IOF - Investa Office Fund

[nulla nulla]

Nice rally from iof today. Jumped from $0.61 on open to test $0.625. Made me wonder whether punters have forgotten that iof no longer does quarterly distributions having elected in December 2011 to only do half yearly distributions (this is the week in which iof would normally advise the 1st quarter distribution).

iof 2012-03-19.png

The report out today provided an update on the reconstruction (unloading of European and U.S.A assets and buying further quality Australian assets). The NTA after the buy back is now $0.79cpu. If it can break through the resistance at $0.625 there is no reason it can't go above $0.645 and close the gap between the share price and the nta. The chart looks like it is due for a bounce. As always dyor.

[nulla nulla]

Since the share consolidation, IOF has been trading in a higher price bracket. Not sure if this is a reflection of interest from the funds that it is alleged only trade in shares above $2.00 as a matter of policy or if it is a reflection of improved general interest in Australian REIT's.

iof 2012-06-08.png

At any rate it is continuing to provide a regular short term trade-able price spread for those interests. As always, d.y.o.r.

[nulla nulla]

With a tight recent trading band between $2.64 and $2.69, it makes it very hard to trade IOF at the moment. While it appears there is a $0.05c spread, unless you are waiting in the buy/sell queue and there is enough momentum to take out your bid/ask you are likely to be restricted to an even tighter band of $2.65 to $2.68. A return of $0.03.

A return this low(around 1%) can be viable if traded successfully often enough over an extended period but when risk/return is factored, in, the prevailing market sentiment suggest to me that there are better opportunities else where for now.

iof 2012-06-14.png

Better to keep it on the watch-list for later perhaps As always, do your own research and good luck.

[nulla nulla]

This is a system of rolling over the same capital in the same share I tried in IOF, in our SMSF account, where I tried to re-invested the capital from the previous exit buying slightly more shares each time.

Date	Buy/Sell	Shares	Price	Brokerage	Cost/Return	Gain/Loss	%
30/07/10	Buy	60,000	$0.60	$43.56	$36,343.56
04/08/10	Sell	60,000	$0.63	$45.36	$37,754.64	$1,1411.08	3.88%
09/08/10	Buy	63,000	$0.60	$45.36	$37,845.36
10/08/10	Sell	63,000	$0.625	$47.25	$39,327.75	$1,482.39
16/08/10	Buy	65,500	$0.60	$47.16	$39,347.16
18/08/10	Sell	65,500	$0.62	$48.73	$40,561.27	$1,214.11	3.09%
25/08/10	Buy	67,500	$0.60	$48.60	$40,548.60
03/09/10	Sell	67,500	$0.625	$50.62	$42,136.88	$1,588.28	3.92%
24/09/10	Buy	70,000	$0.60	$42.00	$42,042.00
28/10/10	Sell	70,000	$0.625	$43.75	$43,706.25	$1,664.25	3.96%
Initial buy					$36,343.56
Final Return					$43,705.25	$7,360.11	20.25%

Unfortunately I invested the SMSF funds in other shares after the last exit and did not keep the exercise going. We continued to trade IOF up until the consolidation and have it on our watch list going forward.

The individual trades on their own are relatively small gains but over a three month period provided a return of 20.25% in 3 months.

[nulla nulla]

Testing Loading a table

Date	Buy/Sell	Shares	Price	Brokerage	Cost/Return	Gain/Loss	%
30/07/10	Buy	60,000	$0.60	$43.56	$36,343.56
04/08/10	Sell	60,000	$0.63	$45.36	$37,754.64	$1,411.08	3.88%
09/08/10	Buy	63,000	$0.60	$45.36	$37,845.36
10/08/10	Sell	63,000	$0.625	$47.25	$39,327.75	$1,482.39	3.92%
16/08/10	Buy	65,500	$0.60	$47.16	$39,347.16
18/08/10	Sell	65,500	$0.62	$48.73	$40,561.27	$1,214.11	3.09%
25/08/10	Buy	67,500	$0.60	$48.60	$40,548.60
03/09/10	Sell	67,500	$0.625	$50.62	$42,136.88	$1,588.28	3.92%
24/09/10	Buy	70,000	$0.60	$42.00	$42,042.00
28/10/10	Sell	70,000	$0.625	$43.75	$43,706.25	$1,664.25	3.96%
Initial buy					$36,343.56
Final Return					$43,705.25	$7,360.11	20.25%

Testing loading a table

Eureka!!! It works

[nulla nulla]

Okay, I couldn't help myself. I took an entry at $2.64 on Wednesday on the basis if I did not achieve an exit at $2.69 by Friday I would hold for the $0.097 div and wait to exit when it recovers from the Ex-div fall. On Thursday when it looked like opening at $2.59 - $2.60, I threw a bid in the queue at $2.62 just before the close of the opening auction. Unfortunately a lot of other bidders saw the action and the opening price raced up to $2.62 leaving me at the back of the queue. Bugger.

iof 2012-06-22.png

Then to top it off, when I went to exit at $2.70 in the Friday afternoon price spike, the missus (she who must be obeyed) said "why would you take a $0.06 profit (less brokerage) when you can do the combo, Div $0.097 and possible capital gain by selling early next week?"

I think I know what the American Democrat President feels like with a Republican controlled Congress. (see XAO stock banter thread) . I'll just have to let the capital ride out the ex-div fall and look for an exit on the first spike above $2.65. As always d.y.o.r.

[nulla nulla]

Got the div and put an exit in for $2.65, partial sell on Monday with the rest getting snapped up on Wednesday as the share price rocketed back up. Then on Friday the share price ripped back up to $2.71 arround midday?

iof 2012-06-29.png

Any one would be excused for thinking it had not gone exdiv with a $0.097 div. Go figure. I will continue to monitor it for a tradeable pattern to emerge before going again.

[nulla nulla]

Is $2.70 - $2.77 the new trading range or is it too early to call still?

iof 2012-07-13.png

I might continue to sit this one out for the time being until I'm more confident of where it is going. D.Y.O.R. and good luck.

[nulla nulla]

Well IOF became popular as the market sentiment shifted to those shares, like Australian REIT's, that have a yield better than bank rates. The share price took off working its' way up to $2.99 before falling back to find a support level arround $2.83. However, Fridays close was a worry to me. The share was tracking through the day in a tight band mostly arround $2.85 - $2.86 when it dropped, in the run up to the close, to $2.83 and stayed there on smallish turnover in the auction. To me, the chart suggests there is a pennant forming with a possible break out below $2.83 comming?

iof 2012-08-24.png

The report is due out and it appears that the market may not be confident that it will be a good one? Time will tell. As always d.y.o.r and good luck. .

[herzy]

Hey Nulla Nulla - fascinating read, and congratulations on your excellent returns! Seems like a great stock to follow. I have one question - How did it go from NTA of .79 and sp of ~60-65, to $2.80 odd??

Will follow with interest, I comment more to encourage and thank you than because I have much to add (not being a trader). Still, seems like a fairly simple and effective strategy (pay attention to a trading band, buy low, sell high).

[nulla nulla]

Hey Nulla Nulla - fascinating read, and congratulations on your excellent returns! Seems like a great stock to follow. I have one question - How did it go from NTA of .79 and sp of ~60-65, to $2.80 odd??

From memory, at the last AGM, the share was consolidated 4 to 1. There are some funds that have a policy of not investing in shares with a value under a pre determined point such as $2.00 or $1.00. In theory, by consolidating the shares, the REIT's attract large funds to their share registry and hopefully improve the share price. Seems to have worked for iof.

[nulla nulla]

On Friday IOF took an unexpected downward plunge (for me at any rate) during the later part of the day. I don't know what drove the fall. It seems excessive in respect of the rises experienced since the consolidation. While the recent report wasn't the greatest, the future isn't totaly negative and the balance between the yield, p/e ratio and discount to nta still makes iof a reasonably attractive proposition going forward.

iof 2012-08-31.png

Of course this amounts to nothing when the market sentiment turns negative. Strap on the seat belts we may be in for a bumpy ride. As always, d.y.o.r. .

[nulla nulla]

Stellar week for iof. Opened on Monday at $2.83, dipped to $2.81 then rallied to close the day at $2.88. For Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday iof opened higher but drifted lower through the day although the lows were getting higher. Friday saw a higher open at $2.91 with a tightly held turnover before closing at $2.93 a high for the week. All-in-all iof closed out the week up $0.10.

iof 2012-09-07.png

The chart looks good and the gap on nta continues to narrow. The reliable yield continues to encourage the dividend investors and the low debt to equity ratio encourages the big players to hang in there. The risks appear lower and the rewards higher for long term holders. The day to day spread also offers posibilites for short term traders.

As always d.y.o.r and good luck.

[nulla nulla]

For much of August IOF found support at $2.83 and resistance at $2.90, then it broke above $2.90 and tested $3.00 (interday 12/9/12). This is the second time iof has tested $3.00 in the past 2-3 months..

iof 2012-09-28.png

IOF has been drifting back down over the past few weeks but appears to be finding support at the $2.89 level (although it did test $2.86 on thursday). It will be interesting to see if IOF can rally again from here or if it continues the drift down to the previous support level of $2.83.

[nulla nulla]

I found an interesting table in the IOF report for 25 September 2012. It is a list of the top 20 share holders for IOF as at 31 August 2012.

Rank	Name	31 August 2012	%
1	HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED	170,053,311	27.69%
2	J P MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED	111,790,172	18.21%
3	NATIONAL NOMINEES LIMITED	83,581,598	13.61%
4	CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	22,883,254	3.73%
5	CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	21,373,982	3.48%
6	INVESTA LISTED FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED	17,054,708	2.78%
7	JP MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED	15,238,362	2.48%
8	BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD	8,955,190	1.46%
9	RBC INVESTOR SERVICES AUSTRALIA NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	8,793,314	1.43%
10	AMP LIFE LIMITED	8,491,242	1.38%
11	EQUITY TRUSTEES LIMITED	6,999,085	1.14%
12	BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD	6,709,469	1.09%
13	QUESTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED	6,204,481	1.01%
14	SHARE DIRECT NOMINEES PTY LTD	5,230,045	0.85%
15	RBC INVESTOR SERVICES AUSTRALIA NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	3,104,150	0.51%
16	BOND STREET CUSTODIANS LIMITED	2,837,793	0.46%
17	BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD	2,533,024	0.41%
18	AVANTEOS INVESTMENTS LIMITED	2,001,009	0.33%
19	BOND STREET CUSTODIANS LIMITED	1,768,668	0.29%
20	RBC INVESTOR SERVICES AUSTRALIA NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	1,598,691	0.26%
TOTAL		507,201,748	82.60%
Balance of Register		106,845,710	17.40%
Grand TOTAL		614,047,458	100.00%

I thought it made for interesting reading. More than 50% of the shares are held by three shareholders, 80% of the shares are held by 20 shareholders and only three (3) shareholders have substantial holdings (more than 5%). It is not really surprising that IOF has been trading relatively low volumes recently.

iof 2012-10-26.png

The chart shows the current strength of IOF in recent weeks, the share price being pushed over the $3.00 mark to $3.04 interday Friday 26-10-12 on comparatively low volumes. Watching with interest. As always d.y.o.r.

[nulla nulla]

On closer inspection it seems that the top 20 shareholders controlling more than 80% of the shares are in fact the top 13 share holders with 5 shareholders controlling two or more seperate holdings each. The top three (3) shareholders control more than 60% of issued shares. Probably some for themselves and some as nominees or custodians for their clients.

8	BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD	8,955,190	1.46%
12	BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD	6,709,469	1.09%
17	BNP PARIBAS NOMS PTY LTD	2,533,024	0.41%
			2.96%
16	BOND STREET CUSTODIANS LIMITED	2,837,793	0.46%
19	BOND STREET CUSTODIANS LIMITED	1,768,668	0.29%
			0.75%
4	CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	22,883,254	3.73%
5	CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	21,373,982	3.48%
			7.21%
2	J P MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED	111,790,172	18.21%
7	JP MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED	15,238,362	2.48%
			20.69%
9	RBC INVESTOR SERVICES AUSTRALIA NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	8,793,314	1.43%
15	RBC INVESTOR SERVICES AUSTRALIA NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	3,104,150	0.51%
20	RBC INVESTOR SERVICES AUSTRALIA NOMINEES PTY LIMITED	1,598,691	0.26%
			2.20%

Their influence on the voting at the AGM would be hard for the board of directors to ignore. Also anyone interested in making a take-over play would only have to get the top three shareholders on side. Done deal.

[nulla nulla]

Ouch.

Huge pull back today in the post Obama Presidential election win. Way more than I expected considering there is a tidy little December dividend looming (payable in February 2013).

iof 2012-11-08.png

I'm in. What would I know? As always d.y.o.r. If I do my bundle you'll know about it down the road. I'll be the bloke selling biro's that don't work, outside of Wynyard Station in Sydney.

[Out Too Soon]

Seems to be on the mend after the "ouch!" bounced off 2.81 which seems to be the lower limit for now.
iof_ax25may12_to_25nov12.png
Fingers crossed

[nulla nulla]

Held at $2.81 but encountering resistance at $2.87. Volumes of turnover are fairly low recently, so it doesn't appear that there is a mad panic on to get out or that any large hedge funds a running a short exercise.

I'm still in, but if anyone wants to supliment my income drop by Wynyard Station and buy some biro's. . if I had some spare $ I would have topped up at $2.82 to reduce my average to $2.87. Such is life.

[nulla nulla]

What a difference a day makes. Quit the job selling biro's. Thanks everyone for your support, I sold enough to cover a big mack and some fries for lunch.

Today the market rose a few points and the buyers came out of the woodwork for the reit's. IOF opened at $2.88 then climbed through the day to close on the high of $2.91. Up $0.07 or 2.46% on Fridays close. Still oversold, in my opinion, however there is no guarantee that todays rebound is nothing more than the old "dead cat" bounce. As always d.y.o.r and good luck.