2010 Jan-March Correction - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Default 2010 Jan-March Correction

    I'm personally bullish for 2010 but the recent pullback has got me questioning:

    Is this the begging of the correction so many people have been talking about?

    Or is it simply a bit of panic selling due to the recent announcements from both China (government stepping in to reduce 'easy' credit from Chinese banks spurring many analysts to downgrade China's economic growth forecast by 2% for 2010) and from the States (imposing new regulatory systems for the way in which banks can invest their funds thus affecting profit margins)?

    With so many people on the side lines waiting for an opportunity to get their money in the market is now the time or is there more red to come?

    Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when other are greedy, or so the saying goes, and because we are still trading on comparatively light volumes I tend to think there is more red to come as people focus on protecting capital.

    Imo Jan-March will be about selecting stocks carefully (as compaines reports could have serious impacts on SP as WOR has demonstrated for us) and staying away from the mainstream, waiting it out, looking for good opportunities as they come and maintainging a focus on scaling in and out of positions.

    Lets here your views.


  2. #2

    Default Re: 2010 Jan-March Correction

    Refer my last post on Imminent and Severe Market Correction - current Dow PE is 29 which is way ahead of where earnings are likely to be heading this year. Yes growth might be back on the cards but given that SPs have moved 60% in the past 9 months and PE is STILL 29, makes me think that there is a significant probability that the Dow will head lower over the coming months.

    Historical PE for the Dow at the end of bear markets is around 8-10 from what I've read That would imply a target of around 3500-4500 depending on how earnings move this year. Don't know if I'm brave enough to call that, but definitely back towards 8000 IMO.

  3. #3
    Garpal Gumnut's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2010 Jan-March Correction

    The end is not nigh,

    The end is now.

    "I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member." Quote Groucho Marx
    Je suis Charlie

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