FAR - FAR Limited

[doctorj]

This oil/gas coy has been around for donkey's years with a share price that has made a few solid runs over the years only to fall back down again. It's currently sitting just shy of 8c up a cat's whisker on some unexpected preliminary good news today. The rumour mill has been working over time on this one and results of its drilling at Welder Ranch (TX), along side a large gas hole owned by Santos, are due in the next week or so. All indications are that the news will be very positive. Their options that expire in July are trading at a premium to the share price of about a cent.

They are expecting to begin production at Bay Courant in the next few weeks and they expect to begin drilling in February on another hole where the target it 3-5mill barrels (one sharescene poster claims this could be worth about 31.2m to FAR and 16.5cps - I've not checked the maths though this clearly does fall in to the too good to be true dept.)

Here's the chart. I'm considering going long on FAR but am waiting for the Technical Entry. Your thoughts and comments are greatly appreciated.

[doctorj]

I don't suppose anyone has any more insight into this?

[RichKid]

FAR looking a bit toppy to me with those last few candles looking spikey. Not much volume either. Bottom of last run is near long term support next time it approaches/bounces off that may be a lower risk entry. Last run was above the long term support though, maybe it'll become parabolic instead of linear support. Not too keen on the chart atm due to better candidates but if it breaks free on volume from last week's high I'll be impressed.

[doctorj]

Volume is the issue I feel with FAR. There aren't that many shares on offer when compared with other companies of a similar cap and many are tightly held. This is the only thread on FAR as best I can tell - certainly the only one I've made. The $0.001 climb and the low liquidity is the killer for this stock. Never the less, they seem to have a lot of potential in the ground. Do you have experience in trading (or investing) in tightly held stocks?

[RichKid]

This is the only thread on FAR as best I can tell - certainly the only one I've made. .... Do you have experience in trading (or investing) in tightly held stocks?

Sorry about the mention of the thread, I got mixed up, I edited it out.

I avoid thinly traded/tightly held stocks as I'm worried about slippage, large spreads, unmanageable volatility etc. Volume is not the best indicator on thinly held stocks imo so you'll be going on price unless you're watching everyday and buy in on a one day spike on high volume, another reason I avoid em as I don't day trade.
My basic view is: better candidates elsewhere, don't fall for the stock, it's just a graph with numbers and lines, find a prettier picture.

Having said all that I bet FAR will just go through the roof ; ) to prove me wrong.

[doctorj]

Forgive me for obsessing, but would this look like a cup and handle to you guys? Someone asked this over at sharescene, with a query on the tiny handle.

[doctorj]

Time to mention this one again. Welder Ranch has proven to be a nice, unexpected bonus for FAR and has provided a basis for it to break out from its 9 year down trend today. Dune Energy, FAR's partner has requested no more updates on their joint project until target depth is reached and the well evaluated. Early problems were caused by significant amounts of gas coming through the side of the well. A concrete liner has since been run successfully and they have begun drilling to target depth of 13,000ft. Welder Ranch is on the property next door to a significant Gas project owned in part by STO.

Last week FAR has begun a series of broker presentations, which by all accounts has been very well received and has coincided with some good price action.

FAR has been around a long time, has an established cash flow and has several drills planned over the coming 12 months. Bay Courant is due soon, and SGT is waiting for a rig for spudding. SGT is hoped to have "company maker" potential for FAR due to its geology, but in the meantime Welder Ranch offers a nice bonus.

For those interested in options, there is FAROA with a July Expiry and a 7c strike price. At today's open they had about a 1c time premium in their price. As of close today, they have no premium, last trade at 3.5c.

This definately is no NMS, but its fundamentals are very positive and technically, the break from the down trend is certainly not a negative. Expect some volatility, particularly until Welder Ranch's results are released. In the meantime Dune Energy (DENG) might provide some more indication to FAR's short term direction.

---
Disclosure: I hold FAR and FAROA. The warning to do your own reseach, as below, counts double for companies like this. Remember if there was no risk, the price would never go up - or down for that matter.

[canny]

Hi doctorj
I've been a long term holder of FAR and expect to see it up in the mid teens fairly shortly.
Next week should give us the end result of Welder - the broker presentation was great and triggered some healthy buying.
Anyone buying in now should be pretty pleased with themselves over the next few months in my opinion.

[doctorj]

It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings for FAR after this annoucement from its partner at Welder.


HOUSTON, TX--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 14, 2005 -- Dune Energy, Inc. ("Dune" or the "Company") (OTC BB:DENG.OB - News) announced today that it has made a significant natural gas discovery on its Welder Ranch property, located in Victoria County, Texas. The location for Dune's Vaquero #1 well was drilled utilizing 3D seismic interpretation, in conjunction with extensive geological and engineering analysis of leases acquired by the Company during 2003 and 2004.

The Vaquero #1 encountered significant stacked zones totaling more than 100 feet of gross pay at various depth intervals between 9,000 and 14,000 feet in the Middle Wilcox formation. In order to fully and efficiently develop the numerous pay horizons present, Dune intends to drill several offsetting wells. Testing of the highly geopressured well will commence immediately, to be followed by actual production and sale of natural gas.

Dr. Amiel David, Dune's President and Chief Operating Officer, stated, "We believe that the Vaquero #1 is one of the largest Middle Wilcox discoveries in the Tri-county area of south Texas in recent years. This discovery paves the way for Dune's extensive development program, which will lead to a surge in production and cash flow for Dune over the next several years. Our geological and geophysical team has also identified a number of other very large, high-quality, high-reserve potential prospects and leads on our Welder Ranch acreage. Dune will continue to review these amplitude anomalies, which could equal or exceed the success of the Vaquero #1."

Alan Gaines, Chairman and CEO, stated, "This enormous discovery validates our strategy with respect to the Welder Ranch, and will greatly increase our proved reserves. In addition to exploiting the numerous offset and twin locations relating to this discovery, Dune fully intends to drill other equally promising prospects on our acreage. By virtue of the success on our Welder Ranch acreage, together with the pending consummation of our acquisition of Barnett Shale natural gas properties announced on March 3, 2005, management is confident that Dune will quickly evolve into a sizeable independent exploration and development company."

Dune Energy, through its 85% owned subsidiary, holds a 64% working interest in the Vaquero #1 well and the surrounding Area of Mutual Interest (AMI).

Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/050314/082605.html

[canny]

Looking good - and a good mention in the fin review yeterday too.
I'm hanging out for the next ann.

[doctorj]

In light of NEO getting some air time, I thought I'd bring FAR up again, with mention of some news (or possibly rumours from hopeful, overzealous holders).


Their latest WEEKLY DRILLING UPDATE REPORT on the 6th, mentioned the SGT well for the first time this year, based on all the other updates in 05.

>> Schwing #1 Type: Gas wildcat Location: Bayou Choctaw, Iberville County, Louisiana. Status: Currently awaiting the drill rig to move onto site.
Target Depth: 11,600 feet
Working Interest: 50%
Operator: Spartan Operating Company.

This suggests that they have sourced a well sometime in the past week and are waiting its arrival.

However, FAR's activity update on the same day didn't mention this which is unfortunate... maybe they got out of bed late again hey?!
Last info we got from FAR was on the 18/3 saying they were still sourcing a rig, hopefully we have got one now and can expect drilling to commence soon.

Who knows. That said, SGT drilling in time for the options is massive, given the potential impact on a CPS basis of the SGT site. Information in the recent investor presentation indicates a potential impact of 100cps - either way, commencement of drilling should see some increased volatility for FAR and FAROA.

Attached are FAR and FAROA.

[el_ninj0]

In light of NEO getting some air time, I thought I'd bring FAR up again, with mention of some news (or possibly rumours from hopeful, overzealous holders).



Who knows. That said, SGT drilling in time for the options is massive, given the potential impact on a CPS basis of the SGT site. Information in the recent investor presentation indicates a potential impact of 100cps - either way, commencement of drilling should see some increased volatility for FAR and FAROA.

Attached are FAR and FAROA.

From their chart and the speculation that doctorj has made, i'd say they are on the up. The only problem I see with it at the moment is the volumes being traded. These are very small ammounts, averaging 500,000 shares traded a day.

There would need to be alot more interest in the stock before i'd jump in.

[canny]

Hoping for news soon - there was a lot of good 10c buying today - seems to be getting ready for next run.

[el_ninj0]

Hoping for news soon - there was a lot of good 10c buying today - seems to be getting ready for next run.

Still very low volume canny, not a good sign of interest in the stock. RTM had a quiet day and it traded at 18 million. I think i'd need some more interest from other buyers before I jumped in.

[doctorj]

Cluck Cluck!

No offence, but whenever I've posted on this thread, I have the overwhelming feeling that I know what it feels like to be Chicken posting on SBM (et al).

I'm sold on FAR fundamentally, but I won't bore the technically inclined here with those details. Suffice to say, it's happily been trading within a channel now for more than 3 years and it looks to be making a move towards testing the upper end of that band at 13c. Strong bounce off the lower end of the channel at 0.075c which coincided with the overhang from a large option conversion. Currently trading at 10c the Fibs suggesting its testing strong resistance - price action today and market depth as at close supports this. Volume today suggests increased interest in the stock with more than 12mill shares traded.

FAR has more than $10mill in the bank, a market cap of about $30 mill and is a self funded explorer with good leverage into drills planned within the next 3 months which combined are worth potentially in excess $1per share (assuming $20 oil and $5 gas). Risks to consider include the risk inherent in drilling for oil and gas and the tight rig market which may hinder FAR's ability to meet their timelines.

[doctorj]

Time for my monthly venture into the world of Chicken.

Being bought up in expectation of a very strong quarterly within the next week with Henry Hub gas prices doubling from USD$7 to $14. Lake Long now online should provide significantly more production to the balance sheet.

Unfortunately, FAR's management is content being the junior player in their drills and thus are unable to apply pressure to operators to get things done on time. SGT has site approvals and the site pad and infrastructure constructed, but is waiting for an available rig - it has been delayed now for a year. Drilling at Welder Ranch is still, as far as the market is aware waiting for fraccing which, analysts believe could increase production by several hundred percent at the site.

The media *****s at VPE have now turned their attention to drilling of Eagle 2 which is worth 25-30cps to FAR and is guaranteed a rig in the first week of November. The site has no exploration risk.

ROC advises that negotiations with Chinese govt are ongoing for the Beibu Gulf project.

Last word from WA-254P operator Apache is that drilling is still scheduled for this year - also potentially worth multiples of FAR's current price.

Finally, off topic - those that like to have a flutter with high risk/reward opportunities within oil and gas should check my tip for the stock tipping competition this month (GOP). They will be drilling a target worth 300-500cps to them within the next month.

[RichKid]

Well, doc has been so crazy (do I exaggerate?!) about this stock that I've had a recent look at it and it looks like it's going to go sideways for a bit, which I believe is the start of an accumulation pattern, a bit early to call yet, I bet the falling oil price isn't helping this but oil is still relatively high.

[RichKid]

Some charts on FAR, not the best quality I'm afraid but you should get the gist of it. Comments welcome, I'm encouraged by the low volume on declines and high volume on advances. Appears to be accumulation atm at a short term flip/flop line of regression at 10c, now acting as support. Downside is a dip to uptrend support but this trend is still strong imo.

[RichKid]

FAR monthly, shows substantial increase in volume in recent years and start of trend reversal. If this continues to form the upside will be explosive to over $1, that's just the theory, reality maybe different.

[doctorj]

At the risk of looking like an idiot... why?

[RichKid]

At the risk of looknig like an idiot... why?

Hi Doc,
Good question, the idiot is me for using the shorthand measure that sometimes comes with traditional TA. The estimate is from the height of that long descending wedge/descending triangle? combined with the base built over several years. The marked increase in volume is what makes me think it may be explosive, especially as it approaches that longterm downtrend resistance. I'm more inclined to see this as a bullish wedge (I couldn't draw the lower downward sloping trendline but that would show the wedge clearly, curren bottom line is horizontal support at all time low- it helps define th base).

Odds don't favour it overwhelmingly but it is, as with most things in TA, a possibility which has to be considered. Also $1 is that magic psychological figure, the measurement of the height would see it exceed $1 but that's high enough, if it makes it. Plenty of ASX resources jnrs have done similar things (on different chart patterns eg OEX) so don't be surprised.

But to get back to the question, that measure is not the most reliable, prices can wander around. If we consider it a descending triangle then an upside breakout could be expected to be weak or non-existent. I think it's the recent volume that really invalidates that pattern as it is the opposite of the theory which requires declinging volume as you approach the apex.

Hope this helps, I'm not that good at measuring and need to do more research into it. I like the increasing volume and the basing pattern but hard to trade as a one cent move can mean being stopped out for most. I'll be trading this on the dailies whenever possible. Currently hold, hence the chart work.

PS I just noticed the first half of the chart appears to have bars and the second bit seems to be candles, not sure why. Also story for co in early years maybe completely different to fundamentals for recent years but a chart is a chart and we look at price action not value or fundamentals.

[Kauri]

My take of FAR on monthlies..

[RichKid]

My take of FAR on monthlies..

Excellent work Kauri! I missed that completely, in fact, after having a look at the dalies (in one of my earlier posts), volume corresponds to the pattern with even a little characteristic 'bump' near the centre of the saucer/cup, this appears to be the handle and is forming on lower volume (as required) in a consolidation pattern just below the first lip. Not identical to the textbooks but very close and certainly tradeable for me, especially with the current entry set up. Will mention this in the saucer thread for the others too.
So it's looking good, nice to see different chartists at work.

Conventional trend lines do suggest the downside risk is a return to the lower trendline, again see my earlier daily, but 10c is holding well for now.

[doctorj]

For anyone interested, overnight Dune Energy announced a successful frac of Vaquero #2 at the Welder Ranch property. Flows are now at 3.25MMcfed, up from 2.0MMcfd pre-frac. This is worth $2-3mill per annum to FAR in profit.
In today's announcement, there were 3 other key points


FAR increases its participation in Welder to 9.69% after payback
DNE has other (imminent) drills planned at Welder Ranch
Distribution of profits from Welder is to commence


To my mind, the third one is the most important. This should see $1mill or there abouts booked in the December Quarterly Cashflow statement from Welder alone. To compare, the last quarterly booked about $700-800k in total from memory. This will see quarterly takings of in excess of $2mill, assuming I've interpreted the announcement correctly.

[RichKid]

I may have misread these last two weeks or so as accumulation when it's distribution but otherwise still bullish. Not holding atm but hope to enter again soon. Thanks for the updates doc, these fast movers require close watching.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)


Warning: ..... astrostuff ahead ..... :)

Hi folks,

FAR ... looking ahead, early February 06 looks positive,
with news/moves expected, on the following key dates:

03022006 ..... minor and positive news ... ???

08022006 ..... minor and positive ... ???

17-21022006 ...... minor and negative news ...???


Most of March 2006 may have negative sentiment:

10032006 ..... significant and negative light on FAR

14032006 ..... significant and negative news ... ???

24-27032006 ..... 2 cycles here, one negative and one
mildly positive ..... finance-related???

-----

28032006-22052006 ..... may be a mildly positive undertone
in FAR sentiment here, but there will also be a couple of
negative time cycles in April 2006, that may keep the share
price, flat .....:

07-10042006 ..... significant and negative news ... ???

24042006 ... significant and negative - finance-related?

280406-01052006 ..... significant and positive news ... ???

happy days

yogi

:)

[trader]

:)


Warning: ..... astrostuff ahead ..... :)

Hi folks,

FAR ... looking ahead, early February 06 looks positive,
with news/moves expected, on the following key dates:

03022006 ..... minor and positive news ... ???

08022006 ..... minor and positive ... ???

17-21022006 ...... minor and negative news ...???


Most of March 2006 may have negative sentiment:

10032006 ..... significant and negative light on FAR

14032006 ..... significant and negative news ... ???

24-27032006 ..... 2 cycles here, one negative and one
mildly positive ..... finance-related???

-----

28032006-22052006 ..... may be a mildly positive undertone
in FAR sentiment here, but there will also be a couple of
negative time cycles in April 2006, that may keep the share
price, flat .....:

07-10042006 ..... significant and negative news ... ???

24042006 ... significant and negative - finance-related?

280406-01052006 ..... significant and positive news ... ???

happy days

yogi

:)

So did the tea leaves say this or is this from a more reputable source like your crystal ball.

[doctorj]

So did the tea leaves say this or is this from a more reputable source like your crystal ball.

Gann may not be for everyone, but Yogi's been posting his thoughts on a range of stocks for quite some time and has a good rep for honesty, helpfulness and accountability. Sure, he can't tell us whether or not Eagle is going to flow at 1000bopd, but I don't think I'd be going too far out on a limb to say that even using Gann, he'd probably fair a whole lot better than a good deal of the traders here using their own preferred techniques.



03022006 ..... minor and positive news ... ???

08022006 ..... minor and positive ... ???

I'm not a great believer in Gann myself, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how these tie in with expected results from Eagle and SGT. How do you account for Eagle (being such a potentially profitable well) only read as a 'minor' price effect?

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... has been range-bound, since
mid-September 05, but has some potential
despite the negative cycles forecast for
April 2006 ..... :)

28032006-22052006 ..... may be a mildly
positive undertone in FAR sentiment here:

07042006 ..... significant and negative news
... low ???

10042006 ..... positive spotlight on FAR

24042006 ... significant and negative - finance-related?

280406-01052006 ..... significant and positive news ... ???

happy trading

yogi

:)

[beach]

hello yogi
interesting, if what you are saying the dates you have suggested would be smack bang on eagle1 well in USA letting us no if it is flowing oil at a good rate. i have a positive feel on this well on the other hand,, but not sure if FAR have other project that are happening in this time frame so you could be right, regards beach

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... a longer-term view shows us that this
stock has been building a monster inverted head
and shoulders, since 1999 ... along with our time
cycle analysis, we figure by March 2007, FAR will
be hot property ..... :)

Click here for a longer view on FAR ..... :) (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/8/farzoomout31032006-776990.pdf)

happy days

yogi

:)

=====

[IGO4IT]

Hi guys,

If I'm not mistaken, FAR wasn't mentioned before on ASF.

These guys imo have real potential, currently have like zillion projects running but most intrestingly the EAGLE project in JV with SUR, VPE & others who seems like coming to an end with a potential few bagger if oil flow rates are high enough.

I've been holding their shares for a while & to be frank they haven't had the best luck with their EAGLE drilling but they have a good story everytime they stuff up :)

would like to know if anyone here has thought on them.

cheers,

[Mumbank]

Hi Igo4it, I hold these as well as a speccie. Not sure what I think of them ATM. They don't move much on good announcements, although they have quite a few potentially good projects on the go. I guess they are those "hold and see" type shares and at the low price i'll wait a little longer if not I'm already in front so I'll flick them and find another speccie. :banghead:

[RichKid]

Doc J is the FAR guru here, should be back on board the good ship ASF soon, so stay tuned!

PS: to those who don't follow it FAR last traded at 13c

[IGO4IT]

Doc J is the FAR guru here, should be back on board the good ship ASF soon, so stay tuned!

PS: to those who don't follow it FAR last traded at 13c

I guess that was old news ( the 13.5c bit :) ), it closed yesterday on 14.5c & now EAGLE flow rates should take up to the next level which are supposed to be out tomorrow.

if flow rates are as promised (1000bpd), on other forums they estimated SP to be mid 20cs, good luck if anyone still holds & imo its at least worth a space on your watchlist if not to put some money in.

big projects in the cooking & they have a Senegal project that if could come thru before shareholders all die of heartattacks, it should take this company to a totally brand new level of $15-$20/share in few years time.

of course do your own research & look in particular for number of issued shares & compare to others ;)

cheers,

[powwww]

Hartleys have eagle at upto 40cps if the 1000bpd is achieved.

good luck to all that hold

[Bugger]

Far what a fantastic little oily - looking good imho in the next week with a well in china 12-6 with a possible play area of about 528m's, Eagle oil hopefully near completion, Kakwa gas in Canada, and Senegal oil field to 3d...............cheap now - not for long.

[RichKid]

Hey Doc, looks like your little baby is growing fast! Should be on a lot more peoples radars now.

[IGO4IT]

Hey Doc, looks like your little baby is growing fast! Should be on a lot more peoples radars now.

so far, FAR had been the highlight of 2006, the current price is still WITHOUT 3 projects to give results in next 2-3 weeks.

predicting what should happen here is pointless, tehnically we're in the blue skies now & we've just gapped on open on monday so we're expecting new high as well this week.

good luck if anyone had realised this one few months ago & well done! :xyxthumbs

[bionic]

Can anyone tell me what the capital raising will have on FAR share price
(I am pretty new to this)
i believe FAR has approx 300 million shares on issue and the raising will create another 93 million at a 14c/share price, which is quite a discount to the current trade price 21c
i would be most grateful for any views on the likely impact of the raising

[bionic]

Further FAR question
in todays news FAR say the Beibu block is potentially 1km square with approx 100metres of oil

this is my first attempt at this type of calculation (usually i tend to buy and sell on intuition) so please feel free to point out any discrepancies in teh calculaltions

approx barrel size 1x1x1.5m

approx field size 1000 x 1000 x 100

volume of barrel = 1.5m cube
field 1x10^8mcube

number of barrels in field = 1x10^8 / 1.5 = 66.6million

at 5% Fars div 3.33million barrels
or @65$ /barrel 216 million dollars

with 400million share this is therefore worth 54c / share
this seems a little to good to be true

i would be interested as to how others calculate value in this sort of instance
:confused:

[IGO4IT]

Further FAR question
in todays news FAR say the Beibu block is potentially 1km square with approx 100metres of oil

this is my first attempt at this type of calculation (usually i tend to buy and sell on intuition) so please feel free to point out any discrepancies in teh calculaltions

approx barrel size 1x1x1.5m

approx field size 1000 x 1000 x 100

volume of barrel = 1.5m cube
field 1x10^8mcube

number of barrels in field = 1x10^8 / 1.5 = 66.6million

at 5% Fars div 3.33million barrels
or @65$ /barrel 216 million dollars

with 400million share this is therefore worth 54c / share
this seems a little to good to be true

i would be interested as to how others calculate value in this sort of instance
:confused:

Oil in production is worth $12 - $20/barrel ON SITE depending on where you're digging & availabity of transportation & many variables etc....

you're calcuation is ok but you assumed barrel price too high.

the right calcuation of what its worth is 10c -12c/share.

as usual, I could be wrong, so none of posts could be taken as an indication to buy or sell & I hold shares in FAR.

[IGO4IT]

Can anyone tell me what the capital raising will have on FAR share price
(I am pretty new to this)
i believe FAR has approx 300 million shares on issue and the raising will create another 93 million at a 14c/share price, which is quite a discount to the current trade price 21c
i would be most grateful for any views on the likely impact of the raising

Hmmm...tricky question, but IMHO those who are buying now (buyers after last trading halt) had bought with news of placement being in place & also that managment is in favour of the placement.

SP as we all seen had taken off & gone so high while CONSIDERING the info of placement, so logically we would say that everyone is currently paying while knowing & expecting the placement to happen!

There is a problem.....the placement doesn't go thru until GM has the voting early June & it passes thru, so some of those who are buying now COULD be hoping for a rejection of the placement voted by shareholder, may be for it being too cheap at 13c/share or for whatever reason, but most likely everyone is now expecting the placement to take place as market reaction was very good to it.

One other thing, the placement may come in a time when market is not in a good mode, which happens sometimes & it could react negatively but even if that happens I don't think it will have a very big effect as in case of any dip there will be others waiting for buy on a bargain price, I'm actually in favour of a no reaction result as I think personally that current price had already factored the news of the placement in it.

cheers,

[bionic]

Many Thanks

[Bugger]

FAr, I hope you guys held your FAr if you did you should be making out like Bandits at .235 cents today....with more to come imho.

[Top Cat]

Bionic,

Try these calulations 1000x1000x100x6.2xAUD$36x2.5%x25%

These being the size of block, there are 6.289 barrels per cubic metre, say an in ground value of 40% of oil price, as generally used for inground value, (although US$20 is often used) converted to AUD, Far's share is 2.5% after Chinese take up their share and say they extract 25% of the field.

AUD$141,152,400 to FAR divided by 424 million shares = 33 cents per share. This is of course if the field covers the whole of the 1sq km of the block but then again it could be larger or smaller. So be conservative and say 50% of this then this becomes 16.5 cents per share. I believe that I read somewhere that official estimates put a find at between 6 and 10 cents per share. I don't believe that they thought that they would have a find as large as this. Anyway no matter what we value it at the market will decide in the end.

Holding FAR and out to buy more in the morning. :D Go FAR go!

[IGO4IT]

Bionic,

Try these calulations 1000x1000x100x6.2xAUD$36x2.5%x25%

These being the size of block, there are 6.289 barrels per cubic metre, say an in ground value of 40% of oil price, as generally used for inground value, (although US$20 is often used) converted to AUD, Far's share is 2.5% after Chinese take up their share and say they extract 25% of the field.

AUD$141,152,400 to FAR divided by 424 million shares = 33 cents per share. This is of course if the field covers the whole of the 1sq km of the block but then again it could be larger or smaller. So be conservative and say 50% of this then this becomes 16.5 cents per share. I believe that I read somewhere that official estimates put a find at between 6 and 10 cents per share. I don't believe that they thought that they would have a find as large as this. Anyway no matter what we value it at the market will decide in the end.

Holding FAR and out to buy more in the morning. :D Go FAR go!

Hi Bionic,

I'll be wishing that your calculations are accurate :), as you said what market is willing to pay is more important that what is the actual value of it.

......but i still think that your AUD$36/barrel is a bit rich :o

cheers,

[Top Cat]

IGO4IT,

I looked at an Aegis report for inground valuations. They say that a conservative in ground value of US$15 bbl or typically 40% of current oil price with an allowance for any price spike. So say we go for a conservative AUD$20 bbl then that equates to $0.18 per share. I would still be happy with that :)

[IGO4IT]

IGO4IT,

I looked at an Aegis report for inground valuations. They say that a conservative in ground value of US$15 bbl or typically 40% of current oil price with an allowance for any price spike. So say we go for a conservative AUD$20 bbl then that equates to $0.18 per share. I would still be happy with that :)

I think you're in the right track but how much EXACTLY will the market pay for it & when? this the question.

we had a trifecta with all 3 projects coming to action at same time, Eagle sounds like more trouble & this is my only worry at the moment...because I can't predict how market will react to its failure in case of a failure (mentioning that its very unlikely & we should only be waiting for flow rates NOT that we're expecting to have a dry hole!!)

so market paid imo for the average price for all 3 projects we have & any extra-ordinary performance from any of these projects could be a real breakout.

there should be an ann coming on Monday (Eagle related) & another should be on Friday (I think Beibu related), so we'll have a lot of fun next week :)

cheers,

[stiger]

Get with it .She is gonna BLOW.!!!! :D :D :D :eek:

[Mumbank]

I hope you're right. ALthough the way the market it, it will still show red!! Go FAR

[coffee]

Hello Farites,

We have come a long way since WR and Eagle as per the last post. We have a new FAR with a potential of a 50 cent SP in the next 8 months.

Cheers

Coffee :2twocents

[Porper]

Hello Farites,

We have come a long way since WR and Eagle as per the last post. We have a new FAR with a potential of a 50 cent SP in the next 8 months.

Cheers

Coffee :2twocents

I'd be very interested to know how you have calculated the 0.50 price in the 8 month time span.

If you could post your technical or fundamental analysis that would be great.;)

[coffee]

Porper,

I am being conservative with my 50 cent SP in 8 months.

see:

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys%20Research%20apr%202006.pdf

This report, I believe to be close to the mark and IMHO believe that FAR will be seen as a completely new entity in the market place apres June 9th. Once we have the Canadian and the China wells behind us, the platform for this new company image will be in place for a new type of investor that will be playing for big money, as opposed to the 10 - 15% profit takers we have been seeing in FAR over the last couple of years. I have invested heavily in this Company over the last 1 1/2 years and am very pleased with the management and forsight that ME has pulled off in the last few months. I hope I have answered your question with the Hartleys document. I have not been able to find another source.

Cheers
Coffee

[coffee]

Farites,

A quiet day on the FAR front

coffee

[Porper]

Farites,

A quiet day on the FAR front

coffee


I had these and sold out when the correction started, but they are on my watchlist still.

Thing I don't like is the fact that there is a gap there and I am not convinced that it is a breakaway either.Looks like it has a chance of getting filled to me.

[IGO4IT]

I had these and sold out when the correction started, but they are on my watchlist still.

Thing I don't like is the fact that there is a gap there and I am not convinced that it is a breakaway either.Looks like it has a chance of getting filled to me.

Porper,

fundementally, FAR has 3 big events coming up from Kakwa & Beibu & of course the same old EAGLE.

believe it or not, they're lucky to get all 3 of them happening at the same time this week or early next week, reasonably we should expect news from at least 1 this week.

I believe its a breakaway gap & could be filled as 90% of gaps I seen regardless of what they are get filled but I don't think it will be filled any time in the short term. FAR has too many fundemental events on the short term that they will always find something to be exicted about! may be in few months time when it gets slower then some wil get bored & take their profits away.

cheers,

[coffee]

Farites,

I see Eagle is about to begin its testing with the completion rig in 10 days, June 11-12th. At last....

Kakwa will no doubt have an ann out end of next week and China close behind. If we do as expected here Farites we'll be sitting on a solid 25 - 30 cent SP. I believe from what I'm seeing the SP has factored in the dilution of the 95-100M shares @ .13.

The market is content with the 25% increase and the The New Sophisticated Investors from overseas. I know they will be happy.

Cheers
coffee

[Porper]

Porper,

fundementally, FAR has 3 big events coming up from Kakwa & Beibu & of course the same old EAGLE.

believe it or not, they're lucky to get all 3 of them happening at the same time this week or early next week, reasonably we should expect news from at least 1 this week.

I believe its a breakaway gap & could be filled as 90% of gaps I seen regardless of what they are get filled but I don't think it will be filled any time in the short term. FAR has too many fundemental events on the short term that they will always find something to be exicted about! may be in few months time when it gets slower then some wil get bored & take their profits away.

cheers,


Well, here is a chart for those interested.Very low volume at the moment indicating to me that we won't have an announcement in the near future.

A break of the triangle with volume would probably persuade me to jump on for a short term trade, otherwise I will leave well alone.In this market no news is bad news.:)

[coffee]

I had these and sold out when the correction started, but they are on my watchlist still.

Thing I don't like is the fact that there is a gap there and I am not convinced that it is a breakaway either.Looks like it has a chance of getting filled to me.


I take my hat off to you. Your understanding of market shift is much better than mine. Today we are at .145 with no bottom defined. I can't see why this has happened, but it has. The cap raising at .13 has had an effect possibly, but the good news has had little positive push today. What is the matter out there. The average sell was 50K/person which means to me the punters are frightened again and decided today was jump off day. Go figure..we have 3 beautiful wells coming commercial over the next month and these punters think they have a better place for their hard earned. What are your thoughts Porper I'm listening.

coffee

[IGO4IT]

I take my hat off to you. Your understanding of market shift is much better than mine. Today we are at .145 with no bottom defined. I can't see why this has happened, but it has. The cap raising at .13 has had an effect possibly, but the good news has had little positive push today. What is the matter out there. The average sell was 50K/person which means to me the punters are frightened again and decided today was jump off day. Go figure..we have 3 beautiful wells coming commercial over the next month and these punters think they have a better place for their hard earned. What are your thoughts Porper I'm listening.

coffee

Coffee,

You're talking about FAR as if its a special drop case while all other resouces are going up like crazy.

The market is in correction (or something else that destroys prices of all resources), when it finishes then we can try to isolate each company as a case by itself.

Right now, all are resources are almost half what they were few weeks back & the hit came on the big blue chips before the smalls.

Why FAR is falling? can you tell me why others are falling? :)

cheers,

[Matt123]

The price has rebounded slightly, but not as much as I anticipated. Given a favourable market, the price should head back to the 18c it was before the drop, perhaps more. Any news that comes out of FAR about drilling always seems to be good, and there will hopefully be some soon :)

[coffee]

I'm tempted to top up this week knowing there is going to be an ann out shortly. If it comes out prior to yr, end I'll jump on but if there is no news by 2PM June 30th I think you will see a few mill traded down by those that bought in the 20's on the second week of May. That might be worth sitting close to the monitor that day to pick up some at 12 cents.

coffee

[coffee]

I'm tempted to top up this week knowing there is going to be an ann out shortly. If it comes out prior to yr, end I'll jump on but if there is no news by 2PM June 30th I think you will see a few mill traded down by those that bought in the 20's on the second week of May. That might be worth sitting close to the monitor that day to pick up some at 12 cents.

coffee


Well I got in at 14 cents, happy with that. Now I anticipate a 20 cent move by the end of next week. Still have good reason to see FAR reach 45 -50 cents before Christmas. The BG is going to prove to be very lucrative for FAR even at 2 1/2%. With Gas prices in Canada now going into the winter shortly we will see an all time high. Kakwa is our footprint into the Canadian marketplace. Eagle ......in the background now, flick it. Apart from causing a whole lot of stress and cost blowouts I believe over a short period of time it will pay for itself once we see the oil flows. ie 500 - 800 bopd. It's there.

In Summary: Anyone getting on now will have a bit of fun..

Coffee :2twocents

[doctorj]

According to the VPE presentation today, Eagle is still going ahead this August, with an expectation of Eagle holding 44Mill bboe (p10). A bit misleading, as they state it as a p10 "target". Not sure what that's meant to mean, its either p10 or not, but anyway - time to move on.

Yes Eagle has caused all manner of problems and I for one will be suprised to ever see FAR make a buck from it, but I believe the market has already discounted FAR heavily for this and should the lower Gatchell produce from the 72m behind casing and 105m open hole (gross pay, already logged) at the expected rate, its worth something in the order of ~30cps (44Mill bboe, AUD$20/boe in ground value). In terms of risk/reward, there's not much froth built in for Eagle, but should the operator get their act together there's significant reward for all participants.

The real interest for me lies in the Beibu Gulf discovery. The exploration well found 80.5m of net oil pay and flowed at 5,750 bbls a day over a 2 week test.

From ROC's quarterly report today:

Appraisal of the Wei 6-12S-1 continued with the first sidetrack well, Wei 6-12S-1a, reaching a Total Depth of 2,530 mBRT. Initial analysis indicated that the five cores cut display similar reservoir quality to the discovery well. A second sidetrack well, Wei 6-12S-1b, commenced drilling on 13 July. The well was designed to intersect all the reservoir intervals seen in the upper part of the original discovery well downdip from that well. On 31 July, the second sidetrack well had reached a revised Total Depth of 2,950 mBRT and logging was underway. Preliminary appraisal results appear to range from as expected to somewhat encouraging.
A few things to note, they actually continued drilling a long way below planned target depth in order to intersect the entirity of each of the three intervals intersected in the current well. Also, it was described as "encouraging", despite ROC's typical conversative line.

Drilling further than planned means one of two things - either they didn't find what they expected and drilled a little deeper to make sure or they had to drill deeper than planned to measure the extent of the downdip to update reserve estimates. You be the judge.

Either way, at the initially announced 55Mill bbl discovery @ 5% WI to FAR, that's still 12cps (using the same assumptions as above).

Exciting times ahead for FAR, lets see if that excitement bares fruit this time.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... as requested, here's some astroanalysis,
revealing some key dates ahead, with August 2006
looking quite a positive month ..... :)

August 2006 ..... mostly positive:

11-14082006 ..... positive spotlight on FAR

22-23082006 ..... expecting positive news initially,
but a negative cycle on 23082006
may spoil the party.

29082006 ..... positive time cycle here ... finances???

-----

September 2006 ..... mostly negative:

07092006 ..... negative news here???

10-18092006 ..... though there's underlying positive
sentiment, we will likely see the price
trade flat-to-down, during this time.


12092006 ..... negative spotlight on FAR

22092006 ..... negative financials???

25092006 ..... minor and positive news expected.

-----

October 2006 ..... mostly minor and positive:

04-09102006 ..... 2 cycles may trigger aggressive rally.

13102006 ..... minor and positive time cycle here.

16102006 ..... minor and positive ... finances???

18102006 ..... minor

-----

November 2006 ..... all minor cycles:

07112006 ..... minor news???

09112006 ..... minor

13112006 ..... minor

21112006 ..... minor

-----

December 2006 ..... very positive, before December solstice.

01-04122006 ..... positive and finance-related???

12122006 ..... spotlight on FAR

21122006 ..... significant news???

21-29122006 ..... some underlying negativity here,
with some longer-term plans likely to come into focus??

27122006 ..... minor

-----

January 2007:

02012007 ..... short, sharp rally ???

-----

Looking further out, March-June 2007 will likely be a
roller-coaster ride for FAR.

Expecting some significant and negative news, around
September 2007 equinox, then some significant and
positive news, near the end of October 2007.

So in summary, we can expect some good trading
opportunities in FAR, starting this month ..... !~!

happy trading

yogi

:)

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... as posted above on 02082006, we will be
alert for some positive news/moves early this week,
probably on Monday 14082006 ..... :)

Engulfing low last Friday, with good supporting volume
is a good sign going into this week, too ..... maybe
traders are already anticipating some good news,
out of the current GOM well ... ???

happy days

yogi

:)

[coffee]

Yogi

Pack your bags :nuts:

Coffee

[coffee]

lets hope the correction is over . And we can start seeing the Sun. Looks good , Wish I had some more $ to put down. Although I have lots of $$$$ on this one.

[stiger]

You have to have the patience of a Saint with this co .Cheers Dyor. :o

[coffee]

The Gods say patience is rewarded :) Cheers C

[stiger]

The Gods say patience is rewarded :) Cheers C
I'll say ann released on london xe under code EME [courtesy rice01 hc] Dyor .Cheers.

[doctorj]

I'm not sure what you mean exactly.

Empyrean did release an announcement, but aside from confirmation that a rig arrived as scheduled, there's no new information in it.

FAR is interesting. They've known about the oil at eagle for some time now and that's not helped the SP. Also, the sp is now 50% off the highs when the Beibu discovery was announced.

The potential impact of Eagle on FAR is well documented - holders have been looking at it for some time. Look further back in this thread for more information. Beibu is incredibly interesting - latest tentative comments from the JV suggest 60-100mmbo in place. If they can recover at anything like what's happening from adjacent fields, they're looking at up to 60% recoverability.

The monkey on FAR's back is cash flow. The market is punishing oilers that don't have it at the moment on the basis that raising capital will increase in difficulty going forward. While FAR is nicely cashed up at the moment, it will only stay that way until dec/jan when they have to pay the remaining for the 3d seismic off Senegal. Production from Eagle could provide the impotus for a rerating - but as I've said, people, including myself, have been saying that for well over a year.

[stiger]

They released a fair bit of info today .It takes some sifting through though.Cheers.Dyor

[doctorj]

Good to see some activity at Lake Long and West Andrews and more at WR and Kakwa.

There's also a completely unsubstantiated rumour flying around that EGO might spud EP104 in the next month.

It's also good to see that VicPet got their act together and got an announcement out. Would have preferred to see it at open however.

[Matt123]

Finally some movement! Could be the start of a new uptrend back into the midteens, possibly high teens if good news follows.

[constable]

Finally some movement! Could be the start of a new uptrend back into the midteens, possibly high teens if good news follows.

Even now ,6 months later you still wouldnt be 100% sure of it doing anything.
However Citigroup have picked up 5.3% of the stock ( ann yesterday) and it looks to be having some impact on the sp up to 15c. Graph has been trending upwards since late march and could be breaking out of a period of consolidation.

[rocka1]

I've just noticed volume has hit almost 8 mil price has gone to .16 I've jumped on hopefully for a ride up in my opinion DYOR Rocka

[rocka1]

Does anyone have any info on why FAR's volume was over 12 million today? It is hovering around the .15 mark and volume has been picking up for 5 straight days.

[doctorj]

You'll have to forgive the length of this post (Edit: I'm going to split them up on second thought). Amongst all the rambling, I hope you manage to learn something. Much of the Tullow-research noted in this post was completed by a chap named Barry, so to you (I'm sure you read this), thanks.

First of all, you'll see on the attached chart the interest kicked in on Friday, followed by an aftermarket 603 (substantial holder) notice released by an english law firm called Baker and McKenzie. The announcement specifies the shares are owned by an english fund called evolution and held by Merrill Lynch.

This spurred a lot of interest on Monday (nearly 2x the 200d average volume) for a couple of reasons. 1) It is the first substantial holder in FAR and 2) the purchase history provided in the form shows that the firm has been purchasing aggressively for a number of months. Subsequent analysis of the course of sales suggests that on some days they accounted for >80% of the daily volume.

Some time on Monday afternoon, another substantial shareholder announcement was made - this time by Citibank. The holder was announced to be Citicorp nominees. Tuesday was exciting again, with a break of resistance and 2.5x the long term average volume, on face value, because of a second substantial holder in the space of a couple of days.

This is where it gets a little weird and fact begins to blur into suspicion.

Closer inspection of the substantial holder notice revealed they were for exactly the same number of shares. It's unlikely that two different owners of shares both became substantial holders of shares within days, so why two notices, from two different parties showing the same shares owned by two different parties?

Calls to Citi/ML revealed they were for the same stake and they had received a legal opinion that they should re-release the 603 and Baker McKenzie made a mistake. So what is Baker McKenzie's role? Why does someone want to obscure the ownership of the stake? Why are both Citi and ML involved?

Stay tuned...

[doctorj]

So what is Baker McKenzie's role? Why does someone want to obscure the ownership of the stake? Why are both Citi and ML involved?Remember this is where fact begins to blur with speculation.

Back in April, FAR MD Michael Evans announced in Resource Stocks mag that his aim was to replicate Hardman in being bought out as a result of their African acreage. It so happens that Baker McKenzie was one of the top legal advisers on M&A in Australia and the UK-based firm promotes heavily in the oil/gas market. Also, Merrill Lynch was the bank acting on behalf of Tullow in their T/O of HDR. So the conclusion I have come to (and looking at the market, so have others) is that someone's making a move on FAR or atleast building up a strategic stake in preparation for one. They would have motive to obscure the ownership through nominees and different brokers to reduce takeover speculation and make the eventual move cheaper. Essentially Baker McKenzie stuffed up by releasing the 603 - it should never have seen the light of day.

It may not be Tullow either. The likes of Dana (Tullow's partner in a neighbouring block) or BG who both were rumoured to be sniffing around HDR and missed out. Dana have also done a stack of work on large oil accumulation in a block in the south of the basin.

So what do "they" get for the $60mill odd it would cost to buy FAR at the moment?

The Senegal acreage is in the same basin as Hardman and the blocks (FAR 30%) had previously had 1bbo (1 billion barrels) of oil defined by Shell in the 70s by 2d seismic. FAR have just completed advanced 3d seismic over many of the larger targets and are in the process of generating drilling targets. Based on comparable blocks in the area that have completed 3d seismic and have a 2-3 200MBO+ recoverable targets mapped, you could argue a valuation of $500M for the Senegal blocks. In the last round, similar blocks went for ~$1b signing bonus only which would value FAR's 30% stake in the block at least at $300M.

They also have a 5% in the Beibu Gulf project with the likes of ROC, PSA & HZN which will be developed in the next year. This will most likely reduce to 2.5% stake when CNOOC exercise their option to farm in, but even then and using ROC's typically conservative figures for oil recoverable, it's not too hard to arrive at a valuation of $20M.

So, starting with a $60M cap, take out $20M for Beibu $10M for the cash balances. Their producing assets bring in about $4Mpa (worth $20M on a PE of 5), leaving just $10M for their acreage at South Gross Tette, all of the Suncor Canada acreage, Waller, Eagle and their drilling in Arc's EP104 next month, worth up to a combined $0.59cps if successful ($230M) to FAR as per the latest StockAnalysis report by Peter Strachan.

Essentially, this leaves a value of 0 for EV and Senegal - to my mind they're getting a bargain.

This is all speculation. As YT has found out, there are many companies out there where you can argue that it should be worth much more. Whether or not that happens is another thing. Whether or not FAR realises much of that value now or not is up to Mr Market to decide, but for the moment, the significant holder notice and takeover speculation has set things on their way.

Technically we're seeing a break of the triangle with a gap up and about 9-10x the long term average volume. Close today was a little unconvincing, but course of sales shows the sell down was on very small volume. EW suggests it seems to have traced out ABC and is now beginning a wave 1 and a larger order wave 3. I make out the target for the break of the triangle to be about 18.5, but with large numbers of stale holders from the May 06 highs, I think that might be tough in the near term.

Disc: I own a stack of FAR shares.

[ta2693]

You'll have to forgive the length of this post (Edit: I'm going to split them up on second thought). Amongst all the rambling, I hope you manage to learn something. Much of the Tullow-research noted in this post was completed by a chap named Barry, so to you (I'm sure you read this), thanks.

First of all, you'll see on the attached chart the interest kicked in on Friday, followed by an aftermarket 603 (substantial holder) notice released by an english law firm called Baker and McKenzie. The announcement specifies the shares are owned by an english fund called evolution and held by Merrill Lynch.

This spurred a lot of interest on Monday (nearly 2x the 200d average volume) for a couple of reasons. 1) It is the first substantial holder in FAR and 2) the purchase history provided in the form shows that the firm has been purchasing aggressively for a number of months. Subsequent analysis of the course of sales suggests that on some days they accounted for >80% of the daily volume.
Citi and ML also the investo in ELK, what do you think? they are going to merge the two oil company? How much chance are there?
Some time on Monday afternoon, another substantial shareholder announcement was made - this time by Citibank. The holder was announced to be Citicorp nominees. Tuesday was exciting again, with a break of resistance and 2.5x the long term average volume, on face value, because of a second substantial holder in the space of a couple of days.

This is where it gets a little weird and fact begins to blur into suspicion.

Closer inspection of the substantial holder notice revealed they were for exactly the same number of shares. It's unlikely that two different owners of shares both became substantial holders of shares within days, so why two notices, from two different parties showing the same shares owned by two different parties?

Calls to Citi/ML revealed they were for the same stake and they had received a legal opinion that they should re-release the 603 and Baker McKenzie made a mistake. So what is Baker McKenzie's role? Why does someone want to obscure the ownership of the stake? Why are both Citi and ML involved?

Stay tuned...

"First of all, you'll see on the attached chart the interest kicked in on Friday, followed by an aftermarket 603 (substantial holder) notice released by an english law firm called Baker and McKenzie. The announcement specifies the shares are owned by an english fund called evolution and held by Merrill Lynch."
Doctorj May I ask where did you get the name of Baker and Mckenzie? I did not find their name in the announcement.

[ta2693]

Citigroup Global Markets Australia Holdings Pty Limited and Evolution Master Fund Ltd are also the two investo in ELK. Is it a coincidence of are they going to merge the two company or some other big company want to buy the ELK and FAR at the same time? Is it possible? How likely?

[doctorj]

The letterhead of the first of the substantial holder announcements was for the legal firm Baker & McKenzie.

[doctorj]

Citigroup Global Markets Australia Holdings Pty Limited and Evolution Master Fund Ltd are also the two investo in ELK. Is it a coincidence of are they going to merge the two company or some other big company want to buy the ELK and FAR at the same time? Is it possible? How likely?
Highly unlikely that the transactions are related in the way you suggest. If FAR is the target of a takeover, it'll be from another oiler interested or active in the horn region of Africa, not from a fund. I don't know much about Elk, but unless they have significant interests in Africa, its unlikely they're related.

[rub92me]

It looked like it was going on a run today, but was stopped in its tracks by big sellers selling into the temprorary strength. Looks like this will need substantial volume to get past the 16 cents for starters.
Only been holding this for about 6 weeks for the long term prospects of the Senegal block they have. At least I won't have to wait as long as some of the patient holders on this forum :D

[rub92me]

Uh oh. Trading halt just announced. I hope it's not the dreaded take-over just yet, but rather some further oil discoveries.

[ta2693]

Just a quick question. What is FARG stand for? I do not understand, is it a share or option or something else?

[doctorj]

Just a quick question. What is FARG stand for? I do not understand, is it a share or option or something else?
FARG are convertible notes. Pay about 10% from memory and were issued to fund the acquisition of the Senegal acerage.

[doctorj]

Uh oh. Trading halt just announced. I hope it's not the dreaded take-over just yet, but rather some further oil discoveries.
My advice is that its a friendly placement, most likely to "sophisticated investors" (not a ramp - up or down, it's in a halt at the moment and will come to market before comes out of halt). It makes sense to raise cash in the lead up to EP104, while its strong, but personally feel that a placement at 14-15c is cheap when a placement at 17-20c could possibly have been achieved in a few weeks as speculation builds in the lead up to canning drilling.

Also feel that a rights issue would have been more appropriate.

[rub92me]

A placement wouldn't surprise me, they will need more money for the Senegal project at some stage. Can't say I'm a big fan of these 'mates rates' deals, but that's the reality of the stockmarkets I guess, and the Australian stock market is weakly regulated to put it mildly so they can probably get away with it...

[rub92me]

A placement to 'sophisticated' investors it is: at 14 cents. I'm sophisticated. I'm an investor. So why didn't I get any :mad:

[kennas]

A placement to 'sophisticated' investors it is: at 14 cents. I'm sophisticated. I'm an investor. So why didn't I get any :mad:I can tell by your avatar and nic, rub me. LOL. :)

Raising the money at 14 looks ok considering the recent rapid gains. What was the average price while they were asking for the cash. Probably around 14 but it had come up from 10 pretty quickly.

I'm looking forward to the Canning Basin drilling potential in late July. Looks to be some upside for FAR there.

Looks like it's clearly broken up on the long term chart. Maybe .125 was the break, but breaking 15 looked pretty important, hopefully that's now support.

[kennas]

Oil and Gas Explorer with projects in Africa, Australia, China, and Nth America

Non operator with 18 years of production, exploration and deal flow in Nth America
414m shares on issue at 16 = $66m market cap
Cash 12.4m ish

Plans for 2007:

Prospect generation on world class Senegal project (FAR 30%)
Progress Offshore China discovery to development status Evaluate new 3D defines targets (FAR 5%)
Multi well program in Australia (3) Nth America (10) and China (4)
Lead player in ground floor 50 sq mile 3D program with multiple objectives onshore Gulf Coast (FAR 34%)
Lead player in ground floor 3D shoot at Wild River, Alberta, Canada (FAR 36%)

Canning Basin (Stokes Bay and Valentine – FAR 8% - operator ARQ)
Next drilling program is Onshore Canning Basin which will have a big increase in activity in 07. Drilling starts July
Stokes Bay estimated potential 33 BFC “A” Sand and 47 BFC “C” Sand and 11 mbo.
Valentine drill 1st week July estimated potential 200 mbo.

On the charts looks to be generally going up and has just recently broken through 15 ish and then tested it making it support. Litle bit of resistance at .175.

Research report from Strachan Corp indicates quite a bit upside from success at Canning Basin. (note: 'success')
Hartley's spec buy (Feb 07)
Stockresource buy up to 11 cents (Mar 07)
Fat Profits buy up to 9 cents (Aug 05)

Research reports here:
http://www.far.com.au/research/

Company web page
http://www.far.com.au/

(holding)

[doctorj]

New valuation out by Hartleys, valuing FAR at 32-64cps and Strachan has put an updated risked valuation of FAR out, putting on a "BUY" rating with an initial target of 25cps.

Will post here as soon as they become publically available.

[jtb]

I'll be happy to see 25c again gents - like watching grass grow since the beibu excitement last year. Would have sold then if I hadn't been bush. Took the axe to VPE after the Eagle disaster but couldn't bring myself to sell all of these:confused:.

Must say it can be an exercise in frustration though:(

Roll on Canning I say.

Onwards and upwards

[porkpie324]

I attended a Gold Coast seminar today where chairman Mike Evens gave a very good presentation, will definatly be watching these, BTW any other ASF members attending, porkpie

[doctorj]

Was the presentation the same as the AGM and Upstream Energy presentations (refer ASX announcements)?

Did you take any notes you are willing to share?

[porkpie324]

Doc, don't know about AGM was'nt there, all I know is that I was impressed by what I saw & heard. Hartleys have a spec buy on them, as I said will be researching some more and tracking share price. porkpie

[doctorj]

FYI the attached link is for the presentation that was used both at the AGM and Upstream Energy Conf. I'd be very interested to hear if the one you saw was the same.

http://www.far.com.au/files/asxannounce/Elodge%20ID458580%2023May07%20-%20Upstream%20Energy%202007.pdf

[porkpie324]

FYI the attached link is for the presentation that was used both at the AGM and Upstream Energy Conf. I'd be very interested to hear if the one you saw was the same

Looks exactly the same to me Doc, porkpie

[rub92me]

With EGO and now EMR going gangbusters on Canning Basin anticipation it is a bit puzzling that FAR has been sliding backwards. An opportunity perhaps??

[Pommiegranite]

With EGO and now EMR going gangbusters on Canning Basin anticipation it is a bit puzzling that FAR has been sliding backwards. An opportunity perhaps??

I did hold FAR, but just sold out to plough into EMR for greater leverage in CB. With Senegal a year away, I still plan on buying back into FAR, but don't need to rush.

Still a great company, with a nice cash postion.:2twocents

[doctorj]

http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=3273&MONTH_YEAR=Aug-2007


Offshore Senegal , Hunt Oil, First Australian Resources and Societe; Petroliere du Senegal (Petrosen) have discovered heavy oil on the Sangomar-Rufisque Block. Few details were given, but a Senegal Ministry of Energy spokesman said that the discovery may have 1 billion bbl of oil, although it was not clear if this represents an in-place or recoverable volume

Probably a case of poor journalism (poor research) given FAR haven't announced anything (even that they were drilling it), but a nice dream none the less.

The company and the author have been contacted for clarification.

[debono]

Hi Doc et-al

below is response I received. The attachment is a pdf and I am not sure how to attach here. Basically says that it is all good for Senegal and that they are expecting those sort of figures drilling late 2008 with production 2009.
All just optimism until we at least see some seismic results.

cheers

debono








Steve,

Attached is the source that I used for the section in my World Oil Exploration & Discoveries column in August on offshore Senegal. It appears that I misunderstood the announcement. There has been no discovery and no drilling yet on the Sangomar-Rufisque block. This was merely an optimistic statement by the Director General of Petrosen. You can view FAR's Website for an update on activities: www.far.com.au .

I will post a correction of this mis-information in my upcoming World Oil column.

Sorry for the confusion.

All the best,

Art

[doctorj]

The attachment is a pdf and I am not sure how to attach here.
Good to see you here debono.

When you click reply, beneath the text box where you type your message is another section of "additional options". Within that box, is a section entitled "manage attachments". From here it should all be pretty apparent.

You may need to enable pop-ups in your browser to make it work.

[doctorj]

Here are some thoughts (taken direct from my notepad) written down following today's announcement about Valentine.
- 'several metres' will refer to gross pay, as opposed to net. So the question is, will it flow?
- slow drilling indicates well concreted sandstones at the anderson/fairfield levels, so it may not flow real well
- however, if the 2 points above are true, then why stop drilling to evaluate? Why incur the added costs of intermediate logging? (is it possible this is just to provide more data for arq's surrounding tenements?)
- if there is gas, does it mean the seal on the virgin hills formation is likely bad causing gas to leak to anderson/fairfield?
- or does the continued slow drilling indicate the likelihood of a good seal on the virgin hills formation and these gases are additional (or even residual or the cause of the concreting)?
- either way, probably not an indicator of the potential of the virgin hills formation.

Discuss :)

[Trade wind]

Here are my thoughts on FAR. I posted this under CIG, so I might as well post here as well:

One to keep an eye on is FAR (First Australian Resources), a busy oil junior with JVs in North America and China (Beibu Gulf), now drilling in Canning Basin (ARC the major operator). Seeing some interest on the strength of WA operation, but this one promises much bigger fish with their offshore Senegal holding (30% with US operator Hunt Oil the main partner). I'm holding to see their 3D seismic results due this quarter, after company has flagged "promising" early results. Could be very interesting, though only drilling will really tell - might also be one for down the track.

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ... looking for a positive move, from 291202007
to 02112007, two significant and positive cycles
come into play ... :)

At the same time, it would not be surprising to
see a capital raising here, as a third, but
negative time cycle slots into position, as well.

happy days

paul

:)

=====

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR .... will be looking for some good news, around 12-14122007,
as 3 positive cycles come into focus ... an oil discovery ... ???

... and recently, a trading bot has building or unloading a
position in FAR, without moving the price too much ... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[coffee]

I think FAR will see a spike in the sp come january. BG is spud with SGT on it's way to oil...

Coffee

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I think FAR will see a spike in the sp come january. BG is spud with SGT on it's way to oil...

Coffee

I think your right Coffee,

FAR has 2 drilling programs under way

1) Beibu Gulf, Offshore China, follow up exploration program to last years success, success at any one of the 4 well program would add 4c to FAR's sp

Given the current rate of drilling (500m's a day) we should know if there's oil present within the next few days

2) South Gross Tete US, there are 2 components to this well, the shallow target which would add 2-5c to FAR's SP value depending on the level of Gas and Oil present and the deeper component which could add $1+ to FAR's value

This well has been drilling for sometime and should yield a result by the 10th of January according to my calculations


In addition to this, FAR has been assessing and analysing 3D Seismic for its Sengal projects and should very shortly been announcing drill targets/leads which are estimated to be 400M bls to 1Billion Barrel + Targets, such an announcement would no doubt warrant a re-rating of FAR

I expect the stock to continue trade up in anticipation of drill results from either of the 2 programs with the wild card being the Sengal announcem,ent detailing well target sizes etc etc


Thoughts?

p.s. I'll put all my thoughts into a YT style analysis soon

[YOUNG_TRADER]

FAR


Mkt Structure

Shares
485m


Mkt Cap @13c = $63m Current
Mkt Cap @17c = $83m Target 1 if 1 Beibu Guld well hits oil or if Shallow South Gross Tete hits hydrocarbons
Mkt Cap @30c = $145m Target 2 when Sengal 400M bbl + targets identified
Mkt Cap @$1 = $485m Target 3 if Deep South Gross Tete hits hydrocarbons


Cash $10m + $1.3m p.a. operating cash flow = Very well funded


Production
FAR is a well funded junior oil and gas explorer with many High Impact company making projects. It utilises about $1.6m p.a. of Net Revenues to help fund its extensive exploration program



Projects

United States Projects Oil and Gas, varying 5% - 15% interests, U.S.

FAR has many US based projects with some currently in production generating about $1.6m p.a. in net revenue which assits in paying for exploration costs etc

FAR has had recent success in the US and a few of its projects are being tied into production and this will increase the net revenue figure to around say $2m p.a.

However the main interest here is the current South Gross Tete well,

The shallow target if successful would add 2-5c to FAR's SP

However it is the deeper target that is of interest, if that is successful it would add another $1+ of value to FAR's SP

The well was estimated to take 52 days to reach Target Depth and spudded on the 23rd of November which gives a rough expectation of 14 January for a result here however interim oil shows can and should be expected along the way.



Beibu Gulf Oil and Gas, 5%, Offshore China

Last year the Beibu Gulf JV discovered Oil with an estimated recoverable resource of 20M bls - 40M bls of oil, steps have been taken to commence production from this new discovery

However of great interest is the fact that FAR is participating in a follow up exploration program of 4 wells.

Success at any one of the 4 wells should add 4c to FAR's value

The first well spudded on the 1st Jan and 24hrs later was already at 560m's of a total 2,425m depth, at this rate TD should be reached by Monday the 7th ie this monday

As these exploration wells are follow ups to the discovery and based on the same high quality 3D as that of the discovery Wildcat the probability of a success here is much higher than usual.



Australian Projects Oil and Gas, 10%, Australia

The company has a few Oil and Gas projects in Australia, with its main ones being that of the Canning Basin projects

Although Valentine failed to encounter any hydrocarbons, there is still hope that Stokes may be able to produce some small commercial quantities of oil and gas,

Follow up drilling is planned in the coming months



Canadian Projects Oil and Gas, 15% - 35%, Canada

FAR has completed extensive 3D seismic over some of its Canadian prospects and now intends to market/farm them out

Marketing was scheduled to begin in December with target/lead sizes etc etc



Senegal Oil and Gas, 30%, Offshore West Africa

FAR is partnered with Hunt Oil and main present an attractive take over target depending on the size and quality of the leads it identifies, it must be remembered that this is the acerage that took Hardman from $10m to over $1.5Billion when it was taken over by Tullow Oil,

I'm sure Tullow, Hunt, Petrobras and Petronas are all watching and waiting to see what the High quality 3D seismic uncovers

The results of the survey are somewhat overdue (as with most resource projects) however I believe this holds the wild card for a rather large re-rating, as expectations are that FAR has many 400M bl + to 1Billion Barrel + targets within its acerage


Summary
- Production from the US currently running at $1.6m p.a. and set to rise
- Production from China will come online late 2008
- Many high impact wells US = up to $1 value/China = up to 15c value /Canada ? /Aust ?
- Sengal targets should cause a rerating
- Chart wise looks to have bottomed


Thoughts?

[doctorj]

YT, I'll post my critique shortly - I'm beginning to think you're following me around.

Care to share how you've come up with your valuations?

[pan]

thanks for the report. YT
have you brought in yet?
how come you have got MHL on the top?
thanks
pan

[YOUNG_TRADER]

lol, hey Pan I use the formatting from previous posts, ie colour bold etc, well Prawn solved that

Hey Doc, all my valuations are based on the research reports of Peter Strachan of Stock Anaylsis and Hartleys,

There is some discrepancy between the 2 but that is becuase of the reports having the interest FAR has wrong,

See the following reports on the FAR web page

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys%20Research%20FAR-20070226.pdf

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/StockAnalysis%20Issue%2033%20Vol%202%20December%20 14th%202005%20FAR.pdf

The important thing to remember is that these reports are outdated and oil is no longer $50 a barrel or $75 but $100 a bl, thats right $100, as such the EV valuations and profitability assumed by Strchan and Hartleys is too low,

I have access to Stock Analysis and Peter has done many updates on FAR, however as these aren't on the web page I don't want to reproduce them as people have gotten in trouble in he past for abuse of copyright etc

So I'm clear every report I provide links to or any pics attached are available on FAR's web page here

http://www.far.com.au/research/

There is also a bunch of interesting articles to read comparing FAR to Hardman early days etc


p.s. Doc great minds......... ;)

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Following on with what I was saying I just checked and Hartleys have on their private client web page an updated research report of FAR as at the 8th June 2007 which puts a speculative buy with a target of 32c-64c

For whatever reason the company has not put this on their web page and as such I don't want to republish it (to avoid any issues etc)

Maybe someone should call the company up and ask them to put it up there?

I notice Warick Grigor of Far East Capital is a director of FAR, I wonder if he's done any research on them as well but for whatever reason it wasn't put on the company's web page

[mick2006]

nice piece of research there YT, there are few if any junior oil companies with the potential upside of FAR, short term you have the drilling results out of China/US which given the current oil environment will move the shareprice on any good news, but in the medium to longer term it is the Senegal leases that will be the driver.

The leases in Senegal are in oil elephant territory and as I will highlight below the value of FAR's 30% interest would already be worth around $300 million even before a drill rig touches the surface, below is a part of a recent hartley's report outlining the massive dollars international oil companies are paying for oil exploration leases in West Africa.

Unprecedented Interest in West Africa

With the major oil companies searching the globe for areas with potential for huge oil fields, under explored West Africa has captured their attention. West Africa continues to be viewed by the industry as one of the few regions outside the Middle East capable of hosting big enough hydrocarbon reservoirs to attract the major oil companies. As illustrated in Figure 1, there are a number of majors that surround FAR’s acreage including Woodside Petroleum Limited, Dana Petroleum Plc, Tullow Plc and Edison International. FAR is the only junior ASX listed company along the Mauritania-Senegal-Guinea Bissau offshore trend.

Recent activity in West Africa by some of the majors include:

• Edison completed a 1,500km2 3D seismic survey in the Rufisque Deep Offshore block to the north.
• Kuwait Foreign Exploration Co recently purchased BG Group PLC’s interests in Mauritania for $128 million.
• A recent auction of acreage in the Congo Basin, offshore Angola, for three deepwater exploration tracts saw international oil companies bid in excess of US$3.1b in signature bonuses alone. This amount is reportedly the highest ever offered for exploration anywhere in the world.
• Gaz de France has recently agreed to study the feasibility of an LNG project based on deepwater gas discoveries in nearby Mauritania.


Also of interest is the article by Resource Stocks Magazine comparing FAR progress to that of HDR at the same stage (link below, see page 2 its mind boggling how much upside FAR has due to the Senegal Leases)

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Resourcestocks%20FAR%2021%20Mar%2007.pdf


But what is almost unbelieveable is the valuations of what an actual oil discovery in Senegal would mean for FAR's share price (what YT has included in his research is the value of FAR's Senegal leases when the seismic survey results are released not if they actually discover oil)


Below are some figures from the Huntley's Research outlining the possibilities of a Senegal Oil discovery, and these are only two of the known targets.

(C1Prospect) 180-320mmbo $2.66-$4.73 per share
(N3Prospect) 120-418mmbo $2.12-$7.37 per share


The fact that oil has now hit the $100 a barrel mark, will mean any positive exploration news will send FAR flying, with results due from the first of four wells in China next week, and the results also due shortly from the high impact South Grosse Tete in the US along with the Seismic Survey results out of Senegal it will be a great time to be holding FAR.

Another interesting point is FAR is one of Fat Prophets long term oil holdings and don't be surprised once the Seismic Survey results are released from Senegal that they will re-cover the stock with a higher price target meaning more likely buyers from people that subscribe to the newsletter.

[doctorj]

Here are some poorly organised thoughts on some of the points you made.

Senegal
For me, Senegal is the great 'hope' but I can't help suspecting about 1bbo of targets are already factored into the SP. These have already been identified by old 2d seismic. 3d seismic will help sure up drill targets - the potential upside is the chance of finding new targets. I doubt we'll see the drill bit test any of these targets for until late this year at the earliest and to do say FAR will have to either farm down to be free or near free carried or self-fund their share for a single drill and hope.

Which brings me to capital raisings. Notwithstanding Senegal which is likely to cost >$10m per drill, $1.3m/yr and $10m in the bank is not enough to self fund a reasonably active oil & gas junior looking for meaningful stakes if drills. Most of their production is from mature fields and likely to decline significantly.

I spoke to the company recently and they expect to finish processing the 3d seismic and target generation during q1.

Beibu
Beibu is excellent and the 3 or 4 well drilling program has the potential to unlock a lot of value for participants. All drilling in this program should be completed this quarter and each well should be quite quick to drill. As you say, they've been drilling and interpretting Beibu for years and the operator knows the geology quite well. Accordingly the chance of success is relatively high.

It should be noted that CNOOC has the option to farm in to the Beibu for 50%, giving FAR a potential 2.5% stake.

USA
Lake Long has been fantastic for FAR, but its worth keeping an eye on the old dog that is the Eagle Prospect. Also, FAR has a 34% stake in a large project called NE Waller. It's in a lightly explored area on trend with significant Eocene production and with target structures identified by 2d seismic in the 80's. 50km2 of seismic has been shot and they're currently procesing.

The data you've used to calculate the value of the SGT shallows is out of date - FAR farmed down to a 5% interest (from memory) above 14,500ft. They've retained their interest in the larger deep target should the operator lodge a proposal to drill on.

Australia
I think Stokes Bay found something important for the whole Canning Basin and Arc, but I doubt its going to be a producer. I suspect the mud has damaged the formation and we're unlikely to see the rest of the drilling mud and hydrocarbons when they go back to have a look at the end of the wet. Perhaps a sidetrack and a better prepared mud engineer is in store in a few months?

Duomonte and Little Joe are very interesting as well and its worth keeping an eye on Apache to see if they slip it in their drilling program after the wet.

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ... disregarding the fundamentals, the attached file contains some
detailed, but simple Gann astroanalysis and an updated FAR chart ... :)

happy days

paul

:)

=====

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Doc,

Yeah I know about South Gross Shallow that its down to 5% but Peter Strachan still recently valued the shallow target at 2c-5c from memory


But the Deep target interest is still just under 18% so that the $1 value given by Strachan back then is ok, if anything its way undervalued given that oil back in late 05 was probably $60 US vs $100 US now


I really doubt Senegal is factored into the price, Strachan recently commented that FAR's hard asset and cash value is 9c and any success at Beibu will take that to 13c at which point all of FAR's exploration assets incluusing Senegal are free

So all we need is success at Beibu on monday/tuesday next week
and at current levels we get a free option on Senegal, Australia and Canada

[mick2006]

with Huntley's and Fat Prophets aboard FAR, all we are waiting for now is some positive seismic results out of Senegal for the re-rating to kick into full gear this will start up a whole heap of new research reports and recommendations.

Below is an article written about the similarities between HDR and FAR, remember between when HDR announced their seismic results in Mauritania and when they started drilling there, their shareprice mulitplied by 10, this is the stage FAR is just heading into to.

http://www.far.com.au/files/research...20Mar%2007.pdf

[kpas]

This is on the verge of breaking out just from looking at how heavily weighted the spread is.

BUY SELL
Number Quantity Price
4 154,000 0.145
4 1,353,582 0.140
7 1,787,222 0.135
9 1,295,080 0.130
6 2,180,000 0.125
12 2,181,685 0.120
10 2,626,800 0.115
9 2,079,660 0.110
2 250,000 0.105
1 200,000 0.100
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Price Quantity Number
0.150 346,736 5
0.155 799,480 8
0.160 769,453 2
0.170 345,000 3
0.175 148,600 1
0.180 18,008 1
0.200 36,000 2
0.250 40,000 1

[Pat]

YT you must have access to some pretty interesting information.
The day after you post your research the volume goes off. Or maybe it it was just you buying and soaking up sellers? :confused:

I saw your research last night, had a look myself this morning and saw some potential.



Perhaps an up trend to come as previous volume spikes where followed buy up trends. Maybe there good at leaking the news? It was good to watch as the sp broke 15 cents then stuggled to hold there.

A good chunk of the buy side was taken just before close, almost 2.5 million shares traded within 5 mins. Directors jumping ship? hahaha

Thanks for your research guys, one to watch for monday morning. :)

[Gekko]

What no mention of Japanese Whaling Pat. I read the government has delayed sending off the whaling vessel. :confused::rolleyes::sly: This company looks intersting. Pity ive been away for a few days. When are results expected?:confused:

[YOUNG_TRADER]

YT you must have access to some pretty interesting information.
The day after you post your research the volume goes off. Or maybe it it was just you buying and soaking up sellers? :confused:


lol, I think it has more to do with the spudding of the Beibu Gulf well, this is the first of 4 wells which will be drilled back to back and given the fact that the wells are a step out/follow up to the discovery made last year increase the probability of a discovery, I'd say at least to a 1 in 4 chance, which given the fact that 4 wells are to be drilled back to back would arguably suggest at least one discovery should be made.

As I worked out before, we can expcet a result for the first well by Monday/Tuesday if everything went to plan

However of even more importance is FAR's US drilling currently underway, should the deep target come in it holds $1+ of value to FAR!

And finally there is the overdue seismic interpretation for Sengal which once released will outline well/target sizes, I expect a re-rating on the back of this.

[adobee]

I have only had a quick look at this after noticing others posts but it really had volume on Friday compared to the past few months.. and is getting chased up this morning when the market is red.. someone must be expecting positive results aside from YTrader..

Young trader are you subscribed to any newsletters that alert you to these little gems or you just troll through every stock which isnt yet run hard ????

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I have only had a quick look at this after noticing others posts but it really had volume on Friday compared to the past few months.. and is getting chased up this morning when the market is red.. someone must be expecting positive results aside from YTrader..

Young trader are you subscribed to any newsletters that alert you to these little gems or you just troll through every stock which isnt yet run hard ????

Hey adobee,

I try and keep an eye on as many things as I can, but I can only do this by having access to as many research and analytical reports as possible,

It was Peter Strachans Stock Analysis that kept me updated about FAR over the last few weeks

I am impressed with how FAR has traded today so far, it seems I am not the only one waiting for these Chinese and US wells ;)

[doctorj]

FAR is up, but AMU, HZN and ROC are flat or down...

If it's out that SGT is looking the goods, I'd expect AMU to be trading a lot stronger than it is...

[evwatkins]

i just put an order in for 66,000 @ 0.155 im second in line so should fill soon, i didnt want to miss the boat sitting behing the 900,000+ sitting at 0.15

anyway see how things go

[pan]

i just put an order in for 66,000 @ 0.155 im second in line so should fill soon, i didnt want to miss the boat sitting behing the 900,000+ sitting at 0.15

anyway see how things go

Well it went through. Where do we see this share closing today? hopefully above 15cents at least... hopefully the dow is up tonight.

[JTLP]

Whats the chances of getting an announcement today?
I'm hoping FAR to finish around .15 to .155. It has touched .16 quite a few times and would be nice to finish there, but if it closes at .155 we should see a nice gap up tomorrow with the pending results (if they dont come out today).

In conclusion, results out today or no? :cool:

[fodder-oz]

yeh lets hope this one gets some good news. I also got some at 15.5c wishing i got in a few hours early when it was at 14c a few days ago when i bought. Looks very promising, lets hope :-)

[rub92me]

This run up looks very similar to the last one, which was a prelude to a "mates rates" deal to raise some more money. Still holding some of this for long term glory, but not holding my breath just yet. The lofty targets that have been bandied about are still a couple of years away imho, if they ever get there...

[YOUNG_TRADER]

This run up looks very similar to the last one, which was a prelude to a "mates rates" deal to raise some more money.


Hi rub,

Can you please fill me in n what happened last time?

Did they wait until a well was being drilled and then do a placement to "mates" ?

They have $10m in the bank, I would be very surprised and dissapointed if they do a placement now, I really would.

From your post you've obviously been following the story longer than I so I am interested to hear your experience's with it so FAR (pardon the pun ;) )

[Pat]

Not sure if the ann re china drilling is what the market is so excited about, I'm under the impression FAR only holds 5% interest in these. These tests are said to be completed late 07 to early 08 but this doesn't mean they're ready to be released.
I'm hoping the results from Senegal have been leaked as this is the big one IMO. These tenements are definitely FAR's wild card!!!
FAR will be a definite target for a major if these results are positive. From what I've read, they are surrounded by majors in Senegal... Woodside, Tullow... Good long term punt IMO.

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,
FAR ... if we marry our regular TA with some astroanalysis, then we can
see, that there should be enough positive cycles to keep FAR in an uptrend:

10012008 ... minor cycle

15-16012008 ... significant and positive cycle ... finance-related ???

22012008 ... positive news expected here.

05022008 ... more news expected ... start of a new upleg???

08-11022008 ... 2 positive cycles to lift FAR, again.

04-07032008 ... 2 aspects to bring positive news and a .22 high, here ???

10032008 ... negative spotlight on FAR

1403-02042008 ... 2 opposing and underlying cycle here for FAR, may make
for some volatile trading, especially, around:

28032008 ... 3 significant and negative cycles are triggered by a lunar
aspect, while another positive cycle is also in play. So,
expect some significant events here for FAR. Looking for a low ?


... and then, April should be stronger for FAR:

Our mechanical target date, calculated from the price move above (in days),
gave us 03042008, as a target in early April.

Soon after that target, our astroanalysis has uncovered several positive
cycles to lift FAR off its lows or breakout from resistance, at that time:

08-09042008 ... positive spotlight on FAR

11-14042008 ... significant and positive news expected here

18-21042008 ... difficult cycle in play here ... negative ... pullback???

21-22042008 ... significant and positive cycle ... finance-related???

25-28042008 ... difficult cycle here, but more news expected.

Next round of positive cycles for FAR, should get started, around 28072008.


More later .....

happy trading

paul


:)

=====

[rub92me]

Hi rub,

Can you please fill me in n what happened last time?

Did they wait until a well was being drilled and then do a placement to "mates" ?

They have $10m in the bank, I would be very surprised and dissapointed if they do a placement now, I really would.

From your post you've obviously been following the story longer than I so I am interested to hear your experience's with it so FAR (pardon the pun ;) )
With Canning Basin on hold for the rainy season, there won't be any revenue coming out of that for a while. Senegal will need more money and they probably don't want to dilute their holding there just yet (although I think it is likely that they will need to in the future). Previous raisings have typically come on rumour/possibilities of drilling success. If you can get insight in who are the large traders in FAR at the moment, that would be telling. If Evolution Capital Management is involved, it could be another raising. Time will tell I suppose. I've decided to hang in there for another year or so to see what transpires. ;)

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well still no news re the Chinese well,

Based on their prior progress I would expect something by tomorrow re the well

However given JMS's performance today on a good ann it makes me think that only penny dreadful stocks ie FDL, BMO, RCH, GDA, ORO, RSL, GNL will run in this market which really makes no sense at all :confused:

[pan]

:)

Hi folks,
FAR ... if we marry our regular TA with some astroanalysis, then we can
see, that there should be enough positive cycles to keep FAR in an uptrend:

10012008 ... minor cycle

15-16012008 ... significant and positive cycle ... finance-related ???

22012008 ... positive news expected here.

05022008 ... more news expected ... start of a new upleg???

08-11022008 ... 2 positive cycles to lift FAR, again.

04-07032008 ... 2 aspects to bring positive news and a .22 high, here ???

10032008 ... negative spotlight on FAR

1403-02042008 ... 2 opposing and underlying cycle here for FAR, may make
for some volatile trading, especially, around:


Hey paul may I ask how you come about all these predictions? and what is your success rate like?

[wildmanchris]

I think Paul's following Astronomy - a few people that deal with my work do it. Very hard core stuff if you dont know it, but they have some success with it. I might be wrong though........

[doctorj]

Paul's discussed the way he does analysis extensively in the past - it's worth doing some searching (though I can't remember if it was here or at an old forum - try looking for yogi-in-oz).

If you don't have any luck, feel free to start a new thread on Paul's astroanalysis - I'm sure many people have the same questions you do.

In the mean time, lets keep this thread about FAR as much as possible.

Drilling announcements tend to surface about once a week, so I wouldn't be surprised if the market gets updated tomorrow.

[JTLP]

FAR have been updated, but when will actual results be known?
When I saw the news ann I was hoping for a 3 in one (US, China + Senegal) :p:

[YOUNG_TRADER]

1) Beibu Gulf, Offshore China, follow up exploration program to last years success, success at any one of the 4 well program would add 4c to FAR's sp

Given the current rate of drilling (500m's a day) we should know if there's oil present within the next few days

I am really confused with the progress being made at Beibu,

Over the first 24hrs they progressed 500m's, yet over the last few days only a further 300m's was drilled,

Confused?????????? :confused: :confused: :confused:

[bigt]

Current operations are BOP testing - I thought BOPs were only used on producing wells? (note, I'm no expert on oil drilling).

[jtb]

Current operations are BOP testing - I thought BOPs were only used on producing wells? (note, I'm no expert on oil drilling).

Hey big,

Got to test the integrity of your blow off protector before proceeding or she may fail when required.

;)

[doctorj]

A new article is available on the FAR website.

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Petroleum%20magazine%20gulf%20coast%20article_Nov% 2007.pdf

[stu_lee44]

Hi guys,did you see the 2m sell order@14c this morning? Is there any substantial holder who are selling?Hope it's bited soon.

[fodder-oz]

Hope this one goes back up a bit soon. I'm wishing I bought at 14c rather then 15 a week ago.

Any further news on drilling expected soon? I guess the last report wasn't all that positive but I guess this is more a longer term hold then short term, I'm thinking..

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi guys,did you see the 2m sell order@14c this morning? Is there any substantial holder who are selling?Hope it's bited soon.

Hmm I didn't see that, but I have seen a few big sells, it could be traders getting out, or it could be a major holder selling, with the only explanation being what Rub suggested, a placement to mates at a samll discount, say 13c, I really hope not as the company does not need cash at the moment.


This run up looks very similar to the last one, which was a prelude to a "mates rates" deal to raise some more money.

Doc you've watched this longer than I have, what do you make of the big sells?

[doctorj]

Doc you've watched this longer than I have, what do you make of the big sells?
Historically, FAR has promised a lot (Eagle, Welder, SGT, Eagle, Kicker, CB and now SGT again) and to date it has consistently fallen short of those promises. As a result, I think there are a lot of stale bulls looking for a leg out at a reasonable price (I personally know know of a few). I might fall into that bucket too - despite having very interesting prospects the opportunity cost of my holding continues to mount. I'm well in the green, but I don't think the return I've received to date has been commensurate to the risk relative to the market.

The alternative is that it's being played by Evolution, but I've got my tin foil hat on at the moment, so I can't hear the voices right now ;)

[jtb]

Historically, FAR has promised a lot (Eagle, Welder, SGT, Eagle, Kicker, CB and now SGT again) and to date it has consistently fallen short of those promises. As a result, I think there are a lot of stale bulls looking for a leg out at a reasonable price (I personally know know of a few). I might fall into that bucket too - despite having very interesting prospects the opportunity cost of my holding continues to mount. I'm well in the green, but I don't think the return I've received to date has been commensurate to the risk relative to the market.



Amen Doc,

I bit the bullet and bailed in June.
Considering that in early 2006 I was buying CVN @ 3c and FAR @ 11-12c (and held through the BG spike because thats the kind of guy I am:o) after 18 months 16.5c was nothing to get too excited about.
I don't like their business plan (is it a plan or is it just lack of ability) and started to get the vibe that I may be stuck with another VPE:mad:
Just glad I bailed pre-consolidation @ 26c (equivalent) on VPE (after buying @40c).

Eagle..............:banghead:

The emerging wave of nationalisation we are seeing in oil resources combined with the let down in Mauritania was enough to keep me wary of Senegal.

[kiwi]

I was a holder of Hardman from 1996 through to 2001. The FAR story is very similar except FAR has had more minor success than Hardman ever had prior to the start of Mauritainia drilling. With Hardman the movement in share price was on the anticipation of drilling at Mauriatinia only. With FAR the movement in Share price appears to be on minor discoveries (Beibu) so far. I am not convinced that the market has built in any anticipation of Senegal yet. That may come when the 3D results are published and we may see some significant and sustained price movements unless current drilling produces positive results. I would think that that would be the best time for any capital raising (I seem to recall a rights issue of 1 for 3 at 30 cents in 2000 at Hardman prior to drilling in 2001.)

"When Kiwis emigrate to Australia the IQ of both nations increases" Rob Muldoon
:D

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,

Still no updates from FAR re Senegal and the Chinese program is going alot slower than I thought but at least we know we can can expect news soon from FAR as it has some much happening

From my previous calculations I was expecting an update at the SGT gas well by the 10th which was Thursday, like the Chinese program it may be running a few days behind schedule,

The deep target does offer alot of upside ( $1 approx )

Waiting patiently



South Gross Tete US, there are 2 components to this well, the shallow target which would add 2-5c to FAR's SP value depending on the level of Gas and Oil present and the deeper component which could add $1+ to FAR's value

This well has been drilling for sometime and should yield a result by the 10th of January according to my calculations

[doctorj]

I don't think the Chinese program is behind schedule - I'd expect something from there in a couple of days.

As for Senegal, Colin said some time Q1 this year.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well I just had a good phone call from the broker,

It turns out that some results were recieved for the SGT well but haven't been anounced by FAR yet,

They were announced by FAR's JV partner AMU (see the ann at 10am or something)

Apparantly there have been gas shows while drilling at around the 12,000 foot deep level,

While this is still preliminary what it does do in my opinion is upgrade the prospectivity of the deeper (more important to FAR) target as this holds a potential $1+ value to FAR

The shallow target only holds a few cents of value to both FAR and AMU and thus didn't have much of an impact on AMU, however as I said it makes the deeper target look alot more plausible which will be company maker for FAR,

I'm unsure why FAR has not released the results yet :confused: , I'm going to try and call them

Below is an extract from AMU's ann today, note the South Gross Tete target (SGT) is being targeted by the Schwing well

[doctorj]

For those keeping track of projects other than Senegal, China and SGT, this came out today from Emerald on Stokes Bay.



A recent JV meeting discussed the areal extent of the structure intersected by the Stokes Bay 1 well which could still have significant gas and condensate resources. Pressure gradient studies indicate that the Nullara reefal carbonates could be hydrocarbonbearing. So far no actual indigenous formations fluid has been recovered, only drilling fluids which invaded the formation while drilling.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Doc,

I thought Stokes Bay was done and dusted, but it appears I may have been too hasty,

So at the present FAR is working on the following fronts

1. Beibu Gulf China: 3-4 Exploration Wildcats to follow up on discovery field mafe last year, well 1 under way, potential 4c value per well to FAR

2. SGT/Schwing: A shallow + deep gas target, so far AMU has reported early signs of Gas at the shallow parts which bodes well for the deeper target which holds potential $1+ value to FAR

3. Sengal: 3D Siesmic reinterpreation results, target sizes estimated at 400M bls - 1Billion Barrels, results are overdue, re-rated should occur on the back of the results

4. Canada: Farm out activities for the Canadian prospects

5. Aust: Follow up Canning Basin work, ie Stokes Bay testing

Anything else I have missed?

I like companies that have many potential pay off events underway :)

[doctorj]

I suspect the value of Nullara is mostly to ARQ with their large holding in the Northern Canning. I suspect the formation will need to be re-drilled which isn't likely to happen for sometime.

The dark horse is that it may start flowing formation fluids when testing continues. Who knows what goes on at that depth when I damaged formation is shut in for so long.

You're missing the seismic shoot at NE Waller. The seismic has been shot and results are likely to be out prior to a North American Petroleum Expo (I forget the name - I've not had a coffee yet this morning) in early February which they'll probably use to farm out prospects.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Doc,

I dug up some info the NE Waller prospect lloks like its another GAS play, but being in the US with record Gas prices, I guess that's a good thing




Primary objectives are multiple normally pressured prolific Eocene sands in structural traps. The area to be evaluated with 3D seismic is on depositional strike with several nearby fields which have produced over a quarter trillion cubic feet of gas and over thirty million barrels of liquids. Although targeting natural gas, most of the sands in this trend are condensate rich.Additional objectives comprise highly productive Miocene, Oligocene and Upper Eocene sands. These sands have produced primarily from stratigraphic traps. A field on trend has produced almost 30 million barrels of liquids and 20 billion cubic feet of gas from this section. These shallow sands are especially prone to displaying 3D amplitude anomalies.
Deeper potential is also present in a number of high risk – high potential objectives which lie beneath the Eocene section.
The Operator has reported nearby activity where Newfield is drilling a 16,500 foot test approximately 4.5 miles from the survey’s boundary.

The purpose of the 3D program will be to locate optimal drill sites from which the sizeable hydrocarbon potential of the play area may be tested. Potential reserves in excess of 50 BCFE from future exploration drilling, from the primary objectives alone, are anticipated.

[doctorj]

The advantage of these kinds of prospects is that the Geology tends to be well understood (as opposed to say the highly fractured Canning Basin), discoveries are very quick to bring online and they're nice and close to existing infrastructure meaning smaller finds are economic.

[stu_lee44]

A little bit faster than last week.It should be finished at the end of Jan.

DRIILLIING UPDATE: WEII-6-12W-1 EXPLORATIION WELL,, BLOCK 22//12,,
OFFSHORE CHIINA
Roc Oil (China) Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of ROC, advises as at 0600 hours
(local time) on 16 January 2008, the Premium "Murmanskaya" jack up drilling rig is
currently drilling a 12-1/4" hole section at a depth of 1,684 mBRT.
The forward plan is to drill ahead to 1,860 mBRT to set 9-5/8" casin

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well we got updates on

Beibu Gulf China: Everything seems to be progressing but at a slow and steady pace


We also finally got the AMU related SGT update, which as I said mentions gas shows in the upper section which I would think upgrades the prospectivity of the lower target which is the one that matters to FAR

However given the blood bath today, its no wonder that the market doesn't care

[scottle]

We also finally got the AMU related SGT update, which as I said mentions gas shows in the upper section which I would think upgrades the prospectivity of the lower target which is the one that matters to FAR


From the ann: "The above revision to the Schwing #2 well (in which FAR has a 5% working interest between surface and 14,500 feet) means the current wellbore will not be used at a future date to test the deeper Wilcox formation"

I read this as saying they wont be drilling the potential $1ps in this well (greater than 14500ft) So upside is now 4cps max for this well

S

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Oh snap,

I didn't see that,

Thats a bit dissapointing that we'll have to wait for the testing of the deeper Wilcox formation,

But like I said, the early gas shows in the shallow section upgrade the prospectivity of the deeper section

[jdhd]

That was my understanding as well Young-Trader. I would love to see them go beyond 14500 but it is not on the cards. I have been holding for 18mths now. Topped up the other day at 12.5c......can see a real company maker in Senegal. In the mean time, should be news from China next week and 2 or 3 other 3D seismics due before February. Should see some price movement soon even if the US is severly impacting the market. Notice that FAR hasn't dropped down to the level it did when the sub-prime news was first released to the public in August 07. Pretty safe around 12c I believe, for the time being anyway. Bring on the news........... jd

[doctorj]

In the oil game, there's always going to bigger, riskier targets deeper. A commercial find in the shallow section isn't a bad outcome at all if it has a reasonable payback period. One in the hand vs two in the bush and all that... I'm not reading it as a disappointment at all.

[Awesomandy]

In the oil game, there's always going to bigger, riskier targets deeper. A commercial find in the shallow section isn't a bad outcome at all if it has a reasonable payback period. One in the hand vs two in the bush and all that... I'm not reading it as a disappointment at all.

It sounds to me that they've got enough going in the short-medium term at least, and despite what has been happening in the general market, FAR has hardly moved, staying at around the 12.5c, 13c mark. I think the current annoucement means that it will take a little longer before there are going to be any siginficant upwards movements of the sp, but given that they have quite a few projects running at the moment, I think there's a high chance of very good gains for the patient shareholders.

Having said that though, I'm not buying into this stock - I'm not sure if I'm allowed to do so. :(

[Georgeb]

Does anyone know when we are expecting news from senegal as
I see this as the company maker.

I would appreciate any comments on this company...

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Does anyone know when we are expecting news from senegal as
I see this as the company maker.

I would appreciate any comments on this company...

Hi George,

All I know is that the Sengal reprocessing/target sizing results were due about 2-3months ago, so as with most overdue resource company announcements my best guess would be anytime now, I know this isn't much help but the results are overdue.

Maybe try and give the company a call, their number is listed on the company web page and is also on asx ann's

Cheers

p.s. Keep an eye out for the Beibu Gulf program results ;)

[doctorj]

Last I spoke to CH it was Q1 08, but essentially it's ready when it's ready. Give it a month or two, but unless it comes with a rig and/or a drilling program I don't expect it to do a lot for FAR on the upside for a while yet.

Results of the first well in the latest Beibu program, SGT shallows and NE Waller seismic (and possibly a drill date and farm in) will be out in the next 20 trading days.

Slightly longer are more detail on Canning Basin and ofcourse Senegal. Keep an eye on Apache after the wet for Little Joe/Duomonte.

[jdhd]

Hi Georgeb & others,

News on Senegal was due by end of December 07. Keep in mind however, that FAR is in partnership with Hunt Oil (a private company) and they don't have share holders to keep happy. FAR is waiting for the news from Hunt. Shouldn't be too far off.

This is a brief precis of a very recent recommendation from Stock Resources: (1 or 2 weeks ago)

"FAR is entering an exciting period when it will reveal interpreted targets from a number of seismic surveys including offshore Senegal. Meanwhile a new drilling programme in the Beibu Gulf has a high potential for further discoveries in this region."

Also close to receiving results of 3D surveys at Wild River (Alberta) and NE Waller (Gulf of Mexico) and will look to promote prospects emerging from these surveys at NAPE in February 2008. North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) is on in Houston Texas on 7 & 8 February 2008.

They expect farmout by Hunt Oil & FAR to drill Senegal & if like Hardman will receive 10 fold increase in SP.

Stock Resource expect results of these announcements to stimulate market interest.

Wireline logging results expected from Schwing #2 Well, South Grosse Tete, Iberville Parish, South Louisiana next week.

Beibu Gulf entire drilling programme is expected to be completed by the end of 1Q 2008 and will attract a strong market interest in the participating companies over this time period.

Extremely positive recommendation to buy from Stock Resource.

Good times for FAR ahead!!!!!!!!!

jd

[JJKools]

Thanks for the post...I need to read something positive today!!!

Still happy holding FAR. Yep hopefully news is what we are all hoping it to be.

[Trader Paul]

Posted 08 January 2008:

Hi folks,
FAR ... if we marry our regular TA with some astroanalysis, then we can
see, that there should be enough positive cycles to keep FAR in an uptrend:

10012008 ... minor cycle

15-16012008 ... significant and positive cycle ... finance-related ???

22012008 ... positive news expected here.

05022008 ... more news expected ... start of a new upleg???

08-11022008 ... 2 positive cycles to lift FAR, again.

04-07032008 ... 2 aspects to bring positive news and a .22 high, here ???

10032008 ... negative spotlight on FAR

1403-02042008 ... 2 opposing and underlying cycle here for FAR, may make
for some volatile trading, especially, around:

28032008 ... 3 significant and negative cycles are triggered by a lunar
aspect, while another positive cycle is also in play. So,
expect some significant events here for FAR. Looking for a low ?


... and then, April should be stronger for FAR:

Our mechanical target date, calculated from the price move above (in days),
gave us 03042008, as a target in early April.

Soon after that target, our astroanalysis has uncovered several positive
cycles to lift FAR off its lows or breakout from resistance, at that time:

08-09042008 ... positive spotlight on FAR

11-14042008 ... significant and positive news expected here

18-21042008 ... difficult cycle in play here ... negative ... pullback???

21-22042008 ... significant and positive cycle ... finance-related???

25-28042008 ... difficult cycle here, but more news expected.

Next round of positive cycles for FAR, should get started, around 28072008.

More later .....

happy trading

paul


=====

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ... "22012008 ... positive news expected here" .....

..... news comes in, right on time ... as forecast above, on 08012008 ... :)

So, from our time cycle analysis, we expect to be in a positive period for
FAR, until the 3rd week in March 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

=====

Part of today's announcement, after the closing bell:

Commenting on the announcement, FAR’s executive Chairman Michael Evans said:
“Completion of 3D processing at NE Waller is another step forward in FAR’s transition to
prospect generator in the gulf coast. We are pleased to have multiple targets to add to our
2008 drilling inventory and display to industry partners. Eagerly awaited results for our
other initiatives in 2007, including Senegal and Wild River, are expected to follow shortly in
what promises to be a watershed year for FAR.”

For information on FAR’s drilling activities visit our website at www.far.com.au

[doctorj]

Good announcement out today - 50bcf prospect coming out of the Wild River seismic.

Also, so the far website for http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys%20research_Jan08.pdf (http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys%20research_Jan08.pdf) new research put out by Hartleys. They believe the Senegal seismic will be out in advance of NAPE.

Hartleys have valued FAR on a risked basis between 22-42cps with an unrisked valuation of 298cps.

Interestingly, Wild River was valued on a risked basis at 1.4 - 1.9cps based on 10.2bcf recoverable. The identified prospect is 50bcf.

[stu_lee44]

24 Jan 2008 18:19 Change of Director`s Interest Notice
Warwick Robert Grigor,one of the directors,sold 1m@11c
on Jan 22.Dissapointed!

[rub92me]

24 Jan 2008 18:19 Change of Director`s Interest Notice
Warwick Robert Grigor,one of the directors,sold 1m@11c
on Jan 22.Dissapointed!
Could be a forced sale due to a margin call; even company directors can't escape those. It's not like he sold out at the top.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey rub,

Yeah agree, very strange that he sold at or near the lows,

Whatever the reason it doesn't inspire confidence :sly:

[doctorj]

I'd be very happy to be proven wrong, but my impression is that Grigor has always been a bit of a tag-along. I'm sure he's very good at what ever it is he does, but I have my doubt that he does much for FAR.

Given he sold on a market driven low despite a lot of recent news flow, I'm guessing he was funding a margin call or something like that.

In short, I wouldn't worry - Grigor doesn't mean much to FAR. Most of the shareholder-value stuff is a product of Evans and Cavness.

[happytown]

far ann out, update on senegal, grigor isn't exactly your run of the mill director but i note he still has approx 9-10 mil more shares

cheers :)

[doctorj]

Hopefully FAR release their NAPE materials for us to look at. The announcement looks promising but is very light on information. Disappointing they haven't yet got an estimate of the reserve potential or a timeframe for it - no idea what 'fast track' means.

I'll have to sit down and examine it further before I pass judgement though.

[jdhd]

Someone over on HC contacted Hartleys and they are of the understanding that the reserve estimates will be done prior to NAPE. May be correct - may not be. In any case there will certainly be some interesting news coming out of NAPE.

Part of the Senegal Summary - "Excellent fiscal terms by world standards" - sounds good to me.

jd

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hopefully FAR release their NAPE materials for us to look at. The announcement looks promising but is very light on information. Disappointing they haven't yet got an estimate of the reserve potential or a timeframe for it - no idea what 'fast track' means.

I'll have to sit down and examine it further before I pass judgement though.

I'm the same as you Doc,

I was expecting drill targets along with resevoir/target size broken up into P10 P50 P90 along with recoverable estimates etc etc

Guess we'll have to wait a bit more for that stuff

[doctorj]

I was expecting drill targets along with resevoir/target size broken up into P10 P50 P90 along with recoverable estimates etc etc
Maybe not. Hartleys and FAR have a very close relationship - their new report (2nd report in a couple of days) has a few interesting snippets.

Report available: http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys%20research_25%20Jan_Senegal.pdf




FAR’s main targeted play in offshore Senegal was originally Santonian age fans. Three of these structures have subsequently been identified by the recent 3D seismic with potential closures in the order of 30km2. Each of these fans is prognosed to contain up to 750mmbbls of oil in-place. In addition to this, adifferent play, known as a buried hill, has been indicated by the seismic. The prospect in this play dwarfs the potential in the fans originally targeted with an estimated structural closure of 178km2. This is a step change in expectations for the potential of the acreage from over a billion barrels of oil in-place to over a billion barrels of oil recoverable.
Also, followers of FAR should get ahold of Thursday's Sky News Business Report (I think they podcast it). In it they interviewed Petsec's MD Terry Fern who talks quite a bit about Beibu and explains the path to an investment decision for the project. They've just about gotten reserves approval from the Chinese authorities and they expect to lodge a development plan in about a month. From there it'll be a month or so an investment decision.

He also says that currently Beibu has about 15 years of reserves with "plenty of upside".

[Real1ty]

I was lucky enough to have bought into FAR on Friday @.11 shortly before the survey was released.

I was also disappointed in the lack of detail and also any kind of follow up.

They need to look at marketing themselves better, although my guess would be that they are relying on NAPE for their marketing.

I emailed them Saturday and asked them other than NAPE, what sort of marketing campaign do they lined up for the following months.

I also said that i assumed there would be a far more detailed presentation of the survey for presentation at NAPE and would this be available for release to the ASX prior to NAPE.

I asked the question to them of why they didn't take the opportunity to market themselves further on the back of a positive release, albeit a brief one and will they be taking that opportunity this week.

There are mediums like Boardroom Radio, Corporate File or even a media release, that are price sensitive and will get the attention of investors.

If you guys are interested i will post the reply i get, if i get one.

I think the survey was positive, just short on detail and we aren't really much the wiser now but i would suggest the NAPE presentation will be the one that provides the details we are all hoping will be the company maker.

Cheers

[doctorj]

I emailed them Saturday and asked them other than NAPE, what sort of marketing campaign do they lined up for the following months.
I'd be interested in hearing what you get back. Michael has been at the helm of FAR for something like 2 decades now and is probably well stuck in his ways and Colin is a first time company secretary and only moved down under a few years ago, so there's a chance neither are across ideas like Boardroom Radio etc.

[doctorj]

http://www.napeexpo.com/nap08/ec/forms/attendee/index.aspx?content=vbooth&id=672

FAR's booth @ NAPE.

[Real1ty]

I'd be interested in hearing what you get back. Michael has been at the helm of FAR for something like 2 decades now and is probably well stuck in his ways and Colin is a first time company secretary and only moved down under a few years ago, so there's a chance neither are across ideas like Boardroom Radio etc.

Hey Doc.

I got a reply back yesterday and of course it comes with the usual disclaimer about not distributing it, so i will give you the gist of it.

They didn't really address my questions directly, but gave some feedback.

The seismic for NAPE is very detailed and intended for oil majors.
It is also preliminary and they are still performing AVO analysis to assist with prospect definition.

I guess that rules out any chance of the info being available prior to NAPE, although they did say that once it is done, they will be able to link to the type of mediums i mentioned.

They say they are getting good coverage across the main media platforms and their Senegal program has seen uptake levels of institutional investment reach 30 percent of their register that is approaching 4000 holders.

I don't really agree with the good coverage, but it should improve markedly now.

At the World Junior oil conference in UK in December the Chairman of the IFC identified FAR to the 350 attendees as the company that has produced the most innovative form of advertising he has seen. This is the “searching for elephants” pic which has been picked up by most of the Oil and gas mags.

All in all i get the feeling they were just fobbing me off but time will tell.

The email was from info@far, so i have no idea who it was that replied.

[doctorj]

The first of the China wells was a duster - not sure what's taken FAR so long to announce it. Their other Aussie partners announced it about an hour ago.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

The first of the China wells was a duster - not sure what's taken FAR so long to announce it. Their other Aussie partners announced it about an hour ago.

Well it took em 2 days to update re SGT well after AMU released their ann, so I guess a few hours late is not as bad :rolleyes:

We need a comprehensive update/report on what we're looking at for Senegal

[doctorj]

We need a comprehensive update/report on what we're looking at for Senegal
If you're a client of Hartley's, it's best to call them to discuss their research report. FAR (well atleast ME) doesn't have much time for the average retail investor - that's from the horse's mouth.

[debono]

Really Doc

That surprizes me.

I have had lots of emails from Michael returned generally with in a day or so.
He doesn't give too much away but that is understandable. I usually get a direct answer to any questions.
He probably knows that the average retail investor is mostly a short term punter looking for a fast trade. I think Fat Prophets was recommending 1/2 cent movement trades not that long ago.

Anyway...the main thing is 2008 looks like being a watershed year.

Whatever happens though re Senegal drill targets...ultimately it won't mean much until it pumps to the surface.

I don't get warm and fuzzy feelings about SGT either so there may be buying opportunities for a short while yet.

[mick2006]

With the NAPE oil conference kicking off next week, it is likely to kick off an extrememly exciting time for FAR and its shareholders.

Armed with a warchest of 3D seismic data FAR will be one of the real movers and shakers at this years conference, it is very rare for a company of FAR's size to be able to hold such attention on the world stage, but as has been revealed in the recent 3D seismic data from Senegal, FAR and its partners are likely to be sitting on targets of over 3 billion barrels of oil in place (OIP) or over 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil (see recent Hartley's research to confirm target sizes)

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys%20research_25%20Jan_Senegal.pdf

In terms of the size of targets the HUNT/FAR is likely to be one of largest if not the largest available for farm in at this year conference, putting HUNT/FAR in a very strong bargaining position.

It is also important to remember not only will the world's oil major's be attending but all the top oil/gas analysts will also be there, so expect to see some institutional action in FAR shareprice as the world starts to come to grips with the potential of FAR going forward.

Below is a grab from a recent article highlighting the value of FAR's 30% stake in Senegal

Unprecedented Interest in West Africa

With the major oil companies searching the globe for areas with potential for huge oil fields, under explored West Africa has captured their attention. West Africa continues to be viewed by the industry as one of the few regions outside the Middle East capable of hosting big enough hydrocarbon reservoirs to attract the major oil companies. As illustrated in Figure 1, there are a number of majors that surround FAR�s acreage including Woodside Petroleum Limited, Dana Petroleum Plc, Tullow Plc and Edison International. FAR is the only junior ASX listed company along the Mauritania-Senegal-Guinea Bissau offshore trend.

Recent activity in West Africa by some of the majors include:

* Edison completed a 1,500km2 3D seismic survey in the Rufisque Deep Offshore block to the north.
* Kuwait Foreign Exploration Co recently purchased BG Group PLC�s interests in Mauritania for $128 million.
* A recent auction of acreage in the Congo Basin, offshore Angola, for three deepwater exploration tracts saw international oil companies bid in excess of US$3.1b in signature bonuses alone. This amount is reportedly the highest ever offered for exploration anywhere in the world.
* Gaz de France has recently agreed to study the feasibility of an LNG project based on deepwater gas discoveries in nearby Mauritania.


It's incredible to imagine a company the size of FAR playing in the same arena as the worlds major's such as Shell,CNOOC,Exxon Mobil,BP and the like, but that is exactly what they have on their hands in regards Senegal a world class prospect.

Check out page 14 of FAR's Upstream Energy presentation to get an idea of the location and quality of their prospects.

http://www.far.com.au/files/asxannounce/Elodge%20ID458580%2023May07%20-%20Upstream%20Energy%202007.pdf

Next week is a huge step for FAR and as speculation mounts as to who they manage to attract to farmin to the Senegal acreage, expect to see some substantial shareprice upside.

[Trader Paul]

Posted 03012008:

Hi folks,

FAR ... disregarding the fundamentals, the attached file contains some
detailed, but simple Gann astroanalysis and an updated FAR chart ... :)

happy days

paul


=====

:)

Hi folks,


FAR news comes in, right on time ... and FAR has some more positive
cycles to come, over the next few weeks or so ..... :)

Posted 03012008:

05022008 ... more news expected ... start of a new upleg???

08-11022008 ... 2 positive cycles to lift FAR, again.

04-07032008 ... 2 aspects to bring positive news and a .22 high, here ???

10032008 ... negative spotlight on FAR


have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[STRAT]

:)

Hi folks,


and a .22 high, here ???


have a great day

paul

:)

=====
Hi Yogi,

Are you predicting a price here?
You have been on the money so far and certainly proved your point with MEO on the other site.

I look forward to seeing how this plays out.

[Purd2]

http://energy.ihs.com/News/WW-News/n...ts-Senegal.htm

Preliminary interpretation of the 2,086 sq km 3D seismic data acquired by Hunt in March 2007 in the Sangomar Shallow and Sangomar Deep blocks has highlighted multiple plays including a giant Buried Hills (Albian) target. Mapped are multiple Santonian age fan systems with stacked amplitude anomalies and a very large Albian to Neocomian shelf edge closure. The Albian/Aptian section was previously believed to be made of clastic rocks, but seismic suggests it is a carbonate shelf with potential reef build-up. The company has plans for drilling on both blocks in 2008. Two drillable prospects have been identified from previous seismic data in the Sangomar Deep block, namely Palmarin and Djifere. The Palmarin Prospect lies about 110km from the coast in 2,150m of water, and the Djifere Prospect is located 90km from the coast in 1,250m of water. Current license interests are Hunt (60%), First Australian Resources (35%) and Petrosen (10%). Prior to the 3D survey, significant upside potential within the acreage was thought to exceed 1 billion barrels recoverable.

Bold lettering my doing! Cheers P

[Georgeb]

Does anyone see any real upside on this stock? It is dissapointing to see it in the 12-13c range. The risk of failure is high but the return can be higher.

[Mikii]

anyone still holding ???
results from china and senegal will be out soon...
iv been holding since....november.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

anyone still holding ???
results from china and senegal will be out soon...
iv been holding since....november.

Still holding Mikii, waiting for Senegal targets, the 1Bl barrel targets should cause some interest and allow us to take some profits (hopefully)

China drilling has been disapointing so far :banghead:

[wildmanchris]

Still holding as well - getting a bit bored of it though. Its the only stock I hold and would like some Senagalese action.

[Georgeb]

When are we expecting an announcement on Senegal?

I have been buying all the way down to 10c and I am confident in the long run this will increase in value. At the moment all the stocks are getting hammered.

[Mikii]

yeah same here, i been buying little parcels each time it drops.
we should be expecting senegal by the end of march. hopefully it will look like BRM's announcement on 5th march... :):):)

[Trader Paul]

Posted 08012008:

Hi folks,

FAR ...

1403-02042008 ... 2 opposing and underlying cycle here for FAR, may make
for some volatile trading, especially, around:

28032008 ... 3 significant and negative cycles are triggered by a lunar
aspect, while another positive cycle is also in play. So,
expect some significant events here for FAR. Looking for a low ?


... and then, April should be stronger for FAR:

Our mechanical target date, calculated from the price move above (in days),
gave us 03042008, as a target in early April.

Soon after that target, our astroanalysis has uncovered several positive
cycles to lift FAR off its lows or breakout from resistance, at that time:

08-09042008 ... positive spotlight on FAR

11-14042008 ... significant and positive news expected here

18-21042008 ... difficult cycle in play here ... negative ... pullback???

21-22042008 ... significant and positive cycle ... finance-related???

25-28042008 ... difficult cycle here, but more news expected.

Next round of positive cycles for FAR, should get started, around 28072008.


More later .....

happy trading

paul


=====

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... trading to the plan so far ... looking for a low over the next
couple of trading sessions, ahead of some positive time cycles, in
the first half of this month ... see cycles detailed in post, above ... :)

have a great day

paul

P.S. ..... holding FAR

:)

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi Paul,

Its very interesting, your time cycle has FAR having significant positive news around the 11th-14th of this month, I would suspect that coincidentally coincides with the release of Senegal drilling targets,

Unfortunatley the game in oilers has changed due to mkt conditions and lack of cash, as such I don't think these high risk elephant prospects will be as easy to farm out as they once were

I was also a bit surprised (though not really) to see Grigor retire, its not like he did much for the company anyway

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi YT,

FAR ..... next week ... should see this one lifting off its recent lows ... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[wildmanchris]

I really hope you're right on this one Paul - im holding as well, but a company making promises re info dates and not delivering on time really really annoys me.

I should have gotten used to this by now - and I understand there are challenges but still :D

Edit - hitting 9 is a low for recent times - from what my charting software tells me the last time it went this low was 2005.

[bhutos]

Edit - hitting 9 is a low for recent times - from what my charting software tells me the last time it went this low was 2005.

Aye, I took a small position in it today. I've been looking at it for months and am glad I was investing elsewhere. 8.8-9c was a bit too good to pass up even though I probably should have accumulated more in something else.

[wildmanchris]

Annoucement re Senegal proving they are actually doing something with the results/farmout.

Up 10% today which is good as it was starting to test my patience and belief.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

what the 40M barrels to over 3Billion barrels of oil target?

That has to be the biggest P10 to P90 range I have ever seen, thats just nuts,

its almost on a 1 - 100 range ie 30M - 3Billion, crazy

Anyway this is what we've been waiting for, now lets see if any of the majors step up to the plate

[wildmanchris]

what the 40M barrels to over 3Billion barrels of oil target?

That has to be the biggest P10 to P90 range I have ever seen, thats just nuts,

its almost on a 1 - 100 range ie 30M - 3Billion, crazy

Anyway this is what we've been waiting for, now lets see if any of the majors step up to the plate


Is a bit crazy YT - but any news is better than bad news, esspecially when we have been hanging out for so long.

[Georgeb]

YT, do you think this stock has value at these prices and would you consider buying into it?

I personally think it has upside value as long as they can engage a partner for senegal...

[mick2006]

you got to love a company that does a bit of self promotion, anyone that has been keeping an eye on FAR already knew the potential of Senegal, funny that all it took was a simple media release.

can you imagine what will happen once they farm out the prospect and get closer to drilling.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Still holding Mikii, waiting for Senegal targets, the 1Bl barrel targets should cause some interest and allow us to take some profits (hopefully)

China drilling has been disapointing so far :banghead:

Well it took aboout 2 months but we got there didn't we guys, lol

I sold a fair few today so that I can free carry my remaining portion,

FAR is a great stock but until a major steps up to sort out the funding side of Senegal in current mkts I am weary

[fodder-oz]

so where to now for FAR? Any predictions on price? Still behind a little from where i bought but this news looks very promising.

[Red Dog]

This came up on Global Insite yesterday. Thought there would have been an announcement to the ASX. Hope it does not delay drilling in Senegal.

XTO Buys Hunt Oil for US$4.19 bil.
XTO, a U.S. domestic independent with a focus on natural gas production, has announced its intention to purchase Hunt Oil for US$4.186 billion. The purchase is to be funded by a combination of 62% cash and 38% common stock, and is expected to close by September 2008. XTO's first-quarter production this year stood at 1.71 bcfe/d of natural gas, over 51,500 b/d of crude oil, and nearly 16,000 b/d of natural gas liquids (NGL).

Significance: XTO has waxed lyrical about the merger, with the company's president, Keith Hutton, describing it as "a super-charged bolt-on" for the company. Essentially, XTO will acquire gas- and oil-producing assets across the U.S. Gulf Coast region, Bakken Shale assets in North Dakota, and acreage in the North Sea. The company will add nearly 1 million net acres of producing and undeveloped leasehold to its books, in turn adding approximately 1.052 tcfe of natural gas reserves, 197 mmcf/d of natural gas production, 8,500 b/d of crude oil output, and 2,300 b/d of NGL. The company intends to keep with its long-held strategy of using technology and geological expertise to increase proven reserves, and subsequently investing to boost production.

[doctorj]

This came up on Global Insite yesterday. Thought there would have been an announcement to the ASX. Hope it does not delay drilling in Senegal.
This "Hunt" is completely different to the Hunt First Australian partners in Senegal.

No impact here.

[fodder-oz]

any ideas out there why this stock is dropping? After there 1 billion oil find I thought this would have stayed higher, considering the potential for drilling this out at some point in time.

[pan]

In a Trading Halt at the moment.

Pending an annoucement to the market regarding capital raising.

Definitely need some senegal news!

[fodder-oz]

Announcement made, capital raising up to $4 mill, existing holders get to buy up to $5k at 8c each in a Share purchase program.

Funds used for their work programme over the coming monthes.

What do people think?

[qeegbill]

The negatives are that there will be a share dilution and that the SP will probably retreat to the 8 cent level. The upside is the upcoming drilling program has a lot of promise. I hope that an offtake partner can be found for Senegal and the market will come to recognise the potential of this stock.

I am a holder of FAR

DYOR


Announcement made, capital raising up to $4 mill, existing holders get to buy up to $5k at 8c each in a Share purchase program.

Funds used for their work programme over the coming monthes.

What do people think?

[fodder-oz]

An annoucement made today, SP up today which is good.


FAR PRODUCTION & REVENUES SET TO LEAP

SUMMARY
• A rig is presently on location and has commenced completion of the 5500’ Sand in
the #6 well Lake Long Well in South Louisiana (FAR >31%)
• The Operator estimates this zone is capable of producing around 1.5 million cubic
feet of gas per day, approximately $US500,000 per month
• Subject to testing, the well should commence sales from the 5500’ Sand next week
• In September a further well is to be drilled at Lake Long (FAR >31%). The S.L. 328
#28 ST well will test 5 sands between 6700’ and 8500’ that have produced elsewhere
in the field
• North East Waller, Texas Gulf Coast (FAR 34%) drilling programme likely to
commence in August
S.L. 328 #6 well, Lake Long, South Louisiana (FAR 31.375%) - Rig on location
A rig is presently on location and has commenced a completion of the 5500 Sand in the #6
well. The 5500 Sand has been perforated with gas recorded at surface. The well will now be
gravel packed prior to testing and then turned to existing sales facilities. Subject to testing the
well is expected to commence sales from the 5500’ Sand within a few days.
The Operator, Kriti Exploration Inc, estimates this zone to be capable of 1-2 million cubic
feet of gas per day (US$335,100-US$670,200 per month at $11.17 per thousand cubic feet
gas pricing). The total cost of the plug back and recompletion is estimated at US$210,000.
The #6 well was successfully drilled by Kriti and FAR in 1997 and has been progressively
produced from multiple pay zones lower in the wellbore.
S.L. 328 #28 ST well, Lake Long Field, South Louisiana (FAR 31.375% (14 Sand) and
1.375% (Shallow sands)
Plans are being advanced for the drilling of a further well at Lake Long. The S.L. 328 #28 ST
well is to be sidetracked out of the #28 original well bore and directionally drilled to test four
sands between 6700’ and 7500’ that have produced in down dip wells in the field and the
deeper 14 Sand at 8500’.
ASX Release 24 July 08 Page 2
Based on 3D seismic and subsurface data the upper target zones will be at the crest of the
structure. The deeper zone (14 Sand) will be directionally drilled to a total depth of 8,500
feet. This zone is interpreted to be productive by logs and sidewall cores in the nearby #6 well
which indicate that the reservoir has a gas cap with an oil rim. The productivity of the 14
Sand is also supported by an energy absorption anomaly and increased amplitude on the crest
of the structure.
The original #28 well has been shut in for a period of 2 years after recoverable reserves in that
well had been depleted. The old wellbore will now be used to re-enter and sidetrack over to
an adjacent underexploited block thereby saving on drilling costs.
ASX Release 24 July 08 Page 3
On a dry hole basis the total cost of the #28ST well is estimated to be US$1.8 million. There
is low risk of a dry hole due to the multiple objectives. Timing is scheduled for September
2008. The Operator estimates the 14 Sand to be capable of producing 1.5 million cubic feet of
gas and 50 barrels of condensate per day.
All working interests at Lake Long are subject to State and other minor royalties. The Lake
Long Field is operated by Kriti Exploration Inc.

[fodder-oz]

Finally share price has gone up.. 22% today.. Based on I would expect on the announcement today.

Any people out there holding FAR through these turbulent times? Hope this goes up not like a bouncing dog.

[Real1ty]

Finally share price has gone up.. 22% today.. Based on I would expect on the announcement today.

Any people out there holding FAR through these turbulent times? Hope this goes up not like a bouncing dog.

Yes, i'm a long term holder and have a price of .11 so am sitting on a loss, but i didn't invest in the SPP as i thought we would go a lot lower so apart from dilution, i haven't sunk anymore into them.

I'm quite happy to hold and am only in this stock for 1 reason, Senegal.

I think we will head back to around .06 and i might top up with some more.

Patience needed.

[fodder-oz]

Finally some upward movement of this stock up to 3.1c a 47% jump today so far. Quarterly report released late last week. Lets hope farming out starts soon and more oil found!


FAR Ltd ASX Qtr Sept 08 Page 2
•
farm in offers have been obtained from large, global oil and gas companies with access to rigs and proven capacity to operate deepwater wells;
•
the joint venture has met and exceeded all their obligations under the first renewal period and have spent US$17 million being twice the minimum amount specified under the Contract;
•
in doing so, the JV has acquired one of the largest 3D surveys off the northwest coast of Africa covering an area exceeding 2000 square kilometers resulting in a high quality data set that has been processed into a world class seismic volume;
•
the work has been accomplished as quickly as possible with due care and attention to detail and resulted in offers being generated.
FAR is seeking to be free carried through the drilling of an exploratory well.

[fodder-oz]

Good jump today for FAR after announcement up 90% to 4.2c.

Just wishing I bought some more when they were 2c. Oh well I am in for the long run with Senegal anyways.

May interest those traders out there:)

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... a good announcement today, as FAR increases it's interest to 90%
in its Senegal play ..... no doubt, that will be reduced as negotiations
continue with prospective farm-in partners, with the aim of maintaining FAR
in a free-carried position, in the months ahead.

Expecting some very significant news from the FAR camp in early April 2009,
as several positive time cycles come into play, in the period 02-09042009.

Also shooting for 13.5, then a 17 cent target, by the end of March 2010,
with a big negative time cycle due, soon after.

Looking at the longer-term FAR chart, attached below, we can clearly appreciate
the right-hand bias on the price movement since June 2003, with recent lows
making a huge double bottom ..... :)

http://i555.photobucket.com/albums/jj465/yogi-in-oz/FARupdate22012009.jpg

More later.

have a great day

paul

P.S. ..... holding FAR.

:)

=====

[Purd2]

Finally some upward movement of this stock up to 3.1c a 47% jump today so far. Quarterly report released late last week. Lets hope farming out starts soon and more oil found!


FAR Ltd ASX Qtr Sept 08 Page 2
•
farm in offers have been obtained from large, global oil and gas companies with access to rigs and proven capacity to operate deepwater wells;
•
the joint venture has met and exceeded all their obligations under the first renewal period and have spent US$17 million being twice the minimum amount specified under the Contract;
•
in doing so, the JV has acquired one of the largest 3D surveys off the northwest coast of Africa covering an area exceeding 2000 square kilometers resulting in a high quality data set that has been processed into a world class seismic volume;
•
the work has been accomplished as quickly as possible with due care and attention to detail and resulted in offers being generated.
FAR is seeking to be free carried through the drilling of an exploratory well.


It is going to be very interesting to see who the new JV partner will be. Can you believe FAR's luck? This could end up a fairy tale in the current nasty financial environment! There are going to be some very wealthy people made from this coy IF they hit what is expected to be found offshore Senegal.
I would advise anyone who wants a "punt" for a few grand to plonk on FAR.
BUT do your own research, of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! P

[pan]

The price has increased 30% in the last few days, volume is also increasing.

would be good to get a chartists view?

thanks

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

FAR ..... a good announcement today, as FAR increases it's interest to 90%
in its Senegal play ..... no doubt, that will be reduced as negotiations
continue with prospective farm-in partners, with the aim of maintaining FAR
in a free-carried position, in the months ahead.

Expecting some very significant news from the FAR camp in early April 2009,
as several positive time cycles come into play, in the period 02-09042009.

Also shooting for 13.5, then a 17 cent target, by the end of March 2010,
with a big negative time cycle due, soon after.

Looking at the longer-term FAR chart, attached below, we can clearly appreciate
the right-hand bias on the price movement since June 2003, with recent lows
making a huge double bottom ..... :)

http://i555.photobucket.com/albums/jj465/yogi-in-oz/FARupdate22012009.jpg

More later.

have a great day

paul

P.S. ..... holding FAR.

=====

:)

Hi folks,

FAR ..... expecting some significant news out of this camp,
in the first 2 weeks of April 2009 ..... :)

03042009 ... 2 significant and positive time cycles
expected to bring positive news.

09042009 ... a positive spotlight on FAR will be
tempered by a negative time cycle, so
we may see some volatile trading.

20042009 ... minor news expected here.

11052009 ... minor cycle here

18052009 ... minor and positive cycle expected.

25052009 ... positive cycle expected ... finances ???

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

FAR ..... expecting some significant news out of this camp,
in the first 2 weeks of April 2009 .....

03042009 ... 2 significant and positive time cycles
expected to bring positive news.

09042009 ... a positive spotlight on FAR will be
tempered by a negative time cycle, so
we may see some volatile trading.

20042009 ... minor news expected here.

11052009 ... minor cycle here

18052009 ... minor and positive cycle expected.

25052009 ... positive cycle expected ... finances ???

have a great day

paul


=====

:)



Hi folks,

FAR ..... ticking up nicely now ..... it looks like the bucket may have sprung
a leak already, ahead of some positive time cycles, due in early-April 2009 .....

... see post above for more details on the relevant cycles ..... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[Trade wind]

Woo hoo, Shell onboard for a farm-in deal on FAR's offshore Senegal prospect. That April news has come early Trader Paul. Been holding these shares, like a lot of others, because of Senegal, the biggest thing this junior has ever seen. Still some ways to go before drilling, but with a seismic survey under their belt to flog this project, Shell is obviously impressed. Got to hand it to FAR management, they are persistent. Other lesser beings may have sold off the rights at bargain rates in the downtown.

Interesting to see what happens Friday when they come out of the trading halt with and announce their capital raising.

[pan]

Woo hoo, Shell onboard for a farm-in deal on FAR's offshore Senegal prospect. That April news has come early Trader Paul. Been holding these shares, like a lot of others, because of Senegal, the biggest thing this junior has ever seen. Still some ways to go before drilling, but with a seismic survey under their belt to flog this project, Shell is obviously impressed. Got to hand it to FAR management, they are persistent. Other lesser beings may have sold off the rights at bargain rates in the downtown.

Interesting to see what happens Friday when they come out of the trading halt with and announce their capital raising.

I don't like the fact they are bringing the capital raising out when they have a free carry option on the well?

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

FAR ..... expecting some significant news out of this camp,
in the first 2 weeks of April 2009 ..... :)

03042009 ... 2 significant and positive time cycles
expected to bring positive news.

09042009 ... a positive spotlight on FAR will be
tempered by a negative time cycle, so
we may see some volatile trading.

20042009 ... minor news expected here.

11052009 ... minor cycle here

18052009 ... minor and positive cycle expected.

25052009 ... positive cycle expected ... finances ???

have a great day

paul



=====

:)

First Australian ..... FAR is looking good from here ..... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[sw3]

Long time reader, first time poster.

I've done a search but had no joy. Does anyone have any thoughts about FAR?

[sw3]

Well I guess there's my answer! It will be interesting to see how this performs in the next near future. Will be contemplating a buy.

[fodder-oz]

FAR is looking better all the time with another 11% jump today to bring share price to 8cents. Lets hope news with Shell works out well as I can see this being a very very good stock if this works out.

[happytown]

ann out this morning

the shell-funded off-shore data acquisition phase has started and is expected to take 2 weeks, thence interpretation etc of results to determine whether or not shell will exercise an option to 70% interest in the licence area and well development etc

sp up slightly on mediocre volume

cheers :)

[sw3]

So the two weeks is up and I'm wondering how it went...? I know there's data to interpret etc. Anyone with any idea what's going on?

[sagitar]

Hi all,
Anyone watching this one? Thought I'd post a chart of FAR. It has been trading in a solid rising channel since Oct last year. They own substantial parcels off the coast of Senegal, with the potential of over a billion barrels of recoverable oil. A JV deal with Shell will see a substantial re-rating. I bought a huge package today based on possible avenues this company may venture in near future. Good-sized breakout today but this could be a drop in the bucket compared with the bigger picture potential. Next resistance appears to be around 10c in the short term. If that breaks then hold onto your horses...LOL. Happy trading. ;)

[JnrTrader]

Hi all,
Anyone watching this one? Thought I'd post a chart of FAR. It has been trading in a solid rising channel since Oct last year. They own substantial parcels off the coast of Senegal, with the potential of over a billion barrels of recoverable oil. A JV deal with Shell will see a substantial re-rating. I bought a huge package today based on possible avenues this company may venture in near future. Good-sized breakout today but this could be a drop in the bucket compared with the bigger picture potential. Next resistance appears to be around 10c in the short term. If that breaks then hold onto your horses...LOL. Happy trading. ;)

well sagitar, their 10c target was reached, they got to 10.5c before coming back to 8.5, anyone keen to speculate on a huge increase in volume and an early 2c rise

[sagitar]

Hi JnrTrader, FAR certainly reached its target although IMO I think we'll see some retracing of the share price before speculation (or a positive announcement) drives it up again. Shell have 60 days left in which to decide on whether to proceed to the drilling stage, but that of course will depend upon completion of the CSEM analysis and interpretation of results. If the predicted oil reserves are there and are recoverable I think Shell will proceed, although a decision one way or other may not be for awhile yet (IMHO). Let's see.

[doctorj]

Based on the timelines in the Shell/FAR agreement, Shell have until, approximately, the end of August to exercise their option. Obviously I don't know anything about the internal approval process for this sort of deal in Shell (board, exec committee, individual), but I'm strongly of the opinion that it is more likely to happen in July than August and certainly quite unlikely in the second half of August. August summer holidays are a religion here and people like to get things done and dusted before then.

[pops11]

Holders like mid July to late for an ANN due to holidays etc happening over UK way but hey thats just quess work by all of us, good luck to holders.:)

[Georgeb]

It will be interesting to see if Shell take up the offer..I suspect we will know in the next few weeks..

[pops11]

I bought in on Friday not a huge amount but decided with all the good news floating around that it may well be worth the gamble, i believe if Shell dont then someone else will, there was a good article in the AFR about USA looking to Africa for more oil, Senegal is looking like a big find and has got a good Governing body so should be no issues there but im sure others will have options and points to tell.

[Annwn]

Update on chart

Broken upwards from Decending triangle,
not a convincing pattern with the close in the lowere half
of the price range for the last 5 days

Cheers

[fodder-oz]

Good day on Monday for Far up 22% to 11.5cents. Retraced 0.5 cent on Tuesday, I guess profit takers selling.

A good quarterly income statement I think was the reason, plus all us holder are hanging on and preying that Shell takes the option to farm out senegal. From Hartleys I think they quote it's 50% chance but they are guessing I'd say.

Exciting times for this minnow stock, has seen stock price triple and more since march. I only wish I bought more at such low prices but was holding a loss. Oh well no one can predicy the future.

Anyone else have any news on the Shell deal, other then the August 30 deadline?

Whats peoples thoughts if this goes through on potential upside? 20 cents or more lets hope :-)

[fodder-oz]

Another good day so for FAR up 18% or 2c to 13c. Good thing volumes is increasing quite nicely and there are more buyers then sellers. This could become very interesting as anticipation grows about the Shell deal which is still 1 month away from the deadline.

So interested if anyone finds any further news regarding this agreement.

Cheers,
Ian

[fodder-oz]

Up 22% today hit a yearly high of 14c at one point. Looks good hopefully from here, trend and volumes look fantastic. Lets hope the asx keeps going up for the ride into profits :-)

[sidious]

Well done for FAR holders. I remember trading this weeks ago but sold off at the high 90s. I was thinking of buying at 0.135 but felt like I'll be the buying at the top of the market. It's going to be quite a show when Shell decides not to take up the option.