Survivor risk/reward - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Default Survivor risk/reward

    Something different from the obvious troubles happening atm

    I was intrigued watching Survivor recently. Given Techa and others drumming into us the importance of risk/reward, I thought this was interesting.

    A woman had the chance to either take a new Pontiac and a good feed or pass it up and give the 4 other contestants the same prize ea. It was explained that in 11 series no one had gone on to win the $1 mil and was regarded as a curse after taking the car. She took the car and was the next voted off.

    So the numbers
    At that point 20% chance of $1 mil
    She gives others cars her chance subjectively rises to 25% ( can't be measured) but highly unlikely to be voted off next tribal council

    From here it's all subjective, not knowing how the game plays out, winning immunity, etc.

    I'm asking is the reward ( $1 mil ) worth the risk of relinquishing a Pontiac for a better than 1 in 5 chance of the $1 mil, cause that's what I would have done.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Survivor risk/reward

    If someone gave you a car ($80,000) would you give them a cool million?

    I wouldnt
    The greatest trick the devil ever played was convincing mankind he does not exist.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Survivor risk/reward

    In these cases personal and emotional factors come into the decision or any other decision similar.

    When we make a business or commercial decison which involves a reward to risk we work purely (or should) with numbers where reward needs to be greater than risk.

    Two different decision making processes.

    I know which one I have least problem with!!!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Port Adelaide

    Default Re: Survivor risk/reward

    I can't believe she didn't give them a car each. She would have made the final four for certain had she done so.

    The fact that the winner of the car has never won the million is no coincidence or curse..it's fact.

    And the way she went on and on about the bloody car to the other tribe members.....lol....no wonder they got rid of her.


  5. #5
    noirua's Avatar
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    Feb 2006
    Kent, England
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    Default Re: Holocaust Survivor risk/reward

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