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  1. #101

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Yeah disappointed by DTQ management seemed pretty honest so thought they were sandbagging the results especially since it was a recent IPO. The increase in receipts must have been improved cashflow management rather than increased revenue.

    Will proably keep the rest at this time until a better opportunity comes along, not enough liquidity today to offload it all without selling it off at a silly price. There is probably plenty of time to get on board if they are able to hire more ppl to man the rigs and would probaly need to wait until the half yearly for improved results unless they get their CSG rigs drilling very soon. I assume they would need to inspect them and ensure they function properly prior to moblising them so there is probably going to be a delay before they start earning revenue.

    Small grace was that I resisted temptation to increase my position when I saw the uptick today.

  2. #102
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    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by suhm View Post
    Yeah disappointed by DTQ management seemed pretty honest so thought they were sandbagging the results especially since it was a recent IPO. The increase in receipts must have been improved cashflow management rather than increased revenue.

    Will proably keep the rest at this time until a better opportunity comes along, not enough liquidity today to offload it all without selling it off at a silly price. There is probably plenty of time to get on board if they are able to hire more ppl to man the rigs and would probaly need to wait until the half yearly for improved results unless they get their CSG rigs drilling very soon. I assume they would need to inspect them and ensure they function properly prior to moblising them so there is probably going to be a delay before they start earning revenue.

    Small grace was that I resisted temptation to increase my position when I saw the uptick today.
    You rarely see a profit announcement that highlights the negatives before the positives. The tone was somewhat weird but I think they needed to pre-empt the market's question on what happened between AGM and end of half year.

    My position was small as I was pretty comfortable that I could still enter at a reasonable price after confirmation. Will probably hold for now and wiggle out of this only if there's substantial weakness in the market.

  3. #103

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Rest of DTQ sold at .155 bought at 0.14, not the largest % gain but pe of 7.5 is higher than I wish to pay for the stock will probably do well in the future though but will buy back later.

    Partially out of AZG in at 0.145 out at 0.20 results were confusing, I don't see how the company can sail so close to the wind financially. It probably will come good in the end and the numbers are getting better but its all a bit hard to understand for me.

  4. #104

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Post reporting season and a where are they now snapshot of previous trades.

    FGE- Out low 2s and mid 4s now 5.92. Forge group, mining services company with a good track record of delivering projects profitably but has tailed off this year. If they can integrate their new acquistion well it should get them to the next level of profitably. I am yet to understand how they have benefited from their partnership with CLO.
    Probably one I should have held onto longer term given the amount of capital gains I had on it, picked up most of my shares in the low 1s but comes with the territory of having to recycle capital.

    TBR - Out at mid 2s. Now 1.50. Gold producer I originally picked up due to the increase in the gold price and solid production history and close to - EV. In a solid down trend and what i feel is dodgy management but may be at -ve EV again. Wouldn't touch it until it breaks 1 and an upswing has started.

    CKK -Out at 0.165 and 0.11 now 0.017. I have a tendancy to like game changing technology and liked the mining services area. I still lost a fair whack and now warren strange is suing the company to get the drill rig back. Good exit all in all.

    IPX - Out at .14. Taken over at 30c. Op cashflow was going up but had a poor quarter so sold out. Again an area which I liked with the above game changing technology. Probably a bit before its time with people not realising how much it could decrease the capital intensity of their business and fixed expenses. It is one that I would have probably entered again if they had showed some improvement in the next quarter but again was recycling my capital.
    Still think it was a good exit as you can't always anticipate takeovers and it was a bit out of left field when it occured.

    COE- Out at .385 now 0.52. I was just frustrated with it. At the time it was nearly cash backed at that level for an oil and gas company but didn't seem to find any oil or gas except in the cooper basin which was a depleting field.

    CCV- out at low 80s now 0.615. This tanked much further when more legislation suggested that a major part of their business would need to be restrucctured, it also had a partial takeover offer at 0.91 which was then abandoned.

    MMS - out at high 8s now 9.97. Like FGE a good company which I sold to recycle capital. Subject to legislative risk but it'll be a few years before they go back to FBT rules but no longer on a low pe and had a poor report.

    MAD - Out at .20 now .73. Nothing much actually changed in the time from when I sold until now. It always had massive reserves and poor cashflow. I thought there would be a rerating when they released a reserves report hence my original purchase which did not arrive. The next time they released a reserve upgrade have a look at the chart and it went paraboli. My conclusion is I don't understand energy stocks.

    PBT - Out at .361 now .155. This must be my best timed exit ever. I still like the product but they are selling shares to fund their trials and results aren't out until at least the end of the year so plenty of time to get on before they are released.

    HOG - Out at low 40s and mid 10s. Now 0.20. Overall this was a loss for me. THey drilled a hole and found gas and then management went all funny regarding timing of building a gas plant and how much it would cost. They must also be the slowest to reach TD on the ASX. Its like 6months for them. The old guard (management) has come back and sparked a huge rally and technicals looking better. I don't think I will re-enter this one. The shale gas revolution has me thinking that energy is no longer the bees knees for the future.

    TXN - Out at 0.815 now 0.615. Good exit for me as stated previously the energy sector confuses me.

    ARDO - Out at an average of mid 4c now -0.033 if converted. Lost all my profit part way through the trade because they did a cap raising, the silver price started to tank as I entered my trade and had begun to dump my position because I couldn't afford to convert the oppies which were a 2c discount to the heads at the time but still ended up as quite a big win because of a newsletter pumping and dumping. Not my typical sort of trade and not one I would replicate soon.

    ZGL- Out at .585 now .21. Profit downgrades hurt hard in small cap land but I think this has potential in the future but a lot of punters will feel burnt from RM's spruiking.

    ROS - Not out but will be worthless. Lesson to self to not listen to hype.

    FAR- Out at 0.046 now 0.049. Good exit went down much further and was the straw that broke the camels back for me in terms of the energy sector. I am happy to leave the money to be made there to ppl with more expertise than me. MAD still makes me angry though as the release that made the sp go up was why I held the stock.

    STS- OUt at .675 now 0.91. Cigarette butt mining services company, probably better around but low PE has always attracted me. FOr some reason or another have never held this for long.

    DRX - Out at 0.091 now 0.074. Timetable for this keeps slipping and by the time they come into production i think the party will be over. GUN seemed to be closer to the mark.

    DRXO - Out at 0.014 now 0.013. As above I think it'll prove to be a good exit.

    For the rest it is probably to early to tell.

  5. #105

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Looking for some new stock ideas if you could post here or pm me stocks that would be appreciated.

  6. #106

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by suhm View Post
    Looking for some new stock ideas if you could post here or pm me stocks that would be appreciated.
    Have gone through the new admission list and this what I can suggest:

    HGO
    NXT
    BCI
    GCS
    MYE

    would also consider:

    ALK
    NDO

    Check out OBL and MEO but both have run hard to date.

    Hope this helps make you $$

  7. #107

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    KCN: Gold production is likely to almost double this quarter since the processing plant has 20% higher throughput than last quarter, and they will be mining higher grade ore. The SP is low and I am very confident, so I have an abnormally large position of about 28% of my portfolio. I am expecting a SP move at the end of the month after a very positive quarterly report.

    Plant throughput will be 6.0-6.2mtpa versus 5.1mtpa last quarter. Grade was 0.8g/t last quarter due to mining limitations due to flooding and government, both of those issues have been solved allowing the grade to probably move towards the mine average of 1.1g/t AUeq.

    They will be moving down the cost curve nearing the lower quartile, I think.

  8. #108

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by danbradster View Post
    KCN: Gold production is likely to almost double this quarter since the processing plant has 20% higher throughput than last quarter, and they will be mining higher grade ore. The SP is low and I am very confident, so I have an abnormally large position of about 28% of my portfolio. I am expecting a SP move at the end of the month after a very positive quarterly report.

    Plant throughput will be 6.0-6.2mtpa versus 5.1mtpa last quarter. Grade was 0.8g/t last quarter due to mining limitations due to flooding and government, both of those issues have been solved allowing the grade to probably move towards the mine average of 1.1g/t AUeq.

    They will be moving down the cost curve nearing the lower quartile, I think.
    I over-estimated. Chatree production increased by 50%. I'm still happy with that, but the SP is down urgh.

    I got a couple of nice trades in this week though luckily. That makes up some of the losses from last week. :P

  9. #109

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Well i've been a bit busy at work so unable to spend as much time on shares as I should. Most ideas have gone wrong as you can see from my track record so think I should sit out of the market for awhile and concentrate on my day job, hasn't been the easiest market for me to make money in for > 1 year and the volatility looks set to increase.

    BTA and IDM are the only positions I hold of any consequence being stronger conviction buys.

    Currently hold

    BTA, made what I think is a lousy deal to get listed on the nasdaq. Essentially a reverse takeover by NABI a cashbox post its failed phase 3 trial. Good news is that there will be new management and hopefully it gets taken out before the vote on the merger. The deal puts biota in play and a takeover offer with a scrip and cash option woud placate most holders. Will hold to NASDAQ if the merger goes through.

    IDM topped up with the cap raise and sold of options. Sales are a bit slower than I expected but with illuka reducing production to keep zircon prices stable, spherichrome should have a future as a zircon replacement or could be just used as normal chromite for an ok margin. Means they lose the cream though.

    GUN still hold a small amount

    UOS don't really see a point in selling, lots of cash and property and not a very large position either.

    AZG missed a profit target but still looks cheap, revenue is very hard to predict though.

    ROS but worthless

    Sold TAP at 0.775 post disappointing WA-351 drill results for a reasonable loss in around .9

    Tried for a swing trade on SRX based on newsletter spruiking in at 6.3 out at 6.14.

    Forced to sell a bit of BTA as moving to the NASDAQ as had to cover the equity when margin rates changed as a result of it being possibly delisted in the future. In at 0.925 out at 0.815

    Sold most of GUN as illuka is producing less zircon to maintain prices and there was a delay in the POSCO deal. The NPV still looks good but useless without project finance.
    In at 0.187 out at 0.167

  10. #110
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    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by suhm View Post
    IDM topped up with the cap raise and sold of options. Sales are a bit slower than I expected but with illuka reducing production to keep zircon prices stable, spherichrome should have a future as a zircon replacement or could be just used as normal chromite for an ok margin. Means they lose the cream though.
    Have you looked at MZI in this space?

  11. #111

    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Only briefly didn't like the small scale of the project and how they were going to fund expansion projects but looks like they may have found a partner so it may have some legs.

  12. #112
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    Default Re: Birds of a feather, let us flock together, share your portfolio ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by suhm View Post
    Only briefly didn't like the small scale of the project and how they were going to fund expansion projects but looks like they may have found a partner so it may have some legs.
    I thought the annonucement was a very big positive but the market is not seeing it that way (not yet anyway). Nothing wrong with waiting to buying in this market.

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