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The Lyceum - searching for eudaimonia

Positions 24 April

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Thought about taking some off the table this week but hesitated. I'm a bit confused with my plan at the moment. Hold long and add on dips until I see something overdone, or keep actively trading conserving capital. Confused generally about the market really, so perhaps that's the reason. Another serious leg down into depression oblivian, or or the bottom in. Still have a pot of gold uninvested and the margin loan is calling out to me.
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  1. shag's Avatar
    you seem to have gone on holiday early....
    i think the only decent news from an otherwise boring week too me was that some scientists(australian?) showed that the antartic is growing, thus dispelling all the scaremongering going on about the collapse of the ross ice shelf.
    plus the nasdaq showing good signs of life....
  2. kennas's Avatar
    Yeah, just trying to get my head around the markets at the moment and be patient. I don't think it's going to take much for this rally to really fall over. Just some momentum selling really. This is a nice bear rally, but not the opportunity I have been waiting for. No capitulation at the bottom of this, although maybe that was done some time ago? I'm not even sure if I'll sell up when I go to Mexico so I can really have a holiday or keep in touch every night. Taking the laptop, but I think I might prefer sun set drinks on the beach instead of looking at a computer screen. Last May I was in the Brazilian Amazon and Venezuela for the month and that was when my portfolio really really fell over and I couldn't manage it. I'll see what the wifi's like I suppose and just see. Obviously not holding many stocks but have quite a few $ in them. Should be easy to tidy it up. Hm, rambling a bit. Off to the gym...
  3. shag's Avatar
    u might want to take some tamiflu to mexico if the outbrake gets hold
    it seems to work on this one, its a hundred buks or so but it keeps. u take it within 24hrs of showing signs of temperature etc, and it knocks many virsuses about.
    one day soon one of these viruses will take hold and clean a few out.
  4. kennas's Avatar
    Not too worried at the moment, seems confined to central north Mexico and south USA. Will only take one person on a flight to Cancun to cause it to hit where I'm headed though. Have my eyes out. This could be troubling. I'm probably buying BTA for a trade on the open tomorrow.
  5. shag's Avatar
    they seem a bit worried about this one, its already well out. concerned about it mutating. its a weird mix of genes too, and very communicative.
    mexico only got onto it weeks later after the states hammered them. it will be in aus already.
    a trading opportunity i guess as u indicated.
    quick to dispell bioterrorism too.....mexico isnt usually the place these things r evolved, usually in the worst parts of asia.
  6. kennas's Avatar
    Bought a handful of MEL at 50.5.

    Looks undervalued and (hopefully) bouncing off uptrend line. Will add on break through 60.
  7. shag's Avatar
    i think i did too
    the nz news on the virus doesn look grea
    it may be hot air but they r treating it seriously.
    nz hearald is good nz sie too. they have some who travelled from states 2 weeks back being tested....
  8. sagitar's Avatar
    Hi Kennas, really enjoy reading your blog - excellent work. I've recently bought into MEL as well which is not only undervalued but technically showing some classic textbook setups, ie in this case a LT ascending triangle. It's interesting watching the intraday activity as the big punters consistently come out around the support levels. If 60c break I'm seeing targets in the low 90ish cent region, although if there's some positive news (ie, from BP), the sky's the limit here, so to speak. I think the market is hanging out for news on this...hope it won't be long.

    Anyway, keep up the great work. Your adventures in Peru remind me of my awesome childhood years in Lima, although a lot has certainly changed since then.

    Buena suerte y hasta pronto.
  9. kennas's Avatar
    Yes fingers crossed with MEL. All things being equal should see it re-rated eventually. Might just be a waiting game. Hopefully the market doesn't implode in the meantime and take us with it. I'm pretty new to studying CSM plays so I'm not 100% sure about it.

    Thanks for your kinds words on my blog. I've been a bit lazy recently and haven't putting anything to print. Going to Mexico for May (I hope), so will be updating my adventures then.

    Childhood years in Peru? You're Peruana/o?
  10. shag's Avatar
    hi mate
    the market seems pretty resilient, like a threat of a pandemic and it ignores it pretty much after a good rally and every man and their dog predicting another leg down.
    u presume they won't announce too much bad news in the stress tests, why would u.
    sideways for a while?
    at least if u go to mexico it might be quiet....
  11. kennas's Avatar
    It sounds like the Yukatan Peninsula is OK so it still should be noisy Mexico there.

    PDN looks like it's clearing $4.00....
  12. kennas's Avatar
    Will be buying more PDN if the break is confirmed eod which it looks like it already has.

    Bought a handful of ICN.

    Still concerned about the next break down looming....
  13. shag's Avatar
    i started looking at icn too from yr comment. csg is grt but how much, how soon do we need....
    awesome potential, easy to produce too it seems. and aus has so much coal, but china has more, far more i believe-nasty coal. it still must produce csg.
    this viral thing is still a worry, nz seems pretty active on it, if it gets worse will they let u out of mexico...
  14. kennas's Avatar
    Peru isn't doing anything about checking people coming in from Mexico yet I think. Yukatan Peninsula is untouched at this stage. Was emailing a friend there today and it's business as usual. I think it's good to be prudent with these types of things but it's looking like a beat up to me.
  15. shag's Avatar
    good on u. i guess worse could happen, like a massive rally while u're away.....
    at times like this i wish i had more capital.
  16. kennas's Avatar
    Well, the odds are I walk away from about 40% gains and they all implode and go bankrupt in the short time I'm laying about on a Caribbean beach drinking Margaritas. Arrghhhh!
  17. sagitar's Avatar
    Hi Kennas, yes I'm also new to trading CSG players so will see how it unfolds. No, no soy un Peruano although still retain my nationality there...might visit relatives there again one day I trust you've visited Cusco - incredible place and still one of the things on my life's "bucket list".

    Careful going to ol' Mexico - if Montazuma's revenge doesn't get ya, Swine might. Take care.
  18. shag's Avatar
    sorry to blog yr blog, but have u noticed bmn has some life again. i was concerned that ext, dyl and the rest might push it to the sidelines.
    i know what resource, even given the current mk values, that i'd prefere to mine first.
    csg in the longer term must be a real earner, to me its a better form of hydrocarbon energy than petroleum.
    i'm new to it too, but it seems u dont need to do so much to your resource to keep it flowing, like oil wells, not to mention oil shales.
    i ignored it for so long as i couldnt get my head around how much gas it produced and relatively easily.
  19. kennas's Avatar
    Yeah, BMN bounced off support really well. Was watching.

    No idea about oil and gas and CSM. I should stay away from it really. Seems so hit and miss.
  20. sagitar's Avatar
    Hi, yes I would have to agree as well, BMN appears to be forming a sym. triangle, may test support at ~1.05c in the short term before possibly attempting to break LT resistance at 1.15c. If so, then she'll be off...

    btw, regarding csg's, nice summary by YT on the MEL thread.
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