Will the budget return to surplus? - Aussie Stock Forums

View Poll Results: Will the budget return to surplus by 2012/13

26. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes

    3 11.54%
  • No

    19 73.08%
  • Yes - But will take longer

    4 15.38%
  • Maybe

    0 0%
Results 1 to 10 of 10
  1. #1
    Formerly known as JTC JTLP's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007

    Default Will the budget return to surplus?

    Was just having a ponder before (as one does on a Sunday night) and was debating whether the current Labor government will be able to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13?

    IMO - most certainly not. I don't think they could have ever achieved it under normal circumstances - and now with the catastrophe in QLD (which estimated costs are between 5 - 30 billion ) it would appear Gillard and CO have yet another slimy and easy way to weasel out of another promise.

    Now you can all sit here and say "act of god"/ can't be helped etc - but think about this - if you really want this beloved government to achieve their goal - it is mostly certainly going to come through in the form of a rushed resource tax (how much more rushed can it get?) and most likely a rushed carbon tax. Wouldn't this be lovely for all? I can really see the people whinging about prices of EVERYTHING if some of the lovely Labor schemes were to come to fruition.

    My heart goes out to QLD - it truly does - but sadly I think it will be a cheap get out of jail card for the government when it comes time to front the reality that they couldn't return the budget to surplus.


  2. #2
    Rotaredom wayneL's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    Not with Labor in power.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?


    ASF can consider this my bet, and hold me to it on 2013.

    Budget surpluses are not consistent in any way with labor politics. What will happen, instead of the government actually cutting spending, privatizing things etc, is they will proceed to roll out (in a well structured and cunning manner) a long line of excuses. These excuses will be carefully planned so as to sound like legitimate reasons why the surplus promise simply could not possibly be kept. The reasons, of course, will involve things that have changed since the promise was made.

    Its kind of like when somebody will not repay a friendly debt - there are always reasons coming from their mouth, but the debt could nevertheless be repaid if they actually wanted to.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    The floods are the best thing that has happened to the ALP in a long time, now they have an excuse to keep the budget in defecit for the next 10 years!

  5. #5

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    They're relying on the mining boom to keep the budget in surplus.

    Combine the recent floods and a likely recession in China (which will put us into recession) and you won't see a budget surplus for another 20 years
    Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. - Henry Hazlitt

  6. #6

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    The middle class welfare dished out in the latter years of the Howard Government were not exactly a high point of fiscal responsibility. To make matteres worse, what Johnny did badly, Tony was going to top with his paid perental leave scheme. Interesting policies from so-called conservatives.

    In power, both sides have failed to manage the increased revenue from the resources boom(s) poorly. Monetary policy will fill the gap (higher interest rates).

    As for the budget getting back to surplus, that's now more depenent on the ups and downs of commodities.

  7. #7
    Formerly known as TradersCircle3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    All evidence points to the fact that the Budget deficit is not reducing, let alone return to a surplus.
    The last taxation statement published by the Government has an annual deficit of $57 Billion for the 12 months ending 30th November 2010. Expenses are increasing at 2.7%, with Revenues down slightly for the year.
    An indication of the budget situation since November has the Government issuing a further $4.5 Billion of debt plus running off their cash deposits by another $6 Billion, for a total cash spend of $10.5 Billion as of last week.
    This is with no impact from the floods built in. The high level of the deficit is not reducing.
    The Government is still sticking to the line that the cash deficit will reduce to $41 Billion by June 2011, due to an impending boom in revenues. There are 5 months left for the year and nothing has turned yet.
    If the RBA lifts rates into depressed taxation revenue, maintaining the boom prediction, will be reminiscent when the RBA had rates at 7.25% in August 2008 months after the GFC had gripped the World.
    to view this commentary with graphs visit: http://www.traderscircle.com.au/free...s20120605.html

  8. #8

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    They never intended to return the budget to surplus. I would have thought that would be the number one priority, with the current state of government finances around the rest of the world. The problem is that the more governments borrow, the more resources are channelled into wasteful and inefficient uses.

    What worries me is that the defecits they are running are HUGE in a historical context, and they are adding zilch to Australia's productive capacity. And nobody seems to care Where is the media in all this?

  9. #9

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    Ms Gillard made it pretty clear on the 7.30 Report tonight that she's heading toward a Flood Levy. Wonderful opportunity for a new tax whilst still leaving room to claim the flood expenses were so overwhelming that they couldn't possibly be expected to get the budget back into surplus.

    To be insisting on a surplus is a purely political promotion. Just not realistic in terms of the flood bill, even if they'd had the faintest chance of doing it in the first place.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Will the budget return to surplus?

    Gillard has now clearly spelled out, on camera, that the government will both pay for the flood recovery, AND bring the budget to surplus as promised. The plot thickens.

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