S&P 500 - Analysis and Trading

[wayneL]

Sorry if I don´t wright well, I come from Spain (Europe).

Hey Demiurgio, we ain't like them Yankee gringos, we know Spain is in Europe.

Welcome to the forum compadre.

[barney]

Hey Demiurgio, we ain't like them Yankee gringos, we know Spain is in Europe.

Lol ...... I hope Demiurgo (at least you could have spelt his name correctly Wayne!! ..) .... understands Australian humour ...... If not ...... he soon will

[Demiurgo]

Hey Demiurgio, we ain't like them Yankee gringos, we know Spain is in Europe.

Welcome to the forum compadre.

Thanks WayneL, but we don´t say "gringo" that is used in SudAmerica, mainly in México I think.

Lol ...... I hope Demiurgo (at least you could have spelt his name correctly Wayne!! ..) .... understands Australian humour ...... If not ...... he soon will

Surely it will take some time to understand Australian humour Barney, I don´t speak english well, last night I coul not sleep and that side of the word was the one active, thats for what I´m here , ever thought I do speak some english, the english I learned is the "Queen´s English" and I see there are some differences, anyway I will surely let my charts talk for me.

This is a CFD´s chart, so that don´t look at the price, it will allways be different from the Market, as the broker fixes it, there will allways some points of difference. S&P futures daily and three possible reversal points.

[Demiurgo]

Nasdaq 100 futures and it´s eternal chanel.

[Demiurgo]

An 4 hours Dax futures Chart, and another eternal chanel, wile we don´t break chanels long possibilities are in force.

[Demiurgo]

A way of seeing the bear market based on the Ibex 35 (Spanish market) weekly, I hope to be wrong , Europe is not well, and I´m afraid Spain is one of the reasons, even thought it seems we are working on to change this

[wayneL]

Thanks WayneL, but we don´t say "gringo" that is used in SudAmerica, mainly in México I think.

Correct.

But the word in fact originated in your country:

The word was used in Spain - although the word is nowadays rarely heard there - long before it crossed the Atlantic to denote foreign, non-native speakers of Spanish.[3]

The word is first attested in Terreros y Pando's Diccionario castellano con las voces de Ciencias y Artes y sus correspondientes en las 3 lenguas francesa, latina e italiana in 1786, which says:
Gringos llaman en Málaga a los extranjeros que tienen cierta especie de acento, que los priva de una locución fácil y natural Castellana; y en Madrid dan el mismo nombre con particularidad a los irlandeses

Gringos is what, in Malaga, they call foreigners who have any kind of accent that prevents them from speaking easy and natural Castillian; and in Madrid they give the same name in particular to the Irish.[4]
Most scholars agree that gringo is a variant of griego 'Greek' (cf. Greek to me);[5][6][7][8][9] but it has also been argued that griego > gringo is phonetically unlikely (it requires two separate steps, griego > grigo, and after, grigo > gringo), and that it may instead come from the language of the Spanish Romani, Caló, as a variant of (pere)gringo 'wayfarer, stranger'.[6]
Its entry in a 1817 French-Spanish dictionary, written by Antonio de Capmany,[10] includes:
.. hablar en griego, en guirigay, en gringo.[11]

... to speak in Greek, in "guirigay", in "gringo". Gringo, griego: aplícase a lo que se dice o escribe sin entenderse.[12]

Gringo, Greek : applies to what is said or written without understanding it.
Also in common Spanish language it is frequent to say "hablar en chino" (to speak in Chinese) to refer to somebody whose language is difficult understand, re-enforcing the notion that alluding to other nations is a frequent "cliché". Johann Jakob von Tschudi observed that the term "gringo" was used in Lima, Peru in the 1840s:
Gringo is a nickname applied to Europeans. It is probably derived from Griego (Greek). The Germans say of anything incomprehensible, "That sounds like Spanish,"--and in like manner the Spaniards say of anything they do not understand, "That is Greek." [13]

Nothing to do with the S&P 500 however.

[Demiurgo]

Ladies and gentlemen, the Nasdaq 100 is still in his chanel, but lets have a look to this engulfing bearish, it doesn´t tell us any good thing. Be carefull there out

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, BoE and Fed out saying basically their liquidity dump is over and everybody knows after LTRO2 end of Feb (which already has high expectations factored in) then the ECB is in the same boat, hence the global liquidity push dries up other than perhaps more from Japan down the road.

Could be a good time to at least squeeze a long market.

Then again, so hard to fight liquidity, I would prefer to be buying dips here rather than trying to pick highs.

[sinner]

Yeh, BoE and Fed out saying basically their liquidity dump is over and everybody knows after LTRO2 end of Feb (which already has high expectations factored in) then the ECB is in the same boat, hence the global liquidity push dries up other than perhaps more from Japan down the road.

Could be a good time to at least squeeze a long market.

Then again, so hard to fight liquidity, I would prefer to be buying dips here rather than trying to pick highs.

As usual in the US markets, an increase in volume corresponded to a nice bear day. a little more pronounced on the NQ it seems than ES. Not sure it qualifies as "climactic", so maybe you are right on the cracker buys MRC. My swing system isn't long yet, but I can see a few of the tighter mean reversion systems were probably happy longs into last nights close of the QQQ.

What do you think MRC, does more (relative) volume mean more crackers out of the NQ vs ES?

[MRC & Co]

As usual in the US markets, an increase in volume corresponded to a nice bear day. a little more pronounced on the NQ it seems than ES. Not sure it qualifies as "climactic", so maybe you are right on the cracker buys MRC. My swing system isn't long yet, but I can see a few of the tighter mean reversion systems were probably happy longs into last nights close of the QQQ.

What do you think MRC, does more (relative) volume mean more crackers out of the NQ vs ES?

Yep, for a long while now, any high vol down day has been the goods to buy in the US and makes even more sense now with the liquidity bull behind an overall underweight and underallocated market (despite perhaps long short-term spec positioning).

I'm the same, I have a long swing system that didn't get long because we didn't get a deep enough pullback. But prop entries on discretionary trading are long.

I'm not sure on NQ vs ES, I don't do much spreading to be honest Sinner, but I think the NQ could continue to outperform until upto the FB IPO. That, IMHO, will mark a high in the NQ (at least medium-term) or perhaps just relative.

[MRC & Co]

but I can see a few of the tighter mean reversion systems were probably happy longs into last nights close of the QQQ.

Yep, and the trend followers managed to avoid the whip, based on NE CTA index and sub-trend.

[chrislp]

Has S&P analysis even been relevant for the last two years?

I'd say NASDAQ composite, DJ transports & Russel 2000 have more relevance.

[MRC & Co]

Has S&P analysis even been relevant for the last two years?

I'd say NASDAQ composite, DJ transports & Russel 2000 have more relevance.

Relevant to what?

[Timmy]

Relevant to what?

Yep, same question from me.

[sinner]

I'm the same, I have a long swing system that didn't get long because we didn't get a deep enough pullback. But prop entries on discretionary trading are long.

Nice one then, I don't trade equity mean reversion in bull markets, so had to sit that one out.

[MRC & Co]

Nice one then, I don't trade equity mean reversion in bull markets, so had to sit that one out.

I find mean rev entries in equities and bonds as a whole are generally a lot more profitable than breakouts. Vice-versa on commodities.

[sinner]

I find mean rev entries in equities and bonds as a whole are generally a lot more profitable than breakouts. Vice-versa on commodities.

Well, I definitely agree with your statement but my research indicates pretty clearly the profits of mean reversion (especially those tighter systems which would have jumped on last week) are largely derived from equity bear markets so as a matter of efficient capital use I switch trading strategies depending on the equity market regime.

Funnily enough, once we are in an equity bull I am usually looking for breakouts in the index components or to swing trade the index itself.

[chrislp]

Sorry I should have been clearer.

Relevant to US market analysis. If you trade the futures contract that's obviously a different story but if you trade US stocks I find that the NASDAQ & DJ transports give leading & better signals for turnarounds.

I was curious if others thought the same but maybe this should be in a separate thread.

[MRC & Co]

Well, I definitely agree with your statement but my research indicates pretty clearly the profits of mean reversion (especially those tighter systems which would have jumped on last week) are largely derived from equity bear markets so as a matter of efficient capital use I switch trading strategies depending on the equity market regime.

Funnily enough, once we are in an equity bull I am usually looking for breakouts in the index components or to swing trade the index itself.

Ah yes, this is why the tighter mean rev entries were prop, becuase they reflected my thoughts we are going into a low vol grind higher as I was discussing with WayneL on the previous page. Systematically I agree though and otherwise only look for deeper pullbacks.