MCR - Mincor Resources

[tech/a]

Making good higher highs and higher lows.
Buying for a longer term hold.

[markrmau]

Thanks for the pointers - nickel is supposed to have a good run next year (but your steel comments in the china is a possible negative against this).

I was considering starting a "Techtrader entry/exit" discussion thread --- or is there already one on reefcap?

I took 1/2 profits on wpl yesterday, mainly because I wasn't happy having such a large position on it, and needed something to do with the $$.

[tech/a]

Bought half of what I want at .81c.

Will buy the rest when stock either finds a low from retracing or makes a new high.

As for T/T Reefcap has the portfolio that we have traded from the beginning.
we dont discuss or note every single trade found by nightly scans.
This is only done if a stock is sold and then replaced.

There is a lot to be learnt from disecting a mechanical methodology and Im happy for T/T to be used for this purpose.If you or others wish to run a portfolio or go into the idiosyncrocies of trading a mechanical method then Im happy to take part and post any test results in relation to the method being discussed(Techtrader).

Ill make this point again.It was designed to see if everyday People could design and trade a long term method profitably.Its not presented as "THE" method to trade just "A" method,from which people can learn---Perhaps answering the question----"Why Trade Mechanically?"

Its not for everyone but like most here I also started out as a short term trader.Funnily it answered a lot of questions re short term trading during the many hrs of testing!

Must say that Im a little loath to start any lengthy discussion since the last pile of posts suggesting that they were/are self serving.

[markrmau]

Unfortunately I bought at open, but this doesn't matter - I think this stock will run well.

Someone put down $100k on the close bid too.

Not interested in all the c ra p that has been going back and forth - I am interested in this system because I am wasting too much time watching the too and frow of the bids.

I or someone else can start a thread when an entry or exit comes up and if noone responds, thats ok, but hopefully will get discussion.

This is a test: there is a soccer team named ****nal ... who liked to play on the grassy knoll. Lorraine Crap is a famous australian swimmer.

[markrmau]

Thoughts on MCR anyone?

An Elliot waver might be inclined to say it is just finishing its ABC. A support / resistance fellow might hope that 75c will act as support. A fundamentalist might think that since nickel is going in the right direction we should hang on to this.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html

It's about at my stop loss, and I think I will ditch it if it breaks 75c.

[RichKid]

The drop in volume is what's worrying. Seems to be some consensus around the mid 70's. A drop below 75c would see it having to break resistance again. The last four bars suggest a change in sentiment, polarity is negative. I did notice some previous spikes (false breakouts) before this recent breakout. I don't expect it to go back to 60c again but it could go close. Too early to call that yet. I get the impression that more positive anncts re drilling will see this recover, but when that'll come and whether it's been built into the sp are different questions.

[DTM]

Looks like its been retracing to the .76 support level and consolidating. I think its only going to go back up although I don't think it will shoot back up (hopefully I'm wrong) but maybe an orderly rise.

:2twocents

[markrmau]

todays figures are good for mining expoters so i will hold

[RichKid]

Plenty of buyers at 75 and 76 but they will be taken out unless some new news comes through imo. Still bullish, not surprising to see it fall back a bit. March is a big month for MCR with the village work and cashflow improving.

[Kipp]

Not much interest in this thread in ages...
I think it looks like a winner, sitting on a P/E of 6.5 and very good track record over the past 5 years. Managed a ha;f year profit of 10 mill despite unfavourable nickel market. Now that Ni is on the rise again, what are the prospects for MCR?

My big concern is that even last year when Ni was above $8/lb the share price was only trading about 85c, therefore maybe there's not too much to get excited about- cause today it closed at 77.5c.

Anyone out there watching this one? Any thoughts would be appreciated

[porkpie324]

I have been a long time supporter of mcr, have traded mcr many times still holding quite a few, read todays announcement it means mcr is diversifying so the market could possibly rerate. porkpie :)

[emma]

I bought late December @ .68 and have endured the ups and downs but finally am happy to see the current upwards movement - notes from last weekend (looking at the weekly chart) registered a rejection of the week's lows indicating that the coming week could see perhaps see higher prices - so far so good. Having said that - would someone with greater technical skills like to analyze the current situation?

No, I don't want advice - I'd just like to see how other people go about it.

[Kipp]

I have been a long time supporter of mcr, have traded mcr many times still holding quite a few, read todays announcement it means mcr is diversifying so the market could possibly rerate. porkpie :)

Yes, but only prospecting.... could be a while before they start Gold production, but I agree tis good news.
Had a pretty good day today... moving up towards the 12month highs reached last year... which I'd discovered MCR a week ago.

One downside is it looks to me like they only have Nickel reserves for the next 5-6 years ago at the current rate of production (13000 pa).

But in any event, I still think I get onboard MCR very soon, it is a promising sign that they pulled off an awesome result for Dec half year when things were tough (for Nickel), a very good sign imo.

[michael_selway]

Yes, but only prospecting.... could be a while before they start Gold production, but I agree tis good news.
Had a pretty good day today... moving up towards the 12month highs reached last year... which I'd discovered MCR a week ago.

One downside is it looks to me like they only have Nickel reserves for the next 5-6 years ago at the current rate of production (13000 pa).

But in any event, I still think I get onboard MCR very soon, it is a promising sign that they pulled off an awesome result for Dec half year when things were tough (for Nickel), a very good sign imo.

For some reason it has such low PE(forward), and also pays dividends?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.4 12.2 19.8 9.6
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-06 12.2 6.4 16.8%
Year Ending 30-06-07 19.8 3.9 62.3%

[Kipp]

Think the forward P/E could be bad 'cause of MCRs current resources/ore rserves- check out page 20 on http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---oosoh.pdf (sorry tried to attach the graph, but think the file was too largre).
Anyway, the bottom line is that MCR's total Ni Reserves are only 47,000 tonnes as at June 30, 2005 (compared to 53,000 tonnes Ni Jun 04). So, producing 13,000 tones a year only leave them with 4 years more production!!! Course, I know nothing about their curent exlporation stakes (plus they are now looking at gold).

Anyhow, just my thoughts. Plus SP has hit a fair bit of resistence at 83c... volume is tapering off... not so good.

[michael_selway]

Think the forward P/E could be bad 'cause of MCRs current resources/ore rserves- check out page 20 on http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---oosoh.pdf (sorry tried to attach the graph, but think the file was too largre).
Anyway, the bottom line is that MCR's total Ni Reserves are only 47,000 tonnes as at June 30, 2005 (compared to 53,000 tonnes Ni Jun 04). So, producing 13,000 tones a year only leave them with 4 years more production!!! Course, I know nothing about their curent exlporation stakes (plus they are now looking at gold).

Anyhow, just my thoughts. Plus SP has hit a fair bit of resistence at 83c... volume is tapering off... not so good.

Hi Kipp

yeah that forecast 2008 EPS of 0.09 is a huge drop from 2007, probably for the reason u have stated. Also maybe nickel prices will cool off by then?

thx

MS

[Kipp]

Not much action for MCR (well, sp has been trickling downward for the past week) despite Ni prices kicking on to $8.20... has me baffled :confused:

[Kipp]

Not much action for MCR (well, sp has been trickling downward for the past week) despite Ni prices kicking on to $8.20... has me baffled :confused:

Finally some action for MCR (al the Ni stocks had a pretty good run today)

Quote Holst report (pub 5/4/06) "Our base case valuation of Mincor has increased to $0.81 per share (previously $0.73/share) due to
higher nickel price assumptions (current spot LME price: US$7.05/lb) and expected resource to
reserve additions (at this stage still constrained by relatively short mine lives). Every 10% change in
our nickel price assumptions changes our valuation of Mincor by 5cps."•

Ni spot price up to $8.70/lb (23% increase since time of report) therefore MCR price target= 81+ (2.3x 5c)= 92.5c at current Nickel prices.

[michael_selway]

Finally some action for MCR (al the Ni stocks had a pretty good run today)

Quote Holst report (pub 5/4/06) "Our base case valuation of Mincor has increased to $0.81 per share (previously $0.73/share) due to
higher nickel price assumptions (current spot LME price: US$7.05/lb) and expected resource to
reserve additions (at this stage still constrained by relatively short mine lives). Every 10% change in
our nickel price assumptions changes our valuation of Mincor by 5cps."•

Ni spot price up to $8.70/lb (23% increase since time of report) therefore MCR price target= 81+ (2.3x 5c)= 92.5c at current Nickel prices.

The thing is, is the current Nickel Spot Price sustainable? thats where the danger lies

[Kipp]

The thing is, is the current Nickel Spot Price sustainable? thats where the danger lies
Yep, but if we all knew the futures for Gold, Nickel, and Zinc for the next 6-12months it wouldn't make investing that much of a challenge, would it?
but at least Nickel is a component of stainless steel for which the Chinese appetitte knows no end. Plus batteries ni-cd and NMH, but I don;t really know which of these is the primary driver for Ni price and it's use (hell, batteries prob comprise 0.2% of all Ni used for all I know).

And this is something else which has just occured to me... are MCR (and all comps for that matter) obligated to put ALL brokers reports on their website? Or do they just pick and chose the more favourable brokers reports? [ignoring the SELL recommendations?]

[MalteseBull]

going to crack $1 tommorow

bought more

[porkpie324]

yes mcr up today on large vol, last resistance at this level is back in late 2003 early 2004 when mcr made a double top at just over a $1.00, i'm holding quite a few mcr been accumulating for a while, so next few days will be interesting. porkpie :)

[Chief Wigam]

Anyone have any technical price projections?

[porkpie324]

mincor again at a d/top of $1.00,then broke thru on above average vol, looks like mcr is being rerated, my patient accumalation paid off. As for a technical top who knows we're in blue sky territory now. porkpie

[michael_selway]

mincor again at a d/top of $1.00,then broke thru on above average vol, looks like mcr is being rerated, my patient accumalation paid off. As for a technical top who knows we're in blue sky territory now. porkpie

Can it be sustained thats the thing, and also mine life, only 4 yrs left?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.4 10.4 23.1 10.8
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

thx

MS

[porkpie324]

i think mcr has more than 4yrs mine life up its sleeve, also some good reports this week with a record june production also mcr's relationship with view res. anyway i'm watching mcr carefully at the mo, for possible profit taking (quite large now), then buy in again on any weakness. porkpie

[stiger]

Mincor is going along very nicely indeed;IMHO. ;)

[stiger]

Took some profit today, the remainder is pure cream. :D

[porkpie324]

me too took some profit today, i have also been trading mcr using cfd's, it seems a lot easier to gauge the market using cfd's for quick trades usually hold from a few hrs to upto 4 days, porkpie

[Kipp]

Can it be sustained thats the thing, and also mine life, only 4 yrs left?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.4 10.4 23.1 10.8
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

thx

MS
MS I think commsec 2006 estimate is VERRRYYY conservative.
The half year to Dec EPS was 5c and Nickel has a great run since then, not to mention the sale of Teyhan Copper's residual holding for a few $$$$...

Sold my last little pack of MCR about a month ago in a mad panic when the market was at the worst of it's trough (correction). Think I regret it? :whip

[johnmwu3]

Nickle is shining for the rest of year.( maybe 2-4 years）
MCR may be the next KZL or ZFX in base metals.
Any op. ?

[porkpie324]

Lets hope so, i'm a long term fan&holder of mcr, have also been trading mcr using CFD,s , although no open pos at the mo,porkpie

[johnmwu3]

Rising nickel output helps Australia's Mincor beat rising costs

Singapore (Platts)--28Aug2006
Strong nickel prices and a solid year of production helped Australia's
Mincor fight off rising costs and deliver record net earnings for the
financial year ended June 30, the Sydney-listed miner said Tuesday.
All four of its Kambalda nickel mines in Western Australia were running
at full capacity by the end of the reporting year, helping Mincor post full
production of 13,500 mt of nickel-in-concentrate--up from 10,000 mt a year
before.
Strong nickel prices boosted the yield from the nickel sold, and Mincor
as a result reported a 44% increase in sales revenue to A$174.6 million ($120
million), up from A$121.2 million a year earlier.
Its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization)
hit a record A$70.6 million, up from A$46.7 million a year earlier--a result
that was also thanks in part to selling off optional interests in certain
projects and writing off some properties in Tanzania. Before those special
items, EBITDA was up 35% to A$63 million.

TO BRING ONE PROJECT IN HOUSE TO FIGHT OFF RISING COSTS
Mincor said it was keeping a close eye on its rising costs, though, and
would bring at least one project fully in house to govern costs better.
"Mincor remains vigilant on costs, and to this end we have made the decision
to move our Redross Nickel Mine to owner mining," said Mincor managing
director David Moore. "Our mining contractor Barminco has done a fantastic job
there but we feel that the specific requirements of the mine are now more
suited to an owner operation."
Mincor has committed A$8 million to the transition to owner-mining at
Redross, which will take place on 1 October 2006.
Moore said Mincor would make a decision "in the very near term" on
whether or not to go ahead with its South Miitel mine project, near the
Kambalda complex.

[michael_selway]

Nickle is shining for the rest of year.( maybe 2-4 years）
MCR may be the next KZL or ZFX in base metals.
Any op. ?

I disagree, i think this year 2006 will be the peak of Nickel, then probably downhill from then on

MCR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.4 12.3 22.7 12.1
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

MRE - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 12.8 36.5 33.2 20.8
DPS 10.0 11.0 10.8 7.0

IGO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 19.8 28.2 38.0 32.0
DPS 8.0 7.0 10.0 10.0

SMY - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 7.3 4.4 18.7 28.7
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0

JBM - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 80.1 56.4 59.9 67.7
DPS 40.0 34.0 26.5 16.5

thx

MS

[BAM]

I came in late on this one, have only bought in the last few weeks.
Happy to be an owner.
I think the key to MCR's success is the effective management of costs, the focus on sustainablitiy through the procurement of new reserves and the debt free status that we/they enjoy.
The market will catch up eventually. I only wish I bought in this time last year.
Nickel prices will fall throughout the end of this year and into next year, however, demand will out-weigh supply again in 2009 pushing the prices up.

[Halba]

BAM be careful of analysts forecasts....these :banghead: analysts said nickel surplus last year...now its in deficit (official figures) so be wary of anyone telling you it will crash....put simply market dynamics have changed...technically nickel shares are strong too.....suggesting nickel is allright for a year or two at least ;)

MCR are lowly capped @ $230M mkt cap. They are diversifying and from that low mkt cap they can grow easily.

[ekman]

Bouth this recently at the peak. Cna someone tell me whether to sell and reduce losses. :confused:

[ekman]

MINCOR (MCR) open to takeover offers. ...interestig reading on bloomberg site http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...refer=australia

[porkpie324]

i could'nt seem to find this story on the bloomberg site, any chance of some breif details. porkpie

[ekman]

i could'nt seem to find this story on the bloomberg site, any chance of some breif details. porkpie
Mincor's Reeve Says Nickel Miner Is Open to Takeover Offers

By Catherine Yang and Tan Hwee Ann

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Mincor Resources NL, Australia's fourth-largest nickel producer by mine output, said it's open to takeover offers as mining companies worldwide search for more resources to meet surging Chinese demand.

The company hasn't been approached and is focused on exploration to increase resources, Jim Reeve, chief operating officer of Mincor, said in an interview in Sydney.

``Everything is for sale at the right price that gives our shareholders the maximum return,'' said Reeve. An offer ``would have to be a fair way north of the existing share price because we believe we're undervalued and there is a lot more potential in our mines,'' he said.

Prices of nickel, used in batteries and to rust proof steel, have more than doubled this year, reaching the highest in at least 19 years this month as demand exceed supply. Inventories have slumped 89 percent this year amid soaring demand from Chinese steelmakers.

Shares of Mincor have more than doubled this year, compared with a 10 percent rise in the benchmark S&P/ASX Index. Mincor closed at A$1.40 Oct. 10.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne at hatan@bloomberg.net

[porkpie324]

thanks ekman for the detail, i have reduce my physical holding late last week, but bought using CFDs mon tue &wed looking to close today, porkpie
PS, IGO had a great run yesterday & up today, more porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

Hi

I bought MCR on friday for 1.52. Ceteris Paribus, viz Nickel Price, I think this company is valued at 2.10-2.20.

Regards

[ekman]

thanks ekman for the detail, i have reduce my physical holding late last week, but bought using CFDs mon tue &wed looking to close today, porkpie
PS, IGO had a great run yesterday & up today, more porkpie
Porkpie, are you still in MCR. do you think it still has legs

[porkpie324]

Porkpie, are you still in MCR. do you think it still has legs
I sold about 60% of MCR also closed all my CFD positions, looks as if I closed to quick but I still made good money> as for the future I think MCR has a long future and will be buying back in on any weakness. Just for the record I closed out MRE, SMY, AGM, IGO, CBH & western areas, all are good prospects and will do the same as MCR. PORKPIE

[Seneca60BC]

FOr the record - I'm still in - but im getting ready for a very bumby ride :)

[porkpie324]

looks like some profit taking has come in today, yes there could be bumps coming in. porkpie

[porkpie324]

forgot to mention MCR gave the dreaded 'gravestone doji' on 17th.porkpie

[alankew]

What exactly is a gravestone doji?

[porkpie324]

The 'gravestone doji' or the 'inverted hammer' are in candlestick functions extremely bearish signals. Now I'm not a great techy but i'm sure all the followers of candlestick trading would have taken note.porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

porkie

Is that a sell signal - what you mentioned?

[porkpie324]

Thats what I said, in candlestick functions the 'gravestone doji or the inverted hammer' are extemely bearish and quite often signals a change in direction. As I said I'm not a great techy but after such a strong sp rise it could be worth watching. I have reduced my MCR holding which I did before the 'doji' formed.porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

porkpie

Do you still have 40% vested in MCR?

[michael_selway]

Thats what I said, in candlestick functions the 'gravestone doji or the inverted hammer' are extemely bearish and quite often signals a change in direction. As I said I'm not a great techy but after such a strong sp rise it could be worth watching. I have reduced my MCR holding which I did before the 'doji' formed.porkpie

yep once LME "ins' or on warrants start increasing again, Nickel Price will fall

thx

MS

[porkpie324]

Do you still have 40% vested in MCR?
Yes close to that, regarding the candlestick 'doji' I mentioned, MCR appears to have broken through the highest point so looks like the sp is still heading up. But i'm watching them carefully at the mo, i'm just trading CFDs with MCR at this period, only leaving them open for a few hours to a max of 2 daysporkpie

[porkpie324]

Looks like some hefty profit taking going on with heavy vol this morning, still after such a big increase in sp about .50c in a couple of weeks it had to happen, MCR could be forming support about $1.80, I bought a few this morning some at 1.80 and 1.825. porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

Hi Porkpie

I think this is due to the heavy sell down on Nickel last night.

with respect,
Shelton.

[porkpie324]

Shelton, I thought that but JBM MRE IGO have risen today, ??? porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

yes your correct - just learnt that - mmm madness of the market or your possible right - support at 1.80

[porkpie324]

Could'nt resist it bought a few more late yesterday using CFDs, and yes I'm leaving them open over the weekend. porkpie

[djones]

MCR are rocketing down, down another 6 points this morning after 20mins of trading!

[porkpie324]

Yes have noted more weakness this morning, but with nickel increasing on Friday I have just bought some more at 1.765 CFDs again, thats 4 lots Ive bought now. porkpie

[porkpie324]

Someone is buying up MCR this morning, there was over 100k at 1.80 but were quickly taken, now 70k at 1.82 next res. I think MCR was a little oversold. porkpie

[porkpie324]

Looks a little overstretched so closed this mornings CFD trade, as Arfur Daly would say a nice little earner tis morning. porkpie

[djones]

Strong quarterly production of 3,612 tonnes nickel in
concentrate
• Record quarterly operating surplus of $38 million
• Current cash and receivables net of creditors and
accruals stand at $69 million; Mincor has no debt
• Development decision taken on South Miitel – a major
new expansion of the Miitel Nickel Mine
• Successful transition to owner-mining at Redross
• Ore Reserve statement underlines outstanding record of
reserve replacement, while mineral resources stand at
an all-time high
• Record profits, cashflows and dividends announced for
financial year 2005/6
• Continued exploration success at Carnilya Hill and
elsewhere – Mincor raises exploration budget from $8
million to $12 million for the current financial year.

[porkpie324]

Yes a good quartily report, have just read it, looks as if some more support coming through too this afternoon, bought back again at 1.81. porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

MCR are rocketing down, down another 6 points this morning after 20mins of trading!

so?

[ekman]

Yes a good quartily report, have just read it, looks as if some more support coming through too this afternoon, bought back again at 1.81. porkpie
like a fool i sold my MCR at 2.03 on Friday last only to see it jump another 30 cents in 2 days

[porkpie324]

What a day for MCR opened up in the high 2.30's got sold off then back up to the high 2.20's, and I went fishing, just got back, missed all the action. Your not alone Ekman I did the same closed all my CFD positions Friday.porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

i may be the fool here - still holding em.

[michael_selway]

i may be the fool here - still holding em.

yeah its strange, as nickel prices have fallen

thx

MS

[chops_a_must]

yeah its strange, as nickel prices have fallen

thx

MS

Maybe not. I think they are looking at producing other metals.

Still, slightly overpriced at the moment?

[Seneca60BC]

still quite a bit to run yet hehe hehe and exploration upside.

[36590]

Are there any thoughts of where this stock is headed after the last couple of days. I have been watching MCR and CBH dive a fair way. I wouldn't mind a Nickel share as I already have TZN. Any thoughts or is the consensus to go with zinc?

[Seneca60BC]

As the old saying goes, what wise men do in the beginning, fools do at the end.

Volitility happens-move on.

[porkpie324]

MCR sure has been sold off, glad that I closed last week. I opened one CFD pos yesterday looking to add today.porkpie

[Fab]

Are there any thoughts of where this stock is headed after the last couple of days. I have been watching MCR and CBH dive a fair way. I wouldn't mind a Nickel share as I already have TZN. Any thoughts or is the consensus to go with zinc?
ZFX is getting cheap and AUZ as a cheap nickel stock is going back up

[porkpie324]

Just read this article on Kitco, seems reasonable after all did the same myselfe.porkpie

"Shares in Kambalda nickel miner Mincor Resources were pummelled yesterday, falling more than 9 per cent on the back of what is believed to be profit taking by institutional investors.

Mincor, which last week touched a record $2.35 as nickel prices soared, yesterday came crashing back to earth to close 18.5¢ down at $1.81 after more than 4.6 million shares changed hands.

The fall was significantly greater than the declines suffered by its local nickel rivals as nickel prices eased, with Independence Group sliding 2¢ to $4.59, Jubilee Mines shedding 40¢ to $12.35, Minara Resources slipping 20¢ to $5.14 and Consolidated Minerals closing 4¢ down at $2.

It is believed that Mincor’s decline was largely due to institutional selling, most likely by big investor MIR Investment seeking to lock in profits from recent gains.

MIR has been a regular trader of Mincor shares in recent months.

In September, it boosted its stake to 8.19 per cent after picking up nearly three million shares at an average price of $1.22. A month earlier it offloaded over 2.6 million shares at an average price of $1.14 after buying 2.25 million shares at an average of 98¢ in July.

Mincor company secretary Brian Lynn said the company was not aware of any reason for yesterday’s big plunge, with operations at Kambalda performing to expectations.

Mincor generated a record quarterly operating surplus of $38 million in the September quarter and is debt free."

[chops_a_must]

There was a release from a director a week or so ago saying that they were well valued, or words to that effect, when the SP was about 2.25. But to me, this looks like good value as well.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

I'm liking the volume and spread on MCR Today, constantly soaking up the sellers, and there's been some decent ones :rolleyes:, silly buggers!.

IMHO, MCR's not far of blowing its lid :D.

[chops_a_must]

I'm liking the volume and spread on MCR Today, constantly soaking up the sellers, and there's been some decent ones :rolleyes:, silly buggers!.

IMHO, MCR's not far of blowing its lid :D.
Yes, great news today!

Stoopid instos.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Still under selling pressure though, everytime its cleared and looks half a chance for momentum to grab a hold, up comes the shark bar :banghead:.

[michael_selway]

Still under selling pressure though, everytime its cleared and looks half a chance for momentum to grab a hold, up comes the shark bar :banghead:.

Its done well though.

thx

MS

[porkpie324]

Dead right there doin' well, have just taken another healthy profit from last weeks sell off, still holding some. porkpie

[chops_a_must]

I put this in another thread, but is more relevant here:

"RE: Cobalt Capacity

We make money from Cobalt as a by-product recovered from our nickel mining operations. As such we do get the benefit of any price increases in Cobalt. The total value of by-product copper and cobalt together is about 3% of our revenue.

Many thanks for your support of and interest in our Company.

Best regards

David Moore

Managing Director

Mincor Resources NL"

An extra 1-2% of revenue purely due to Cobalt this year?

And another very significant nickle discovery announced, yet selling pressure, strange.

[ekman]

anyone knows why this is in trading halt

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Nope but hope its good news, Ive been picking their bum today :eek7:.

[chops_a_must]

anyone knows why this is in trading halt
Might be to do with their new operations.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Might be to do with their new operations.


MCR's exploration has been coming up trumps in recent weeks. With their mine life potentially extended at Mariners and a BFS immenint at Carnilya Hill, maybe that was all a potential bidder needed for a T/O.

Could be wishful thinking, certainly not out of the question though. MCR are the fourth biggest Ni producer in Australia (mine output), fair value, cashed up and lowly hedged. :)

[chops_a_must]

MCR's exploration has been coming up trumps in recent weeks. With their mine life potentially extended at Mariners and a BFS immenint at Carnilya Hill, maybe that was all a potential bidder needed for a T/O.

Could be wishful thinking, certainly not out of the question though. MCR are the fourth biggest Ni producer in Australia (mine output), fair value, cashed up and lowly hedged. :)
Well, nickel still looks stronger than zinc for the next few years. Or maybe they have found a large amount of zinc? Either reason would be enough for a T/O.

But look at the amount of !'s in the last two weeks. All positive. I can't see it being bad news as one of the directors said the share was at a very good price at about 2.20.

Yeah, I just can't see it being bad news. Shall be interesting, I hold at an everage of 1.95. Will be nice if it has a big breakout.

[Lert]

I picked up MCR for 75 cents in Sept 05. Up nearly 200%.. another 20% would top it off :D

[ekman]

I picked up MCR for 75 cents in Sept 05. Up nearly 200%.. another 20% would top it off :D
u r getting greedy !!

[Lert]

Thats a very astute observation Ekman, and you are quite correct.. but I need a few MCR's to make up for the failures like CSM. :banghead:

[Lert]

The 'West Australian' this morning reported speculation regarding capital raising.. Anyones guess I suppose..

[chops_a_must]

The 'West Australian' this morning reported speculation regarding capital raising.. Anyones guess I suppose..
Why would they need to? Totally debt free, big profits. Don't quite understand.

[JBMMMMMMMMMM]

MCR has treated me well over the year paid 66.5c sold at 2.04 thought I'd made a massive mistake when it drove up to 2.30 the next day ,still turned out pretty good buying back in at 178.5 on the recent dip should fly Once the ann. is out that is if its good news which I'm 99% sure it will be :cool:

[chops_a_must]

Yeah, it all looks pretty darn good to me. The management seem to have a bit of a midas touch.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Their a bunch of ugly buggers though lol, nice announcement today! & good to see a minnow growing and be part of it :D

[djones]

Mincor is moving back towards its previous resistance at 2.30. Still being capped by a large seller as shown by the large volume but small price changes. As soon as the large seller has finished offloading his shares it should be blue skies for MCR.

With record nickel prices, $100million in the bank and recent resource finds, the record quarterly result due out on the 29/01 should launch this stock to $2.50 then onto $3 by the end of March.

[MiningGuru]

Mincor is moving back towards its previous resistance at 2.30. Still being capped by a large seller as shown by the large volume but small price changes. As soon as the large seller has finished offloading his shares it should be blue skies for MCR.

With record nickel prices, $100million in the bank and recent resource finds, the record quarterly result due out on the 29/01 should launch this stock to $2.50 then onto $3 by the end of March.

The chart to me looks very strong. It looks to me as soon as the $2.30 resitance line is broken, it push ahead into Blue Sky very quickly. I see this as a potentail breakout.

[porkpie324]

I'm not sure about that blue sky just yet MiningGuru, there seems to be an abundance of sellors, I closed all my positions on Friday. MCR like a lot of other miners seems to come under late afternoon selling pressure, (like today), so still a lot of nervous people. I do think that long term your right though, I will certainly be buying again on weakness I'll wait for the stochastic to turn down to an oversold position. porkpie

[reece55]

Porkpie
Not sure that there were an abundant amount of sellers here - close was right at the top today on nice volume. In fact, IMO I see a lot of buyers here. MCR has recovered nicely from the dip in early Jan and is tantalizingly close to breaking that important 2.30 barrier. Will it happen tomorrow - we will just have to wait and see but I think this one is setting itself up for it's next move. Nickel is the one metal I believe that still has more in it and MCR is a good way to get exposure to it. Plus, have a look at Nickel's price per pound chart - broken out nicely of late. + Factor in the positive exchange rate movement in Aus - US for the Company. Not much to complain about here! Best of luck to all holders!

Cheers

[theasxgorilla]

The 1yr Nickel spot chart tells a tale...the breakout is clearly apparent.

[theasxgorilla]

Plus, have a look at Nickel's price per pound chart - broken out nicely of late. + Factor in the positive exchange rate movement in Aus - US for the Company. Not much to complain about here! Best of luck to all holders!


Doesn't a strong AUD/USD exchange rate disadvantage MCR? If AUD strengthens then their relative AUD profit shrinks.

[reece55]

HAHAHA....... ignore me.......... :o

You are on the mark here asxgorilla - I obviously haven't taken my pills this morning!!!

Thanks for posting the Nickel chart - can someone pm me on how to display charts?

Cheers

[theasxgorilla]

What I do like here is that Nickel has broken out inspite of USD strength. As Nickel is priced in USD (like most metals) a strengthening of the USD usually sees commidities fall to keep their prices relative in USD terms, just as we've seen in the last couple of months.

[chops_a_must]

I'm not sure about that blue sky just yet MiningGuru, there seems to be an abundance of sellors, I closed all my positions on Friday. MCR like a lot of other miners seems to come under late afternoon selling pressure, (like today), so still a lot of nervous people. I do think that long term your right though, I will certainly be buying again on weakness I'll wait for the stochastic to turn down to an oversold position. porkpie
What the hell are you talking about? MCR went up another 4c in the last 30 mins of trade today that I wasn't watching, and closed on the high. And for the last week and a half, it hasn't gone below its opening price and done very similar things as it did today. (It would be a day traders dream being on this stock lately.) These are pretty strong signs to me. Along with the gradual increase in volume towards resistance, while still strongly climbing. It's almost a classic textbook pre-breakout situation. And now that SMY has broken out, everyone will be all over the nicklers.

Anyway, I'm popping my cherry with a faux analysis on this thread. Be kind. ;)

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y148/staringbakwards/mcr22janchart.jpg

Momentum has been building, and very similar to the momentum before its last breakout. If we can get a continuation of the positive trend on the MACD, it may well breakout again. Anyway, hope that chart helps.

[chops_a_must]

And a gap up on the opening this morning. Even though my information seems a bit scratchy, it looks good. Watch out!

[reece55]

Nice solid breakout this morning.... at 2.47 as we speak, up 8% today.......

Good time to be long in this one....... All the best to holders, with Nickel rising the way it is this stock is primed to soar..... I see 2.50 as the next step to overcome, hopefully it will break today...

Cheers

[porkpie324]

Dear Choppy, you don't have to listen to me, infact just as well you did'nt I was only posting as I have been reading the quotes, yes in hindsight I should have held another couple of days, but I chose to close my cfd positions last Friday for some very healthy prophets, also did the same with SMY but I'm holding IGO( I think these will go a bit higher yet). I am well aware of the technicals and will now wait for a pullback. BTW I still hold some physical shares. porkpie

[chops_a_must]

Dear Choppy, you don't have to listen to me, infact just as well you did'nt I was only posting as I have been reading the quotes, yes in hindsight I should have held another couple of days, but I chose to close my cfd positions last Friday for some very healthy prophets, also did the same with SMY but I'm holding IGO( I think these will go a bit higher yet). I am well aware of the technicals and will now wait for a pullback. BTW I still hold some physical shares. porkpie
I just don't understand why you would be closing positions on any in nickel right now. Ah well, as long as it met your targets, that's all that matters. :)

[wintermute]

I was looking at this on the weekend... I had previously looked at getting in back in August, but chose MRE instead... looks like I should have chosen both!!

Anyone know roughly what price nickel concentrate gets?? I'm assuming quite a lot lower than nickel metal... based on their 1st quarter report it would seem to be a bit less than $20,000 AU / tonne, though that includes their hedging..... Wanted to try and do a profit forecast, but a bit hard without knowing what they are receiving (for the non hedged production), including cobalt and copper credits...

Tony.

[MiningGuru]

N
Good time to be long in this one....... All the best to holders, with Nickel rising the way it is this stock is primed to soar..... I see 2.50 as the next step to overcome, hopefully it will break today...

Cheers

2.50 has now broken. Lets see where it will end up!

[wintermute]

OK found my answer :)

from the chairmans address to shareholders...

Mincor receives 65% of the metal value from our processing
arrangements with BHP Billiton, who provide an essential service in
concentrating and smelting our ore.

Time to do some calculations ;)

Tony.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Dear Choppy, you don't have to listen to me, infact just as well you did'nt I was only posting as I have been reading the quotes, yes in hindsight I should have held another couple of days, but I chose to close my cfd positions last Friday for some very healthy prophets, also did the same with SMY but I'm holding IGO( I think these will go a bit higher yet). I am well aware of the technicals and will now wait for a pullback. BTW I still hold some physical shares. porkpie


Yep you should have waited a bit longer Porky with MCR and SMY, IGO are still lagging and have slipped under the markets radar ATM

[chops_a_must]

Anyone know roughly what price nickel concentrate gets?? I'm assuming quite a lot lower than nickel metal... based on their 1st quarter report it would seem to be a bit less than $20,000 AU / tonne, though that includes their hedging..... Wanted to try and do a profit forecast, but a bit hard without knowing what they are receiving (for the non hedged production), including cobalt and copper credits...
Tony.
I looked at a similar thing a while back that I posted earlier:

"RE: Cobalt Capacity

We make money from Cobalt as a by-product recovered from our nickel mining operations. As such we do get the benefit of any price increases in Cobalt. The total value of by-product copper and cobalt together is about 3% of our revenue."

Hope that helps also.

[chops_a_must]

Gapped up another 15c on the open. Any guesses where this is likely to stop?

[theasxgorilla]

Gapped up another 15c on the open. Any guesses where this is likely to stop?

The ferocity of the buying is starting to suggest takeover to me.

[wintermute]

not looking like my bid in at 2.31 is going to be filled.... thought I'd try the "all gaps must be filled" approach... takeover is possible I guess.... could also be that people are waking up to what sort of profits they are making with current nickel prices... I don't know why it is that whenever I've decided yes I want to buy this, it shoots up just before I get the chance... grumble grumble... then again the market in general has been very up lately, could be due for a few bad days at which point my order may get filled... one can hope ;)

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

not looking like my bid in at 2.31 is going to be filled....
Lol!

Looking at the chart, if it does fall, 2.50 might be a better bet. Did you end up getting a profit forecast by any chance?


theasxgorilla
The ferocity of the buying is starting to suggest takeover to me.
Well, they do have agreements with BHP, and BHP would probably do anything at the moment to lift their flagging SP. Haven't seen them talk about putting themselves in a takeover position, but anything is possible I guess.

[wintermute]

I came up with a rough figure which made me decide I wanted to buy... I should do a proper one as now I can't remember what that figure was.. I have a scrap of paper with some figures on it, but not sure whats what LOL... I think I came up with somewhat higher (only a few cents) than the EPS the analysts are forecasting.... One variable I don't know yet is the mine life!! if it is short then that could be a reason for the low p/e ratio...

I'll do it again, and this time I'll record all the details properly! but I won't necessarily release the info till I have my parcel ;)

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

One variable I don't know yet is the mine life!! if it is short then that could be a reason for the low p/e ratio...

The last I remember reading it was 2013. But they have since found a big nickel reserve in one of their mine extensions. So, I have no idea. But they do have a big exploration programme, as well as a tungsten/ uranium project. What's the easiest way to find mine life stats?

[chops_a_must]

One piece in the puzzle perhaps?

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070124/pdf/00687076.pdf

[chops_a_must]

Some very unusual price action. Anyway, it briefly filled the gap above 2.50, after being in the 2.40s, and now back into the 2.60s. Now back into the 2.50s. Massive volumes being done for this stock anyway.

[wintermute]

I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some at a bargain price :)

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some.
My analysis is the same. Already sold out of MRE today, and it looks like MCR has run out of steam as well. We've probably seen a top in the nickel price, so time to take profits I think.

[j4mesa]

chops, it seems that your analysis slipped out a bit......
still running ...see how it goes today..........
think might be going $3 ???
:p:

[wintermute]

yeah certainly thinking I should have bought when I had the chance, but just looked at the chart and monthly RSI is just about at 90, daily has just popped over 80 and weekly is just about to poke it's head above 80.... I think a pullback is imminent, but how big it will be is another question... maybe back to $2.30 to fill that gap??? I can dream ;)

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

chops, it seems that your analysis slipped out a bit......
still running ...see how it goes today..........
think might be going $3 ???
:p:
I bought back in after the indicators then reversed... strongly. Momentum is still looking good. Not sure if the RSI is a good indicator at the moment as there is panic buying for nickel, and the other nicklers are still climbing whilst above 80.

[MiningGuru]

Will this share break through the $3 barrier today?

It has touched on it, but will it close above?

I think that if it does it will shoot quickly up to the $3.20s

The chart indicators are still very strong on this share. Nickel is still very strong.

[Seneca60BC]

i may be the fool here - still holding em.

LOL i stand corrected :)

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Well I'm out for the moment, all the best for those still holding, MCR is a good Company.

[porkpie324]

MCR is the stand out nickel miner today, its up 11c as I type with plenty on the buy side.

[Kauri]

You would almost think that there is something more than the nickel price driving this one.. :)

[porkpie324]

Perhaps there sellng SMY & IGO and buying MCR, BTW I've just opened a pos with IGO, after I took prophets on Tues/Weds there's been a sell off in IGO. porkpie

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Yep its crazy stuff, MCR's cap is up to over 600mil ish, finger burning stuff in the short term IMO.
KZL's cap is 1 bill at today's prices yet no one wants a bar of them.... ah its all about whats in flavour I presume.

[porkpie324]

MCR now up 14c all during the last hour, the other n miners yet to follow, must be something going on, I wonder if Chicken is buying! porkpie

[Seneca60BC]

Really, this is crazy - who could be buying? an institution?

[Seneca60BC]

Perhaps there sellng SMY & IGO and buying MCR, BTW I've just opened a pos with IGO, after I took prophets on Tues/Weds there's been a sell off in IGO. porkpie

What did the prophets say? LOL :)

[wintermute]

well I'm certainly not buying now!! the monthly chart is looking like it is on the last stage of going parabolic to me!

Tony.

[porkpie324]

All three indicators on your chart look good to me, I'm looking to open positions. porkpie

[wintermute]

short term I assume porkpie!!! yeah it might be about to shoot up, but how long before it crashes back down?? The RSI is grossly overbought, that is my main concern, as is the shape of the uptrend! I'm expecting a good 1/2 yearly report which is why I was originally going to buy in, but it's looking very scary to me now! :)

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be both my best and worst trade for 2007? Lol!

[porkpie324]

When trading resource stocks a sharp correction is always on the cards ie KZL (makes my eyes water at the mention). At the moment apart from some physical shares I'm out of MCR, I bought back into IGO & SMY using CFD's on Friday, MCR's trading late Friday was a suprise to me, but I read a report yesterday comparing IGO,MCR&SMY which does to a certain extent explain fridays MCR move, I was also expecting a larger nickel LME correction on the outcome of the dispute at Sudbury on the labour settlement, another reason why I closed most of my positions on Weds & Thurs.
BTW if anyone is interested in reading the mentioned report I found it on the Mincor website(mincor.com.au) under investor relations. porkpie

[chops_a_must]

When trading resource stocks a sharp correction is always on the cards ie KZL (makes my eyes water at the mention). At the moment apart from some physical shares I'm out of MCR, I bought back into IGO & SMY using CFD's on Friday, MCR's trading late Friday was a suprise to me, but I read a report yesterday comparing IGO,MCR&SMY which does to a certain extent explain fridays MCR move, I was also expecting a larger nickel LME correction on the outcome of the dispute at Sudbury on the labour settlement, another reason why I closed most of my positions on Weds & Thurs.
BTW if anyone is interested in reading the mentioned report I found it on the Mincor website(mincor.com.au) under investor relations. porkpie
I think it explains the recent run, but not Friday's action. Most of the reports I've seen about MCR put them at a value between 2.35 and 2.60, so I'm thinking we'll see them at about 2.50 before long.

[chops_a_must]

MCR getting absolutely pounded at the moment. Down nearly 5%.

[ktrianta]

Down only 7 cents today. Bit of profit taking. Not surprising given the run it has had. Still plenty of upside one would think. :)

[Seneca60BC]

nice half year result - better than I expected - $37 million profit.

What you think ? - Good result ?

[porkpie324]

Yes a good result, although the substantial increase in profit is mainly due to the increase in the price of nickel, not a too bigger increase in produced concentrate. MCR is working on this though with increased exploration, I'm sure MCRs output will be more un the future and I remain a long term fan of Mincor, porkpie

[Lert]

MCR were 5% down at one stage this morning but buyers have moved back in.. I thought the results were pretty good and the dividend is nice too..

[wintermute]

So as not to polute the XAO thread Chops have a look at the date I said MCR looked grossly overbought. 3rd Feb. have a look at the daily chart below.


Now this is the only time I remember mentioning something being overbought on RSI and look what happened... It pulled back I got it VERY wrong didn't I??? have a look at the weekly chart and you will see it touched 80 as well and dropped off. The monthly is still in well overbought territory.

So if anyone listened to what I said and waited a few days they would have bought in at perhaps up to an 20% discount....

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

Now this is the only time I remember mentioning something being overbought on RSI and look what happened... It pulled back I got it VERY wrong didn't I??? have a look at the weekly chart and you will see it touched 80 as well and dropped off. The monthly is still in well overbought territory.

So if anyone listened to what I said and waited a few days they would have bought in at perhaps up to an 20% discount....

Tony.
Yes, you did.


I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some at a bargain price
You said this at $2.50, and again at $3. If they had listened to you, they would have lost by now. After your prediction of $2, the lowest they have gone is ~ $2.50. I doubt they would have got in at all, thinking it was going lower. And by the way, far from being overbought currently, it looks like breaking from above $3.20. When there is panic buying (as there is with nickel) using a retroactively correct indicator like a monthly RSI is about a month too late and useless.

[wintermute]

Hmmm I didn't go back to the previous posts (as I didn't remember back that far). the first one was at $2.75 approx if you look at the chart not $2.50... then it went up and I said maybe I should have bought, but decided it was looking way over bought at around $3.10 and it pulled back to below the initial point where I said a pull-back was probable, ie back to around the $2.50 point.

The only thing I said which was dubious was that it might go back to $2.00 which in hindsight was way off. That was not based on using RSI, I don't even remember why I decided on that figure, I was probably remembering my experience with CSM, $2.25 would have been more reasonable but still way off in hindsight.

So if my using RSI to predict a pull-back was VERY wrong I'd like to know why :) Anyone who would not buy on the dip after the pull-back, would likely have sold at a loss if they bought at $3.00 and then had it pull back to $2.60. so I don't see your point...

It seems you are bitter about my posts on MCR and saying I thought it would pull back which it subsequently did. I can't understand why. If using RSI is a month too late, how come I picked it a week before the event?? If it makes you feel any better, I didn't get my order filled as I had it at $2.31... everyone is responsible for their own decisions in life, I made a mistake on my buy target, I did not make a mistake on whether the pullback was imminent.

You will note that later on I said I didn't know how far it would pull back, but MAYBE the gap at $2.31 would be filled, I then said one can dream, indicating I didn't think it was likely it would drop that far!

Believe what you want chops, but for someone who posted along the same lines I was at the time you seem to have done somewhat of a 180. If my posts backed up what you were thinking at the time and you made a wrong decision because I posted something along the same lines, and you thought it verified your line of thinking I am sorry, but no matter where you go you will find people who agree with and those that oppose your thinking, just because someone else is thinking the same way doesn't make them right, just as someone else thinking differently doesn't make them wrong.

I note that you sold all of your MRE around the time I made the first post on MCR, something I also did not that long after (12th Feb to be precise). Do I regret it?? NO, because I made 155% profit on it, and at the time it was what I thought I should do. Do you regret selling your MRE?? did your comment affect whether I sold mine or not?? possibly, but did I once think that it was anyone other than me that made the decision? NO.

Anyway I only posted because the tone of your initial post on the XAO thread seemed pretty hostile, and I wasn't sure why...... It would appear you feel that my posts on MCR have affected your (or someone else's) decisions on what to do with MCR, in a negative way. If that is the case then I apologise as that is the last thing I want when writing posts. I think I need to put the sig on that I have on another forum! will do so now :)

Cheers

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

Hmmm I didn't go back to the previous posts (as I didn't remember back that far). the first one was at $2.75 approx if you look at the chart not $2.50...

So if my using RSI to predict a pull-back was VERY wrong I'd like to know why :) Anyone who would not buy on the dip after the pull-back, would likely have sold at a loss if they bought at $3.00 and then had it pull back to $2.60. so I don't see your point...

It seems you are bitter about my posts on MCR and saying I thought it would pull back which it subsequently did. I can't understand why. If using RSI is a month too late, how come I picked it a week before the event??

Anyway I only posted because the tone of your initial post on the XAO thread seemed pretty hostile, and I wasn't sure why...... It would appear you feel that my posts on MCR have affected your (or someone else's) decisions on what to do with MCR, in a negative way. If that is the case then I apologise as that is the last thing I want when writing posts. I think I need to put the sig on that I have on another forum! will do so now :)

Cheers

Tony.
Uh uh. At the time you posted MCR dipped to just below 2.50 intraday. They would have lost because they most likely would have had to buy in higher than what they sold. Anyone can pick a dip. I can say a stock looks overbought, and retrospectively say, "oh there it was". I can say that about almost every stock out there. And I doubt you truly picked it anyway as your order never got filled. That's a pretty clear indication to me.

I'm not annoyed, because every trade I have made on MCR and MRE has met my targets (at a substantial profit). I just think it is irresponsible to predict dips on a strongly uptrending stock. Especially with the RSI as it becomes useless when fundamentals change either positively or negatively. And that is the same reason for the negative response in the XAO thread.

People downramping strong stocks for their own benefit is effectively the same as ramping in my eyes.

[wintermute]

yes I'm a shameless downramper! I predicted a pullback when it was around $3.10 it dropped it took five days to work it's way down to its lowest point at around $2.55, it finished that day at around $2.70, the next day it opened lower probably around the $2.60 mark, over the next few days it made its way back to close again a bit over $3.00... I'm sure this was all because of my evil downramping!!!

I think you should re-read the posts without rose tinted glasses on, and you will see that there is no ill-intent, and I at no time said that MCR was a bad buy. I said I did want to buy, that I was expecting a good 1/4 report, but that I thought there would be better buying opportunities, and I would not BUY at the $3.00 mark... I at no point said anyone should sell!!! I said a pullback, a pullback is an opportunity to buy at a better price, not a signal to sell, nmentioning that I think a pullback is imminent is hardly irresponsible....

As I said I stuffed up on the $2.00 call, and I should not have mentioned a price without good evidence to support why I mentioned that price, in retrospect it was probably the pullbacks on MRE that I was thinking of, as it was observations on the behavoiur of MRE (being another nickeler) that prompted me to view MCR in the same way. Subsequently when it took off in price as I said before, I implied it was unlikely that my bid at $2.31 would get filled...

Think of me what you like, I'm sure others can make up their own minds.

and just for the record, the monthly RSI is still over 80, watch the weekly, and when it once again reaches 80, then have a look and see if there is another pullback. What the price will be at that time and what it will fall to, I don't know, and I'm certainly not saying wait till that happens to buy, just saying watch it, and see if it was pure co-incidence as you seem to imply if you check the charts, the monthly had been over for a while, the weekly and daily both touched 80 at around that day. Not everything is smoke and mirrors, and your assessment of me couldn't be further from the truth.

Tony.

[kennas]

Guys, I don't think there's been any deliberate downramping here, or anyone has been particularly hostile on the scale of things. Using indicators to predict advances and retractments is OK, but setting price targets is more complex obviously. Not sure how you can do with the RSI alone Tony, which you have admitted to some degree. I suppose the only other tools you could use to support this would be EW, Fib, Gann and support lines. In regard to getting expectations wrong, golly, who ever gets everything right? If we did, I would be on my boat right now somewhere in the Caribbean. You two would be most welcome!

[wintermute]

Thanks Kennas :) Yes you are completely right the RSI cannot be used to predict the magnitude of a pull back, only that a pullback is lilkely, and any Tea leaf reading (ie analysing charts) is subjective and never 100% accurate either (and at times can be monumentally wrong).

Another method such a support/resistance lines or channels, fib points etc (I haven't looked at Gann or Elliot Wave) needs to be used to work out a likely buy point, I chose to use the unfilled gap which failed :) since then I have found out about trend channels, and will likely use them in future.

Once again I apologise if anyone got put off by the $2.00 figure I posted early on... as I said I'm not sure where it came from, if MCR had have been a speccie (something I had been analysing a lot) and not a producer, it may have been reasonable, but it wasn't reasonable, and I'm not sure what planet I was on when I posted it!

Tony.

[kennas]

Tony, you seem to use RSI quite a bit. What do you combine it with to give more validity to your assessment? I don't use it really, but perhaps I should be considering it??

My look at the RSI when combined with other indicators is telling me that this is pretty bullish at the moment and it will most probably break through the short term resistance in this ascending triangle. Looks like a pretty good set up actually for a significant break up. A break down though ascending support line and then around $2.75 and it's looking untidy.

[wintermute]

Hi Kennas, I tried to do a graph to illustrate, but having trouble with Incredible charts, doesn't seem to want to let me plot vertical lines...

I generally just look for patterns, a run, and possibly some candles like a doji or shooting star, volume dropping off is also another sign.. I've learnt the hard way that you need to look back and make sure that there have been previous events too, as RSI in isolation at a particular point in time is useless if there are no previous events to compare it to. Every stock is different, some are predictable some are not, if you can work out a pattern for a stock then it gives you an edge for that stock. Also it is very rare for somenthing to be 100% predictable down to a day or two.. You won't be able to necessarily pick the top, and picking the bottom is something that has eluded me so far (and this is not something I think RSI can help with), generally I pick a figure I think is a possible low, and then put in a bid slightly higher than that.

Also I'm coming to appreciate that you can fine tune it by looking at monthly weekly and daily to try and narrow it down, I found that whilst monthly can be looking overbought on RSI, unless weekly is too, and probably daily then chances are it won't pull back till all are looking overbought, unless there is some external event that triggers it. A look at the last 10 years says that monthly on MCR the RSI is not particularly reliable, interestingly I have a big discrepancy between IC and big charts on where the RSI currently is for MCR with IC showing it down at about 71 and big charts showing it at about 90!!! something to be wary about... I need to investigate this a bit further.

I've previously used RSI mainly for picking pull-backs in up trending stocks to work out an entry point. Though it could also be used to work out when to sell if you are so inclined to take some profits. I did this successfully with CMO offloading part of my parcel at 3.2c to be effectively free carried on the remainder.

Looks like you might be right about MCR getting set for another run. My T/a skills are pretty crude, though I am learning :) I'll do a bit more analysis of my own. I still wonder about that gap down at 2.30, but since it didn't hit it on the 28th feb, I'm thinking it would have to be something pretty major to see MCR drop back to there now! Just noticed one thing though... two spinning tops sitting on the upper bollinger band, this could signal a reversal back to the lower band, the break through 3.25 might be a while yet (of course a spinning top just represents indecision, so it could also mean a break up).... I actually think that with the volatility lately due to uncertainty in the market, that charting is quite a bit less reliable than usual... I will sit back and observe for now :)

Tony.

[chops_a_must]

My look at the RSI when combined with other indicators is telling me that this is pretty bullish at the moment and it will most probably break through the short term resistance in this ascending triangle. Looks like a pretty good set up actually for a significant break up.
Definitely.

MCR is set for a re-rating as they have announced many new projects without movement in the SP. You can have a squiz at the VRE thread to get an indication on potential values.

Wintermute, the reason why the monthly RSI on MCR is so unreliable is because it is lagging new factors by a significant margin. It is effectively indicating past price action without taking into account new fundamental factors. And this is the same with any spec come production companies, especially as they continue to ramp up production etc. It is unfair to base current price action on previous price action when the current influences on the SP are totally different. When that is the case, the daily and weekly RSI is a better indicator and the monthly should be discarded.

[wintermute]

Thanks Chops :) Still learning, so the input is appreciated!!

Tony.

[kennas]

Wintermute, the reason why the monthly RSI on MCR is so unreliable is because it is lagging new factors by a significant margin. It is effectively indicating past price action without taking into account new fundamental factors. And this is the same with any spec come production companies, especially as they continue to ramp up production etc. It is unfair to base current price action on previous price action when the current influences on the SP are totally different. When that is the case, the daily and weekly RSI is a better indicator and the monthly should be discarded.Chops I agree but disagree to some extrent as well. Price action has all available information factored into it, including expectations of future production, commodity price appreciation, and market sentiment to name a few. While it is a lagging indicator, as most indicators are, future production expectations are in there. Somewhere. :) As you say though daily, weekly, monthly indicators will look different across the board, and daily would factor in more immediate changes in information, while monthly will be a smoother indicator appropriate for measuring longer term trends.

[chops_a_must]

Chops I agree but disagree to some extrent as well. Price action has all available information factored into it, including expectations of future production, commodity price appreciation, and market sentiment to name a few. While it is a lagging indicator, as most indicators are, future production expectations are in there. Somewhere. :) As you say though daily, weekly, monthly indicators will look different across the board, and daily would factor in more immediate changes in information, while monthly will be a smoother indicator appropriate for measuring longer term trends.

I also agree and disagree to some extent as well. Mainly, price action having all available information factored into it. As they say, fundamentals lag the market. How often do you see good news abound a stock, for it to do nothing, only to break out a week later? MRE is a classic example of a stock not being rated fully until very late in the piece. MCR have also made announcements relating to new projects over the last 2 weeks, and it may have taken some time for the market to begin factoring that in.

[Seneca60BC]

Hey
Both you guys are professional in what you do - and congrats to both of you on your fantastic profits on MCR!!

Cheers
Shelton.

[Peakey]

Wow, great day for MCR and the MCR thread is a ghost town..... oh I get it, you're all at the pub!!!! :D:D:D

Who would've thought that the price of MCR would be above the price of SMY at this point? At one stage there a few months ago I was thinking of dividing my funds between MCR/SMY, but in the end decided to stick it into MCR.

Chart looks good, I'd interested to know what the EW guys make of it???

Good annoucement today as well didn't hurt either.

Cheers
Peakey

[ktrianta]

Yesterday was good, but 2day is even better. Touched $5.10 and hit the billiion dollar mkt cap club for a little while.

Not a chartist, but seems as though it has broken out of its upward trend channel. From my limited understanding of technical analysis, this would seem to be a very bullish break with more big gains to come.

[Col Lector]

Major positive ann for MCR (&JV 30% partner VRE) with approval/commencement of Carnilya Project. First production expected Jan 2008...

An extract...

"Based on the most recent nickel price forecasts by Royal Bank of Canada, the Project is forecast to
generate more than $200 million net cash before tax, with an internal rate of return (IRR) estimated at
more than 600%. The feasibility study estimates suggest that the project breaks even on a full capital
cost basis at a flat life-of-mine nickel price of A$14,300 per tonne."

[porkpie324]

Yes, it sure has been reasuring that whilst I have been tripping around Europe& the Carribean for the past 3 months that MCR have just about paid for the whole trip, glad I did'nt flick them before I left, porkpie

[Peakey]

While the price of nickel has been in a downward trend recently and with other nickel stocks following suit (MRE IGO AGM), MCR has held up very well.

The chart on MCR is starting to show a few positive signs.

Potential triangle breakout today, on increasing volume. All time high is $5.10. Also a nice white candle and closing on the high of the day, sets up nicely for tomorrow. (Having said that, I've probably just given it the 'kiss of death' now) :eek:

Cheers
Peakey

[porkpie324]

The lure of all that cash in MCR was to much for me I sold my last 10k on 22nd June for $4.60.Your analysis Peaky is probably correct with MCR holding up well, so I will now be using CFDs for future trading in MCR and be buying on any weakness. porkpie

[namkey]

I've held Mincor since I bought them at 68c but I sold out on Monday. Looked like it was gonna take a breather so I moved on. Of course, since I sold out, it's gone up 5.6%. Still believe this one has plenty in it, though the falling Nickel price is putting a negative spin on it.

Seeing as the majority of valuation still use a very low Nickel price though, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this one continue to perform strongly, especially with the management they have. Continueing to use their profits to reinvest heavily in new projects.

[wrxsti]

Mincor's quarterly now out reveals excellent news for View Resources. I would expect View's quarterly to be released Thursday or Friday this week now, and am expecting a very good report - both financially, in Gold production volume output, and forward projections from Bronzewing (VRE - 100%). Coupled with this glowing report on the Nickel front at Carnilya Hill and Zone 29 via J/V partner Mincor (MCR - 70%), the road ahead looks solid, strong and highly profitable, with a high likelihood of further upside and increased resource upgrades via the latest strikes from ongoing and further exploration.
Big overseas money now firmly invested in View with the Singapore consortium firmly entrenched as the No. 1 Ticketholder/Shareholder on the Top 20 register. Easy to see why when you fully analyse this stock as all the boxes have been ticked now, and it will be full speed ahead from here on in.
The relevant excerpts referring to View Resources via the Mincor Quarterly are as follows:

• Carnilya Hill nickel project given go-ahead with
production to commence January 2008

Carnilya Hill (Mincor 70%)
During the quarter, the Company and its joint venture partner
took the decision to proceed with the development of a new
mining operation at Carnilya Hill. The new operation will be
based on an initial ore reserve of 483,500 tonnes @ 2.9%
nickel for 14,000 tonnes of contained nickel metal.
Life-of-mine capital costs are estimated at $28 million.
Production is expected to commence in January 2008 and
ramp up to a rate of approximately 15,000 tonnes of ore per
month, or approximately 5,000 tonnes of nickel per annum
(Mincor’s equity share 3,500 tonnes nickel).
By the end of June Mincor had, after a competitive tender
process, awarded the mining contract to RUC Mining
Contractors Pty Ltd. Surface site works commenced during
June, and as at the date of this report Mincor and RUC had
mobilised to site and underground rehabilitation of the
existing decline was well advanced.

Carnilya Hill (Mincor 70%)
Exploration drilling continued in the quarter with the
completion of two diamond drill-holes and a wedge for 2,112 metres.
CMD026 intersected 3.11 metres @ 3.66% nickel, from
698.74 metres down-hole. This includes 0.36 metres @
17.55% nickel from 698.74 metres down-hole, followed by
1.47 metres of weakly mineralised ultramafic rock and then
1.28 metres @ 1.64% nickel from 700.57 metres. All
intersections are close to true width.
The result indicates a major extension to the mineralised
channel structure at Carnilya Hill, with the new intersection
located 280 metres down-plunge of the last substantial
intersection (2.79 metres @ 8.61% nickel in CMD028W1) in
the mineralised channel. Recently completed down-hole
electro-magnetics (DHEM) indicate the presence of a strong
in-hole/off-hole EM anomaly centred below the new
intersection and extending both up-plunge and down-plunge
to the east and west.
A follow-up hole, CMD026W1, is a downward wedge off the
parent hole CMD026 and intersected 0.31 metres @ 6.05%
nickel from 706.82 metres in matrix and stringer sulphides
mineralisation.
Interpretation of the open intersections down-dip of
CMD028W1 and CMD021 indicates the possibility that the
host ultramafic extends beyond the previously interpreted
limits and if so, could link with CMD026 down-plunge.
CMD034 tested this theory and was drilled 115 metres
down-dip of CMD010W1.
While CMD034 did not intersect significant mineralisation, a
DHEM survey identified a moderate to strong off-hole
anomaly up-dip off the target position. The dimensions of
the anomaly extend from the known mineralisation in
CMD010W1 to a point 50 metres above CMD034. The
anomaly is considered an excellent target to extend the
current limit of the resource and will be tested in the future.
The grades intersected in CMD026, and CMD026W1 coupled
with the newly defined DHEM anomalies highlight the very
strong potential for the Carnilya Hill mineralisation to continue
down-plunge to the west.

Zone 29 East (Mincor 70%)
Zone 29 East is part of the Carnilya Hill Joint Venture and lies
adjacent to the Zone 29 ore body that was previously mined
by View Resources Ltd. The current resource at Zone 29 is
61,100 tonnes @ 3% nickel and is based on 28 reverse
circulation and one diamond drill-hole intersections.
A decision was made to conduct a diamond drilling program
to confirm the current Zone 29 resource as well as attempt to
extend the current mineralised trend. Four diamond drillholes
and a pre-collar (CMD029-CMD033) were drilled at
Zone 29 East for a total of 786.7 metres.
CMD030 and CMD031 were drilled within the Zone 29 East
resource and both returned modest intersections. CMD029
and CMD032 were drilled outside the resource, with only
CMD029 returning some encouragement. The drilling has
indicated the plunge the mineralisation may be steeper to the
east and remains open. This steepened trend will be tested
with the diamond tail of the CMD033 pre-collar.
The Zone 29 East resource will be updated with the latest
drill-hole intersections.
TABLE 4: Assay Results for Zone 29 East Drilling
HOLE ID INTERSECTION
From To Interval Ni%
CMD029 112 112.63 0.63 1.34
CMD030 141.8 143.28 1.48 2.08
CMD031 169.82 170.21 0.39 1.09
CMD032 222.8 222.85 0.05 NSA

Cash and Debt
As at 30 June 2007, Mincor had cash and receivables of
$237.98 million and creditors and accruals of $109.85
million, giving a net working capital position of $128.13
million.
During the quarter the Company made an initial payment of
$11.75 million to the shareholders of Goldfields Mine
Management Pty Ltd (GMM) as part of the $68.5 million
acquisition of that company. On 2 July Mincor made a
further payment of $50.75 million to the shareholders of
GMM. After taking account of that payment, Mincor’s net
working capital position on 2 July was $77.38 million. A
further $6 million (the balance of the $68.5 million purchase
price) remains payable subject to the meeting of certain
conditions pertaining to tenement licences.
During the quarter the Company terminated its $10 million
Revolving Facility with CBA.

wrxsti:)

[porkpie324]

Just as I took great profits on MCR, the present weakness was to much for me I started accumalating the shares last week and this week, the anouncement did not dissapoint either I think there's great potential here. They have fallen further today though, so may need some strong short term nerve's.porkpie

[Buffettology]

Cant beleive no talk a bout this one lately.

It hit a dramatic low on the day the news was released the Director of exploration died. Since then, it has shot up (30% or so?). Huge gains could have been made on this one lately.

[reece55]

Buffett
The one thing I found exceptionally good about MCR was their hedge book disclosed in the financials - I don't know who did it, but they hedged their Nickel production in 08 - 09 at absolutely record prices. I have been meaning to do a mock DCF calculation on the group to come up with a theoretically NPV, but whoever consulted to them on their forward contracts needs a good tap on the back, because unlike the Gold companies, these guys timed it perfectly. With the price of Nickel now half what it was, MCR could do the opposite of NCM by closing out their Nickel forwards and relying on spot for a profit!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers

[michael_selway]

Buffett
The one thing I found exceptionally good about MCR was their hedge book disclosed in the financials - I don't know who did it, but they hedged their Nickel production in 08 - 09 at absolutely record prices. I have been meaning to do a mock DCF calculation on the group to come up with a theoretically NPV, but whoever consulted to them on their forward contracts needs a good tap on the back, because unlike the Gold companies, these guys timed it perfectly. With the price of Nickel now half what it was, MCR could do the opposite of NCM by closing out their Nickel forwards and relying on spot for a profit!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers

Hi do you know why in 2010 theres such a big drop forecast EPS than in 2009?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 51.3 68.3 77.1 31.9
DPS 12.0 17.8 18.5 15.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 68.3 5.3 33.1%
Year Ending 30-06-09 77.1 4.7 12.9%

Thanks

MS

[gfresh]

Acquiring futher assets..



Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has further expanded its strategic growth footprint in the Kambalda Nickel District of Western Australia after reaching agreement with BHP Billiton Limited, its off-take partner, to acquire a major package of highly prospective nickel sulphide exploration tenements in the District. The agreement covers the “Bluebush Line”, which contains numerous high-grade nickel occurrences extending over a strike length of more than 40km.

These include drill intersections of up to 7.15 metres @ 6.14% nickel in the advanced stage Stockwell Prospect.

The Bluebush Line is believed to be the only remaining surface exposure of the basal contact in the Kambalda Nickel District not yet controlled by long-term holders. The basal contact is the stratigraphic position that hosts all known Kambalda nickel deposits.

The Bluebush Line contains numerous known nickel occurrences, including those at Cameron, Lawry, Grimsby and Stockwell.

WMC Resources Ltd completed 34,000 metres of drilling at Stockwell/Grimsby in the late 1990s, outlining a substantial zone of nickel sulphide mineralisation.

No exploration has been conducted anywhere on the Bluebush Line since 2001, leaving the area wide open to the recent advances in geological thinking, geophysical techniques and deep drilling capabilities that have proved so successful for Mincor since it first entered the District nearly 7
years ago.

“We are thrilled at the opportunity to acquire this outstanding package of ground,” said Mincor’s Managing Director, David Moore. “These may be the last of the tenements in the Kambalda Nickel District with genuine near-surface prospectivity.

“We intend to commence an aggressive exploration program as soon as possible, with our focus initially on the Stockwell/Grimsby area, where we believe there is clear potential for the early delineation of a substantial nickel resource,” he continued.

“However, we will also aggressively pursue the entire 40 kilometre strike length of the basal contact along the Bluebush Line – surely one of the best exploration positions in the entire Kambalda District. Outside of three prospect areas, there is not a single drill-hole extending to more than 200 metres in depth.

“This acquisition is further evidence of Mincor’s ability to continue to grow its successful Kambalda nickel business. Opportunities of this quality are rare at any time, and especially so in the current bull market for resource assets,” Mr Moore said.

Under the agreement, Mincor will sub-lease the Bluebush tenements (with rights to explore for and mine nickel) from BHP Billiton until the formal termination of the Nickel Refinery Act, after which it will acquire the tenements outright.

The sub-lease and acquisition terms are confidential but are not considered material to Mincor. The deal includes an off-take agreement for the nickel produced from the tenements. The gold rights to the tenements are held by Gold Fields Limited.

The sub-lease is subject to Ministerial approval and the normal administrative procedures of the relevant Acts. The sale agreement is subject to the termination of the Nickel Refinery (Western Mining Corporation Limited) Agreement Act 1968, Ministerial approval, and normal third party consents under a variety of subsidiary agreements.

[ROE]

This a reasonable resource stock that get a big of a hammer lately so today is my day to jump in.

It also helps knowing the director just paid 20% premium from my purchase price. :D

[imajica]

MINCOR DELIVERS $31.3M INTERIM NET PROFIT,
MAINTAINS STRONG INTERIM DIVIDEND


• Record half-yearly production of 8,196 tonnes nickel in concentrate.
• Net Profit after Tax of $31.3 million for the half year.
• Strong growth in underlying earnings over previous corresponding period.
• Steady interim dividend of 6 cents per share fully franked.
• Cash balance of $110.8M at 31 December 2007 and no debt.
• New mines under development and aggressive exploration underway


Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has delivered another strong half yearly
earnings result, today announcing a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to 31 December
2007 (after writing off $6.3 million in exploration expenditures) and a strong increase in underlying
earnings over the previous corresponding period.
The profit result for the current period was impacted by the extreme volatility in the nickel price between
July and September 2007. The final nickel prices for April to June of 2007 were established during July
to September, and the recognition in the current period of these provisional pricing adjustments reduced
the headline profit number from an excellent $39.7 million (Dec 2006: $37.2 million). The net profit
translated into earnings per share of 15.6 cents (Dec 2006: 19.0 cents).
The robust performance – which was underpinned by record nickel-in-concentrate production of 8,196
tonnes (Dec 2006: 6,888 tonnes) and continued strong operating margins – enabled Mincor to declare
a steady interim dividend of 6 cents per share (fully franked). This will bring the total dividends paid out
by Mincor to its shareholders since 2003 to $56.9 million. The record date for the dividend is 29
February 2008, and the payment date is 31 March 2008.
Operational earnings (revenues minus cash costs excluding provisional pricing adjustments) for the
period under review were $91.9 million (Dec 2006: $76.3 million) and Earnings before Interest, Tax,
Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) were $71.1 million (Dec 2006: $67.84 million). The
recognition of the provisional pricing adjustments referred to above reduced the latter figure from a very
strong $83.1 million.
Cashflows from operations remained exceptionally strong at $70.60 million. After major investments in
acquisitions ($50.3 million), new production capacity ($25.5 million) and exploration ($5.4 million), as
well as paying $37 million in income tax, Mincor’s cash balance at 31 December 2007 was $110.8
million (Dec 2006: $87.4 million).
Mincor’s nickel production for the half year generated increased gross revenues of $164.9 million (Dec
2006: $147.0 million). Average cash costs were A$6.26 per pound of payable nickel, representing a
5% improvement over the A$6.59 per pound incurred during financial year 2006/7.
The average received nickel price was A$14.05/lb (Dec 2006: A$14.26), enabling Mincor to generate an
excellent cash margin of A$7.79 per pound payable nickel (Dec 2006: A$8.11 per pound).
“Mincor continues its outstanding record of delivery,” commented Managing Director, David Moore.
“This will continue through 2008 as we bring two new mines into production and complete our
feasibility work on the exciting Durkin Deeps project, while pursuing our aggressive exploration
programmes in the Kambalda Nickel District and elsewhere.”
MEDIA RELEASE
Tuesday, 19 February 2008

[MRC & Co]

Good company, good management, good profits, good technicals! Looks like this company just experienced a breakout, should be a good run for those on board! All the best!

[chops_a_must]

Read this bizarre article tonight. Not sure what screen this person was looking at :confused: :

Nickel miner Mincor Resources NL has announced a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to December 2007, 16 per cent down on its $37.1 million profit for last year's corresponding period.

The company's shares closed down 27 cents, or 8.7 per cent, to $3.36 each today.

Might look at getting in, near support, stable earnings... look to see if can get to that resistance near the top somewhere...

[explod]

Read this bizarre article tonight. Not sure what screen this person was looking at :confused: :

Nickel miner Mincor Resources NL has announced a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to December 2007, 16 per cent down on its $37.1 million profit for last year's corresponding period.

The company's shares closed down 27 cents, or 8.7 per cent, to $3.36 each today.

Might look at getting in, near support, stable earnings... look to see if can get to that resistance near the top somewhere...

Not sure if you made a typo Chops, I see it the other way.........................................
,, cheers

[chops_a_must]

Not sure if you made a typo Chops, I see it the other way.........................................
,, cheers

That's what I'm saying, it was quoted from an article. It was up 8.7%, not down...

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/60823/Mincor-shares-slide-after-16-interim-profit-loss

[imajica]

How can someone be that clueless and print an article that is completely wrong! IMO Mincor is ticking all the right boxes at the moment. great interim profit result - good solid dividend - aggressive exploration planned - new mines opening - fundamentally you can't fault it at the moment

[imajica]

Mincor up nearly 4 % this morning and has rebounded nicely - seems that negative sentiment has dissolved and fundamentals are truly in play now

[nioka]

Mincor up nearly 4 % this morning and has rebounded nicely - seems that negative sentiment has dissolved and fundamentals are truly in play now
Mincor is only going through pre and ex dividend trading. There are those that held on for the dividend and those that sold pre dividend and rebought ex dividend at a bigger gap than the dividend. I've bought twice in the last week, the first with the dividend and the second ex dividend. I replaced half my redundant AGM with MCR. I chose MCR as my nickel investment based on a fundamental comparison with ZFX (presuming it is nickel after getting AGM) and SMY.

[porkpie324]

And don't forget IGO this junior nickel stock has outperformed all the others during this period. As for MCR I have certainly been adding during this period also, porkpie

[MRC & Co]

Mincor is only going through pre and ex dividend trading.

Sure is.

I bought just before ExDiv and still holding. Got the Div and expect a good run from this one now!

Let this baby roll!

[imajica]

http://www.brr.com.au/event/41510

lengthy presentation at a conference on Boardrooom radio

very promising indeed, highly informative on MCR's current production profile and their exponential growth plans + their expansion into other base metals and even tenements with Uranium up to 1100 ppm

[MRC & Co]

Man, WTF happened to the volume of this one on Friday?

Nickel price up. MACD and RSI right near that mid-range and very bullish!

Now gone ex-div, great recent results, this one could really be set for a big move over the coming weeks!

[imajica]

the rising price of nickel fares well for Mincor as most of their production is unhedged - with two new mines opening soon MCR will shine this year

[MRC & Co]

I agree imajica, though Im still waiting for this one to take off. Its holding relatively steady, which is good considering the market is falling.

However, my copper and gold stocks are ALL green even throughout this downturn. MCR is being held back at the moment, with a bit of a market upturn, we could see this one take off! But first we need that positive sentiment (which appears gone once more at least at this very moment).

[doogie_goes_off]

Well here goes, my first attempt at nailing a macro-cycle on a nickel producer. I am considering using $3.60 as a trigger over the next 6 trading days to confirm my predicted third cyclical growth band and buy in for a $5 three month target, wish me luck!

See TA for my reasoning, fundametally I like this company too.

DYOR, I am not a real chartist, just a bloke with a good imagination.

[eddyeagle]

MCR up 3.64% on a day where the All Ords were down 163 (3%). This is a good sign and the stock is in a nice little uptrend at the moment.

The open briefing released recently was very positive.

Good profits, solid dividends, a diversified mine portfolio, good management.

It surprises me that this stock doesnt receive more attention from fund managers and analysts...

I'm hoping for a return to the $5 glory days in the not too distant future!

[imajica]

Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has added further momentum to the
Feasibility Study on its 100%-owned Durkin Deeps Nickel Project in Kambalda after today announcing
a 42% increase in the Mineral Resource for the project to 18,800 tonnes of contained nickel metal.
Mincor said the substantial increase had been achieved from the first round of resource confirmation
drilling undertaken since the acquisition of the Project in July 2007, with two-thirds of the upgraded
resource now in the Indicated category.
Durkin Deeps is one of a number of key assets acquired by Mincor as part of its purchase of GMM Pty
Ltd last year, creating a substantial new production and exploration centre for the Company. The nearby
Otter Juan Mine is in production and is already making a strong contribution to the Company’s cash
flow and earnings, while the McMahon Project is being developed as a new $23 million mining
operation.
The new Durkin Deeps resource estimate of 18,800 tonnes of contained nickel metal compares with the
original resource of 13,200 tonnes announced when the GMM acquisition was completed. The new
resource estimate is based on 66 drill-hole intersections, including 6 confirmation intersections
completed by Mincor over the past few months.

[MRC & Co]

I was stopped out of this one around $3.10, still love the company and will look to move back in on some strength in XMJ.

Banks are having a bit of a little rally lately, which they were ultimately due for.

[eddyeagle]

Down to $2.61 today. All resource stocks getting hammered. Etrade has a P/E for this stock of 6.55. This is one stock that I will be topping up in the near future along with BHP and a few others that look great value.

[ROE]

too much love for the resource stock, it's their turn to get the hammer :D
with US slow I don't know how China can continue to pay top dollar for resource commodity. Resource commodity price will need to drop much further than where they are today

[imajica]

Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has reaped almost immediate benefits
from its recent acquisition of the Bluebush Line tenement package in the Kambalda Nickel District,
today announcing that it had estimated a Mineral Resource containing 20,800 tonnes of nickel metal at
the Stockwell prospect.Mincor announced the acquisition of the highly prospective ground package – which contains numerous
high-grade nickel occurrences over a strike length of more than 40km – in November last year.
The resource estimation is based on 51 drill holes completed by WMC Resources Ltd in the late 1990’s.
Data verification and quality control has been completed over the past two months, with the quality and
density of the drilling allowing for the estimation of JORC-standard Indicated and Inferred Resources.

[doogie_goes_off]

Well I had no reason to buy in from a market interest point of view, but it looks like a bargain now. Some long term analysis is now required using a conservative nickel price.

[imajica]

with a poor lead from the DOW, Mincor has bucked the trend and has seen some strong buying this morning. market news sinking in I guess!

it was only a week ago or so when this was wallowing at around $2.60
just touched $3.09

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, it seems to have found some good support around the 2.60s area.

Appears for now, the commodity shake-out is over, perhaps a launch up from a higher base now, but volatility is still a worry.

I am within an inch of taking a bite of this one, added KZL back to my portfolio yesterday at its low for the day, following the postive divergence of the XMJ. Will probably buy this one at close.

[nioka]

MCR is a stock that is slipping under the radar. The latest company report makes interesting reading. They quote.

On track for 20 years at 20K tonnes nickel production.

Market cap under $600M and with $110m cash at bank.

On track for record production FY 08 with further production growth FY09.

They quote;
RBC Capital target price $3.70
Patersons target price $3.85
Argonaut target price $3.60

Looking at their figures I can not see why Zinifex chose AGM ahead of MCR. No matter which way I look at it I find MCR the best investment. Zinifex did me a favor by making me sell AGM and investing in MCR and I have my first dividend cheque in the bank as proof. The only worry I have is that MCR must be an attractive takeover target at the moment.

[oldblue]

Ssshh.....
I'm a holder in MCR and have been quietly adding whenever the radar fogs over.
I wonder though if the arrangement that MCR has with BHP as its offtake partner may be a reason why the price isn't higher? Perhaps it makes MCR less attrative as a takeover prospect, knowing that production is committed to BHP at market prices.

[MRC & Co]

I personally, bought this one the other day at 2.77 I beleive, with stops around 2.60 where strong support is seen.

Doing ok off it for now.

But I agree, should be doing better than currently is, but that's no problem for now.

[eddyeagle]

Just read the latest presentation and it sounds very good indeed. Exciting times ahead. I think MCR has very competent management.

I think the recent underperformance is simply due to nervy investors switching from small caps to larger, less volatile companies...

When the markets smooth out later in the year, I would hope MCR would start to approach the analyst's targets of around $4.

[MRC & Co]

I think the recent underperformance is simply due to nervy investors switching from small caps to larger, less volatile companies...

When the markets smooth out later in the year, I would hope MCR would start to approach the analyst's targets of around $4.

Has there been a shift?

Last 12 trading days, these are the % moves of major OZ indices:

XAO: 3.0
XSO: 3.3 (small caps)
XMJ: 12.4 (materials)
XFJ: -4.7 (financials)

Small caps are faring well alongside larger XAO listed companies. Considering MCR is also a materials company, it should be outperforming perhaps........?

Will the market smooth out later in the year? Cannot tell.

Analyst price target of $4? I would take that with a grain of salt.

Agree on one thing though, MCR is a good company and I still hold. Nice +9% in a week :D

Good luck!

[Squawkbox]

Might it be IMC Resources, the backer of troubled View Resources (VRE), that has its eye on Mincor!?

[jonojpsg]

ANyone seen the quarterly yet? Numbers look great - production on track for annual target (4800 tonnes of Ni in quarter). Great cash flow, with current NET cash position of $97m :D

With so much potential going forward (their target is 20000 tonnes of Ni per year for the next 20 years) and possibly even greater targets than that given their tenements positions!!

Must be looking at some solid SP improvements in the near future :2twocents

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, I got out of this one earlier. Disappointing, made a decent profit, but should have let it run further, too tight with my stops in such a volatile environment.

Good luck to all those aboard!

[doogie_goes_off]

I am still waiting for $3.60 trigger buy price, may see it tommorow as people digest the news, could this finally be the breakout I am looking for?? I will be watching closely.

[eddyeagle]

Another very solid report!
I'm just wondering if anything thinks MCR would be a possible takeover target for the OXR/ZFX entity? They are looking at getting into Nickel...

[MRC & Co]

I am still waiting for $3.60 trigger buy price, may see it tommorow as people digest the news, could this finally be the breakout I am looking for?? I will be watching closely.

Why $3.60?

Looks like the breakout is closer than that to me, $3.50?

RSI has formed a bullish divergence, only thing I am worried about is decreasing volume on the up-trend.

All will tell on how much effort is expended to breakout. If the volume picks up and on a wide range, closing through resistance (this is where I would buy in, at close, setting initial stop a little below new support), we could see a nice little run. Fundamentals look good also. Keep your trigger finger loaded! This is of course, assuming it actually eventuates.

[oldblue]

Another very solid report!
I'm just wondering if anything thinks MCR would be a possible takeover target for the OXR/ZFX entity? They are looking at getting into Nickel...

I've always thought that MCR's offtake contract with BHP might lessen its attraction as a T/O target. I suppose it depends on a " predator's " attitude to nickel. They might be quite comfortable just to mine the stuff, pass it on to BHP and accept the contract price if they saw the future price as being sufficiently attractive.
Any thoughts on this?

[MRC & Co]

Why $3.60?

Looks like the breakout is closer than that to me, $3.50?

RSI has formed a bullish divergence, only thing I am worried about is decreasing volume on the up-trend.

All will tell on how much effort is expended to breakout. If the volume picks up and on a wide range, closing through resistance (this is where I would buy in, at close, setting initial stop a little below new support), we could see a nice little run. Fundamentals look good also. Keep your trigger finger loaded! This is of course, assuming it actually eventuates.

Looks like it could be ready to take a breather before it has a crack at resistance. Im sure there will be a few profit taking at this point too, the same ones who have ridden this recent trend upwards.

[MRC & Co]

Looks like it could be ready to take a breather before it has a crack at resistance. Im sure there will be a few profit taking at this point too, the same ones who have ridden this recent trend upwards.

Not sure if I am just talking to myself here.

But these long legged Doji (almost a shooting star) after a solid trend have been fantastic reversal trades lately. An ominous sign for MCR. Tried to push through resistance, but not much effort and the outcome was very weak.

I would expect to see a fall and potentially sharply next week. Only thing that could save it is a big couple nights in Wall St and some solid Nickel price appreciation.

I do not hold.

[nioka]

Not sure if I am just talking to myself here.

But these long legged Doji (almost a shooting star) after a solid trend have been fantastic reversal trades lately. An ominous sign for MCR. Tried to push through resistance, but not much effort and the outcome was very weak.

I would expect to see a fall and potentially sharply next week. Only thing that could save it is a big couple nights in Wall St and some solid Nickel price appreciation.

I do not hold.
I hold a few of these and I'm happy with the way they are going. Forget the charts, look at the fundamentals. This is an investors stock and not a traders one. They keep increasing their reserves and their production. They have good a cash position and a good history for paying franked dividends. The only problem is that they are a possible takeover target. I wish I had more like them.

[MRC & Co]

Over the last year or so the MCR SP has fluctuated and ended up not doing much whatsoever, so not much gain there for investors.

Trading MCR has been one of my best stocks for the year, up there with EQN.

I agree, it is an investors stock, but it is most definately a traders one also.

[treefrog]

I hold a few of these and I'm happy with the way they are going. Forget the charts, look at the fundamentals. This is an investors stock and not a traders one. They keep increasing their reserves and their production. They have good a cash position and a good history for paying franked dividends. The only problem is that they are a possible takeover target. I wish I had more like them.

Gun Investor (mar07): "just bought MCR for $3 - great investment!"
Interested party (jun07): "how goes MCR?"
GI: "great now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an investment"
IP (aug07): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: (nov07): "hows the great investment in MCR?"
GI: "really great, now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an great investment, you really should get some"
IP: (feb 08): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: "there seems to be a pattern there"
GI: "never look at patterns mate, just the fundamentals. A great investment, you should get some."

[nioka]

Gun Investor (mar07): "just bought MCR for $3 - great investment!"
Interested party (jun07): "how goes MCR?"
GI: "great now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an investment"
IP (aug07): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: (nov07): "hows the great investment in MCR?"
GI: "really great, now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an great investment, you really should get some"
IP: (feb 08): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: "there seems to be a pattern there"
GI: "never look at patterns mate, just the fundamentals. A great investment, you should get some."
If I could trade with hindsight I would never be an investor but only a trader. I class myself as an investor who sometimes trades. I usually trade when the fundamentals change and if you check the change in the fundamentals for MCR in the past I may have traded them over that period. I never suggest an investor should never sell. If a stock gets priced higher than the fundamentals suggest then sell and buy again after the correction. eg. In my opinion it would be a good time to sell Westfarmers and look to buy again as they fall while trying to absorb Coles, unless of course coal may offset Coles.

[doogie_goes_off]

Well what do you know, it's cracked 3.60 and it's on a bit of a run, I'm in for good. Good luck to all holders.

[doogie_goes_off]

To quote myself (see previous analysis) - "I am considering using $3.60 as a trigger over the next 6 trading days to confirm my predicted third cyclical growth band and buy in for a $5 three month target, wish me luck!"

I was a bit optimistic with the 6 days thing, but still looking for $5 target (see original graph).

[Col Lector]

URM this week spiked some 200% on news of high grade phosphate "grab-samples" from its Georgina tenements where it was initially targetting Pb-Zn.
Much of the focus of the sharebuying orgy was URM's Qld prospects in the vicinity of Legend's publicised deposits.Product from here would be transported via Qld.
BUT
Mention was also made of the high prospectivity of URM's NT tenements (eg,Boat Hill, Box Hole, Desert Syncline)on the SW margin of the Georgina Basin.
This area is close to Alice Springs and access to the Adelaide to Darwin Railway for despatch.
MCR holds 9000km2 immediately west of Boat Hill...& encircling Box Hole where they are also chasing Pb-Zn MVT deposits.
MCR's land dwarfs Urm's NT holdings and significantly (!how?)coincides with middle Cambrian geology identified as phosphate-prospective.
From the NT Govt's Minerals & Energy Web page...

Mineralisation
The Georgina Basin is prospective for a number of mineral commodities. Known Pb-Zn prospects and occurrences are widespread and throughout the succession from Neoproterozoic siliciclastic rocks to Lower Ordovician carbonate and mixed carbonate-siliciclastic rocks. There is a wide range of mineralisation styles. At the Box Hole Mine, galena and barite occur along 6.5 km of strike in the Late Cambrian Arrinthrunga Formation. About 15 t of ore, averaging 65-70% Pb and 60 g/t Ag, has been handpicked. Mineralisation is stratabound epigenetic replacement and vug-fill in a stromatolitic dolostone, possibly localised by proximity to a feeder fault. Similar surface galena and minor pyrite occur at the Trackrider Prospect. Host rocks are vuggy, siliceous and manganiferous dolostone of the Arrinthrunga Formation, just below the contact with the overlying Tomahawk Formation. Mineralisation at both Box Hole and Trackrider is similar to Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) orebodies. Visible Zn-Pb mineralisation (up to 1.2% Zn) occurs in association with hydrocarbons in and just below a shale cap at the contact of the Arthur Creek Formation and Thorntonia Limestone in Baldwin 1 and may have affinities to Century-type, stratiform, shale-hosted base metal mineralisation. A fault breccia at the Boat Hill Prospect contains two intervals with percent levels of Zn. NTGS drilling also intersected percent levels of Zn and visible galena in Thorntonia Limestone in this area, which considerably extends the area of known mineralisation. Previously undocumented visible galena has also been recognised in the Neoproterozoic Elyuah Formation at the Mount Skinner Prospect in ALCOOTA. This core contains 2.44 m assayed at 0.3 m intervals, all of which is >2000 ppm Pb.

Economic phosphate deposits in Middle Cambrian Georgina Basin rocks are being mined at Duchess in Queensland. In the Northern Territory several deposits of collophane mudstone and pelletal phosphorite have been identified in sedimentary intervals on the Alexandria-Wonarah Basement High (see Regional phosphate prospectivity assessment project). These deposits average about 16% P2O5 and could aggregate to similar tonnages to those being exploited at Duchess. Rio Tinto has recently delineated 72 Mt of phosphate ore at the Wonarah deposit on the Alexandria-Wonarah Basement High. Smaller deposits are known at Alexandria, Alroy and Buchanan Creek.

[doogie_goes_off]

Will hopefully find support at ~$3 but with the nickel price sliding I'd be more inclined to think they may re-think their lower grade prospects and mothball them short term. Grades like >1.5% nickel still present strong targets though. Keep using stainless steel!

[Max_ob]

announcement is out. . . more nickel discovered or potential?

sp has been getting trashed. . . .hope this helps settle this stock. . . .otherwise going from one bad pick to another

[hoppielimp]

Unfortunately its only potential at this stage, but it does show the potential for further extensions. With any luck though the downward pressure on nickel prices will close or put off many pig nickel producers aswell as put all these new laterite mines under a big questionmark.

There was mention in the news that usd 25000 pmt was the range in which pig nickel does not become economical and who knows about laterite mines...all i know is that it is much more expensive thatn sulphide mines.

[So_Cynical]

Well after reading through all this, theres no way im buying at over $2.70.

Looks like ill just wait it out.:mexico:

MCR is paying about the same div of that other nickel producer IGO for
about half the "per share" cost...or am i missing something?

[oldblue]

Well after reading through all this, theres no way im buying at over $2.70.

Looks like ill just wait it out.:mexico:

MCR is paying about the same div of that other nickel producer IGO for
about half the "per share" cost...or am i missing something?

That seems about right.
"The Age" has IGO on a yield of 1.5% from a div of 12cps, SP $6-58: MCR a yield of 3.8% from 12cps div and SP $3-14.
I hold MCR but don't follow IGO so can't comment on their respective merits.

:)

[nioka]

Well after reading through all this, theres no way im buying at over $2.70.

Looks like ill just wait it out.:mexico:

MCR is paying about the same div of that other nickel producer IGO for
about half the "per share" cost...or am i missing something?

Both IGO and MCR have similar market caps. IGO has about $200m cash and MCR have about $110m cash. Their value on that basis is similar.

BUT. IGO are producing only 9000t of nickel per year with a 9 year life whereas MCR are producing 17,000t of nickel, building up to 20,000t per year for 20 years.

Therefore MCR have the likelyhood of increasing dividends and maintaining them for many years. It is my opinion that MCR are the best buy in nickel that there is at the moment. DYOR & MYOD.

[56gsa]

interesting noika - will look into this more

weekly chart suggests support at $2.70 with current trend caught between a downtrend and upward channel - be watching this to see how it resolves...

[eddyeagle]

Took this from the 'Money Morning' email - it's about time Nickel lifted!



***Exploding Gas at Varanus Pushes Nickel Price up 7%

Where’s the money headed today?

Nickel. Strap in.

The explosion at Apache Energy’s Varanus gas plant is jarring the global nickel supply. Australia digs a lot of nickel. Western Australia digs almost all of it. And last year Australia’s hand in global nickel production was 183,000 tonnes. That’s 13% of the world’s nickel.

The thing about nickel smelting, though, is that in WA it runs almost entirely on natural gas.

Minara Resources (ASX:MRE) was the first to fall. The nickel miner says it’ll lose 4,000 tonnes of production from its Murrin Murrin deposit this year. It depends entirely on Varanus for energy.

No-one knows yet how much the explosion will affect Australia’s overall nickel game. But it’s really not helping companies like Minara.

Commodity traders everywhere took note, sending nickel up 7% yesterday. In short, there could easily be a nickel shortage this year.

But the metal sells for half the price it sold for a year ago. It’s a tick under US$10 per pound. Two weeks back, nickel didn’t have a friend in the world. Now it’s getting more attention than a woman at a Star Trek convention. Supply and demand is a wonderful thing.

We have a feeling there are a few more companies keeping secrets out there.

Expect more production guidance from West Australian companies. Particular of the nickel-digging variety.

[eddyeagle]

MCR has really tanked in the last few weeks.

Anyone got any thoughts?

Worth topping up?

What about the price of Nickle? It has also been smashed recently. Anyone got any predictions?

[madbull]

The drop in nickel price has really smashed a lot of the Nickel mining companies. I too would like to hear peoples thoughts about MCR...

[derty]

Mincor are probably the most solid of the nickel producers in the southern Yilgarn. They have good reserves, they are aggressive in finding near-mine Ni tonnes, they have some good brownfields exploration plays going and their cash cost of production is around A$14,000/Ni tonne which gives them a bit of headroom at the current prices.

But at the end of the day they are a slave to the nickel price.

I will also add something that was brought up in a conversation I was involved in. I have not been able to verify this from online sources, so please take with a grain of salt:

The economics of producing Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) to date has placed a floor under the nickel price of around US$22,000Ni tonne as the producers we only paid for the value of the contained nickel. (i.e. at less than $22k the NPI producers fall over and the Ni supply reduces and prices rise) I was told that now the NPI are being paid for the contained iron and cobalt in their product that will allow them to continue producing at a much lower cost. The figure bandied about was US$8500. If so the Ni price can potentially fall further than it has, though there would already be marginal miners at current prices so the reduction in supply would come from mines closing and a floor in prices would be at a higher level than $8500.

From looking into this, most of the articles are saying that the NPI producers would forced to close which is contrary to what I have heard. If anyone has supporting or contradicting information it would be good to know if there is any validity to the NPI producers being paid for Fe and Co credits.

[Whiskers]

From looking into this, most of the articles are saying that the NPI producers would forced to close which is contrary to what I have heard. If anyone has supporting or contradicting information it would be good to know if there is any validity to the NPI producers being paid for Fe and Co credits.

Wayne Ryder from EYE seems to be saying that he's counting on added value from contained cobalt in his latest report... although I don't know how they intend to process it yet. Last time I spoke to him (a few months ago) he wasn't too phased by the fall in Ni prices. He's now looking at getting into prodoction pretty quickly with a JV with POS.


We are comfortable in employing a cut off grade of 0.5% Nickel after considering the presence in the
ore of very valuable Cobalt, currently selling at approx 4.5 times the price of Nickel, and which is
readily recoverable in the processing of ore for Nickel.

[tech/a]

While i like rescourses for the long term future I really think that until the US gets sorted out and real growth and demand returns Rescources will continue to disappoint.

[doogie_goes_off]

Near to mine intercepts announced today should keep production figures on the increase for the coming financial year. I guess that there is still potential for triple figure profit if nickel creeps back above $20k/t but I guess it's a waiting game and one that many will not have the patience for.

[doogie_goes_off]

Fundamental base case for MCR at current nickel price.

Cost to produce 1 lb nickel $6.50, sale of 1lb nickel $7.87 (spot price Kitco base metals). This is a margin of $1.37/lb or 17.4% margin on sales.

Lets take a base case of 15,000 t Nickel (likely to be more next year)

15,000 x $17,445/t x 17.4% = 45.5 million earnings

EPS = 45.5/197 = 23c/share minimum at current spot price

Looks undervalued, there must be some real negative sentiment around nickel keeping this one down.:confused:

[jonojpsg]

Fundamental base case for MCR at current nickel price.

Cost to produce 1 lb nickel $6.50, sale of 1lb nickel $7.87 (spot price Kitco base metals). This is a margin of $1.37/lb or 17.4% margin on sales.

Lets take a base case of 15,000 t Nickel (likely to be more next year)

15,000 x $17,445/t x 17.4% = 45.5 million earnings

EPS = 45.5/197 = 23c/share minimum at current spot price

Looks undervalued, there must be some real negative sentiment around nickel keeping this one down.:confused:

Hey Doogie,
I would say the negative sentiment keeping MCR down is that if Ni goes below $14000/t then MCR will have to look at closing their lower grade operations!!

Don't know if that's likely?

[boid]

in addition to doogie info...it is worth remembering....
'Mincor maintains a healthy hedge book, and has approximately 15% of its production to March
2010 hedged at an average price of A$34,420 per tonne.'
this is taken from a feb 2008 mincor media release.

[treefrog]

While i like rescourses for the long term future I really think that until the US gets sorted out and real growth and demand returns Rescources will continue to disappoint.

it's all that pesky chartist fella's fault - (tech-a or something) said it would go down more and it has.

frogs were buying at 65 and selling at 75 a few years back - looking good for a bit of deja vu

[eddyeagle]

Nickel has bounced approx 20% in the last few weeks and MCR has bounced from a low of $1.51 to close at $2.00 today which is encouraging... IMO the small cap resources have been way oversold and look great value at current levels...

[eddyeagle]

Anyone got any thoughts on Mincor?

Share price has been smashed down below $1.50.
This stock was trading above $5 late last year!
They recently announced a profit of 64 Mil and the dividend for 07/08 was 12 cents, which if maintained gives a yield of 8.3% on current prices!

Nickel price has fallen to around 18500 but apart from that - this company has everything going for it IMO!

Interested to hear people's thoughts!

[Out Too Soon]

Anyone got any thoughts on Mincor?

Share price has been smashed down below $1.50.
This stock was trading above $5 late last year!
They recently announced a profit of 64 Mil and the dividend for 07/08 was 12 cents, which if maintained gives a yield of 8.3% on current prices!

Nickel price has fallen to around 18500 but apart from that - this company has everything going for it IMO!

Interested to hear people's thoughts!

Same disease as OZL & others at the moment, doesn't matter how good it is, it's got the grizzly bears.:mad:

[eddyeagle]

Same disease as OZL & others at the moment, doesn't matter how good it is, it's got the grizzly bears.:mad:

Agree with that!

So what are medium - long term investors doing? Are people topping up at these levels? Averaging in?

[nioka]

Agree with that!

So what are medium - long term investors doing? Are people topping up at these levels? Averaging in?

Buying a few more and averaging down. Waiting for a dividend. Keeping an eye on the fundamentals. You only lose money when you sell, the SP value changes daily in dollars and cents but the true value of the company changes very little. I'm happy to hold but in saying that I am trading back and forth between OZL and MCR as their relative SP value changes.

[oldblue]

I reckon MCR is a particularly well run company, mining high grade deposits. The problem is that it is a nickel outfit and the PoN has been in a downtrend for the last 12 months. While this has shown a few tentative signs of turning up in the last month or so, nickel stocks are fairly high and have increased recently.
So I'll wait to see more evidence, both SP-wise and in the PoN before buying more.

Disc: Small holding.

;)

[eddyeagle]

Think I will continue to top up. In a couple of years I will either be laughing all the way to the bank or bankrupt!

From todays AIR midday review:

Mincor (MCR) said it has increased resources by 14% to a record of 167,300 tons as of FY end. Production target is 19,500-20,000 tons for FY09 and MCR said it’s focused on margin improvement and reduction in cash costs amidst falling nickel prices. MCR down 1%.

[oldblue]

I'm sorely tempted to buy a few more - at $1-18 !
Profitable company, even at today's Ni prices, historical P/E less than 4 !
Need to keep repeating to myself to wait for the trend to change. When it does I'll be buying.

;)

[deadset]

Thanks for the heads up, I had some small money on it when it went down so its been perplexing how both MCR and OZL have lost a lot lately. I'll keep my eye on it for now, might be a jump soon, I'll have to see how the dust settles after this week.

[doogie_goes_off]

Everyone's waiting for the trend to change, but it's falling knives for me at $1.29 and $1.19. Crossed fingers we are near bottom.:)