Forex plays for 2009 - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Default Forex plays for 2009

    Time to get some opinions on what to expect on the currency front in 2009.

    The general consensus seems to be continued USD and YEN strength on the back of further stock market loses around the world. I tend to agree although some are suggesting the USD will go down the toilet. I'm placing the following bets:

    Short AUD/USD
    Short AUD/YEN
    Short EUR/USD

    I'm weighing in heaviest on AUD/YEN short since I think we are in for a fresh round of deleveraging in the first quarter of 2009. The terrible state of the Japanese economy should see lots of YEN repatriation and worldwide rising commodity inventories should see commodity currencies like the AUD getting clobbered. I think the ECB will continue cutting rates as the European economy deteriorates, they really won't have much choice when the stats already say disinflation and soon enough deflation. I think USD should strengthen as volatility remains high, but the first half of the year will tell the story. Of course, one has to remain nimble in these unusual times so as always it's important to review positions as we move along.

  2. #2
    tayser's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007

    Default Re: Forex plays for 2009

    Just as long as EUR/JPY & EUR/USD keep bouncing about on a daily basis then I'm happy

  3. #3

    Default Re: Forex plays for 2009

    Here's what i think:

    Short EUR/GBP
    Short EUR/AUD

  4. #4

    Default Re: Forex plays for 2009

    Friends most of the currencies are today suitable to short. Traders can short EUR/GBP.

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