Im a software developer and have done some small-time share trading.
The problem is im a lazy developer so I dont even want to work for my money. Thats how I got a interest in automated system trading.
I have come up with a basic system which predicts if the S&P index will close positive or negative with 75% success rate. I have back tested as far as I could using data from Yahoo finance and it seems its profitable at anywhere between +42%pa (2004) to +190%pa (2008). This is from buying at open and selling at close daily.
I used database queries in MS access to do this (Im sure Amibroker could do this also and I am going to learn how to use it).
My questions are,
- Are these good returns for a system?
- Is CDF the best product to trade the index with shorts and longs?
- What are the dangers in this system?
- Im pretty good at analysing data in a database should I stick with this method or move onto Amibroker ?
The next step is finding a algorithm to predict the bottom and top of the market for the day. Can someone please suggest one?