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  1. #1
    Rotaredom wayneL's Avatar
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    Default The Next Bear Phase

    Firstly as I stated here some time ago, I'm still generally a bear, but that I didn't believe that we'd return to a bear market for quite some time.

    Lat night's Dow sinkage got me thinking... I don't think we are at the cusp of a major selloff yet, despite generally poor economic conditions and last night's action, mainly because Uncle Ben's helicopter is still fueled up and on standby.

    But it is IMO getting closer to being in the foreseeable future.

    So how about a bit of soothsaying? When is the next bear starting?

  2. #2
    Always Learning Tanaka's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Bonds up, S&P500 down. We are in a bear market right now! Nothing can save the US economy now (maybe I have been reading too much zerohedge.com). I challenge anyone to find me an economic metric on the US that has substantially improved since the GFC. Things are worse for the US now than during the GFC, Id go so far to say we never left the GFC. This is the second wave down baby. Hope you find your life preserver b4 the ship sinks.
    It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

  3. #3

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Tanaka View Post
    Bonds up, S&P500 down. We are in a bear market right now! Nothing can save the US economy now (maybe I have been reading too much zerohedge.com). I challenge anyone to find me an economic metric on the US that has substantially improved since the GFC. Things are worse for the US now than during the GFC, I’d go so far to say we never left the GFC. This is the second wave down baby. Hope you find your life preserver b4 the ship sinks.

    too many bears around , makes me start thinking like a bull . old rene had it right , buy in gloom and sell in boom , in my time frame its looking gloomy ... nudge nudge wink wink

  4. #4

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Tanaka View Post
    Bonds up, S&P500 down. We are in a bear market right now! Nothing can save the US economy now (maybe I have been reading too much zerohedge.com). I challenge anyone to find me an economic metric on the US that has substantially improved since the GFC. Things are worse for the US now than during the GFC, Id go so far to say we never left the GFC. This is the second wave down baby. Hope you find your life preserver b4 the ship sinks.
    I'll give you a good metric. The exchange rate of the US dollar. They can afford to export again. Might be cynical, but it has definitely changed for their better.
    What if they just raise the debt ceiling and go to QE3 ? Do they have a choice in this ? They can't default and they can't just say "well we tried.... now we are going to face reality" they can just debase their debt a bit more, much easier on the people.

    Alternatively, maybe they could bring all their military home, send them in to the investment banks and take all that gold and cash in the interest of national security. I swear Bin Ladens second in command is in Goldman Sachs vaults. and accounts.

    Sorry.

  5. #5
    Always Learning Tanaka's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by mr. jeff View Post
    I'll give you a good metric. The exchange rate of the US dollar. They can afford to export again.
    Good point mr. jeff

    I'll rephrase, find me a good metric that has substantially improved since the GFC that hasnt been unethically manipulated
    It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

  6. #6
    Money can't buy Poverty Glen48's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Every USA family owes just under 700K, Ben will wait until the Dow tanks and say I told you so and bring on printing pumps 104% with throttle up.

    There is no rush to buy back in after all the last depression took 27 years to get back to 1930 levels and this one will be worse than 30's.
    Thanks to the net we can keep up with World news and get bad news on time and most know about the last depression and will be aware of what a depression is all about.
    The Chinese bubble is about to pop very soon and take out all the commodity producing countries.

  7. #7

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen48 View Post
    There is no rush to buy back in after all the last depression took 27 years to get back to 1930 levels and this one will be worse than 30's.
    You're not driving taxis in Manilla are you.

    I don't see the up trend getting too far off track. Bear trap at the worst I reckon (hope).

  8. #8
    Always Learning Tanaka's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Has everyone seen this site?

    http://www.usdebtclock.org/
    It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

  9. #9

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Can't have a bear thread without a contribution from Marc Faber.


  10. #10

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Wysiwyg View Post
    You're not driving taxis in Manilla are you.

    I don't see the up trend getting too far off track. Bear trap at the worst I reckon (hope).

    I'm with you here. Not enough speculative money back in the market. Volumes are still down on pre GFC average, your average Joe isn't quitting to become a day trader. We have been trading sideways now for nearly 2 years, so I can't imagine there are too many weak holders in the market.

    In my mind the XAO would need to hit about 6000 before we look for the next down leg.

  11. #11

  12. #12

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by drsmith View Post
    Can't have a bear thread without a contribution from Marc Faber.
    Lol, I search youtube every week for more words from Marc Faber. He is my favourite TV investor personality by far - he actually knows what he is talking about (and his accent is awesome).
    The lecture he delivered to the Mises Institute was epic (and on youtube).

  13. #13

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    I saw him use the phrase 'multiplier effect'. That by itself was enough to warn anybody the guy has no value as a forecaster.
    'multiplier effect' is to economics as 'skyhook' is to civil engineering, or 'stomp' is to ballet.

  14. #14

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Tanaka View Post
    Has everyone seen this site?

    http://www.usdebtclock.org/
    I look at this site every now and again. I still get astonished by how quickly it rises.

  15. #15
    Off into the sunset Country Lad's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by drsmith View Post
    Can't have a bear thread without a contribution from Marc Faber.
    Ah yes, good old Marc - he has predicted 11 of the last 3 bear markets.

    Cheers
    Country Lad

  16. #16

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    I think this is the bottom, or close to, of Aus Equities. I think June wont do much but Spring is going to finally break that resistance at 5000.

    Been 90% cash since March and will start buying when technical indicators start turning up.
    "You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!" - Uncle Festivus

  17. #17

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by TabJockey View Post
    I think this is the bottom, or close to, of Aus Equities. I think June wont do much but Spring is going to finally break that resistance at 5000.
    Can you outline the basis for your belief above?

  18. #18

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Tanaka View Post
    Things are worse for the US now than during the GFC, Id go so far to say we never left the GFC.
    GFC ?!!!

    What GFC?

    We haven't even touched it yet - it's still coming!

    And it's gonna be bigger than anything we've seen to date! This one's gonna be the grandaddy of all that's gone before!

    (Amongst other things , I am anticipating that the DOW(n) Jones Index will drop below the 2000 level within my current lifetime.)

    P.S. This post is my optimistic assessment of the situation!

  19. #19

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by TabJockey View Post
    I think this is the bottom, or close to, of Aus Equities. I think June wont do much but Spring is going to finally break that resistance at 5000.

    Been 90% cash since March and will start buying when technical indicators start turning up.


    Market breadth compared to historical breadth during previous lows. The reaction of stocks to bad news, has declined. I get the feeling that the market has a high concentration of sturdy holders as opposed to weak hands.
    "You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!" - Uncle Festivus

  20. #20

    Default Re: The Next Bear Phase

    Quote Originally Posted by cynic View Post
    GFC ?!!!

    What GFC?

    We haven't even touched it yet - it's still coming!

    And it's gonna be bigger than anything we've seen to date! This one's gonna be the grandaddy of all that's gone before!

    (Amongst other things , I am anticipating that the DOW(n) Jones Index will drop below the 2000 level within my current lifetime.)

    P.S. This post is my optimistic assessment of the situation!
    You could be right but I hope you aren't.

    Thing is that if it all goes pear shaped again and some quite respected analysts are predicting just this then there will not be any capacity for bailouts.

    Pump priming the economies wont be an option and that means things could get very nasty indeed.

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