CSL - CSL Limited

[kaisong]

Topical biotech company, price goes all the way down from start and later start raising!! watch this one, it may raise to $60 in the next few yrs!

[Jay-684]

any one have any thoughts/technical analysis on CSL?

I'm thinking of buying, as its popped up a few times over the past weeks with good reviews, however given its recent run, I dont know if buying now would be a good thing, or if the recent run would suffer a correction in the near future.

Any advice would be great, as I havent been able to find anything else here about the company

[Knobby22]

Look at the cervical vaccine thread for more info.

In my view this is a good stock long term (2 years +) as earnings will increase and there are some upsides including a new drug on the horizon.
This year may be a bit flat as they have to pay a % of their earnings to the company that they took their plasma production factories off.

Short term maybe a techie has an opinion.

[RichKid]

Just thought I'd post some graphs as people are interested, I'm a novice at this so don't take it as advice, haven't done much work on this but I'm surprised again at the fact that this is the third ASX200 stock I've noticed this week which appears to be forming a double top (others are UTB, AMP(triple top?), MAY).

The broader market index is also having another go to get through previous tops, so a lot of uncertainty in my view. From memory you need a break below the support/neckline of the double to for it to be confirmed. The higher lows now need a higher high for confirmation of the uptrend, perhaps on a lower trajectory if it come good- but might be the last gasp of the current uptrend. Likely to range bw 25 & 35 imo if it can't break through the resistance. For going long I'd personally wait for break of resistance and setlling above the top on volume but that's just my idea of a safe trade.

The longterm chart shows a nice double bottom and small H&S reversal pattern with a strong run until the recent break of the uptrend and current attempt at breaking through old highs. I haven't done any fib lines or retracement levels on this but it would be useful- appears to be oscillating around the 50% retracement level (ie midway bw previous high and low as shown on longterm chart).

[michael_selway]

Hi i noticed CSL dropped BIG from Jan 02 to Jun 03, then it began to rise again

Does anyone know the reasons why it dropped? any links?

thanks

MS

[ice]

Not one I follow but world over-supply of plasma was the big issue from memory.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...330601931.html


ice

[Prospector]

Dredging this one up from the archives.......

The CSL story this year has been spectacular in terms of ethical shares. Most recent has been the Gardasil story with regard to prevention of almost all cervical cancers. And last week they reduced the price so that all teen girls could be treated. (as an aside Barnaby Joyce said that girls shouldnt be treated because it might encourage them to become promiscuous. Yeh, right! Can you see the hormonally driven 17 year old thinking ...... "I musnt have sex in case I get cervical cancer!" pfft to that!)

But that is just one of the good news stories it has released.

Not to mention the share price which yesterday rose $4.89 to close later at $62.75.

Curious though, it has increased over $25 in 12 months (well, actually more like 9 months ) and not one mention on the forum!

[Knobby22]

Out of fashion (high PE) and the fact that McNamee went up against the big boys and risked the company by going into plasma. there was also distressed plasma company that had low technology that deliberately sold its plasma cheap to force someone to buy it. McNamee used the low plasma price to double the size of the plasma business by buying a good plasma business off a strong competitor. Oversold badly, it amazes me how a trend has momentum of its own.

I own quite a few. It is a very good company with good management and blue sky that invrests heavily in research. My personal valuation of the stock is around $85 neglecting blue sky so I will not be a seller at these prices. If the company stopped spending money on R+D the bottom line would be much higher.

I mentioned them a while back in this forum.

For my mind, the only true quality growth stock in the ASX

K22

[Prospector]

And currently up another $3.15 atm! Sorry Nobby, didnt see your post about CSL! I just did a search and came up with this thread and thought that duplicate threads were verbotten here!

The Ferret did a rather nice report on CSL today!

[michael_selway]

And currently up another $3.15 atm! Sorry Nobby, didnt see your post about CSL! I just did a search and came up with this thread and thought that duplicate threads were verbotten here!

The Ferret did a rather nice report on CSL today!

Great stock

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 231.3 293.3 365.5
DPS 68.0 80.5 102.9 122.6

Date: 14/12/2006
Author: Eli Greenblat
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
CSL is expected to enjoy strong profits in 2007, but analysts warn that 2008 could see a downturn. The Australian-listed biotechnology company reported on 13 December 2006 that profits will reach $A440m to $A460m in 2006-07. Analysts say a plasma shortage in the US has led to increased prices. However, they say the increase will be shortlived. The latest earnings guidance was 10 per cent up on the August 2006 forecast..

thx

MS

[chops_a_must]

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 231.3 293.3 365.5
DPS 68.0 80.5 102.9 122.6

Some crazy EPS forecasts there. Does anyone think there will be a negative impact on the share price when Gardasil gets competition later in the year?

[michael_selway]

Some crazy EPS forecasts there. Does anyone think there will be a negative impact on the share price when Gardasil gets competition later in the year?

heres some updated ones

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 246.7 305.9 366.0
DPS 68.0 86.6 104.4 123.5

thx

MS

[billhill]

Just read that CSL say they have developed a bird flu vaccine.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems...1/s1836551.htm

Very promising especially if they recieve orders from some of the SE asian countries.

[Prospector]

I cant find a thread for CSL which surprised me given that this company has soared in the last few months. Maybe the Mods will find it for me.

This is one share that I decided to buy several months ago because while I thought it would be a good performer price wise, it is a company that provides state of the art medical research to the world (Gardasil, Bird Flu vaccine to name the 2 most obvious) and so has become my ethical share.

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

Why is that? Are biomedical shares simply not exciting enough? Gardasil will save so many lives, save $$$ in medical treatment in the prevention of cervical cancer, yet barely a whisper - please tell me it isnt because its about women? Or do they need to discover a cure for prostate cancer before it gets talked about

[TheAbyss]

Hi

try looking here, CSL - CSL Limited

[Prospector]

Why didnt it come up in the search function then! Dammit, now it does! I wonder who had the blonde moment!

[fleathedog]

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

STOP REMINDING ME!!!!

I was personally told by a mates dad Prof. Ian Gust, a world renown expert on virology, that CSL was good buying at $15. Usually I am sceptical of even very knowledeable people talking about stocks. Great products don't necessarily mean great businesses.

But why, at a PE of 15 (if my memory serves me), with a consistant history history of profitability in a resiliant industry DID I F***ING IGNORE HIM?!?!?!?

[Knobby22]

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

Why is that? Are biomedical shares simply not exciting enough? Gardasil will save so many lives, save $$$ in medical treatment in the prevention of cervical cancer, yet barely a whisper - please tell me it isnt because its about women? Or do they need to discover a cure for prostate cancer before it gets talked about

I was thinking of posting.

The announcement today is great showing the great business sense of CSL management.

Also saw the following:-

Revenues ahead of expectations. Gardasil revenues were US$155 for the quarter and US$235m for the calendar year. CSL earns a net ~6% royalty on Gardasil sales. Excluding the $10m Gardasil sales in CSL’s FY06 year, the ramp-up of sales has outpaced MRE’s estimates for 1H07 by 44.7%. As a result, MRE have upgraded their FY07 royalty number by $10.9m to $52.0m ahead of CSL’s original guidance of $40–50 given at the FY06
result.

McNamee will be awash with cash soon and have a lazy balance sheet. We may get another takeover happening or a buyback next year. I predict that CSL will be a top 10 company in 5 years.

Also, don't forget this cervical vaccine makes up only a small amount of profit for this company. They have an amazing world wide plasma business and some great future drug prospects since taking over Zenyth (which I also had shares in). This includes an asthma cure!

[Prospector]

STOP REMINDING ME!!!!

I was personally told by a mates dad Prof. Ian Gust, a world renown expert on virology, that CSL was good buying at $15. Usually I am sceptical of even very knowledeable people talking about stocks. Great products don't necessarily mean great businesses.

But why, at a PE of 15 (if my memory serves me), with a consistant history history of profitability in a resiliant industry DID I F***ING IGNORE HIM?!?!?!?

You ignored Prof Gust Serves you right then

[>Apocalypto<]

This is a great share for the shorrt medium and long.

But I am only in short term trades. I have been having lots of fun since 11/06 I only added it to my list then!

I just got out yesterday pulled out a nice 6 dollar chunk!