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Old 28th-January-2010, 04:22 PM   #21
condog
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonojpsg View Post
Vindicated Ann out re estimated costs of $51/t.

They have CONSERVATIVELY used the benchmark price for their estimates of potential margins, but even so we are looking at $28/t margin

So by year end IFE could be raking in $56m a year - not bad seeing as that is their current entire MC!

If they get spot prices, that could double, which is what their SP should be doing (at least)!!
This is an exciting prospect for the tiny IFE and TRF whi has 50% owernship plus 20% of whichery hill...

So technically IFE will retain 40% of revenue from Witchery and TRF will obtain 60% roughly...

IFE sp was only 35c or so when Witchary became known to the market and it is now 1.27 or so. So the witchery project has been somewhat priced in already now....

Calcs from a different perspective would be 40% of 56M = 22M additional revenue / 40M shares = 55c net earnings per share..... this still got to do bank feasability , so still some risk..... if it proceeds its dirt cheap....if it doesnt its dog dear..... so probably in the ball park at present.....

Once its decides to proceed shorly we would expect a substantial sp rise...

Its a classic risk reward punt.....

Safer to go with TRF which has good exposure but also has plenty of other plays...IMO

TRF has a market cap of $65M so its not much bigger, will get a bigger chunk of the revenue if this proceeds, plus has its other projects...
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Old 28th-January-2010, 10:08 PM   #22
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Quote:
Originally Posted by condog View Post
This is an exciting prospect for the tiny IFE and TRF whi has 50% owernship plus 20% of whichery hill...

So technically IFE will retain 40% of revenue from Witchery and TRF will obtain 60% roughly...IFE sp was only 35c or so when Witchary became known to the market and it is now 1.27 or so. So the witchery project has been somewhat priced in already now....

Calcs from a different perspective would be 40% of 56M = 22M additional revenue / 40M shares = 55c net earnings per share..... this still got to do bank feasability , so still some risk..... if it proceeds its dirt cheap....if it doesnt its dog dear..... so probably in the ball park at present.....
Uh uh Condog, TRF own 50% of IFE and 20% of Wilcherry, so IFE will get 80% of Wilcherry income, but TRF will benefit by the respective increase in value of IFE.

Thus 80% of $56m which is $44m/40m = $1.10 per share.

A VERY attractive prospect IMO and I'm loading up
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Old 29th-January-2010, 10:40 AM   #23
condog
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonojpsg View Post
Uh uh Condog, TRF own 50% of IFE and 20% of Wilcherry, so IFE will get 80% of Wilcherry income, but TRF will benefit by the respective increase in value of IFE.

Thus 80% of $56m which is $44m/40m = $1.10 per share.

A VERY attractive prospect IMO and I'm loading up
Hmm yours is true if they get to retain 100% of earnings.... if however they are forced to pay earnings, then mine is true.... lets meet halfway.... Its a matter of definition.....

One way or the other TRF stand to IMO possibly gain significnatly from IFE, where as IFE may gain significantly and is relient on this project....

Im not saying its not a good investment, just comparing the two...
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Old 3rd-February-2010, 12:38 PM   #24
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Just thought I would post this information on their web site, they have interesting information, video ect. This stock could be a little gem with the cheap costs on a premium product and a mine that could be starting by years end.
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Old 4th-February-2010, 11:09 AM   #25
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

IFE AND MAU followers

Did you find any thing interesting in a recent report in a prominent newsletter about IFE and MAU with the holding by TRF ?

I read it but can not discuss due to copyright reasons.

I did not see any reflection in market however which normally happens with such speculative report .

Any way I will wait to see what others are saying.
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Old 13th-February-2010, 11:00 PM   #26
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Have been continuing to hold and watch this. With 1MTpa locked in (at hopefully near spot prices?) this has GOT to do some major rerating over the course of the year IMO.

Current MC of $57m

Potential income assuming they get a price of $100/t

2MTpa x $45 = $90m x 80% (TRF hold 20%)
= $72m.

Now you can't tell me that doesn't look good

IFF production happens this year and IO price holds up, I predict IFE will sit somewhere between $200-$300m MC by years end Hang on, I think I;ve just convinced myself to buy more
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Old 14th-February-2010, 08:42 AM   #27
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonojpsg View Post
Current MC of $57m

Potential income assuming they get a price of $100/t

2MTpa x $45 = $90m x 80% (TRF hold 20%)
= $72m.
jono, is that $72m before royalties and tax and any other little cost after the basic Opex - Sales number crunch? Is your $100/t spot and they are going to sell into spot or are they going to have to forward contract at a bit lower? Any debt to pay off? I haven't read through much of the thread, just checking.
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Old 14th-February-2010, 02:38 PM   #28
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Quote:
Originally Posted by kennas View Post
jono, is that $72m before royalties and tax and any other little cost after the basic Opex - Sales number crunch? Is your $100/t spot and they are going to sell into spot or are they going to have to forward contract at a bit lower? Any debt to pay off? I haven't read through much of the thread, just checking.
Yep before tax etc. I assumed current spot of $125 and benchmark of $60 and took something closer to spot, especially given current talk of big 3 ditching the benchmark system!

NO DEBT which is a biggie, so assume royalties of say 3% revenue and 30% tax and we get down to more like $50m. Still looks attractively price at the mo and if we apply a conservative PE of 5 values them in the middle of my range.
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Old 18th-March-2010, 01:17 PM   #29
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

too late to hop onto this stock?

does the price already reflect future production of the iron ore?

(yes that is probably a stupid question...)
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Old 18th-March-2010, 09:06 PM   #30
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

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Originally Posted by matty77 View Post
too late to hop onto this stock?

does the price already reflect future production of the iron ore?

(yes that is probably a stupid question...)
While it's always important to DYOR, if you scan back over the last couple of pages, you'll see that IMO the current SP is approx 1/4 of the price I believe reflects fair value IF/WHEN IFE get 2Mtpa trucking out.

Based on their projected cash cost of $55/t and assuming they get $85 (looks likely given push by big 3 for near spot pricing for the year ahead), they will be making $50m net a year (take out 20% for TRF). That is almost their current MC, so it seems HIGHLY unlikely that Mr Market will accept that ratio. An appropriate ratio might be 4x earnings, which implies a 4x SP.

All based on current situation though which could change rapidly, given the way the world is!!
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Old 18th-March-2010, 09:56 PM   #31
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Default Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

thanks for your reply, appreciated.



ill take a closer look at this stock i think.

thanks again.
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