OIL AGAIN!

[wayneL]

Oil seems to have gone off everybodies radar for the moment as the price has eased off. But the long term problems have not gone away as this article points out.

http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex...eakoil2014.htm

Cheers

[positivecashflow]

Quote: I am always asked about Oil prices. Here is my prediction as it will affect the market as a Bullish catalyst. Oil prices will fall during the year to $35 and will likely bounce. Expect Volatility. If $35 is penetrated then strong support is at $30. $50 is major resistance here at the beginning of the year.

[wayneL]

Well I'm not really one for forecasts, but I think the next 30 days will set the tone for the rest of the year, all things being equal...and barring any left field developments.

I see ~$40.50 (feb contract) being the critical level, and many suspition is that it will break to the downside... but I am on the sidelines at the moment.

Cheers

[positivecashflow]

Quote: Oil prices have fallen slightly Wednesday despite a rise in crude inventory levels last week. Crude inventory levels fell by 3.3 million barrels, but traders have been encouraged by a rise in distillate and gasoline inventory levels. Of late, oil prices have been fluctuating around the $43 a barrel level. There remain concerns about possible terrorist activity later this month during the Presidential inauguration and the election in Iraq.

[stefan]

Not to mention that it also depends on the rest of the winter which so far has been very mild.

I don't see a major reason why oil would drop significantly as there is no indication other than the mild winter that demand will actually decrease anytime soon.

Happy trading

Stefan

PS: Very interesting article Wayne. Thanks for posting it.

[Bonk]

No one can predict oil ? Price is back over USD $ 45

OIL IS KING !

[UraniumFuture]

Peak oil is forecast for this year or next according to Matt Simmons, adviser on energy to Bush/Cheney, and also Colin Campbell, respected oil industry figure from the UK. What does that mean for investing? It means get the f#ck out of stocks vulnerable to high oil prices and into stocks that benefit from high oil prices. They are few and far between but obviously oil stocks with good reserves will do very well. The other area is uranium and there is bricks and mortat fundamentals to support this.

Global consumption has been steadily climbing up to around 60,000 tonnes per annum. Half of this is pulled from the ground and the rest comes from desembled weapons inventories maining in good old Russia! However these inventories are about to run down at a point in time where countries around the world ramp up nuclear power plans. The cost of uranium account for only 5% of the cost of nuclear energy with the rest coming from plant establishment and maintenance. Uranium recently hit a 20 year high of US$20.70 /lb and has continued to rally regardless of oil prices coming back from their US$57 /barrel highs in late 2004. Australia has around 45% of the known global resource that is currently able to be mined at these prices and only three mines are in production in Australia. One is the Beverley mine down in SA which is not listed on the ASX or anywhere for that matter. It is privately owned by the US giant General Atomics. The other two mines are WMC's Olympic Dam and ERA's Ranger Mine. All the market fundamentals point to a continued rally in uranium stocks this year. Keep an eye on the uranium price in particular (uxc.com). The best thing about this commodity unlike gold and silver is that if you want a piece of the action you have to buy shares. You can't physically buy uranium. There are some great Candian stocks also and investors over there are much more aware of the potential of this sector of the energy market.

There are only 4 uranium stocks listed on the ASX. Paladin Resources (PDN) was up 17% today and the buy orders for tomorrow suggest more upside. ERA, Australia's biggest producer of Uranium were up 30c today to $6.70. No surprise WMC Resources is a takeover target. It has the largest Uranium reserves in OZ. And the other speculative is Summit (SMM). Speculative not because it is looking for uranium, speculative because it has proven reserves in Queensland where uranium mining is banned. Sustained periods of high oil prices and inevitable high uranium prices will see the QLD govt allow its reserves to be mined. So the value is there just they can't access it which is actually a strong positive if you consider the price of uranium will only get more expensive. Buy it and forget about it!

[Joe Blow]

UraniumFuture,

Please try and avoid posting the same cut and pasted information in more than one thread and lets try and keep the threads ON TOPIC.

Other than that, welcome to the forums.

[wayneL]

A different perspective:

http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/index.html

[RichKid]

Quote: Originally Posted by wayneL Oil seems to have gone off everybodies radar for the moment as the price has eased off. But the long term problems have not gone away as this article points out. http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex...eakoil2014.htm Cheers

[wayneL]

Quote: Originally Posted by RichKid Timely to visit your remarks Wayne! January 2005 was a long time ago now but oil has again taken a breather. When will the speculators move in again and how far will it jump, if at all? Chart suggests a descending wedge (also known as a bullish wedge), approaching a previous congestion zone, as occurs at previous support/resistance areas, I expect it'll consolidate or bounce off imo. Can't see it falling any lower than 56 (support level) when supply still seems to be low. I've been watching oil and gold recently and have to admit I never expected both to retrace this far so quickly.

[wayneL]

RK my analysis:

Oil has been in a deep retracement since August, and in the last couple of sessions has dropped below .618 retracement, but is in a potential support level (monthly fibzone).

But Commitment of Traders Data (COT) is showing that the large commercial oil traders are nett long….and the longest they’ve been in the last 18 months. This is bullish.

The large spec traders are nett short, the shortest they’ve been for 18 months, this is also bullish.

View charts & COT data here (file was too big to attach)

[RichKid]

Quote: Originally Posted by wayneL However, the commercial gold traders are nett short. FWIW

[RichKid]

Quote: Originally Posted by wayneL RK my analysis: Oil has been in a deep retracement since August, and in the last couple of sessions has dropped below .618 retracement, but is in a potential support level (monthly fibzone). But Commitment of Traders Data (COT) is showing that the large commercial oil traders are nett long….and the longest they’ve been in the last 18 months. This is bullish. The large spec traders are nett short, the shortest they’ve been for 18 months, this is also bullish.

[wayneL]

Quote: Originally Posted by RichKid Will post a chart soon with pretty lines and dazzling colours- if I can get it right.

[markrmau]

Quote: Originally Posted by wayneL ....the large commercial oil traders are nett long…. The large spec traders are nett short, the shortest they’ve been for 18 months,

[doctorj]

Crazy stuff last night. Henry Hub spot gas up more than 20%, New York Gate prices up just a bee's **** short of 40%.

[Smurf1976]

Quote: Originally Posted by doctorj Crazy stuff last night. Henry Hub spot gas up more than 20%, New York Gate prices up just a bee's **** short of 40%.

[RichKid]

Quote: Originally Posted by wayneL Oh I like those dazzling colours on charts Will look forward to it.

[TjamesX]

From a peak oil conference in Perth;

Quote: GLOBAL oil demand could start outstripping supply in the next four years, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). In Perth yesterday to launch the association's Australian chapter, ASPO president Professor Kjell Aleklett, a Swedish energy expert, said 54 of the 65 major oil-producing countries had already reached their peak production levels. He warned that supply was likely to be unable to meet demand between 2010 and 2020. "We think that 2010 is more likely than 2020 but when it comes to planning of energy issues, energy in the future and so on, this is a very short time and we must act now," Aleklett said. He said four oil fields the size of the North Sea would need to be found for oil production to meet demand in 2025. "This is just not possible," he said.