Research, reports and other stuff

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:04 PM

Credit Suisse's Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2009.

In it, CS discover that if you're timeframe is atleast 108 years, inflation and growth will ensure you make a profit on your equity portfolio (amongst other equally revolutionary ideas).

Toot toot!

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:08 PM

John Taylor - Author of the Taylor Rule.

Taylor asks the question what went wrong and modestly answers it by showing that had central banks followed HIS RULE, everything would have been hunky dory.

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:10 PM

Fitch puts out some of the best Emerging Market stuff IMHO. Anyone with an interest in the region should find something interesting.

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:12 PM

UBS - Economic Insights - By George

Financial instability, and the final countdown? More capital, bad banks and, where necessary, nationalisation

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:40 PM

Deutsche Bank - Bretton Woods II , protectionism and global economic activity.

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:47 PM

Credit Suisse put out a more meaty companion to the year book, posted earlier.

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:49 PM

One that's relavent to most here - Citibank asks if miners have found a base?

**doctorj** · 13th-February-2009, 10:50 PM

UBS' quants look at what would happen if all FTSE companies cut dividends.

**doctorj** · 14th-February-2009, 02:41 AM

A very witty, easy read from the Bank of England. One of the best pieces I've read about how the banks failed.

**doctorj** · 14th-February-2009, 02:45 AM

You (probably) read it here first - it looks like the tide may be about to go out on another Ponzi scheme (a'la Madoff). This time it's a Caribbean bank owned by a rich Texan famous for sponsoring a $20 million winner-takes-all game of 20/20 Cricket.

£8 bill of assets...

The financial press is just starting to get wind of this, but here's the original article that started it all published in Venezuala.

**doctorj** · 17th-February-2009, 12:40 AM

JP Morgan's FX market weekly

kennas · 17th-February-2009, 07:43 AM

Thanks doctorj, some good reading there. kennas

mattlaw · 17th-February-2009, 09:24 AM

Thanks Doctorj, keep up the good work. Much appreciated.

**doctorj** · 17th-February-2009, 11:17 PM

Interesting comparison. I wonder where things sit a month or so later?

**doctorj** · 17th-February-2009, 11:31 PM

It looks like the next evolution of the crisis will be bank's exposure to emerging markets through their subsidiaries. Moody's released a note this morning (attached) warning of it and since then Unicredit CDS increased to over 200bps.

Most banks with large exposures to emerging markets have been downgraded by S&P and remain on a negative outlook (eg. Raiffeisen, Unicredit & SocGen). Austria’s finance minister warned of the risk of an economic “catastrophe” in Ukraine triggering a “domino effect” of problems further west (rightly so - the Austrian banking sector is both highly exposed to emerging markets - 70% of assets - and highly leveraged). Just a 10% increase in the default rate in emerging markets would result in the failure of many Austrian banks.

Other Western countries with large exposures to emerging market banks are Spain (South America), Italy (Eastern Europe), Sweden (Baltics). A useful chart is attached to demonstrate.

What does this mean for ASX investors? Potentially the end of the "BR" in BRIC as the driver for... well... everything.

**doctorj** · 18th-February-2009, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doctorj

It looks like the next evolution of the crisis will be bank's exposure to emerging markets through their subsidiaries.

**doctorj** · 18th-February-2009, 04:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doctorj

You (probably) read it here first - it looks like the tide may be about to go out on another Ponzi scheme (a'la Madoff). This time it's a Caribbean bank owned by a rich Texan famous for sponsoring a $20 million winner-takes-all game of 20/20 Cricket.

**prawn_86** · 18th-February-2009, 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doctorj

To follow up - this just came through a few minutes ago.

Read more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b159fda-f...077b07658.html[/size]

**doctorj** · 18th-February-2009, 09:09 PM

This is from the Financial Times. The top line shows Stanford's alleged returns (interest on deposits) and the bottom shows the returns on the Dow.

**doctorj** · 18th-February-2009, 11:20 PM

"Alt A" mortgages the next wave.

Quote:

The sums involved are depressingly large. In the worst case, losses on the $600 billion of securitised Alt-A debt outstanding—roughly the same as the stock of subprime securities—could reach $150 billion, reckons David Watts of CreditSights, a research firm. Analysts at Goldman Sachs put possible write-downs on the $1.3 trillion of total Alt-A debt—including both securitised and unsecuritised loans—at $600 billion, almost as much as expected subprime losses. Add in option ARMs, a particularly virulent type of adjustable-rate loan, many of which are essentially the same as Alt-A, and the potential hit climbs towards $1 trillion.