ANQ - AnaeCo Limited - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Post ANQ - AnaeCo Limited

    AnaeCo Limited (ANQ) is a waste management services company which focuses on its patented DiCOM technology; a solid waste conversion facility.


  2. #2

    Default Re: ANQ - AnaeCo

    Market Cap: ~$10m
    Current SP: $0.004
    Cash: current estimate ~$1m

    Waste Resource Recovery Technology.

    After a protracted period of many, many months, AnaeCo announced Tuesday morning "Biological Ramp-up Phase of Commissioning Completed". ANQ's patented DiCOM bioconversion process has met expectations and is fully proven. Preparations are now underway for commencement of performance trials.

    150714 - ANQ - Biological Ramp-Up Phase of Commissioning Completed.pdf

    AnaeCo have the following potential projects in the pipeline including:

    Waste facility for City of Shoalhaven. Council minutes confirm inclusion on Tender List.
    200,000 tonnes PA facility in SA
    Active dialogue with entities in China (Dynagreen), India (Brisanzia) and Iraq (Repindo).

    Monadelphous main shareholder with ~15% of shares



    • AnaeCo 2013 Investor Presentation
    • RM Research Analysis – AnaeCo – 1 Mar 2013
    • AnaeCo Annual Report 2013
    • AnaeCo Annual Report 2014
    • ASX Announcements

    Base Notes / Assumptions

    “AnaeCo’s main product is licensing and technology transfer of the DiCOM™ System. In our model we assume that for a typical project AnaeCo will receive a one-time payment of A$16M (company provides a range of A$15M – A$20M) in aggregate for Design & Commissioning fees, supply of the Process Control System and DiCOM™ Licensing fees (Fig.4). However, we believe first revenues could also come from execution of detailed feasibility studies (DFSs) as the company progresses its business development activities (i.e. MoUs, etc).”

    “We also include recurring profits in our model which AnaeCo will receive as royalties and technology support fees (we estimate A$5/tonne per annum).”

    “Down the road, management is also aiming to sell regional licenses for the DiCOM™ technology, thus building the local ecosystem in these regions required to develop local projects and thereby providing the necessary scale to increase the overall momentum of DiCOM adoption.”

    Annual Expenditure:

    • Indirects (Core Staff, etc): $2m
    • Directs (Project Delivery): $8m

    Shares on Issue: 2.56b

    P/E: 12 (personally I think it will much higher for this given the start-up phase of the Company, but I’d rather be conservative)

    ‘Typical’ Project is 50,000tpa Site (WMRC in Shenton Park is 55,000tpa)


    Current SP: 0.4c

    I’ve done valuations based on the number of ‘typical’ projects received each year:

    1 ‘typical’ project:

    Income: $16m, plus royalties of (50,000 * 1 * $5) = $16.25m.
    Costs: $2m + $8m = $10m.
    Net is $6.25m.
    Market Cap (MC): $75m ($6.25m x P/E of 12)

    Share Price (SP): 2.9c ($75m/2.56b shares)

    2 ‘typical’ projects:

    Income: $32m, plus royalties of (50,000 * 2 * $5) = $32.5m.
    Costs: $2m + (2*$8m) = $18m.
    Net is $14.5m.
    Market Cap (MC): $174m

    Share Price (SP): 6.8c

    3 ‘typical’ projects:

    Income: $48m, plus royalties of (50,000 * 3 * $5) = $48.75m.
    Costs: $2m + (3*$8m) = $26m.
    Net is $22.75m.
    Market Cap (MC): $273m

    Share Price (SP): 10.7c

    Please note I am not a financial advisor and nothing in my posts should be taken as financial advise. Please remember to always do your own research.



  3. #3

    Default Re: ANQ - AnaeCo

    I've bought a bunch of this couple years ago and as usual my timing has been pretty amazing

    Added a few million shares since on its way down - that's how you get rich, buying things for next to nothing :p

    some $180million has been invested into the company, it has been proven on a real-size prototype... so if it win a project or two, or lease its patent for certain modules... it's going to be very very sweet.

    Given the current recession, low oil prices and not too much concern about waste and green tech, the chances of a project or two seems remote next couple of years so earnings would not likely to be coming in.

    On a positive note, one that is purely speculative, is a potential takeover or privatisation. Either by Monadelphous or the Chinese company that's looking at Anaeco's books at the moment.

    Now that a trade company is looking at potentially buying off the debt owe to MND, paid by ANQ in equity... Given that MND own some 15% of ANQ... what will likely happen?

    One is the Chinese will just walk away and we're left holding a bunch of patents and no job.

    Two is the Chinese agree to take it all over.

    Three is the Chinese just buy the debt, become another major shareholder as the news release said they're doing.

    If the third option were to take place... what price will MND be happy with? This will set the floor to ANQ's stock price.

    Currently it's trading at $5 to $7M, or 0.002 to 0.003 cents per share.

    If you are MND and know the company as well as it has from the beginning... knowing that some $160 to $180M has been invested... what price would you be happy with? Probably more than $20 or $30M equivalent.

    Interesting next few months on this one.

    Again I own millions of the stuff

  4. #4

    Default Re: ANQ - AnaeCo

    China’s record waste deal is far from rubbish
    China’s biggest-ever German takeover is a far from rubbish deal. State-backed Beijing Enterprises is buying Energy from Waste (or EEW) for $1.6 billion. The Chinese conglomerate, an odd hybrid of utility and brewer, won a fierce contest to buy EEW, which collects and burns waste to make electricity, heat and steam. This deal comes amid a record blitz of foreign deals from China – but unlike some of the splashier examples, looks decently priced and makes obvious strategic sense.

    Including debt, the deal values EEW at 9.5 times EBITDA. That is not much more than the 9 times EBITDA that Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Infrastructure paid for a similar Dutch company in 2013, according to Reuters – and a lot more reasonable than, to take one example, the roughly 18 times EBITDA that Dalian Wanda recently paid for Ironman triathlons.

    Moreover, clean technology is in demand in China as President Xi Jinping looks to fix the country’s chronic pollution problem, which is as much about overflowing landfills as it is about ever-present smog. EEW’s expertise will give Beijing Enterprises an edge in converting rubbish into energy. It could perhaps make use of the low-cost green financing China is pushing too, via instruments like green bonds.

    The payoff will require patience. The value of trash varies from city to city, making it harder to find the more profitable markets in China. And while the industry is less competitive than in Europe, regulations are also less strictly enforced. So some firms just dump garbage rather than pay for it to be taken away. In the southern megacity of Shenzhen, an unauthorized landfill grew large enough to bury dozens of buildings when it collapsed in December. Enforcing the rules and changing bad habits will take time.

    The fact Beijing Enterprises beat other Chinese suitors, including China Tianying and Beijing Capital, shows it is not alone in trying to cash in on China’s green ambitions. Expect more trashy buys


  5. #5

    Default Re: ANQ - AnaeCo

    From Freighter's other Anaeco post regarding Nowra's proposed Resource Recovery Park (RRP), ANQ is among the three shortlisted to deliver RRP.

    SoilCo I browsed through their website and also their organic business. Seems they don't have the technology or are they in the business of providing a holistic recyling of municipal waste in one go. Their focus is mainly mulch and compost; their organic division seems to be for commercial/businesses like restaurants and it's one of those where the customer have to separate the organic waste themselves and bring it to them or they collect it separately. Not an ideal contender in my opinion.

    Global Renewables Australia is interesting. Could stand a chance against ANQ. But don't think it will.

    Its process is similar to Anaeco, though from the look of it its Anearobic and composting process will take longer than ANQ's 21 day cycle; it has a larger footprint compare to ANQ's relatively small modulised design that can be bulk onto existing transfer station. GRA divert 66% of waste from landfil compare to ANQ's 75%.

    Both separate plastics, paper, metals etc. for recycling and both produce composts. Though from memory I think ANQ's compost are of higher organic quality and can be use for farming as well as domestic gardens. GRA's seems more suitable for land and mine reclaimation.

    But assuming both are of equal quality, ANQ's system does not need further (outdoor) maturity period for composts. They just empty it out of the vat into a waiting truck and off it goes. Compares to GRA's maturity requirement... takes longer, need more space, and stink up the place - can't be close to cities.

    I could be bias and wishful of course. But I'd bet on ANQ.

    Interesting, and maybe proving me wrong, is that Palisade Partners funded ANQ's Shenton Park plant but in 2013 it also bought out GRA. This would explain why it did not chose ANQ as operator of its Shenton Park plant - it'll bring in its GRA crew and learn a thing or two from ANQ.

    This could mean Palisade see ANQ as a failure and want nothing to do with it... but could mean it could not buy out ANQ and so chose GRA instead.

    Either way, these two are now leading contender for Nowra's RRP. Decision on contractor is expected by council this May 2016.

    ANQ is also the only selected contractor for a proposed RRP in Adelaide. The potential client there has lodged a DA late last year.

    Interesting time ahead.

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