Forecast earnings compared to Actual earnings - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Default Forecast earnings compared to Actual earnings

    Ive been trying to work out Intrinsic Values for a whole stack of companies and because current IV and future values rely on forecast earnings the results can be a fair bit off.
    Obviously companies want to make the company look attractive to sharebuyers/holders etc so the figures could be skewed.

    Is there a way to find out actual EPS compared to forecast EPS for example?
    Im just thinking if a company is rather accurate historically it may help to forsee which have reliable figures etc.

    Also would this be of value or just a waste of time?
    Im thinking if a trend can be seen in the error it will help determine a realistic value.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Forecast earnings compared to Actual earnings

    I think they try to be pretty accurate because they are aware investors and traders will punish the SP hard if forecast > actual.

    There are some websites that publish a statistic called "history of disappointing the market". Can't remember where I saw it, maybe yahoo finance or etrade. Other than that, Lincoln Indicators would have it for a fee.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Forecast earnings compared to Actual earnings

    ah ok cheers,
    It would be nice to have that data.
    Ive just noticed that some companies have obscurely high EPS and doesnt make sense with their historic data and current business model.

    I run a spreadsheet, would be nice to graph actual and predicted.

    I was just working out RMD Resmed and the 2013 forecast EPS and IV seems incosistently high.
    RMD isnt the only company though.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Forecast earnings compared to Actual earnings

    Yes it was etrade. The chart is labeled "does this company have a history of surprising the market?" under "forecast earnings trends".

    They also give updates on earnings estimates, some of which are quite recent, say 7 days ago.

    Etrdaes data seems to come from morningstar so you could try there.

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