CSM - Consolidated Minerals [Archive]

Yippyio

5th-October-2005, 09:54 AM

FYI - Mining News Article

Boom times for the 'next BHP'

Monday, October 03, 2005
WITH record profits and dividends galore, this market darling has no plans to slow down. By Michael Quinn - RESOURCESTOCKS*

It has been one of the real standout miners over the past couple of years, achieving multiple capital growth and paying nearly $70 million to shareholders in dividends. The question is, where to from here for Consolidated Minerals?

Fiscal 2005 was an absolute boomer for ConsMin. Net profit went from a little over $25 million in 2004 to more than $70 million, including a trading profit of some $51 million out of earnings of $110 million (EBITDA).

While most of the increase was attributed to the strong commodity prices, volume increases also played a role as production increased at the company's mainstay Woodie Woodie and Coobina operations in Western Australia.

This year the miner is pumping for gross earnings of $140 million, with the forecast predicated on increased production of manganese and chromite (and a 15% decrease in prices), and a growing contribution from nickel.

ConsMin managing director Michael Kiernan is unfazed by queries over the manganese price, which, especially in the shorter term, would clearly play the lead role in acting out ConsMin's forecasts.

While the price has been down on the highs of the last couple of years, he points to its historical alignment with iron ore prices – which, incidentally were upgraded by one prominent brokerage/investment bank last month (September) despite the staggering gains made at the last round of price negotiations – plus the "quality" of Woodie Woodie's high-grade product and ConsMin's independent supplier status.

"What happens to iron ore will happen to manganese," Kiernan says.

Meanwhile, ConsMin's reliance on its manganese earnings will lessen as its nickel strategy kicks in over the next couple of years. Manganese's contribution to earnings is expected to slip from around 70% to 40%, at which point nickel will be delivering a similar percentage. More on that later.

Cutting to the chase, over the next three-to-five years, ConsMin managing director Michael Kiernan is targeting a capitalisation that's at least twice that of current levels. On top of the capital growth, investors can also look forward to at least 50% of the company's profits being returned to them in the form of dividends.

The dividends provide a beguiling mix indeed, and a major point of difference from most of the rest in the notoriously capital thirsty resources sector.

A strong endorsement of the veracity of ConsMin's ambitions is to be found at Macquarie Bank, which recently published comprehensive research report on ConsMin startlingly titled - "Building the next BHP?"

Macquarie's claims for ConsMin note the miner's aggressive organic growth phase of recent years, two ambitious company-changing deals – a failed merger attempt with second tier iron ore producer Portman and more recently a near-miss with the world-class Hope Downs iron ore project – and a host of investments in a range of small explorers.

Macquarie's "price target" was $4.15 (in late-July), with company's valuation on an "as is" basis that excluded the near mine exploration potential and growth strategy, both of which it said have the ability to add "considerable value" in the short term.

The investment bank claimed ConsMin had the necessary building blocks in place "to develop into a major diversified mining house", and was primed for further corporate action.

"As part of building a portfolio of diversified mining assets, ConsMin is likely to undertake a considerable amount of corporate activity, at either the company or the asset level," Macquarie said.

"While this adds a layer of acquisition risk, ConsMin has managed to ameliorate some of this risk through the use of ConsMin scrip as consideration.

"Also ConsMin's 'shot gun followed by rifle shot' approach has proved successful."

This colourful description refers to ConsMin's strategy of initially making multiple investments in promising exploration companies, before…

Yippyio

5th-October-2005, 09:56 AM

Article Cont. - Part 2

Boom times for the 'next BHP' - Part 2

Monday, October 03, 2005
This colourful description refers to ConsMin's strategy of initially making multiple investments in promising exploration companies, before taking that investment further in individual companies or projects if subsequently warranted.

The effectiveness of this approach was recently played out in the case of Titan Resources, with ConsMin deciding to step away from its initial investment in Titan before subsequently taking a joint venture option over one of the junior's more advanced nickel assets – Armstrong.

Other investments include just under 20% of nickel-copper explorer Mithril Resources, and a similar stake in budding copper-zinc miner Jabiru Metals, which is in the process of becoming a 8000-10,000 tonnes per annum copper and 20,000-25,000tpa zinc producer (as well as around 800,000oz of silver). Kiernan anticipates a doubling of these production rates, and ConsMin is widely considered likely to end up with up with either the bulk of the project or Jabiru itself.

However it really is nickel that is at the core of ConsMin's efforts to stay on the high side of the growth road.

Production from the company's assets in the Kambalda region is being targeted to grow around five-fold over the next five or so years - from around 4000-5000tpa to some 20,000-25,000tpa.

Output from the existing Beta Hunt operation plus the developing East Alpha mine will push ConsMin's output to an annual rate of around 10,000t in the current fiscal year.

Kiernan says the aim is to develop a mine a year for the next few years, with Foster likely next year and exploration worth around $10 million per annum being undertaken to ensure it remains a reality thereafter.

Current resources stand at some 74,000t of contained metal, with immediate potential seen to increase in a 400m area between East Alpha and the historic Silver Lake mine to the north, WMC's original mine at Kambalda.

Meantime, the company is also planning to build its own concentrator in the Kambalda region, and, significantly, it is likely to introduce a Chinese partner into the development despite the mooted $15 million or so plant cost being but a minor percentage of ConsMin's current cash holdings.

"Hands over the sea" is how Kiernan describes this "strategic partner" initiative, which would seem more than likely to attract serious attention from resource hungry groups in China.

Further down the track, the company's iron ore assets (Mindy Mindy, Shaw River) in the Pilbara will emerge, with the lack of available infrastructure the current constraint. ConsMin's relationship with the ambitious Fortescue Metals Group is the key to unlocking the value in these assets.

For those bullish on China, and hence the commodities being produced by ConsMin, the following comments by analysts Huntleys succinctly capture the essence of the company.

"In a few short years, CSM has developed a reputation for aiming high and delivering the goods," Huntleys said.

"Return on equity has averaged a stunning 40% per annum for the past five years … (while) dividends have compounded at an impressive 63% per annum over the last four years, with more to come.

"CSM has a modest forward PE and attractive fully franked yield (at a share price of $4.02).

"The company has shown it can successfully grow through exploration, expansion and acquisition. China provides CSM an opportunity to grow into the vacant mid tier mining space.

"The company is moving rapidly and efficiently to take advantage of the cyclical upturn with an impressive armoury of growth options."

* This report, first published in the September/October 2005 edition of RESOURCESTOCKS magazine, was commissioned by Consolidated Minerals

amohonour

27th-October-2005, 03:43 PM

Can this company still pull things off without Keirnan or are they going to be just as strong? sp seems to say otherwise lately.

Kauri

28th-October-2005, 10:31 AM

I tend to think that CSM has been way oversold on the news of Kiernans departure, I admire the way he built the company up from nothing, but to say he was worth 30% of the companies market cap is, I think, overdone. Will be waiting patiently for a chart based signal to enter when insto's have settled down.

West Australian today
ConsMin eyes buy-back

MICHAEL WEIR

Consolidated Minerals is likely to start buying back its own shares on the market after a 10 per cent slump yesterday to a six-month low overshadowed plans for a major $120 million expansion of its Kambalda nickel operations.

Managing director Michael Kiernan said the share rout, triggered by an investment fund dumping stock, was a "serious overreaction" and one that could trigger buying under the company's 5 per cent share buy-back program. ConsMin last bought shares under the facility in March when the share price was around $3.20, just 5¢ below yesterday's close.

Market traders said yesterday's 35¢ share price hammering, the heavy volume of 5.4 million shares and the aggressive nature of the sell-down suggested an insititutional investor had quit its position.

Southern Cross Equities was behind the selling, feeding 3.4 million shares into the market and was still offering more than 160,000 shares at $3.25 at the close.

"They didn't want to scare the market so they drifted in and sold all day, but when they exhausted the buying they have driven the price down to get some volume happening," one stockbroker said.

Nearly $160 million, or 18 per cent, has now been wiped from ConsMin's market value since WestBusiness revealed two weeks ago that Mr Kiernan was planning to leave after institutional shareholders raised concerns about a new lucrative employment contract for the chief executive.

Yesterday marked the first exit of one of the company's institutional shareholders since the pay row, with the bulk of the earlier selling coming from retail shareholders concerned about what impact Mr Kiernan's exit would have on the company.

The manganese and chromite miner revealed yesterday it had its sights set on becoming a major nickel player in Kambalda by building a $25 million stand-alone concentrator capable of producing up to 25,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate a year, in competition with BHP Billiton's WMC processing operations.

ConsMin's concentrator would be fed from a planned $95 million underground expansion of its existing operations, picked up in last year's $76 million takeover of Reliance Mining, and would also be open for business as an alternative treatment option for other miners in the area.

Mr Kiernan said the nickel expansion would help unlock the broader nickel potential of the area.

"Based on the geological assessment of our team as well as historical data and mining information, we believe that there is a potential nickel endowment of up to 240,000 tonnes with an in-ground value at current nickel prices in excess of $2.5 billion if the mineralisation is shown to be continuous," he said.

He said the first phase of the programe involved the $45 million development of twin exploration declines to access a potental 90,000t of nickel about one to 2km to the south-east of the current Beta Hunt-East Alpha mine.

If that program was successful, ConsMin would commit a further $50 million, funded out of cash flow, to further extend the twin exploration declines 3km to the south, targeting an estimated potential nickel endowment of up to 150,000 tonnes.

Feasibility studies on the plan are being finalised and the board is expected to make a final decision at its November meeting.

"But it is one of those things I would say is a must-do, not a like-to-do," Mr Kiernan said.

He said the company would make a decision before December on pushing ahead with plans to establish its own concentrator in Kambalda. He said the company was looking at the possibility of converting the old Burbanks gold mill from Coolgardie into a nickel processor, which would help cut the development time from two years to 12-18 months.

"To get our own concentrator gives us greater revenue per tonne, reduces our conversion costs and also gives us the ability to blend other ores, particularly (Titan's) Armstrong ore, and also acquire nickel from other players," he said.

"We then sell our concentrate direct to China."

Lachlan6

28th-October-2005, 04:33 PM

Howdi Jay. From a technical perspective, it would seem that this weeks action has been very negative for CSM. In fact todays fall has seen a crucial support level at around $3.20 fail. This weeks fall has been accompanied by huge volume which has further negative reprocussions. OBV has dropped off, while there has also been negative divergence in the RSI. I personally would not be holding this stock in my portfolio after this weeks action. Another option is to go short as a CFD and leverage the downside. If I am wrong, CSM would need a strong surge back through $3.20. Definenetly a possibility. However the smart money seems to be getting out of CSM currently. Just my opinion. Cheers mate.

dandyandy

30th-October-2005, 06:44 PM

CSM support level is $3.00...short-term resistence should be $3.25.

It should rebound from here, but await some directions from LME i would say and hopefully through mid November will recover to be above $3.50.

There are also rumours of a share buyback in the immediate future which should hold prices above $3.25.

Just have to wait and see...

note this isnt advice just my thoughts.

amohonour

31st-October-2005, 08:24 AM

I think this is one of those stocks that i will be saying to myself later that i could have bought in at 3.00 if you know what i mean. Still remember when mining news article branded thisone as the next BHP big call but if they are right imagine what 3.00 wiil look like then lol i got out and not back in yet will live to regreti it im sure :banghead:

Kauri

1st-November-2005, 10:04 AM

Kiernan moves to steady ship

MICHAEL WEIR

Outgoing Consolidated Minerals boss Michael Kiernan has offered to stay at the manganese, chromite and nickel miner until mid-2007 after an outcry by small shareholders over his decision to quit next year in the wake of a pay row with some institutional investors.

Kauri

7th-November-2005, 06:20 PM

Well CSM may :dunno: be forming a reversal triangle, too early to say if it is an ascending or equalateral, or indeed a triangle at all, also would have more confidence if it was bouncing off atrend line or support/resistance but still warrants watching for mine.

Lachlan6

7th-March-2006, 02:02 PM

Just a quick note on CSM. I posted late last year in October that CSM had breached support which indictated a very negative signal for this stock. Well since then CSM has been punished. It closed that week at $3.12 and is currently trading at $2.26. It has broken through 50% fibonacci retracement support and its next support is around fibonacci $1.80. OBV has fallen through the floor. Dont want to be too negative , but it can be painful ignoring strong technical signals, especially when they are on the downside. (Unless you are short selling :))

Ann

8th-March-2006, 12:13 PM

Hi Lachlan6,

It does seem to have a battle on its hands doesn't it?

Let's see if the reaction to the recent Open Briefing will breath new life into the price.

6/03/2006 Cons Minerals. MD on Results & Growth

http://www.corporatefile.com.au/documents/OB/MD%20on%20Results%20&%20Growth%2006.03.06.pdf

Jay-684

9th-March-2006, 12:52 PM

doesnt look good :(

I'm just pleased I sold @ 2.60 last week, after weeks of waiting for it to get back up to $3.00

still a 80% profit so not unimpressed, just a far cry from the 160% it was returning 12 months ago

redandgreen

4th-April-2006, 06:27 PM

to those who follow this stock,
your thoughts would be appreciated.
Should I continue to hold or is it headed back down again?

Broadside

4th-April-2006, 06:39 PM

I am a long term holder. It has been a bumpy ride the past year, am hanging on it has good exposure to the resources boom and especially China, I think it is a stock worth holding long term IF you believe the resources boom can continue medium term. Here is a good article for you to read which gives an overview of where we are now at:

from Australian Financial Review

ConsMin fights to restore credibility
Author: Jo Clarke
Date: 23/03/2006
Words: 885
Source: AFR
Publication: The Financial Review
Section: Market Wrap
Page: 25

It has been a tough six months for Consolidated Minerals, with a collapse in the manganese price and disruption in the top management interrupting the company's ambitions to fill the gap left by the recent disappearance of WMC Resources and MIM.
The next 12 months is crucial as the company moves to further reduce its reliance on manganese and chromite, while new managing director Rodney Baxter stamps his authority on what has long been predecessor Michael Kiernan's baby, with plans to invest overseas.

Mr Baxter will assume the top job on July 1 and plans to be his own man despite the enigmatic Mr Kiernan remaining on the board as a non-executive director.

Mr Kiernan announced his resignation in October after a handful of fund managers refused to endorse his remuneration package.

"The new MD is a bit more old-school in terms of mining, a bit more conservative and reserved, but that is not to say that he won't put his own stamp on the direction of the company," BT portfolio manager Tim Barker said.

The changeover is likely to lead to volatility in the ConsMin share price in the next few months while the market gets used to Mr Baxter, another analyst said.

"People don't like change, they want evidence that he will be able to deliver, particularly as the company has been through some tough times lately," he said.

Mr Baxter, with his background at Anglo American in South Africa, has already flagged a desire to turn ConsMin into an international company. Africa is high on Mr Baxter's list of potential investments, but that may not be appreciated by ConsMin's Australian shareholder base.

"The Australian market will try to ignore it," Mr Barker said.

"African assets have always been discounted by the Australian market, but that is not to say that others - most noticeably the Canadians - will not value it."

ConsMin, under Mr Kiernan, has been accused of a scatter-gun approach to acquisitions and Mr Baxter will have to be careful not to perpetuate this in his overseas ambitions.

An eastern states roadshow by Mr Kiernan and Mr Baxter earlier this month has boosted the share price by about 25? to $2.50, but it is still well below the high of $4.38 achieved in August before Mr Kiernan resigned and the extent of the manganese cool-down became apparent.

Mr Kiernan recently reiterated the company's philosophy of returning at least 50 per cent of profits to shareholders, while continuing to seek acquisitions.

Analysts expect ConsMin to pay a total dividend this financial year of about 10? a share, giving a yield of around 4 per cent, broadly in line with that estimated for nickel producer Minara Resources, but well above the prospective 1.76 per cent for diversified miner Straits Resources.

ConsMin is trading at 20 times estimated 2006 earnings, well above the price-earnings multiples of 7.5 times for Minara and 8.6 times for Straits Resources.

The high multiple is in part due to depressed forecast earnings of about $25 million because of an expected fall in manganese prices and volumes, particularly in the first half of the financial year.

The company was built on manganese, but the manganese market - dominated by BHP Billiton and Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce - has suffered falling prices in the past 12 months because of oversupply and destocking by Chinese alloy producers.

The price has fallen sharply from a high of $US4 a tonne in early 2005, but seems to have levelled out at about $US2.50 as Chinese buyers return to the market.

ConsMin remained bullish on manganese prices throughout 2005, despite the falls, and lost a certain amount of credibility in the market.

From manganese it was a logical step to buy the Coobina chromite mine - both commodities are used in steel making and have significant marketing synergies.

Mr Kiernan has said publicly he will not invest in any more chromite mines once Coobina runs out of ore, because the barrier for competitors to enter chromite mining is too low.

After chromite, Mr Kiernan turned his attention to nickel, with the acquisition of Reliance Mining last year.

ConsMin is also in a joint venture with Titan Resources to develop the Armstrong nickel deposit.

The Armstrong ore was rejected by BHP because its specifications did not meet the Kambalda concentrator's needs and ConsMin is threatening to build its own concentrator to process it.

There has been speculation that ConsMin will move to take over Titan, although this may not be on the agenda of the new boss.

Buying into Jabiru Metals was ConsMin's first move into base metals.

Mr Kiernan is keen to gain control of Jabiru's Jaguar copper-zinc project, but so far Jabiru MD Gary Comb has rejected advances regarding a joint venture.

"The 30 per cent [holding in Jabiru] is probably enough in terms of having sufficient influence over what the company does," Mr Barker said.

But to be able to do exactly what it wanted, ConsMin would have to take over Jabiru, and that was unlikely to happen until the Jaguar project was much closer to production.

KEY POINTS

* Rodney Baxter takes over as managing director on July 1.

* Baxter is considered an 'old-school', conservative miner.

* ConsMin lost credibility over its optimism on manganese prices.

redandgreen

4th-April-2006, 07:51 PM

very useful
thx
probably sit it out until end of June (and hopefully beyond....)

RichKid

4th-May-2006, 09:35 PM

Looks like CSM is struggling again, could be in for a fight with the Titan takeover, still quite a way from the recent bottom but it only takes a little bit of a push with volatile stocks like this to get it going down again.

GreatPig

4th-May-2006, 10:08 PM

Looks like CSM is struggling again
Sold it today after yesterday's drop through the $2.60 level.

Was hoping for an up-side break out of the triangle.

Cheers,
GP

Kipp

4th-May-2006, 11:50 PM

GP- are you sure there isn't some long-term value here? CSM has been punished by the market, but Hartley's, Patterson's, ABN Amro and co have all given BUY valuations in recent reports (valuation s of ~$3.20) and pretty healthy FY07 profit forecasts of in th 55-65mill range.
Equally well, Huntley's has admitted they had BUY or Hold for CSM in 05 when it went down the sink.

CSM also positive ASX announcement today (increased nickel grades) but nothing could stop the horror run of today... all of my watchlist in the red! (Except IDO which had a cracking day.. up 16%!)

Fin Review suggests CSM might have some competition for Titan, but even if it misses out still retains a 20% stake and some 33% of JML.

RichKid

5th-May-2006, 12:00 AM

Looks like the market didn't care much for the positive Nickel announcement which came out mid afternoon, selling continued strongly into the close of trade, high volume, wide ranging down day, not good, I have a feeling there may be more bad news to come, the price chart suggests it- or maybe it was just a lot of weak hands being shaken out due to general bearish sentiment? We'll know in the next two or three days once the trend is confirmed or reversed.

PS. I like this stock fundamentally but as a trader there is no reason for me to go long atm.

Kipp

5th-May-2006, 08:35 AM

Looks like the market didn't care much for the positive Nickel announcement which came out mid afternoon, selling continued strongly into the close of trade, high volume, wide ranging down day, not good

Hard to read too much into it though... it was such a horror day for all!!! :mad:

But the fundamentals sound nice (course if Mn slips any more profit downgrades for 07 and 08 are pretty severe)

GreatPig

5th-May-2006, 08:44 AM

are you sure there isn't some long-term value here?
There could well be, but for me this was a trading stock that failed according to my management plan. Success was an upward break out of the triangle, failure a close below $2.60.

It failed, it went.

Cheers,
GP

GreatPig

5th-May-2006, 07:50 PM

<sigh> why doesn't that surprise me...

GP

Kipp

10th-May-2006, 07:20 PM

Richo, GP- do you think that CSM revised bid for Titan is a bit excessive? Or still reasonable at 1:27 ratio?

RichKid

10th-May-2006, 07:47 PM

Richo, GP- do you think that CSM revised bid for Titan is a bit excessive? Or still reasonable at 1:27 ratio?

Hi Kipp,
To be perfectly honest: I have no idea, but judging by their Nickel strategy and long term outlook for Nickel it should prove to be reasonable, but the TTN holders are getting a great deal as CSM sp is very low atm imo and the new offer is a big improvement on the first, the TTN directors have done well, I assume this is all at arms length as CSM owns a big chunk of it. I'll search for some articles on the deal and post it here, please do the same if you find anything.
I haven't read the open briefing yet, that might have clues, announced today. Eitherway I like CSM.

noirua

24th-May-2006, 09:22 AM

CSM have collapsed from the $4.50 level and now is the time, imho, to start looking at them again. Now is the time to consider a contrarian view.

The share buy-back is about halfway through now and stock is being cancelled at a low price level.
CSM announced an increase in their holding of Titan from 26.22% to 28.09%.

This stock still has a strong following in the UK ( CNM or CNM.L ) and is still one of the Aussie success stories on the LSE.AIM market.

noirua

6th-June-2006, 12:30 PM

Still interested in CSM and wondering when a move should be made, as I'm trying to avoid catching the falling knife. They are determined at the moment to continue building their holding in Titan despite many voicing concern. Perhaps an opportunity to buy a little cheaper will raise its friendly head.

mlennox

6th-June-2006, 01:37 PM

RichKid

6th-June-2006, 01:50 PM

After presentation to Sydney mining club yesterday where profits for 07,08 were forecast to powerfully to profitability.

Against the trend of the market today CSM has rallied strongly and on accompanying volume. The stochastic shows it is oversold and may be ready to reverse from the current downtrend. Be alert for break of downtrend and aggressive traders could look to take part position here. Stop loss on break of days low $1.73

:2twocents :2twocents :2twocents

Still looks in the doldrums to me, have to question management credibility re profit forecasts after this year's anncts. Look at the number of times it appeared to 'break' the downtrend, only to fall further. No one should construe posts on ASF as constituting financial advice of any kind.

RichKid
moderator

scsl

7th-August-2006, 12:19 PM

noirua

7th-August-2006, 12:28 PM

has CSM finally fallen enough?? it seems to have found support around the $1.70-$1.80 level... however, i am not yet confident of buying because when it last found support levels on the way down from its peak one year ago, it has continued to break these levels and fall.

is anyone buying CSM atm or contemplating it?

I am still contemplating buying CSM. Uncertainty is the name of the game both on Aussie and UK bulletin Boards at the moment.

Probably worth more than $1.79 but may go lower, all the same, in the short term.

Ken

11th-October-2006, 10:25 PM

CSM's richard carter just bought 100,000 shares.

if the price breaks $2 could this be seen as a buying opportunity

GreatPig

11th-October-2006, 10:41 PM

CSM appears to be forming a slow fan bottom.

I had considered buying it yesterday, and again earlier today, but now it's too close to the $2 mark, which matches the recent peaks and also the main downtrend line. If it drops down around the $1.70 mark again, or breaks above $2, I'll probably consider it again.

Cheers,
GP

Ken

11th-October-2006, 10:50 PM

taking the stock as a long term view and not as a day trade how does it look?

i think if resources will continue to fire and they are set to benefit if management can get there **** together

Freeballinginawetsuit

16th-October-2006, 03:33 PM

CSM seems to have broken through the $2.00 resistance with volume confirmation. Could be the start of something!.

Its been a decent channel trader for 4 months but could be on its way to a return to a decent/fair value SP.

It has plenty of potential, but crap a MD that was replaced months back, so hopefully the new team is turning them around.

porkpie324

16th-October-2006, 03:53 PM

Holding CSM I got through Titan res. Hav'nt done much when compered to other miners, I think they suffered by being to optomistic and not living up to expectations also change in CEO did'nt helpporkpie

Freeballinginawetsuit

16th-October-2006, 09:28 PM

The most volume I've seen for months in CSM and above its old resistance, could be gathering a bit of momentum.

Pretty fair value as a Company at the moment, if they get their act together and realize some decent production/cost structure on their assets.

Could get close to their old highs, they've certainly been lagging behind!.

MalteseBull

18th-October-2006, 01:30 PM

Broadside

18th-October-2006, 01:35 PM

I've been hearing that CSM is a possible takeover target on the hotcopper forums.... don't think there is much meat behind those opinions though..

other than that who ever said it was dead and burried is wrong... broke the 2.20 resistantce last week and heading towards 2.50...

worth looking into..

26th october is their AGM for anyone interested

:2twocents

I actually think there is something to the rumours, the volume and price rise would suggest so. It has been out of favour for a little while and is ripe for the picking.

porkpie324

18th-October-2006, 02:58 PM

CSM has suffered because the CEO (now retired) was far too optimistic about the company's profit forecasts,CSM failed to achieve the CEO forecasts which the market as usual hit the sp hard, so the sp was in a steady decline, about june time there was an increase in volume with an increase in the sp, the sp rose but soon drifted back again and has been in a sideways movement since then. But this week CSM may have shaken off these blues theres been a good sp rise on well above average vol, so CSM I think is a specky buy until the trend is confirmed.porkpie

Broadside

18th-October-2006, 03:03 PM

porkpie324

18th-October-2006, 04:11 PM

there is no doubt in my mind it is being hunted, there is big buying now at $2.40...not just a matter of it being back in favour...this was around $1.80 a week ago
I hope your right I'm sitting on holding from Titan Res, CSM has been off my radar for a while so I might take more of an interest now, posiibly take out a CFD position.porkpie

MalteseBull

18th-October-2006, 05:09 PM

this is one bullish share atm..

wouldn't mind increasing my hold when it goes down again

alankew

18th-October-2006, 05:27 PM

According to IG news feed they have received an approach from an unamed 3rd part.Item is copyrighted so could paste it up but i think there is mantion of the asx newsdesk if thats any help

Ken

18th-October-2006, 06:10 PM

hmm, i am pretty sure i asked the question on this one.

was definitley out of favour at the time.

didn't put up....

patterson's had it as a definite buy....

Ranger

22nd-November-2006, 09:37 AM

Just wondering if anyone is watching CSM at the moment?

It is currently sitting on $1.985, Directors have bought in the last few months and a few analysts are starting to recommend BUY.

noirua

22nd-November-2006, 11:14 AM

Starting to move with all the talk about iron ore. Scrambled on board this morning just after the train left, slightly late.

Freeballinginawetsuit

22nd-November-2006, 12:25 PM

I'm onboard CSM again today also Noiura, . Shown a good support level during this recent correction, indicators are just crossing and its a tad oversold :eek7:.
Should bounce a bit and its still way undervalued IMHO, one of the only ones left that is no wear near May's SP levels.
Management needs to deliver some good output/cost effective and profitable outcomes in their next load of announcements and deliver on CSM's potential. The SP should reflect the aforementioned if this happens and then their is also the 'takeover' possabilities.
CSM are cheap ATM, have good assets and must surely be attractive to the bigger outfits :rolleyes: .

Sultan of Swing

22nd-November-2006, 10:26 PM

Bought a few in March at 2.80ish, the old 'catching a falling knife' trick and watched as they dropped to 1.60. :mad: Bought a bunch more 2 weeks ago.

To me, they're one of the few resource stocks that seem undervalued. I'm cheering for them to have a lot more days like today. :p:

NOTE: Do your own research, I'm just a novice. :cool:

noirua

22nd-November-2006, 10:53 PM

Providing we do not have " Costello " open his mouth too often on his views on commodity prices, then we should see CSM recover quite strongly. I say quite strongly, as CSM may take a while to attack its previous highs as confidence has fallen a lot.

Ranger

7th-December-2006, 01:22 AM

Annoucement out: CSM still in negotiations with a third party regarding possible transaction.

This could be reason for the rise today.

noirua

7th-December-2006, 01:32 AM

Annoucement out: CSM still in negotiations with a third party regarding possible transaction.

This could be reason for the rise today.

The iron ore sector is increasingly in the news of late and CSM appear left behind.

Freeballinginawetsuit

7th-December-2006, 10:09 AM

Nice open with some volume for CSM, unusual for them, they mostly have a slow wag!.

Freeballinginawetsuit

7th-December-2006, 03:56 PM

Strange for CSM today, responding well to sell pressure and maintaining bullish volume, could be something suss up!.

Thought I might add that it couldn't be anything to do with their outstanding profits, they yet again announced that their not realizing output as per forecasts (last announcement), so indeed its strange their performing and indeed on a down market day. :eek7: , not like CSM at all.

Devil_Star

8th-December-2006, 12:17 AM

mmmmining

8th-December-2006, 12:30 AM

The stock price just rallied at the last half hour of trading. it looks like some insiders knows something good is happening. It sounds like another takeover. If there weren't the bad news about the ore downgrade, the sp might have gone further. Can't wait to know what happens!

I still cannot figure it out how can CSM keep secret for so long by tell the whole world that A, I mean A third party is talking to them about a deal without name it? You and I might not know it. How about the insiders, the big firms, fund managers, brokers, friend of the insiders?

Either the board or the management fibericating story, or they failed on their duty to keep us informed. What is wrong to tell us the name? Is there any secrets?

noirua

8th-December-2006, 06:45 AM

Oversold on the UK AIM market as tipsters said, take profits.

noirua

11th-December-2006, 10:56 AM

Now at $2.18 with the chart targets set at $2.50 and $2.80. If CSM reaches these levels it will be time to see if the recovery to over $4 .00 is a possibility.

redandgreen

11th-December-2006, 11:26 AM

I still cannot figure it out how can CSM keep secret for so long by tell the whole world that A, I mean A third party is talking to them about a deal without name it? You and I might not know it. How about the insiders, the big firms, fund managers, brokers, friend of the insiders?

Either the board or the management fibericating story, or they failed on their duty to keep us informed. What is wrong to tell us the name? Is there any secrets?
IGO you have only to compare the SP behaviour of the two companies over the last 2 months ...very revealing.
Conjecture only of course
IGO SP went down in direct proportion to CSM SP going up :2twocents

Freeballinginawetsuit

11th-December-2006, 03:52 PM

CSM needs to close above $2.20 with some more volume and I'll be happy :) , something's in the wind

Devil_Star

11th-December-2006, 04:28 PM

History was just repeated. The momentum was up fiercely at the last 15 mins. But I still dun know what the deal is. I still hold both shares & CFDs on the stock. Hope it will turn out lovely shortly.

redandgreen

13th-December-2006, 10:47 AM

it's the Russians apparently that are interested in CSM according to today's AFR
Expect a bid B4 Xmas .......

noirua

13th-December-2006, 11:47 AM

Moving up steadily this morning and trading at $2.29 a few moments ago. Iron ore is one of the good sectors at the moment and CSM look to have ground to make up, with iron ore drilling results due soon.

Kipp

23rd-December-2006, 08:41 AM

it's the Russians apparently that are interested in CSM according to today's AFR
Expect a bid B4 Xmas .......
Funny that the rumour didnt get the SP moving. Looks like it should find support around $2.00. Must be the only Nickel producer to be down for the year (though to be fair Ni is only a sliver of it's profits). But even if the Russians aren't interested, CSM would have to a be a target right now, imho.

Devil_Star

23rd-December-2006, 01:05 PM

Funny that the rumour didnt get the SP moving. Looks like it should find support around $2.00. Must be the only Nickel producer to be down for the year (though to be fair Ni is only a sliver of it's profits). But even if the Russians aren't interested, CSM would have to a be a target right now, imho.

It is the cheap Mn that seriously offset the gain of a Ni. I'm getting bored at awaiting the disclosure of the deal with the Russian Group.

redandgreen

2nd-February-2007, 06:54 PM

where are those Russians who said that they were coming......
maybe they've decided to leave this dog in the pound..... :rolleyes:

wintermute

4th-February-2007, 03:32 PM

Rumours are just that! rumours!! I don't think that there is any takeover at all, I'm more inclined to think that "discussions" are more likely a JV approach possibly with overseas companies in South Africa or South America, based on info that CSM announced about 10 months ago saying they'd been approached, but couldn't see anything for at least 12 months... again this is only speculation....

1/2 yearly results will be the acid test of whether or not CSM is turning around.

Tony.

redandgreen

6th-February-2007, 10:05 PM

redandgreen

7th-February-2007, 10:57 AM

on second thoughts, in this instance, my money is still backing the rumour... I guess time alone will tell.................

wintermute

7th-February-2007, 12:00 PM

Yeah the rumor resurfaced again yesterday in the SMH, but based on the less than stellar rise today I think it is getting a bit tired, after all it appears to have been this rumor that pulled the price up from around 1.70 last Oct, it is taking an awfully long time for these Russians to decide whether they are going to take over CSM or not ;) Seems to me that anyone wanting to take over CSM would not need to have months of discussions with CSM's management, as of August last year the biggest stakeholder in CSM had less than 6% of the company, IMO if someone wanted to take them over they would just do it!!

Tony.

noirua

7th-February-2007, 01:12 PM

Keep the faith! As these matters, take as long as they take, and remember iron ore is King. I'm patiently holding on.

redandgreen

8th-February-2007, 03:40 PM

it's moving, love to know why :confused:

Kauri

23rd-February-2007, 07:10 PM

it's moving, love to know why :confused:

Cheeky buggers...A takeover based on the SP last October.... offering $2.28 per share.. about 1% premium on todays close.. led by Gilbertson of ex BHP fame.

Part of a Shareholder letter from CSM today...

Subject to the proposal being approved by shareholders, noteholders and the court (and subject to other conditions being satisfied), a new company will be created by way of 3 schemes of arrangement, between Consolidated Minerals and its shareholders, optionholders and noteholders.

The new company will be 60% owned by an investment vehicle of Pallinghurst Resources Fund LP and AMCI and 40% owned by the existing Consolidated Minerals shareholders.

Under the proposal, Consolidated Minerals shareholders will receive an attractive cash and scrip package comprising:

• A$1.38 cash for each Consolidated Minerals share they hold; and

• 2 shares in the new company for every 5 Consolidated Minerals shares they hold.

This values your Consolidated Minerals shares at $2.28 representing a 32.6% premium to the Consolidated Minerals share price of $1.72 (being the price prior to the takeover speculation in October 2006).

noirua

23rd-February-2007, 09:25 PM

Cheeky buggers...A takeover based on the SP last October.... offering $2.28 per share.. about 1% premium on todays close.. led by Gilbertson of ex BHP fame.

This is going to take a bit of looking at, as the added value of a strong cash partner, sailing in, is evaluated. $2.28 looks miserable and a price nearer $2.70 seems fairer for a 60% interest.

wintermute

23rd-February-2007, 11:45 PM

The fact that managment knew that they were turning around profit wise makes the $1.72 sp as the base look like a joke... the announcement today almost had an F You feel to it (with reference to the sp being up because of rumours) whilst this is I think largely true, I didn't buy based on rumour, I bought based on evidence in the quarterly reports of a turnaround starting!! Could be interesting to see how shareholders react, when asked to vote!

Tony.

hubisan

24th-February-2007, 12:11 PM

I can't believe that Consmin board recommends to shareholders
1/ to accept to become minority holders of larger controlling interests !!
2/ to sell at a price in the lowest range of several years of quotation
3/ to ignore the future value of nickel operations.

I will vote NO and I recommend that shareholders vote NO to this deal.

Hubisan

redandgreen

24th-February-2007, 01:48 PM

Kauri

24th-February-2007, 06:45 PM

They pick up 60% of CSM on a valuation based on the SP 4 months back...
What do they bring to the table.... mmmm..Gilbertson of course..
Best of luck to CSM, by the way there is already a $5 million break fee penalty!!!

SMH Dec 17 2003
Brian Gilbertson, the keen cyclist and former BHP Billion chief, has marked his return to public company life by selling £3.6 million worth of shares he was given to chair Indian copper concern Vedanta the day it listed.

At this early stage, the South African's timing could not have been better. While Vedanta shares have sunk to £3.58 since joining the ranks of the London Stock Exchange last week, Mr Gilbertson managed to sell 903,961 shares at the £3.90 issue price.

The Age..May 23 2003
The rash of multimillion-dollar payouts to executives came into sharp focus yesterday when BHP Billiton finally settled on a departure package for former chief executive Brian Gilbertson.

South African-born Mr Gilbertson, 59, will receive about $12.4 million in payments and shares related directly to six months as chief executive, plus a pension for life of $1.5 million a year for 32 years of service with the group and its predecessors.

The non-smoking and bike-riding Mr Gilbertson could reasonably expect to live to the age of 76. In that case, the "headline" figure of his package is about $38 million (not discounted for inflation). Should he die before his wife, she would receive 75 per cent of his annual pension.

hubisan

24th-February-2007, 09:15 PM

Everything signals this offer as an inacceptable manipulation at undervalued price

the past track of the newcomers from South Africa connection (see post bove)
the price
the purchase of 60%
the threat of 5 M$ charge is our manipulation to get small shareholders afraid

The recommandation of this deal by Rod Baxter is not tolerable.
If he agrees that shareholder should giveup to such a bad deal, his legacy at consmin is over. Shareholders should present a resolution to fire him.
And then we would see who is the boss at consmin.

I am a Fench investor.
Can somebody tell me

1/ if there are other message boards with large audience in Australia
2/ what is the controlling situation at consmin exactly right now

I will also look at it but any help welcome

Hubisan

hubisan

24th-February-2007, 09:18 PM

Oups ther is a type error in my post above: Please read :
"the threat of 5 M$ charge is a manipulation to get small shareholders afraid."

Hubisan

Rimtalay

1st-March-2007, 08:34 AM

A lot of opposition has already started against the Consolidated Minerals takeover by Pallinghurst Resources.
If you check this website http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover.htm
you will to see the Consolidated Minerals takeover Vote NO website.
If you tell all other sharetraders to visit this site and send their feedback it will be a way of standing up for the rights of shareholders and also to support the people who set up this website.
Lots of interesting info, and links to Asian metals trading websites
Cheers :banghead:

noirua

1st-March-2007, 10:57 AM

My view seems to run contrary to others on this proposed tie up of Pallinghurst resources, AMCI and Consolidated Minerals.

Pallinghurst is headed up by Mr Brian Gilbertson, a former CEO of BHP Billiton and I understand and agree to the favourable arguments put forward.

I will accept the offer and consider buying shares in the new set-up.

Rimtalay

1st-March-2007, 07:20 PM

I note from the Consolidated Minerals takeover website
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover.htm they are not against having Mr Brian Gilbertson onboard, they just say the price of $2.28 is unacceptable. When you read that they have $150 million stake in other companies, $10 billion of nickel in the ground, $3 billion of manganese and $470 million in Chrome Ore then the $2.28/share offer is for idiots, who don't know any better. The website is just trying to make people aware and making the CEO and Board more accountable. For example they said "in the Company's Half Year Results June 06,
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_incorrect_statements.htm
"The Company believes that through providing forecasts of production and costs, along with regular reporting on commodity prices attained by the business, analysts and investors will be better positioned to have an informed view of the profit outlook." In fact the Company has made no statement (to my knowledge) referring to prices attained by the Company during the past six months."

Also did you see on the website today that India has introduced a US$44 tax/ton on chrome ore from 1st April
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_chromite.htm

From the www.miningnews.net today 1st March 07
Kiernan added that Gilbertson could bring some strong direction to the company, which he said had moved sideways since his departure.

"To be quite brutal, the new management and the board have basically done nothing with ConsMin and those assets. They've basically just sat on the nest and warmed the eggs. And in some areas they've allowed the eggs to get cracked," Kiernan said.

I agree with the website $2/share and the 2 for 5 share offer. And what about dividends for the next half year , I bet with US$20/lb nickel they'll be making money, shouldn't existing shareholders get that. Not Gilbertson get 60% of the money. Don't be a fool!
They said they haven't any YES votes yet, so if you want to be the lone YES voter then I suggest you vote.
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_feedback.htm

Rimtalay

2nd-March-2007, 01:54 PM

This chrome ore market is about to really hot up. Consolidated Minerals is the only producer in Australia producing 2 1/2% of the worlds supply. With the announcement from India yesterday about the US$44/ton tax and now from South Africa the worlds largest supplier of Chrome ore comes this announcement from South Africa. My guess this going to add a minimum of US$44/ton to the price in China within days. But potentially far more due to the South African announcement. Chrome ore is already up to US$245/ton, if it goes to US$300/ton ( which it will), CSM will be making $60million/pa. on current production and I'm talking PROFIT. Consolidated Minerals is the only producer in Australia and is about to get a huge boost.

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=102934

SA to ban raw chromite exports - Deputy President

South Africa's Department of Minerals and Energy planned to gazette new legislation preventing South African chrome miners from exporting unbeneficiated chrome ore, deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said on Thursday.

The proposed law would stipulate ferrochrome as the least-beneficiated level at which the material could be exported, she said, referring specifically to a chrome producer that had been exporting raw chromite, to the detriment of local industry.

Speaking at the launch of the Xstrata-Merafe Lion ferrochrome smelter, Mlambo-Ngcuka said that government had taken into account an appeal from Xstrata that the export of unbeneficiated chromite be curbed, referring specifically to Kermas, which bought Samancor Chrome from BHP Billiton and Anglo American last year.

Kermas had admitted to exporting the some raw material to China, but later halted the practice.

It also dismissed suggestions that it was undermining the South African industry’s prospects by exporting chrome ore to China.

However, while this was happening, South Africa was using only 77% of its available converting capacity, Xstrata Alloys MD Chrome Deon Dreyer said last year.

In the same breath, Mlambo-Ngcuka praised Xstrata and Merafe for setting a trend of increasing beneficiation levels in South Africa, thereby supporting government's drive to create jobs and boost the local economy.

She said that South Africa was a dominant player in chrome, having 72% of the world's known chrome reserves, and is the number one producer of the world's ferroalloys, producing 41% of the material.

Beneficiated chrome was ten times more valuable than unbeneficiated chrome, and South Africa was losing that value-add benefits as well as employment opportunities, through the unbridled export of raw chromite ore, Dreyer said at the time.

Merafe CEO Steve Phiri told Mining Weekly Online on Thursday that Xstrata's South African operations had lost 16% of its market share because of chromite exports to China.

He said that Merafe “could not be more excited” about the announcement.

South Africa's raw chromite exports to China in 2005 were 760 000 t.

However, in 2006, this figure increased to a million tons, which Phiri said was bound to increase still further if something was not done to curb it.

He pointed out that the Indian Minister of Finance had indicated in his budget speech this year that the country would introduce a levy of $45 a ton of chromite exported, which would make it unattractive for Indian producers to export chromite, which mainly goes to China.

This meant that resources-hungry China would be looking increasingly to South Africa for chromite.

The Xstrata-Merafe JV had taken a decision not to export raw chromite, as the move would be in direct conflict with South Africa's beneficiation drive and would prevent growth in the country's ferrochrome industry.

Referring to the Deputy President's remarks on Thursday, he said he was glad to see this was now a “definite no-go area”.

“Our mineral resources belong to all the people of South Africa and, by exporting raw chromite, we are destroying jobs,” Phiri said.

Rimtalay

4th-March-2007, 09:23 AM

All CSM shareholders, there is a website where we can show our disgust with the CSM management. We need to speak up and be heard. $2.28/share is a rip off. If we all tell the Management the offer is unacceptable you can be sure they'll up the offer. If not bad luck, Gilbertson can go somewhere else and the Management can get back to doing what they are paid for.
Register your comments at http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover.htm
:banghead:

noirua

4th-March-2007, 09:47 AM

Watch the CSM share price to see if there is much hope of a counterbid. In the current market and the problems that CSM have to overcome, "The Price is Right" as Bruce Forsythe would say.

noirua

4th-March-2007, 11:22 AM

I should add that Consolidated Minerals in the UK (CNM) has every poster against the offer. It does seem that this offer is just a passing shot over the boughs and may well be increased by Gilbertson and Co.

Rimtalay

4th-March-2007, 12:29 PM

All CSM shareholders should email the Managing Director Mr Rod Baxter and tell him what they think (Politely) rbaxter@consminerals.com.au
This the best way he'll get the message that we all want more money, minimum $2/share plus 2 for 5 share option.
Tell him today, :banghead: tomorrow :banghead: and the day after, he'll get sick of it. :banghead:

Rimtalay

5th-March-2007, 09:07 AM

GILBERTSON LOOKS AT MANGANESE
PERTH's Consolidated Minerals is believed to be already casting an eye over assets which have been linked previously to former BHP Billiton chief executive Brian Gilbertson and his close business associates.

Mr Gilbertson last month announced his return to the Australian market through a partial private equity tilt at ConsMin aiming to transform it into a diversified miner on the scale of Oxiana, or even Xstrata, through a series of acquisitions.

Former ConsMin managing director Michael Kiernan, who left the company last year, told the Herald some of his former employees had informed him Mr Gilbertson was very keen on expanding the miner's manganese business.

Mr Gilbertson and his business associates such as London investment banker Roddie Fleming and Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg have made several moves in the South African manganese sector in the last few years.

Through his holding company Renova, Mr Vekselberg, the chairman of Russian aluminium producer Sual, obtained 49 per cent of the Kalahari manganese project. Mr Fleming originally held part of that stake but is believed to have sold out. The majority is owned by a black economic empowerment partner.

The Kalahari project is in the same region as Samancor Manganese, which is 60 per cent owned by BHP Billiton and 40 per cent by Anglo American. BHP picked up the project through its merger with Billiton, which was headed by Mr Gilbertson. Mr Vekselberg reportedly attempted to buy Anglo's stake in Samancor in 2005 but was knocked back.

Mr Gilbertson last month told Australian media Mr Vekselberg "might" be an investor in ConsMin via his private equity group and added he held an interest in manganese assets in South Africa.

And Mr Kiernan noted Mr Gilbertson and the proposed new ConsMin strategy head, Arne Frandsen, had a history of involvement with black economic empowerment companies which made a deal with one another possible.

Mr Kiernan added Mr Gilbertson might look at alloy and smelting businesses to make the company a fully integrated supplier and more effective competitor against its larger manganese rivals. Other options included expanding ConsMin's WA nickel business through the purchase of Independence Group, Mincor or Sally Malay. "Brian is a great consolidator," Mr Kiernan said.

Some other assets which have previously been linked to Mr Gilbertson have recently resurfaced. Mr Fleming, the nephew of deceased James Bond author Ian Fleming and the head of UK investment bank Fleming Family and Partners, is looking to float his family's Mozambique tantulum assets in London. The same assets were supposed to be folded into Sual in 2003 but the deal fell over.

However, John Meyer, an analyst with Numis Securities in London, said: "The Flemings are always looking to sell overvalued assets into the market."

Rimtalay

6th-March-2007, 08:54 AM

All CSM shareholders - the vote NO is hotting up. Email the Managing Director Mr Rod Baxter and tell him what you think. rbaxter@consminerals.com.au
Check on the website Consolidated Minerals takeover Vote No
Post your info, help to make a difference. Vote NO :banghead:

noirua

6th-March-2007, 11:47 AM

Investor Roadshow Presentation: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070305/pdf/3119jythd85bz9.pdf

noirua

6th-March-2007, 11:53 AM

I've added to my holding in CSM. The cash part of the bid will be an excellent back drop if markets slide further. Always the chance of an increased offer, even though this partnership looks good and should see the company accellerate from troubled waters.

Rimtalay

6th-March-2007, 05:31 PM

I wouldn't count on the deal as it stands getting passed. There is a lot of opposition to the takeover, and the Management hold very few shares, I guess that's why they recommend the deal, they have nothing to lose. Though they don't realise it yet they may even get ousted as many shareholders are already talking about giving them the sack. But who knows they may come to their senses and offer shareholders a decent price. You'll be able to thank us, if that's the case. :banghead:

Rimtalay

6th-March-2007, 10:19 PM

CHROME ORE MARKET TO HOT UP
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_updates.htm :banghead:

Chromium Price Set To Soar
FN Arena News - March 06 2007

By Greg Peel
One of the side effects of the great Chinese commodity consumption surge is that we've all become a little bit more familiar with the periodic table. Once familiar metals and minerals began to leap in price, wily investors were quickly out looking for those lesser-known elements that might be next on the list.
You won't read an awful lot about chromite – the ore from which we derive chromium coating for steel – despite the everyday familiarity of chrome. As it is not used a lot in basic construction, it boasts nowhere near the popularity of that other leading steel coating – nickel. Chrome surfaces are actually manufactured by placing a microfine coating of chromium over a nickel layer.
But chromium is nevertheless yet another element coveted by the Chinese in their economic surge, and now the subject of a lot of consternation from two of the world's major sources of chromite.
South Africa has 72% of the world's known chrome reserves, and is the world's number one producer of ferroalloys (of which ferrochromium is one) producing 41%. Beneficiated (processed) chrome is about ten times more valuable than unbeneficiated chrome, so there is a significant incentive to keep control of the beneficiation process when you own all the chromite. Apart from the price difference, the smelting industry is a good employer and that's a problem South Africa constantly faces.
Nevertheless, a company by the name of Kermas has upset the "local" chrome industry by directly exporting raw chromite to China and supposedly undermining the value of the industry in South Africa. Kermas bought Semancor Chrome last year from BHP Billiton (BHP) and Anglo American. Most peeved was Xstrata-Merafe which has lost 16% of its chromium market share due to direct exports.
In 2005, raw chromite exports to China from South Africa totalled 760kt. In 2006 this figure reached over a million tons and the trend has only been up.
So in response, the government is planning legislation to ban the export of raw chromite.
This move follows similar measures by India, another major chromite source, which is planning a US$45/t levy on the export of raw chromite for the same reasons. Most of India's chromite exports go to China.
As the developing world catches up the mature economies, the adjustments are often painful (and South Africa is counted amongst the developing nations, despite its mineral wealth). Having been raped and pillaged for generations, these countries are carefully balancing social costs against the free market, despite such moves being against the tide of globalisation. India, for example, has just clamped down on a newly opened futures exchange in the belief that speculation is pushing up prices.
While Xstrata-Merafe may be a major beneficiary of the South African initiative, CEO Steve Phiri told Mining Weekly Online that "our mineral resources belong to all the people of South Africa and by exporting raw chromite we are destroying jobs".
How long developing nations can hold out before the Chinese simply come in and offer huge incentives, as they have done throughout a lot of Africa recently, is a case in point. But what is no doubt a given is that the price of chromium will be forced up in the meantime.
Australian investors looking for exposure to chromite might care to take a look at Consolidated Minerals (CSM).

Rimtalay

6th-March-2007, 10:44 PM

As one shareholder said on the http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_opposition.htm
"I reckon David Hicks is getting a better deal than ConsMin shareholders"
:banghead:

Rimtalay

10th-March-2007, 10:39 AM

A very different company

Pallinghurst Resources will buy 60% of CSM from existing shareholders. Pallinghurst is a private equity resource investor led by Brian Gilbertson of Billiton fame. The bid is $6.40 cash and two shares in the new CSM for every five shares, equivalent to $2.28 a share. The new company will be 60% Pallinghurst and 40% current shareholders. It's effectively a partial takeover, well timed and on the cheap. The deal is via scheme of arrangement. Shareholder, noteholder, foreign investment review board and court approval is needed. Directors, including the MD and Chairman, keep their jobs and unanimously support the offer. Gilbertson as well as Hans Mende and Arne Frandsen of AMCI join the board.

Judging by the Sydney lunch this week, some brokers and analysts are unhappy. The premium is modest, 14% on the six month average pre-speculation price. While some are disappointed with the price, owning 40% of new CSM will share upside. Angst is linked to disappointment with previous management, falling manganese prices and the recent poor share price performance. South African management in what is "Australia's next mid tier champion" irks some. Those issues will fade after the first one or two deals. Expect the first acquisitions to be high quality and well considered. Management is determined to escape legacy issues and re-establish credibility.

The plan is to recreate the Billiton and Xstrata experience. Aggressive growth through acquisitions backed by a supportive major investor. For Xstrata it was Glencore. CSM will have Pallinghurst. Pallinghurst has US$1bn and is backed by successful private coal company AMCI. CSM's acquisitions have been a highlight. The company is already looking at potential targets. Management is finally excited after a tough year. With $320m in the game, Pallinghurst should be sufficiently motivated.

For CSM all hinges on successful deal making. We acknowledge control has potentially passed to Pallinghurst with a small premium and that acquisition growth is more difficult in a falling commodity environment and boomy resource market conditions. That said, we see more upside than down. This may be the start of multi year growth. Operations have stabilised and key markets are improving. We upgrade from Hold to Speculative Buy. CSM can be comfortably bought up to the bid price of $2.28 and potentially beyond. Our valuation rises 16% to $2.50 after investment gains, profit upgrades and adding a 25c premium for exploration, development and acquisition potential. Long term assumptions are unchanged. Asset quality reservations are likely be overshadowed by acquisitions.

1H07 NPAT was double our forecast, mainly due to creditable cost control. Sales revenue rose 8% to $119.2m compared to 2H06 with stronger manganese and nickel contributions. Manganese production was up 8%, nickel steady and chromite down 4%. Net operating cashflow more than doubled to $10.8m and the dividend was reinstated. We upgrade our adjusted FY07 NPAT forecast by 27% to $35.0m. Assumptions for 2H07 include a US$2.38/dmtu manganese price and US$15.25/lb nickel. Similarly, FY08 increases 6% to $74.7m based on US$2.50/dmtu manganese and US$11.00/lb nickel.

1H07 RESULT
1H06
2H06
1H07
%CHG*
%CHG^

Sales Revenue ($m)
103.8
110.1
119.2
+14.9
+8.3

EBITDA ($m)
21.3
21.9
30.5
+43.1
+39.5

EBIT ($m)
7.6
12.4
17.1
+123.7
+38.1

Pre-tax Profit ($m)
4.3
10.3
12.6
+191.0
+22.2

Adjusted NPAT ($m)
3.2
12.8
8.3
+162.3
-35.1

Headline NPAT ($m)
3.2
-9.7
10.2
+222.2
n/a

Adjusted EPS (cps)
1.4
5.7
3.7
+153.9
-36.0

Net Op. CF ($m)
4.8
4.2
10.8
+124.1
+154.5

DPS (c)
3.0
0.0
1.75
-41.7
n/a

Net Debt ($m)
57.4
94.2
105.4
+83.7
+11.9

EBITDA Margin (%)
20.5%
19.9%
25.6%
+24.6
+28.8

Rimtalay

10th-March-2007, 10:44 AM

10th March 07 Vote NO website http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_updates.htm

We're not the only ones who think that this takeover of Consolidated Minerals by Pallinghurst Resources STINKS.

“investor led by Brian Gilbertson of Billiton fame. The bid is $6.40 cash and two shares in the new CSM for every five shares, equivalent to $2.28 a share. The new company will be 60% Pallinghurst and 40% current shareholders. It’s effectively a partial takeover, well timed and on the cheap. “
“Judging by the Sydney lunch this week, some brokers and analysts are unhappy. The premium is modest, 14% on the six month average pre-speculation price. While some are disappointed with the price, owning 40% of newCSM will share upside. Angst is linked to disappointment with previous management, falling manganese prices and the recent poor share price performance. South African management in what is “Australia’s next mid tier champion” irks some. Those issues will fade after the first one or two deals. Expect the first acquisitions to be high quality and well considered. Management is determined to escape legacy issues and re-establish credibility.”

This is from Huntley's your weekly money. Pity they can't get their facts right. What it says in my letter from Consolidated Minerals is " an attractive cash and script package comprising
A $1.38 cash for each Consolidated Minerals share they hold. and
2 shares in the new company for every 5 Consolidated Minerals shares they hold."
That's what my letter says, if it said $6.40/ share, we'd all say YES PLEASE.( maybe it's just some fancy way that Huntley's do their arithmetic, but I've calculated it every way, up, down and inside out but I can't get $6.40, or do they mean $1.38X5 = $6.90) (EVEN WORSE THAN THE OFFER -NO THANK YOU)
Sounds like some brokers and analysts are unhappy, what about all us shareholders, we aren't exactly jumping for joy. Huntley's talk about upside, what 40% share in the upside, what upside, we still have the same chickens in the chook house. Maybe the rooster (Gilbertson) will be crowing at 4am to get those lazy chooks off the eggs ( before they crack them even more) and out of the warm henhouse to scratch for some more scraps.
I reckon better to put a bomb under their butts and blow them out of the chook house permanently. Maybe that is what is needed, obviously the chooks don't give a damn about all us baby chicks !!!

noirua

10th-March-2007, 10:50 AM

Hi, The new company will be owned just 40% by todays CSM shareholders. You are forgetting we get A$1.38 cash as well and anyone who likes the new set-up can buy more shares with their money.

Yes, you can argue for more cash, fair enough, but, it is important not to scupper the deal.

Rimtalay

10th-March-2007, 02:09 PM

Scuttle the deal, you bet !!! That is the intention if shareholders don't get a fair deal, don't listen to the hype. Remember shareholders will only own 40%, there is no way we can vote down an deal etc after the takeover takes place. There is more behind this deal than most people realise.
zen_machine at HotCopper has done some investigation , I will post some of his info, I'm sure he won't mind, as he is in the Vote NO camp

"Gilbertson says he will build up the company.
But this not something he has done in the past.
It is all smoke and mirrors and means of getting the company cheap.

Just have a look this guy.... Arne Frandsen.
Arne Frandsen is going to be the director of strategy in the new CSM.

Gilbertson was a non-executive director in a black empowerment company called Incwala Resources which he helped to put together.
His side kick at the time was Arne Frandsen who was intalled as the executive director of the company.

Arne Frandsen promised to raise funds and expand the company.

BUT IN THE END NOTHING EVENTUATED!!!

Checkout this article
V
V
V

Frandsen quits Incwala Resources
David McKay & Allan Seccombe
Posted: Wed, 07 Jun 2006
[miningmx.com] -- INCWALA Resources CEO, Arne Frandsen, has resigned less than a year after taking up the position, an announcement that will be a blow to the empowerment outfit.

In an interview with Miningmx, Frandsen said he always planned to spend between one to two or three years at the helm of Incwala Resources. It was now logical to make way for a black CEO, he said.

"As a prominent BEE company, it is prudent that it is led by a historically disadvantaged South African," said Frandsen, who is a Denmark national. However, in terms of his contract with Incwala, he could be asked to serve a six month notice period. "That is entirely up for the board to decide," he said commenting on whether he would retain his post until the year-end.

Earlier in the day, Incwala issued a terse two line statement confirming Frandsen's retirement, and promising more details later.

Tasked with building the empowerment firm's business, Frandsen took Incwala Resources into a memorandum of understanding with Mvelaphanda Holdings in December 2005 to buy its 22% stake in Mvelaphanda Resources (Mvela Resources).

However, the proposed transaction fell through about four months later after an independent committee, established by Mvela Resources, imposed a condition of first right of refusal on new projects, a term Incwala couldn't accept.

It's thought that deputy chairperson Zanele Mavuso Mbatha may take over the CEO position on an interim basis.

Black investors own 52.8% of Incwala and Lonmin and the Industrial Development Corporation both each 23.6%. Incwala owns 18% of Lonplats, the world’s third largest primary platinum producer.

Frandsen is a banker and was appointed to Incwala having worked with Incwala's former chairman, Brian Gilbertson. It's thought that the failure to implement the Mvela Resources deal and the resignation of Gilbertson as chairman of Incwala helped isolate Frandsen. Gilbertson is a non-executive director of Incwala.

Raised expectations about consummating deals also placed extra pressure on Frandsen who was stylised in one media article as the 'Danish Viking'.

“There’s space for a real substantial fourth player in South Africa,” Frandsen said of Incwala in an interview with Miningmx dated July 20.

"It was as much a surprise to us as anyone," said James Wellsted, investor relations manager for Mvela Resources.

"What did he deliver? That was the problem," said another source. "He spoke too liberally about doing a deal a quarter and it just didn't happen," the source said.
Free news alerts: click here to subscribeSaid Frandsen: "I don't measure my success on how much of the company's money I spent. At the top of the commodity cycle, equities we want to buy are very expensive. Sometimes there's more value in not doing deals."

Frandsen helped broker SA Breweries when it bought US brewer Miller, the listing of Ashanti Goldfields in New York and the creation of Incwala itself, the latter while client CEO at JP Morgan (Europe).

"Incwala started as a company worth $400m and now it's worth in excess of $1bn," said Frandsen. "That's partly due to the platinum price but it's wholly prudent that I go now."

continue next post

Rimtalay

10th-March-2007, 02:10 PM

Continued
"Here is another shady character who seems to be in cahoots with Gilbertson.

Victor Vekselberg.

Vekselberg owns Sual. Sual has just combined with RUSAL to produce the biggest alminium producer in the world.
He also own Renova. Renova seems to a company in which Vekselberg uses to acquire raw materials like manganese which are used to produce aluminium.

In the SMH article Vekselberg and Renova may invest in CSM via Pallinghurst.

I would say this is what will happen.

PALLINGHURST WILL SELL csm'S MANGANESE BUSINESS TO RENOVA AND MAKE A NICE TIDY PROFIT FROM THE DEAL.

Just wait and see.

In the meantime just check out this article about Vekselberg and the Renova group.

Tell me if you don't smell something fishy.
v
v
v
v

Don't count your roubles

Nic Dawes, Stefaans Brümmer and Vicki Robinson

08 September 2006 07:56

Russian President Vladimir Putin was in South Africa this week for his first official visit with President Thabo Mbeki. (Photograph: David Harrison)
The R7,2-billion in foreign direct investment promised by the Russian investment group Renova may not be quite what it seems, documents detailing the financial structure of the deal suggest.

The most prominent among the business people accompanying Russian President Vladimir Putin on his first visit to South Africa was Renova chairperson Victor Vekselberg, Russia’s third-richest man.

Putin on Tuesday described Renova’s plans to build a ferrochrome smelter at Coega, and to link it to manganese mines in the Kalahari, as a $1-billion (R7,2-billion) investment in South Africa. On Wednesday, Vekselberg told journalists that investment in the smelter and mining operations would reach $1-billion over five years.

But documents and corroborating information obtained by the Mail & Guardian suggest that the total investment could be less than half that, and much of the money may come from local sources.

According to a 2004 Renova document obtained by the M&G, the Russian company estimated the total project cost to be between $300- and $400-million. Renova’s website gives the same figure.

The document envisaged that only a part of this would be Renova’s own money, saying: “Once a bankable feasibility study shall have been prepared, Renova shall undertake to arrange financing for subsequent stages of implementation … using all available opportunities and connections with major financing companies.”

In a document submitted to government last year, Renova committed itself to providing up to $50-million (R350-million) of project costs — again, until a “bankable feasibilty study” is completed. Chief among these initial costs is an estimated R276-million in prospecting expenses. This document is silent on the smelter.

The only mention of a $1-billion figure is in the 2004 document. It says that the “estimated … market value” would be $500-million to $1-billion. This is a measure, not of the investment needed to get the project up and running, but of its value once that has been achieved.

It appears that a locally based consulting firm, Bateman, may be doing much of the fundraising legwork. According to the Russia Journal, which has published a series of articles questioning the plausibility of Renova’s investment promises, Bateman has confirmed in a statement that it is helping Renova to raise the funds. “Cooperation with Bateman on this aspect will allow Renova to exploit financing opportunities for joint projects, including ‘Manganese of Kalahari’,” the company said.

Last November Bateman confirmed the agreement with Renova: “As Bateman is not only a process engineering company, but also experienced in structuring financing packages for global projects of all sizes, the [memorandum of understanding] will allow Renova to exploit financing opportunities for joint projects.”

In short, there is no guarantee that more than $50-million will flow from Russia into South Africa. The balance of the required investment, which could be anywhere between $350-million and $950-million, would have to come from local and international financial institutions, or a stock market listing.

How that would affect the 51% BEE shareholding in United Manganese of Kalahari, the company through which Renova participates in the manganese project, is not clear. But it would almost certainly dilute it.

According to Business Day Vekselberg and Russian Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev also hinted that Renova subsidiary Sual, headed by South African Brian Gilbertson, and rival firm Rusal were interested in the stalled $2,7-billion aluminium smelter project at Coega.

The two firms are currently the subject of intense speculation over a possible merger, which, according to Russia watchers, may or may not be in the works, and may or may not have Kremlin approval. The smelter, seen as the anchor tenant for the Coega Industrial Development Zone, has been on hold for several years. Pechiney, the company originally expected to build it, dithered over a final decision and it has since been taken over by Alcan.

Vekselberg, who serves on President Thabo Mbeki’s international investment council, is among the Russian oligarchs who have managed to stay on the right side of the Kremlin. Members of the Russian media travelling with Putin pointed out that unlike other business leaders in the delegation, who were greeted with a perfunctory nod, he was granted a brief informal chat with the Russian leader and Mbeki.

Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Putin told journalists that trade and investment between Russia and South Africa — currently a miniscule R1-billion per year — had lagged behind the closeness of political ties between the two countries.

Certainly it was political business, from Coega to nuclear collaboration, that was at the forefront of Putin’s visit.

South Africa has agreed to source fuel for the Koeberg reactor from Russia until 2010. Hitherto, it has come from France. Further nuclear cooperation is also on the cards as Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin seeks to accelerate development in the local nuclear industry.

Public enterprises spokesperson Gaynor Kast said no alternative to the Alcan plant was currently being considered. “Renova are talking about manganese smelters,” she said.

Continued next post

Rimtalay

10th-March-2007, 02:14 PM

contnued
"lets look at CSM's saleable assets.

It has a profitable chromite mine.
It has a profitable manganese business.
It has a profitable nickle business.

It also has 32% Jabiru and the promising Jaguar project.

Pallinghurst is a private equity company Ok.

So how do these companies work?

well for one thing they look for diversified companies that have valuable assets that are undervalued by the company.

They then in theory build up the assets and sell em off.
OK
Sometimes however they don't build up the assets at all, they just sell em off.

Now what do think Gilbertson will do?

Gilbertson is saying he will add value to these businesses. In particular he is talking about doing deals and taking over managanese assets in South Africia.
He and Baxter are making a big thing of this at the moment.
He is saying sell me your company cheap and I will make it worth a fortune.

BUT WILL HE?????????????????????

Will he add value to the company?

You realise, if we give him our company he will get a 60% controlling stake which means he can do what he likes with the company.

He can completely disregard the needs of shareholders, if he wants to.

My question is this........

HOW DO WE KNOW, GILBERTSON WILL DO NOTHING TO GROW THE COMPANY AND JUST SELL IT OFF?????

the big question then is will Gilbertson add value to CSM businesses?

He says Arne Frandsen is some sort of great strategist who will acquire companies left right and center.

Well the fact is, his experience at Incwala Resources indicates he won't.

Baxter says Victor Vekselberg will invest money into expanding the company.

Well that is not true.

His experience in South Africia indicates that he is not interested in putting money into businesses and growing them.
Just acquiring them and taking what he can get out of them.

This is asset stripping operation just wait and see.

Unless Gilbertsen increases his takeover offer say to $2 and 2 for five shares, just tell him to forget it.

VOTE "NO" TO THE TAKEOVER. "

Good to see some shareholders who can see through this deal - VOTE NO

Rimtalay

11th-March-2007, 02:28 PM

http://www.smh.com.au/news/cbd/rex-pays-off-for-expollie/2007/03/05/1172943357854.html

Gilbo accused

Brian Gilbertson might not have everything his own way in his private equity backed tilt at Perth's Consolidated Minerals.

Having run foul of everyone in recent years from Russian oligarchs to being ousted by blue-blood chairmen, this time the former BHP Billiton boss faces a shareholder revolt from the smaller end of town.
A website called "Consolidated Minerals takeover VOTE NO" run by small individual shareholders has sprung up, encouraging shareholders to let the company know what it thinks of Gilbo's offer.
"Vote No - as shareholders of Consolidated Minerals we are being ripped off and treated as fools," the website says.
"Yes, it would be good to have Brian Gilbertson's expertise on board as a shareholder but … he is stealing the company from us. The only way for us to get fair treatment is to tell them. Vote no!"
They don't have dissent like that in Russia. :D :D :D

kerosam

12th-March-2007, 08:26 PM

for the chartist (and i am definitely not), judging from the ASX's graph, looks like its been on a upward trend for a while. and been observing that it is moving north slowly...

Rimtalay

13th-March-2007, 06:57 PM

The post earlier from zen_machine on ( www.******************) is right on the mark, read this story from www.minesite.com, Gilbo and his friend Victor with the SA manganese

MINESITE
March 12, 2007

Consolidated Minerals Confuses Its Own London Broker

By Our Man In Oz

Jump aboard the Gilbertson Express, or stand aside until the speed, direction and ability of the crew can be better tested. That’s the question confronting shareholders in Consolidated Minerals, a medium-sized Australian producer of manganese, chromite and nickel which has a strong London-following but which has become the latest tool of the multi-talented South African businessman, Brian Gilbertson. The announcement this morning that Numis Securities has decided to step aside as London broker to the company with immediate effect says a lot about the uncertainties being expressed by investors about this deal which seems to be more about Mr Gilbertson trying to put value into a South African manganese project for a Russian friend of his than coming up with a value adding deal for Consolidated Minerals. Numis Securities has long been involved with Consolidated Minerals and would have thought hard before making such a move. The directors of the company say they are talking to a possible replacement, but there are unlikely to be many eminent brokers in the queue.

Brian Gilbertson
If the people promoting the deal deliver on their promises ConsMin is set for a new life as a business with the potential to rival bigger miners. The copper and gold miner Oxiana is occasionally being whispered in the same breath as ConsMin, as is the even bigger Xstrata. But, while the potential seems to be there for a period of growth there are obviously nagging doubts about the way the deal is being packaged, and whether South Africa is really such a terrific place to commit part of your capital. As far as Minesite is concerned it comes quite high on the political risk list.

Nowhere are these doubts easier to measure than on the Australian Stock Exchange. Since Gilbertson, a man who once ran Billiton, then BHP Billiton, then the Indian miner, Vedanta, and now the Russian aluminium producer, Sual, launched his complex plan to restructure ConsMin the share price of the Australian stock has barely moved. ConsMin directors, who are supporting the deal, say it values each share in their company at A$2.28. But, since the day the scheme of arrangement was first aired, February 23, ConsMin has “rushed” all the way from A$2.20, up to A$2.44, and then back down to A$2.30 – scarcely a ringing endorsement by the market. And roughly the same performance has been seen in London sp perhaps the Gilbertson magic is wearing a bit thin.

A series of problems are confronting everyone involved. The deal seems to be (a) unnecessarily complicated, (b) appears to offer minimal financial incentive to accept, and (c) involves the injection of a smart new management team which has great ambition, but is yet to reveal precisely what it is it proposes to do with ConsMin. And then there is Gilbertson himself, a man of undoubted talent, but who rarely seems to stay in the one place for very long.

What’s happened so far is that ConsMin suffered a “man overboard” problem less than two years ago when it’s charismatic chief executive, Michael Kiernan, fell out with some young fund managers and went off to build a gold business. The people left in Kiernan’s wake have not inspired investors, and ConsMin, from being a market favourite, has limped into relative obscurity despite having some modestly attractive assets. Meanwhile, somewhere in Moscow, London, or Johannesburg, a plan was hatched to give ConsMin a shot in the arm, led by Gilbertson who formed a private equity business called Pallinghurst Resources.

The proposal is to create a new business which will be 60 per cent owned by Pallinghurst and its associate, the U.S. coal miner, AMCI, and 40 per cent by existing ConsMin shareholders. ConsMin chairman, and former BHP executive, Dick Carter, said in a letter to shareholders that ConsMin shareholders would “receive an attractive cash offer and scrip package” comprising A$1.38 cash for each ConsMin share and two shares in the new company for every ConsMin share they currently hold. Carter went on: “This values your Consolidated Minerals shares at A$2.28, representing a 32.6 per cent premium to the ConsMin share price of A$1.72 (being the price prior to the takeover speculation in October, 2006”.

It is at this point that the eyes of outside observers start to glaze over somewhat. Comparing a bid this year with a share price last year is a bit of a stretch, especially as ConsMin back in October hosed down any takeover speculation. Then there is the “what next” step, which is where a leap of faith is required because no details of what Pallinghurst and friends brings to ConsMin has been released. Rumoured deals include the possible purchase of a manganese project in South Africa owned by Russian Oligarch, Viktor Vekselberg, or perhaps other South African assets are on the radar screen. Manganese is said to be a favoured target, and South Africa the country of choice.

Carter said the deal would lead to a company with greater stability and security of earnings, accelerate expansion of nickel production, focus on delivering new projects and take advantage of “strategic growth opportunities in the manganese ferroalloys business globally and in new commodities.” But, precisely what those deals are will have to wait as ConsMin proceeds through a tortuous scheme of arrangement. Documents are due to be mailed out next month, with a vote taken of shareholders in May – making ConsMin today very much a work in progress. In the meantime it will be interesting to hear feedback from the roadshow proposed for London.

Rimtalay

18th-March-2007, 09:38 PM

The Consolidated Minerals website VOTE NO has a valuation by Pricewaterhouse Coopers done on the 12th May 06. Shows a preferred valuation of AUD $2.70 when nickel was only US$8/lb. It's now US$22/lb
http://www.usail2.com/price_waterhouse.htm
Vote No and tell the management

noirua

21st-March-2007, 12:12 PM

The "Investors Chronicle" UK edition, has advised investors to accept the offer for CSM. They consider that the new Management are more likely to send CSM in the right direction.

Rimtalay

21st-March-2007, 01:37 PM

Talk about upside, what 40% share in the upside, what upside, we still have the same chickens in the chook house. Maybe the rooster (Gilbertson) will be crowing at 4am to get those lazy chooks off the eggs ( before they crack them even more) and out of the warm henhouse to scratch for some more scraps.
I reckon better to put a bomb under their butts and blow them out of the chook house permanently. Maybe that is what is needed, obviously the chooks don't give a damn about all us baby chicks !!!

Rimtalay

21st-March-2007, 02:20 PM

I hardly think that the Investor Chronicle has done any indepth analysis to make the statement. They even value ConsMin at AUD$2.80 themselves.
Yes accept by all means but at it's proper valuation $3 -$4 /share not $2.28. That's for suckers.

"Consolidated Minerals, the Australian manganese and nickel miner, is to be taken over by former BHPBilliton boss Brian Gilbertson, along with AMCI, a large privately owned coal company. The deal values Consolidated at A$625m (£251m), or 92p a share, below broker Collins Stewart's 115p valuation. The Aim quote will be retained.

A former tip of the year at 111p (7 Jan 2005), Consolidated has yet to deliver. Perhaps Mr Gilbertson can inject new vigour. Accept. " :banghead:

noirua

22nd-March-2007, 11:58 AM

AMCI have recently added 19.2% of Felix Resources at $5.00 a share to their coffers. They seem to be interested in mopping up a lot of Aussie mines.

Rimtalay

23rd-March-2007, 12:18 AM

noirua

23rd-March-2007, 12:19 PM

I see on the Vote No website http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_updates.htm
Pricewaterhouse Coopers and ConsMin demand that all reference to the valuation of ConsMin be removed from the website. Good to see a CNM , UK shareholder helps out to post the info.
Management will go to any lengths to make sure shareholders are kept in the dark.
Its about time that shareholders realise that their about to be well and truly "shafted"

I must say, that Consmin and Pricewaterhouse Cooper seem to be unusually interested in a website that most other companies would normally ignore, in this situation. Who put them up to it I wonder? As it appears to be an error on their part, as it seems to have stirred up far more interest in the "NO" website.

Rimtalay

25th-March-2007, 07:35 AM

Well it is easier to comply with the request than go to court and fight them. But they will find it very hard to stop the info from being posted on the internet, I already have offers from another 3 shareholders in other parts of the world who will post the info for the website to link to.
The management don't realise that by doing this, they have already raised the awareness of shareholders and others.
http://www.usail2.com/please_delete_page.htm
They want to shut me up, but there is a lot at stake, and I'm very determined to get a fair deal for shareholders. Don't forget to email the MD Mr Rod Baxter at rbaxter@consminerals.com.au and post on the bulletin board and have your say.
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_opposition.htm

Rimtalay

25th-March-2007, 07:37 AM

Looks like the management won't get their way without a fight, I have just started getting support from large UK Institutional shareholders, who are not happy either.
They are contacting each other now, so we may have a chance to get a fair deal, otherwise it will fall over.
Emailing the MD Mr Baxter rbaxter@consminerals.com.au and his side kick Mr David Brook is the way to go dbrook@consminerals.com.au
The more you email them the better. I do it every day.

Did you see the announcement Mr Richard Elman the CEO of the Noble Group has resigned as a Director effective immediately. WHY???
You want to WIN , you have to FIGHT.

Rimtalay

25th-March-2007, 07:51 PM

CONSOLIDATED MINERALS* 93p BUY target 117p - Rival takeover offer potential as Elman (Noble Metals) resigns from board.

Manganese ore prices appear to have moved beyond our expectations (see article below)

+> It looks as if the prices published in the Metal Bulletin are some way behind what is being realised in China <+

The following price increase if applied to this year only adds US$10m of value to our NPV of the cash flows and equates to a 2p per share in our valuation.

If the manganese ore price increase is applied on a long term basis then this adds $143m (29p/s) to our valuation.

Sensitivity: a 20c/mtu price increase = $35m in NPV. A 20c/mtu increase = 7p/s

Note also that Richard Elman, who runs Noble Metals, has resigned from the board. Noble Metals is the trading house which sells ConsMins’ ores into China.

Noble Metals might look to make a rival offer for Consolidated Minerals and this could be the reason for Elman’s resignation.

If manganese and chromite ore prices in China are so far ahead of the UK published Metal Bulletin prices then consolidated Minerals might look far better value than we have been able to calculate on previous market information.

“A Chinese ferro-alloy news letter states the following:

Manganese Ore Price Has Increased by 25% This Year Manganese Ore

It is reported that international price of manganese ore has increased by nearly 25% since the end of 2006. Price of high grade manganese ore (Mn 48-50%) has climbed from USD2.5-2.7/mtu FOB to USD3.1-3.3/mtu FOB. According to producers, price of spots to be delivered in April has exceeded USD3.3/mtu.

A European major producer of manganese ore said that the price was around USD2.7/mtu half a year ago, and began to slightly inch up since September 2006. Entering December, supply of high grade manganese ore appeared to be tight, while demand has been increasingly powerful. It is reported that a major ore producer in Europe has even lifted up price to USD3.5/mtu recently.”

*Numis Securities is NOT a broker or advisor to Consolidated Minerals.
Numis Securities does make a market in the shares in the UK.

markrmau

25th-March-2007, 08:07 PM

Rimtaly,

You wrote:

"*Numis Securities is NOT a broker or advisor to Consolidated Minerals.
Numis Securities does make a market in the shares in the UK.

Where did that come from? Numis WAS the UK broker for CSM.

Are they advising an alternate bid for CSM? Could that be the reason for Numis's 'resignation'?

Or have I got my wires crossed?

Sainter

25th-March-2007, 11:15 PM

Funny that, eh? CSM's official line is that they'd outgrown Numis. Gimme a break. As far as I know, CSM has not found another UK broker yet. Why would they sack one broker if they didn't already have another lined up, especially at a time when they're trying to get a message out to their shareholders?

redandgreen

27th-March-2007, 12:23 PM

the rise in SP speaks volumes.....

Rimtalay

27th-March-2007, 01:14 PM

Rival ConsMin bid could be brewing: Numis www.miningnews.net

Paul Garvey
Sunday, 25 March 2007

CONSOLIDATED Minerals' long-time trading ally Noble Metals may be considering a rival bid for the diversified miner, according to Numis Securities analyst John Meyer.

Brian Gilbertson (left) with ConsMin managing director Rod Baxter and chairman Dick Carter

ConsMin's Woodie Woodie mine

Last Friday, Noble's representative on the ConsMin board, Richard Elman, tendered his resignation from the board with immediate effect.

While ConsMin said the resignation was "due to increasing demands associated with his position as chief executive officer of Hong Kong-based Noble Group", Meyer said a potential bid from Noble for ConsMin could have been behind the resignation.

"Noble Metals might look to make a rival offer for Consolidated Minerals and this could be the reason for Elman's resignation," Meyer said in a note released over the weekend.

Noble has handled the trading of ConsMin's products into Asia for several years, and is ConsMin's largest individual shareholder with a 5.52% interest.

However, Elman was a member of the ConsMin board that said it had unanimously recommended the current takeover bid – in the absence of a better offer – launched by a private equity syndicate headed by former BHP Billiton chief Brian Gilbertson.

Gilbertson's Russian-backed group Pallinghurst Resources, together with private coal miner AMCI, are offering $1.38 cash per share plus two shares in the new ConsMin for every five currently held, in a bid that values the company at $2.28/share.

ConsMin operates the Woodie Woodie manganese mine, the Beta-Hunt nickel complex, plus the Coobina chromite project, all in Western Australia.

Numis also pointed to a newsletter report about recent improvements in the manganese price – in which manganese prices are reported to have increased 25% so far this year – as further supporting a higher price for ConsMin.

"It looks as if the prices published in the Metal Bulletin are some way behind what is being realised in China," Meyer said.

"If manganese and chromite prices in China are so far ahead of the UK-published Metal Bulletin prices, then Consolidated Minerals might look far better value than we have been able to calculate on previous market information."

Numis had up until recently been ConsMin's long-serving broker and advisor into London, but the group stood down from those posts shortly after the Pallinghurst offer was announced.

BlueBayDiver

27th-March-2007, 02:24 PM

Me thinks Rimtalay doth protest too much !!

Funny that comments used on the vote no website appear the same as Rimtalay's. Maybe some marketing attention being subversively drawn to the Usail2 website at the expense of real members of this chat site!!

Rimtalay

27th-March-2007, 08:51 PM

Hi BlueBayDiver,
Haven't heard from you before. What are you some stooge from ConsMIn? I wouldn't be surprised. How many shares do you have in ConsMin?
What a fantastic post, was it your first post eh?
How about something a little more constructive in future.
If you're a stooge from ConsMIn, at least you can see, no one is happy with this deal.
Good to see you've been browsing the Vote No website.
If your a ConsMIn shareholder have you posted on the Vote no website yet? NO

Sainter

27th-March-2007, 10:52 PM

I, among others, am very grateful for Rimtalay's efforts in this area. I welcome his postings as they strive to reach CSM shareholders, in order for them to be more fully informed (unlike CSM and PwC's recent actions). Even on the day the bid was announced, it took but the back of an envelope and one minute to prove (and I mean prove) that this offer was a crap one for CSM shareholders. Rimtalay's efforts have provided a focus point for people to demonstrate their displeasure with this pitiful offer, and as a conduit for shareholders to better understand the true value of the company.
Have another look around the NO website. Unless you're Rod Baxter or intellectually challenged, you would have to say the facts make a compelling case to vote NO.
Oh, and the proof? Look no further than Ni.
Keep up the great work Rimtalay :xyxthumbs

Rimtalay

28th-March-2007, 09:10 AM

Hi Sainter - Thanks for the kind words. If ConsMin management did their job, and made announcements to the Market, I wouldn't have to do their job for them.
Chrome ore is rocketing, I hope that ConsMin executives have time to look after shareholder interests and try and improve their negotiating skills with the Chinese. From what I hear they are bloody hopeless.

China Buys African, Turkish Chrome on India Tax Rise (Update1)

By Helen Yuan

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest producer of ferroalloys, is turning to South Africa and Turkey for chrome ore after India imposed a tax on the mineral to curb shipments.

Chinese steelmakers and traders are increasing purchases of chrome ore from those countries after costs from India increased, said Tu Kun, ferroalloy general manager of China Minmetals Corp., the nation's biggest importer of the commodity.

India, which has less than 1 percent of the world's chromium deposits, supplies one third of China's imports of chrome ores. The South Asian nation imposed a 2,000 rupee ($44) a ton duty on overseas shipments of the commodity from March 1. Higher duties raised costs for Chinese buyers as the nation's economic growth of 10.7 percent last year boosted consumption.

``Chrome ore demand is strong because of increased production capacity of stainless steel in China,'' Tu said at a conference in Hong Kong.

China may boost stainless steel output by 37 percent to 7.35 million metric tons this year from 5.36 million tons in 2006, metal research firm Heinz H. Pariser said last week. Ferrochrome, a ferroalloy combining iron and chrome, can be used to produce stainless steel as a substitute for nickel.

``The Indian government doesn't want to export any minerals,'' said Goutam Dutta, mineral exports head of Tata Steel Ltd., at the conference. Exporters are trying to pass on higher taxes to buyers. ``We will see how things settle.''

Import Surge

China's chrome ore imports rose 40 percent to 4.32 million tons last year, including 1.34 million tons, or 31 percent, from India. About 18 percent were from Turkey and 17 percent from South Africa, according to customs data.

``Chromium prices will remain high in the second quarter'' as Chinese demand keeps rising and exporters may impose more measures to curb shipments, Tu said. Prices could be more volatile in the third quarter as Chinese stainless steel producers may cut back production, he added.

Minmetals plans to boost chrome ore imports by 67 percent to 1 million tons this year, according to Tu.

To contact the reporters on this story: Helen Yuan in Hong Kong at hyuan@bloomberg.net ;

Rimtalay

28th-March-2007, 09:44 AM

ConsMin - manganese is also up more in China. Have management of ConsMin advised the market, no way, they want us all to believe that the only way forward is to accept their lousy deal.

Manganese surge continues (http://www.metal-pages.com/)
Chinese manganese prices have continued to surge so far this week on the back of the continued tight availability and soaring production costs caused by manganese carbonate and selenium dioxide, market players told Metal-Pages today.

27-Mar-2007
FeCr stays strong in China
Manganese surge continues
Chinese Ni imports and exports soar (http://www.metal-pages.com)
26-Mar-2007
Chinese Mn alloys prices higher on supply shortages
Chrome metal continues up (http://www.metal-pages.com/)

questionall_42

28th-March-2007, 02:24 PM

Being a passive reader of this thread, I just want to say that Sainter is spot on with his/her comments about Rimtalay. I, for one, fully appreciate the information that is being posted here. Thanks.

Rimtalay

28th-March-2007, 05:42 PM

Consolidated Minerals: JP Morgan sees no reason to tender shares at current offer price

JP Morgan sees no reason to tender its shares to the bid for Consolidated Minerals at its current price, according to Ian Henderson, a portfolio manager at JP Morgan.
Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources private equity fund and AMCI have launched an offer for Consolidated Minerals, offering shareholders AUD 1.38 per share as well as two shares in the new company for every five held. Although changes in the ConsMins share price will translate into the value of the scrip portion of the offer, the bid has been criticised by some investors who claim that the cash component of the bid should be increased to as much as AUD 2 per share. JP Morgan, a minority shareholder in Consolidated Minerals, has now joined the ranks of investors who believe the offer price should be higher.
“Where we stand is that we have not voted one way or the other. We note that the board has recommended the offer and that the market is seemingly disappointed that there is no premium,” Henderson said.
“It is going quite cheap and the deal does seemingly look a bit opportunistic in light of low manganese prices, but that said maybe Brian Gilbertson and his colleagues can make a great success of it.
“The stock is trading at a negative spread and we are not complete fools. We are not going to ignore the fact that in the open market you could get more for your shares – there would have to be a very special reason to do that and there doesn’t seem to be here,” he said.

Rimtalay

28th-March-2007, 07:37 PM

Did you know, ConsMin holding in JML is now at $152 million today.
What do you think CSM shareholders, do you really think that $2.28/share makes sense? I think NOT.
Did you know that ConsMin holding in BC Iron (BCI) is worth $11.55 million?
Do you still think your CSM shares are only worth a miserable $2.28/share?
Think again.
Rememeber ConsMin has 200,000 tons of nickel in the ground at 1% nickel cut off grade worth $12 billion. YES $12 billion.
Do you still think your CSM shares are worth $2.28/share?
I'd like to know what deal have management cut with Pallinghurst Resources to get us to sell at $2.28/share. Must be a BIG BONUS.
Are shareholders Stupid? I think No.
I hear that "JP Morgan sees no reason to tender shares at current offer price, executive says"
What do you think BlueBayDiver? Do you plan to sell all your shares for $2.28/share? Either you're Nuts or a ConsMIn stooge. Will you tells us?

Rimtalay

29th-March-2007, 07:22 AM

BHP execs are bullish on metals prices
By Tom Stundza
Purchasing
March 28, 2007

Top executives at mining giant BHP Billiton caution buyers that transaction prices of copper, nickel and other base metals will remain high (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=australia&sid=a5xAvQpicGUY) for the next several decades as demand climbs from China,India and other Asian nations.

BHP Billiton’s chief executive officer, Chip Goodyear, says he is “positive” that the development of China and India into world economic powers “is the reason for a multi-decade increase in commodity prices.” Speaking to the media while on business in Chile, the Australian mining exec says the three-year surge in nonferrous prices is a so-called super-cycle that shows no signs of abating.

Analysts are suggesting that a metals “super cycle'” will keep prices elevated as supplies lag behind demand. Diego Hernandez, president of BHP's base-metals unit, agrees: “We expect that this super cycle will continue for a while. We think that demand will continue to stay strong for many years.''

redandgreen

29th-March-2007, 08:34 AM

thanks Rimmy...agree with you totally.
My CSM shares (given all that has taken place over the last 6 months) are certainly worth a lot more than the highly dubious valuation of $2.28.

Rimtalay

29th-March-2007, 12:06 PM

Did you note that ConsMins stake in JML increased to $152 million yesterday, in fact JML is now valued at $478,855,829 market capitalization. Won't be long before they'll be able to do a scrip takeover of ConsMin, since they are now level pegging CSM on market capitalization.
Pity that Mr Michael Kiernan isn't still on the board, he would have snapped them up when JML was only 30 -40 cents. An opportunity lost.
One shareholder said on the Vote No website (http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_updates.htm)
"We should call a meeting and kick out the directors. Consolidated should break up like Coles by agreeing to sell Jabiru shareholding to Oxania at a decent premium so Oxania can launch a takeover of Jabiru, Mindy Mindy to Fortescue, float the rest of BC Iron, sell Vital Metals on the Market, sell YML back to its directors or on the market, and give the cash back to the shareholders. I'll go and buy some Oxania Shares so I can share in the Jabiru Story there,"
I think it makes a lot of sense.

Dutchy3

29th-March-2007, 08:15 PM

CSM was a real watershed stock for me a few years ago ...

Although I don't expect the same type of compounding this time its a relatively safe LONG for me

Rimtalay

29th-March-2007, 08:56 PM

Hi Dutchy3
What's your take on ConsMin from the charts. I'm new at charts, but it looks like sellers are getting fewer and that buyers are pushing it higher, what do you think?
ConsMin management won't get this deal passed at the present price.

With Jabiru at $152 million and other ConsMin investments at $25 million, it would be better to break the Company up and sell all the assets than accept $2.28/share

Dutchy3

29th-March-2007, 09:11 PM

Hi Rim

Corp actions can always produce results that are unexpected ... in my experience the chart often tells the story ahead of the actual news ... CSM is a BUY for me ... with STOPS starting at 2.30 ...

Rimtalay

30th-March-2007, 07:33 AM

Good times are on a roll for ConsMin with manganese ore prices on the move. Should expect an announcement from ConsMin management in the next few days, as they have a legal obligation to keep the market informed. The increases in Chrome ore and managanese ore could result in a 1/2 year profit of $50+ million. ConsMin management will be liable if shareholders are not advised epecially when a takeover bid is being offered. All shareholders have a right to know the present earnings situation of the Company.
I hope the Company stooge - BlueBay Diver reads this and reports back to management, what do you reckon D.... The Company is now on notice publicly.

Chinese manganese metal prices surge; offers in wide range (http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/8962081.xml?src=Metalsrssheadlines1)

Hong Kong (Platts)--29Mar2007
Chinese-origin 99.7% manganese metal offer prices have continued to rise,
moving beyond $3,000/mt FOB China this week. Prices, however, are quoted in
a wide range at $3,000-3,500/mt FOB China in a thin market, local traders said
on Thursday. Prices were indicated at around $2,000-2,200/mt FOB China a week
ago.
One Hong Kong-based trader said: "Offer prices for manganese metal are
changing every day. I am now offering material at about $3,200/mt FOB China
but could not find buyers so far." The trader said prices for its raw material
carbonate manganese ore prices were rising, leading to firmer manganese metal
prices. "Manganese ore is rich in Hunan province of China but the area's
mining activity has been further restricted by the government due to the
heightened environmetal protection policy in China," he said.
Another trader said: "The highest offer price level I heard earlier this
week was at $3,500/mt FOB China. Prices are up but we can't find spot material
available so far. Chinese producers are holding back their material when
prices are going up." A third trader added: "Prices were up earlier this week
but we are now seeing some technical correction these past two days. Offer
prices are all over the place and moving in wide range due to market
speculation."

Rimtalay

30th-March-2007, 09:33 AM

THIS IS FROM CONSMIN MANAGEMENT AND MY REPLY - YOU MAKE UP YOUR OWN MIND
I quote from ConsMin management
“e) You refer to the Company holding 200,000 tons of contained nickel in the ground and incorrectly convert this into a revenue number. This is not a reserve and your calculation takes no account of geological or mining losses. The current resource at Kambalda is 78,560 Nickel tonnes, with reserves of 16,911 tonnes. We will be working hard over the next 12 months to convert further nickel "endowment" into resources and reserves.”
My response
“Is that true?
I say that Titan owned 130,000 tons of contained nickel in the ground. I have put the ASX listed document on website http://www.usail2.com/TITAN%20RESOURCES%20NICKEL.pdf (http://www.usail2.com/TITAN%20RESOURCES%20NICKEL.pdf)"Widgiemooltha Exploration and Evaluation
The Company owns the nickel rights over 227km2 of prospective and strategic tenements in the Widgiemooltha area (Figure 2) that form part of the
world class Kambalda nickel province. Nickel resources within the Company’s tenements at Widgiemooltha total 130,000 tonnes of contained
nickel metal at a 1% Ni cut off in eight separate deposits. An active exploration and evaluation program has been pursued over these tenements
with a series of positive results being achieved."
David, I have only added the figures in your own 2006 Concise Annual report. The figure of 123,000 tons is also in your report.( not the 130,000 claimed by Titan)
I also thought that the Twin Decline was planned so that it could explore and access "an estimated potential nickel exploration target of 90,000 tons"
but I did not include this because the "calculation takes no account of geological or mining losses"
So I believe that 123,000 + 78,560 = 200,000+ tons. Is this correct?
Maybe I should amend the in the ground figure to reflect the current price of nickel.
ie AUD$12.2 billion. We don't want to mislead shareholders do we.”

noirua

30th-March-2007, 10:38 AM

Hi Dutchy3
With Jabiru at $152 million and other ConsMin investments at $25 million, it would be better to break the Company up and sell all the assets than accept $2.28/share

That's probably what AMCI plan to do and create a new company with the best assets remaining.

Rimtalay

2nd-April-2007, 07:51 PM

Do you think ConsMin management plan to tell shareholders that Chrome ore is up in China??

China on chrome ore alert despite high imports in YTD
According to the recently released State Custom statistics, China imported nearly 853,000 tonnes of chrome ore in the first two months of this year, almost double the 438,000 tonnes seen in the same period last year.

FERRO-ALLOYS Chrome Ore Price Kept High [2007-04-02]
FERRO-ALLOYS China Buys African, Turkish Chrome on India Tax Rise [2007-04-02]
FERRO-ALLOYS China Was Seriously Affected by Export Tax Imposed by India [2007-03-28]
FERRO-ALLOYS China Buys African, Turkish Chrome on India Tax Rise [2007-03-28]

Chromium metal price going to “the moon” ]
Chromium metal prices might increase in Europe ]
International Cr ore prices to jump up next week
:D :D

Col Lector

2nd-April-2007, 08:50 PM

Gidday Rimtalay....following on from your ponderings on Chromium......thought you may enjoy this too...

PLATTS: Chinese manganese metal prices surge; offers in wide range
Hong Kong (Platts) Chinese-origin 99.7% manganese metal offer prices have continued to rise, moving beyond $3,000/mt FOB China this week. Prices, however, are quoted in a wide range at $3,000-3,500/mt FOB China in a thin market, local traders said on Thursday. Prices were indicated at around $2,000-2,200/mt FOB China a week ago. One Hong Kong-based trader said: "Offer prices for manganese metal are changing every day. I am now offering material at about $3,200/mt FOB China but could not find buyers so far." The trader said prices for its raw material carbonate manganese ore prices were rising, leading to firmer manganese metal prices. "Manganese ore is rich in Hunan province of China but the area's mining activity has been further restricted by the government due to the heightened environmetal protection policy in China," he said. Another trader said: "The highest offer price level I heard earlier this week was at $3,500/mt FOB China. Prices are up but we can't find spot material available so far. Chinese producers are holding back their material when prices are going up." A third trader added: "Prices were up earlier this week but we are now seeing some technical correction these past two days. Offer prices are all over the place and moving in wide range due to market speculation."

Rimtalay

4th-April-2007, 08:40 PM

This is the latest research document from Numis Securities, ConsMins EX UK broker. Note the increases in manganese and chromite.

CONSOLIDATED MINERALS – 103p buy 126p (from 117p) Earnings takeoff on higher Manganese & Chromite ore prices
Manganese ore prices jump a further 20% to $3.10 – 3.30 / mtu
Further evidence is emerging of higher manganese ore and chromite ore prices in China
Manganese ore prices: have jumped to $3.10 - 3.30/mtu according to the Metal Bulletin this week from $2.50 – 2.70 / mtu last week.
Analysts are likely to upgrade forecasts further as the market begins to appreciate the impact of the rise in manganese and chromite ore prices.
Consolidated Minerals management should have been aware of the strength of the manganese and chromite ore markets in China in recent months.
We believe that the Metal Bulletin published manganese ore price is beginning to catch up with domestic Chinese price levels which may have been at higher levels for some time.
Steel demand: for raw materials continues to rise generating further demand for imports of manganese and chrome ores for local ferromanganese and ferrochrome production.
Manganese ore: demand in China rose by 19% last year to 5.1mt representing nearly half total global consumption. Chinese steel production is forecast to grow by a further
10% this year with month-on-month production growth of 20% for February. We expect a similar rise in manganese ore demand.
Valuation : our valuation rises to US$622m for the group from US$564m as the value of the manganese business rises with increasing ore prices. Further valuation gains appear
likely as the company works through its nickel hedge book and begins to realise more of the nickel price. We have yet to raise our valuation for the chromite business as we are
awaiting confirmation of the new level for chromite prices in Europe and in China . We believe that Chromite ore prices in china may be around 80% higher than some transactions seen in South Africa .
Target price: we are raising our target price to 126p from 117p. This includes a 15% discount to our net present value calculation to account for the normal market which
we expect companies to have against our forecast valuations.
New estimates
Year to Sales PBT EPS Tax DPS Div. Yield FCF Yield Net Cash P/E
June ($m) ($m) (¢) (%) (¢) (%) (%) ($m) (x)
2006A 188.0 17.6 5.9 26.2 3.0 1.5 3.5 18.4 34.7
2007F 235.2 68.4 22.4 26.2 11.2 5.5 11.3 55.0 9.1
2008F 290.5 93.5 31.1 26.2 15.6 7.6 16.2 77.8 6.5
2009F 314.4 115.4 31.6 26.2 15.7 7.7 15.7 75.1 6.4
Old estimates
Year to Sales PBT EPS Tax DPS Div. Yield FCF Yield Net Cash P/E
June ($m) ($m) (¢) (%) (¢) (%) (%) ($m) (x)
2006A 188.0 17.6 5.9 26.2 3.0 1.5 3.5 18.4 34.7
2007F 225.1 59.2 19.4 26.2 9.7 4.8 9.9 48.5 10.5
2008F 252.2 58.9 19.6 26.2 9.8 4.8 10.5 51.3 10.4
2009F 303.5 106.8 28.9 26.2 14.3 7.0 14.4 69.4 7.0
Numis Securities does not act as UK broker or advisor but does act as a market maker to Consolidated Minerals
ANALYSTS: JOHN MEYER 020 7260 1279 / MARC ELLIOTT 020 7260 1232 / SIMON TOYNE 020 7260 1330

noirua

4th-April-2007, 08:49 PM

Hi Rimtalay, From what I've read on boards all over the place you are having an affect that will make AMCI and Co increase their bid. I thought you had little chance at first, now you've got them on the ropes. Quite an achievement.

Dutchy3

4th-April-2007, 09:50 PM

Nice confirming action today ... chart tells the story ... hold LONG

Rimtalay

5th-April-2007, 09:02 AM

The fight has only started. What ConsMin management never realised was what was happening in China, I know first hand. Manganese and Chrome ore are rocketing, ConsMin management can't keep a lid on that.

www.asianmetals.com
[4-4] Ferrochrome prices rocket universally
[4-4] Chrome ore prices keep increasing in Turkey
[4-4] Chrome ore price overtops RMB65/dmtu in China
Chrome ore is fetching over RMB 65/dmtu. This equals US$8.40/dmtu or US $352.95 /ton for 42% chrome ore. Last year ConsMin received US$160/ton or AUD$199/ton. Cash costs are AUD$124/ton. Using the same cash costs, and the latest chrome ore prices from China, this could result in $40 million dollars profit for the next 6 months. Yes, ConsMin management will say that I've forgotten to add in seafreight and commissions, but we can deduct those from the equation and it will still leave a tidy profit. Of course if the management told us how much they paid in fees to Noble Group and freight, we wouldn't have to speculate. But lets say AUD$30 million.

redandgreen

5th-April-2007, 04:43 PM

Rim
What do you think is a realistic valuation on CSM given their significant improving fortunes?

Rimtalay

5th-April-2007, 05:13 PM

A fair and reasonable price for Consmin is $3 to $3.20. If they got their act together and increased their nickel production, then $4.
With the present management, who knows, they spend most of their time trying to sell a deal at a price no one will accept. They'd be better off trying to fast track nickel like MIncor.

Rimtalay

5th-April-2007, 05:31 PM

AT last ConsMin management has made a market update for the rising prices of chromite and manganese, but NOTE after the market has closed before a 4 day holiday. You know they do this deliberately, they worry that even a little bit of good news might excite the market and the share price will go even higher, thereby making their $2.28/share offer look even sicker than it already is.

Consolidated Minerals Limited 05 April 2007

ASX / Media Release

5 April 2007

OPERATIONS AND MARKET UPDATE

Further to the announcement of 15 March 2007 regarding the impact of recent tropical cyclones, Consolidated Minerals Limited (ASX: CSM, AIM: CNM, FSE: CMN) today advised that normal mining and haulage operations have now resumed at the Woodie Woodie manganese operations following temporary disruptions associated with the March rainfall.

The abnormally heavy rainfall events resulted in approximately 10 days downtime for mining and haulage operations at Woodie Woodie and 2-3 days downtime for the treatment facility. The Company responded by treating more easily accessible but lower yielding alternative ore stockpiles during this period.

As previously advised, the Company confirms that the disruption to operations has not changed its FY07 manganese production guidance of 900,000-925,000 tonnes, which factored in potential wet season impacts.

The Coobina chromite operation also remains on track to achieve FY07 production guidance with only one day's production lost during the March rainfall events, as previously advised.

Market update and outlook - Manganese and Chromite

Consolidated Minerals' marketing team has recently returned from Ferro Alloy Conferences held in Hong Kong and Southern China, where negotiations commenced with customers for upcoming shipments of both manganese and chromite. Indications from these meetings are that the manganese and chromite markets are continuing to strengthen, following increases in manganese prices on a landed (CIF) basis during the March Quarter and strong chromite prices.

However, this positive upward trend continues to be partially offset by rising shipping freight rates and the strengthening Australian - US Dollar exchange rate, impacting the FOB prices, or the "net-back" prices, received by the Company. Freight rates have, on average, increased by 50% since June 2006 and currently the Australian Dollar has risen by approximately 7% against the US Dollar compared with the first half of FY07.

Based on current freight rates, the average FOB price received by the Company for manganese lump ore for the full 2007 financial year is expected to increase by between 8-10% on the average price received for the first half of FY07 (US$2.09/dmtu FOB).

The chrome ore market has also continued to strengthen on the back of strong stainless steel production in China, which increased by approximately 68% to 5.3 million tonnes in 2006.

The average FOB price received by the Company for chromite ore for the full 2007 financial year is expected to increase by approximately 6% on the average price received for the first half of FY07 (US$148 / tonne FOB), based on current freight rates.

Consolidated Minerals' Managing Director, Mr Rod Baxter, said "We anticipate receiving higher than expected prices for a number of forthcoming shipments, however, it is important to emphasise that the recent price gains in manganese and chromite have been partially offset both by the significant increases in shipping freight rates and the strengthening Australian dollar."

ENDS

For further information contact:

Rod Baxter David Brook
Consolidated Minerals Ltd W: +61 8 9321 3633
Telephone: +61 8 9321 3633 M: + 61 (0) 418 904 397
www.consminerals.com.au E: dbrook@consminerals.com.au

noirua

5th-April-2007, 08:52 PM

I thought that CSM were protected on exchange rate movements, to some extent, with a 3 year rolling hedge programme; Set at 75%, 60% and 50%.

Sainter

5th-April-2007, 09:28 PM

And they downplayed it as much as they possibly could. I can't believe these guys would not have long term shipping contracts in place, so a 50% rise seems a bit steep to me. The CEO of ADY went on the other month about he had locked in low freight prices for all of this year. Why can't CSM do the same? Not sharp enough? Or are they having a wink and a nod with the shipping company-pay more now and get a discount once Gilbertson owns the majority? Or is that too much of a conspiracy theory?
I'm guessing the maths shouldn't be too hard to work out (if enough info has been supplied), but the 8-10% net increase doesn't sound right to me. Again, they're frugal on the info they offer. Shonky b@$tard$.

Rimtalay

6th-April-2007, 07:44 AM

Did you note how they put out the announcement after the market closed before a 4 day holiday.
Yes the announcement is a load of waffle, I think that Baxter could teach the pollies a thing or two about gobbledygook, mumbo jumbo and drivel. I doubt whether he has given a straight answer in his life judging from that announcement.
They are desperately worried that any good news will push the share price higher, ending their deal.
Judging from the announcement it seems hard to believe that they are enjoying the good prices for manganese and chromite, they had better start to sharpen their pencils when they deal with the Chinese.
Maybe we should get ARH's Dr Clive Palmer to go in to bat for them.

Rimtalay

8th-April-2007, 01:34 PM

Trying to understand the Operations & Market Update, I have worked out the profit on maganese so far. Buried in the bull is good news, by my calculations using their figures will result in a profit of $38,713,600 on manganese for the full year.
Using the 920,000 ton manganese production, the costs of AUD$2.19/dmtu and the fact that we can expect a 10% increase on the last half average price received US$2.10/dmtu ( they say US$2.09, but it actually works out at US$2.098)
New price is US$2.31/dmtu
Total income AUD $135,424,000 costs $96,710,400
Profit $38,713,600 for the full year ( last half was $14.5 million, this half AUD $24,213,600 and that's using their poor figures.
Not looking too bad eh. Although I still think that their price quoted does not represent the present market in China. But they maybe selling manganese cheaper to other customers.

Rimtalay

8th-April-2007, 01:35 PM

Trying to understand the Operations & Market Update, ie the mumbo jumbo on Chromite, try as hard as I can I have decided it is impossible to believe their figures. ConsMin managements price of US$148/ton FOB, is correct for the last 1/2 year. But a 6% increase over the full year would mean a 12% increase going forward. Rubbish, they are not living on the same planet or its a typo error. ( or they are giving it away, in which case we need to know WHY?)
Chrome ore is presently fetching US$350/ton for 42%.
www.asianmetal.com
[4-4] Chrome ore price overtops RMB65/dmtu in China

chrome ore is fetching over RMB 65/dmtu. This equals US$8.40/dmtu or US $352.95 /ton for 42% chrome ore.

And it just didn't happen on the 4-4-07, its been high for weeks.
This is from www.asianmetal.com a few weeks ago. ie: 6th Feb 07

"Chinese consumers receive much higher offers of Cr ore 2007-2-6 12:59:57 BEIJING (Asian Metal) 6 Feb 07 – Chinese consumers reported to Asian Metal that lately they received much higher offer prices from international suppliers, even with some overtopping USD320/t CIF China. A Gansu-based consumer reported that they bought 900t of Pakistani lumpy Cr ore 40% mid last week at RMB56.5/dmtu (USD6.43/dmtu) ex port Tianjin. “ The trading company offered RMB57.5/dmtu (USD6.54/dmtu) ex ports when we called again after two days last week, additionally, I heard that some deals were made as high as RMB64/dmtu ex ports, which is unbelievable to me, ” added the source. a Liaoning-based consumers complained that a supplier even offered as high as USD328/t CIF China for lumpy Cr ore 40%min, origin from Pakistan. “ My Turkish suppliers informed us that they have few cargos available until April, ” remarked the source. A trader based in Tianjin was also informed by her Turkish suppliers that there are limited materials for prompt shipment. She revealed that a reliable supplier offered USD235/t CIF China for metallurgical grade lumpy Cr ore 42% twenty days ago, but she did not accept that offer in view of increasing adventures in the business. “ I will come back to the market after the Spring Festival holidays, ” said the source.

noirua

11th-April-2007, 04:51 AM

An old speech by Mr Michael Kiernan MD on the 5th June last year. A bit difficult to listen to with the coughs and clinking of glasses, but please perservere. Is there anything in this: http://www.brr.com.au/event/CSM/851/11593

Rimtalay

11th-April-2007, 03:33 PM

This does not sound good for shareholders of ConsMIn.
http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=19260&sn=Detail

DEALS UNDER SCRUTINY
Fiddlers under the roof – Vekselberg, Deripaska and Gilbertson
Asset claims shadow Rusal IPO and Consmin takeover bid
Author: John Helmer
Posted: Tuesday , 10 Apr 2007

MOSCOW -
With a little more bulge at the waistline, and a little more bush in his beard, Victor Vekselberg would be a dead ringer for Tevye the Milkman, hero of Fiddler on the Roof, Broadway's most famous musical about Russia. The fiddler of that tale was a symbol of survival in the rough days in Russia, before the Communist Revolution.
In the fifteen years since that revolution was reversed, starting in 1992, Vekselberg has survived especially well. You might say that Victor's theme song has taken all the conditional out of Tevye's famous refrain, If I were a Rich Man:
Lord who made the lion and the lamb
You decreed I should be what I am
Would it spoil some vast eternal plan
If I were a Wealthy Man?
But as a fiddler, according to complaints that are being tested in the courts of Russia and other jurisdictions, Vekselberg is a schemer of a different sort, allegedly converting other people's assets to make them his own. He denies this, and so does his most important lieutenant for the past two years, Brian Gilbertson. Both are about to ask the London market to believe them - Vekselberg in a main board listing of bauxite and aluminium producer, United Company Rusal; and Gilbertson in an AIM listing of the merger between manganese, chromite, nickel and iron-ore miner Consolidated Minerals (Consmin) and Pallinghurst Resources.
The allegations are also a test for JPMorgan Cazenove, which is believed to be seeking a mandate for the Rusal IPO; and which, on March 30, was formally named by Consolidated Minerals as its global broker, replacing Numis Securities.
Eleven months ago, according to one of Russia's wealth charts, Vekselberg possessed a fortune of $9.7 billion. Another wealth tracker, Forbes Russia, estimated it at $10 billion for 2006; that was double his fortune in 2005. According to Forbes also, Vekselberg occupied the 5th rung of the Russian ladder of fortune. These estimates are all based on the attributable value of Vekselberg's stakes in aluminium and bauxite producer SUAL; oil company TNK-BP; and conglomerate holding company, Renova. Vekselberg should soon be in a position to know exactly what his paper is worth, because he is selling out - converting his SUAL stake into 22% of the newly merged United Company Rusal, and then selling a sizeable share of that in a London IPO; selling his shares in TNK-BP for cash, probably to state owned oil company Rosneft; a big chunk of Renova's power stakes are also up for cash sale.
Buyers from Vekselberg, however, are obliged to ask the simple question - are the assets he's selling lawfully his? And not only buyers - Vekselberg's quondam rival, now erstwhile partner in United Company Rusal, Oleg Deripaska, is also facing similar challenges to the legality of his claim to the assets comprising his 66% stake in the new company.
A source close to them both has told Mineweb that, in their negotiations of merger terms, each agreed to give the other the following discount-premium offer: if asset claims are settled with compensation payments, then the concomitant loss of value in the merged company must be compensated. Either Vekselberg may gain shareholding at Deripaska's expense, or vice versa; or they may pay each other the money their asset troubles have caused.
There are two pending claims, one against Vekselberg, involving an alleged fraud in SUAL's takeover of the Volgograd Aluminium Plant; and one against Deripaska by his former partner and godfather, Mikhail Chernoy, over a trusteeship agreement granting Chernoy a 20% stake in the pre-merger Russian Aluminium (Rusal) company, its capital value and its dividend stream; according to Chernoy, that sums to about $5.2 billion.
The case against Vekselberg's companies has been moving through the Russian courts, and is now being prepared for filing abroad. The case against Deripaska was filed in the UK High Court last November 24. Mineweb has reported the detail of both cases before.
The case claims set out allegations and particulars, which lawyers and bankers, who have been invited to prepare the marketing of the new Rusal shares in a London listing, cannot avoid investigating, especially not if they are subject to the supervision of US Government regulators. Both Vekselberg and Deripaska concede they are in an awkward position there. Vekselberg renounced his US green card (permanent immigration visa) and limits his exposure to US court claims already pending against him, alleging fraud and theft of an oilfield. Through a spokesman, Deripaska has acknowledged being banned from entering the US for several years; a ban which UK and Australian officials have also corroborated, while they waived it for Deripaska to cross their frontiers. But the US visa he was granted between 2005 and 2006 has not been renewed. Lawyers for Deripaska in the UK have drawn up affidavits claiming he is almost never at his Belgrave Square house, or in his country home besides.
In Deripaska's case, it was his butler who may prove to be the Achilles heel, jurisdictionally speaking. Sources close to the Chernoy case say that, following the High Court filing late last year, detectives shadowing Deripaska warned process servers that he was on his way from his aircraft to his home at 5 Belgrave Square, in London. When his car pulled up, the process server made his move, and Deripaska scuttled for the tradesman's entrance of the mansion. It was the butler at the front-door who took Chernoy's writ - and he has subsequently testified that he gave it to Deripaska. The High Court will hear argument from lawyers in the case over whether Deripaska has been lawfully served, and the case may commence. If the judge rules in favour of Deripaska's butler, the lawyers go into further argument over whether Chernoy's claim to have executed his shareholding deal with Deripaska in London allows the High Court to adjudicate the dispute. When and if the case comes to trial on the merits, Deripaska will testify that the signature on the agreement with Chernoy isn't his.

End of Part 1 see part 2

Rimtalay

11th-April-2007, 03:35 PM

Part 2 -

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=19260&sn=Detail

DEALS UNDER SCRUTINY

Registration of offshore companies, and initial placement offers (IPOs), also expose Vekselberg and Deripaska to government regulators and courts. Announcing the intention to sell shares in the new Rusal on the London Stock Exchange is an open invitation for those who claim their assets were fiddled to apply to the UK courts to retrieve them. Deripaska may have already proved that he is fleeter on foot that his Belgravia butler, but his and Vekselberg's acquisition tactics are now catching up with them.
Brian Gilbertson, one of South Africa's best-known businessmen, says he had nothing to do with any alleged unlawful asset takeovers when he was chief executive of SUAL, the Russian aluminium company controlled by Vekselberg. What Gilbertson did, or didn't do, knew or didn't know, during his time in Russia may be a footnote, as far as the Russians are concerned. But Australian shareholders, and regulators may be much more interested, when they review this month and next Gilbertson's takeover bid for Consolidated Minerals (Consmin) of Perth.
According to public announcements that began in February, Gilbertson and a South African associate Arne Frandsen have proposed a friendly takeover by their Pallinghurst Resources of Consmin. Details of where Pallinghurst's A$300 million cash offer is coming from are scarce. Gilbertson has told Consmin he is "targeting $1 billion of equity commitments"; that doesn't sound like the money is either in Gilbertson's pocket, or in Pallinghurst's bag, at least not yet. Brisbane-based AMCI, controlled by Hans Mende, has been identified by Gilbertson as one of his backers for the Consmin takeover. Six weeks ago, AMCI sold its Australian coal assets to CVRD of Brazil for A$835 million; subtracting net debt, it appears to have A$678 million cash on hand. Some of that appears to be buying Mende a seat on the board of the post-takeover Consmin. The Western Australian media have also reported rumours that Gilbertson's bid is being backed by Vekselberg as a silent partner in Pallinghurst.
South African sources have told Mineweb they believe Gilbertson may have converted Vekselberg's promise to pay him a multi-million dollar bonus for a successful share listing for SUAL, because Gilbertson couldn't deliver on the IPO; and because Vekselberg was reluctant to concede the obligation to pay the reward. Gilbertson declines to say if he and Vekselberg have settled for a promise from Vekselberg to deliver several dozen million dollars into Pallinghurst's capital. Vekselberg's spokesman also prefers not to answer questions on the matter.
With or without Vekselberg, however, Gilbertson's credibility is the driver of Pallinghurst's takeover of Consmin; if he succeeds in creating the new company, to be listed in London and Frankfurt, Gilbertson and his associates would control it with 60% of the shares. But first the Australian, then the London market, must decide whether Vekselberg's and Gilbertson's acquisition record in Russia warrants trust.
Gilbertson's name appears as one of the alleged defendants accused by Ralco, a 17% shareholder in the Volgograd Aluminium Plant, one of the key production assets taken over by SUAL soon after Gilbertson became chief executive of SUAL in Moscow in August 2004. Ralco says it was swindled out of its shareholding stake, and the Volgograd smelter fraudulently incorporated by SUAL between 2000 and 2005. Ralco's complaint has been before the Russian courts already. Asked what had happened to the Volgograd shares, Gilbertson told Mineweb: "I am satisfied that SUAL acted lawfully during the period of my tenure as President, and as you know, we had a well-staffed legal department to ensure that that was the case."
Gilbertson's contract with SUAL began in August 2004. It ended at the start of this month, when SUAL agreed to merge with rival Russian Aluminium (Rusal), owned by magnate Oleg Deripaska. Gilbertson, who had been first choice to become chairman of the board of the new United Company Rusal, was dropped, and Vekselberg, who controls about 22% of the new company, has been named the new chairman.
For several years, Ralco has been pursuing both SUAL and Vekselberg's holding Renova through the Russian courts, alleging they contrived the takeover of the Volgograd plant, using false-front companies that have since disappeared; forgery of documents presented in the Russian courts; false testimony; and fraudulent share transactions. The Russian authorities have investigated and substantiated some of Ralco's evidence, but Russian court rulings in Ralco's favour have been impossible to pursue, because the culprit companies have disappeared, or are empty of assets. International litigation to go after the alleged culprits has been in preparation instead.
The Volgograd smelter is an important asset in the merger deal between SUAL and Rusal. That deal officially closed, according to an announcement from the two companies, on March 27. Vekselberg was quoted by Rusal last week as claiming the new company "will promote a world class corporate governance structure, enabling us to meet the highest international standards..."
First built in 1959, and upgraded since then, aluminium production from Volgograd is estimated to account for 17% of SUAL's pre-merger output. In the merged Rusal, it comprises at least 4% of metal production. At the start of 2005, Renova, Vekselberg's personal holding company, announced the takeover of the smelter by SUAL: "The process of incorporating OAO Volgograd Aluminium (VgAZ) into OAO SUAL Group has been completed," Renova's website says. "On 31 December 2004 VgAZ became a subsidiary of OAO SUAL. The incorporation of VgAZ was the final step in consolidating the aluminium assets that followed an agreement signed between SUAL Group and the management company, SevZapProm, in December 2002. Under the agreement, VgAZ and the subsidiaries of OAO Metallurg, Volkhov Aluminium and Pikalevo Alumina, were integrated into the SUAL Group production chain two years ago. In 2004 OAO SUAL was re-organised to integrate these companies. On 30 September 2004, Volkhov Aluminium and Pikalevo Alumina became subsidiaries of OAO SUAL."

"The re-organisation of OAO SUAL and integration of VgAZ was based on a decision taken at an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of shareholders on 31 August 2004. An absolute majority at the meeting voted in favour of the incorporation of VgAZ into OAO SUAL. On 15 December 2004, an amended charter was adopted at an EGM of OAO SUAL's shareholders to reflect this re-organisation. On 31 December 2004 the Uniform State Register noted the termination of activities at VgAZ. This formal procedure finalised the consolidation of OAO SUAL Group and VgAZ, its eighth subsidiary."
That states the legal position in Russia, as Vekselberg sees it, and also Gilbertson. Ralco's position in the Russian courts has won rulings from the bench, and Ralco sees the legal position differently. This is a challenge to the plans Vekselberg and Deripaska have announced to publicly list and sell their shares in the London IPO. Investment bankers claim the new company should hit a valuation of $30 billion.
Ralco has identified Gilbertson and Vekselberg, along with two others linked to both SUAL and Renova; plus 18 companies that fall under Russian, US and UK jurisdiction.
Ralco charges that its 17% stake in the Volgograd smelter was first diluted illegally, and then taken in a regional court case far from Moscow, when debts and evidence were fabricated, and the judge misled, while Ralco was kept in the dark, and "represented" at a court hearing by an impostor paid by Ralco's attackers. Ralco estimates the value of its stake at more than $40 million, and it has the option to seek treble damages if it can prove racketeering.
A string of two Russian and one Cyprus-registered companies has also been identified as participating in the alleged scheme to convert Ralco's shares into SUAL property in the months just before Gilbertson took office, and in the following six months.
Gilbertson acknowledged in mid-2005, almost a year after he took over at SUAL, that he was aware of the Volgograd smelter case and the Ralco claims. He said he was appointing a new legal counsel at SUAL to look into the affair. Maxim Goldman took this position in July 2005.
In November 2004, after Gilbertson's engagement and following a Volgograd regional court ruling, which had invalidated the dilution of Ralco's shareholding, SUAL had said through a spokesman: "concerning Volgograd Aluminium, we are sure our partners are in the right. Beyond this, we do not wish to add anything further."
That's as kosher as Tevye the Milkman could have wished for - unless it's wishful thinking.

Rimtalay

14th-April-2007, 06:13 PM

kerosam

14th-April-2007, 06:57 PM

just out of curiousity... will management play games to keep the share price low for a convenient take-over price? Management seems to be on Gilbertson's side. i think there is a possibility that management is witholding any positive news of the company... in a asx-compliance sense of course. ;)

any rumours out there about a second buyer??? ;)

noirua

14th-April-2007, 10:08 PM

Numis Securities ConsMins EX UK broker has upgraded further in just a week from 1.26pound UK to 1.46 pound UK. Thats AUD$3.37

"* Numis has upgraded Consolidated Minerals to buy from add with a 146p target"

Hi, The targets you mention are quite interesting. Consolidated Minerals (CNM) closed in London on Friday at £1.085 and that is just 0.5p off their six month high.

Rimtalay

15th-April-2007, 06:52 PM

This story is from www.minweb.com to see the full story go to the link below.

ConsMin management are trying to keep the good news quiet.
I have emailed them many times about the prices that I am getting for chrome and manganese from Chinese Metal traders, ConsMin management say that they are happy with their position and consider that they are not breaking the ASX disclosure rules, but they are definitely stretching them.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=19348&sn=Detail

SHAREHOLDER OPPOSITION
Gilbertson’s initial bid for ConsMin may be holed
Investor resistance and a strong share price may force Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources to raise its bid for Australian miner Consmin.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Apr 2007

PERTH -

Brian Gilbertson's good ship Pallinghurst Resources may be heading for the shoals in its takeover bid for the West Australian manganese, chromite and nickel miner Consolidated Minerals Ltd.

There has been mounting shareholder opposition to the bid - complete with a dedicated anti-takeover website -- and the rising share price is adding another negative.

ConsMin's share price on the Australian Stock Exchange today was $A2.63 ($US2.16) and the Pallinghurst offer was $A1.38/share ($US1.13/share) plus two shares in the new Consmin for every five shares held, with shareholders receiving a 40% stake in the new company. Pallinghurst wants to gain a minimum 50.1%. At the time ConsMin (whose board is supporting the Pallinghurst bid) said the transaction valued the company at an enterprise value of $A625 million ($US515), or at $A2.28/share ($US1.87/share).

One Perth stockbroking firm assessed that the market value today of the Pallinghurst package was $A2.30/share ($US1.89/share) which, with market unknowns, does not make it attractive compared to the raw share price, which has been lifting through improved production performances and a soaring nickel price. The Intierra group's Minmet research service put the market capitalisation of ConsMin today at $A595.2 M ($US490.7 M).

Alex Passmore, Head of Metals & Mining for Paterson Securities, who felt the bid was heading for the rocks, believes Pallinghurst must increase the offer.

kerosam

15th-April-2007, 07:58 PM

If this is true, and the Gilbertson-led bid & take-over is not successful, then this present management has got to go... :mad:

noirua

15th-April-2007, 10:16 PM

Pallinghurst will probably play this one out in a similar manner to Cemex in their bid for Rinker Group. Just leave the bid on the table and wait and see if a rival bidder turns up. If no rival appears on the scene, then the cash part of the offer will be raised to give a price at the bottom end of estimates. It's as simple as that.

Rimtalay

16th-April-2007, 01:43 PM

MINING NEWS JUST OUT, I will post the whole story as I cannot link to it, as you must be a member to read it.

MINING NEWS - JUST OUT NOW

Takeover bid still a goer: ConsMin :dead:

Paul Garvey
Monday, 16 April 2007

CONSOLIDATED Minerals managing director Rod Baxter has again defended the bid of Brian Gilbertson's Pallinghurst Resources, following claims from the company's ex-advisor that the bid was "heading for the rocks".

Numis Securities, which was the broker and nominated advisor regulating ConsMin's London listing before its sudden resignation soon after the Pallinghurst deal was announced, said on Friday it had upgraded its target price for ConsMin to 146p, or around $A3.65.

"Brian Gilbertson and the team at Pallinghurst may need to revise their offer for Consolidated Minerals as the shares rise above the effective 96p ($2.40) offer," Numis said.

Pallinghurst – headed by former BHP Billiton head Gilbertson – is offering $1.38 cash plus two shares in the new ConsMin for every five currently held. The per-share value of the bid, which had a notional value of $2.28 per share when it was launched, was $2.448 in morning trade based on the current price of $2.67.

Speaking to MiningNews.net, Baxter said he did not agree with Numis' suggestion that the Pallinghurst bid was in trouble, adding that a recent road show through Australia, North America and Europe had met with a favourable response, particularly from larger institutional investors.

In addition, Baxter pointed out that the two-for-five share component of the offer meant shareholders could participate in the upside of the new ConsMin.

"That was the whole essence of this transaction," Baxter said.

"We wanted to give shareholders exposure to the upside in the ConsMin growth story going forward. As the share price moves up as people become more comfortable with the offer, the value of the offer also rises."

Baxter added that both Gilbertson and Hans Mende – the head of private coal group AMCI, Pallinghurst's partner in the ConsMin bid – would be arriving in Australia soon for another series of road shows to Australian investors.

Baxter also dismissed suggestions that the market update issued by the company on the Thursday afternoon before the Easter break was a response to mounting pressure from the shareholders behind a website urging ConsMin investors to vote against the Pallinghurst offer.

The Consolidated Minerals Takeover – Vote No website has used reported rallies in the manganese and chromite markets as justification for its opposition to the bid.

However, Baxter said the market update was consistent with its continuous disclosure policies.

"We consistently said when the new management took over we would continue to look at our ongoing disclosure obligations, and share with our shareholders what's happening with the company," Baxter said.

Baxter said that a fall in manganese stockpiles in China had driven a slow uptick in the manganese market, although that had been partially countered by rising shipping costs and a strengthening Australian dollar.

ConsMin is increasing FOB manganese prices to rise by 8-10% on the $US2.09/dmtu received in the first half of financial 2007.

Chromite prices, meanwhile, are now expected to increase by around 6% on the $US148/t received in the first half.

ConsMin shares were up 2c to $2.67 in morning trade today.

ozambersand

20th-April-2007, 04:55 PM

Here's an update on this saga (which has gone quiet of late!)

Warwick acquires ConsMins gold, chromite projects
20-April-07 by Edited announcement

West Perth-based minerals explorer Warwick Resources Ltd will acquire eight tenements adjoining its gold and chromite projects, from Allarrow Pty Ltd and Consolidated Minerals Ltd subsidiary Pilbara Chromite Pty Ltd, through a scrip issue.

The company will acquire five tenements adjoining its Jimblebar gold project, along with 20 per cent interest in Pilbara Chromite, for 400,000 Warwick shares.

It will also acquire 3 tenements from Allarrow that adjoining its West Coobina chromite project, for 350,000 Warwick shares.

Warwick shares closed yesterday at 29 cents, up 16 per cent.

They were trading today at 29.5 cents at 11:20 WST

Will this have any bearing on the proposed take-over of CSM? :confused:

I am also confused about the Appendix 3B posting from 11/4. Why have a stack of options been cancelled? I note no names have been linked with it.

Rimtalay

20th-April-2007, 08:05 PM

Hi, I doubt whether the deal with Warwick Resources will have any impact with the Pallinghurst Resources deal with ConsMin. Although sounds like ConsMin will pick up $1.5 million on the deal ( 400,000 shares in Warwick).
I do think however the deal with Allarrow P/L for the exploration tenements that host Chromite ore whilst a low grade could be profitable. You might already note ConsMin is the only chromite miner in Australia. Chrome ore is rocketing in China due to the export tax of US$44/ton imposed by the Indian Gov't on Chrome ore.
ConsMin is making $$$$ on Chrome ore at present. This is from Chinese metal trading websites. Includes chromite and manganese details.
www.metal-pages.com 19th April 07
Chrome ore surges to new high
European Mn market consolidates gains
European manganese spot prices have been relatively steady in the past week after a strong bull run that has seen the market more than double in price since the start of the year, dealers told Metal-Pages today. Manganese flake prices are around $4,300-4,600/tonne.
www.asianmetal.com 19th April 07
Higher offers on Chinese manganese ore market 2007-4-19 10:54:08
Chromium metal prices firm in India 2007-4-19 11:39:39
FeCr demand still strong in India 2007-4-19 10:53:21
Mn alloys market out of control in India 2007-4-19 9:11:45
Ferromanganese market firming up 2007-4-19 8:51:04
Chinese FeCr producers raise prices further 2007-4-19 8:46:02
FERRO-ALLOYS Japan Q2 ferrochrome at record high of 90c [2007-04-17]
FERRO-ALLOYS Prices of Domestic Chrome Market Increased Totally [2007-04-17]
FERRO-ALLOYS The Influence of Chrome Price on SS Enterprises Is Limited [2007-04-17]
ORES&CONCENTRATES Global Chrome Ore Price Soaring [2007-04-17]

wintermute

21st-April-2007, 03:09 PM

I am also confused about the Appendix 3B posting from 11/4. Why have a stack of options been canceled? I note no names have been linked with it.

I suspect that an employee resigned, or was terminated, and their employee bonus options were canceled (I think they were unlisted weren't they)...

Tony.

ta2693

22nd-April-2007, 05:43 PM

You might already note ConsMin is the only chromite miner in Australia.

:confused:

Are you sure?

As far as I know, there is another one: BHP.

Rimtalay

23rd-April-2007, 07:24 AM

Hi ta2693, Consolidated Minerals has the only chromite ore mine in Australia, as it has the only economical chromite deposit 42% Cr2O3, that has been discovered in Australia.
Warwick Resources has announced that it has now secured the West Coobina Chromite leases, but the grade is low, only 16% Cr2O3, and whilst it is possible to upgrade the ore, it does become more expensive.
Chromite ore has gone ballistic in China, mostly because they don't have much themeselves except for deposits at Norbusa and Donchao which are in Tibet. These deposits are becoming more viable since the openning of the railway line to Tibet last year. However China needs a lot of Chrome ore for its stainless steel factories, even with the low grade stainless steel , ie 'crap' 200 series they need manganese and chromite.
South Africa has the largest deposits, and yes BHP have some mines there, Xstrada etc. The next largest deposits are in Kazakhstan , at Donskol. Turkey and India also export Chrome ore.
The Indian Gov't has introduced a US$44/ton export tax on chrome ore. The South African Gov't is imposing a total ban on unbeneficated chrome ore.
AS a result chrome ore is up 100%. Consolidated Minerals should be starting to make a killing. The management either
(A) stupid and don't know that chromite has gone up 100% and are still selling it at the old price.
OR (B) they are making heaps and do not want to tell the market in case the shareprice goes up and the Pallinghurst Resources takeover deal is dead.
I would think it is (B) and remember that Consolidated Minerals produce 250,000 tons and at an extra $100/ton adds an extra $25 million profit.;)

Rimtalay

23rd-April-2007, 08:30 AM

ConsMin don't forget about NICKEL 200,000 tons of conatained nickel at 1% cut-off worth $12 billion.
KITCOMETALS (http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/nickel-d.gif)

Rimtalay

24th-April-2007, 05:37 PM

News story re Gilbertson's takeover of ConsMin. I will post the full story as its a subscriber story.

CONSOLIDATED MINING
From outpost to outback
By Brendan RyanExpect the present management to be working to a new strategy
Having made piles of money for SA, Australian, British, Indian and Russian investors - not to mention himself - Brian Gilbertson has now picked an obscure Australian nickel producer as his next growth vehicle.

The company is Consolidated Minerals (Consmin), listed on the Australian stock exchange and London's AIM bourse.

Gilbertson is bidding for control through a private investment company - Pallinghurst Resources - which he runs with Arne Frandsen, the former CEO of Incwala Resources.

WHAT IT MEANS
Consmin should fill an investment void left by takeovers
Big plans to build up a small operator

Consmin MD Rod Baxter is ex-Anglo American, though he has just taken out Aussie citizenship, and two executives, Garth Higgo and Alistair Croll, are former Anglo Platinum executives who recently emigrated to Australia.

If the deal goes through, Gilbertson will join the Consmin board as a non executive director. Frandsen will move to Perth to become executive director responsible for strategy. The existing Consmin management team will stay.

Gilbertson and Frandsen go way back, through involvement in deals in Frandsen's investment banking days at JP Morgan. Gilbertson helped create Incwala.

Consmin documentation indicates Gilbertson began negotiating the deal in October last year. At that time he had just finalised the merger of Russian aluminum producers Sual and Rusal, and he told the FM (Features October 13 2006) that he would be staying on to oversee the listing of the merged group on the London Stock Exchange.

After that it seemed retirement would beckon, as he was pushing 65. "I must say, retirement at Plettenberg Bay looks very appealing," he said at the time. Not any more - he's now committed to involvement with Consmin for three years. Gilbertson acknowledges he would like to get more of a balance between his business and personal lives, but concedes it's something he has not been good at. So why carry on? Is it the challenge? The money? "Both. I get a kick out doing this," replies Gilbertson, who has already cleaned up on share option payouts after his stints at BHP Billiton, Vedanta and Sual.

His departure from all three groups has been controversial. The conspiracy theorists are now speculating about a fallout between Gilbertson and his former Russian backer, Victor Vekselberg, who was the major shareholder in Sual. But there is also speculation that Vekselberg is one of the investors in Pallinghurst. "He may be," replies Gilbertson, who declines to name all the investors in Pallinghurst.

Consmin operates small manganese, chrome and nickel mines and plants in Western Australia, with an active iron ore exploration and development programme. It also has interests in copper, zinc and tungsten.

Consmin believes it could consolidate a number of small iron ore players in the midwest region of Western Australia.

Higgo says the intention is to transform Consmin into a "midtier" mining group over three to five years, filling an investment void created by takeovers of groups like North, MIM, Normandy and WMC.

The obvious question is whether Consmin will go the same way. Not easily, Higgo replies, given the size of the controlling block held by Pallinghurst, even though this may be diluted over time.

Pallinghurst is a joint venture investment vehicle based in London, backed by privately owned resource group AMCI, which has a co-investment arrangement with Pallinghurst.

AMCI holds investments world wide, including large coal interests in Australia. It has just sold some of these coal assets to CVRD and it seems likely the remaining coal assets could go to Consmin. AMCI cofounder Hans Mende will also be joining the Consmin board.

Gilbertson says Consmin is the second of "between five and 10 " investment opportunities Pallinghurst is looking for. Pallinghurst's first deal was to buy the rights to the Fabergé brand name.

Asked where he will be based, Gilbertson says: "London, SA, Australia - wherever it makes sense to be." One place it will not be is Moscow; Gilbertson sounds relieved to be out of the bitter Russian winter and back at his house in Plett.

Sainter

25th-April-2007, 03:30 PM

An article in today's West suggesting a private equity group led by UBS and Goldman Sachs JB Were is believed to be running the ruler over CSM. Speculation also suggests they might try to lure Michael Kiernan back.
It can't be any worse than the cr@# Gilbertson and Baxter are trying to force us to accept. And besides an increased offer, ousting Baxter would be the next best thing that could happen from a shareholder perspective.

Rimtalay

25th-April-2007, 05:31 PM

Private equity group mulls move on ConsMin :D :D :D

25th April 2007, 9:00 WST

A private equity consortium led by investment banks UBS and Goldman Sachs JBWere is believed to be running the numbers on WA miner Consolidated Minerals to counter Brian Gilbertson’s floundering $320 million partial takeover offer.

The former BHP Billiton chief’s Pallinghurst Resources is seeking a 60 per cent stake in a revamped ConsMin via a friendly cash and scrip offer notionally valuing the miner at $2.28 a share.

But the offer has failed to gain traction due to its lack of any control premium and the expectation that the deal will have to be sweetened to succeed.

That has kept ConsMin shares, which yesterday eased 4¢ to $2.50, well above the notional offer price since it was unveiled in February.

Against that backdrop, industry sources said the two banks were working on a potential rival deal backed by fresh private equity funding from Australian and overseas investors.

UBS and Goldman Sachs JBWere declined to comment.

But on Monday, Goldman Sachs coincidentally raised $415 million to launch a new Australasian private equity fund with a “mid-market focus looking at deals of around $100 million to $500 million”.

Rumour suggests any rival offer may include splitting ConsMin’s underground nickel mining operations from its open pit mines in the Pilbara for sale to new operators.

Speculation also suggests the proponents may seek to lure back ousted ConsMin founder Michael Kiernan to take charge of the Pilbara operations, which account for 10 per cent of the world’s manganese supplies.

ConsMin’s share price plunged after Mr Kiernan quit over a pay dispute in late 2005 and the company has since struggled in the face of volatile manganese prices and difficulties at its nickel mines.

But manganese and chromite prices have rebounded strongly, and nickel prices have blasted past $US50,000 a tonne since Pallinghurst began negotiating with ConsMin in October.

Yet Pallinghurst has refused to budge from its initial offer of $1.38 a share in cash, plus two shares in a new ConsMin for every five shares held in the current company. The new Cons-Min would be 60 per cent owned by Pallinghurst and bid partner AMCI Holdings.

Mr Gilbertson will return to Australia next month for an investor roadshow but faces a tough task convincing wavering investors to accept.

“The clock is well and truly ticking, and Brian desperately has to pull a rabbit out of the hat,” one source said yesterday. “At the end of the day, if someone comes up with a reasonable alternative, it may be all over.”

A ConsMin spokesman said the company did not comment on “market speculation”.

ta2693

25th-April-2007, 09:59 PM

That is a very good news. It is very interesting to see the performance of this stock next week.
My understanding of this sentence "UBS and Goldman Sachs JBWere declined to comment" = acquiescence
Do you agree?
Rim - Thanks for your sharing and continuing studying of this one.:)

Rimtalay

26th-April-2007, 07:41 PM

STRONG SPECULATION www.mineweb.net (http://www.mineweb.net)Does Gilbertson have a rival for Consolidated Minerals?
A competing bid by a grouping of financial institutions is thought to be on the cards for Consmin – already the subject of a bid from Brian Gilbertson-led Pallinghurst.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Wednesday , 25 Apr 2007

PERTH -

Now that the Australian sharemarket has started going cold on the Pallinghurst bid for control of manganese, chromite and nickel miner Consolidated Minerals Ltd, there is warm speculation of a competing bid that may certainly put Brian Gilbertson off his Corn Flakes.

Mineweb reported early this month -- after the share price of ConsMin had begun to lift -- that the Brian Gilbertson-led Pallinghurst bid for the company was now looking unattractive and that brokers felt Gilbertson would have to sweeten the bid.

However, there are now suggestions of a counter bid, with Western Australia's daily newspaper The West Australian reporting that a private equity group was now eyeing ConsMin.

According to the report international investment banks UBSS and Goldman Sachs JBWere were running numbers on ConsMins to counter "Brian Gilbertson's floundering $A320 million ($US266 M) partial takeover offer."

Today was ANZAC Day, a public holiday to commemorate Australian and New Zealand soldiers who have fallen at wars beginning with the disastrous assault on Gallipoli in World War I. Though trading of ConsMin shares on Tuesday finished down A4 cents to $A2.50 ($US2.08) it was still mathematically well above the Pallinghurst offer.

What helped fan the speculation of a Goldman Sachs JBWere move was a raising at the beginning of this week by that Melbourne-based firm linked to one of North America's biggest banking and broking houses of $A415 M ($US345.3 M) to reportedly look at "mid market" deals, a category into which ConsMin falls.

As Mineweb indicated there is strong speculation that anyone targeting ConsMin may look at hiving off the Beta Hunt nickel mining operations in Kambalda, given that other new nickel miners who picked up mines in that area are making spectacular profits with the high nickel price, and their low operating costs.

Pallinghurst's bid has set a minimum target of 50.1% and when launched had the support of the ConsMin board.

Reportings to the Australian Stock Exchange to trading close on Tuesday showed that ConsMin is yet to release its March quarter report, and this will have a big bearing on the share price and the Pallinghurst relationship and whether Gilbertson's appetite is whet to lift the bid or whether the cited private equity group would make a move.

Rimtalay

26th-April-2007, 09:30 PM

When the bid by Pallinghurst Resources was announced in Feb 07 the company stated that the scheme documentation would be sent to shareholders in mid April 07, and voted on in mid May 07. For no good reason this has been extended till June 07 and voted on in July 07.
Many shareholders have indicated that this delay is not acceptable .

ConsMin shareholders, please advise your feelings on this delay.
We are planning a detailed submission to the ASX and ASIC

Rimtalay

27th-April-2007, 02:01 PM

MINING FINANCE & INVESTMENT ( I will post full story as you may not be able access it)
SURVIVING RUSSIAN ALUMINIUM
Gilbertson’s retreat from Moscow – more hot than cold
The big South African prepares resourceful counterattack.

Author: John Helmer
Posted: Wednesday , 25 Apr 2007

MOSCOW -

Brian Gilbertson was the most important international executive ever to work for a Russian corporation, when he moved to Moscow in August 2004, signing on as president of Siberian Ural Aluminium (SUAL), a mining and metals company. He still is, but that's because no-one of comparable importance has followed him, either on the smooth road into Moscow, or on the bumpy one out.

The Gilbertson appointment, accompanied by published hints of a 50 million-sterling bonus, was also Victor Vekselberg's biggest catch, in his attempt to take his second-string private company to a public listing on the London Stock Exchange. Vekselberg is one of Russia's richest men; and also one of those to be found on the defendants' list in court cases alleging he had lifted someone else's assets. At the end of March, Gilbertson parted company with Vekselberg.

Behind Gilbertson's back, Vekselberg told Russians he was more than unhappy with the big South African. For one thing, Gilbertson had proved unable to generate market support for the SUAL float on which Vekselberg had been counting. Never mind that it had been President Vladimir Putin himself, who told Vekselberg last September that Vekselberg would not be allowed to take his company public by itself. Instead, Vekselberg has had to accept a 23% stake in a merger with his rival Oleg Deripaska's Russian Aluminium (Rusal). Initially, Gilbertson was slated to be the representative of that stake as non-executive chairman of the new company. Gilbertson also reportedly tried winning Deripaska over with the prospect of a takeover bid for Anglo American.

But when the Kremlin, Deripaska, and Vekselberg agreed among themselves that the chairman of the new Rusal had to be Russian, and Vekselberg himself took the seat, Gilbertson had nothing left to do in Moscow, but to claim his bonus. Vekselberg said no. Unlike several of his argumentative predecessors in the Russian aluminium business, who have ended up in hiding, in prison, or in a body bag, Gilbertson was allowed to leave in one piece.

Apparently, for Vekselberg will not corroborate the details, and Gilbertson is still biding his time before spilling the beans, the bonus was just one of several arguments between them. Another - which Vekselberg's subordinates claim to be still in negotiation with Gilbertson - concerned Gilbertson's new global investment vehicle, Pallinghurst Resources (PR). Registered on a Caribbean island, and headquartered in London, PR has already opened a cash and scrip bid to take over the West Australian multi-mineral miner, Consolidated Minerals (ConsMin). In his opening offer, Gilbertson said that Pallinghurst is backed by a billion dollars of "equity commitments". Vekselberg is now claiming to his associates that not a penny of that will be his.

A third argument, which Gilbertson's son Sean has corroborated, is over what was intended to be a profitable development of Faberge, the trademark of the royal Russian jeweller a century ago. This was put on sale last year by Unilever for $40 million. Alrosa said it wasn't worth more than $5 million. Vekselberg had in mind to buy cheap, and resell to Alrosa, cutting others into the deal proceeds, if he succeeded. But Pallinghurst jumped in first, buying Faberge for a price that has queered Vekselberg's scheme.

When he took over at SUAL, Gilbertson conceded there was much he didn't know about how Vekselberg and his associates had put together the bauxite mines, alumina refineries, and aluminium smelters which had become SUAL's assets. Gilbertson appointed his own lawyer to investigate whether any wrong had been done, especially in the case of the Volgograd Aluminium Plant, an asset which was consolidated on to SUAL's balance-sheet several months after Gilbertson took charge - and legal responsibility. For a dispossessed shareholder in that smelter had already won Russian court rulings supporting his claim to have been robbed. The Volgograd claim has since been reviewed by international lawyers, and as Vekselberg moved towards a London listing, so has the prospective jurisdiction for a hearing on the allegations.

In more promising days, it was Gilbertson who introduced Vekselberg in South Africa, and encouraged him to make promises of black empowerment cash, and a billion dollars of investment besides. Those promises landed Vekselberg a warm seat on President Thabo Mbeki's international investment advisory council. Vekselberg's wife decided that she wanted to buy the Cape wine farm and hostelry, Vrede en Lust, while her husband's involvement in funding ANC front companies has been under hot investigation for several months.

Rimtalay

30th-April-2007, 09:57 PM

Consolidation, then growth
Clive Henley
April 30, 2007 12:00am
THROUGHOUT its long history on the stock exchange Consolidated Minerals - first listing in 1969 - has kept a relatively low profile.
It has survived a number of market booms and busts. A new chapter in its history is unfolding now with a scheme of arrangement on the table.
The proposal by British-based Pallinghurst and AMCI is to form a new ASX-listed resource company.
Shareholders in CSM have been offered $1.38 and two shares in the new company for every five CSM shares. This offer equates to around $2.30 per CSM share.
It is opportunistic and well timed, coming as it does after a 2006 profit impacted by depressed manganese prices. It also does not reflect an adequate premium for a change in control at CSM.
The company mines manganese and chromite near Port Hedland in Western Australia and nickel at Kambalda. Like nickel, manganese and chromite are raw materials for carbon and stainless steel.
CSM also has a 20 per cent interest in the Jaguar copper project near Leonora and an iron ore project in a joint venture with Fortescue Metals.
Following a loss in fiscal 2006 earnings are set to jump this year. Forecast earnings for 2007 equate to 17.6 per share with a dividend of 4 forecast placing the stock on a 1.6 per cent yield at prices around $2.50.
Forecasts for the 2008 financial year are for earnings per share of 39.8; a prospective price to earnings ratio of a low 6.3 times.
The injection of new blood into the company appears a definite positive.
Pallinghurst Resources is a natural resources investment vehicle chaired by Brian Gilbertson (ex-BHP Billiton).
From a technical standpoint the price action in recent times shows that the shares suffered a steady decline in line with retreating earnings in 2005-06.
From a high of $4.40 in August 2005, a low of $1.60 was reached in June 2006. Things have since improved.
First, in October last the downtrend was broken following a strong rally to $2.50.
This, when combined with the fact that the target from the top of $1.80 had been met and exceeded last June, is a bullish sign.
Recently a new high at $2.70 represented the breakout of a base pattern with a short term target of $3.80 and possible longer term target of $4.80.
Some recent weakness is finding support at $2.50 which appeals as an attractive purchase point with those willing to take some risk.
- Clive Henley is a technical analyst/adviser at Tolhurst Noal. clive.henley@tolhurst.com.au:D

Rimtalay

3rd-May-2007, 09:19 AM

If you read the latest Bell Potter research document http://www.usail2.com/CSM_070427%20Bell%20potter.pdf you will be horrified to see that these dimwits either can't add up or have a $100 million typo in their research. I hope your not paying this pack of clowns for information. They show a downgraded FY07 annual sales revenue of $186.9 million when it should show an upgraded $280 million. see the Consolidated Minerals Vote No website http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_updates.htm

Sainter

3rd-May-2007, 10:54 PM

From the VOTE NO website-CSM shareholdings in other companies
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_assets.htm

NAME; No of SHARES HELD; % OF COMPANY; SHARE PRICE; TOTAL VALUE
JABIRU, 117,787,353; 31.73%; $1.245; $146,645,254
BC IRON; 15,000,000; 28%; $1.55, $23,250,000
MITHRIL; 7,115,000; 19.99%; 0.435c; $3,095,025
REED RES; 12,300,000; 17.75%; 0.495c; $6,088,500
VITAL METALS;11,105,150; 13.74%; 0.74c; $8,217,811

LAST UPDATED 3rd May 07 Total Value $187,296,590.00

So, that means CSM market cap currently $568M-almost a third is made up of other companies which Baxter can't fudge the values on or deliberately talk down their prospects.

You could argue then that CSM's profit from its Ni, chromium and manganese assets are from the smaller capital base of $381M.

My conservative H2 projections, based on info from CSM announcements, are as follows:
Mn income (AFTER mining costs) $18.9M
Cr income(AFTER mining costs) $25.1M
Ni income(AFTER mining costs) $32.7M (based on reduced target of 4000 tpa)
SUM $76.7M

Assume admin expenses of $30M, as it was in H2 '05 and H1'06.

NPBT $46.7M

Tax@30% = $14.0M

NPAT $32.7M, or 14.4 cps.
Remember this is projected H2 profit only. For full year, add $10.2M = $42.9 and PER 14.
PER 14 is not great, but H1 was average. If PER based on 2*H2, PER = 9.2.
Don't forget these are conservative numbers, chromium and manganese are jumping up in price, Ni will not be hedged come next FY, and more Ni should be produced as they reach richer orebodies.

To put it in perspective, 4000t Ni @US$45k/t and exch rate of 83c and cash cost A$7.5 per payable pound gives income AFTER mining & smelting costs of A$88M. If they can ramp up to 6000 tpa (should not be too hard given they projected 5000 tpa this year and 15000 tpa by 2009-11), this becomes A$132M. And this does not include Mn or Cr.

$2.28 a share? Gimme a break!

noirua

3rd-May-2007, 11:29 PM

This looks to be a continuing ongoing saga and some may be wiser to exit this stock on the next speculative uplift.

There is a two way thought into the Board of CSM accepting and recommending the offer. At least a fortune isn't being spent on defending the bid.

So far no one else is interested in CSM and this will lower expectations and the level of the raised bid, if and when it comes.

When working out a value for a particular mine or project there is the risk factor to be added in and this markedly reduces the value of an asset. Maybe from 10% to 50% with financing a big factor but by no means always the biggest.

Rimtalay

4th-May-2007, 07:48 AM

Rimtalay

4th-May-2007, 08:54 AM

Nickel ,
A) for the March Quarter we have 493 payable tons at US$11.10/lb and using AUD$1 to US0.82 ie. Total $14.68 million . Balance of the March Quarter production is 473 payable tons at AUD$24.84 /lb Total $25.89 million.

Total nickel =$40.54 million x 65% ( allowing the 35% BHP offtake agreement)= $24.93 million less the $35/ton conversion fee = TOTAL $26.31 million

B) For the last quarter we have 180 payable tons (hedged) @US$13.52 = AUD$6.53 million

Balance of production 820 tons at the spot price. ( my guess US$23.00/lb , this month so far the average is US$22.79/lb)

820 tons at US$23/lb = AUD$50.6 million

Total April-June $57.13 million x 65% = $37.13 million – conversion fee

Total = $37.1 million.

C)First half was $30.4 million

FY07 Nickel =$26.31 +$37.1 + $30.4 = $93.81 million

SO WE HAVE FY07 Annual sales of $93.81 million
FY07 EBITDA =$40 million (first 1/2 year $11.5 million)

Rimtalay

4th-May-2007, 08:55 AM

Manganese,
using the Dec ½ year report we have a production of 471,606 tons for a revenue of AUD$63.7 million = AUD$135/ton. In the March quarterly report Mr Baxter says that the increases in manganese prices will add 10% onto the FY07 revenue, just a tricky way of downplaying what is essentially a 20% increase , so using this increase AUD$135 x 10% = $148.50. If we use the yearly production target of say 910,000 tons we will have a
total FY07 revenue of AUD $135.1 million.
less cash costs $2.25/dmtu =$108/ton
$108 x 910,000 = $98.2 million
EDITDA FY07 = $36.9 million ( half year $13.9 million)
2nd half is more than double due to huge increase in Mn price.

Rimtalay

4th-May-2007, 08:55 AM

Chrome ore,
it was an excellent production result for the March quarter and therefore on target to produce 250,000 tons. If we use the Dec ½ year report we have a production of 126,015 tons for a revenue of AUD$25.1 million = AUD$200/ton. In Mr Baxter’s March update and the March quarterly report he indicated a 6% increase in the FY07 revenue. Ie. AUD$200 x 6% = $212. If we use the production target of 250,000 x $212/ton we will have a total revenue of AUD $53 million.
WOW FY07 AUD $53 million for chrome ore
cash costs AUD$122.43 X 250,000 =$30.6 million
EBITDA =$22.4 million ( 1st half $9.8 million this was already a 42% increase)

noirua

4th-May-2007, 10:43 AM

Have you seen the Vote NO website (http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover.htm)
ConsMin currently has $187 million in other companies in shares JML,BCI,MTH,RDR,VML that is 83c per share before we start on 200,000 tons of nickel at US$23/lb. ($12 billion) There is 30 million ton of manganese as they upgrade the resources and reserves with the new discoveries. Chromite is at an all time high, and what about Mindy Mindy iron ore.
The bid will not pass without a price close to $3/share, we have some shareholders currently running all the numbers, I'll start posting them soon, once we get all the information, ConsMin could be looking at profit of $60 million FY07, thats a 10% return on investment on a share price of $2.67, that's almost unheard of.
Hundreds of shareholders have contacted the Vote NO website and all but one person will vote NO, and the one YES vote did not leave their ID,I'm sure it was a Company Stooge, like Blue Bay Diver on ASF.

Hi, I must take up a point with you in the value of investments held by Consmin. There is no way you can value these at full market quotes. Like Investment Trusts and Funds these trade at a discount to asset value, for very many reasons, and I would put the value nearer 70 cents than 83 cents.

Also, you just can't value nickel and manganese on the basis of it all being piled up ready for sale.

When you say profit for 2007 being £60 million, is this before tax, after tax - EBIT, EBITDA etc., ?? Which ever way, the return is not really as exceptional as you portray, just good.

I agree the offer is too low and the cash element should be raised by about 30 cents.

Good Luck in your fine efforts.

Rimtalay

5th-May-2007, 09:39 AM

NICKEL HIT ANOTHER RECORD US$24/lb overnight 4th May 07 :D
Nickel May 04,13:24
Bid/Ask 23.9867 - 24.1228
Change +0.6660 +2.86%
Low/High 23.3207 - 24.1908

Rimtalay

8th-May-2007, 09:39 AM

CHROME ORE STILL INCREASING

We are now seeing reports that chromium is trying to get into the act. India's decision a few months back to add an export tax, and South Africa's clamp down on shipments of chromite ore, has forced China to scramble for supply. This had led to spotty shortages in Europe and North America, which in turn, has led to price increases.

Rimtalay

8th-May-2007, 09:42 AM

ConsMin sales and profit calculations - done by a group of shareholders
http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_stephen_thomas_garbage.htm
Shows a EBITDA of $113.66 million FY07
Final Dividend 8.25c/share minumum

Rimtalay

13th-May-2007, 03:11 PM

Battle Line For Sales Of Manganese Ore To China Becomes Abnormal
Tex report - subsciption issue-
= Spot Price Of Mn-Ore Has Risen To US$4.00 Per Mn 1% CIF, Anxiety For Shipments Of Ghanaian Ore
Spot price of manganese ore for China has risen steeply. It seems that the contract on high grade manganese ore ( with Mn 46 - 48% ) has been concluded at a higher price of US$4.00 per Mn 1% CIF China. The origin of this manganese ore is said as Australian ore.

The normal level of price for high grade manganese ore contracted with Chinese customers for shipments in April - June quarter of 2007 is in the range of US$3.70 - 3.80 CIF but these prices have risen to a considerable extent in comparison with US$2.80 - 3.00 CIF settled for shipments in January - March quarter of 2007.

On the other hand, Ghana has sold 584,000 tons of manganese ores for shipments to China in 2007 but an anxiety for shipments from Ghana has emerged. The buyer concerned said that Privat, having acquired the new ownership of manganese mine in Ghana ( Ghana Manganese Company ), notified the parties concerned to cancel the existing contracts. Therefore, the transitions to be seen hereafter are marked and a possibility to reduce the quantity of manganese ore to be exported from Ghana to China is not deniable, because Nikopol Ferro-Alloy Works of Ukraine, under management of Privat, is a major buyer of Ghanaian manganese ore ( imported 830,000 tons from Ghana in 2006 ).

The matter in question is that China imported 6,212,000 tons of manganese ore in 2006, which had a remarkable increase of 35% compared with that ( 4,580,000 tons ) imported in 2005. The averaged unit price of manganese ore imported into China in 2006 was US$104 per ton CIF as fallen from that ( US$149 ) in 2005. The reason, why the unit price of manganese ore imported into China in 2005 had risen to a nearer level to US$150 per ton CIF, was due to an aftereffect of the contracts concluded at a higher price than US$5.00 per Mn 1% CIF in 2004, when transactions to import manganese ore became a boom.

There is a strong possibility to materialize again an era of manganese ore in 2007 as recorded in 2004 to 2005. Namely, a tight supply of manganese ore is anticipated. As regards the world output of manganese ore in 2006, the production of high grade ore increased by 5% from that in 2005 but that of medium and low grade ores had a considerable decrease from that in 2005. Consequently, the total quantity of manganese ores produced in the world for 2006 came to 11.8 million tons ( on Mn content base ), having increased by only 2% compared to that for 2005. However, the world demand for manganese ore in 2006 increased by 4% from that in 2005 and this expansion of the demand complied with the world output of crude steel in 2006, which came to 1,314 million tons as increased by 3% compared to that in 2005.
As for the quantities of manganese ferro-alloys produced in the world for 2006, the production of silico-manganese increased by 17% and that of ferro-manganese also increased by 4 - 9% in comparison with those for 2005 and, in view of the matter which the world production of crude steel in 2007 is expected to continue a further expansion on a basic tone, the world demand for manganese is still in the direction to enlarge further. Therefore, the world demand for manganese ore in 2007 is anticipated to increase accordingly. On the other hand, by taking into account of price of US$5 per Mn 1% for manganese ore, the production of manganese ore in 2007 is supposed to turn to increase ( mainly to resume operations at idled manganese mines and to challenge again sales for exports ) but there is a big probability to arise a mismatch between supply and demand,

China is the country to face straightly a gap between decreasing supply and increasing demand. China produced 420 million tons of crude steel in 2006, having increased by 65 million tons from that in 2005, but is supposed to increase further their production of crude steel in 2007 by 50 - 60 million tons. Therefore, China will require more than 7 million tons per annum of manganese ore in 2007. The domestic production of manganese ore in China once reached a peak in 2005 but, after that, has inclined to decrease and the official data reported that the domestic production of manganese ore in 2006 had a decrease of 8% compared with that in 2005. Even the domestic production of manganese ore in China has arisen with a decline.

The quantity of manganese ore required by China in 2006 had an increase of approximately 20% on Mn content base but the demand for manganese ore from European countries and the USA in 2006 had a considerable decrease of more than 20%. Accordingly, an increase of the demand in China was offset by a decrease of the demand in the western countries and a margin to maintain a balance still existed. In addition, the accumulated stocks of manganese ore at wharfs ( supposedly more than one million tons ) caused by an excessive quantity of this ore imported into China in 2005 had functioned as a buffer for the sharply increased demand for manganese ore.

The price of manganese ore for China had still weakened in the first half of 2006 and that of medium grade ore ( including siliceous ore ) had been depressed to a level of US$2.20 - 2.30 per Mn 1% CIF China. In addition, ocean freight has risen steeply and, consequently, net price of manganese ore received by manganese mines was a loss for them. As a matter of fact, medium-class manganese mines in Australia suffered from a loss in their settlement of accounts for the first half of 2006.

When the supply and demand of manganese ore on a long run are looked over, the projects to increase production and to develop new mines are scarce. The projects to increase production of manganese ore have been restricted to the followings ; <> BHP Billiton's mine in Australia ( to increase from 3.20 million tons / year at present to 4.20 million tons / year in 2009 ), <> Eramet's mine in Gabon ( to produce 3.50 million tons / year in 2008 by an increase of 500,000 tons / year from that in 2006 ), <> Ghana Manganese Company's mine in Ghana ( to increase by 200,000 - 300,000 tons / year to 1.80 million tons / year in 2007 by means of improving the facilities at loading port ) and <> Local mine of northern territory in Australia launched to produce from autumn of 2006 ( on a scale of 500,000 tons / year ).

When price of manganese ore enters into an era of US$5 per Mn 1%, the Buritirama mine of Brazil ( to produce 500,000 - 600,000 tons / year ), having had once disappeared from the supply side in 2005 to 2006, has a possibility to resume the production but the quantity of manganese ore to be supplied by this Brazilian mine has been limited.

On the other hand, in order to cope with the difficulties to secure manganese ore, the Central Government of China is very likely to start out to control exports of manganese ferro-alloys from China and has already adopted from April of 2007 the system to set up floor prices for exports of manganese ferro-alloys in line with the regulations.
last modified : Tue 08 May, 2007 [11:05

Rimtalay

15th-May-2007, 08:49 PM

From the Metalsplace - subscription only
Manganese ore shortage may hit steel production
The domestic steel industry's plan to scale up production to 60 million tonnes by 2010 may take a hit as India is running low on key resources used in steel-making such as high grade manganese ore (with low phosphorus content) and ferro manganese ore.

The mining industry anticipates a huge demand-supply gap in manganese ore in the coming years. Both grades of manganese ore have separate uses in the steel industry. While the high grade manganese ore with low phosphorus content is one of the primary raw materials used in steel making, the ferro manganese ore goes into the production of ferro-alloy, which is another ingredient of steel making.

Ferro-alloys are used as alloying elements in the production of steel for modifying strength, ductility, hardness or corrosion resistance and to remove unwanted impurities such as phosphorous and sulphur. The ferro-alloy usage varies depending on the category of steel being produced.

"The reserves of high grade manganese ore with low phosphorus content are extremely low, while the ferro manganese reserves are around 27 million tonnes. The Indian steel industry will experience serious shortage of both grades of manganese ore in the next five years since manganese mining has not been promoted extensively in India," S B Chauhan, advisor to the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (Fimi) told Business Standard.

If India has to produce 60 million tonnes of steel by 2010, the requirement of manganese ore will be 2.71 million tonnes. At present, the manganese ore production in the country is around 1.92 million tonnes (including all grades). The steel output is around 47 million tonnes annually.

The total proven manganese ore deposits (including low grade, medium grade and high grade) in India is 104 million tonnes spread over Orissa, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa and Andhra Pradesh.

The public sector undertaking Manganese Ore India (MOIL) accounts for up to 60 per cent of the overall manganese production. During 2006-07, MOIL produced 611,000 tonnes of ferro manganese ore.

"If MOIL optimises production, it will not be in a position to meet the demand for both high grade ore and ferro manganese ore in 2010. If the Indian steel companies have to meet the projected production (60 million tonnes), they have no option other than importing manganese from South Africa, which has 80 per cent of world's manganese deposits," Chauhan pointed out.

Fimi has already appraised the government of the situation. "The government should promote the recovery of manganese ore by beneficiation and sintering.Exploration efforts must be intensified to find additional reserves of high grade ore," Chauhan said.

India produces low grade manganese ore, which is in demand in China. Low grade and medium grade manganese ore has usage in dry battery as depolarizer, paints, ceramics and micro nutrients.

There are a number of private mines that extract and export low grade and medium grade manganese ore to China, Pakistan, South Korea, Bangladesh, Japan and West Asian countries. But exports are very low, around 2.5 lakh tonnes per annum.

Rimtalay

16th-May-2007, 08:09 AM

ConsMin, they are NOW doing deals at US$4.00/dmtu CIF China and at 48% Mn this means US$192/ton. Shipping price from the Port Hedland to China now stands at US$35/ton. So FOB is US$157/ton or AUD$191.50/ton FOB
Cash costs from March Quarterly report AUD$2.25/dmtu or $108/ton. PROFIT $83.50/ton.
Production 910-920,000 FY07, and expected production of 960,000 tons FY08 = PROFIT $80.1 million.
If it goes to US$5.00/dmtu the profit goes to $137.7 million.
What about chrome ore and nickel.

Rimtalay

16th-May-2007, 01:06 PM

TEX report subsciption-

Price Of Chrome Ore For China Rises Steeply To Higher Level Than US$400 / Ton CIF
= Following A Sharp Rise Of Spot Price For High Carbon Ferro-Chrome
Owing to the increasing demand for chrome ore in China, the prices of chrome ores to be sold to China are rising steeply. According to an information from China, the price of medium grade lumpy chrome ore with 42% of Cr2O3 contracted to import into China, before the May Day in China started, had risen to US$370 per ton CIF but the new price of this grade chrome ore, as offered after the May Day was over, has risen further to a level of US$400 per ton CIF China.

Also, a level of the price for high grade chrome concentrate with 48% of Cr2O3 as contracted with China has already risen to US$420 per ton CIF China, having exceeded a level of US$400 CIF. The origin of this high grade chrome ore is said as an European product but supposedly specified to be Turkish chrome ore.

The transactions with Chinese importers on chrome ores have been concluded up to shipments by the end June of 2007 but, as of April of 2007, the standard levels of prices for metallurgical grade chrome ores contracted with Chinese importers for shipments from European sources are <> lumpy ore with 42% of Cr2O3 at US$370 per ton CIF, <> lumpy ore with 38% of Cr2O3 at US$360 CIF, <> lumpy ore with 32 - 34% of Cr2O3 at US$290 CIF and <> chrome concentrate with 48% of Cr2O3 at US$420 CIF. A sharp rise of ocean freight has accelerated to soar price of chrome ore ex. European origin.

The current price of chrome ore offered from Western Australia, being near to China, is US$240 per ton CIF China for medium grade lumpy ore with 42% of Cr2O3 ( with Fe /Cr ratio of 1 : 1.5 ). This Australian chrome ore has been already contracted with Chinese importers for shipments in April - June quarter of 2007 but a small quantity of this chrome ore has been still left at the mine and the negotiation on sale of this lot is being taken place.

China has now become the largest country in the world to import chrome ore and has been still increasing the demand for chrome ore. Consequently, the supply situation of chrome ore has continued to be tight and many inquiries for chrome ore have been placed by Chinese importers before main producing countries of chrome ore in the world. The background of this aspect is that China is scheduled to produce 7.00 million tons of crude stainless steel in 2007. Therefore, it is certain to increase the consumption of chrome unit in China and spot price of high carbon ferro-chrome has risen to a higher level than US$1.00 per lb. CIF.

A trigger for this steep rise of prices for chrome ores is that the Government of India has decided to impose newly the duty of US$44 per ton on exports of Indian chrome ores, effective from the 1st March of 2007, and also risen the floor prices for exports of chrome ores from India. Furthermore, the Government has dropped a hint to control quantities of chrome ores to be exported from India.
:D

Dutchy3

16th-May-2007, 09:38 PM

Hi Rim and all

And now we have BIG WHITE NEW AIR ... volume not need to be an issue as the spike in Oct 06 can power advances from here. Load up, STOP's in the 2.25 ish range (will not be triggered)

Bit easy this one ....

kooka873

17th-May-2007, 09:03 AM

Hi folks,

I've just joined this forum - my virgin post.

I have been a holder of CSM for over 5 years.
For the first time I am a little concerned about this stock - with the take over offer of February 2007. The value is far too low in my unprofessional opinion.

It is my hope that the rest of the shareholders reject this offer.

It was mentioned in the News release to the ASX in February that by April 2007, shareholders would receive an independent valuers report on the value of this stock etc. I haven't received any further communication - has anyone else?

We are now in May & an announcement from the company I presume is close.

With the price of around $2.70 I am wondering if I should sell now, later or wait for a while to see what happens, certainly I would be unhappy at the proposed offer.

I have been pondering about Mr Baxter's management of CSM since Michael's departure from the helm of CSM. Michael did such a wonderful job.

I would welcome comments from interested CSM forum followers.

Kooka873 :)

Dutchy3

17th-May-2007, 09:53 AM

Hi Kooka ... the pain is over, selling now is not something I'll be doing. I'm an ex beanie and also use TA to enter and exit postions. The TA on this one is as good as it's been since late 2003 in terms of my expectations of the SP increasing.

Rimtalay

17th-May-2007, 02:02 PM

Hi Kooka, don't worry they won't get it past the post at $2.28/share.
Hundreds of shareholders are fighting this one, I don't think the management realised how many shareholders would be against the takeover.
Check out the Consolidated Minerals takeover VOTE NO website (http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover.htm)
Price for manganese and chromite are up. If you want the latest commodity industry reports fill out the feedback form on the website and ask for them. They cannot be posted here, I would be sued.

kooka873

17th-May-2007, 11:45 PM

Hi Dutchy3 & Rimtalay,

I greatly appreciate your feedback & material on this stock.

I am greatly encouraged by your support & the increasing share-price.

Rumour has it that an announcement is due for June, with voting maybe occurring in/around July.

I suspect/hope your right that shareholders reject this offer, it really is an insult.

It "appears" that the Noble group still hold (or did) close to 6% of this stock.
Yes lets hope that the institutional investors look long-term & reject this offer. It wasn't that long ago that that this stock achieved the $4 mark & apart from the last divided payout or two(?) it provided great dividend payout yields in recent times. Given your information with demand for Manganese climbing & Nickel achiving great prices, your right CSM's value should continue to climb.

Interesting noting ABC TV's financial report about the very high PE ratio noted on many of China's stock market stocks, looks like that's headed for a correction in the not-to-distant future. Still it shouldn't hurt prices long term or effect Chinese demand for resources.

Cheers

Kooka873

Sainter

18th-May-2007, 03:37 PM

Howdy Kooka,
You could argue a high PER indicates high growth prospects. On that basis commodities will continue to be sucked in by China, to our benefit. Chip Goodyear strongly believes in the commodities supercycle, and given the privvy position he is in, that's good enough for me!

In my opinion, these guys overshot when they got to $4 a few years back, (due to 3 things-a high Mn price, V. profitable hedging at 55c or so, and the Portman windfall) and in hindsight I should have sold more than my 1/4 holding at the time (had bought for 60c, sold 1/4 at $3.99). As it is, I really see these things now genuinely being worth $4+ if they can get their Ni division firing and commodities hold up okay. Brokers will always put in conservative future values for commodities, but it seems in the past few years they've done nothing but revise those upwards!

Cheers!

Rimtalay

19th-May-2007, 08:26 AM

Price of chromite is still increasing. I have all the latest Commodity Industry reports, but I cannot post them here. email info@catamaransaustralia.com and ask for them and I'll email them to you.

This is the latest Corporate news -subscription only - so I'll post the whole story.

Shortage of chrome ore further hits steel makers
Already reeling under soaring nickel prices, steel firms are demanding govt block exports of chrome

India’s estimated Rs20,000 crore stainless steel industry, already reeling under the effect of soaring nickel prices in the global market, is now facing shortage of another critical input, chrome ore, with the mineral’s largest producer in the country, Tata Steel Ltd, stopping supply from 1 April.
“We have stopped selling chrome ore because we have invested in facilities for manufacturing ferrochrome,” said Sanjay Choudhry, corporate communications chief at Tata Steel.
Chrome ore is used to make ferrochrome, which goes into the manufacture of stainless steel. India has around 28 ferrochrome manufacturers who make the product for the stainless steel industry and for exports.
A Tata Steel spokesperson said the company had stopped exports of chrome ore, but did not comment on supplies to domestic ferrochrome makers.
“We are against the export of the country’s non-renewable natural resources without adding any value to them,” said Choudhry. “On this basis, we have stopped all our iron ore exports a couple of years ago and the same position exists for chrome ore.”
Tata Steel, which also manufacturers ferrochrome and globaly trades in the product, said that it would continue to sell chrome concentrate, made from low-grade ore.
The floor price of chrome concentrate is $347 (Rs14,227) a tonne, just $3 less than ore prices. Chrome ore (and concentrate) prices have grown 75% on the back of strong Chinese demand; China is the world’s largest consumer of stainless steel.
The increase in price, coupled with high power costs, will hurt ferrochrome manufacturers, analysts say. “Unless a company has captive chrome ore and coal mines to generate power, the ferrochrome business is commercially not viable,” said Manish Joshi, metal analyst at Karvy Consulting Ltd. Power typically constitutes 40-50% of the total cost of production of ferrochrome makers.
Blocking exports
On 1 March, the government levied a Rs2,000 surcharge on exports of chrome ore and chrome concentrates.
In the nine months to December 2006, until when data is available, Tata Steel exported 79,500 tonnes of chrome ore, down from 173,950 tonnes in the preceding 12 months. It shipped out 402,459 tonnes of concentrate, compared with 466,650 tonnes previously.
Tata Steel currently has three ferro alloy plants with a total capacity of 140,000 tonnes in Orissa, producing about two lakh tonnes of ferro chrome and five lakh tonnes of chrome concentrates. It has appointed two companies—Ferro Alloys Corp. Ltd and Nav Bharat Ventures Ltd—as conversion agents, to whom it will provide chrome ore to convert to ferrochrome for a fee.
With Tata’s supply out of reach, the Indian Ferro Alloys Producers’ Association, which represents the industry, is now demanding that the government stop export of chrome ore, a rare mineral with limited proven reserves within the country, 90% of which are located in Orissa.
“We must conserve the mineral in the country,” said T.S. Sundaresan, secretary general of the association.
The association has also written to mining, steel and commerce ministries to intervene on its behalf with the state-run Orissa Mining Corp. (OMC) to step up chrome ore production.
Apart from Tata Steel, OMC is the second-biggest chrome producer in the chrome-rich Sukinda valley. It sits on the largest reserve of 6,000 hectares. Tata Steel, which had a reserve of 1,200 hectares, saw its mining area reduced to 406 hectares after a 1998 Supreme Court order based on the Sharma Committee report.
The carved-up areas were parcelled off to four companies for captive consumption, Jindal Stainless Ltd, Ferro Alloys, Balasore Alloys Ltd, and Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys Ltd.
India currently accounts for 2% of the world’s proven chrome reserves, 44 times less than the world’s largest chrome ore producing nation, South Africa, but exports more than that country.
Looking to Orissa
Some stainless steel makers are now pinning their hopes on OMC, which exported 190,000 tonnes of chrome ore and 160,000 tonnes of chrome concentrates in the last financial year. But companies located outside the state fear that Orissa’s policy of making sure 70% of its chrome ore is used within the state will curb supplies to them.
“Because of chrome ore shortage, prices of ferrochrome have risen sharply,” said Dilip Singh Lodha, CEO of Jodhpur-based Stainless India Ltd, which produces 5,000 tonnes of stainless steel a month.
Kolkata-based Rohit Ferro-Tech Ltd, which has two plants in Orissa and West Bengal, complained that it is 30% short of requirement and has stock to last only three months. “Increasingly, it’s going to get tougher to access chrome unless the supply from Orissa goes up,” said Rakesh Aggarwal, president (commercial) at Rohit Ferro-Tech.
Other companies such as SAL Steel are also finding the going tough. A subsidiary of the Sal Steel Group, it had set up a 6,000 tonnes a month ferrochrome plant a year ago in Gujarat’s Kandla port, primarily to take advantage of the 16% excise and 4% tax benefit in the state.
Now, the company, which posted a turnover of Rs275 crore last year, faces uncertain supply. “We have little choice, but to import now,” said Sujal Shah, director (purchase). “The country must ban export of chrome and supply it to domestic consumers instead,” he added.

Rimtalay

22nd-May-2007, 09:36 AM

South Africa: Strong Demand Cranks Up Spot Ferrochrome Prices
http://allafrica.com/stories/200705210246.html
Business Day (Johannesburg)

21 May 2007
Posted to the web 21 May 2007

Charlotte Mathews
Johannesburg

SPOT prices for ferrochrome, of which SA is the single largest producer in the world, are running well ahead of contract prices, a promising indicator for local producers about to enter negotiations for third-quarter contracts.

SA's three major ferrochrome producers are JSE-listed Merafe Resources, which is in a joint venture with Xstrata; Samancor Chrome; and Hernic Ferrochrome. A third company, London AIM-quoted International Ferro Metals (IFM), is ramping up production at its integrated chrome mine and smelter in Mpumalanga.

Tata Group started construction of a R700m ferrochrome smelter in Richards Bay late last year, in which it will initially use Indian ore.

Ferrochrome is mainly used as an additive to stainless steel to prevent corrosion. It is also added to other steel alloys to increase hardness. London-based Numis Securities analyst John Meyer said in a note to clients last week on IFM that spot prices for high-carbon ferrochrome were 92c-98c/lb against current contract prices of 83c/lb.

At the beginning of last year ferrochrome prices dropped as low as 65c/lb as a result of market surpluses, which came in the midst of expansion programmes by all SA's leading producers. The Xstrata-Merafe Chrome joint venture has invested R1,67bn in the first phase of Project Lion, an integrated chrome mine and ferrochrome smelter near Steelpoort; Brits-based Hernic Ferrochrome expanded its capacity to 420 000 tons a year at a cost of R450m two years ago while Samancor Chrome is in the midst of a three-stage, $1,5bn expansion programme at Steelpoort. Merafe Resources financial director Stuart Elliot agreed yesterday that spot prices were higher than contract prices and new contract prices generally took their lead from spot prices. But he added that price negotiations for the third quarter would start shortly and he would prefer not to conduct those negotiations through the media.

Hernic Ferrochrome chief financial officer Hannes van Dyk said the higher spot price could be an indicator of a higher contract price in the third quarter.

Elliot said there were various reasons for the strong spot price but it essentially reflected demand outstripping supply as there were huge increases in stainless steel production in China, for uses ranging from domestic appliances to the building and automotive industries. Meyer said ferrochrome was reported to be critically short in Europe, with limited supply from Kazakhstan, SA's main competitor.

The Xstrata-Merafe joint venture has 20 furnaces, of which two have been temporarily closed. A decision would be made later this year on whether to bring them back on line, Elliot said. Van Dyk said Hernic had four furnaces, all of which were running at 100% capacity. Hernic had just completed an expansion programme and had no immediate plans to expand further, but if demand continued to be as strong as it was at present, Hernic could consider this.

Meyer noted the strengthening of the rand against the dollar, which was negative for margins for South African producers. But he said the strengthening in the ferrochrome price looked sufficient to compensate for the exchange rate.

Samancor Chrome could not be reached for comment on the price or its production capacity.

kooka873

22nd-May-2007, 03:08 PM

Thanks Sainter & Rimtalay for your informative msgs.
Great to see the demand for Chromite at present levels & SP holding at present value...

Kooka

Rimtalay

23rd-May-2007, 10:28 AM

Story on Ferro-chrome subscriber story

* * Charge chrome producers moot 18-20 cents rise in Q3
London*21 May 2007*15:26 Charge chrome producers are determined to close the gap between the contract price and spot price of their product in the forthcoming third-quarter contract negotiations, with some producers saying that they want the two prices to be completely on par, implying an increase of at least 18-20 cents. Charge chrome contract negotiations for the third quarter are set to start in earnest in two to three weeks ’ time, producers told MB, adding that they will seek a hefty increase in the list price for the second consecutive quarter. “ The price difference between the spot market and contracts is huge, ” said an official at a large South African producer, referring to the spot price of high- carbon ferro-chrome of $0.98-1.08 per lb, compared with the second-quarter contract settlement at 81-83 cents. The spot price started rallying from 65-68 cents at the start of the year only after the second-quarter contracts were settled, as ferro-chrome suddenly became in short supply amid booming demand from China. “ It is clear that the consumers are getting an unreasonably cheap deal in the current market, with contract prices that are far below the spot price, and then they all get percentage discounts on that price as well, ” the official said. “ This is while ferro-chrome producers are scrambling to get their hands on more ferro-chrome just to be able to supply the orders on their books, ” he added. A second producer agreed, saying that Chinese consumers "are screaming for material. The demand from China is excessive". "At the same time, we are all short of ferro-chrome," he continued. "I am having to turn down orders." The producers said the International Chromium Development Association (ICDA) meeting in Beijing last week showed consensus among charge chrome producers for a further steep price increase. “ Everybody who is important was there, including the top consumers, ” said the first producer source. “ We all talked like gentlemen and we told the consumers that they have to take into consideration that the contract price is substantially below the spot market and that on top of that the consumers get their percentage discounts. It cannot go like that. ” *
The second producer source said in the third quarter South African producers have higher electricity costs because it is the height of winter in the country. Freight costs in South Africa have increased, and the second-quarter 6-8 cents contract rise was basically wiped out after the rand strengthened against the dollar. "I will be looking for a 20 cents increase," he said. "I have no doubt there would be baulking from the large consumers, but at the end of the day the increase won't have a large impact on the ferritic [non-nickel] grade stainless steel." Even as European and US stainless steelmakers talk about production cuts while the market is in a destocking phase, the charge chrome producers argue that the stainless producers in these countries are destocking the commodity stainless nickel-bearing grade 304 stainless steel, and are indeed expanding production of the non-nickel grades. “ The ferritic [non-nickel] grades still use a lot of ferro-chrome, and if they ’ re expanding production, it means increasing demand for ferro-chrome, ” said a third producer source, adding that unlike nickel, there is no scrap substitute for ferro-chrome. Also, he said, the increase in demand from China will more than offset a decrease in the USA and Europe. “ China can take any quantity that might be available, but nobody has surplus, ” said the first producer source. He added that one non-South African producer has been talking about contract prices of $1.15-1.20, but this could not immediately be confirmed. “ We are not unreasonable, but would want the benchmark price to be equal or around the spot price, ” said the first producer source. “ I would like to see an 18 cents increase, which one could argue is a bit too much, but not if you consider that the 18 cents is not really 18 cents. The consumers get their discounts. ” A fourth producer said his peers at the ICDA were all singing from the same hymn sheet. They all agreed the third quarter would see another big increase, but his estimate for an increase was a tad more moderate at 8-10 cents. “ Everybody is looking for ferro-chrome – there is a huge shortage, ” he said, adding that large players like Xstrata and Hernic have all asked him for extra units. “ There is a huge shortage among producers, and I can ’ t see anyone in this market being aggressive, not even the new guys, not in a strong producer market like this, ” said the second producer source. However, the large western consumers will have to be convinced to dig deeper into their pockets in the third quarter, producers acknowledged. “ The consumers heard us out, but as usual they had a wait-and-see attitude, ” said the first producer. “ It will be really important for the South Africans to hold their nerve and be disciplined in the upcoming negotiations. At the moment we are all saying the same thing, but it will only really count when it comes to the crunch. ”

Rimtalay

25th-May-2007, 07:55 AM

* Manganese flake closes in on $5,000 on panic buying
London*23 May 2007*14:43
Manganese flake seems unstoppable as consumers are panic-buying, causing the price to leap another $200-400 with offers now exceeding $5,000 per tonne. Flake is now selling at $4,000-4,500 per tonne, up from $3,600-4,100 previously, as consumers buy in fear of being unable to clinch the supplies they need amid booming demand and a perceived shortage of material, following the arrest of material in Rotterdam. “ The manganese flake market has been upside down for the last six months, ” said a European trader, adding that offers for prompt material in Rotterdam are in the $5,200-5,300 range, while material for shipment is now on offer at $4,750-4,800 per tonne. “ We haven ’ t seen any relief, ” he continued. “ We expected the export tax from China might increase in the announcements yesterday; it didn ’ t. I initially thought it would bring some sanity to the price of flake; it didn ’ t. Nothing has changed. People are waiting for a second round of export tax announcements with manganese included in that. ” A manganese ore producer told MB that concerns over ore availability has caused consumers to panic about getting their share of orders on any manganese products. “ Customers are worried about supplies and they are willing to settle at almost any price for their manganese products, ” said the producer source. A second trader said he hope some stability would come back to the market, but added he did not see that happening until the uncertainty about additional export tax on the metal from China is exorcised. “ Until the export tax anxiety lifts from the market, we will see continuing rising prices, ” he said. Manganese lump prices are also rising and trading at a $200 premium to flake, market participants reported. Copyright © Metal Bulletin PLC. All rights reserved.
*

Rimtalay

25th-May-2007, 07:56 AM

18 May 2007
India: Curbs sought on chrome ore exports
Anticipating a shortage of chrome ore, a crucial ingredient in stainless steel production, in the coming years, the mining industry wants the Union government to re-examine its export policy.

India is the third largest exporter of chrome ore after South Africa and Kazhakstan, though the reserves constitute only 0.84 per cent of worldwide reserves.

Recently, the government imposed a duty of Rs 2,000 per tonne on exports of all grades of chrome ore to curb overseas sales. The price of Indian chrome ore in the international market ranges between Rs 6,000-10,000 per tonne, depending on the grade.

“However, all the chrome ore mining firms and exporters have absorbed the tax since the price of chrome ore is high. There will be a huge demand-supply gap in the coming years if the exports of chrome ore are not curbed. We have urged the government to allow exports of chrome ore concentrates (produced through beneficiation of low grade chrome ore) and conserve other grades of chrome ore,” S B Chauhan, advisor to the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI), told Business Standard.

China is the principal market for Indian chrome ore. Nearly one-third of the demand for chrome ore from China is met by India. Last year, India exported 1.34 million tonnes (accounting for 31 per cent of imports) of chrome ore to China. Chrome ore from South Africa and Turkey accounted for 18 per cent and 17 per cent of the Chinese imports.

The demand for Indian chrome ore is likely to go up this year since China intends to increase its stainless steel output by 37 per cent to 7.35 million tonnes this year.

The proven chrome ore reserves of all grades in India is around 66 million tonnes, with Orissa accounting for the bulk followed by Karnataka. The recoverable reserves of metallurgical grade chrome ore are around 50 million tonnes.

“We anticipate fast depletion of chrome ore at the open cast level in the coming years since Indian companies do not have the technology to undertake underground mining. There will be hardly any chrome ore of metallurgical grade available in the country if exports continue to remain at the present level,” he pointed out.

Besides, many public sector undertakings (PSUs) have control over chromite bearing areas in the country. “These areas are lying idle without witnessing any exploration and development. Considering the alarming status of metallurgical grade chromite resources in the country, the idle chromite-bearing areas should be de-reserved,” Chauhan said.

Rimtalay

26th-May-2007, 01:47 PM

Friday 25 May 2007
Chinese SiMn gains further as ore shortage persists
BEIJING (Metal-Pages) 25-May-07. Chinese silico-manganese prices have broken through the $1,450/tonne level in a sellers’ market where the strong demand and manganese ore shortage are showing no signs of easing.

Export prices for standard 65/17 grade material are around $1,450-1,500/tonne FOB, up $250 compared to one week ago. The market was at either side of $860/tonne before the weeklong holiday at the start of this month.

Domestic prices have peaked at Rmb9,600-10,000/tonne ($1,255-1,307) ex works. The country’s largest carbon steel mill Angang Group doubled its purchase price /subscr/story.php?id=27641 recently with the purpose of ensuring consistent supply.

“There is strong demand both domestically and internationally,” one silico-manganese trader told Metal-Pages today. “The continued growth of global steel production has increased demand for alloying metals.”

The tight availability of high grade manganese ore has also helped thrust the market. “There isn’t enough supply for ore out there as no large overseas shipments seem to be arriving,” a second trader said. “And it’s a real burden for alloy producers that spot ore prices are at historical highs.”

Spot market for imported lumpy ore (Mn min 48%) has proven far more volatile with prices having surged to Rmb62-65/mtu from Rmb50-52/mtu seen one week earlier. Despite the current strong fundamentals there are concerns that the market could turn around when the supply increases.

“The output for manganese is typically sufficient in the summer,” a manganese producer told Metal-Pages. “And the current good price may have encouraged some companies to shift their furnaces to silico-manganese.”

Silico-manganese previously hit a record Rmb10,000/tonne in early 2004 on an unprecedented steel boom while prices then halved rapidly on oversupply when new production came on stream.

Rimtalay

27th-May-2007, 08:20 AM

* * (AMM) Ore shortfall in China keeps pressure on ferromanganese
New York*17 May 2007*19:45
U.S. ferromanganese prices are climbing at a dramatic rate as a manganese ore shortage in China continues to underpin worldwide supply tightness. "China has no manganese ore at a high grade, so they are forced to import manganese ore with a higher grade and blend it in with their low-grade ore to produce manganese that can be used in alloys," a trader said. Prices for manganese alloys have soared on the back of the ore shortage. High-carbon ferromanganese is now trading hands in the United States for between $1,050 and $1,125 per long ton, up from $980 to $1,040 per ton previously. Medium-carbon ferromanganese has jumped to between 82 and 86 cents per pound from a previous range of 78 to 80 cents per pound. One trader reported the recent sale of several truckloads of medium-carbon ferromanganese at 85 cents per pound. "Manganese ore prices are through the roof in China, so once any material makes it to the U.S., prices are well over $1,000 (a ton)," a second trader said. Users who are staying out of the market in the hope that prices will fall could be waiting a long time, sources said. One reason: China is expected to raise the export tax on ferroalloys to 15 percent from 10 percent, and an announcement could come as early as Monday, traders said. "In the next 30 days every unit of manganese will be 30, 40 or 50 percent higher," the first trader said. "We're going to see high's you've never seen before." On Wednesday, the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency released a basic ordering agreement tender for the sale of 10,000 tonnes of high-carbon ferromanganese. The results of the tender will not be known until early June. A pair of traders said they expect Glencore Ltd., U.S. arm of Glencore International AG, and BHP Billiton to make a strong run for the material. *

Rimtalay

27th-May-2007, 09:15 AM

Manganese ore price lifts to highest level since Sep 05

London 25 May 2007 15:41

Manganese ore spot prices have jumped to levels last seen in September 2005 on supply disruptions at many major producers, while demand for ore has been holding unabated, market participants reported. Manganese alloys in Europe have been pushed up by the rising cost of ore, following similar trends in the USA and Asia . Manganese ore 48/50 percent manganese is now trading at $3.30-3.60 per mtu fob on the spot market, compared with $3.10-3.30 previously. Most tonnages from large suppliers are secured on long-term contracts, but the spot market has revived as demand for the ore surged this year, mainly driven by China . “ The cause of all the drama in the manganese market has been coming from the very high price for ore because of the huge demand increase in China , ” a large ore producer told MB. “ But more important is that this has combined with significant disruptions in deliveries to China from almost all the major suppliers. ” He referred to bottlenecks at ports from which Eramet has been shipping due to electricity problems, reduced ore output at CVRD ’ s Azul mine, which will be exacerbated by the closure of the mine from June for six months, and reduced output from Ghana after the Ukrainian group Privat bought the mine. “ BHP is having problems and not producing as much as they want, ” added a second large producer source. “ All of these are conspiring to put upward pressure on ore prices. The spot market is going through the roof. ” A third producer source said Chinese traders are driving prices up even further by holding onto material, with reports in the market of prices as high as $5-5.30 per mtu cif. “ When the ore price increase, the alloy prices follow, ” said the third producer source. Indeed, the price for ferro-manganese and silico-manganese in Europe jumped to €800-850 ($1,076-1,143) per tonne delivered on both products, from €670- 705 and €700-730 respectively. Silico-manganese spot business has been transacted at levels over €900 per tonne, market participants reported. One silico-manganese producer reported achieving €1,000 in Europe .

“ Steel demand is very strong in Europe , ” said a manganese alloys producer. “ We have customers asking for prompt delivery, but we struggle because we are full. ” He said the European price on ferro-manganese with 7.5 percent carbon and silico-manganese basis 65-75 percent manganese has risen by at least €50 in the past week alone. “ Had we spoken a week ago, the price would certainly have been lower. The market has taken all the fundamentals at play on board and has now just been propelled forward by momentum, ” he said. All the producers said the jump in the spot price bodes well for the third-quarter contract negotiations, which are due to start “ pretty soon ” . Copyright © Metal Bulletin PLC. All rights reserved.

Rimtalay

27th-May-2007, 09:17 PM

MANGANESE ORE 48% CIF CHINA - PRICES FROM RYAN’S NOTES
DATE RN 48% Mn Ore US$/dmtu LOW RN 48% Mn Ore US$/dmtu HIGH
1 st May 07 3.20 3.60
4th May 07 3.60 4.00
8th May 07 3.80 4.00
11th May 07 4.20 4.30
15th May 07 4.20 4.30
18th May 07 4.35 4.60
22nd May 07 4.70 5.00
25th May 07 4.70 5.00
Percentage increase 47% 40%

Rimtalay

28th-May-2007, 07:42 AM

Ferro-chrome HC basis Cr 52% C 6-8% del'd N Eur dp 24-may-2007 0.94 - 0.99 $/lb Cr
Ferro-chrome HC basis Cr 52% C 6-8% delivered USA 24-may-2007 0.98 - 1.02 $/lb Cr
Ferro-chrome HC basis Cr 52% C 6-8% FOB China 24-may-2007 0.78 - 0.8 $/lb Cr
Ferro-manganese 73% HC FOB China 24-may-2007 1380 - 1420 $/mt
Ferro-manganese Mn 78% HC 8% delivered USA 24-may-2007 1060 - 1120 $/long ton
Ferro-manganese Mn 78% HC delivered European works 24-may-2007 670 - 700 EUR/mt

Rimtalay

29th-May-2007, 08:34 PM

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS
ConsMin warms to Pallinghurst’s Investec link
Australian resource company, Consmin, which has been the target of an approach by Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst vehicle, feels that the bid may be back on track through the latter’s new tie-up with banker Investec.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Tuesday , 29 May 2007

PERTH -

The West Perth-based miner Consolidated Minerals Ltd (ConsMin) has implied that the bid for the company by Brian Gilbertson's Pallinghurst Resources and North American mining associate AMCI may be getting back on track by welcoming those two bidding partners' link with Investec plc.

In a brief announcement today ConsMin's managing director Rod Baxter said it was "pleased" Investec has been invited by Pallinghurst and AMCI to "participate in the proposed transaction with Consolidated Minerals" first detailed by the West Australian manganese, chromite and nickel miner in late February.

"Further details on the implications of Investec's involvement in the proposed transaction will be provided in the Scheme booklet," Baxter said.

The draft scheme documentation for the proposal has been lodged with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

However, Perth stockbrokers that Mineweb spoke to were of the view there would need to be a new carrot introduced by the Pallinghurst-AMCI-Investec party to excite ConsMin shareholders as the stock has lifted since the time of the late February bid from a range around $A2.00/share ($US1.66) to trading late today at $A2.94/share ($US2.44).

On April 11 Mineweb reported that Gilbertson's bid for ConsMin had been holed, as the then stock price of $A1.63 ($US1.35) was considered above the Pallinghurst offer which was $A1.38/share ($US1.13/share) plus two shares in a new Consmin vehicle for every five shares held, with shareholders receiving a 40% stake in the new company. Pallinghurst wanted to achieve 50.1% ownership. At the time ConsMin's board supported the Pallinghurst bid, saying the transaction valued the company at an enterprise value of $A625 million ($US515), or at $A2.28/share ($US1.87/share).

The ConsMin share price has been on a solid climb since the bid, thanks in part to an improving price for manganese though the foundering bid has attracted the attention of others, and it has been reported in the Australian business media several times that big brokers UBS and Goldman Sachs JBWere were running the numbers on a counter offer.

Mining columnist John Phaceas of The West Australian said in his Spinifex column that Gilbertson would arrive in Sydney today to begin briefings with investors, institutions and the media to convince them of the merits of the Pallinghurst offer.

Phaceas said rumours suggest any rival offer may include splitting ConsMin's underground nickel mine at Kambalda from the open pit manganese and chromite mines in the Pilbara. One possible contender named by Phaceas is cashed-up Broken Hill zinc-lead-silver miner Perilya Ltd.

Yesterday a Johannesburg-filed statement said Pallinghurst, AMCI (interestingly through subsidiary AMCI ConsMin (Cayman) LP and Investec would become "Cooperation Partners" to pursue investment opportunities.

The agreement has earmarked $US200 M and the partners were in "advanced discussions with a leading Asian steelmaker on an additional commitment of $US100 M.

The statement also said Investec had been invited to join the bid for ConsMin

wintermute

29th-May-2007, 09:17 PM

What did others think of the announcement this evening?? Sounded like a bunch of waffle to me ;)

No mention of possibly increasing the bid, it almost sounded like they were planning to continue on without changing anything and still offer shareholders $2.28 per share (hoping that people would be impressed that they had another partner)... I must admit I've been extremely slack with keeping up with announcements lately, but this one certainly didn't seem to offer anything of substance to me!!

Tony.

noirua

29th-May-2007, 09:18 PM

Col Lector

29th-May-2007, 10:05 PM

I imagine that there are quite a few other suitors for CSM. Perilya's mentioned, but Surely there are some others...eg, major steelmakers (Chinese particularly) that would love to secure control over Mn/Cr/Ni supplies.
If the CSM directors havent sold out already.
I am a bit cynical as to the inclusion of Investec, and the welcoming by the CSM honchos. Seems to be a bit of a South African club forming here.
As in sport, we all know how the S.African's dream/strive and plot to get one over the Aussies....

wintermute

29th-May-2007, 10:27 PM

Confirmation that Investec are to join Pallinghurst & AMCI in the bid for CSM, increases the buying power substantially.

At $2.94, the offer for CSM is valued at $2.55. The cash part of the offer at $1.38 appears set to be raised.

Hmmm I think I need to do some calculations again... I guess that the total number of shares in the new company will basically be the same as the current number so market cap is market cap.... and the new shares should be worth the same as the old ones... so if I had 10,000 shares, I'd get 4000 shares worth $2.94 each, and 10,000 * $1.38 (ie $13,800 cash) making my investment worth $25560, but if I sold at market it would be worth $29,400!

yes I think that the deal needs some tweaking ;) This was my argument from the begining, I bought CSM for the potential growth, not because of some takeover rumour (I actually didn't even know about the takeover rumour when I bought my first parcel)... buy giving me cash and 40% I'm being robbed of 60% of my potential growth!!

Tony.

Rimtalay

30th-May-2007, 07:49 AM

Hi Tony,
You are 100% right, you are being robbed of 60% of the growth and by giving Pallinghurst your shares for only $1.38 share you are effectively giving Pallinghurst 0.38 c / share of your profit for nothing.
Surely ConsMin shareholders aren't that stupid.
If only a few more shareholders would email Rod Baxter and tell him they want more and that he is NOT looking after shareholder interests. I reckon $2.10/share plus 2 for 5 this would value the shares at $3.50 that would be fair and reasonable to shareholders.
Our ConsMin management think its a done deal. If you don't put pressure on now then we don't stand a chance.
email Baxter rbaxter@consminerals.com.au
Don't always leave the fighting to someone else. Help us:banghead:

Rimtalay

30th-May-2007, 07:51 AM

This has just come out in the Sydney Morning Herald today.
It's a done deal already, unless we tell them now, they won't up the price after the VOTE:banghead:

ConsMin bidder recruits allies
Jamie Freed
May 30, 2007
FORMER BHP Billiton boss Brian Gilbertson's $625 million partial private equity tilt at Perth miner Consolidated Minerals has gained additional backing from South African investment bank Investec and an Asian steelmaker.

As Mr Gilbertson began selling the ConsMin offer to investors and analysts in Sydney yesterday, his London-based fund, Pallinghurst Resources, said it raised $US200 million ($244 million) from private coalminer AMCI and Investec.

Pallinghurst added it was in "advanced discussions" with an Asian steelmaker - believed to be Korea's Posco - for another $US100 million.

In total, Mr Gilbertson expects to raise $US1 billion to $US1.5 billion to help pursue investment opportunities in the resources sector, including its bid for ConsMin.

In a statement, Investec chief executive Stephen Koseff implied his bank agreed to participate in part due to the corporate advisory fees it would gain from Pallinghurst's deal flow.

Mr Gilbertson has often been cited as the consummate mining dealmaker. He was the driving force behind BHP's $US30 billion merger with Billiton in 2001, but was later ousted after more acquisition plans - such as a tie-up with Rio Tinto - were deemed too ambitious by the BHP board.

His latest deal, the offer for ConsMin, has been controversial from the start. Pallinghurst has offered shareholders $1.38 in cash and 0.4 of a share in a rejuvenated ConsMin, in which Mr Gilbertson's group would own 60 per cent.

ConsMin shares yesterday closed 1c higher at $2.94, meaning the bid values the company at $2.56.

In an interview with South Africa's Business Day, Mr Gilbertson said ConsMin was attractive because its assets had been undervalued by the market.

Argo Investments managing director Rob Patterson yesterday morning deemed the bid price "obviously inadequate".

But after listening to a presentation by Mr Gilbertson and his associates in the afternoon, he was marginally more optimistic.

"There's no doubt they will bring quite a lot to the table," Mr Patterson said. "The problem we see is the transaction was priced quite some time ago when commodity prices were different. We'll wait and look at the documents now. The way we vote will depend on the circumstances."

The scheme of arrangement booklet should be released in mid-June, about two months behind the originally scheduled April release date.

Meanwhile, prices of the commodities produced by ConsMin - nickel, manganese and chromite - have performed strongly.

There have also been market rumours an independent expert report already submitted to the corporate regulator for approval might have valued ConsMin shares above the offer price.

Rimtalay

30th-May-2007, 08:08 AM

It sounds like our dear Chairman Mr Carter is accepting for us. Of course Baxter thinks it's great, he doesn't own a single share.
You need to email Baxter NOW and tell him to up the price , otherwise you vote NO. We need the price increased before we get the scheme documentation.:banghead:

email rbaxter@consminerals.com.au

ConsMin buyer's $1.8bn war chest
Andrew Trounson and Kevin Andrusiak
May 30, 2007

FORMER BHP Billiton boss Brian Gilbertson has begun a whistle-stop tour of Consolidated Minerals shareholders, bringing a $US1.5 billion ($1.83 billion) war chest to sway investors on a proposed takeover of the miner.
Pallinghurst, Mr Gilbertson's private equity vehicle, has teamed with privately owned US coal miner and bid partner AMCI and South African bank Investec to build the fund, as Consolidated Minerals shareholders begin to get a taste of what their company could achieve through the a $625 million scheme of arrangement.

If approved, Pallinghurst Investor - a mix of the three players - will take a 60 per cent stake in a vehicle dubbed NewConsMin, which will be used to house ConsMin and other acquisitions made with the $US1.5 billion. The other 40 per cent will be owned by ConsMin shareholders, who will also collect $1.38 for every share.

No extra money from the fund has been set aside to boost the scheme of arrangement's value.

Draft scheme documents have been lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission with a scheme booklet expected in mid-June.

But many shareholders are disappointed with the cash-and-scrip offer and say the deal, struck on February 23 with the support of the ConsMin board, does not account for nickel and manganese price rises.

"I never thought it was a good deal from the outset," said one fund manager, who declined to be named. "I'm not sure about giving away 60 per cent of the company but I am very comfortable Gilbertson is involved."

Neither Mr Gilbertson nor his Deutsche Bank advisers could be contacted for comment. ConsMin is being advised by JP Morgan.

ConsMin chairman R Carter welcomed news of Investec's participation, saying it added clout to the Pallinghurst consortium and that ConsMin would be the beneficiary.

"It diversifies and deepens the resources that Pallinghurst has been able to bring together, and we like the look of it," Mr Carter told The Australian.

Mr Carter remains upbeat on the prospects of shareholders backing the deal, with a vote on the proposed scheme of arrangement expected to be held in July.

ConsMin shares closed at a record high of $2.97, a substantial premium to the Pallinghurst-led offer valued at $2.28 a share.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

noirua

30th-May-2007, 08:25 AM

This takeover bid is different to most as CSM Directors favour the bid, subject to no counter-bid, and 40% of the new set-up stays with existing shareholders in CSM. Therefore, as the CSM shareprice rises so does the value of the bid, albeit only 40% of it. That we know.

Other factors are: The value to the new company of all the bidders expertise and heavyweight backing. The improved value of CSM with commodity price rises. There appear to be no other important matters.

The CSM shareprice is close to $3.00 and many may see speculation in that. A fair cash increase is in the region of 30c to 40c, IMHO.

Rimtalay

30th-May-2007, 09:03 AM

For a fair and reasonble offer to shareholders, it should be $2.10/share plus 2 shares for 5. This would value CSM at $3.50 /share.
Any less than that you would have to be a fool in accepting. Yes they can bring upside but you'll only get 40% of the upside.
Manganese prices are back up to 2005 levels and ConsMin will be making an extra $100million profit FY on manganese alone on these new prices.
We are now talking US$5.00/dmtu CIF China which equates to US$4/dmtu FOB which equals sales revenue FY of $230 million at present costs of $108/ton This would leave a FY profit of $130 million.
Most shareholders wouldn't have a clue what is happening in the manganese and chrome ore markets and are just being lead like little lambs to the slaughter:banghead:

ta2693

30th-May-2007, 10:03 AM

"ConsMin shares closed at a record high of $2.97, a substantial premium to the Pallinghurst-led offer valued at $2.28 a share"
Does anyone know who is major shareholder of CSM?
What the chance of the take over be approved by shareholder given the bid price is substantially below the market price? If there is no chance, why these investo push the deal? If the take over fail, it is no good for everybody involved.

Lert

30th-May-2007, 10:33 AM

ta2693

30th-May-2007, 10:47 AM

Another question, where is the buyer from? If people know they will end in 2.28, why they pay 3 now to get 2.28 month later? From the volume and price behavior, I do not think the buyer are crazy speculators. So the result of CSM takeover would end in 1 bid price going to increase, 2 another bidder is collect the shares, maybe GS and JB were, maybe some Chinese or Indian. I do not believe the shareholder will end in 2.28.

Rimtalay

30th-May-2007, 03:09 PM

Yes, $2.97 was a record for the last 12 months, it's $3.03 today, but CSM was $4.25+ in September 2005 when manganese was at record highs.
Most people don't realise it is back at that price again, but Rod Baxter doesn't want to tell you. He's worried his deal will fall over.
Baxter doesn't have any shares, it tell you a lot about a CEO who doesn't buy shares in his company.

Rimtalay

30th-May-2007, 09:41 PM

Q3 manganese ore and alloy contracts set for sharp rises
London 29 May 2007 13:23
Third-quarter contract prices for manganese ore and alloys will increase by at least 25 percent from the second quarter on manganese ore shortages, producers indicated. Manganese ore producers are seeking a 50-80 cents gain in contract prices for the third quarter to around $3.60 per mtu on an fob basis, up from $2.80-3.10 in the second quarter. “ We see the quarterly and monthly contract prices rising steadily, with the spot price through the roof, ” said a large manganese ore producer. “ I have seen $4.80 cif and we will see these levels going into quarterly prices. ”“ We will start negotiating next month, but people are hard up for ore, ” said a second producer. “ We will ask for a strong increase. ” He too said he expects a third-quarter price at around $3.60 per mtu. Ore spot prices have surged to $3.30-3.60 per mtu fob, their highest levels since the third quarter of 2005, from $3.10-3.30 previously, because of supply disruptions at major producers amid unabated strong demand (MB May 25). This has, in turn, led to manganese alloys prices surging, and third-quarter contracts are also set to see large increases. One silico-manganese producer mooted €1,000 ($1,345) per tonne for the third quarter to customers, while others are talking about a minimum of €900. This represents a 25-32 percent increase from €680-720 in the second quarter. Spot silico-manganese prices have risen to €800-850 per tonne from €700-730 previously on rising ore prices and pending anti-dumping investigations on imports of the product into Europe. Ferro-manganese could rise close to 30 percent in the third quarter to €850-900 per tonne, from €655-700 in the second quarter, producers said. “ Customers are getting worried about supply, ” said a large manganese alloys producer. “ I expect because of these concerns the negotiations will be quick. On the spot market we ’ ve seen prices tested well above where I thought it would be and customers weren ’ t even shocked. People are worried about getting their supply. ”

Manganese ore price lifts to highest level since Sep 05
London 25 May 2007 15:41
Manganese ore spot prices have jumped to levels last seen in September 2005 on supply disruptions at many major producers, while demand for ore has been holding unabated, market participants reported. Manganese alloys in Europe have been pushed up by the rising cost of ore, following similar trends in the USA and Asia. Manganese ore 48/50 percent manganese is now trading at $3.30-3.60 per mtu fob on the spot market, compared with $3.10-3.30 previously. Most tonnages from large suppliers are secured on long-term contracts, but the spot market has revived as demand for the ore surged this year, mainly driven by China. “ The cause of all the drama in the manganese market has been coming from the very high price for ore because of the huge demand increase in China, ” a large ore producer told MB. “ But more important is that this has combined with significant disruptions in deliveries to China from almost all the major suppliers. ” He referred to bottlenecks at ports from which Eramet has been shipping due to electricity problems, reduced ore output at CVRD ’ s Azul mine, which will be exacerbated by the closure of the mine from June for six months, and reduced output from Ghana after the Ukrainian group Privat bought the mine. “ BHP is having problems and not producing as much as they want, ” added a second large producer source. “ All of these are conspiring to put upward pressure on ore prices. The spot market is going through the roof. ” A third producer source said Chinese traders are driving prices up even further by holding onto material, with reports in the market of prices as high as $5-5.30 per mtu cif. “ When the ore price increase, the alloy prices follow, ” said the third producer source. Indeed, the price for ferro-manganese and silico-manganese in Europe jumped to €800-850 ($1,076-1,143) per tonne delivered on both products, from €670- 705 and €700-730 respectively. Silico-manganese spot business has been transacted at levels over €900 per tonne, market participants reported. One silico-manganese producer reported achieving €1,000 in Europe.
“ Steel demand is very strong in Europe, ” said a manganese alloys producer. “ We have customers asking for prompt delivery, but we struggle because we are full. ” He said the European price on ferro-manganese with 7.5 percent carbon and silico-manganese basis 65-75 percent manganese has risen by at least €50 in the past week alone. “ Had we spoken a week ago, the price would certainly have been lower. The market has taken all the fundamentals at play on board and has now just been propelled forward by momentum, ” he said. All the producers said the jump in the spot price bodes well for the third-quarter contract negotiations, which are due to start “ pretty soon ”

Rimtalay

31st-May-2007, 05:25 PM

This Sean Gilbertson thinks its a done deal, he better up the price then. If they can only afford $320 million then better only give them 40%. That would mean $1.38/share plus 3 shares for 5. :banghead:
They're smart they realise ConsMin is undervalued by the market. "we like to identify assets that have been unloved, are not well supported, are not well understood "

Sean Gilbertson: Partner, Pallinghurst Resources Fund

28 May 2007 23:09

MONEYWEB: Sean Gilbertson joins us now. Sean, the reason we wanted to chat to you was the announcement made from Pallinghurst and Investec and AMCI that you are going to be getting together and raising about $1bn to $1.5bn to invest in the resources sector. Why these partners in particular?

SEAN GILBERTSON: Well, Geoff, we've spent some time working with AMCI in the past and, as you may or may not know, I spent the early part of my career working in the coal business with a thing called Global Coal, and came across AMCI then. And we've always found AMCI to be a very pragmatic partner, so I think that's why probably they came to the table first. And Investec, of course, one of the famous home-grown South African names, again is an outfit that shares many of the strategic visions that we do. And accordingly, in part given their expertise in the resources sector, we thought they would make perfect partners together with AMCI - and that's resulted in today's announcement.

MONEYWEB: David was saying that we can draw from this partnership that assumingly you feel that there is some value still left in the resources sector. What sorts of companies are you going to be looking at?

SEAN GILBERTSON: Absolutely. And I like to think that, while I can tell you today about two of those opportunities, there is actually a pipeline of opportunities which we think are absolutely first rate. The first transaction, which we announced in February of this year, was a transaction with Consolidated Minerals of Australia, which is a producer of manganese ore, chromite nickel, tungsten and so forth - all of the things that you effectively need for steel companies. And under that transaction, which is fully supported by the Board of Consolidated Minerals, we would be acquiring 60% of that business for A$320m, which is approximately US$260m. And the idea is that we would use Consolidated Minerals as a growth vehicle to expand then, both by geography and also by commodity. So that's really opportunity number one. Opportunity number two is our long-held belief that there's a lot of merit in branding precious stones. And having looked at that opportunity over he last several years, we felt that by far and away the best brand name we could possibly get our hands on would be the Fabergé brand name of Russian and French heritage. And we spent some two years trying to do it, but in January of this year, I'm pleased to say that we were successful in acquiring the Fabergé brand name from Unilever, and will now set about creating a brand of gemstone strategy and acquiring access to appropriate underlying assets.

MONEYWEB: Looking at the Consolidated Minerals deal, you've taken 60% and Brian Gilbertson will be on the board, as well as the two founders of AMCI. Is this the way you are going to go about these deals - you're going to take board control, or not control necessarily, but play an active role in the companies you invest in?

SEAN GILBERTSON: Absolutely. Together with AMCI and Investec and our press release earlier today, we've also alluded to the involvement of the leading Asian steel player.

MONEYWEB: I take it you can't release the name?

SEAN GILBERTSON: Unfortunately Geoff, I can't tell you who that was. However, the documentation relating to the Consolidated Minerals transaction has just been filed in Australia, and will very soon be in the public domain. And what I can suggest to you is that if you get a copy of those documents when they're available, you will find the name of that steel company in the documents. To answer your question, yes, Consolidated Minerals is a good example of the type of transaction that we want to do. We are going to have, depending on the amount of money that we raise within Pallinghurst Resources itself, and together with the deal that we've announced today with Investec, and of course AMCI and the steel company, somewhere between a billion and $1.5bn. And with that money we would like to go after five to seven different platforms. Consolidated Minerals is one of those platforms, our precious stones player is another one of those platforms. We are not quite in a position to talk about the others yet, but I can tell you that the remaining opportunities are pretty well developed. So in general, yes, we do like to take controlling interests, 50% plus, with corresponding board representation - it doesn't necessarily have to be control. But the whole idea is that, rather than taking a shotgun approach whereby we just buy as many things as we possibly can and hope that an appropriate number of them work out, we would much prefer to pay very careful attention to each one of the businesses and ensure that they become world-class businesses.

MONEYWEB: Clearly, though, it's a lot of work for the board representees?

SEAN GILBERTSON: Yes, indeed it will be, and in fact, Arne Frandsen, whom I suspect you are probably familiar with, who has had a sterling track record in South Africa despite the fact that he's originally Danish, is a member of the Pallinghurst team, and I guess it's a token demonstration of our commitment to these assets that he will actually be inserted on a full-time basis with Consolidated Minerals, and that means that he's got to up-ship as it were and move to Perth, and he will take an executive position on the board as head of strategy and work very carefully and closely with that team for the foreseeable future in delivering the strategies that we've outlined for Consolidated Minerals.

MONEYWEB: Sean, you obviously are positive about the resources sector, but how do you see it placed at the moment - where do you see it going?

SEAN GILBERTSON: Well, if I could answer that question, Geoff, I probably wouldn't be sitting here talking to the day, or maybe I would be doing so from the back of a yacht parked somewhere in the Mediterranean. I think the difference is that the team of people that we've been privileged to put together in Pallinghurst Resources are not experts at calling the market - and what we do is not based on calling the market. What we believe we do doesn't depend on whether the market is going up, down or sideways, and that really means that we like to identify assets that have been unloved, are not well supported, are not well understood - and that we can strategically reposition those assets. And we believe that we can do that whether the markets are up, down or sideways.

MONEYWEB: Sean Gilbertson is a partner at Pallinghurst Resources. David, they sound like they've got a plan and they're looking to do quite a lot of things?

DAVID SHAPIRO: Sure. Well, he's got good DNA, old Sean. I think if you take Brian, his father's track record, he's been a superb miner and done very well. I'm very interested in the Fabergé branding, because De Beers started that with diamonds, or they've started to brand their diamonds so that you know the source of the stone. And also, what's interesting about De Beers, if ever you've gone to London to Bond Street there, they have a shop there - they have got actual retail outlets where they are branding the name. So I don't know whether we're going to get a Fabergé out where you can actually buy branded stones as well. But interesting strategy, and sounds confident. I think the only concern is it just shows you how much mining development is taking place outside of South Africa, and just how much we've got to catch up. And, having been a leader there, we are actually kind of playing catch-up now, or people are snapping at our heels in all respects.

Rimtalay

31st-May-2007, 06:02 PM

(AMM) Squeeze takes silicomanganese to 90 cents a pound
New York 30 May 2007 23:25
Silicomanganese prices have spiked again, and consumers are bracing themselves for even higher prices driven by a tightening manganese ore market. Spot silicomanganese has jumped to between 84 and 90 cents per pound in the United States, up from a previous range of 72 to 80 cents per pound. One trader, who reported offering truckloads of the material for more than 90 cents per pound, said the shortage of supply has customers who are seeking large quantities at a disadvantage. "It actually works against you for larger quantities because the market is that tight," he said. "The problem is that a small-time consumer may be able to go to six or seven guys to get material, but a larger consumer might only find two or three guys who can quote on it." A pair of traders said consumers who were previously waiting for prices to fall before ordering are now hungry for material and have no choice but to pay top prices to meet their production needs. A manganese ore shortage in China continues to underpin the high prices for manganese metal and alloys. And the recent price rally for manganese alloys is showing no signs of slowing down, as customers anticipate a critical shortage once Cia. Val do Rio Doce closes its Azul Mine. The shutdown, to begin in June, is slated to last at least six months. Market sources said the company's lower manganese ore sales will further aggravate the current global shortage. In the first quarter of 2007, CVRD's ore sales fell 60 percent to 83,000 tonnes from its sales the previous quarter. Also tightening the supply picture in China is the restructuring of Ghana Manganese Ltd. on the back of its takeover by Ukraine's Privat Group in March. "The price of manganese metal is going up, we're seeing crazy prices and then there is the manganese ore shortage in China," a producer said. "Then once Azul closes that will add up to even more tightness in the manganese ore market."
One producer said he expects to see the alloy trading for more than $1 a pound in the near term. Rumors that BHP Billiton is experiencing production problems, however, have been largely dismissed by U.S. traders as unfounded. U.S. silicomanganese production continues to struggle to fill the void, as the country's largest producer, Eramet Marietta Inc., cannot make enough to take advantage of the rocketing spot market, sources said. Copyright © Metal Bulletin PLC. All rights reserved.

noirua

31st-May-2007, 09:51 PM

How much truth is there in the thinking that AMCI are looking to add their Aussie coal interests to the Consolidated Minerals set-up and form a larger diversified Mining House?

Rimtalay

31st-May-2007, 11:37 PM

Don't be so silly to even think for one minute that they will give you anything more than $1.38/share plus 2 share for 5. If they buy anything else they will just do a capital raising for themselves at a price they decide. If they SELL any existing assets into the company they will sell at their own price and take out as many shares as they want. Don't forget they'll have 60% of the shares. You'll get nothing for free.
They are already trying to rip you off by not announcing to the market about the latest manganese prices. I have made a formal complaint to the ASX, and I wouldn't do that unless I was 100% sure of their game.
READ THIS - DID BAXTER TELL YOU ABOUT IT - NO WAY-

Mn ore price to push up next quarter
2007-5-31 10:52:41 BEIJING (Asian Metal) 31 May 07 –
Manganese ore tightness is getting worse and some participants are already airing producers are bend on increasing price by almost 50%, however, all attempt to confirm from producers failed. According to manganese alloy producer in India, manganese ore producers in Australia have decided to increase price for next quarter by almost 50% due to shortage of material and increasing demand. Normally the company buy 7,000tpm but they are informed that cannot get up to that quantity, price now for July -August consignment is USD6-6.5/dmtu CIF Calcutta for lumpy 48% Mn. The domestic producers like Tata are not offering material for sales and other are selling limited quantity. A trader source in Singapore informed that in Shanghai ferroalloy summit, it was unanimously agreed by producers and consumers to hike standard grade manganese ore next quarter to USD6.5/dmtu CIF Chinese main port for 48% Mn, presently, price is stable and supply is still tight. Although manganese ore market is still tight, for prices to double next quarter would definitely worsen already volatile manganese alloy market.

RM8

1st-June-2007, 11:43 AM

Rimtalay - surely most shareholders especially the larger ones are aware of whats happening in the markets with maganese etc.

They will be expecting an adjustment to the offer terms before they accept. Doesn't the current share price reflect this?

Sainter

1st-June-2007, 11:45 PM

To put the 'offer' in perspective, basically Gilbertson wants to buy 3 of every 5 shares you own for $2.28. He will let you keep the other two which of course are worth the current market value. Remember, the company does not change one iota as a result of the deal getting up-just the personnel on the board (it becomes bigger and therefore more costly to maintain).
The 'promise' is a bigger company at some stage in the future, which hopefully means a loftier shareprice. Well, given you would have sold 3 of every 5 shares you own for $2.28, the remaining two of five shares need to appreciate in value, just to make up for the money you will lose if the deal gets up. That is, at a closing price today of $2.93, the new 'par' price would be $3.91-just to get the money back Gilbertson will take from you. It's not as if he's so poor he needs your charity, is it? VOTE NO!

current price 'par' price post deal (if it gets up)
2.28 2.28
2.30 2.33
2.40 2.58
2.50 2.83
2.60 3.08
2.70 3.33
2.80 3.58
2.90 3.83
3.00 4.08
3.10 4.33
2.93 3.91

Rimtalay

2nd-June-2007, 08:38 AM

Hi Sainter, yes you are 100% correct, I'd never thought about it like that before. I should have, because I am now used to Baxter's gobbledygook, mumbo jumbo and drivel about the manganese and chrome ore prices.
Why would anyone be so stupid as to sell their 3 shares to Gilbertson for $2.28/share.
The way manganese and chrome ore markets are going ConsMin will make a fortune FY08.
WE do however need NEW management.
Let's hope Baxter will fall on his sword when we vote NO.

Rimtalay

3rd-June-2007, 02:40 PM

Check out the CSM VOTE NO website. (http://www.usail2.com/manganese_chart_graph.htm)
latest manganese prices, chart and graph

http://www.usail2.com/manganese_chart_graph.htm
Please note that the increase from Jan 07 (US$2.75/dmtu) till today 1st June 07 (US$4.25/dmtu) is US$1.55/dmtu . This increase assuming similar costs will increase the profit by AUD$85 million FY08 for similar production as FY07.

hubisan

3rd-June-2007, 09:45 PM

I would like to insist that if the Pallinghurst deal happens you will get some cash (whatever the improved cash offer might be) and you will keep 40% of your shares. Then what will be the price of these shares afterwards? I TELL YOU that these shares will be worth less than what they are worth NOW. How much less? Very much less! Because these shares will be minority shares in a company managed by Pallinghurst. My valuation is that the share may LOOSE 50% of previous value. A minority share in general is at least -20% wrt a control share like the one you have now. But with a greedy investor like Pallinghurst (Do i have to prove that?) with well known connections to mining interest from third parties, (russian, AMCI, south african whatelse?) once they have control there is nothing that will prevent them from selling CONSMIN assets to friendly interests at discount price first. If you want a sign: AMCI has sold its Australian mining interests=> There is no prospect for any of these raiders to bring assets to CONSMIN but on the contrary it is likely that they will sell assets. Do you want to take the risk to mandate Pallinghurst to sell Consmin assets and give you charity? If you want to be a LOOSER you can say YES to any Pallinghurst deal where you become minority holder. My first message is: DO NOT VALUE the share they give you at the same price as the share they have taken from you. These two shares are totally different. If you do the computations with my guidance you will get a better idea of how much you loose. My second message is : IT IS NOT THE MOMENT TO SELL ANY CONSMIN share EVEN FOR 100% CASH. CONSMIN is in full recovery and has tremendous prospects of immediate PROFITABILITY (Our manganese M;INE is a CASHCOW) and future very profitable GROWTH (in nickel). CONSMIN has a future with more than 1 and maybe several Billion AU dollars. It is not possible to value all this upside in a CASH offer. I vote NO to ANY DEAL. The only thing I vote is to replace the management because they tried to fool us . REMEMBER a MINORITY share is WORTH LITTLE, your present share of UNCONTROLLED diversified mine is UNVALUABLE, means cannot be VALUED at PRESENT time. And the most useful thing to do is to connect shareholders together and prepare resolutions for the meeting.
By HUBISAN.
I can be contacted at: hubisan1asp@free.fr

hubisan

3rd-June-2007, 10:59 PM

1/ Who can pretend that he has reasons to trust, or that he can control, the future course of action of Pallinghurst and Mr Gilbertson to be in the interest of present CONSMIN shareholders?
SO why accept to become a minority holder of new Consmin controlled by Pallinghurst?

2/ Who is able to value the potential of Consmin NOW?
The nickel production could be twice or triple the current one within a few semesters. The prices of nickel managanese and chrome are exploding. Many signs show that this may last. The cumulative effect of all that is so important on the valuation of Consmin that no bidder can value all this upside. So why sell now?

3/ What better investment for your money do you have if you sell COnsmin?
We are between Chinese demand and Australian ore? What better place to be? Think high prices won't last?
The response from CVRD on manganese is clear. They are not impressed by volatility of demand and price ; they shutdown production in order to reorganise and reduce costs. They are not afraid of loosing "a time window of high prices": a clear sign that the power is to the producers and high prices of manganese are here to stay. We do not need Palinghurst to get more pricing power on manganese price CVRD does the work for us.
The case for future profitability of nickel and chromium at Consmin is also clear to me.
Consmin doesnot need cash. The managenese mine is now a very big CASHFLOW and even excellent profit. And the life index of this mine is increasing going forward with exploitation!
We do not need projects nor assets for growth. Nickel assets have plenty of upside. Consmin has everything except a management working in the interest of shareholders.

4/ Why not consider to replace this management who tries to fool you institutional shareholders and us ?

5/ Why not fight the offer on the public place to get a better offer at least?
A simple public statement from a major institutional holder could turn all this mess down and would also trigger further recovery of the share.
The share is down because the market fears that a proposal as weak as the Pallinghurst one may have some chances to be successful with some hike in the cash fraction of the price.

Final comment :
Large institutional shareholders are responsible for their vote and they must vote on behalf of the people who give them money. If they agree to the deal they will be accountable for that. My perception is that if they accept the deal it can be questionned whether they themseves act in the best interest of the people who give them money to invest.
Minority holders of Consmin may ask that also.

Hubisan

Rimtalay

5th-June-2007, 01:55 PM

(AMM) No escape from manganese beast: traders
New York 04 June 2007 21:15
U.S. silicomanganese prices spiked again Monday as spot sales ploughed through 90 cents per pound on a scarcity of domestic supply and critical lack of imports from China. Spot silicomanganese is now trading between 90 and 96 cents per pound in the United States, up from a previous range of 84 to 90 cents per pound. One trader, who reported selling a small tonnage at around $1.05 a pound, said that truckload sales of alloy are now being offered at a minimum of 95 cents per pound. A manganese ore shortage in China has sent the price of all manganese alloys and metal soaring, limiting exports to the United States and leaving customers scrambling to get their hands on material. "There is just nothing available," a second trader said. "In China, the demand side is strong internally and on the ore side there is a shortage, so prices are high and (U.S.) traders are sitting on the sidelines because they don't have the capital to bring in any material." The country's largest producer of the alloy, Eramet Marietta Inc., is unable to offer any material on the spot market. The company's facility in Marietta, Ohio, is reportedly running at capacity following an unplanned six-week outage that began in early March. However, it has not withdrawn a force majeure declaration from that period, and sources said it is stockpiling any excess material it makes so that it can continue to satisfy contracts when one of its furnaces is taken down for a major rebuild later this year. The company isn't expected to offer material on the spot market until 2008, a source close to Eramet Marietta said. Historically, high silicomanganese prices have compelled users to switch out of the alloy and substitute it with a combination of ferrosilicon and high-carbon ferromanganese. But the market hasn't witnessed a wave of substitution because the manganese ore shortage in China has also underpinned nearly record highs for ferromanganese, while ferrosilicon is also pricey by historic standards.
U.S. high-carbon ferromanganese is now trading hands between $1,300 and $1,600 per long ton, just $200 shy of its $1,800-per-ton record set in April 2004. And market players said it is just a matter of time before all manganese alloys breach U.S. records. "There is nothing on the horizon that is going to save the consumer," the second trader said. "In 2004 a handful of producers came onboard to increase production, but this time we're not going to see any increase in domestic production." "You can only substitute with what is available and right now everything is very tight," a producer said. "China has a monopoly on ferrosilicon so you're going to run into the same problems with getting that material into the country." Spot ferrosilicon has climbed rapidly in the past week to trade between 62 cents and 72 cents per pound, up from a previous range of 59 cents to 61 cents per pound. "China's offering at numbers in the high 60s, so you have to be over that in order to be profitable here," the first trader said. A tender issued by Gerdau Ameristeel Corp. for a large quantity of high-carbon ferromanganese and silicomanganese is due Tuesday, a pair of traders said. "Gerdau's out this week and what they get will influence high-carbon ferromanganese, silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices," the second trader said.

kerosam

6th-June-2007, 08:55 PM

hi CSM-faithfuls,

quite a drop from the high $2.90s today. a normal retrace or pple pulling out?

i hold.

Rimtalay

7th-June-2007, 02:51 PM

Read the AFR tomorrow.
You'll be glad that you hold CSM, the good news can be covered up for only so long

questionall_42

7th-June-2007, 04:14 PM

Read the AFR tomorrow.
You'll be glad that you hold CSM, the good news can be covered up for only so long

That's an intiguing statement Rimtalay. I have really appreciated yr posts in this thread; so, would care to enlighten us on tomorrow's news in the AFR?

Rimtalay

7th-June-2007, 07:32 PM

Rimtalay

7th-June-2007, 07:51 PM

DID YOU KNOW MANGANESE IS UP & CSM IS MAKING A FORTUNE? NO! YOU DIDN'T HAVE A CLUE. WHY? CONSMIN management don't want to tell you and they are trying to cover up the facts because they want this deal with Gilbertson. WHY? Rod Baxter gets to keep his job and will be elevated to MD of the New ConsMin.
This information is from Ryan's Notes Metal Trading Report
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.9 5.2 6/5/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.9 5.2 6/1/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.7 5 5/25/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.7 5 5/22/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.35 4.6 5/18/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.2 4.3 5/15/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 4.2 4.3 5/11/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 3.8 4 5/8/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 3.6 4 5/4/2007
Manganese - RN 48% manganese ore $/MnU 3.2 3.6 5/1/2007
Note a 54% rise low side and 45% rise high side in just over the month
REMEMBER US$1.00/dmtu increase = AUD$54 million extra pretax profit FY for ConsMin, and we have just seen a US$1.70/dmtu increase in just one month and it's about to blow through the roof.
www.asianmetal.com is talking about US$8/dmtu in the near future.

RM8

7th-June-2007, 09:58 PM

Read it tomorrow in the AFR, it only costs $2.50, then you'll know the whole story. I guess it will tell you that manganese has gone up 100% and that ConsMin management are trying to hide the news.

But since I didn't write the story, then I'll have to wait like you.

$2.70 actually, but thanks for the heads up Rimtaley, I'll look out for it.

Sounds like Baxter needs to go for a row ;)

Rimtalay

7th-June-2007, 10:00 PM

www.metal-pages.com 7th July 07
"Manganese alloys continued to move down slowly as the demand was not as strong as it wascouple of months. Domestic steel mills that are facing increased export duty on steel products
on expensive raw materials hence the market came into a deadlock. But the general consensus market would move down slowly further in the following weeks and a plummet is being values for manganese ore, which is being quoted in a range between RMB62-65/mtu in the spothigh grade (Mn 48%) lumpy material."

"Manganese ore (Aus 48% Min) Rmb62-65/mtu Rmb62-65/mtu "

NOTE: Rmb 62-65/dmtu is = US$8.10 -US$8.49/dmtu.
NOTE: over US$2.00/dmtu every US$1.00/dmtu = AUD$54 million pretax profit for ConsMin

Rimtalay

8th-June-2007, 09:03 AM

Sorry it is $2.70 to retail customers. It's only $2.50 wholesale.
Still its worth spending your $2.70 then.

The important thing is the story is in the AFR
'ConsMin sweats on Ore prices'
Key Points
* An offer for Consolidated Minerals now looks low
*The board faces criticism for endorsing the bid

The action will really start when the scheme documentation hits the deck.
The game will then begin in earnest.

Rimtalay

8th-June-2007, 09:20 AM

Hi all, this will save you the $2.70 for the AFR

ConsMin sweats on ore prices
Michael Vaughan
Release of documentation supporting Brian Gilbertson’s play for control of Consolidated Minerals is days away and it looks like the manganese price might have mciii- hers of the board sweating.
Not for the reasons one might expect: the rising price of the steel- making metal is in danger of giving more ammunition to those who argue the board-endorsed Gilbertson bid is too low.
Last year, a weak price for manganese was the main factor in a $50 million drop in ConsMln’s full- year earnings, causing the company to record its first loss since 1999.
In stark contrast, the manganese price has surged in the past two months in a run brokers at Macquarie Research described as “remarkable” this week.
ConsMin is trying to complete a transaction with Pallinghurst Resources, of which Mr Gilbertson, the one-time chief executive of BlIP flilliton, is chairman.
The deal would give Pallinghurst 60 per cent of the company.
Pallinghurst has offered ConsMin shareholders $1.38 and two shares in the new company for every five shares they hold.
The offer originally had a nominal value of $128 but a rise in the ConsMin share price means it was worth $2.50 yesterday.
The transformation Mr Gilbert- son has promised to bring to the company has widespread support but some analysts and shareholders believe his price is too low.
He plans to increase ConsMin’s manganese production to take its share of the wotid’s high-grade supply to more than its 10 per cent
Unlike nickel or zinc, manganese is not traded on an exchange.
• An offer for Consolidated Minerals now looks low.
• The board faces criticism for endorsing the bid.
Buyers and sellers of the metal settle through over-the-counter contracts or on a small spot market.
After the 2006 loss, ConsMin decided to stop issuing profit forecasts and instead give price expectations and production forecasts.
“The company believes that through providing forecasts of production and costs, along with the regular reporting of commodity prices attained by the business, analysts and investors will be better positioned to have an informed view of the profit outlook,” ConsMin said last August
The company’s most recent guidance -For manganese prices finishes at the end of the month. ConsMin expects to receive an average price of about $US2.50 per dry metric ton unit, or DMTUt
The full-year average price is forecast at $US2.30 a DMTU.
Reports of prices into China of between $US5 and $US&50 have surfaced recently, although that price includes cost, insurance and freight charges.
ConsMin does not include such costs in its contracts meaning it receives a lower headline price.
About 50 per cent of ConsMin’s sales go to China and it negotiates prices on a quarterly contract It expects to produce 900,000 tomes to 925,000 tonnes in fiscal 2007.
“Discussions for the next quarter’s pricing will be concluded later this month, at which time we will update the market on pricing should that be required,” ConsMin’s general manager for marketing, Peter Allen, said.
Meanwhile, ConsMin’s under- performing nickel business should also have received a boost, as the company is expected to rmalise all its hedging arrangements.
At the start of the June quarter, the company had just 180 tonnes hedged at $13.52 a pound.
More than 1000 tonnes of nickel should be produced this quarter and prices are now $24.55 a pound.
The Atathan Finandal Review also understands the company has made some promising drillinghits at Widgiemooltha.
ConsMin’s share price closed up 3$ at $2.80 yesterday.