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		<title>Aussie Stock Forums - Blogs</title>
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		<description>Discussion forums for Australian stock market investors and traders</description>
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			<title>Aussie Stock Forums - Blogs</title>
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			<title>spot .....thumb twiddle ratios and extensions</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=954</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 10:56:40 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>Image: http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/Spotaltimewtargetstudy120512.jpg</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore"><img src="http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/Spotaltimewtargetstudy120512.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>Joules MM1</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=954</guid>
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			<title>spot trades, forget the conspiracy stuff, trade the trades available......</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=951</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 09 May 2012 13:16:25 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[spot trades pre US cash open.....looking for ratio'd low and completion of transition from weak shorters to swing longs]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">spot trades pre US cash open.....looking for ratio'd low and completion of transition from weak shorters to swing longs</blockquote>


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			<dc:creator>Joules MM1</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=951</guid>
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			<title>colour by numbers</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=950</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 06 May 2012 08:37:21 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>this was meant to be a reply post to an FX trade and chart posted today, however, i think in the interest of good manners (or maybe to avoid a...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">this was meant to be a reply post to an FX trade and chart posted today, however, i think in the interest of good manners (or maybe to avoid a dust-up) i've put it here ....posting in this blog is purely thinking outloud<br />
<br />
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				how is this dangerous for &quot;newbies&quot; or even &quot;oldbies&quot;<br />
 <br />
the main reason for the danger is, first, there is no 50% Pisano Fibonacci measure, secondly, a 50% pullback is typical for many traders to exit on, for new sells to come in and drown accummulation, it's a common ground , thirdly once a Fibonacci is broken it's usually a continuation signal, the level gets broken, a small retest and then back in the same direction of the break, fourthly, your Fib appears to be applied generically and upside-down(why 23.6 when 27.2 triggers more often etc) so you are not looking to fit any other rmeasure, fifth, you are more likely to find the resistance by looking for the extension measure of 75040 to 78698 and applying that to the low, sixth, if you have to use a regime such as a Fib then may as well apply the Elliott as well, oh yay, a five wave decline with an overlapping target of the underside of wave one down by a fourth wave bounce with typical ABCDE characterisitics and maybe you'll find Fib measures in those too......lol......finally, maybe get rid of some of those tram tracks so you can actually concentrate on the (historic) picture in front of you <br />
<br />
this style of trading is a hit and miss affair, a non-verified or unassociated application of an upside down Fibonacci measure and you havent shown the lower time frame that verifies the Evening Star thing, in other words, applying the same game again to the next chart is just as likely to go r s over tit as it is to work in your favour and exactly the reasons so many traders lose on large time frame appearance of candle and fibs because youre not uncovering the underlying game ....it is far more likely that the candle formation is a random appearance of the group of traders than it any efficacy of a trade set-up and we arent seeing stats that say otherwise.....<br />
<br />
this is just my two cents worth on un-promoting what is shown here to 'work'<br />
<br />
newbies<br />
go across chat rooms on the interweb and you'll find a plethora of these &quot;it worked&quot; charts .....finding good explanation for them is quite difficult, you get a fraction of the picture, usually wrong and remember the ideas are fine for chatting about but applying to the next trade is, i say with humility, incomplete and misleading.....<br />
<br />
someone once said, once a trader has decided to make the trade on whatever your preferred triggers are (in this case a candle formation and a Fib) then the rest is about money management and while i agree with that thinking i add that you can money manage your way into zero funds by a thousand cuts with this type of application, so, still these set formulas that come from text book ideas have a limited protective value.....i've proven to myself that a colour by numbers approach is fine but trading signals, that are at best subjective has a high lose ratio
			
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			<dc:creator>Joules MM1</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=950</guid>
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			<title>algo or not to algo....i like this one</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=949</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2012 02:26:01 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNetwork/100/8103/Why-Algorithms-Arent-Your-Enemy/</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore"><a href="http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNetwork/100/8103/Why-Algorithms-Arent-Your-Enemy/" target="_blank">http://www.moneyshow.com/video/Video...nt-Your-Enemy/</a></blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>Joules MM1</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=949</guid>
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			<title>spx, similar deal, playing the flow of liquidity post news</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=948</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 27 Apr 2012 12:58:04 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>similar deal, with a dominant with-trend pos playing the lower time frame to capture swings against the trend as they re-align with the trend with...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">similar deal, with a dominant with-trend pos playing the lower time frame to capture swings against the trend as they re-align with the trend with the major idea coming from intra market views....obviously in isolation this is diff game with much higher risk <img src="http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/spxnews270412.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>Joules MM1</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=948</guid>
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			<title>dax gap - blog test</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=947</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 27 Apr 2012 12:27:54 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>been several months since i played on the dax, so, time to get wet with tiny size as its on a gap down on nefarious news, boj qe news....daily...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">been several months since i played on the dax, so, time to get wet with tiny size as its on a gap down on nefarious news, boj qe news....daily context strong trend....the gap looks complete with a test, first solid hook with changed character of transactions, new players enter, during same time frame gold is showing clear distinct plays be several groups short term and long term players getting marginal swings in the chop, now real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work in usual size on size game.....several fib ratios pop straight out again suggesting different groups entering, doing business and leaving no real dominance......at the dax low i see that play so the context comes into focus, time to be long and look to for price to at least engage the high of the fib measurements, thus, two trigger reasons aside from the how the price is unfolding as we're in price territory that i've seen and my risk on the low side is good for long  entrance with clear exit now that i've established a low in gold which also looks like opportunity plays finished for this time of the day.....also, as a btw, the XJO sydney team did not dump, key signature and the SPX looks to have overshot the opportunity to clean house of stop-sells below......amongst many things these are the thoughts for the plays, doesnt matter if theyre 10 zeros or no zeros the game doesnt change so my size in this is not the point, the trade i the point and especially the dax as i've tended to shy away from it for a long time.....<br />
the purpose of this blog note is simply a thought process, ignore the other trades, theyre just listed to show that the trades exist (so far today anyways) and i've finished for the day on the dax, income is inline with the risk and tiny size used at $55.82 over 64 minutes ......i find if i am going to add size best to do it once trend is (re)established or i can cleanly see a game being played either for acc or distribution.....just trading &quot;flow&quot; without either the right data such as the dom is fairly silly unless i can line up a lot of ducks in a row......so todays trades (thus far) are all 5-10 sec + 3/15/30/120 min and daily charts no indicators only addition was some ratios from inverted/extention fibs and only as risk profile not for aggressive positioning.....i dont call this scalping or call it anything other than reading intent......thus far my open plays on gold and spx look strong......so i have two time frames i'm often playing and one is the dominant trend and the other is lowest time frame chop that clearly sits within the context of the frame and i can exit without being stranded......yesterdays trades are on twitter<br />
<br />
thus far you can see i still BTO 20 SPX at 1396.81  + BTO 5 XJO 4386 both being part of daily profile and i shall have those over the weekend, other data unknown.......<br />
<br />
so the purpose is just to show two things from a beginners pov, first, tiny size gives you supreme control and allows to experience live trades with low risk and with control you gain confidence by diarising the plays and rehearsing them over and over....basic Steenbarger ideas in that......you know, i used to argue for demo accounts but theyre all lacking in some way and there's no sub for the real trade set-up forcing you to get correct focus......also replaying a realtime event or series of events that the brain can comprehend replaces in huge spades compared to a simulated version because of the dynamic.....<img src="http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/daxgaptrades270412.gif" border="0" alt="" /><br />
<br />
<img src="http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/daxplaypartii270412.jpg" border="0" alt="" /><br />
<br />
even tho these are tiny live trades they represent ideas to consider and to think of new questions on.......</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>Joules MM1</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=947</guid>
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			<title>Travel Blog Launched</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=917</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 08 Jan 2012 05:58:30 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>Me and the Mrs are spending 3 months of this year travelling through South America. Check out our blog here: 
 
www.weroamaround.com</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">Me and the Mrs are spending 3 months of this year travelling through South America. Check out our blog here:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.weroamaround.com" target="_blank">www.weroamaround.com</a></blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>prawn_86</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=917</guid>
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			<title>Diving in SW Thailand</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=908</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov 2011 11:16:47 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>Off to Malaysia and Thailand for 4 weeks starting next Saturday.  
 
Will be in touch.  
 
:)</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">Off to Malaysia and Thailand for 4 weeks starting next Saturday. <br />
<br />
Will be in touch. <br />
<br />
:)</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=908</guid>
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			<title>PRU to be taken over</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=896</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2011 08:03:43 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>There is no doubt now that PRU will be snatched up in the near future. One of the largest gold holdings in West Africa and everyone wanting a piece...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">There is no doubt now that PRU will be snatched up in the near future. One of the largest gold holdings in West Africa and everyone wanting a piece of it. <br />
<br />
Could be anyone who takes them but there is a few who already have significant operations in the area and this would be a great bolt on for another 500K oz pa in the near future. <br />
<br />
NCM must be looking at them for one.</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=896</guid>
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			<title>Papua New Guinea</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=886</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 31 May 2011 11:59:32 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[I'm off to PNG in a few days.  
 
Just visiting Port Moresby to do an assessment of their Health Services and making recommendations on the way...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">I'm off to PNG in a few days. <br />
<br />
Just visiting Port Moresby to do an assessment of their Health Services and making recommendations on the way forward. <br />
<br />
Will take some photos and report.</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=886</guid>
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			<title>The UK</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=879</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2011 15:23:08 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[I've been in the UK over the past 2 weeks at a conference and visiting some interesting places. 
 
Started in Edinburgh for a week, down to York for...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">I've been in the UK over the past 2 weeks at a conference and visiting some interesting places.<br />
<br />
Started in Edinburgh for a week, down to York for a couple of days and now in Guildford. <br />
<br />
Really is a very beautiful region, with lots of old stuff.<br />
<br />
Highly recommended. <br />
<br />
Will post photos and score card soon.</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=879</guid>
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			<title>Beer Can Chicken on The Deck</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=876</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 13 Apr 2011 20:17:32 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[[ATTACH=CONFIG]42396[/ATTACH] 
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Cooked Chicken on a VB about to be sliced and diced 
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Happy Chicken sitting on a VB<br />
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Cooked Chicken on a VB about to be sliced and diced<br />
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<a href="http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=42397&amp;d=1302725556" id="attachment42397" rel="Lightbox_876" ><img src="http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=42397&amp;d=1302725556&amp;thumb=1" border="0" alt="Click image for larger version

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Chicken with family<br />
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Chicken at Sun Set</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=876</guid>
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			<title>Diving on the Great Barrier Reef!!</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=860</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jan 2011 05:17:27 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>Flying up to Cairns this afternoon to Cairns for a week of diving. Yay! :) 
 
Using FF points to fly Business Class, going out to the Kangaroo...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">Flying up to Cairns this afternoon to Cairns for a week of diving. Yay! :)<br />
<br />
Using FF points to fly Business Class, going out to the Kangaroo Destroyer boat on the reef for 2 nights then back to the Shangri La at the Marina for a couple of nights. Then maybe back out on the boat depending on the weather.<br />
<br />
Love holidays and diving with the fishes!</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=860</guid>
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			<title>Losing patience... the day of reckoning will come however.</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=856</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 01 Jan 2011 10:25:34 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>My rule was to keep 70% to 80% in cash or short term bonds, however, I lost patience in 2010 and speculated quite wildly.  
After receiving a lot of...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">My rule was to keep 70% to 80% in cash or short term bonds, however, I lost patience in 2010 and speculated quite wildly. <br />
After receiving a lot of cash from the takeover of Felix Resources by Yanzhou Coal, I got a bit carried away. [we were robbed as the $18.05 bid should have been $24 to $27 a share, one day I may know the answer to this]<br />
Anyway, I was fortunate, there was a bull market in the mining sector, now I'm gradually going back to my 70%+ cash levels. If the market had crashed in spring 2010 I would have been up a gum tree.<br />
<br />
Perhaps the comments by the late Bob Beckman are more right than I thought, &quot;the only time I did badly was when I failed to take my own advice&quot;. <br />
<br />
Before my trading was principally in Australia but I was drawn to the UK's AIM madness market. I dived in and out of stocks like an out of control 'day trader'. One problem for many is trading T20 to put off the pay day and then closing out by T2, a problem only if stocks go down. <br />
Number one rule on AIM is, &quot;it's never wrong to take a profit&quot; and two &quot;gladly leave some profit for the next guy&quot;. 3 is, &quot;take losses quickly as they often widen, don't hesitate, close out&quot;.<br />
Never allow yourself the opportunity to say, &quot;Oh well, I'm holding on for the long term&quot; - admit it, &quot;you've failed&quot;.<br />
<br />
2011 looks to be a good year ahead but I think there is going to be a time to cash in our chips. China, Asian and Arab investors are still piling in [near every sector in Australia] and newer up market properties in places like Sydney are likely to travel on up quickly - the day of reckoning WILL come however.<br />
<br />
The mining and oil sector is likely to climb fast, though it depends whether your company is an explorer or has big producing mines and whether the 'big wet' has damaged them badly or not - the day of reckoning WILL come however.<br />
<br />
So it's glory in 2011 investment profits, remember though, cash them in for the day of reckoning WILL come.<br />
<br />
Good fortune to you. My motto for 2011 is, 'run your profits then cash them in' - Good luck, noi</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>noirua</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=856</guid>
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			<title>New Pad!</title>
			<link>http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/blog.php?b=848</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 22 Dec 2010 10:46:10 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[Have bought a little apartment in Melbourne for when we are down there... 
 
Nice view! 
 
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:)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="blogcontent restore">Have bought a little apartment in Melbourne for when we are down there...<br />
<br />
Nice view!<br />
<br />
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<br />
:)</blockquote>

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			<dc:creator>kennas</dc:creator>
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