enter. Potential 10R profit depending on where the stops were placed. Made a lot of sense from a technical point of view.

MAD (Feb12).jpg

This shows a close up around the period when it broke.

MAD (Feb12) 2.jpg

[Billyb]

Here is another one. RRL.

I only included the one chart for this one to save some time.

Enter: 4.19 (above high of 14/2)
Stop: $3.99 (below high of 27/1 - high volume bar)

RRL (Feb12).jpg

Looks good to me. I would have done something similar except I would have used the low of the last bar as my stop but it works at at pretty much the same value as your VSA based stop anyway.

[pavilion103]

COH

Looks like no supply into a very significant ultra high volume area. I'm not sure if this is ready to move yet, but looks like a good medium term one which is headed up.



COH (Feb12).jpg

COH (Feb12) 2.jpg

WEEKLY
COH (Feb12) 3.jpg

[pavilion103]

AZH

Enter: 0.93
Stop: 0.855

AZH (Feb12).jpg

[tech/a]

COH

Looks like no supply into a very significant ultra high volume area. I'm not sure if this is ready to move yet, but looks like a good medium term one which is headed up.



COH (Feb12).jpg

COH (Feb12) 2.jpg

WEEKLY
COH (Feb12) 3.jpg

Resisting at the gap what is that saying?
High volume which is at the high of each
Test what is that saying?

[Boggo]

A half dozen from tonights data where I wouldn't mind seeing you guys apply a bit of VSA analysis to.

BND - CCU - GBG - HGO - PEK - NFE.

[pavilion103]

Resisting at the gap what is that saying?
High volume which is at the high of each
Test what is that saying?

Are you thinking that it looks like it is struggling to go higher with the two highest volume bars visible in the first chart being selling? That is my main concern.
It certainly doesn't look like a clear break above that gap with clear consolidation/pullback on no supply. But it does look like it is in an uptrend. The last few bars look strong.
Would you wait for a break above the control bar on 20 December before looking to possibly enter?

[pavilion103]

I'm not pro but I'll give it a crack. Tech can help me out if he sees any glaring mistakes (or can add further comments).

BND

Daily Chart
BND (Feb12).jpg

Weekly Chart
BND (Feb12) 2.jpg

[pavilion103]

CCU

Daily Chart
CCU (Feb12).jpg

Weekly Chart
CCU (Feb12) 2.jpg

[pavilion103]

HGO

HGO (Feb12).jpg

[pavilion103]

NFE

NFE (Feb12).jpg

[pavilion103]

Tech, if you get a moment to look over the charts could you possibly give me a yay or nay for each of them. Maybe point to anything that I've overlooked.
Thanks mate,
Matt

[tech/a]

Are you thinking that it looks like it is struggling to go higher with the two highest volume bars visible in the first chart being selling? That is my main concern.
It certainly doesn't look like a clear break above that gap with clear consolidation/pullback on no supply. But it does look like it is in an uptrend. The last few bars look strong.
Would you wait for a break above the control bar on 20 December before looking to possibly enter?

Yes pretty good
The higher lows and sell off volume at highs is a longer term sign that buyers are likely to win in the end
That gap though is going to take some filling.
My feeling is that supply will be exhausted---- eventually ---- and the gap closed quickly.but more evidence needed.

BND
Volume now seems to be absorbing as it is holding up well
(weekly chart) could be a while.

CCU
Lots of resistance ahead

[Boggo]

Thanks Matt - appreciate that.
It creates a whole new view of breakouts/trend reversal/continuation etc.

I need to set aside some time to get more aquainted with this approach.

[pavilion103]

Thanks Matt - appreciate that.
It creates a whole new view of breakouts/trend reversal/continuation etc.

I need to set aside some time to get more aquainted with this approach.

No worries. I didn't do GBG and PEK because I didn't have enough time and these two are already on my watchlist so I thought I would acquaint myself with a few of the others

Yes VSA makes a lot of sense as a trading approach. I am much indebted to Tech for his support and pointing me in the right direction. I'm up to just over 1,000 hours of study and counting!!!

[Boggo]

I'm up to just over 1,000 hours of study and counting!!!

Yes, I know what you mean, I need a few more hours in a day.

Have you noticed that the harder you work at it the luckier you get