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The opportunities ahead

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We all know the economy is f*cked and we're in for bad times. Depression like perhaps.

But, the stock market is not the economy.

It is a forward looking psychological machine operating on perceptions.

It overshoots. Up and down.

The previous high and low were overshoots.

The opportunity now is for another overshoot to the downside perhaps, at worse case.

No need to be afraid, this is an opportunity!

Be prepared, and take it!

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Random thoughts


  1. kennas's Avatar
    Looks like that real opportunity may present itself soon. Pre-empted it a little while ago when there was a lower low and high and a break of support, but can we hold up again? More chatter about for a significant correction this time by my radar. Why I think this will be an amazing opportunity is that there is SO much cash sitting on the side waiting to enter that any significant correction/continued slide will bring buyers in once the lemmings have sold. The world is aflush with stimulus. It's been hoarded. Once this money starts flowing back in the market will go for one heck of a run. Or, we all die.
  2. shag's Avatar
    i dont see economy being stuffed in aus or asia myself.
    ive been trying to gain another decent grouping since house purchase and agree.
    i see a dramtic run myself, fat profits were calling it last yr the idiots-a 70's style near verticle run but i suspect this time its all go. but then thats me.
    my bro is cashed up for another pad, so it could b a chance for him to dump it in for a 6 month run on house dosh. i would anyway. need a lot for an ok place east sydney.
    buy massive good dairy farms in nz for the same amount. and they r the only land going up in nz presently or was.
    maybe not going up now....
  3. shag's Avatar
    so the market has had a week of trying to go down but didnt. maybe the world bank or was it the imf report killed or delayed it.
    earnings season stateside isnt it, hu in the slammer(no talk on asf re this from what i can see), whatever, needs a decent impetus to drive it lower from where im sitting.
    ideas, and it seems i need grammer lessons, which i probably deserved.
    hu getting copped reminds me of fonterra/san lu last yr. the exec's in china were sh-t scared and ran for cover quick despite being clean. it was a bit touch and go for them from my memory, but china got all the technolgy for free, and fonterra out for zilch bar a few deaths.
    heres a mates trout site if u get bored and want to see good fish and scenery.
    Updated 11th-July-2009 at 04:12 PM by shag
  4. kennas's Avatar
    Thanks shag, love a good trout fish. Lot's of trout in the Andes surprisingly, but not very big.

    I'm feeling cautiously bullish about this slide down. I was worried about a very rapid descent past old lows but this looks organised. Not too much panic yet. If we retrace 50% or so from the last push up (which is also around support) and hold to find a base, then could be a very good sign and a good entr point. LONG term I think any opportunity around3500 now could be good.

    Just not sure how all this debt is going to be covered.

    War probably.
  5. shag's Avatar
    zane used to rave about all the small fish they caught in north american streams. the massive ones often just sit around under banks anyway, they have caught 20 or 30 pounders in the dim ages in nz. the sea run ones get very large along with a few lake ones.
    northwest nelson is so full of fish u really dont need a guide, esp if u are fit and its very scenic. taupo is ok, but over rated and way over fished.

    i see the debt/currency debate has started to get some traction. i'm no fiscal genious but i suspect some creative bean counter will come up with a solution and ultimately an aisan and american currency equivalent to the europeans.

    its the same in nz, with the massive dept due to the housing boom etc, they r having trouble rolling over the uridashi bonds. it will make visiting nz even cheaper tho from australia.
  6. shag's Avatar
    bought a few gry to round off things.
    did u see the bnz in nz lost a large tax case re tax minimisation/avoidance. all the nz aus owned banks are the same. according to my nz lawyer, in climates like this one, even the courts do not remain impartial so i'm suspecting when this is taken up thru the courts, they will still lose. around half a bill nz for bnz alone.
    hows your tourism venture looking, i'd like to do a small accomodation development in a prime coastal region in nz. its in the too hardbasket presently. nice land, restrictive council and cap costs etc. not a big earner potentially but its using the property and putting more of a footprint on it.
    the swine flu taking grip in australasia, the bro said clinics inundated(sydney), icu's in nz overflowing.
  7. kennas's Avatar
    Tempted by GRY. Can't believe I missed these quality explorers at the bottom. AZM at 4c, GRY at 6c, PRU 20c. In retrospect, could have been a once in a lifetime opportunity. Grrrrrr.

    Tax, eeek.

    Not sure what's happening with the travel company. Have the chance to do it if we want, but big committment a long way from home. Missing Australia quite a bit.

    Your little development sounds interesting. Real estate is an enigma. It was supposed to fall over but has been pretty resiliant. That's the next opportunity in his recession perhaps.
  8. shag's Avatar
    i had a quick look at why your srl was such a winner. the cash backing seemed rediculously good from the thread.

    we are stuck with the property, been in family for generations. a lovely spot, just large council rates, for little return and service. it would be nice to make it pay, plus use it a bit more. golden bay is a funny place, so isolated, but with large landprices. a summer holiday destination for the south island. lots of well connected people hidden away too.
    very restrictive re coastal development, and likely to get worse, thats the problem.
  9. shag's Avatar
    trying to work out what i may do with my dogs in future. trying to find paladins and rio's grades in africa. rio appears to be 350ppm(.0035pc), and going down as yrs progress.
    like ext, but its all inferred(read guessed), whereas bmn is all indicated virtually. ext may upgrade the total resorce from these drilled areas alone as its converted like bmn, but who knows. 1.4 bill ish, when rio is only 40bill? market cap...
    i like pdn, its got 6 all over it but is stuggling at 5..
    maybe time for cu and ni. iron ore? but logistics, fmg got half a mine just for rail acess.
    csm, but i'm guessing too much leaked info and insider knowledge.
    maybe just hit the bhp or rio options key. at 33pc and less(declining ore cuts, and growing production) for iron ore contract reductions, bhp must try for 42 again sometime(i personally only like rio as a bhp takeover target again-look at its iron ore deal with bhp, all one way traffic).
    give us a blog sometime on yr crystal ball's visions.
    cash on the sidelines and greed returning to aus.....

    oh while i'm on it, i missed aus when i went back to nz both times this yr(once for 24hrs, another for five or so days). some parts of trip were good, mate/s, the canterbury plains, the farm etc, but as soon as u exit the airport upon return, the heat hits u...
    peru, the galapagos islands etc is a whole different story to the shakey isles esp in its present state.
    Updated 22nd-July-2009 at 02:49 PM by shag
  10. kennas's Avatar
    If we have seen an absolute bottom, what a fvckin AMAZING opportunity to buy in. We might look back at this period of time and see it as the best investment opportunity in our lifetimes.

    Chindia is going to take over from the US as the worlds biggest economy in the next 10-15 years, and our mining, energy, materials and infrastructure companies will be earning gazilions!

    If you can make it through the GFC, and the probably next major correction, you will end up a very very rich person by investing in the above industries in the coming years.

    You just need a longer term outlook.
  11. swm79's Avatar
    couldnt agree more with you on that last post kennas.

    long term outlook is amazingly good. just as long as china can keep it together.

    looking at all the info at the moment though - baltic dry, chinese domestic hot rolled coil prices, world HRC prices peaking, china's spot iron ore price... the fact that US commentators were saying the market going up last nigth was a result of Bernake being reappointed again (an absolute certainty anyway)... the markets are just hanging for ANY positive news... which indicates to me we may see another slide.... with that said we'll probably look back at these prices and say "why didnt i go in harder?! take out a loan etc etc"


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