Ok, I don't mean that my arthritis tells me when the market is going to fall, but it seems to me that weather forcasting could be used to trade the insurers.
Sure, it's a no brainer that when some big weather event occurs its going to cost the insurers money and the listed stocks will drop. This seems to have happened with IAG the last few days due to the flooding on the NSW coast. Market well up the last two days but IAG down.
But what about using meteorology to get a jump on the market and short the insurers before a big weather event occurs? I'm a keen sailor and like to keep an eye on the synoptic maps. Its not hard to see when a low pressure system might form off the coast a few days ahead of it happening and even further ahead of it turning into a costly weather disaster. If you shorted the insurers then you could do well if things go as you expect, and if they don't no one notices and the share price does what it would have done anyway.
Wonder if there are any meteorologists out there who are making a little income on the side this way?
Of course shorting rules put a bit of a stop to this at the moment ...