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  1. #1
    The Contrarian Averager So_Cynical's Avatar
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    Post RFX - Redflow Limited

    This stock looks interesting...Redflow listed today, issue price of $1 raising 17.5 million, listing with 68 million shares and a cap of around 70 mill.

    They make zinc bromine battery's in Brisbane, now i only found out about zinc bromine battery's about 5 minutes ago so my first impressions are superficial and tainted buy a lack of in depth knowledge...but so far i like the idea of zinc bromine battery's, particularly there application in suburban evening peaks.

    There's potential for a hell of alot of these units to be deployed in a hell of alot of places...the wiki write up states a battery life of 2000 total discharges, 2000 divided by 365 = a battery life of around 5 and a half years.

    With power getting alot more valuable it makes alot of sense to be able to store it during the day for release in the evening peak...zinc bromine battery's could be a power game changer as they have the potential to change the cost structure of all power generation.

    I will most certainly watch this stock with interest.

    http://www.redflow.com.au/index.htm

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinc-bromine_flow_battery
    Statistics: 172 Closed Trades since July 07, Trades: Winners 135 - Losers 37, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.78

  2. #2

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Looks very interesting there Cyn, I'd be one to wait a while for some more solid results before buying in, if at all. I usually like new tech stories but closer to production/mass profits, even if the price is often higher. Had a look through their presentation, a bit too light on numbers as of yet, if they release one with expected profits etc (probably they don't even have the margins etc estimated accurately enough to bother making promises, good stuff, underpromise and over deliver).

    I also like the solar power angle, for some strange reason geothermal is being eschewed for solar and wind power production, and with these incapable of producing power 24/7, it'd be a good plan to use the batteries for periods of calm (for wind power) or cloud cover (for solar). However by that same angle, new energy technology is being invented all the time, and there's no guarantee that RedFlow will be one of the companies to make the change from inventor to profitable producer of the product.

    All that being said I've seen dodgier looking tech companies floated, with less detailed business plans and less promising tech. Might look the goods in a year or two but doesn't suit my investing style as of yet. All imo of course, and others will probably draw different conclusions.

    http://www.jochimaker.com/ - Blogging my trades and opinions.

  3. #3
    skc's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Just buy a small parcel of inconsequential amount, wait for the inevitable capital raising to acquire them at a lower price and in large quantities, hopefully at a time when there are enough positive news/evidences to suggest that they in fact have a business, rather than just a technology.

  4. #4
    The Contrarian Averager So_Cynical's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Great..hit a high of $1.44 today & closed up 15% or so, looks like im not the only punter seeing some potential.

    looks like ive missed the boat already.

    Quote Originally Posted by skc View Post
    Just buy a small parcel of inconsequential amount, wait for the inevitable capital raising to acquire them at a lower price and in large quantities, hopefully at a time when there are enough positive news/evidences to suggest that they in fact have a business, rather than just a technology.
    Good idea...and makes perfect sense.
    Statistics: 172 Closed Trades since July 07, Trades: Winners 135 - Losers 37, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.78

  5. #5

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    I've been interested in this company's progress for some time, following their website for news. They look like a genuine contender for market leadership in a market which is going to grow enormously in the next decade(s). I did get a small holding and will look to accumulate more if opportunity presents. Very difficult to know when that might happen with the small free float.

  6. #6

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Very happy with these guys. Bought in with some spare cash in the week after the Japanese disaster hit (sold Ux stocks on the Monday morning bell....)
    If their recent announcement r.e. selling a number of batteries to EnergyAustralia (now Ausgrid) for their Smartgrid program can translate into overseas orders for similar projects the sky is the limit. In fact their problem may well be how to manufacture fast enough. I note in a recent prospectus they talk about licensing out production to Asia (China I think), which I guess they need for the volume.
    The next few months will be very interesting as we see if their R&D dollars start to generate significant sales.

  7. #7

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    I've held these since Feb this year, and, true to form (as per what was alluded to earlier in this thread), they have had a capital raising since - but it fell well short, with just $842k raised out of a potential $4m under the SPP for the issue price of $1.00

    Their price seems to be in the doldrums a bit lately and their depth is shocking at the moment, but with this particular stock I am patient.

  8. #8

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    what's happening with this stock and company?

  9. #9
    Administrator Joe Blow's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Quote Originally Posted by vas77d View Post
    what's happening with this stock and company?
    In the last 24 hours you have made five posts in different stock threads asking the exact same question.

    How about you take a look at each company's recent announcements and its chart and offer your own thoughts?

    Don't expect others to do all the work for you.

  10. #10

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Yes too right, I hardly think bringing dogs to the top is contributing in any way.

  11. #11
    skc's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Quote Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
    Great..hit a high of $1.44 today & closed up 15% or so, looks like im not the only punter seeing some potential.

    looks like ive missed the boat already.
    Punters didn't like the restructure announcement... down to 22c today.

    Basically the company said that the customers are not ready to buy the products yet so RFX will be doing more paid or unpaid demonstration for the next 12-18 months, and had to let go half the people to preserve cashburn.

    On 31 Dec they had ~$12m in the bank. They go through $6m in the last half year so that's not a very long leash, esp without the prospect of substantial revenue income.
    Capital raising is clearly needed within 6-9 months.

    If their technology is actually any good they should seek out a cornerstone investor from potential customers with a future licencing deal. That would be a big endorsement for their future product and makes the capital raising easier.

    I have no idea if their technology is actually any good or anywhere near being commercialised, but a lack of capital can kill many good technology companies...

  12. #12
    The Contrarian Averager So_Cynical's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Quote Originally Posted by skc View Post
    Punters didn't like the restructure announcement... down to 22c today.
    Got smashed yesterday to and the day before the trading halt...16 months after listing and they are in real trouble, looks like yet another victim of the 2 decades to took to get a price on carbon.
    Statistics: 172 Closed Trades since July 07, Trades: Winners 135 - Losers 37, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.78

  13. #13
    skc's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow

    Quote Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
    Got smashed yesterday to and the day before the trading halt...16 months after listing and they are in real trouble, looks like yet another victim of the 2 decades to took to get a price on carbon.
    Nah... just that the technology/product is too young. People always assume commericalisation would be simple and straight forward, but the truth is that it usually takes 5x longer and costlier than your last plan, which was already 5x longer than the first plan...

  14. #14
    skc's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    Quote Originally Posted by skc View Post
    Just buy a small parcel of inconsequential amount, wait for the inevitable capital raising to acquire them at a lower price and in large quantities, hopefully at a time when there are enough positive news/evidences to suggest that they in fact have a business, rather than just a technology.
    Always interesting to read something from many years ago... the above back in 2010 when RFX first listed. In 2012 it had a brush with death and had to raise capital @ 6c. In June it raised again @ 11c but since 2014, it has announced a string of positive announcements - partnership agreements with potential end users.

    The share price has gone from $1 listed to a high of $1.20 shortly after, then a low of 7c. Today it's around 30c and a market cap of $80m.

    On hindsight there probably wasn't enough certainty at the 6c raising to go big... but the 11c raising was probably "supportable". The raising however was heavily scaled back.

    Not sure where to from here. The technological story is still there. The marketing story seems improved. The commercial realities are yet to emerge, however.

  15. #15

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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    An intense spike in volume today.

    Large Scale Storage System:
    http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01553844



    rfx.gif

  16. #16

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    Well yesterdays (Friday) volume wasn't as high as Thursdays (has shown in Burglars chart) but the price went up by 26% to close at 38 cents.

    It will be interesting to see where it goes from here!!

  17. #17
    The Contrarian Averager So_Cynical's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    Quote Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
    (14th-December-2010) This stock looks interesting
    Exactly 5 years later im in @ 0.24, timing is a heck of a thing this company has been through some hard times and good and now its time has come. With the growth of home solar and the positive outcome of COP 21 and a more sensible approach to governing by the federal government it's time for contrarian investors to dip the toe.

    Internode founder, NBN board member and all round smart guy Simon Hackett joined the Redflow board in August and has been out spruiking and generally making a lot of sense, video is a recent Q & A at the Future in Review get together, talking about the smart grid and how redflow product fits in perfectly and why they are such an important part of the energy super highway.
    ~
    Statistics: 172 Closed Trades since July 07, Trades: Winners 135 - Losers 37, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.78

  18. #18

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    So I'm looking to put a few $$ into this mob, but first want to put a few thoughts out there

    I can see these guys have a big future with the power generation companies, as in leasing / selling their batteries to utility companies as a way to smooth out demand and as a way for the power gen co's to store cheap power to offload at time of high prices.

    It's a lot quicker to send a command over the internet to ramp up supply than to bring in an overpaid shift at the coal fired power station to start feeding the furnace. (ie only make power at normal time rates)

    But... it's with the upcoming residential mum and dad power suppliers that has me a little bit concerned - ...
    The made in Australia has weight with the big supply companies - but IMO very little with the normal joe blow out there.

    Does REdFlow have any proprietary tech? what's to stop mister China Man Co. from bringing out a very cheap version of this product? Apart from the control electronics and inverter tech is there anything special about Redflow batteries other than the CEO's industry contacts??

    If China comes up with an industry standard for replaceable electrodes, and supplies these cheap why would the domestic market chose redflow over cheaper generic suppliers? Would Redflow be worth a 2K premium?

    What are peoples thoughts on Households selling power - is there enough money in it to warrant battery leasing deals for consumers / small suppliers?

    Still thinking, Too many questions meh.

  19. #19

    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    Just some more thoughts..

    Does Redflow have any software engineers on staff developing electricity distribution market software?

    Is Redflow a potential takeover target for a market software dev. company?

    Can anyone see in the near future a domestic (actively traded) electronic market for selling power?

    Cheers

  20. #20
    The Contrarian Averager So_Cynical's Avatar
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    Default Re: RFX - Redflow Limited

    Quote Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
    (15th-December-2015) Exactly 5 years later im in @ 0.24, timing is a heck of a thing
    Timing is a heck of a thing, i put some effort into it and get good results overall, RFX trading @ around the 40c level recently and looking strong, Z-Cell revealed today and getting a bit of media coverage and looking pretty cool.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-3...-tesla/7284518
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/busine...2c363adae6a6b5
    http://www.itwire.com/science-news/e...-home-use.html

    Simon Hackett on the other hand looking a little to casual, like a self made millionaire who just really dosent care.
    ~
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    Statistics: 172 Closed Trades since July 07, Trades: Winners 135 - Losers 37, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.78



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