Of course I have an expectation or expectation that the trade will move positively I just don't know how far and I don't know how fast.
Both are critical in setting of buy and trailing stop.
The topic is complex but simple and I will handle everyone the same but everyone different.
Let me explain.
M/M is always the same,and its not conventional in most part it has one aim only increase R.
I have no idea what my R will be before a trade nor do I guess it I simply make it as large as I can DURING the initial part of the trade.
At the end of a number of trades I can work out my ACTUAL R on those trades from the ACTUAL result.
But LIKE YOU I need somewhere to start but its NOT where I finish!
My initial risk is NEVER reached. I wont allow it. this has stopped me out prematurely but I don't care its the R that's important if I get that right profit will come---regularly.
So an example.
Position size with 1% of equity stop based upon a technical level.
ALWAYS take a trade with momentum in the direction of intended trade.
That's why I stupidly (evidently) buy breakouts.
After the initial buy I ignore the stop level I'll NEVER let it reach it I want to minimise R loss.
As soon as I can halve it I will and as soon as I feel the buy price wont be pressured Ill move to that.
Price normally wont rise for ever in a move so then I look for signs of exhaustion which I'll show by chart if interested.
I will move a trailing stop to pivots in the time frame traded and then when a topping is likely by way of analysis I'll pull the trailing up to a bar or 2 bar stop.
So I don't need to know how far its going and I can manipulate R dramatically over a number of trades getting amazing R multiples.
I do a less aggressive form of shorter term trading with the same result.
I play with MM far more than Analysis.
Hope that's got you into a very different head!
In this game you have to be different.