SWL - Seymour Whyte

[skc]

Well that's good to know. I guess to be fair, LEI was getting into areas it didn't have experience in and then quoting rock bottom prices because it was tendering against itself.

You've worked in the corporate world and you know how it is. You never say NO to anything.

If you tell your boss you can't take on such and such job because you didn't have the experience - well that shows clearly a lack of drive and desire the learn.

If you tell your boss the risk is too high, your performance review will say - not a risk taker, unable to work with imprecise information.

A lot of corporate highflyers are of a certain type for this reason imho - they may be really good or just got really lucky.

[RandR]

I dont know how much of the gold coast light rail they are involved in. But there has been a lot of angst in the local area in regards to this project. It hasnt been progressing as fast as people were originally planning, its causing a lot of angry business owners in the streets affected. Im also fairly sure i read some reports that local government were pushing contractors to move to 24 hour work schedules to move the project a little quicker. As well as threats from various new state liberal politicians to cut the project off entirely at some stage as they deem it a bit of a waste of money in there opinion. Worth keeping an eye on.

[skc]

I dont know how much of the gold coast light rail they are involved in. But there has been a lot of angst in the local area in regards to this project. It hasnt been progressing as fast as people were originally planning, its causing a lot of angry business owners in the streets affected. Im also fairly sure i read some reports that local government were pushing contractors to move to 24 hour work schedules to move the project a little quicker. As well as threats from various new state liberal politicians to cut the project off entirely at some stage as they deem it a bit of a waste of money in there opinion. Worth keeping an eye on.

Believe it or not it happens in most big projects. Interface dealys are killers for projects and I can certainly see why local businesses are pi$$ed off. Moving to 24hr work schedule may actually be beneficial to the contractor, as the "Acceleration clause" in the contract can be quite lucrative.

Personally I think the light rail is a good fit for Gold Coast - it's a long skinny city so perfect for a linear mass transit system that's simple for the tourists as well.

Meanwhile - SWL opened high and the sell off continued.

[ROE]

Another pump and dump by the man :-)

Notice he always said he sold out these stocks after they chuck a dummy spit on
profit down grade

we sold SWL a while ago, we sold MCE a while ago
when? during the pump and dump period

Man feel sorry for people following this guy, they will learn to recognise the salesman one day.

He has learned his lesson from CCP in 2008 :-) that was a public humiliation, he got it wrong big time
this time around he is smarter he doesn't reveal what he does...he always say thing in hind insight

[McLovin]

Another pump and dump by the man :-)

Notice he always said he sold out these stocks after they chuck a dummy spit on
profit down grade

we sold SWL a while ago, we sold MCE a while ago
when? during the pump and dump period

Man feel sorry for people following this guy, they will learn to recognise the salesman one day.

He has learned his lesson from CCP in 2008 :-) that was a public humiliation, he got it wrong big time
this time around he is smarter he doesn't reveal what he does...he always say thing in hind insight

Did he actually sell out of this? Here is in April talking it up and saying he owns it...(from the 36 minute mark)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDJxG07yVvo

[RottenValue]

Did he actually sell out of this? Here is in April talking it up and saying he owns it...(from the 36 minute mark)

Of course he did, he always does according to him. For a supposed long-term value investor, he is damn good at selecting companies with no track record, getting on board, pumping them up and then jumping off at just the right time. I wonder how long before the Value-able sychophants have had enough?

But I did notice that he has a new carrot out there - for a small fee you can have Roger the Dodger manage your money for you and also feel safe that you will always be out of the landmines just before they explode in your face.

And maybe that has been the real game all along - hook the fish through Eureka Report, then book, then Skaffold and finally after proving it is too hard for the average Joe, save them with the retail fund.

[Vesupria]

And maybe that has been the real game all along - hook the fish through Eureka Report, then book, then Skaffold and finally after proving it is too hard for the average Joe, save them with the retail fund.

Good luck to anyone who gives them his money.

His latest gloat, which is on his blog, is that over the last 12 months the Montgomery Private Fund is second in Australia for managed fund performance. He didn't make the original list constructed by Mercer (probably didn't make the qualifications), but he has developed a table and added himself for comparison any way.

Any way, his performance for the 12 month period was 3.9%.

I remember that he was heavily in cash (and still is) according to his media appearances of various shows and websites.

So if I could get 6% or so for much of the last twelve months parking my cash in the bank, doesn't that mean that his equity performance is also negative (much like most of the fund managers in the Mercer list that are probably close to fully invested being equity funds that are closely weighted to the index usually)?

He's a spin doctor, but it's easy to read between the lines if you try. He'd be good at writing profit downgrades for companies like SWL.

His verifiable public record (including Clime) is dreadful.

[ROE]

Did he actually sell out of this? Here is in April talking it up and saying he owns it...(from the 36 minute mark)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDJxG07yVvo

He certainly did according to Eureka report

dump.JPG

Between April and June that is a long time can he spins 2 months into years :-)

[Kulio]

It's quite funny how Roger keeps quoting Buffett when Buffett would very rarely look into speculative "businesses" such as mining or construction stocks. Roger seems intent on analysing business like these.

[robusta]

It's quite funny how Roger keeps quoting Buffett when Buffett would very rarely look into speculative "businesses" such as mining or construction stocks. Roger seems intent on analysing business like these.

He also quotes a lot of Ben Graham, who had absolutely no time for analyst forecasts. His whole Skafold future intrinsic value thing is based on forecasts.

[McLovin]

He certainly did according to Eureka report

dump.JPG

Between April and June that is a long time can he spins 2 months into years :-)

What a joker. The same guy who tells retail investors they should only buy businesses they'd be happy to hold even if the market was closed for five years.

He just chases earnings momentum, that's why he ends up in these contracting type businesses. Nothing wrong with that I guess, just say that's what you do.

[robusta]

Anyhow after bagging Roger i had better explain why I invested in SWL after this recent downgrade.

SWL is a well established business focused on organic growth, has a strong balance sheet and earnings growth over the last six years of 10% plus.

Just because it has been pumped and dumped does not leave no value after a 30-40% sp fall.

[robusta]

Seems to me rumours or this business demise have been greatly exaggerated, nice little contact win announced today. Once again I bought in way too early, I wonder how silly that will look in a few years time.

[robusta]

What the...?????

Up over 10% today on no news.

[barnso]

What the...?????

Up over 10% today on no news.

12.67%, I don't understand! Almost back to my purchase price of 98c.

I really do wonder what has caused today's jump!

[robusta]

12.67%, I don't understand! Almost back to my purchase price of 98c.

I really do wonder what has caused today's jump!

We got our answer today, new 59 million contract signed.

[barnso]

Anyone holding SWL? What do you make of the recent CEO's address?

SWL are well below my purchase price, and have lost over 3% today. It just seems to be going lower and lower

[Country Lad]

Anyone holding SWL? What do you make of the recent CEO's address?

The Chairman's address probably tells more. I have not held shares for a long time, having bought very early on and sold on the announcement that Garry Whyte resigned as a director due to ill health in April last year. Having known Garry for many years and dealt with him during his John Holland days, I was concerned that his influence would be missed. Whether that has been the case, we will never know.

The recent profit drop was partly a consequence of the change in Qld government, and partly the market changing where their ability to negotiate the contracts (or alliance as the Chairman called it) is reducing and now increasingly need to compete in open tenders which will likely reduce the margins.

It is a shame to see it having a hard time after the start they had with a good market strategy and execution, but maybe they need now to be considered simply as a small civil contractor tendering against others in an increasingly competitive market.

Cheers
Country Lad

[robusta]

Another nice contract win announced today so revenue shouldn't be a problem for the immediate future. It will be interesting to see the margins and cash flow in the next couple of years however.