I think today it opened at $0.75 so my original sell order got skipped. That's the highest point at which I could have sold. I see what you mean though, but I like to start thinking clearer before I make a buying or selling decision. Maybe that is wrong, but it feels more natural to my mind.
The short answer is (as I see it technically) Low risk good reward.
But this is what I see.
Click to expand.
Is that the control bar (ala the TGA discussion we had)?
The current control bar is Today's bar.
Its actually a Volume Control Bar.
Its zone of influence is the length of the range of the bar.
It will take a great deal of effort to trade out of the range and
the range will for some time attract price back to it if there is
little demand. It is within this bar that buying is seen to absorb
and indeed overcome supply.---currently---and until this changes
from a technical view that's what I trade from and expect.
The Impulse bar is also a volume control bar and has a zone of influence of its range.
I would expect supply to come in in its range.
Thats why this stock will have a hard time breaking out of a range.
My trade is at the highest extremes of the expected ranging (I dont expect a prolonged trend!)
The highest probability in all honesty is a small profit as I get bored waiting for buyers
to exhaust supply! But as I say tomorrow will tell a lot.
The best to expect would be an average to low volume up day.
Next a high volume small range day finishing up on its high.
Worst high volume Up and down day finishing down.
OR High volume down day wide range finishing on the low.
I'm going for an average volume Inside day. Basically a non event
which will tell me a lot!!---go figure that one--
(hint see the last spike low test in the chart and the inside day that followed!!).
This may help a little
Click to expand
I could be wrong - but is there a gap on the chart in the last few days in the low 80s?
edit: I also forgot to mention that I liked how you are looking the previous significant yearly low (the bar you marked at with the low at $0.73)
Yesterday was also a control bar to the down side due to the gap and it's volume.
Today because of it's very high volume is the. Latest control bar.
Both are so strong that I'll be a rubber duckif it doesn't range for quite a while.
Obviously a break above or below will be significant.
I agree that these kind of actions are pretty reliable.
I don't know much about the technical details. I just know them as blow off lows. Where there is a capitulation of selling after a period of themed fear leading to a kind of conclusion that confirms all the fear then suddenly those awaiting value jump in and the dramatic capitulation reverses on strong volume.
A bit like WHC on 24th Aug and KAR on the 26 July both of which I bought into once I saw the reversal. That's all I can say about it. There usually gems. I would of been happy to jump in on this at 1.70 if I wasn't a bit over committed elsewhere at present!
Forgive me I'm dyslexic.
It appears to me that you have concluded that your investment thesis for ASZ has failed – yet it appears that you still hold.
It also appears now that you are adopting a technical basis to justify your exposure.
Regardless of the merits of the TA approach - Would you have bought ASZ today based on the technical basis you are using to justify holding on?
Know your own game plan. No game plan works every time. If you want to be around for the long haul, learn to be a good loser.
If you can’t take your fundamental exit, what makes you think you will take the technical exit?
Perhaps you will get a better exit by finessing now that there has been a short term capitulation. However that will be a good outcome from a bad decision – You had a chance to get out on the open before the capitulation occurred - Under an ‘alternative history’ no capitulation may have occurred today. I know you would like to minimise your loss but I think if you are lucky you will get a bad return from your bad decision, nothing is more corrosive to learning then positive feedback from bad decisions.
Sooner or later getting out quickly, once your investment plan has failed will save you a fortune. Finessing the exit is like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.
Last edited by craft; 28th-August-2012 at 11:54 PM.
Are you out yet? Or is there another justification for holding now?
This is the first fundamental exit that I had to make, and whilst I was more hesitant to sell than I thought I would be, I thought I did pretty well - I read the report as intended and made my own decision, rather than trying to rush on the first day. I will know what to expect psychologically (to an extent) next time I need to pull the trigger and some things I can do (sell at-market) to minimise any conflicting thoughts. I lost 5% more than I should have in reality, but losing 15% all up is far worse than a fate than holding a company without longer having an investment thesis, as you mentioned. I thnk my original position sizing was pretty good too. I only ever had 3076 shares in this company. It's peanuts.
Not sure why boggo seems to think I have lost more than half of my money...
If your volume is not going to move the market significantly then go at market every time for exits and do it the second you realise you are wrong.
meaning the stock as displayed on the associated weekly chart....why anyone would be holding on in hope to something that has halved in value.
I am sitting in a hotel room at the moment with only 20 min delayed data but ASZ seems to be maintaining the down trend.
Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes