Thank you MRC & Co for a stimulating discussion in another thread on why a technical analyst could say if an index went over a certain level with retracement that it would be a buy and if it failed it would be a sell.
It really comes down to the VIBE of a stock or index or commodity or any other instrument you trade.
Those with good vibes prosper, those who fail don't have good vibes with the market they trade.
One of the sentiments I understand particularly from younger posters is that they are after the ONE TRUE PATH.
There is no such way.
It is a feeling one gets. Not a mechanistic buy sell.
Read tech/a's posts. He is a mechanical guy but underneath all his maths and systems is a guy who has done the hard yards. He has I presume THE VIBE.
THE VIBE is that which enables you to avoid the crowd, be contrarian, trust in yourself, smell trouble, see opportunities.
An example for me was MQG/MBL, Macquarie. I missed its breakout years ago from $8 and hit it again at $20.
Then everyone was saying this is the first Australian stock that's going to break $100. That for me was trouble. I was suspicious of their business model anyway, but this was the last straw. I got out at the $60 mark.
View the Film , The Castle, for any explanation of THE VIBE.