GUD - GUD Holdings - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1
    Pigs In Space GreatPig's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004

    Post GUD - GUD Holdings

    Another breakout pushing up nicely. Currently $7.13 as I write.


    [I hold]
    Attached Images

  2. #2

    Default Re: GUD


    For those of us who don't know (me) what makes this a breakout?

    Gud entered a buy signal for me about a week or so ago and then I sold out of the posistion a few days later becuase it went no where and I decided to try my luck on another stock (no my stop wasn't reached and yes I am kicking myself now).

    The trade was only on paper though so the more important learning side of things will be good on this trade.

    anyway any explanation on what makes this a breakout for you would be apreciatied.

    Volume and price increase of course are fairly obvious ones that I pick

    The greatest trick the devil ever played was convincing mankind he does not exist.

  3. #3

    Default Re: GUD


    This is only my opinion, but...

    It's a breakout because the price jumped above the top line I had drawn across the previous peaks.

    Prices have a tendency at times to be bounded by straight lines, sometimes horizontal lines and sometimes sloping lines. That gives rise to the various patterns that technical analysts often talk about (resistance, support, triangles, flags, pennants, etc). There are "crowd" explanations for all these patterns (ie. what's happening between buyers and sellers), but of course none are totally reliable. They're just indications of points of higher probability, although many breakouts also fail and quickly reverse direction again.

    In this case, the downsloping top line formed a resistance level, albeit a descending one with time. The general idea is that at this level there was enough selling volume to prevent the price going higher. It would rise to that level, get pushed down by the sellers, rise again to nearly the same level, get pushed down again, and so on until all the volume for sale around that price had been bought. Then, with no more volume for sale at that price, the price broke through that resistance level and pushed on up. This indicates that ultimately there was more buying pressure than selling, but it took a while for all the volume at the resistance level to get bought up. From a T/A point of view, top-side breakouts indicate a good possibility of further price rises, especially if accompanied by relatively high volume.

    In GUD's case, the volume was not particularly high when it first broke my line, but today's was much higher as it pushed well clear of the line. Who knows where it will go from here, but I'll hold until I get a sell indication.

    Attached is another example from a stock I hold. I bought when it first broke the top line, after which it retreated back under the line but is now poking back up again. I have reasonable hopes for this given that the third bottom didn't reach right down to the bottom line and this last dip only got down to $1.20. Again, no guarantees of anything, but I think the signs are positive.

    As I said, all just my own interpretation, but hopefully it helps.

    Attached Images

  4. #4

    Default Re: GUD


    From what I have interrupted in basic essance it broke the trend line (which was a resistance trend).

    In which case it is most helpful.

    Thanks for the explanation.
    The greatest trick the devil ever played was convincing mankind he does not exist.

  5. #5

    Default Re: GUD

    GUD repeating previous pattern today.

    BIG WHITE into new air.

    LONG on the close

  6. #6

    Default Re: GUD

    This forums better. Charts can be posted.

    This is what I see:
    Attached Images
    All the Best
    by the tips of my fingers

  7. #7
    rozella rozella's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    NSW Far South Coast

    Default Re: GUD

    Good explanation Greatpig,

    The other thing that would not be doing it any harm, is that it is due to report its dividend on or around 31st January (last years date) & exdiv around the 21st February. Last years dividend was 23.0 cents fully franked. The Chairmans address in October said that he expects "further dividend growth for shareholders"

    It is also the next major company to report, so it would be on a few radars at present including mine.....I was hoping it would drop a bit yesterday with the market....around 765.0 would be okay, currently 780.0

  8. #8

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    If this one can hold this sort of advance on the close this Friday, future direction is in little doubt
    Attached Images
    All the Best
    by the tips of my fingers

  9. #9

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    How wrong can I be? Entry and exit marks tell the story.
    Attached Images
    All the Best
    by the tips of my fingers

  10. #10

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    What would be the reason for the drop "11% or more" in share price over the last few days
    Also with a div. yield of more than 7% looks like a god long term investment

  11. #11
    3 veiws of a secret
    Join Date
    Feb 2006

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    I have had a serious look at this share tonight - paying some 33 cents (?)dividend and the price slides down to $6.75 today. What's going on, is there bad results on the horizon? Just cannot seem to find the link, unless I'm careless as usual.
    I've been looking for a solid yeilding share....... grrrrrr
    Anybody willing to read the 'shamemus riot act' as to what I glaringly have missed.

  12. #12

    Arrow Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Well this stock had cetainly had pretty good run since Sept (as did most of the ASX though). I have purchased it around $7.3 and its currently trading at almost $9!

    I have also done some basic fundamentals analysis of GUD for the laymen on my website check it out and let me know if I missed something substantial. The link is http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/01...dings-limited/

  13. #13

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    GUD again in record levels now around $9.1 so breaking $9 comfortably. Its trading at around 13.5 PE so there may still be quite a bit of upside IMHO.

    But I was wondering if someone running technicals over this stock could tell me how does this stock look from technical point of view (ie. next resistance, supports etc.)



  14. #14

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Since plunging from a high of around 11 in Dec 2004 this share has hovered around the $8 mark. I notice when dividends are about to be distributed it surges to around $8.5. This time it seems to be going to 9 but another thing I've noticed is it seems to be having quite a bit of resistance keeping its head above that price, getting there twice these last couple of weeks and then falling sharply. Dividends are nice and this share has one of the highest (with the last announcement saying more to come) but for me I'm better off with capital profit so I got out on Monday.

    I can't see things getting easier for them with all the cheap no-name chinese goods they have to compete with in kmart target etc. Suburban backyards with nothing but grass and a hills clotheslines in the middle are getting fewer.

  15. #15

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings


    I would perhaps agree with your argument about the potential problems with their mowers in Australia but GUD is not only mowers nowadays. And not only Australia, roughly looking at their last annual report i found that:

    #Consumer Products (brands Sunbeam, Victa, Oates Clean) bring in about 60% of total revenue
    # Water Products (Spa Quip, Davey, Monarch Pools) about 21% of total revenue
    # Automotive Products (brands Ryco, Wesfil) making about 15% of total revenue
    # Security Products (Lock Focus) about 3% of total revenue
    (my little analysis of GUD is located at http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/01...dings-limited/
    if you are intrested)

    As to the argument of cheaper imported goods - well i think GUD is trying to get their stuff made in China also (if thats not already happening). So in my opinion they should be doing ok in that department also.

    Having said all this, taking advantage of current market hights is by no means bad decision. GUD now trades around 14-15PE so should it return to its historical average PE of 11, you could re-purchase for handsome profit.

    Good Luck

  16. #16

    Arrow Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Interim results released on 29 January were not what market expected -> price back to its more traditional $8 levels.

    Not only, as predicted, the mower division suffered (due to drought), but also their cleaning business and forex hedging policies were disapointing.

    Company does plan a share buyback so thats a little plus I guess, but whatabout the dividends? I mean earning 25 cents and paying dividend of 27 cents does not really sound very apealing for the long run. For more details look here http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/02...esults-fy2007/

    Good Luck

  17. #17

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Quote Originally Posted by jkool View Post
    I mean earning 25 cents and paying dividend of 27 cents does not really sound very apealing for the long run.
    I would tend to agree. ... yet it's now over $9.50 and has traded over $9.80. Does anyone have any suggestions as to why the sudden upward movement?

  18. #18

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Okay, it's now trading at $10.77, its highest point in the last year, close to its highest point ever, and up 6.7% for the day so far.

    This sort of rise always makes me suspicious, especially on such huge volume as today. Maybe something's happening that the market hasn't been notified about yet?

  19. #19

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Looks like I was right. On the same day I posted last, the board made an announcement that they had "recently received approaches in relation to the ownership of GUD". Perpetual have sold off 2M+ of their shares in the company, no doubt for a very nice profit. On 12/7, Harbinger Capital Partners announced that they had acquired over 5% of the company.

    I guess the big question now is whether Harbinger and/or others will continue to buy and attempt a hostile takeover?

    But this isn't a mining stock, so I guess most of you don't care.

  20. #20
    Non illegitimis carborundum YELNATS's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Hills District, Sydney

    Default Re: GUD - GUD Holdings

    Quote Originally Posted by Kremmen View Post
    But this isn't a mining stock, so I guess most of you don't care.
    I certainly care. I've had a substantial (for me) holding in GUD for about 3 years. They've been an excellent yield stock paying a good fully franked dividend.

    I was attracted to GUD as they have become a well-diversified consumer goods business, and because of this they are able to ride out short term declines in any parts of their business.

    It's not clear to me how a takeover could improve their business greatly, as current management seem to have done a reasonable job so far.

    regards YN.
    The above comments should not be considered as financial advice. Readers should seek professional financial advice appropriate to their own personal circumstances.

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