Why the world needs silver.
Youtube is a great place to get some quick free entertainment but a really horrible place to do any investment research.
Most of the facts in that video are legit, but the way the numbers are presented lacks relevance.
Gold has a high price because people want it and its quite rare. The average C1 cash cost of gold mines globally is about $450 / Oz.
Silver is pretty common by comparison, the spot price has been so low for so long that not many have spent much money getting big reserves of the stuff, so if you look at total reserves the figure can be a bit low, but there is plenty out there, quite often close to the surface, and cheap to mine. Average silver mine costs (and there are not many that call themselves silver mines) are about $8 an Oz, and usually comes with lead credits.
Currently thats a margin of about 400%. Any business enjoying a margin of 400% is sure to attract new players in the market, and if silver does not crash down from its current highs, a ****load of supply will come online asap. Silver is usually allot easier to mine than gold, and heaps easier than base metals (because so much less ore is needed to be milled) and therefore is easier to get off the ground.
Industrial demand is higher than golds, at 40-50%, but thats not what has driven these prices so high. Its investment thats driving prices, and as soon as the returns are not there, the investors sell out.
Expect volatility, but I dont think the facts point to silver coming anywhere near the POG in the next 20 years.
"You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!" - Uncle Festivus
Keep this in mind if you have a flutter!
Remember, if you participate in a pump and dump, you must dump first (or fast)!
Young ones don't know about Nelson Bunker Hunt!
While the background influences remain in place, it'd hard to see the precious metals trend unwinding for quite a while. Silver $50/oz may be a psychological hurdle to some market participants, but talk of major retracement seems speculative.
"..National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos said the Australian dollar should remain high, supported by an appetite among international investors for more risky assets in hope of higher returns. "We remain comfortable with our view that the Australian dollar will trade between $US1 and $US1.10 over the next six months," Mr Kyriakopoulos said.
"The two rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia that we forecast are not priced by the market. Australian economic growth is starting to pick up, and we can see further falls in the unemployment rate triggering another step up in RBA rate hike expectations over coming months.
"The likelihood that the US doesn't raise interest rates over the next six months is rising, suggesting a slim possibility of a sharp rebound in the US dollar..""
Your right, forcasting a major retractment at $50 is speculative, I have nothing to back this up but a gut feeling. All I know is that I will be out before then rain hail or shine and I reckon other people feel the same way.
"You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!" - Uncle Festivus
I'm no expert on silver mining, but I always thought it was mostly a by-product of other metals (particularly lead and zinc) mining, with the lead and zinc being the main finanical incentive for the mine.
Certainly that's the case at mines I've seen such as Rosebery. Primarily a zinc mine, with lead and copper also produced in significant volume and of financial importance. Yes it also produces gold and silver, and these are extracted as metals on site, but financially they are very much a sideline to the main business in zinc, lead and copper. It's much the same at the refining end - precious metals are worth recovering but of minimal overall importance compared to the other metals.
So realistically, any surge in silver production would have to be based on mining ores where silver is the main game. How viable that is I really don't know...
The facts seem to be correct, it seems to be balanced.
Not one mention that it was pushed to all time high by one man with very deep pockets.
A factual, balanced report would have noted that!
I sense that manipulation is alive and kicking!
Can anyone recommend any silver mining stocks?
Would anybody recommend PEM, MAR, SLV or TRY?
Any investing websites would be appreciated.
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Thought this thread worth rejuvinating and a good one to discuss the pros and cons with jank where we were getting off topic on the property thread.
The following link is to an article pointing to manipulation in the paper silver market. A year or two back I was ridiculed for suggesting that in the 24 hour period there were some very odd moves, particularly at normal quiet times or high impact times. Anyhow this puts a bit more to it than mere conspiracy in my view.
The trick was certainly buying before the mid-2010 explosive move. (I still hold the coinage I bought up to $18, but didn't add any since.)
It will be interesting to see whether we get a 5th wave down (any Ellioticians out there?). My chart is still showing indecision/ consolidation.
XAG vol 11-11-11.gif
However, given the high volatility, anything can happen.
In the Silver sector, I'm currently holding only SVL, OZL, and trading AYN.
Artificial Intelligence is no match for Innate Stupidity.
Silver Wheaton posts record first-quarter revenues, profit
Julia Johnson May 14, 2012 – 7:58 AM ET | Last Updated: May 14, 2012 8:44 AM ET
July 28, 2012
of course, the antidote question is what reason does the extreme short pos stem from?King World News is reporting on an absolutely stunning development, this time in the silver market. Acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN that in the silver market, “... the hedge fund outright short position is the largest position that I’ve got on my records going back to the beginning of 2007. We’re talking about a five and a half year period.”
Norcini also noted there would be a huge move in silver, “if they (hedge funds shorts) get caught on the wrong side of that market ... because all of those shorts are going to head to the exits at the same time.”
The acclaimed trader also discussed hegde fund problems in the gold market, but first, Bill Haynes, President of CMI Gold & Silver, had this to say about QE: “Eric, it’s guaranteed, it’s just a question of when. Probably within a few weeks. Subastian Mallaby, a contributing editor to the Financial Times and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, in Wednesday’s Financial Times, chided Bernanke and the Fed for not showing some audacity, some aggressiveness in attacking the problem of an economy that will not get going.”
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...er_Market.htmlWhat the COT report is showing us is that the swap dealers, again, those strong hands we had been mentioning the last two weeks, they continue to build a net long position in the gold market. The swap dealers are net longs, the hedge funds had a small net long position after putting on some fresh shorts, the commercials, the big bullion banks, had a relatively small net short position by (historical) comparison.
ok, so this is the same crowd that used to come with the enlargement for men marketing, so.....ya know....
Has anyone ever purchased junk silver? Would love to hear from someone who has, or does anyone know of any easy/cheap ways to purchase junk silver? I would expect to pay spot price, but alot of places seem to be well above spot.
Silver is shaping up to be a great investment, jmo.
young-gun. I have 1966 50c rounds which are 80% silve. I have a mate that has recently bought Us junk silver. Here are a couple of links, one from Ainslie in Brissy. Good luck.
http://www.momssilvershop.com/ and her son from JH mint will sell internatinally still, all the others have stopped shippping OS
Don't know if the price is competitive or not.
Last edited by burglar; 16th-September-2012 at 04:32 PM.
forget gold.....go silver.......let's have some outrageous numbers please:
CITI: When Gold Hits $1790, Silver Will Go Bonkers
Matthew Boesler|Sep. 18, 2012, 11:19 AM
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-...#ixzz271kDDXmF
...gold move to the $3,400 level, it is not inconceivable that we may see silver closer to $100. Investors have to remember that at the end of the 70s the gold price doubled in a mere five or six weeks. If 3 to 5 years down the line we see that the base policy of the developed world is to continue printing money, then the gloves are off in terms of what levels gold and silver could actually go to.”