Skill vs. Luck PDF

[Timmy]

Great article (PDF format) from Michael Maboussin:

Quote: Outcomes from many activities—including sports, business, and investing—are the combination of skill and luck. Most people recognize that skill and luck play a role in results, yet they have a poor sense of the relative contribution of each. The ability to properly untangle skill and luck leads to much better thinking about most day-to-day outcomes, and allows for sharply improved decision making.

[So_Cynical]

I'm surprised no one has posted the usual "the harder i work the luckier i get" rubbish.

[Timmy]

Quote: Originally Posted by So_Cynical I'm surprised no one has posted the usual "the harder i work the luckier i get" rubbish.

[tech/a]

Often LUCK puts you in a position which if you have the SKILL you can benifit from.

[Dunger]

It wasn't luck that I read that pdf, it was all skill.

[tech/a]

Quote: It wasn't luck that I read that pdf, it was all skill.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Quote: Originally Posted by tech/a Often LUCK puts you in a position which if you have the SKILL you can benifit from.

[motorway]

Quote: Originally Posted by It's Snake Pliskin Or, The skill (knowledge) puts you in a position in which you can benefit from the resultant luck.

[brty]

Luckily I have the skills to know when something I'm reading has assumptions that are not necessarily true.
As I have stated in other threads, I don't believe in random, yet that article associates luck with random in a normal distribution, do we have any evidence that there is a correlation there??

brty

[white_goodman]

a lot of people are fooled by randomness...

[Garpal Gumnut]

tech/a is on the money with luck vs skills imho.

A quote from Seneca the Roman philosopher.

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

gg

[johnnyg]

Quote: Originally Posted by tech/a Often LUCK puts you in a position which if you have the SKILL you can benifit from.

[Wysiwyg]

Since when did 7 x 7 = 48
The lottery winner said, "I dreamed of the number seven for seven straight nights. And 7 times 7 is 48".
Pulling the pud there I think since 7x7 = 49 when I went to school.

Anyway as far as luck and skill goes with securities trading, there is the old "Good luck Bad luck story". One version below.

Quote: Good Luck Bad Luck! There is a Chinese story of a farmer who used an old horse to till his fields. One day, the horse escaped into the hills and when the farmer's neighbors sympathized with the old man over his bad luck, the farmer replied, "Bad luck? Good luck? Who knows?" A week later, the horse returned with a herd of horses from the hills and this time the neighbors congratulated the farmer on his good luck. His reply was, "Good luck? Bad luck? Who knows?" Then, when the farmer's son was attempting to tame one of the wild horses, he fell off its back and broke his leg. Everyone thought this very bad luck. Not the farmer, whose only reaction was, "Bad luck? Good luck? Who knows?" Some weeks later, the army marched into the village and conscripted every able-bodied youth they found there. When they saw the farmer's son with his broken leg, they let him off. Now was that good luck or bad luck? Who knows? Author Unknown

[tech/a]

"Two reps from a shoe company were sent to China to investigate shoe sale opportunities there.
When they returned they were quized at a board meeting
One said I wouldnt waste your money NO ONE wears shoes!
The other Said get over there as quick as you can NO ONE wears shoes!"

While the above is a fable its pretty close to the truth when it comes to Aussi Wine sales in China!