DXS - Dexus Property Trust

[bowman]

I have no idea why this stock swings so rapidly and regularly, but it does and it's one of my favourite trading stocks.

The chart suggests it could be ready for another swing up and I am in today with a stop at .695

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I've been looking at DXS for a while just to see what it might be doing technically. After Wednesday's move I am thinking are we seeing a triple top form or will the small break hold and move on up? Time will tell.
Any discussion is fine but not interested in predictions.

[nulla nulla]

A lot of sideways movement combined with volume of turnover. Plenty of trading opportunities. How has the movement since April 2009 fitted in with your expectations?

[nulla nulla]

Further changes. I was looking for an upward break-out that didn't eventuate. I suspect the spate of downward property devaluations for 31/12/09 is having further negative impact on share prices across the sector.

Todays graph seems to indicate the possibility of a downward breakout?

[nulla nulla]

DXS went up, then DXS went down, providing another re-entry. The graph shows DXS running up to resistance levels arround $0.85 and the RSI graph shows DXS heading into the "overbought" area. Might be time to take profits and sit out for another re-entry, or can it go higher?

[So_Cynical]

I've been watching Dexus for quite some time and last nite decided that DXS would be my primary target for acquisition today, just after the open was successful at 0.77 .. Irony is i had to sell my small position in SLF to part finance this trade, due to my frustration at never being able to buy SLF at a low enough price ...and today SLF actually traded under 7.90 where i ideally wanted to buy it.

Anyway buying DXS under 0.77 should give a dividend yield of slightly over 8% so im happy with that going forward....also lots of upside in my opinion due to where we are in the real estate valuation cycle and potential for dividend increases going forward.
~

[nulla nulla]

I've been watching Dexus for quite some time and last nite decided that DXS would be my primary target for acquisition today, just after the open was successful at 0.77 .. Irony is i had to sell my small position in SLF to part finance this trade, due to my frustration at never being able to buy SLF at a low enough price ...and today SLF actually traded under 7.90 where i ideally wanted to buy it.

Anyway buying DXS under 0.77 should give a dividend yield of slightly over 8% so im happy with that going forward....also lots of upside in my opinion due to where we are in the real estate valuation cycle and potential for dividend increases going forward.
~

I was disappointed with todays retrace from $0.785 - $0.70 (after touching $0.76 early on) to the price range of $0.775 - $0.78 before the close of $0.78. Foolishly I had hoped it would hold $0.785 - $0.79 at close setting it up for further gains on Monday. It is due to go exdiv this month with a div of $0.0245 (or there-abouts) and I see this as giving it a value of $0.815 in the short term.
Should holders be worried about the prospective cost of refinancing debt in light of the European crisis? Surely after the increase in shares on issue and the reduction of debt, gearing etc, the European crisis should not have any negative effects on Australian reit's like the sub prime washout did?

[Julia]

Should holders be worried about the prospective cost of refinancing debt in light of the European crisis? Surely after the increase in shares on issue and the reduction of debt, gearing etc, the European crisis should not have any negative effects on Australian reit's like the sub prime washout did?

When I read this, I'm reminded of the weeks when everyone was saying how the sub-prime mess was just America's problem, no way would it affect us.
But this time, it's not banks defaulting but potentially governments which I'd have thought was way more worrying.

[So_Cynical]

this time, it's not banks defaulting but potentially governments which I'd have thought was way more worrying.

Its not like Government debt defaults are anything new.

• Mexico 1982
• North Korea 1987
• Argentina 1992
• Russia 1998

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_%28finance%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis

The world keeps spinning and continues on...interestingly Russia only 12 years later has one of the world's lowest GDP to debt ratios.

[drsmith]

REIT's generally have much more conservative balance sheets and distribution policies so going forward their performance is more likely to reflect their underlying assets.

If another credit squeeze were to occur the danger would be if it was longer term as this would impact more substantially on economies and hence property income. Short term credit risk is lower compared to the pre GFC peak.

Most of the blood has all ready been spilled and it will be a very, very long time before the plateau of 2007 is reclaimed.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EAXPJ&t=5y

[nulla nulla]

When I read this, I'm reminded of the weeks when everyone was saying how the sub-prime mess was just America's problem, no way would it affect us.
But this time, it's not banks defaulting but potentially governments which I'd have thought was way more worrying.

I also am aware of the initial false sense of security that existed in Australia that we were insulated from the sub prime crisis in America. Then the reality set in with the flow on of the cost of finance, the level of debt in businesses (particulalry those in the REIT sector) and the level of Australian investment in Sub Prime Mortgages.
I suspect there may be further pain ahead in our REIT sector. Hopefully REIT's such as Dexus with their lower European and American property exposure will be less affected.

Its not like Government debt defaults are anything new.

• Mexico 1982
• North Korea 1987
• Argentina 1992
• Russia 1998

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_%28finance%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis

The world keeps spinning and continues on...interestingly Russia only 12 years later has one of the world's lowest GDP to debt ratios.

Didn't Iceland default on its sovereign debt this year?

REIT's generally have much more conservative balance sheets and distribution policies so going forward their performance is more likely to reflect their underlying assets.

If another credit squeeze were to occur the danger would be if it was longer term as this would impact more substantially on economies and hence property income. Short term credit risk is lower compared to the pre GFC peak.

Most of the blood has all ready been spilled and it will be a very, very long time before the plateau of 2007 is reclaimed.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EAXPJ&t=5y

I suspect the plateau of 2007, where REIT's traded at a premium to Net Tangible Assets and paid dividends with a yeild of 10% plus are a thing of the past, now that most of them have diluted their share value to reduce gearing and yields have dropped to 6% - 8%.
At present prices DXS is providing a good return on investment. Holding them through any pending price fall/rises will not worry me as long as they don't experience "an unforeseen event" that obliges them to reduce the dividend.

[nulla nulla]

DXS closed on Friday 18-06-10 at $0.845. $0.845 has been a level of resistance this last week and for a moment yesterday it looked like it might be going to break out above $0.85. At one point the buyers outnumbered the sellers by 4 to 1.
The Relative Strength Index Chart shows the price has surged away from the moving average and is getting into "overbought" territory, whether it can go higher remains to be seen but it is still well discounted to the Net Tangible Asset value and the projected dividends still equate to a good yield for long term holders.
DXS is due to announce its dividend and will probably go ex-div on or about 24 June 2010. This could be drawing in buyers and helping the price creep up.

[So_Cynical]

DXS closed on Friday 18-06-10 at $0.845. $0.845 has been a level of resistance this last week and for a moment yesterday it looked like it might be going to break out above $0.85. At one point the buyers outnumbered the sellers by 4 to 1.
The Relative Strength Index Chart shows the price has surged away from the moving average and is getting into "overbought" territory, whether it can go higher remains to be seen but it is still well discounted to the Net Tangible Asset value and the projected dividends still equate to a good yield for long term holders.
DXS is due to announce its dividend and will probably go ex-div on or about 24 June 2010. This could be drawing in buyers and helping the price creep up.

I have a sell (part profit take) in at 0.865 so hoping it will break up a little coming on to the x-dividend date...its not uncommon for stocks to have 1 or 2 extraordinary up or down days.

[nulla nulla]

DXS posted their dividend of notice for this year end (30/06/10) yesterday. Final Div will be $0.0245, ex-div on 24/06/10, record date 30/06/10 and pay date in August. The price jumped quickly on open to $0.86 then settled back to trade all day between $0.85 and $0.855 befor rallying in the closing auction to close on $0.86.
This is a fairly good price recovery considering it has not been this high since December last year and it's highest price (since the GFC) was an opening price of $0.89 in November 09 before it fell to close the day at $0.88.
It may flick to $0.865 or higher today, now the dividend announcement is out in the public arena.

[So_Cynical]

I have a sell (part profit take) in at 0.865 so hoping it will break up a little coming on to the x-dividend date...its not uncommon for stocks to have 1 or 2 extraordinary up or down days.

I got lucky and got sold at the recent intra day high of 0.865...a week or so later and Dexus is back near my buy in price of about a month ago...DXS along with most of the property stocks are turning out to be great, in and out - support, resistance opportunity's.

[nulla nulla]

I got lucky and got sold at the recent intra day high of 0.865...a week or so later and Dexus is back near my buy in price of about a month ago...DXS along with most of the property stocks are turning out to be great, in and out - support, resistance opportunity's.

Well done, I closed out at a parcel at $0.86 and held some for the div. The fall back below $0.80 was faster than I expected. My previous prefered entry/support price of $0.78 has been adjusted down after the recent lows.

DXS is finding some support at the $0.79 level atm, which is a big gap from your $0.865 before it went exdiv.

[So_Cynical]

In on today's dip @ 0.775 my second DXS entry this year and hopeful that at some point in the near future ill be able to exit at above 0.85 same as last time...i find it a little strange that there seems to be so many (apparently) easy dividend/distribution plays available at the moment, DXS dipping down to the bottom of its trading channel a week or so before ex date just don't make alot of sense to me.

Distribution ex date of 23 December and a 2.59 CPS distribution sounds ok to me.

http://www.dexus.com/Media-Centre/AS...ch.aspx?nt=asx

[nulla nulla]

I was looking to get into dexus today at $0.775 to average down my purchase of $0.785 but the trade I wanted to close out in wbc didn't happen.

With the retrace in the REIT market I may sit on this trade until after the div and sell early next year when the price rebounds again.

[robusta]

I was looking to get into dexus today at $0.775 to average down my purchase of $0.785 but the trade I wanted to close out in wbc didn't happen.

With the retrace in the REIT market I may sit on this trade until after the div and sell early next year when the price rebounds again.

Good luck with that. DXS does not seem to have a great history of building shareholder wealth, I hope your trading works out. Maybe you can see something that I am missing?

[nulla nulla]

Good luck with that. DXS does not seem to have a great history of building shareholder wealth, I hope your trading works out. Maybe you can see something that I am missing?

Entry / Exit with a small profit x frequency. In the current climate not a long term holder but certainly worth trading the swings. Occaisionly hold for the div and wait for the post exdiv fall/rebound to close out the trade (div plus trade profit, double dip). As always dyor.