OIL AGAIN!

[Smurf1976]

Quote: Originally Posted by rederob The Saudis reckon they can knock our 12.5m barrels a day if they have to, when the market turns. I think they will have to do that and more, as unconventional oil is presently too expensive and monies to ramp output are not being invested.

[gooner]

Quote: Originally Posted by Smurf1976 Worth noting that they have claimed 12 - 12.5 mmbpd capacity for around three decades now and have never actually produced at that level, at least not for any significant period, according to accepted data sources. Even more worth noting that Saudi output during 2007 and 2008's high prices was lower than in 1980 and well below the claimed 12.5 million barrel per day capacity. So I'd say that if they really do have that capacity then either there's some technical reason why they don't want to use it (can't be sustained, poor quality oil, ports can't handle the volume etc) or they've decided that $145 per barrel was not a high enough price to warrant that level of production. My personal thinking is that this is their capacity to export from all sources which includes drawdown of above ground stocks. That is, they can ship 12.5mmbpd but the amount taken from the ground would be lower. So in effect it's the capacity of the ports and not the capacity of the oil fields. That observation is simply based on the evidence that, for whatever reason, they have never appeared to want to go to that level and that whenever production approaches 10.0 mmbpd it is soon scaled back even if prices and demand are still rising, a scenario that points to them not being able (or willing) to sustain output at that level no matter what the market situation at the time. Time will tell but I'll be truly surprised if we see Saudi production average more than 10.0 mmbpd over any calendar year. If they really do have the capacity then they've been incredibly disciplined at not using it thus far.

[Smurf1976]

Quote: Originally Posted by gooner Peak oil is coming (or is here) and we better get used to it

[Wysiwyg]

Quote: Originally Posted by jonojpsg It's unbelievable to me that the Australian government is not doing something serious about Peak Oil, eg implementing a hydrogen economy.

[Smurf1976]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wysiwyg Either there isn`t any near to medium term oil problems or the powers-that-be are blind to any near to medium term oil supply problems. I can`t believe it is the latter. Especially the Americans.

[Wysiwyg]

Quote: Originally Posted by Smurf1976 In my opinion the "is there a problem" debate has been settled and the answer is "yes". The world didn't produce enough oil at $20 to keep prices at that level in the face of surging consumption - that in itself is a problem.

[gooner]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wysiwyg I see what you type Smurf but Chinese new car sales are out pacing the Americans at present which doesn`t indicate any government concern about lack of oil. Jobs and money is of far greater importance if there is a real oil problem. Over I million cars in March this year! Can you pinpoint why any of these large countries are adding more and more fuel guzzlers to the world if there is an oil supply problem? Thanks Smurf.

[Wysiwyg]

Quote: Originally Posted by gooner But as demand rises and given inelasticity of oil price, the price will start going through the roof

[lsj84]

China remains as a wild card. The past years growth was mainly driven by the export led activities. around 50% of the products made in China are sold overseas, of which 1/3 is to the US. domestic consumption is weak and remains weak until the gov. can dish out a proper welfare system. Car sales growth wont be sustainable if there is no more roads to be built as quickly.

but with money printing going on in the US, there is a fundamental support to the oil price. but in aussie terms, oil price remains calm, which may not be relevent to the stock prices though.

[jonojpsg]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wysiwyg I see what you type Smurf but Chinese new car sales are out pacing the Americans at present which doesn`t indicate any government concern about lack of oil. Jobs and money is of far greater importance if there is a real oil problem. Over I million cars in March this year! Can you pinpoint why any of these large countries are adding more and more fuel guzzlers to the world if there is an oil supply problem? Thanks Smurf.

[Smurf1976]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wysiwyg I see what you type Smurf but Chinese new car sales are out pacing the Americans at present which doesn`t indicate any government concern about lack of oil. Jobs and money is of far greater importance if there is a real oil problem. Over I million cars in March this year! Can you pinpoint why any of these large countries are adding more and more fuel guzzlers to the world if there is an oil supply problem? Thanks Smurf.

[Wysiwyg]

Quote: Originally Posted by Smurf1976 Oil was easier than all of those. As long as it's not spilled into the water, it's a lesser evil environmentally than most of the alternatives. No flooded valleys, no radioactive waste, no mountain tops chopped off and, compared to wood, minimal air pollution when it's burned.

[Smurf1976]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wysiwyg Thanks for your input. Two things on this that I think you over-looked and they be 1) the environmental impact with oil e/p i.e. land & sea clearing for e/p, the fracturing fluids (oils/acids/polymers). and 2) the derivatives, mainly petrol and diesel, when burnt emit toxic fumes which are both visible and invisible and from a daily global view would have to be the largest air polluter. Also oil burns a thick, black, acrid smoke and a good example was the wells in Iraq set alight during the wars. $$

[sandybeachs]

i'm sure plenty of investors are happy with seeing the POO increasing.

short term i'd like to see it settle around US$80bbl.

[weatherbill]

price of oil should continue on a slight path up in price this season.

I think it take s abreak this spring and comes back down after us travel season is over and more financial woes are announced in a october.
aug sept is hurricane season in US and sometimes, oil spikes if a gulf of mexico hcane takes out oil refineries and platforms

[trendtrader]

Any technical traders think thats a double top forming on oil???

[MRC & Co]

Sheesh! Is this oil sell-off a result of the G8 committment to reduce emissions? It's the only thing I can think of.

[Naked shorts]

Quote: Originally Posted by MRC & Co Sheesh! Is this oil sell-off a result of the G8 committment to reduce emissions? It's the only thing I can think of.

[MRC & Co]

Quote: Originally Posted by Naked shorts I think deflation sentiment is coming back a little bit, Gold has fallen recently aswell

[Trembling Hand]

Quote: Originally Posted by MRC & Co Sheesh! Is this oil sell-off a result of the G8 committment to reduce emissions? It's the only thing I can think of.