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And the winner is...?

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The lesson from RIO

What lesson? The only thing that makes sense at the end of this fracas is to take stock of the winners, losers and the bad blood.

So who are the real winners in the Rio-Chinalco fallout?

In my view, there're only two broad groups - bulk of the Rio share holders from UK, especially the big investment funds. And BHP. These are the real winners.

The losers?

Not Chinalco exactly but then they can't say they have won either, can they? The got their break fee but not sure if that's enough to pay for the lost pride.

In my view, the real losers are the WA people, the workers made redundant because of the streamlining of the joint operation. And the contractors or subcontractors that provide services and supportive work to both Rio and BHP.

Taking it further, the loss of revenue in the WA state coffer due to the merger and the welfare unemployment support to this large number of jobless workers is like rubbing salt into wound. It will definitely hurt.

To take it further again, from an Australian "national interest" angle, what do we get as a result?

1) now both the state and federal govt have got a much more powerful commercial entity - BHP, to deal with. In many way, this has created an entity that is probably as powerful as that of the WA state govt due to its outsize influence on the overall economy. If Marius K goes bonker like Sol T of TLS, god knows how much damage he can do this country?

2) comparing the potential benefits to be gained from the national and state angle, in terms of job employment, tax revenue, etc... it seems at this point, it's better to have Rio to be independent from BHP. Just can't see why this is a good news to Australia and to our national interest. How?

But then I am not an ATO expert. So this is just pure conjecture.

In any case, it is not case closed yet. Let's wait and see.

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