Rafael appears to have the number of Roger, beating him and taking the torch after Wimbeldon.
This is a huge match as far as history goes, if Rafa wins, he moves to 6 slams, probably 7 after the French (which seems to be a given these days), putting him only 6 behind Fed with 5 years in hand. With that said, IF Nadal wins tonight, you would have to assume it would only be a matter of time until he takes out Feds new record (assuming he actually gets 2 more slams). BUT if Fed can win tonight, he takes the difference between the two to 9, with 5 years in Nadals favour, making it a hard ask for Rafa.
The head to head record from memory, is 12-6 to Rafa, but 9 of those are on clay. Whilst Federed holds a 3-2 winning record against Rafa on hard court.
Rafa will no doubt have a slight edge taken off him after his match against Verdasco, but if one man is fit enough and strong mentally enough to pull through, it would be he. However, on the other hand, if one man is good enough to push him to his mental limits, it's going to be Roger.
I've got Nadal as I backed him at the beginning of the tournament, but this one should be brilliant, to say the very least. Roger is craftier, comes to the net better, probably has a better return of serve, but Rafa will have an edge from the baseline, with his heavy shots and lack of errors, not to mention, pure workrate. Cannot wait.