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Bottom in sight......maybe...

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I have discussed a 'model portfolio' in my blog and bought a couple of them a while ago (WOW and WBC) but ditched them within a week due to the market action.

Now, while 3400 may be a possibility, getting in somewhere between now and then (maybe Monday) may be a very long term good investment.

But, what is safe?

I think the only thing I could say might be ok right now is WOW, but have my eyes on all the others on the list.

Anyone got a long term pick, or sector, that may be safe?

Healthcare: CSL, COH, HSP?

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Updated 4th-November-2008 at 12:30 AM by kennas (added chart)



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  1. prawn_86's Avatar
    Im liking the look of ANZ and AMP at these prices.

    Mainly based on yeild over the long term, although obvious finance sector risks associated...
  2. Gurgler's Avatar
    I also feel attracted to CSL - with which I achieved moderate success in the past.

    Also BHP as the long term growth of China, though stalled, must one would think continue. Or am I deluding myself?? Is the ongoing move at RIO proving a thorn in its side?
  3. kennas's Avatar
    I think this is still just a hiccup in the long term Chindia story, but it will take a few years to sort itself out. BHP/RIO will come out of this and mop up the minnows and make a fvcking killing..

    I agree with ANZ and AMP, but prefer WBC in the banks, but you're right about risks in the fin sector Prawn.

    But, I really think this action is now purely emotion and NOT rational. Just have to see how far the emotion takes us. The rebound may be significant and I don't want to miss it...
  4. kennas's Avatar
    The sell off on Friday and bounce Monday world wide looks very bottom esqe to me...

    A bottom anyway.
  5. kennas's Avatar
    The market is still full of fear but just hard to say if it's going to make a lower low, and if so, how low? Much further that 3800 or whatever the low was? If it went to 3400 support and 61% retracement that's not much lower really....hmmmm
  6. Garpal Gumnut's Avatar
    agree too much fear. I never took you for a bottom picker kennas mate, typical BASB choco lol.

  7. kennas's Avatar
    Only a choco after 13 real years.

    They're called CSSBs now too...

  8. Miner's Avatar
    Just to say hello to Kennas and other contributors to this blog. I noticed for long time nothing was posted by Kennas either. Of course market is bloody tale tell for all of us

    Take care and all the best
  9. kennas's Avatar
    Yes, nothing added, because nothing done.

    Have not made a trade in a month....

    Almost bought some more MAK on Friday, but thought I'd wait for an uptrend...

    I've not even been day trading due to my current living arrangements. Just moved in to a new apartment for 2 months, but it's temp.

    I am also now working during the day with my wife doing special projects for the company. Right now I'm the HR and Sales Manager. Positions that were supposed to be filled but due to the credit crisis have been deferred till mid 2009.

    So, for the next few months I am a volunteer with Intrepid Andes during the day and trying to find time to go to the gym, learn guitar, get Spanish lessons and then decide on some investments...

    Happy to be watching at the moment.

  10. Miner's Avatar
    Interesting observation and correct from a shrewd investor like you who does not forget to watch the starry sky and mountain with guitar.

    Enjoy your HR and Sales role. Probably you will not face the skill shortage to source your people. With so many projects been made off the shelf in Perth/ WA , miners and engineers will be easy to locate and probably Visa 457 is going to be parked as well.

    See ya
  11. Gurgler's Avatar
    Also doing nothing for the moment.

    Figure it will be a while - probably after my 'tour of duty' ends in Jan 09 - thereafter I will be back in the 'real world' aka Melb. In the meantime I will watch and learn - well, try to.

    What a ride it's been; still musing about what the longer term recovery will be like!

    Watching, waiting.
  12. kennas's Avatar
    Looks like a short term bottom definately in place, but how much this up move has, no idea. 4800 ish a possibility?

    Dirtied the fingers with stops of course.
  13. kennas's Avatar
    Well, was a bottom for a few days....

  14. kennas's Avatar
    Golly, breaking Oct lows, 3400 ish next stop perhaps.

    I anticipate some technical buying around these levels.

    If we go under 3500 I'll be buying.
  15. basilio's Avatar
    Hard to see anything good isn't it?

    My belief is that energy stocks and in particular oil will be essential products whatever happens. With the looming decline in almost all world oil fields this issue will become critical.

    I'm chasing LNC because i think Peter Bond is a real goer and the basic story of turning cheap cola into valuable diesel is a winner.

    CNX has the same technology and is turning it into different products. Should also be a winner but not as imaginative or hard driving as Peter Bond. Mind you CNX is still getting slaughtered in the middle of a successful tril of its plant!!
  16. kennas's Avatar
    Eeeek, hit what I thought was an approximate bottom at 3400 ish, but the Dow is going to cause more blood today.

    50% + drop. I doubt we'll ever see something like this again.

    Once in a lifetime drop?

    Maybe once in a life time buying opportunity coming up too?

    I haven't bought anything yet as the momentum is just so great, and even accelerating.....

    Maybe a V bottom coming up...
  17. kennas's Avatar
    Maybe bouncing off 3200 ish.

    God, could keep calling these maybe's until it hits 0....

  18. kennas's Avatar
    Hmmm, interesting turn around yesterday.

    Nice hammer candle.


  19. grace's Avatar
    Hi Kennas

    Have you seen Kev in town yet?....he's in Lima. (off topic I know)

    Cheers Grace
  20. kennas's Avatar
    Hi Grace, No haven't seen him, but this APEC thing is a pain in the @rse. I live right in the middle of where it's been held and there's road blocks everywhere. Would you believe the Limenos have given themelves 3 days holidays for APEC? What the? Any excess to not work .....
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