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  1. #1

    Default A-REIT valuation model

    Does anyone have an excel-based A-REIT valuation model or know where I can lay my hands on one?

    Much appreciated if anyone does.

    Cheers B'man

  2. #2
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    REIT Table 18 June 2012

    Share Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Price/Assets
    Australand Property ALZ 2.54 1,465,190,356 0.244 0.215 8.46 10.41 3.46 -27%
    BWP Trust BWP 1.95 1,024,247,431 0.1136 0.1463 7.5 17.17 1.87 4%
    CFS Retail Trust CFX 1.94 5,499,952,289 0.1347 0.129 6.65 14.4 2.06 -6%
    Charter Hall CHC 2.33 691,651,704 0.0849 0.176 7.55 27.44 2.19 6%
    Cromwell CMW 0.71 830,478,150 0.057 0.07 9.86 12.46 0.68 4%
    Commonwealth Office CPA 1.005 2,358,738,470 0.0843 0.0564 5.61 11.92 1.13 -11%
    Charter Hall Retail CQR 3.45 1,033,718,570 0.1128 0.261 7.57 30.59 3.43 1%
    Dexus DXS 0.93 4,500,292,484 0.0836 0.0526 5.66 11.12 1.01 -8%
    Goodman Group GMG 3.57 5,531,900,354 0.2505 0.19 5.32 14.25 2.5 43%
    GPT Group GPT 3.2 5,681,907,837 0.1629 0.18 5.69 19.64 3.59 -11%
    Investra Office IOF 2.68 1,645,647,187 0.3016 0.117 4.37 8.89 3.16 -15%
    Mirvac Group MGR 1.275 4,358,251,863 0.1094 0.082 6.43 11.65 1.63 -22%
    Stockland Property SGP 3.28 7,240,640,849 0.269 0.239 7.29 12.19 3.69 -11%
    Westfield WDC 9.45 21,428,853,113 0.6655 0.484 5.12 14.2 7.27 30%
    Westfield Retail WRT 2.74 8,521,123,684 0.0396 0.165 5.91 8.73 3.26 -14%


    Comparison of Earnings, dividends, yield, p/e, nta etc. All figures are taken from comsec iress and no guarantees are given as to accuracy. Always do your own research/homework etc.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  3. #3

    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Hi Nulla Nulla,

    I see from other threads you regularly trade the REITs. Would you mind sharing why you like to trade REITs? I have been playing around with the idea of trading large caps with the aim of gaining a few percent here and a few percent there. Obviously over the course of a year this compounds into a nice return. My holding time frame would be weeks not months.

    Cheers

    Oddson.

  4. #4
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Regular oportunity mainly. Fundamentaly, these days, they are fairly sound with most of them trading at discounts to NTA. Also most of them have significantly reduced their borrowings so their debt to equity ratios are quite low.

    Their yields are relatively low these days, but they don't rely on borrowings to pay inflated dividends which they did in the past. Most of them have been tracking sideways in tight ranges since June 2009. Most of them have poured additional income back into "share Buy backs in an attempt to reduce the volume of shares on issue. This is intended to narrow the gap between the share price and nta. I suspect it could increase the gaps personally as the market is likely driven more by the p/e ratios.

    They regularly go up and down providing entry/exit oportunities. Regular smal profits have a cumulative effect. They could collapse at any time, so there is always risk. You still need to research them yourself and understand what factors are impacting on them and the likely outcomes.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  5. #5
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Testing the auto save function.

    Results: Pass
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  6. #6
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Update as at 17/8/12.


    Share Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    Australand Property ALZ 2.980 1,719,002,859 0.2520 0.2150 7.21% 11.83 3.46 13.87%
    BWP Trust BWP 1.965 1,032,126,258 0.1340 0.1350 6.87% 14.66 1.85 -6.22%
    CFS Retail Trust CFX 1.975 5,586,278,927 0.1347 0.1310 6.63% 14.66 2.06 4.13%
    Charter Hall CHC 2.450 730,496,001 0.0849 0.1820 7.43% 28.86 2.19 -11.87%
    Cromwell CMW 0.740 865,569,818 0.0570 0.0700 9.46% 12.98 0.68 -8.82%
    Commonwealth Office CPA 1.075 2,523,028,669 0.0843 0.0609 5.67% 12.75 1.13 4.87%
    Charter Hall Retail CQR 3.510 1,051,696,284 0.1128 0.2610 7.44% 31.12 3.43 -2.33%
    Dexus DXS 0.965 4,669,658,330 0.0375 0.0535 5.54% 25.73 1.00 3.50%
    Goodman Group GMG 3.950 6,340,174,526 0.2704 0.1800 4.56% 14.61 2.54 -55.51%
    GPT Group GPT 3.540 6,254,419,166 0.1789 0.1880 5.31% 19.79 3.65 3.01%
    Investra Office IOF 2.880 1,768,456,679 0.3016 0.1560 5.42% 9.55 3.16 8.86%
    Mirvac Group MGR 1.365 4,671,237,301 0.1094 0.0840 6.15% 12.48 1.63 16.26%
    Stockland Property SGP 3.220 7,095,422,074 0.2110 0.2400 7.45% 15.26 3.68 12.50%
    Westfield WDC 9.880 22,333,794,735 0.7322 0.4895 4.95% 13.49 6.79 -45.51%
    Westfield Retail WRT 2.970 9,070,873,599 0.2690 0.1765 5.94% 11.04 3.37 11.87%


    Do your own research as figures given above may not be reliable.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  7. #7
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Sorted by highest capital to lowest:

    Share Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    Westfield WDC 9.880 22,333,794,735 0.7322 0.4895 4.95% 13.49 6.79 -45.51%
    Westfield Retail WRT 2.970 9,070,873,599 0.2690 0.1765 5.94% 11.04 3.37 11.87%
    Stockland Property SGP 3.220 7,095,422,074 0.2110 0.2400 7.45% 15.26 3.68 12.50%
    Goodman Group GMG 3.950 6,340,174,526 0.2704 0.1800 4.56% 14.61 2.54 -55.51%
    GPT Group GPT 3.540 6,254,419,166 0.1789 0.1880 5.31% 19.79 3.65 3.01%
    CFS Retail Trust CFX 1.975 5,586,278,927 0.1347 0.1310 6.63% 14.66 2.06 4.13%
    Mirvac Group MGR 1.365 4,671,237,301 0.1094 0.0840 6.15% 12.48 1.63 16.26%
    Dexus DXS 0.965 4,669,658,330 0.0375 0.0535 5.54% 25.73 1.00 3.50%
    Commonwealth Office CPA 1.075 2,523,028,669 0.0843 0.0609 5.67% 12.75 1.13 4.87%
    Investra Office IOF 2.880 1,768,456,679 0.3016 0.1560 5.42% 9.55 3.16 8.86%
    Australand Property ALZ 2.980 1,719,002,859 0.2520 0.2150 7.21% 11.83 3.46 13.87%
    Charter Hall Retail CQR 3.510 1,051,696,284 0.1128 0.2610 7.44% 31.12 3.43 -2.33%
    BWP Trust BWP 1.965 1,032,126,258 0.1340 0.1350 6.87% 14.66 1.85 -6.22%
    Cromwell CMW 0.740 865,569,818 0.0570 0.0700 9.46% 12.98 0.68 -8.82%
    Charter Hall CHC 2.450 730,496,001 0.0849 0.1820 7.43% 28.86 2.19 -11.87%
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  8. #8
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    And sorted by yield:

    Share Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    Cromwell CMW 0.740 865,569,818 0.0570 0.0700 9.46% 12.98 0.68 -8.82%
    Stockland Property SGP 3.220 7,095,422,074 0.2110 0.2400 7.45% 15.26 3.68 12.50%
    Charter Hall Retail CQR 3.510 1,051,696,284 0.1128 0.2610 7.44% 31.12 3.43 -2.33%
    Charter Hall CHC 2.450 730,496,001 0.0849 0.1820 7.43% 28.86 2.19 -11.87%
    Australand Property ALZ 2.980 1,719,002,859 0.2520 0.2150 7.21% 11.83 3.46 13.87%
    BWP Trust BWP 1.965 1,032,126,258 0.1340 0.1350 6.87% 14.66 1.85 -6.22%
    CFS Retail Trust CFX 1.975 5,586,278,927 0.1347 0.1310 6.63% 14.66 2.06 4.13%
    Mirvac Group MGR 1.365 4,671,237,301 0.1094 0.0840 6.15% 12.48 1.63 16.26%
    Westfield Retail WRT 2.970 9,070,873,599 0.2690 0.1765 5.94% 11.04 3.37 11.87%
    Commonwealth Office CPA 1.075 2,523,028,669 0.0843 0.0609 5.67% 12.75 1.13 4.87%
    Dexus DXS 0.965 4,669,658,330 0.0375 0.0535 5.54% 25.73 1.00 3.50%
    Investra Office IOF 2.880 1,768,456,679 0.3016 0.1560 5.42% 9.55 3.16 8.86%
    GPT Group GPT 3.540 6,254,419,166 0.1789 0.1880 5.31% 19.79 3.65 3.01%
    Westfield WDC 9.880 22,333,794,735 0.7322 0.4895 4.95% 13.49 6.79 -45.51%
    Goodman Group GMG 3.950 6,340,174,526 0.2704 0.1800 4.56% 14.61 2.54 -55.51%


    The negate "discount to nta" indicates that the share is trading at a premium to nta.
    Last edited by nulla nulla; 19th-August-2012 at 09:06 PM.
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  9. #9
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Updated as at 28-09-2012.

    Share Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    Australand Property ALZ 2.950 1,701,697,461 0.2520 0.2150 7.29% 11.71 3.46 14.74%
    BWP Trust BWP 1.990 1,045,257,635 0.1340 0.1350 6.78% 14.85 1.85 -7.57%
    CFS Retail Trust CFX 1.930 5,458,996,622 0.1347 0.1310 6.79% 14.33 2.06 6.31%
    Charter Hall CHC 2.880 858,705,503 0.0849 0.1820 6.32% 33.92 2.19 -31.51%
    Cromwell CMW 0.780 912,357,376 0.0570 0.0700 8.97% 13.68 0.68 -14.71%
    Commonwealth Office CPA 1.035 2,429,148,532 0.0843 0.0609 5.88% 12.28 1.13 8.41%
    Charter Hall Retail CQR 3.430 1,027,725,999 0.1128 0.2610 7.61% 30.41 3.43 0.00%
    Dexus DXS 0.950 4,597,072,967 0.0375 0.0535 5.63% 25.33 1.00 5.00%
    Goodman Group GMG 3.960 6,356,225,601 0.2704 0.1800 4.55% 14.64 2.54 -55.91%
    GPT Group GPT 3.400 6,007,069,255 0.1789 0.1880 5.53% 19.01 3.65 6.85%
    Investra Office IOF 2.890 1,774,597,154 0.3016 0.1560 5.40% 9.58 3.16 8.54%
    Mirvac Group MGR 1.430 4,893,677,173 0.1094 0.0840 5.87% 13.07 1.63 12.27%
    Stockland Property SGP 3.340 7,359,847,742 0.2110 0.2400 7.19% 15.83 3.68 9.24%
    Westfield WDC 10.160 22,966,736,286 0.7322 0.4895 4.82% 13.88 6.79 -49.63%
    Westfield Retail WRT 2.890 8,826,540,304 0.2690 0.1765 6.11% 10.74 3.37 14.24%


    There have been some interesting changes in the past 6 weeks.
    Last edited by nulla nulla; 29th-September-2012 at 01:00 PM.
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  10. #10
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Updated as at 12 October 2012.

    Share Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    Australand Property ALZ 3.000 1,730,539,791 0.2520 0.2150 7.17% 11.90 3.46 13.29%
    BWP Trust BWP 2.050 1,076,772,941 0.1340 0.1350 6.59% 15.30 1.85 -10.81%
    CFS Retail Trust CFX 1.955 5,529,709,013 0.1347 0.1310 6.70% 14.51 2.06 5.10%
    Charter Hall CHC 2.810 837,834,189 0.0849 0.1820 6.48% 33.10 2.19 -28.31%
    Cromwell CMW 0.790 924,054,265 0.0570 0.0700 8.86% 13.86 0.68 -16.18%
    Commonwealth Office CPA 1.080 2,534,763,686 0.0843 0.0609 5.64% 12.81 1.13 4.42%
    Charter Hall Retail CQR 3.460 1,036,714,856 0.1128 0.2610 7.54% 30.67 3.43 -0.87%
    Dexus DXS 0.980 4,742,243,692 0.0375 0.0535 5.46% 26.13 1.00 2.00%
    FKP Stapled FKP 0.225 506,478,687 -0.2920 0.0219 9.73% -0.77 0.90 75.00%
    Goodman Group GMG 4.130 6,629,093,872 0.2704 0.1800 4.36% 15.27 2.54 -62.60%
    GPT Group GPT 3.550 6,272,087,016 0.1789 0.1880 5.30% 19.84 3.65 2.74%
    Investra Office IOF 2.950 1,811,440,001 0.3016 0.1560 5.29% 9.78 3.16 6.65%
    Mirvac Group MGR 1.505 5,150,338,563 0.1094 0.0840 5.58% 13.76 1.63 7.67%
    Stockland Property SGP 3.620 7,976,840,965 0.2110 0.2400 6.63% 17.16 3.68 1.63%
    Westfield WDC 10.350 23,396,232,339 0.7322 0.4895 4.73% 14.14 6.79 -52.43%
    Westfield Retail WRT 3.030 9,254,123,571 0.2690 0.1765 5.83% 11.26 3.37 10.09%

    Some of these figures may be subject to adjustment relative to share buy back cancelations as well as nta revisions in line with new capital issued. Interesting that the three highest yields also appear to be paying higher distributions than their earnings. REIT can be a crazy sector when the market mood pushes a share price way up in respect of value for yield, p/e and premiums to nta. Go figure.

    Disclaimer: These tables should not be relied upon for investments decisions. Consult and expert and do your own research.
    Last edited by nulla nulla; 13th-October-2012 at 06:12 PM.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  11. #11

    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Quote Originally Posted by nulla nulla View Post
    Updated as at 12 October 2012.
    Some of these figures may be subject to adjustment relative to share buy back cancelations as well as nta revisions in line with new capital issued. Interesting that the three highest yields also appear to be paying higher distributions than their earnings. REIT can be a crazy sector when the market mood pushes a share price way up in respect of value for yield, p/e and premiums to nta. Go figure.

    Disclaimer: These tables should not be relied upon for investments decisions. Consult and expert and do your own research.
    FKP would have to go on my watchlist

  12. #12

    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Any thoughts that some of these may better value than the banks at the moment?

    Regards

    Rick

    - Not holding any of the above.
    "The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away." Marcus Aurelius

  13. #13
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Quote Originally Posted by Muschu View Post
    Any thoughts that some of these may better value than the banks at the moment?

    Regards

    Rick

    - Not holding any of the above.
    Personally I feel that the banks are too high at the moment to acquire as a long term hold as an investment for fully franked dividends. If you bought and are holding them from when they were at their recent lows, the yields make some of them worth holding as having better yields than bank interest and additional benefits from franking credits.

    None of the listed reit's above pay franked dividends. Most if not all are stapled shares and pay distributions as distinct from dividends. Also in my opinion most of them are not worth acquiring as a long term hold for their yield alone. Personally If I were looking to hold any REIT's long term, I would be looking for the ones with yield at their current share price combined with their prospects of reducing their discount to nta or even moving to a premium to nta.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  14. #14

    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Quote Originally Posted by nulla nulla View Post
    Personally I feel that the banks are too high at the moment to acquire as a long term hold as an investment for fully franked dividends. If you bought and are holding them from when they were at their recent lows, the yields make some of them worth holding as having better yields than bank interest and additional benefits from franking credits.

    None of the listed reit's above pay franked dividends. Most if not all are stapled shares and pay distributions as distinct from dividends. Also in my opinion most of them are not worth acquiring as a long term hold for their yield alone. Personally If I were looking to hold any REIT's long term, I would be looking for the ones with yield at their current share price combined with their prospects of reducing their discount to nta or even moving to a premium to nta.
    Many thanks NN. I have never looked into this line of investment. Some of the larger players in this field I know of but I have not studied the area.

    I started a BWP thread a few hours ago largely because a retiree friend has held them for many years and I am curious as to what others think of it.

    I appreciate your comments.

    Rick
    "The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away." Marcus Aurelius

  15. #15

    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Hi NN

    Of the many things I do not understand is the importance of NTA. In your latest table above these vary from 0.68 to 6.79. Is this where the importance lies or is it in the discount to NTA?

    I don't want to ask you to provide advice or be too specific but how do investors use this info to guide their decision making?

    [And if that question is too simple or requires a lengthy answer please ignore it...]

    Regards

    Rick
    "The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away." Marcus Aurelius

  16. #16
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Quote Originally Posted by Muschu View Post
    Hi NN

    Of the many things I do not understand is the importance of NTA. In your latest table above these vary from 0.68 to 6.79. Is this where the importance lies or is it in the discount to NTA?

    I don't want to ask you to provide advice or be too specific but how do investors use this info to guide their decision making?

    [And if that question is too simple or requires a lengthy answer please ignore it...]

    Regards

    Rick
    NTA = Net Tangible Assets per share. Obviously they differ for each company. Cromwell for instance has Net Tangibles Assets per share issued of $0.68. Interestingly enough, the share price last week was higher than the NTA, so accordingly it is trading at a premium to nta and the discount in the table is a negative percentage.

    From my perspective, if a share has good yield and is trading at a discount to nta, I am optimistic that it has better chances of improving for a capital gain than say a share with a low yield and trading at a premium to nta.

    This doesn't necessarily work as you only have to look at GMG which is not great in the yield area and trades at a huge premium to nta. In reality the market seems to like some shares more than others and is willing to pay a premium for some but want a hefty discount on nta for others.

    I try to us the fundamentals as well as the chart trends to narrow the field down to those ones I'm comfortable trading. Probably an obscure form or Risk/Return assessment.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  17. #17
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Some of the figures needed changing. I'm not sure whether this was due to errors in the original table or they have changed with recent profit reports.

    REIT Table as at 26 October 2012:

    Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    ALZ 2.950 1,701,697,461 0.2520 8.54% 0.2150 7.29% 11.71 3.46 14.74%
    BWP 2.100 1,103,035,695 0.1340 6.38% 0.1350 6.43% 15.67 1.85 -13.51%
    CFX 1.965 5,557,993,970 0.1442 7.34% 0.1310 6.67% 13.63 2.06 4.61%
    CHC 3.100 924,301,062 0.0564 1.82% 0.1820 5.87% 54.96 2.19 -41.55%
    CMW 0.820 959,144,933 0.0216 2.63% 0.0700 8.54% 37.96 0.68 -20.59%
    CPA 1.080 2,534,763,686 0.1066 9.87% 0.0609 5.64% 10.13 1.13 4.42%
    CQR 3.570 1,069,673,998 0.0324 0.91% 0.2610 7.31% 110.19 3.43 -4.08%
    DXS 0.985 4,766,438,813 0.0375 3.81% 0.0535 5.43% 26.27 1.00 1.50%
    FKP 0.225 506,478,687 -0.2920 -129.78% 0.0219 9.73% -0.77 0.90 75.00%
    GMG 4.280 6,869,859,993 0.2704 6.32% 0.1800 4.21% 15.83 2.54 -68.50%
    GPT 3.510 6,201,415,613 0.1789 5.10% 0.1880 5.36% 19.62 3.65 3.84%
    IOF 2.990 1,836,001,899 0.1600 5.35% 0.1700 5.69% 18.69 3.14 4.78%
    MGR 1.520 5,201,670,841 0.1220 8.03% 0.0840 5.53% 12.46 1.63 6.75%
    SGP 3.470 7,646,308,881 0.2110 6.08% 0.2400 6.92% 16.45 3.68 5.71%
    WDC 10.570 23,893,543,558 0.7322 6.93% 0.4895 4.63% 14.44 6.79 -55.67%
    WRT 3.110 9,498,456,866 0.2690 8.65% 0.1765 5.68% 11.56 3.37 7.72%

    By Highest Yield:

    Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    CMW 0.820 959,144,933 0.0216 2.63% 0.0700 8.54% 37.96 0.68 -20.59%
    CQR 3.570 1,069,673,998 0.0324 0.91% 0.2610 7.31% 110.19 3.43 -4.08%
    ALZ 2.950 1,701,697,461 0.2520 8.54% 0.2150 7.29% 11.71 3.46 14.74%
    SGP 3.470 7,646,308,881 0.2110 6.08% 0.2400 6.92% 16.45 3.68 5.71%
    CFX 1.965 5,557,993,970 0.1442 7.34% 0.1310 6.67% 13.63 2.06 4.61%
    BWP 2.100 1,103,035,695 0.1340 6.38% 0.1350 6.43% 15.67 1.85 -13.51%
    CHC 3.100 924,301,062 0.0564 1.82% 0.1820 5.87% 54.96 2.19 -41.55%
    IOF 2.990 1,836,001,899 0.1600 5.35% 0.1700 5.69% 18.69 3.14 4.78%
    WRT 3.110 9,498,456,866 0.2690 8.65% 0.1765 5.68% 11.56 3.37 7.72%
    CPA 1.080 2,534,763,686 0.1066 9.87% 0.0609 5.64% 10.13 1.13 4.42%
    MGR 1.520 5,201,670,841 0.1220 8.03% 0.0840 5.53% 12.46 1.63 6.75%
    DXS 0.985 4,766,438,813 0.0375 3.81% 0.0535 5.43% 26.27 1.00 1.50%
    GPT 3.510 6,201,415,613 0.1789 5.10% 0.1880 5.36% 19.62 3.65 3.84%
    WDC 10.570 23,893,543,558 0.7322 6.93% 0.4895 4.63% 14.44 6.79 -55.67%
    GMG 4.280 6,869,859,993 0.2704 6.32% 0.1800 4.21% 15.83 2.54 -68.50%


    As always do your own research. The above figures may not be acurate and should not be relied on for making financial decisions. Good luck .
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  18. #18

    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Many thanks NN - you've added to my knowledge - very interesting comments.
    "The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away." Marcus Aurelius

  19. #19
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    Gareth Hutchens of the Sydney Morning Herald (The Age) had an interesting possible explanation in the Saturday paper for the surprise sell down of some shares toward the end of last week:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/what-...102-28prc.html


    Carolyn Cummins (same newspaper) also led an article with "Trusts on Hold" as some analysts revised some shares from a "buy" to a "hold" with concerns for income growth next year:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/trust...102-28p4b.html


    And of course with the changes in share price (and nta?) the yields became more attractive for some shares and less so for others:

    Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    ALZ 2.950 1,701,697,461 0.2520 8.54% 0.2150 7.29% 11.71 3.46 14.74%
    BWP 2.060 1,082,025,492 0.1340 6.50% 0.1350 6.55% 15.37 1.85 -11.35%
    CFX 1.945 5,501,424,057 0.1442 7.41% 0.1310 6.74% 13.49 2.06 5.58%
    CHC 3.100 924,301,062 0.0564 1.82% 0.1820 5.87% 54.96 2.19 -41.55%
    CMW 0.825 964,993,378 0.0216 2.62% 0.0700 8.48% 38.19 0.68 -21.32%
    CPA 1.035 2,429,148,532 0.1066 10.30% 0.0609 5.88% 9.71 1.15 10.00%
    CQR 3.680 1,102,633,141 0.0324 0.88% 0.2610 7.09% 113.58 3.43 -7.29%
    DXS 0.965 4,669,658,330 0.0375 3.89% 0.0535 5.54% 25.73 1.00 3.50%
    FKP 0.225 506,478,687 -0.2920 -129.78% 0.0219 9.73% -0.77 0.90 75.00%
    GMG 4.340 6,966,166,442 0.2704 6.23% 0.1800 4.15% 16.05 2.54 -70.87%
    GPT 3.490 6,166,079,912 0.1789 5.13% 0.1880 5.39% 19.51 3.65 4.38%
    IOF 2.970 1,823,720,950 0.1600 5.39% 0.1700 5.72% 18.56 3.14 5.41%
    MGR 1.470 5,030,563,247 0.1220 8.30% 0.0840 5.71% 12.05 1.63 9.82%
    SGP 3.440 7,580,202,464 0.2110 6.13% 0.2400 6.98% 16.30 3.68 6.52%
    WDC 10.580 23,916,148,613 0.7322 6.92% 0.4895 4.63% 14.45 6.79 -55.82%
    WRT 3.150 9,620,623,514 0.2690 8.54% 0.1765 5.60% 11.71 3.37 6.53%


    Disclaimer: The figures above may be inaccurate and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.

  20. #20
    Positive Expectancy nulla nulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: A-REIT valuation model

    A-REIT Table as at 9 November 2012 closing prices:

    Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
    ALZ 2.940 1,695,928,995 0.2520 8.57% 0.2150 7.31% 11.67 3.46 15.03%
    BWP 2.070 1,087,278,043 0.1340 6.47% 0.1350 6.52% 15.45 1.85 -11.89%
    CFX 1.930 5,458,996,622 0.1442 7.47% 0.1310 6.79% 13.38 2.06 6.31%
    CHC 3.080 918,337,830 0.0564 1.83% 0.1820 5.91% 54.61 2.19 -40.64%
    CMW 0.830 970,841,823 0.0216 2.60% 0.0700 8.43% 38.43 0.68 -22.06%
    CPA 1.045 2,452,618,567 0.1066 10.20% 0.0609 5.83% 9.80 1.15 9.13%
    CQR 3.600 1,078,662,856 0.2880 8.00% 0.2610 7.25% 12.50 3.43 -4.96%
    DXS 0.990 4,790,633,934 0.0375 3.79% 0.0535 5.40% 26.40 1.00 1.00%
    FKP 0.210 472,713,441 -0.2920 -139.05% 0.0219 10.43% -0.72 0.90 76.67%
    GMG 4.420 7,094,575,040 0.2704 6.12% 0.1800 4.07% 16.35 2.54 -74.02%
    GPT 3.480 6,148,412,061 0.1789 5.14% 0.1880 5.40% 19.45 3.65 4.66%
    IOF 2.890 1,774,597,154 0.1600 5.54% 0.1560 5.40% 18.06 3.14 7.96%
    MGR 1.450 4,962,120,210 0.1220 8.41% 0.0840 5.79% 11.89 1.63 11.04%
    SGP 3.430 7,558,166,992 0.2110 6.15% 0.2400 7.00% 16.26 3.68 6.79%
    WDC 10.450 23,622,282,893 0.7322 7.01% 0.4895 4.68% 14.27 6.79 -53.90%
    WRT 3.100 9,467,915,205 0.2690 8.68% 0.1765 5.69% 11.52 3.37 8.01%


    Some of the yields look attractive, particularly as some of the REIT's are due to announce a distribution in December (payable in February 2013). However the current economic uncertainty is creating volatility in the property sector as well and there is no rule of thumb to say that the present prices are opportunities to invest. Fact of the matter is REIT's have been enjoying a purple patch over recent months, climbing to their best price levels since the gfc. Who's to say the reit sector isn't about to have a correction? Shakes crystal ball and peers into the fog. As always d.y.o.r. and good luck.

    Disclaimer: The figures above may be wrong and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions.
    "Speak softly, but carry a big stick". Theodore Roosevelt.



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