Stocks for the New Year: what you have bought/sold and most importantly why? - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Default Stocks for the New Year: what you have bought/sold and most importantly why?

    I was hoping people could share their ideas of what they thought was good value going into 2010 and what they have sold.

    Reasons for purchases and sales should be provided.

    I'll kick it off first with my sales.

    A couple of months ago I sold nearly all my financials e.g. AMP, ANZ, CBA, NAB etc.. I had been increasing my holding during the upswing and the with the increases in SP, they were over 1/2 of the portfolio and no longer seemed cheap given the low ROE and higher PE. I still think large profit increases are likely but I think the upside is probably limited compared with the potential downside if there is another black swan. I have been looking to buy back if there is a pull back and have been looking at qbe.


    Top ups of existing positions after profit upgrades
    FGE- Came out with a huge increase in profit guidance, so forward PE was still <6 despite this already being a 11 bagger post its GFC low (I wish it was that for me)

    CCV- Small profit upgrade but should be able to increase profits regularly by buying stores from its franchisees. Good ROE and div yield, PE of about 9 after you take away its 50m of cash.

    AVX- A bit speculative this one, stopped its phase 3 HIV drug trial to analyse the results. I don't think any HIV drug that has reached a phase 3 trial has failed. Price has fallen back a bit as they did a cap raising. I thought they would be cashed up until the release of the results which is why I bought in. I participated in the cap raising and sold some after seeing how many shares were alloted to maintain a similair amount of shares.

    Junior gold miners
    BDG- Lots of bad history but has 50m cash, EV of 77m scheduled to produce 80,000+oz in 2010, low reserves but cashflow should be high at least in the short term if gold price stays at current prices.

    DRA- Operates in Scandanavia, minimal debt, EV 70-75m also scheduled to produce 80,000+oz in 2010, so again cashflow should be high.

    I'm also happy to hear criticism about my choices.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Stocks for the New Year: what you have bought/sold and most importantly why?

    Forgot a few more recent sales,

    JMB- thought it would be re-rated after beginning to pay a div, didn't happen and started to resume its extremely long downtrend.

    NBS- Sold out for a decent loss as management seriously misrepresented the security of their contracts, I was seduced by the 80%+ profit margins even though it smelt a bit fishy.

    PVA- Had a product in phase 3 in which early results showed that the low dose form was effective against diabetic macular edema, no other drug currently is approved for it although avastin is used off licence and laser therapy is used in australia but it only halts further damage. Subsequent safety trials showed the low dose form also gave you glaucoma so I sold out, the phase 3 results have been released and confirmed it. Glaucoma is treatable so the product will probably still get approved as it improves their vision but its not quite a blockbuster drug anymore.

  3. #3
    Yamaha 650 XS2 Purple XS2's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007

    Default Re: Stocks for the New Year: what you have bought/sold and most importantly why?

    Sold: Sabre (SBR) simple profit taking, after having done nicely out of a very small parcel. I still fancy the stock.

    Bought more Avexa (AVX). I'm with the thread's originator (suhm) on that one, but I really do need to sell off a few simply because I'm so overweight in AVX.

    Bought more Signature (SBL). I'm beginning to become a Steinepreis watcher. Might go an buy me some Monto (MOO) today.

    Selling UXC, because I used to work for them, then they went and redundanced me; got a nice package, Praise the Lord (an in-joke).

    Buying: more biotech stuff. It suits my gambling urge, and soothes the conscience while I look at buying back into Metal Storm (MST), an arms developer, but at least they're an Aussie arms developer, and I'm obligated to protect threatened species (to wit: Aussie arms industry, and Aussies).

    regards, P.
    "He's better at mining investors than mining the ground;" on Alan Bond. (attribution unknown)

  4. #4

    Default Re: Stocks for the New Year: what you have bought/sold and most importantly why?

    watching the aussie dollar and if it continues to drop buying into BSL
    also looking at BLY for the recovery

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