SRX - Sirtex Medical

[GreatPig]

Currently forming a triangle. As I hold, I'm hoping for an eventual top-side breakout

Cheers,
GP

[DBking]

Hi,

I have been noticing a bit of a trend on the SRX stock. Its called Sirtex, they deal in state of the art liver cancer cures. They have been fluctuating between $2 and $2.25. Does anyone know anything else about them? Are they over priced? Could a big price drop, or even price spike be on the cards?

How do people see this share reacting over the next 6 months. They seem to have had a **** 18 months with a new c.e.o but reading reports, long terms looks very good with solid plans and goals in place.

[Buy low, sell high]

Does anyone know the story behind the split in directors?

[theasxgorilla]

Does anyone know the story behind the split in directors?

I'd be interested to know the drivers for what has been happening on the board as well. Regardless, the company founder Bruce Gray is off the board.

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-...m-Sirtex-board

Does the untidy web of legal proceedings surrounding this company make it a poor risk at the moment? With Gray gone I think things just got a bit neater...but the UoWA claim that they are the "rightful" owners of the Sirtex IP (presumably the liver cancer "treatment") is my biggest a concern right now.

[spooly74]

Ann out regarding clinical trials.

Loooks very promising.

"While acknowledging the small sample size, the investigators concluded that the combination treatment was generally well-tolerated by the patient group, and noted that the lack of liver toxicity was encouraging for the clinical advancement of a multimodality treatment approach.

They also concluded that the patient outcomes are impressive when compared to equivalent statistics for FOLFOX4 chemotherapy alone, in this patient group.

Of the 20 patients in the study, 18 (90%) showed a decrease in the tumour size by at least 30 per cent according to RECIST4 criteria and two patients (10%) had stabilisation of their disease.
The tumours decreased in size sufficiently in two patients (10%) to enable their remaining liver
tumours to be removed by surgery"

[CAFA1234]

So, with $4m coming back from the court case - that puts their last years profits at about $5/6m, add in the $2m lost on currency (God knows how, but one assumes it was a one off event), and you have about $7/8m.

It would appear that they were operating at near capacity (from the reactor at Lucas Heights) and with such a short half-life it was always going to be difficult servicing the US market. Do you know how difficult it is to fly radioactive material into the US these days?

Now that Wilmington is fully operational and is capable of increasing capacity by some 200/300% it will be interesting to see the first set of results that include the new facilities. Should dramatically improve the bottom line, as production and delivery costs are much lower and they are able to service the US market in a more timely fashion.

Note - I hold a long term position and continue to accumulate on the lows.

[CAFA1234]

So, with $4m coming back from the court case - that puts their last years profits at about $5/6m, add in the $2m lost on currency (God knows how, but one assumes it was a one off event), and you have about $7/8m.

It would appear that they were operating at near capacity (from the reactor at Lucas Heights) and with such a short half-life it was always going to be difficult servicing the US market. Do you know how difficult it is to fly radioactive material into the US these days?

Now that Wilmington is fully operational and is capable of increasing capacity by some 200/300% it will be interesting to see the first set of results that include the new facilities. Should dramatically improve the bottom line, as production and delivery costs are much lower and they are able to service the US market in a more timely fashion.

Note - I hold a long term position and continue to accumulate on the lows.

Clearly no interest in SRX these days - not a miner of course!

However with the appeal not against SRX and their costs relatively safe and all sorts of interesting news (there must be a return of all their R&D expenditure) I still think this share is going places over the next couple of years.

Last quarter was a disappointment, but now that management time can be focused on making a good business rather than fighting a 3 years legal / court case I'm expecting a lot.

Get to it Sirtex staff and lift the share price so all your options are in the big money - you deserve every $.

[Solarfuture]

I belive SRX will have a great QTR. With a weaker AUD I expect great margins this Qtr. Hopefully we bounce back to $5

[Solarfuture]

Sirtex in the News.
Microspheres Cancer Therapy Improves Survival Rate
http://wbztv.com/local/microspheres.....2.913364.html

Also Video Hunter Hall on Sirtex.
http://www.hunterhall.com.au/videoPl...TB_iframe=true

[studmuffin]

More Sirtex in the news
http://www.genengnews.com/news/bnite...1684463&chid=4

On CNN economic report 25th March
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM4QmOQP9QI

[suhm]

I thought I'd give an update on this stock, its just announced its first div, 7c fully franked 2c ordinary and 5c special. Its also reached an all time high.

EPS was 32.7 but with a large Fx gain. Profits will be hit with the increase in AUSD vs the USD but at least this biotech share is profitable and paying dividends (besides COH, BTA and CSL there aren't that many that can say that) and has no debt and good operating cashflow. If anyone knows anymore let us know.

Unit sales are only starting to increase <4k a year and at present being used as a salvage treatment for metastatic liver cancer. Big opportunities would be for it to be used in HCC mostly asian countries with Hep B or in IV drug users with Hep C and as a primary treatment for liver mets. Its a once off treatment at $US 10k a treatment adding operating fees it could meet QALY targets if it increased median survival by about 6 months, seems to be quite well tolerated but is a surgical procedure which would be delaying uptake as the medicos would need to be convinced to use it and then they need to learn how to do the procedure.

Disclaimer I hold.

Edit- With regards to the procedure it shouldn't be that hard, catheter up the fem artery and chemoembolisation is a fairly common procedure. This just uses radioactive spheres.

[Bowlane]

Anyone have a reason for the substantial drop 22nd Jan and today? Broker's changed recommendation?
Disc: don't hold, but have been watching, and asking myself why didn't I buy last May!

[adhitya]

Anyone have a reason for the substantial drop 22nd Jan and today? Broker's changed recommendation?
Disc: don't hold, but have been watching, and asking myself why didn't I buy last May!

Yeah agree... Someone seems to know something that public didnt. Checked the morningstar recommendation on SRX; they just upgraded the fair value to aud 7.2 from 6.9 on the back of February announcement of 2Q11 sales volumes growth of 17.2%...
The announcement doesnt seems to provide a leg to a share weakness which went down to 5.46 on Friday closing.

I've been following SRX as well so I tought this could be: (1) volume increase doesnt translate to profits (2) detriemental forex impact to profits (3) Bruce Gray continually to reduce his ownership (i.e. this explained Dec weakness)

If no. 3 is the case, we just has to ask whether this is to balance his portfolio or his court battle with SRX or he knew something that we dont (i.e. defect on product trial)...
If there is an unkown issue with product trial it would spell the end of the premium pricing for SRX.

[robusta]

Picked up some SRX today, broke one of my rules the price I paid is a bit above my calculation of IV but the IV in the future is rising at a decent clip.

[craft]

Dosage sales starting to accelerate.

Information flow from trials building and major reporting expected by 2014.

Potential revenue of 1 Billion+ If the trials result in Sir Spheres moving up the treatment chain.

Intellectual property tested and successfully defended in court.

Gross Margins of over 80%

Even at these early sale volumes the company can fund all its trials, marketing, research, distribution channel and manufacturing plant growth and still pay out dividends plus have 50 Million cash on hand. A small Bio paying its way – there’s a novel idea.

The reduction in trial expenses and leveraging the fixed costs through greater sales volume is going to see the net margin grow over time.

In my view (disclosure – I have held for some years) this has got to be one of the most exciting companies listed on our exchange and yet even as it makes all time market highs it get very little attention here. [obviously not as interesting as a hole in the ground]

I just hope it remains impendent from the big international pharma’s long enough to realise its potential as an Australian success story.

[craft]

Dosage sales starting to accelerate.

Todays Announcement

37 Per Cent Dose Sales Growth in First Quarter

Sirtex has now reported 33 consecutive quarters of sales growth.

A huge market, Information flow from trials building, Dose sales growth accelerating, 80% Gross Margin..........

No Interest on ASF

[McLovin]

Do I understand this correctly, these guys at the moment are only being used as a sort of last resort, once everything else has failed? The purpose of the continuing trials is to have a larger sample size so that the case can be built to use them as a frontline treatment?

The numbers are very impressive, no doubt.

[skc]

Lol tried to buy these on open and managed to get a fill for a grand total of 25 shares at $9.27. Didn't want to reach up and grab the rest at $9.33.

Sold my 25 shares at $10.11. Just enough to pay for a burger

What's that saying about "Don't be a dick for a tick"

[craft]

Do I understand this correctly, these guys at the moment are only being used as a sort of last resort, once everything else has failed? The purpose of the continuing trials is to have a larger sample size so that the case can be built to use them as a frontline treatment?

The numbers are very impressive, no doubt.

This is a good introduction to the SRX investment case.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9HA4DaVtls

[Vesupria]

This is probably in the top-tier of investment grade companies listed on the ASX. The problem is I don't 100% understand it, which means I have never been able to value it. Which is dangerous in my mind when talking about companies that trade on high earnings multiples. Unfortunately I thought the same thing at $5.50 and will probably think the same thing if it gets to $30.00.