ADI - Adelphi Energy

[EEE]

Did anyone ever hazard a price target for if things go well at Sugarloaf? The quartlery says 7 TCF equivalent is a possibility.

Anyone care for an educated guess? (as I can't provide one)

[Agentm]

hey eee

valuations done by hartleys in feb 09 see's upside on $1.50 based on what they knew then, and no consideration for eagleford at that stage, just chalks and yemen and cash.. since then the yemen deal went through for one of the two yemen blocks adi had, cash is still to arrive.

in the 2008 annual report chris had this to say on the chalks (remember chalks was all they talked about, under strict orders to not mention the eagleford at that stage)

Overall, the Sugarloaf plus greater Sugarkane area is
thought to occupy at least 200,000 acres with a resource
potential of 500 million barrels of condensate plus 3
TCF of gas. Sugarloaf area mean potential reserves are
estimated to be 50 mmbbls of condensate plus 300 BCF
of gas – of which Adelphi’s share is 10 mmbbls and 60
BCF.


recently in the half yearly chris at adi released this statement regarding the region and talked up for the first time the secondary and imho larger target that ConocoPhillips finally opened up to and publically stated in early 2009 was a big part of their future exploration.. the primary target- the eagleford shale adi are now free to discuss the eagleford but not to discuss the COP wells atm in any detail.

Sugarloaf prospectivity can be summarized as follows:

• It is prospective for both the Chalk and Eagle Ford. Future completions may involve drilling horizontally in the Eagle Ford, then fracture stimulating to draw hydrocarbons
via induced fractures from both the Eagle Ford shale and the Austin Chalk.

• It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas – higher than the 50 to 100 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in Petrohawk areas)

• The Kennedy well is believed capable of producing at rates comparable to the Petrohawk wells when fracture stimulated over the whole lateral (currently only 600’ has been lightly fracture stimulated and ~3,000’ remains to be multi-stage fracced)

• Sugarloaf has similar geological attributes to the Petrohawk areas and if Petrohawk measured gas in place estimates of 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres are applied to the entire 23,000 acre Sugarloaf area, the Sugarloaf in-place resource size could be in the order of 7 TCF equivalent.


so based on in place resource of 7 tcf in the eagleford and the production from the eagleford at kennedy and the conocophillips wells @ 250 bo per 1 mmcfg there is reason for speculation that the eagleford and chalks could be a massive winner for adi.. so how much more than the $1.50 figure based on chalks and yemen in feb does the massive eagleford target give adi??

these are hartleys figures for the chalks and yemen only

[mfunksta]

Agent M,

I've followed this stock for a long time. U average more than one post a day, and have done for years. How is it that you're so into this stock? What incentive could you possibly have for being so involved?

[rock86]

Quote: Originally Posted by mfunksta Agent M, I've followed this stock for a long time. U average more than one post a day, and have done for years. How is it that you're so into this stock? What incentive could you possibly have for being so involved?

[estseon]

If you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.

[sam76]

Quote: Originally Posted by estseon If you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.

[rock86]

Quote: Originally Posted by estseon If you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.

[Agentm]

most of the data i post is purely regional, eee asked about things and i answered, and a few texas investors are also asking things every now and again.. like choppy.. if it upsets people its happening no one has complained to me , i have had no warnings from the mods for discussing regional wells and the eagleford play here at all..

some people ask questions. i answer if i can.

also every quarter the major players in the eagleford will report their progress, swift, anadarko, murphy, apache, st mary, petrohawk etc etc.. so a lot of data comes out then, as i openly state, there are others posting data on other threads like saf,, hell it takes a few seconds for me to repost that,, he also posts things i find.. if you know how to use the internet then you configure it to send info to you that you want to know about, i dont spend all day researching, if i feel like spending 10 minutes every so often trolling into the web on all the shares i like then i do so,, what fascinates me is that by doing so, you get an onslaught of attacks for having done so, they just appear and dont like talking about the share, the asf site was designed to discuss shares and i simply contribute,, theres a crowd of posters that spend their time attacking me personally,, and despite it being against the protocols of the asf site, the mods dont do anything about it,, just a bunch of clowns out there that are flaming and trying to bait me so as keep the thread off topic..

if the likes of mfunksta are upset about the research posts then so be it, you can put a poster on ignore and i think you can put a thread on ignore also.. why let it bother you if someone posts on a thread?

adi is in hibernation, we all know that, they announced that zero activity is their objective in 2009,, and investors have to wait for the TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on... i post whats happening on trend and closer to home.. but adi is not changing direction in a hurry right now,, its dead in the water and badly in need of a deal to be finalised,, sp is really at cash value and ground hog days continue..

all that any investor can hope for (and it applies for EKA and AUT) is that tcei does get this huge farmout deal done and dusted, then i guess the aussie jvp wakes up and things being to happen.. otherwise anyone can exit for the cash price thats on offer atm..

if its ok with everyone i would be happy to just discuss the eagleford and adi.. cheers

[martyfar]

Hiya agent

well I for one, absolutely appreciate your posts ...many thanks for the information, and as many thanks for your "opinions" ...keep up the good work !!!!

[otnixo]

I just registered and this is my first post. I have been reading this thread for about a week and have learned a lot about the eagle ford shale. My interest is because I am a landowner in Karnes county and the property is close (about a mile) to the two EOG wells currently drilling off of county road 261).

[philly]

Hi AGENTM,
I have been a holder of ADI since it was spun out by Arc Energy. I have even posted a few times on this thread. I say good on you for your informative posts I have certainly learnt a tremendous amount from them. I am prepared to sit and wait for ADI to take off. As for others you don't have to read the posts its your choice. I'm sure AGENT M isn't going to worry. As for me good on you AGENT M

[gdaf]

AgentM - you write "TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on."

How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal.

Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.

[Miner]

Quote: Originally Posted by Agentm most of the data i post is purely regional, eee asked about things and i answered, and a few texas investors are also asking things every now and again.. like choppy.. if it upsets people its happening no one has complained to me , i have had no warnings from the mods for discussing regional wells and the eagleford play here at all.. all that any investor can hope for (and it applies for EKA and AUT) is that tcei does get this huge farmout deal done and dusted, then i guess the aussie jvp wakes up and things being to happen.. otherwise anyone can exit for the cash price thats on offer atm.. if its ok with everyone i would be happy to just discuss the eagleford and adi.. cheers

[Agentm]

Quote: Originally Posted by gdaf AgentM - you write "TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on." How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal. Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.

[gdaf]

look agent - you're probably right in that they're seeking a large deal to fully fund the field development. I just wanted to know the detail on what made you think it was going to be a larger rather than smaller deal, and you've answered that.

I would assume this limits the potential suitor to a handful of co's. However, questions need to be asked:

- If nobody signs by the end of the quarter, does the JV have the capital to attempt flows from our existing laterals? Last time I checked, Adelphi was the only partner in a good position to fund forward development, and we don't even have that cash in the bank yet. There's very little chance of going back to the market to raise funds.
- What would stop a buyer just waiting on the above to occur to further de-risk their investment? Why commit to spending now when you can wait until flow results are on the table?

I feel as strongly about the prospects of our acreages as anybody, I just want to discuss all the possibilities. I don't have a firm view that a smaller deal on just the existing wells would be done, I just put it up there for consideration. There's every possibility a deal will be done before the end of the quarter, but if not, what then?

[Agentm]

good questions..

if no deal?

adi goes ahead with the yemen capital and we know regionally these wells turn a profit.. each completion that these operators do regionally into the eagleford teaches them what is working and what didnt work.. and you cant hide from your competitors what you did on a frac.

adi is ok in financial terms. and adi would just soldier on in the sugarkane

with a deal...

adi has a self funded project in the sugarloaf acreages and then can look at plenty of new projects.. will become an even more exciting company..

if a debt laden small cap like azz can trade from .4 to .40 then back to its .25 today on the strength of a background gas show (no flares), a failure in the edwards test and absolutely no production on its acreages.. then i imagine a debt free small cap like adi may manage an equally stellar trip into orbit should it move forward either way into the eagleford..

adi has the advantage of having a geologist running the show and that accounts for a lot, the company is running very lean, and not allocating options, not paying exorbitant fees to the directors and keeping itself in a very low profile and saying little while in the background trying to achieve the goals of getting the yemen cash and a farm out in place.. with those two things done adi will be firing on all pistons and surging ahead, without a farm out adi will still be able to open up the wells and make a profit

all imho and dyor

[gerkin02]

Agentm,
As a significant holder of both adi and azz, I detect a little jealousy on your behalf towards azz.

It dosent matter if you have the best of something,you still have to market it.

Adi and azz are different plays.The only similarities are that they are both involved in the eagle ford.

Blind freddie can see that once the yemen cash is received and a farmout is announced that adi will be significantly rerated.

Unfortunately no news equals no moves.

I would love to see adi rocket to 30c in a few months.

Agentms comprehensive coverage of the eagle ford shale is predominately the reason for my decent stakes in both these stocks.

With natural gas prices looking to improve into 2010 and oil holding or trending up as well,the eagleford will see a lot more action into next year.

Hang in there and all the best.

[Agentm]

Quote: Originally Posted by gerkin02 Agentm, As a significant holder of both adi and azz, I detect a little jealousy on your behalf towards azz. It dosent matter if you have the best of something,you still have to market it. Adi and azz are different plays.The only similarities are that they are both involved in the eagle ford. Blind freddie can see that once the yemen cash is received and a farmout is announced that adi will be significantly rerated. Unfortunately no news equals no moves. I would love to see adi rocket to 30c in a few months. Agentms comprehensive coverage of the eagle ford shale is predominately the reason for my decent stakes in both these stocks. With natural gas prices looking to improve into 2010 and oil holding or trending up as well,the eagleford will see a lot more action into next year. Hang in there and all the best.

[Hatchy]

Quote: Originally Posted by Agentm adi is ok in financial terms. and adi would just soldier on in the sugarkane while in the background trying to achieve the goals of getting the yemen cash and a farm out in place..

[Agentm]

Quote: Originally Posted by Hatchy I imagine that achieving completion on a sale of assets in this current environment is going to be a significant feat - at least it's not being sold off to a struggling company... and surely only a matter of legality. If there's no deal - I guess we'll see another raising to make use of some of the potential in the shale. AgentM: Any ideas as to how long ADI can sit in the background for? By this I mean how long till the cash runs out (albeit slowly by good management)? My reason for asking is I wonder if these matters might drag out until the US recovers (maybe years).