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Model Portfolio

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OK, first of all, I am not a lisenced advisor, but I have a great interest in the market both in long term blue chips and speculative stocks.

I have been operating my own investment company for several years called Maxwell Capital, and due to current investment conditions I am only into spec resource companies and day trading.

The rest of the market, including property, blue chips, and managed funds, are out the door right now.

There is so much fear, greed and uncertainty, that anyone getting into the market right now, with all their wealth is, IMO, crazy!!


So, for those following my blog here, be aware that I am a BEAR!!!! GRRRRRR!!!

I am prepared to sell everything and anything at the drop of a hat to preserve capital, which I have done in the last 6 months.

Just putting this out there to emphasise that I am an active investor, and not a buy and hope person.

To be a full time investor you need to have this approach and opportunity or you are too passive to take advantage of market conditions, and you WILL fail!!

Of course, there are a lot of people between these extremes....

Just some random thoughts on a Friday evening....

Model long term portfolio to follow!!

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  1. mu5hu's Avatar
    Hey Kennas,

    As someone who follows your blogs regularly, if everything went to shts i wouldnt even think about blaming ya and i do my own research and make my own judgments on which shares i buy into.

    But i enjoy reading your blogs for stocks that i haven't seen or noticed and i find that a great way of research.

    So yeah good advice tho for ppl out there reading your blog. I personally find it a great blog to read and amusing at times too LOL

    Cheers again!

    I also wish i had heaps of capital to work with! HAHA
  2. Miner's Avatar
    Hi Kennas

    A good description on what you think and do
    NOw I understand your langugage too when you often say GRRRRR ! means BEAR,

    You wrote your note on Friday and ironically bloody DJ fell down like a big thud in Stock market.

    Surely this will be reciprocated in Australia on Monday or Tuesday. Monday is a public holiday in Eastern States

    Thanks for your well researched postings . Regarding license I have seen many so called licensed advisers are not even worth of their licenses issued and with so many disclaimers if they fail then the only person falls is the investor. So I do not trust much on those license suited personnel any way being a miner.

    So in short you are doing very well and I do read your postings with passion .

  3. Miner's Avatar
    Me again as I just visited your website with a bigger tiger.
    Is your investment company open to public money to be invested as a client or it is just your own money ?

    If yes, what kind of services do I expect to receive

    I can send a PM if you like

  4. kennas's Avatar
    Hey guys, thanks for the replies.

    Maxwell Capital is in its infancy. Itís just me at this stage but I am hoping my brother comes on board soon. Heís quite high up in the finance industry with a background in managed funds analysis. Heís currently GM of a research division of a stock broking company. Hopefully he throws in some equity in the next couple of years and we turn MC into something big. No external investors at this point, just the bank. I donít think it will go any further than us investing our own money at this point.

    My 'Model Portfolio' will probably be mostly based on his Model Portfolio which has outperformed the XAO etc for the past several years quite well. About 100% better actually. I am waiting for the general market to bottom (or near to) before getting back into regular blue chip investments at which time I will go pretty deap into the ML and clear some specs off the board.

    All the best!
  5. uahmad's Avatar
    Hey Kennas!

    Im quite new to the board and i must say your blogs are awesome for a newb like myself. Its a great place to start, it gives you an insight on what your thinking and how you go about it your methodologies.

    Great read! keep up the work
  6. Gurgler's Avatar
    HI Sean

    Yes, still reading with interest what your thoughts and perspectives are.
    Appreciate you sharing them with us.
    I continue to be astounded by my ignorance - but not giving up, just absorbing the experience.

    Thanks again.
  7. kennas's Avatar
    I've started to gather together my thoughts on a top 10 stocks for a blue chip Model Portfolio to use as an asset to capitalise on.

    While investing in specs can be spectacularly successful, you can't use the equity to invest in other stocks, or investment projects. So, I'm looking for a turn around in the market (when ever that is?) to get back into stocks that will allow me 50-70% margin for other investing.

    My list so far is:


    This is my initial list, to be massaged as the market conditions change in preparation for getting back in to long term stocks.

    I'm thinking of putting about $50 into each as an initial position at this stage.

    Over time, I'll make justifications for the holdings.

    Must say, these are initial thoughts, and I may wait 6 months or more, depending on the market, to wade back in.

  8. MRC & Co's Avatar
    Mr Kennas,

    Good to read your blog mate.

    Out of interest, why did you start your investment company? Is it more tax effective?

    I too, am looking into the idea, at least then I can write off all expenses, data, computer equipment etc before declaring profit. But will probably wait until I move into a higher tax bracket (which may not be too far away).


  9. kennas's Avatar
    I started it to give myself more credability. LOL

    Sounds better when you call up a company and say you run an investment company....They tend to provide some time to you.

    Hasn't served much of a purpose yet really, but it probably will. I'm going to get my brother into it and change the structure and then take over the world.

  10. MRC & Co's Avatar
    ha ha ha ha ha, good stuff mate!!!!

    I look forward to seeing your face on the news!
  11. kennas's Avatar
    Refined the list a little.

    Now wondering when to impliment it? God knows how much further the market has to go.

    I was going to put $50K into each stock to develop at $500k pertfolio, but perhaps I'll start with 100K and then double up in 6 months to even out the entry? I think throwing 200K at this 'model portfolio' will be an OK start in this environment.

    Or, I could lose it all. eeeek

    Revised list, for now:

  12. kennas's Avatar
    I'm tempted to add PDN to this list at the moment and looking closely at a few other companies. Instead of 10 companies for the Model Portfolio I might up it to 15-20 to get more diversity. All will be Top 200 companies I think. I'm thinking of another energy company, maybe OSH, to add to the list and I might take off NCM. Whatever the case, I'll need to rejig things according to the economy and weight the portfolio correctly for medium to long term gains.

    It looks like the market may fall to the 3400 ish level at which time I'll probably get fully invested again.

    Once in a generation opportunity perhaps.

    Or, we'll all be on the streets.
  13. Garpal Gumnut's Avatar
    Yes kennas lots of folk looking at pdn. Good prospects both in WA, NT and of course Namibia one of the most hernstable of the southern African states.

    the chart looks v sick though.

  14. kennas's Avatar
    Yep, friggin sick, like the entire ASX less a couple.

    Once in a generation buying opportunity coming up, imo.

  15. kennas's Avatar
    I'm tempted to add ASX, IPL and WPL or OSH onto the list.

    BMN is out for now.
    PDN in.

    Reconsidering LEI.

    Maybe adding another healthcare stock, possibly COH.

    Maybe even TLS .... eeek

    Or, maybe I'll ditch the 'long term' picks and just stick to short/medium term trading...

    Updated 24th-November-2008 at 11:29 AM by kennas (speeling)
  16. kennas's Avatar
    Bought a few WBC and WOW today, again ...


    Will be happy to sell, or add if the market turns...

  17. kennas's Avatar
    I haven't mentioned this one before but I think AOE looks to have a pretty good growth and potential profit profile.

    It's recently bounced off support around $2.00 and starting to climb again. Pretty volatile though... eek.

    Anyway, picked a few up this am.
  18. Naked shorts's Avatar
    Just trolling through the blogs and came across this...just checked out the Maxwell Capital website and now I understand why you use a tiger as a picture!

    I always thought it was supposed to have something to do with you being able to kill a Bear and a Bull, because everyone knows tigers would be able to kick bear n bull ass in a fight. Possibly symbolizing your ability to trade any market. lol what an imagination.
  19. kennas's Avatar
    Yes, I think the bear might do a tiger in. Might depend on the bear though. The bears here in Peru aren't much chop.

    The model portfolio only has BHP and PDN in it at the moment. Waiting for the next decent leg down to add some CBA, WBC, WPL and WOW.

    I have some TLS too, but it's just a knife grab trade at the moment, still not sure long long term.

    Sold NCM last week as I think POG is on a mid term downer. Will be right back in when it looks like turning as I think longer term gold's going much higher. Perhaps I should have just held and added on the down as I usually would have. Still holding LGL for some reason. Perhaps the tiger knows why.

    Undecided about the others at the moment.
  20. Naked shorts's Avatar
    Your right about TLS being a knife grab, wasn't the whole point of the national broadband network to get rid of Telstra's monopoly?

    I agree with your analysis on POG, and things might get interesting when everyone has to start paying back debts, which they wont be able to do...unless they print even more money...


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