The point of this thread is to talk about non-mainstream ideas related to trading. Although I draw the line at the spukhafte Fernwirkung of astrology and ilk.
In kicking off...
Here's a series of lectures George Soros gave in Oct 09 at the Central European University. It seems to me that what he has to say is worth hearing and there may be others who would like to take a look there. I am currently live testing a trading idea which is a direct application of Soros' concept of reflexivity but more on that some other time.
I was pondering a bit today and I wonder if a mathematician could provide perspective here. Roger Penrose argued that given Gödel's incompleteness theorems, human consciousness and decision-making cannot be exhaustively reduced to a set of algorithms, that there is something 'extra' which is non-computable (and from my own philosophical background I would accept this as true anyway but via the problem of qualia). If this is the case, then mathematical models for finance and economics are inherently unstable, even if they demonstrate stability for long periods of time. The non-computable X factor in human decision-making would always remain a wild-card (even in the most sophisticated and exhaustive modelling ever possible) and, if I'm understanding it correctly, would actually be a major spanner in the works of the efficient market hypothesis. Further, it would tend to dovetail neatly with Soros' reflexivity concept. As I don't have much background in maths, perhaps someone who does could appropriately comment? My curiosity about this is currently trivial ie. no major purpose for wanting to know, just attempting to fit some pieces of the puzzle together, or not, as the case may be.
Unfortunately my darling wife insisted on talking to me the whole time I was writing this post so I may not have explained myself very well.