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The Lyceum - searching for eudaimonia

Positions 22 Aug

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Sold a third of SRL last week at about $2.30 and am almost free carried there on a great profit. Looks like it's about to fall over to me, but with market strength oversees maybe not Monday. As described in the thread, I'm a bit over them now. Making some stupid strategic decisions imo.

Sold half BHP at about $38 as I was way overweight in it.

Added AMP, TOL, GRY and IPL since last update I think.

MEL and WCL both down about 20% and I'm thinking about throwing in the towel there. ICN is making up for both of them however.

LGL also performing very poorly, even as the market runs and POG stays well supported. Rightfully smashed for the Ballarat debarcle, and heads should roll.

Disappointed I missed the CDU recovery after spending quite a bit of time researching it. Watching too many things I think, and also waiting for the market correction which has clouded judgement.

Also missed the RXM run which I am extremely disappointed in. Was watching it really closely for some time, and took my eye off the ball.

GRY looks like it's shaping up as long term prospective gold miner. Their drilling success could send their end of year JORC to well over 1m oz au, and the exploration success is outstanding. They could be sitting on a 3-5m oz au deposit.

Hm, that's enough...

At the end of next week I'm heading to Cuzco for a week and then mid Sep going to Chile for 2 weeks on a bit of a holiday. Will be nice to get out of dreary winter Lima for a while.

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  1. kennas's Avatar
    It's time like these when I question why I didn't buy more of a BRM on the way up when I knew the funnymentals so well. ********.
  2. haunting's Avatar
    what's wrong with buying today?

    ... if you are going for the long term
  3. kennas's Avatar
    Technically and fundamentally - yes.

    It's cheap, and breaking out.

    Just disappointed that I didn't buy more when it was trading below cash backing.

    Unbelieveabvle opportunity.

    Didn't trust my judgement after making some bad decisions last year.

    Have done OK out of it anyway. A very fast car worth at least.

    Just wish it was DB9ish instead of Boxterlikeish.
  4. shag's Avatar
    thanks for yr posts mate, really appreciate yr graphs esp.
    i have only mel as my csm/g punt. seems a real dog-location being nsw bad...?
    trying to up gry for month/s but no good pullbacks as well as cu stocks.
    got some cgg, just dont have the decent wads of dosh presently to make good dosh.
    need more oil too.
    the rail acess is a real can of worms, bugger forest too.
    ps have another good holiday....u may risk the rally in aus....
  5. kennas's Avatar
    Hey shag,

    Yes, MEL has WAY underperformed.

    I am in 2 minds.

    As a trader, cut and run and put the money to better use.

    Or, as a longer term investor, trust the funnymentals and take advantage of the depressed price.

    I'm thinking the later at the moment. I am waiting for a potential bottom and then going to add to the position. I can only really comfortably do this because I've had such success since the 'bottom'. I'm willing to risk total failure in this company since overall, I've made much more.

    This may be an example of a company that goes belly up, but the odds aren't skewed that way at the moment are they?

    So, I am torn.

    The fundamental investor is persuading me to hold and wait for another opportunity to buy.
  6. haunting's Avatar

    I have this simplistic approach - at a market top you use TA, at a market bottom, you use FA.

    The time to use FA was back in Nov'08-March'09. At the moment I see the market has a potential to develop into an intermediate top and am expecting a correction based on macro observations, market valuation and TA. My timing is out but I still believe the outcome will eventuate. Today's strong market movement is lacking in terms of fundamentals and has more to do with US market/economic influence and divy play, both drivers may not exist in September.

    Stick to your plan.

  7. kennas's Avatar
    AQA been a tragic miss. Called a bottom at $2.00. lol

    Bought a few more GRY on break through 35c. Expecting more drilling results soon, and would expect them to be good. Stock moving in anticipation of a decent JORC upgrade by end of year.


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