Just wanted to get everyone's thoughts on the different stages and signs of economic recovery. We may well be some time away from any glipmse of recovery, but what are some factors that we should be looking out for.
Unemployment: To me, unemployment is an afterthought of the economy. Unemployment increases once it has been determined that the economy is in trouble, so you would imagine that unemployment will only improve once it has been determined that the economy is back on the mend. So if you wait around for signs of unemployment to get better, then you are probably going to miss the boat all together.
Petrol Prices: The price of petrol goes up with demand for oil. So if Petrol is going down, then it is a sign that people are travelling less, building less, buying less, producing less. If it goes up, then it is a sign that more money is being spent through travel, retail, business production and the economy is improving etc.
Stockmarket: Unlike unemployment which is an afterthought, the stockmarket is based on the speculation of the future. So if you wait for the market to start trending up, you are going to be getting in earlier then those relying on Unemployment data, however you are going to miss the initial and first stage of market recovery.
Obviously these are just my opinions that I have gathered over the last few months, but I would love to get some thoughts on them.
I would also like to hear any theories on other factors such as:
- Housing Prices
- Rental Prices
- Interest Rates
- Fixed Rates
- Average Wage
- Price of Gold
- Aussie Dollar
- Foreign Currencies
Disclaimer: I am not a Financial Advisor, Scientist, Historian, Maths Teacher, Priest, Doctor or Mechanic. I only have a Cert IV in team leadership and I don't even know or care for, the score of pie.