WPL - Woodside Petroleum

[markrmau]

WPL finished strongly on friday. On Monday I am going to dump my NWS which doesn't seem to be going anywhere and by more WPL.

[Bingo]

WPL finished strongly on friday. On Monday I am going to dump my NWS which doesn't seem to be going anywhere and by more WPL.


I agree that WPL go from strength tom strength, however, it seems to me that the price of NWS may be week as the institutions are still reducing their holdings.

I suppose this is what makes a market, but, I am buying NWS on the expectation that the current weekness will be short lived.

Bingo

[markrmau]

In 12months, I think NWS will be spinning of great wads of cash and will be worth close to 30 AUD. In the short term, with AUD going up, instos selling, maybe this weekness will continue.

On the otherhand, I can't work out why wpl went up so much. On another site, there is a suggestion that shell might be interested in having another tilt at wpl after Costello's wmc decission. I'm not convinced that shell would do this, despite shell having spare $$ lying around.

Should I stay on one train, wondering when it will leave the station, or dash madly from platform to platform chasing trains as they pull away?

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

Currently also have a bullish view for WPL, and also did go long on Friday, though trading warrants, as they offered a T11 day settlement + the leverage effect, for technical profit targets.

In the Chart below WPL shows:

* A technical support at $20.30 (also a triple bottom, is appearing, though isn't quite clear on the chart)
* WPL is dancing along a primary long uptrend
* Symentrical Triangular Breakout
* Flag pattern appearing (and finishing on the triple bottom..) (possible technical breakout)
* Candlestick pattern is a Marubozu Candlestick (Bullish Candlestick indicator, the candlestick is showing no shadows as wicks, and the open is showing, a push in price, with a close of the highest price for the day.

Technical Targets are $21.29, as technical resistance, though a break or close above this technical resistance, would indicate a very bullish breakout...

Cheers,
sis

ps.. will add technical indicators, to show further bullishness...

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

RSI - has been rangeing, and is in positive territory, showing a positive bounce.

MACD - turning positive and showing MA turning upwards, and about to cross.
Though Divergence is still negative

Stochastics - have turned positive, and have crossed.

** Though also, stochastics are commonly the first sign of a reversal, confirmed with candlesticks, then followed by other technical indicators secondly..

Cheers,
sis

ps.. please only take my technical analysis as a guide of predicted price and market movements.

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

unfortunately, ive been exiting out of WPL this mornning, not because of the stock and its technicals, but due to its Warrant Spread..

Did end up getting a very high price, for about a third of my position, though the market makers.. had almost a ridiculous spread at one time of about 20 cents difference.

Im still bullish about WPL, though there seems to be some resistance at that $21.00 mark, though it got broken through today...

Anyway, i do believe they are having a report of earnings and the usual stuff.. coming out this thursday..

Will be looking to re-enter, though, most likely will be trading options instead.. due the wide spread.. (and to limit risk, than take on more risk)

Cheers,
sis

[markrmau]

Buyers seem to be coming back into the market now - about 2.30pm.

If it finishes above 2095 I am hoping it will continue up tomorrow. As you say above 2100 would be very good sign.

[markrmau]

Well I'm going to need a new set of undies. Nice recovery though.

I set myself a stop loss of $21.10, but the volume was so light by the time it got down near there that I didn't worry.

[Bin57again]

Hi
I'm a beginner and wondering whether WPL is starting to form a head and shoulders top.
Could any of the experts confirm or correct me please?
Apologies no chart but I'm sure you all have access anyway.
Thanks.

[RichKid]

Hi
I'm a beginner and wondering whether WPL is starting to form a head and shoulders top.
Could any of the experts confirm or correct me please?
Apologies no chart but I'm sure you all have access anyway.
Thanks.

Hi Bin,
I'm not an expert but I've had a quick look at the chart out of curiosity, can't really see a H&S top atm, maybe I've missed it.

[michael_selway]

WPL is only good if oil prices go up

once it goes down....

[doctorj]

WPL is only good if oil prices go up

once it goes down....

I wholeheartedly disagree. Oil is at $60/barrel. Onshore oil costs about $10/bl to produce, a shallow offshore $16 and deep offshore about $22. This means WPL is pulling in, at the low end USD$38 per barrel profit. There reserves, in their own valuations are valued at AUD$5 per barrel. Even when discounting the cash flow for taxes, royalties and the time value of money and using the assumption that oil their oil is in deep offshore fields, you come up with a figure of USD$15.

Sure, oil prices may revert to the mean, but using AUD$5 in valuations works out to be an implied price of approx USD$34 per barrel. Hands up who thinks oil is going to go back down to those levels any time soon?

[Knobby22]

I agree. It's a safe long term investment.

[RichKid]

Saw this on another forum- I think it's so good I'm posting it here, I like non-conventional thinking, you can bet your bottom dollar the average punter will think the opposite.


http://www.energyreview.net
Monday, December 05, 2005

SLUGCATCHER'S Quiz Time.

You've got $10 billion to spare, three liquefied natural gas projects on the drawing boards, and each one will cost about $5 billion.

Do you:

(a) develop the one located 450km off the coast, in waters ranging from 90m to 550m deep, and in which you have a 33.44% interest or,

(b) develop the one 400km off the coast, in waters ranging from 400m to 800m deep, and in which you have a 50% interest or,

(c) develop the one 190km off the coast, in waters ranging from 80m to 175m deep, and in which you have a 100% interest.

The rules of the quiz are that you can only pick two, and those two must generate the maximum return to the shareholders.

For slow readers, and those lacking any business acumen, the answer is obvious; (b) and (c) are better investment options, and they are infinitely better when you consider another question: would you prefer your $10 billion to be sunk into the waters of a politically stable country with a strong rule of law.

By now, astute readers will have recognised that The Slug is not really running a quiz. This is a real life, real time, situation that involves Australia, East Timor and Woodside Petroleum, and it's one that burst back into life last week.

On Friday, the governments of the two countries announced that they had initialled a deal to divide the spoils from offshore oil and gas production, theoretically bringing to an end several years of tortuous talks over plans to develop the Sunrise LNG project in the Timor Sea.

The government chappies, apparently oblivious to events in the field, declared it a time for rejoicing. Australia's Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, even forecast that the deal could mean a windfall to East Timor of $14.5 billion over the next 20 years.

Sorry, Alexander, but that's just a little ambitious. For starters, there is no way any money is flowing to East Timor from Sunrise in the "next" few years. It's possible some time in the future that money will flow, but it will be an awful long time into the future.

The problem, which seems to have eluded politicians and civil servants on both sides of the Timor Trench, is that it is not in Woodside's best interest to rush the development of Sunrise.

While December 2 may be seen as a day to celebrate the reaching of an agreement on the Timor Sea oil and gasfields, a much more important day was March 29 – the day Woodside announced the discovery of the Pluto gasfield off the Western Australian coast.

It was on that day that Woodside said it had hit a 209m column of gas at Pluto, an event which changed everything in the life of East Timor, simply because Pluto is in relatively shallow water, it is relatively close to the coast, it is 100% in Australian waters, and it is 100% owned by Woodside.

For Woodside executives this is a no-brainer. Pluto is first cab off the LNG rank, followed by Browse, which is also in Australian waters, and is 50% owned by Woodside.

Sunrise, with a fiscal regime that is still not certain, partially in waters of a small and difficult country, has slipped way down the development schedule. It might even stay close to the bottom of the schedule because Woodside is still busily exploring its Australian acreage (and might find more gas), and East Timor continues to rabbit on about locating the proposed LNG plant on its shores.

For some strange reason, the chaps in Dili still seem to think that you can run a gas pipeline across a 3000m deep seabed trench.

The Slug puts this kind of thinking in the loopy category – and adds it to the pile of reasons as to why Woodside will not do much about Sunrise this year, or next, or the year after that.

In fact, nothing will happen until fiscal certainty is achieved (we're not there yet), silly talk about an LNG plant in East Timor disappears, and Woodside management has free time after developing Pluto and Browse – say, in about 10 to 15 years time.

[michael_selway]

I wholeheartedly disagree. Oil is at $60/barrel. Onshore oil costs about $10/bl to produce, a shallow offshore $16 and deep offshore about $22. This means WPL is pulling in, at the low end USD$38 per barrel profit. There reserves, in their own valuations are valued at AUD$5 per barrel. Even when discounting the cash flow for taxes, royalties and the time value of money and using the assumption that oil their oil is in deep offshore fields, you come up with a figure of USD$15.

Sure, oil prices may revert to the mean, but using AUD$5 in valuations works out to be an implied price of approx USD$34 per barrel. Hands up who thinks oil is going to go back down to those levels any time soon?

Hi true long term its pretty good, but ill say maybe 10-20 yrs. IMO i think there will be yrs when prices will fall back down possibly <$50/Barrel which WPL may return negative for shareholders

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/higher-oil-output-to-push-down-petrol-price/2005/11/18/1132016987201.html

[Ann]

..and a chart....

[lewstherin]

WPL copped a hammering today - dropped around 4.5%. Of course most of the oilers have taken 4-5% losses today.
I'm wondering whether any of the peeps here have got any kind of target buy price for WPL, and more importantly what reasoning they are using for that.

Personally I like WPL for a long term play, but felt the upper 40s was an over-pricing. With it skimming $41 today, I'm now re-examining the value proposition.

[Realist]

Personally I like WPL for a long term play, but felt the upper 40s was an over-pricing. With it skimming $41 today, I'm now re-examining the value proposition.

I do not believe there is any value in Woodside at all.


Sure a Hurricane could hit the States or a war starts in Iran, and the shares rocket upwards. But that is not value now - that is gambling on the future.

Woodside is tremendously overpriced atm, it's Australia's 8 largest company. Buy Westfield instead - Australia's 9th largest company. :D

The P/E rate is 1/4 of Woodside.

Longterm would you rather own some good oil fields or have the worlds foremost shopping malls?

Oil is in fashion now much like pink shirts were 2 years ago. The world is not short of oil and oil is overpriced as it is. It wont go up much more. Forget it!

[kennas]

Realist,

Depends on your theory on oil.

Are there any other alternate energy sources to solve the worlds energy needs over the next 10 years?
Will the key oil producers keep providing oil unobstructed by political expedience?
Will the Middle East be at peace over the next 10 years?
Will America stop trying to influence the rest of the world, politically and economically?
Have there been any recent massive oil field discoveries?
Have resource companies invested enough in exploration?
Is there an infinite supply of oil trapped under the earths crust?

If your answer to most of the above is NO, then oil is probably going to go UP in cost, not down.

[lewstherin]

I have 2 reasons for considering Woodside at a $40-41 price.

1:
Personally I cannot see oil dropping below $60 any time soon due to the supply situation.
Unlike a metal like gold, people/countries cannot just stop using oil because they believe its overpriced; there just isnt enough in the alternative fuels pipeline to reduce the worlds oil dependancy for the next 10 years at least. And even if you believe there's plenty of oil under the ground, getting sufficient supplies above ground is an issue at present and will be going forward.
I have generally valued oilers based on an oil market price of $55-65/barrel given its volatility (I wouldn't be surprised to see oil drop to around $60-65 by August before climbing back up for the Northern winter). Any extra earnings on a price over $60 is bonus for me.

2:
Gas. Right now natural gas is probably near its lowest point in the annual demand cycle given that the North is having summer. When winter hits, I think gas could get a bit more pricy, but I need to research the D/S situation a bit more.
Beyond annual cycles, I think gas is increasingly becoming a stepping stone towards reducing oil dependancy for many countries. LPG is a viable fuel alternative and gas power plants have some advantages environmentally over coal. I think the developing countries - China and India - may well drive this demand as gas infrastructure becomes more prevalent there.

If anything Woodside has huge gas production prospects for the next 10 years, thanks to it being involved in some of the best gas fields on the planet.
Should the world go gas before getting onto alternative fuels, surely Woodside will be well positioned to provide to the associated growing demand?

I'm gonna have a crack tonight at doing a valuation based on WPL's oil & gas production forecasts going forward. That might help clarify things regarding a decent value for the shares.

[Knobby22]

To add to that, Woodside will be operating a lot more fields in two years time expecially their new gas filed which will be a real earner.

[GreatPig]

For all those EW gurus out there, here's my current markup of WPL. Trying to decide if it's perhaps starting another wave 1 right now.

The way I see it, the unmarked wave starting in Feb 2005 could have been the wave 1, which would make what I have as wave 3 actually wave 5, but then I can't see any clean A-B-C down from there.

Do you think WPL suits a wave pattern at all, and if so, how would you have it marked?

Cheers,
GP

[michael_selway]

For all those EW gurus out there, here's my current markup of WPL. Trying to decide if it's perhaps starting another wave 1 right now.

The way I see it, the unmarked wave starting in Feb 2005 could have been the wave 1, which would make what I have as wave 3 actually wave 5, but then I can't see any clean A-B-C down from there.

Do you think WPL suits a wave pattern at all, and if so, how would you have it marked?

Cheers,
GP

they keep increasing the 2008 forecast, maybe something good for the future

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 231.5 295.0 341.0
DPS 93.0 139.0 148.0 220.0

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 243.0 272.0 294.0
DPS 93.0 141.5 146.5 187.0

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 226.0 260.0 249.7
DPS 93.0 140.0 146.5 187.0

thx

MS

[Captain G]

Hi All, I don't understand why the SP has constantly been falling over the past week or so, while the oil price has been on the up?? Is it because WPL has been viewed as over priced etc ??
Cheers, Capt.

[michael_selway]

Hi All, I don't understand why the SP has constantly been falling over the past week or so, while the oil price has been on the up?? Is it because WPL has been viewed as over priced etc ??
Cheers, Capt.

yeah i little bit overpriced

should be around forward terminal PE of 10, so around $32.00+

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 233.4 316.5 315.0
DPS 93.0 135.0 169.0 201.1

thx

MS

[Nick Radge]

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/images/tc/61844.png

BOTTOM LINE
2/8:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD
7/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
2/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 4 secs)
The advance we were watching as at the last review terminated within a few days of that update. The corrective decline continues and a break down through $40.00 is highly probable. As you can see on this chart, the support area at $38.00 is significant. A break through that zone is disastrous. The evidence is mounting on various fronts now that we will indeed give that zone a solid nuzzle and if we do break lower the target price is $27.00. Just to confirm that's not a misprint, $27.00. Obviously that's a difficult statement to comprehend, especially since Oil is bullish and WPL was only recently at $50.00. But let me also point out that it was less than 12-months ago that this very stock was at $27.00 and 24-months ago it was sub-$18.00.
7/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 32 secs)
The stock is tracing out the expected path discussed about a month ago. At that time we were looking for further weakness followed by a bounce. That bounce is now upon us and is in the general area where a reversal of price should be expected. An aggressive trader could sell on a breach of Thursdays low and place a stop above today's high. I would expect a move back to where we have just come from, but again, any increase in momentum may be enough to slide through there. Those lows at $38.00 will be a significant challenge because they have acted as support back in February/March as well. Bearish.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
2/8:
Wave-B is in place and wave-C is now unfolding. The appearance of the head & shoulders (H&S) top is not a surprise and is common place within the realms of Elliott Wave analysis. H&S tops are a classic pattern that has been one of the only technical patterns that have been accepted by the academics. The neckline runs though $38.00 and will now be a major point of focus for many a technician. The two serious tests of that level, 16 February and 14 June, both showed very strong reactive tendencies so a third test will represent a significant point of "make or break". Ideally we should see this wave-C trace out in a 5-wave pattern but as yet that doesn't seem to be showing itself. One can only be a seller of rallies at present.
7/7:
The clear 5-wave decline into the mid-June lows makes that low a clear wave-A or -1 of a larger decline yet to unfold. The strength since has resolved itself in 3-waves clearly creating a corrective wave-B or -2. A move back through $43.20 will confirm this strength as a correction and invalidate any case for a new 5-wave structure higher. We have not quite hit the sell zone as outlined within the strategy paper, but one could certainly look to use any swing lower from here as confirmation that a larger decline may start to unfold. The risk/reward on such an aggressive entry would certainly make it worthwhile.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

[TjamesX]

BOTTOM LINE
2/8:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD
7/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
2/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 4 secs)
The advance we were watching as at the last review terminated within a few days of that update. The corrective decline continues and a break down through $40.00 is highly probable. As you can see on this chart, the support area at $38.00 is significant. A break through that zone is disastrous. The evidence is mounting on various fronts now that we will indeed give that zone a solid nuzzle and if we do break lower the target price is $27.00. Just to confirm that's not a misprint, $27.00. Obviously that's a difficult statement to comprehend, especially since Oil is bullish and WPL was only recently at $50.00. But let me also point out that it was less than 12-months ago that this very stock was at $27.00 and 24-months ago it was sub-$18.00.
7/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 32 secs)
The stock is tracing out the expected path discussed about a month ago. At that time we were looking for further weakness followed by a bounce. That bounce is now upon us and is in the general area where a reversal of price should be expected. An aggressive trader could sell on a breach of Thursdays low and place a stop above today's high. I would expect a move back to where we have just come from, but again, any increase in momentum may be enough to slide through there. Those lows at $38.00 will be a significant challenge because they have acted as support back in February/March as well. Bearish.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
2/8:
Wave-B is in place and wave-C is now unfolding. The appearance of the head & shoulders (H&S) top is not a surprise and is common place within the realms of Elliott Wave analysis. H&S tops are a classic pattern that has been one of the only technical patterns that have been accepted by the academics. The neckline runs though $38.00 and will now be a major point of focus for many a technician. The two serious tests of that level, 16 February and 14 June, both showed very strong reactive tendencies so a third test will represent a significant point of "make or break". Ideally we should see this wave-C trace out in a 5-wave pattern but as yet that doesn't seem to be showing itself. One can only be a seller of rallies at present.
7/7:
The clear 5-wave decline into the mid-June lows makes that low a clear wave-A or -1 of a larger decline yet to unfold. The strength since has resolved itself in 3-waves clearly creating a corrective wave-B or -2. A move back through $43.20 will confirm this strength as a correction and invalidate any case for a new 5-wave structure higher. We have not quite hit the sell zone as outlined within the strategy paper, but one could certainly look to use any swing lower from here as confirmation that a larger decline may start to unfold. The risk/reward on such an aggressive entry would certainly make it worthwhile.

Wow that is a big call.....

I'm not a chartist - I look more to fundamentals. Woodside (unlike a lot of other aussie oil and gas co's) has a lot of projects coming on stream in the next few years - so they won't need to find a lot in the future to impress. Gas, LNG, Oil - they've got it all. All they need is for the prices to stay high. Eventhough Chinguetti has had problems the market has already wiped the total value of this resource from its share price.

I have bought into them recently (admittedly a bit early) as a hedge against oil prices continuing to go up and general supply demand tightness in liquified energy through the next 10 years.

My humble prediction based on fundamentals - price will not breach $40 and will rebound towards $50 in the medium term. If oil continues above $70 for the next 12 months, WPL will head towards $60 as more people realise the quality of their assets (barring any major market wide collapse).

However if in the short medium term it does proceed as you suggest, it will not be the first time technicals have triumphed over fundamentals. long long term I reckon WPL is a goer for those who think oil aint coming back down.

See where it goes.... :confused:

TJ

[Knobby22]

Wow that is a big call.....

I'm not a chartist - I look more to fundamentals. Woodside (unlike a lot of other aussie oil and gas co's) has a lot of projects coming on stream in the next few years - so they won't need to find a lot in the future to impress. Gas, LNG, Oil - they've got it all. All they need is for the prices to stay high. Eventhough Chinguetti has had problems the market has already wiped the total value of this resource from its share price.

I have bought into them recently (admittedly a bit early) as a hedge against oil prices continuing to go up and general supply demand tightness in liquified energy through the next 10 years.

My humble prediction based on fundamentals - price will not breach $40 and will rebound towards $50 in the medium term. If oil continues above $70 for the next 12 months, WPL will head towards $60 as more people realise the quality of their assets (barring any major market wide collapse).

However if in the short medium term it does proceed as you suggest, it will not be the first time technicals have triumphed over fundamentals. long long term I reckon WPL is a goer for those who think oil aint coming back down.

See where it goes.... :confused:

TJ

It's fallen due to the Mauritius downgrade. Long term though, a safe hold. It has to rise as long as oil doesn't fall heavily. I doubt it will, though there is room for a 10% oil price drop.

[michael_selway]

yeah i little bit overpriced

should be around forward terminal PE of 10, so around $32.00+

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 233.4 316.5 315.0
DPS 93.0 135.0 169.0 201.1

thx

MS

Actually I should rephrase

When a compnay has limited growth left (WPL from 2007-2008 onwards), one should also look at sustained terminal dividends (grossed up even), not only EPS and terminal PE of 10.

So currently Risk Free Bank Interest is 6% pa (before tax), so thats yrou benchmark return.

So in 2008, WPL can pay about $2 per share dividend so 2/0.06 = $33

However if grossed up, ie before tax dividend is 2/0.7 = $2.86 per share

So $2.86/0.06 = $48 = absolute max anyone would be willing to pay now (in a risk free world eg no possibility of SARS no Terror)

But obviously there are risks, like higher/lower oil prices, production problems, external risks etc

so $35-40 is a good HOLD price i guess

thx

MS

[Knobby22]

Actually I should rephrase

When a compnay has limited growth left (WPL from 2007-2008 onwards), one should also look at sustained terminal dividends (grossed up even), not only EPS and terminal PE of 10.

So currently Risk Free Bank Interest is 6% pa (before tax), so thats yrou benchmark return.

So in 2008, WPL can pay about $2 per share dividend so 2/0.06 = $33

However if grossed up, ie before tax dividend is 2/0.7 = $2.86 per share

So $2.86/0.06 = $48 = absolute max anyone would be willing to pay now (in a risk free world eg no possibility of SARS no Terror)

But obviously there are risks, like higher/lower oil prices, production problems, external risks etc

so $35-40 is a good HOLD price i guess

thx

MS

Michael

You are treating WPL as Woolworths!
What about blue sky and the very important point that we may have reached peak oil?
Ignoring the peak oil scenario blue sky includes some of the exploration rights they have and are taking including the Libyan fields which could be big.

[nizar]

Agree with Knobby on this one

The big oil companies with the most reserves are best to hold right now and for the forseeable future...

WPL with 1.3billion barrels of oil equivalent is looking good

Chinguetti should add 30% to the bottom line and then you have have Tiof, and im also expecting price of natural gas to strengthen somewhat looking at the hot summer in the US at the moment

And look at chart - downside from here is very limited - the big boys never let WPL fall below $40

[pacer]

Big head and shoulders, hit below $40 look to fall to $38 at least, if not then $39 and a continue up to $45......too much new oils being found though....shale stuff anyway....the US has hidden untapped reserves...trust me....500 years worth but at what cost to the environment!!!!!!!!

find new technology in power and buy suziki etc....motorcycles are the way to go...especialy scooters....gonna get on myself.

[Nick Radge]

...the big boys never let WPL fall below $40

The big boys must still be out to lunch..$38.37 lows. It'll need a move back above $40.05 to get back to neutral territory again and above $47.05 to get bulled up.

[michael_selway]

Big head and shoulders, hit below $40 look to fall to $38 at least, if not then $39 and a continue up to $45......too much new oils being found though....shale stuff anyway....the US has hidden untapped reserves...trust me....500 years worth but at what cost to the environment!!!!!!!!

find new technology in power and buy suziki etc....motorcycles are the way to go...especialy scooters....gonna get on myself.

500 years of reserves?

wow thats heaps!

where did u get that from?

thx

MS

[WaySolid]

Even the Saudi Oil minister only says don't worry be happy for the next 50 years. I consider him one of the worlds most dangerous people presently.

500 years supply, ok great.

Recently saw that Australia had enough oil to supply our present needs, but we don't have any refining capacity which would be a particulary apt Australian story I thought.

Haven't been following WPL since I retired from trading equities but it would have to be one of my bottom drawer stocks if the share market was to be closed for 10 years starting tomorrow.

[pacer]

Well I was right again!....and again......

Graph looks a little sick, but with a little up trend starting...lets see how we go......

And Nizar........stop hiding in the bushes......lol

[pacer]

Agree with Knobby on this one

The big oil companies with the most reserves are best to hold right now and for the forseeable future...

WPL with 1.3billion barrels of oil equivalent is looking good

Chinguetti should add 30% to the bottom line and then you have have Tiof, and im also expecting price of natural gas to strengthen somewhat looking at the hot summer in the US at the moment

And look at chart - downside from here is very limited - the big boys never let WPL fall below $40


Haha....learn the game son

[pacer]

:eek7: :banghead: :eek:

MY MATE NEEDS SERIOUS HELP....CAN ANYONE DO A CHART ANALYSIS RIGHT NOW...EVEN A BASIC ONE......

I recon it has just gone below the small up trend lows, and also the two previous big tops, so would probably fall further...not looking good for him!

It is all very iffy and ugly on the chart to me and my limited knowledge of charting in the short term. (looking at 1 year graph here)

News on oil looks to be very bearish too with noone taking any notice of the cuts in production, to increase prices......

I like the guy, but he is in to deep for his own good again, and if he looses another 20c on the sp he will have lost a bucket load.......and NO, it is not me pretending to be the story teller.......I realy want this guy to make, not break, before he learns some real lessons...he's also my mechanic, and has become a good mate over the last few weeks.....we met here on ASF first though and found out we live close by...well actualy we met 2 years ago...he remembers me and my old fj45 troop carrier, when I broke down...does mobile mechanical around town.

Anyway if it falls his wife is gonna kill him, because she wants a new couch for XMAS and he's done almost all the doh on going long CFDs 3 days ago....I tried to give the hint to take the loss after the first day but, it diddn't sink in....I hate to TELL people what to do, just give some advice....it's not my money and if I was to say "do this" and it went the other way I would become the JUDAS.......

Baisicaly...I think he will he fall on his sword....rose back a little in aftermarket trade but I don't hold any high hopes at this stage.......even told him to get a buddah and some joss sticks.....maybe even YOGI can help here........definitely not my type of graph to jump onto.....and getting volatile....only just started showing him the baisics too....double tops and trends etc.........

HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....

I'm doing ok....3k profit in the last 13 days!

[kennas]

Pacer, oil is short term ordinary. Anyone holding needs a medium to long term view. If I needed cash short term, or to invest elsewhere, I probably wouldn't have it in a pure oil company atm. Oil inventories are up and even the geopolitical issues and weather that normally support oil (Middle East, hurricane season) have not eventuated.

Having said that, it could only take one major event for oil to hit bottom and rise again taking WPL with it. But who can predict the timing of that? Perhaps the only thing guaranteed is winter coming on in Nth USA which will consume a bit of heating oil. But, driving season will be over....

WPL on the chart looks unhealthy. Lower highs, lower lows, resistance at $40.00 will be hard to break now, and after $36.00, next target is $34.00 ish....On a pure chart play there's no way I would buy this right now, but if I had a long term investment view I'd hold. WPL is a big quality company, who is on many model portfolio lists. I believe it could be a takeover target as well, and at these lower prices will be a tasty morsel for a major player, if the gov allow it.

I am not financial advisor so I can not tell your mate what HE should do, but if I needed money tomorrow for something critical, like food or beer, I'd cash in and wait for the sun to start shining on oil and WPL once again.

[pacer]

Awesome Ken......baisicaly summed up my view...will pass that on rightaway to my mate...and no , it is not me, and will keep the privacy intact!......thanks again....you are a legend!.....and luv all who reply!

[rederob]

kennas
Short term the verdict is "guilty".
WPL has no immediate features that can redeem it.
We are a long way off the northern winter, so US consumption will not kick in for a few months at best.
My personal view is that CFDs are for full timers with a good idea of risk/reward and a fast trigger finger if stops are not part of your trading regime.
I fully expect oil to fall below $55 and possibly near the $50 mark before heading north again.
OPEC will ensure they take off the table enough oil in the medium term to get prices up around $60 again, which is what oil companies need now to match production with exploration success.

pacer
Watch carefully the overnight price of crude.
If it heads up, your mate should sell.
If it heads down, your mate should sell.
Can I be any clearer?
I suggest your mate not re-enter WPL until oil has zipped past $65 again, and that will not be any time soon.
For your info, I hold 1500 WPL shares, so I have a vested interest in the share price going up.
My advice to your mate is based on self preservation.

[nizar]

Well I was right again!....and again......

Graph looks a little sick, but with a little up trend starting...lets see how we go......

And Nizar........stop hiding in the bushes......lol

Hi Pacer,

My observation was based on the fact that it had bounced off $40 several times in the past.

I didnt know the direction of the oil price at the time of my post, sorry.

If u took my post as advice and acted on it - well then u need to learn the game, son.

I dont hold this stock and never have - i have no interest in whether it goes up or down.

[pacer]

Thanks for your timely replies....truley awesome....sorry nizar but the gut feeling and the graph was my punt on the last, POSTS...GOD i FEEL BAD BAGGIG MY MATES HERE,,,don't realy mean to be a DORK!..........posts are ADHD blurbs realy , to keep me entertained....



Will call my matE and get him to log on to help him get that new lounge SUITE for the missus....MAYBE HE WILL EVEN OWN UP AND GIVE YOU THE FULL HISTORY TO HELP OTHERS THAT HAVE KILLED IT BY GAMBLING!!!!!!!!!

[Ken]

at what price would woodside be a buy....

$37?

i would be looking at aquiring 150 units.

[kennas]

at what price would woodside be a buy....

$37?

i would be looking at aquiring 150 units.

Ken, depends how things shape up over the coming weeks. There's a number of scenarios that could pan out.

I'd be waiting to see if it heads back to $36 and be sure that it doesn't go through it, which would spell trouble. On the other hand if POI goes up and WPL heads up through $40.00, then retests $40 and goes higher, then perhaps $36 was the bottom....It's been on a downward trajectory since mid April and until it goes sideways for a while, develops a solid base, or breaks through about $42, then I would be staying on the sidelines.

[pacer]

Mate baled out today...thanks all....has enuf left to buy a couch but want's to carry on...:banghead:.....well I did warn him it is a tough game to play!


Never play the oil stocks....NEO learnt me a lesson....lo l:2twocents

[pacer]

[QUOTE=rederob]kennas
Short term the verdict is

Punting on a stock being so low, THAT YOU BUY IT, IS NOT SENSIBLE,
:banghead:

[legs]

Last July i met some surveyors out back of Tanami desert. They told me they were surveying for a wider a bigger road so WPL can access enough oil to supply the world for two years!

[Out Too Soon]

Ken, depends how things shape up over the coming weeks. There's a number of scenarios that could pan out.

I'd be waiting to see if it heads back to $36 and be sure that it doesn't go through it, which would spell trouble. On the other hand if POI goes up and WPL heads up through $40.00, then retests $40 and goes higher, then perhaps $36 was the bottom....It's been on a downward trajectory since mid April and until it goes sideways for a while, develops a solid base, or breaks through about $42, then I would be staying on the sidelines.

Well how things change, WPL is back down almost to $36, petrol is just over a dollar (in Townsville) & we consider that cheap :o . They've had some well publicised setbacks (temporary), so is woodside a good buy???
I remember last time it headed north from $35 to $40 & kicked myself because I'd been about to buy. Will I hesitate too long this time? (probably)

[kennas]

Well how things change, WPL is back down almost to $36, petrol is just over a dollar (in Townsville) & we consider that cheap :o . They've had some well publicised setbacks (temporary), so is woodside a good buy???
I remember last time it headed north from $35 to $40 & kicked myself because I'd been about to buy. Will I hesitate too long this time? (probably)
Well, in regard to the discussion we were having OTS, things didn't really change. WPL has gone the direction it was heading back then. Down. It made a couple of attempts to get back over $38.00 but the negative sentiment towards it has pushed it lower with justification after the news yesterday. Now, if it really breaks $36.00, well, :eek: :eek: it's looking disasterous. I wouldn't be holding it until I saw it bounce off this level and was heading back to $40.00. Then, there is a mountain of resistance there. Really needs a masive change in fortunes short term to be re rated. Perhaps rumours of BHP taking it over now will work? Or maybe BPT can take it over? he he.

[kennas]

Another view from Criterian out of the Australian:

Slippery choice
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
November 17, 2006

Woodside Petroleum (WPL) $36.28

AN (almost) sure-fire investment tactic is to pick up a proven blue-chip performer when sentiment towards the stock has dipped temporarily. The tricky part is working out the "temporary" bit, but we're game to suggest there's now a rare opportunity to pick up Woodside, our premier oil and gas producer, during such a crisis of confidence.

Woodside has retreated from its record high of $49.80 in mid-April and from above $40 over the past month - the result of the easing oil price, production hiccups and cost blowouts.

At yesterday's investor love-in in Sydney, management broke the news that calendar 2006 production would be 67-68 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe), around 6 per cent down from the (already revised) 72mboe indicated back in July.

Culprits are "technical issues" which will delay production from the Victorian Otway gas joint venture for nine months, a shutdown at Enfield off Western Australia and disappointing production from the Chinguetti well off Mauritania.

That's all bad news, but not entirely out of the blue in that Woodside earlier flagged it would struggle to match full-year forecasts, despite record September-quarter production of 19.1mboe. Woodside chief Don Voelte yesterday assured investors that 2007 output would bounce back to 75-80mboe "with 2008 better than 2007".

In the longer term, Woodside's array of growth projects - such as its $6-10 billion Pluto LNG project - promise strong future revenues. Woodside expects to be a 100mboe producer by 2010, about 70 per cent of which is from existing or committed production. In 2011, output is targeted at 140mboe, but half is speculative in that it's from production opportunities or "risked exploration".

At around $US58 a barrel, the world oil price is well off the record $US78.40 reached in July. Our safest prediction on oil prices is they'll remain unpredictable but Fat Prophets' more definitive view is there's looming supply pressures which will push the price up again.

On the fund manager's reckoning, American influence in the Middle East has been emasculated by the Democrats storming Capitol Hill. Even if the US doesn't pull out of Iraq, there are knock-on effects such as opponents of Saudi Arabia's US-backed royal family becoming more emboldened.

We don't think investors should be overwhelmed by their short-term (albeit legitimate) concerns about Woodside. In Voelte's words: "We should have done things better (in 2006) though we did - and still do - many things really well." BUY.

[Knobby22]

Well if it gets to $32, I will buy with my ears pinned back.

[kennas]

Well if it gets to $32, I will buy with my ears pinned back.
I'll be looking at it too knobby, but only when I see a bounce. There might be a very good opportunity to pick this up soon. If you were a very long term investor, then even now looks enticing I suppose.

[Kauri]

The $35 mark looks interesting for me, if it gets there and keeps falling then around $30..

[nizar]

The $35 mark looks interesting for me, if it gets there and keeps falling then around $30..


.....and then around $25..

[Kauri]

.....and then around $25..

Nizar..

Hi... Much below $30 and I would lose interest.

[kennas]

Ouch, this must be killing long term holders, of whom there would be many out there. This has been a staple of the 'blue chip' resource companies for quite a while. Breaking $36.00 now. If it closes below it's in deap do do IMO. As I've said before though, this could be ripe for a big player to pick up (or even a small one now). Instos must be wondering whether to top up on this now. Must be getting into oversold territory soon.

[Out Too Soon]

Well, probably foolish but I was impatient & bought in & $36.50 after perusing Criterion etc. If it gets down to $32 though Í'll put everything on it, shirt off my back etc. Oh! not wearing shirt, in sunny Townsville. :D

[Ken]

bhp take over WPL, takeover STO, takeover RIO tinto, take over, ZFX, and take over Cooper Energy aswell....

bHP super combo stock...

[Out Too Soon]

Well, probably foolish but I was impatient & bought in & $36.50 after perusing Criterion etc. If it gets down to $32 though Í'll put everything on it, shirt off my back etc. Oh! not wearing shirt, in sunny Townsville. :D

That should have read $35.60 not $36.50, so it's not a blunder just yet. Jsut a porbelm wtih dyslexai. :rolleyes:

[3 veiws of a secret]

I was kicking myself why I bought big into CTX (a few days ago),when WPL was hitting (most recent) rock bottom prices .....But now I brace myself ,when I hear the barrel of oil is DOWN in the US. No doubt long term investors in WPL must of picked this share when it was still $9~$14 years ago....they're still smiling but I would'nt be suprised to see oil hitting US$80 soon.

[The Mint Man]

Hey people.
Im sure you will be interested in this considering this is the WPL thread.
Ali Moore speaks with Don Voelte (lateline business)
Windows media (broadband): http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200611/r116163_367279.asx
Transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200611/s1790668.htm
For real player go to transcript page, ditto for dial up users

Cheers

[Ken]

how sweet are the dividend forecast looking for woodside. projected earnings per share 329 cent.

where is the support level for woodside?

i am considering buying in if they reach $34

companies like these dont stop exploration...

[nizar]

how sweet are the dividend forecast looking for woodside. projected earnings per share 329 cent.

where is the support level for woodside?

i am considering buying in if they reach $34

companies like these dont stop exploration...

Ken im kinda disappointed to read a post from you without a price target.

Wats your target on this one? $200? :D

[michael_selway]

Ken im kinda disappointed to read a post from you without a price target.

Wats your target on this one? $200? :D

Hehe, but whats the POO assumtion for that price target?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2009
EPS 158.4 222.0 297.6 359.8
DPS 93.0 134.0 154.0 174.2

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 222.0 16.4 40.2%
Year Ending 30-12-07 297.6 12.2 34.1%

thx

MS

[nizar]

MS obviously you didnt get the joke.
Nevermind ;)

[Kauri]

May soon be cooking on gas

[Ken]

hehe

i am in the green.

wpl. $200 in 50 years like that...

[56gsa]

agree with others - on 4 year trend lines and 1 year support/resistance this really does look like its bottomed... ST resistance at $38.50 to $38.80 and then more significant resistance at $40.50, but in not too distant future i think will test all time highs...

never bought this but considering it now for LT particularly for natural gas exposure...

[kennas]

Agree above that this looks like it might be turning, but not confirmed IMO. Needs to break $40 to really be cooking again. Recent higher lows and seemingly out of the downtrend since April is promising. Will be interesting to watch if it gets to about the green circle for what I would probably call a potential breakout. (not holding)

[Dutchy3]

35.50 needs to hold big time for WPL else lower prices are in its future. Reasonable bounces through 36.00 in the past suggest that indeed this might be the case, coupled with reasonable volume increases at the time.

However the last three days of trading + the successive increases in volume on the run up to Friday are not positive.

I have a LONG option position (MARCH 07) so looking for a positive day in the next two weeks (max) else I might have to STOP and reverse.

[Gundini]

Hope you are right Dutchy, holding this one as well. Has been a scary couple of days :eek:

US Crude Futures:

Feb $56.25
Mar $57.36
Apr $58.32

So it appears the big sell off has peated for the moment
(Holding Rossary Beads as I say this)

Also I take heart from OPEC who have stated they would like to keep the oil price around $60. We may here of the taps being turned off at their next meeting. I have been all over WPL's website and all appears on track there. Just have to ride out the storm I think... :)

[Dutchy3]

Start of a bounce today? ...

[imaginator]

WPL at 36.07, do u think its the bottom?

Was at 36.09 this morning, then it suddenly shot to 36.27, now 36.10

[theasxgorilla]

$36 is a significant support level.

My interpretation of WPL at the moment is that it's formed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern. If it retraces the amount from the head to the neckline then it will retrace to around $30 which will be about 50% of the previous major range from $10 to $50.

With the news about some of WPLs financial woes and with the oil price not there to prop/cover them up, it would not surprise me if WPL keeps heading lower in the short to medium term.

[imaginator]

It dropped to 35.59 today, do u think it has breached resistance? Going any lower? I wonder if this is good to short. thanks

[kennas]

$36 is a significant support level.

My interpretation of WPL at the moment is that it's formed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern. If it retraces the amount from the head to the neckline then it will retrace to around $30 which will be about 50% of the previous major range from $10 to $50.

With the news about some of WPLs financial woes and with the oil price not there to prop/cover them up, it would not surprise me if WPL keeps heading lower in the short to medium term.
Agree, and yes, perhaps a shorting opportunity. Target on that is around $30 ish.

As always though, markets are a fickle thing. Hugo's decision might have more repercussions, or there might be a disruption in the Mid East tonight....Also, it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back, allbeit temporarily....

[GreatPig]

it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back
And in September.

GP

[theasxgorilla]

Agree, and yes, perhaps a shorting opportunity. Target on that is around $30 ish.

As always though, markets are a fickle thing. Hugo's decision might have more repercussions, or there might be a disruption in the Mid East tonight....Also, it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back, allbeit temporarily....

Yes. The Daily Reckoning guys wrote a good blog y'day about what they thought could be the behaviour of someone like Chavez during a weakening of the oil price.

The thing to consider is that the oil price is probably correcting, but over the mid-to-long term it is up trending. Any shorting of a big oil production/exploration company like WPL (financial screw-ups aside) would need to be quite a cunning trade.

If I was going to short it I'd want to see a convincing weekly close (strong volume, strong bar) below $36. You might get 10% gross out the trade as it finds its way down to $30 and the bottom of the channel.

10% and a dividend or two from an ASX20 stock is okay but the thought of shorting anything on the ASX in this market makes me nervous :)

[Bush Trader]

A list of broker sentiments on the stock may give some insight into why the continued bounce back. Not that I trust Brokers, however many investors rely on their sentiment heavily to make decisions. An attractive percieved 16% ave target return is probably aiding the support. Bad production news or erosion of the Oil price supports are more likely erode sentiment in my opinion and thus a Broker Re-rate. Note JP Morgan are the only ones that are short the stock.

Information Source: FN Arena


WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED
Previous Closing Price $36.13
Average Target Price $42.21 16.8% upside
Sentiment Indicator(1 = Highest Rating, -1 = Lowest Rating) 0.6
Recommendation Overview
Broker Date Rating Recommendation Target Price % to Reach Target


Aspect Huntley 05-Jan-07 3 Hold - -
Update database.

Credit Suisse 01-Dec-06 1 Outperform $45.00 24.6%
Target $45.00 (was $49.00). The broker has cut its oil price forecasts, resulting in changes to its earnings estimates for the company. In 2007 and 2008 its profit forecasts are down 4% to $1,815m and $3,102m.
UBS 22-Nov-06 1 Buy 1 $44.64 23.6%
The broker notes the company's exploration program for 2007 offers significant potential, with Libya in particular representing upside of as much as $4.00 per share if drilling produces positive results. The broker continues to see the stock as offering long-term value. Valuation is $30.67.

SB Citigroup 20-Nov-06 1 Upgrade to Buy from Hold, Medium Risk $43.00 19.0%
Target $43.00 (was $43.20). The broker notes given its recent changes to forecasts the latest update on production has meant only minor changes to estimates. The upgrade in its rating follows recent price weakness, while it continues to see value in the stock longer-term.

Merrill Lynch 17-Nov-06 3 Neutral, Low Risk - -
The broker has been waiting for production downgrades, and got them. Problems at Chinguetti, for one, have been known for some time. The broker has reduced earnings by 5%, 21% and 13% in 2006-08. LNG rollover pricing looks more optimistic however, but the broker warns a premium for growth is built into the WPL price that may be under threat given the production problems in oil.

JP Morgan 17-Nov-06 3 Neutral $35.50 - 1.7%
Production downgrades dropped production to levels even below the broker's low-marker forecasts. This results in a 4% drop in valuation. Target falls from $37.00 to $35.50.

ABN Amro 17-Nov-06 3 Hold $37.80 4.6%
Target $37.80 (was $39.00) The broker notes the company's investor day confirmed downgrades to production in 2006 and 2007 and reserves at Chinguetti and Enfield. It also notes production guidance for FY08 now appears too high, so the overall impact is a cut in forecasts, with earnings in 2006 down 5% to $1,397.3m and 2007 by 20% to $1,651m.

Macquarie 17-Nov-06 1 Outperform $42.50 17.6%
Target falls from $47.50 to $42.50 on production downgrades. The broker notes WPL was already trading at a decent premium to valuation, and that this last downgrade might hurt market sentiment in the short term. However, the broker believes in the bigger picture, and is retaining Outperform.

Deutsche Bank 17-Nov-06 1 Buy $47.00 30.1%
Don't panic, says the broker. Yes - the production downgrades are a disappointment, but not the end of the world. On a longer term view, WPL's attraction lies in the global LNG "mega-trend". The broker has reduced 2007 earnings by 21.5%. Target falls from $48.20 to $47.00. But, given above, the broker suggests WPL is "still a BUY".

[Pager]

I topped up my holding today at $35, taking the long term view on this stock, dividend yeild is starting to make it attractive as well.

IMO wont take much to push oil up above $60 in the not too distant future, remember this time last year many were predicting Oil at over $100 :eek7: .

[scsl]

Agree, and yes, perhaps a shorting opportunity. Target on that is around $30 ish.

As always though, markets are a fickle thing. Hugo's decision might have more repercussions, or there might be a disruption in the Mid East tonight....Also, it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back, allbeit temporarily....
Yesterday's close of well below the $35.66 (ish) support level has been backed up today, with WPL down over 1%.

(Sorry, I just realised that my share prices could be different from what other people may see on their charts - because I'm looking at the WPL chart from CMC's MM program, which can have different data.)

Well, I've just gone short some WPL CFDs because of this clear break of support. Also, the crude oil price is looking technically weak - now at $53.15.

[MiningGuru]

I think we have seen the bottom for Woodside.

There has been strong support at above $35.

The RSI indicator is moving up on the chart. I think we see some strong buying support for this share soon as the intos move out of industrials with high PEs and into resources with very low PEs.

I think oil will start to move again as well.

It will re-test its highs of $49 in the not to distant future IMO.

[ice]

I'll grant you it's worked hard at hammering out a bottom but it hasn't confirmed the upside yet so it's very much in the balance imo.

Needs a solid push through 3780-ish sooner rather than later and to hold it at the close to gain a bit of momentum. Inability to do so will send all the wrong signals.
So far its reluctance to respond to rising oil is a bit like dragging a dog around the block. If it doesn't want to go for 'walkies' it's no fun for anyone.


ice

[chops_a_must]

I'll grant you it's worked hard at hammering out a bottom but it hasn't confirmed the upside yet so it's very much in the balance imo.

Needs a solid push through 3780-ish sooner rather than later and to hold it at the close to gain a bit of momentum. Inability to do so will send all the wrong signals.
So far its reluctance to respond to rising oil is a bit like dragging a dog around the block. If it doesn't want to go for 'walkies' it's no fun for anyone.


ice
WPL's chart still looks rather depressing and uninspiring. Going on a 9 month downtrend and this may have even seen a top for this run due to the lack of volume. Compare this to the OSH and AED charts which look incredibly bullish right now.

[Dr Doom]

Comparing WPL & OSH theres not much difference, percentage gain wise. OSH attracting takeover premium perhaps?. Is the issue of WPL being taken over dead & buried. If QAN can get the green light is anything & everything fair game for the equity funds or major oilers?.

[chops_a_must]

Comparing WPL & OSH theres not much difference, percentage gain wise.
I was talking about MACD etc.

[MiningGuru]

Starting to move.

I think that it has bottomed, and will again re-test old highs.

Up 62c so far.

Should push into the $40s soon

[pacer]

I just went long at $37.82, 2000 shares....could have jumped out for a day trade on that rise but I am thinking on a 2 week outlook.....all is looking good for this one me thinks....

oil up, cold snap in the US, more bombs in Iraq.....it's all adding up...

[>Apocalypto<]

I just went long at $37.82, 2000 shares....could have jumped out for a day trade on that rise but I am thinking on a 2 week outlook.....all is looking good for this one me thinks....

oil up, cold snap in the US, more bombs in Iraq.....it's all adding up...

Pacer,

i agree the externals look great!

I put i cfd contract on it today but i just could not bring myself to hold it,

call me dumb and whatever else people, but i just don't think i can have a really bullish opinion of wpl till it shows it can hold above $40 the last resistance level. ( my trend line)

but in other tid bits market depth is heavily in the buyers favor!

I am watching.............

[>Apocalypto<]

failing again

looks great for a short right now

[Dutchy3]

I believe I see WPL clearly now. This picture has taken 6 months to evolve and will resolve soon (2 - 6 weeks).

I'd be very circumspect to call this a short .... given its reaction of my blue line. At the same time this is not a buy.

For the next little while this stock will continue to wedge.

Ultimatley I believe this will resolve itself in favour of the BULL's .... interestingly I do have a long position is OSH as this does seem to be in advance of WPL at this point in time.

[chops_a_must]

Did anyone find it absolutely offensive and repulsive that the Woodside CEO did all his interviews today in front of didgeridoos?

[Knobby22]

Where were the reporters? (just kidding)

Woodside have the most pro-aboriginal policies of any Australian public company. There are many councils and states providing lip service but Woodside is doing its upmost to encourage the local aboriginals to get management positions in the company as well as aiding their education and deliberately creating jobs.

I have no problem with the aboriginals showing their support.

(OK indigenous peoples who we should thank at every public gathering, I so dislike lip service.)

[chops_a_must]

Where were the reporters? (just kidding)

Woodside have the most pro-aboriginal policies of any Australian public company. There are many councils and states providing lip service but Woodside is doing its upmost to encourage the local aboriginals to get management positions in the company as well as aiding their education and deliberately creating jobs.

I have no problem with the aboriginals showing their support.

(OK indigenous peoples who we should thank at every public gathering, I so dislike lip service.)
You are kidding me right? 'Cos I'm laughing about that! You do realise there have been protests in Freo each week about Woodside's illegal actions don't you?

http://mc2.vicnet.net.au/home/dampier/web/vandal.html

[billhill]

Hey i went to school with a few aboriginals who were heavily supported by woodside. A couple of them now work for the company. Good on woodside, its more then most other companies do.

[Knobby22]

You are kidding me right? 'Cos I'm laughing about that! You do realise there have been protests in Freo each week about Woodside's illegal actions don't you?

http://mc2.vicnet.net.au/home/dampier/web/vandal.html

They are not illegal. Government approval has been given.

The issues are very complex and involve three aboriginal communities.

[chops_a_must]

Hey i went to school with a few aboriginals who were heavily supported by woodside. A couple of them now work for the company. Good on woodside, its more then most other companies do.
Most companies don't destroy ancient art work either.

[Dutchy3]

Price and Volume action Thursday and Friday last week is significant.

WPL will see 4000 before 3650 again.

[reece55]

Price and Volume action Thursday and Friday last week is significant.

WPL will see 4000 before 3650 again.

Hi Dutchy

By the way, in most of the price reviews I have seen you have a look at, most of the time you are right on the mark...... Credit where credits due....

I am with you here..... I am very tempted to open a position here..... Oil is due for a recovery, financials for WPL were good (although interesting reserve quote!) and the price action is starting to look like that down trending action for the last 10 months may be coming to an end....

Keep watching this one...

Cheers

[kennas]

Have to agree. Some resistance at $39, that if broken would confirm up trend. Short term chart shows higher lows. Long term below has most resistance at $40.00 in resumption of up trend. Momentum up.

[Dutchy3]

Well

Got this one right ... I'm in cash

All Long positions closed out

[GRTRADER]

Any thoughts on woodside over the next 12 months?

When I was over in WA a year ago everyone seemed to be talking about them but their shares havent performed very well at all.

[Bluebeard]

Id also be interested to see what people think, ive never held it, but at these levels its now on my consideration list.

[Dutchy3]

I know I keep banging on about this .... WPL has just about exhausted its sellers ... All the trading since my last post has been strong ... when it passes 5000 in the next 12 months current prices are going to seem a bit ho hum

[kennas]

I know I keep banging on about this .... WPL has just about exhausted its sellers ... All the trading since my last post has been strong ... when it passes 5000 in the next 12 months current prices are going to seem a bit ho humLooks good chartwise Dutchy. Iran helping a bit. Is that $5000 dollars, or $50? LOL. As per my post above, I reckon it needs to crack $40 for uptrend to resume. Till then it's continued sideways and/or down. Fundamenatally where is the increase in sp going to come from? POI appreciation? Would have to look like cracking $100 again wouldn't it? Acquisition? Would have to find some pretty undervalued assets that brought surprises to the upside. Takeover? Maybe BHP will eventually buy them for around 50 bucks and then split off all their Oil into a new company??

[Smurf1976]

1. US inventory data suggests the US at least is consuming more oil than it is producing and importing. Given the size of the US market, odds are that inventories elsewhere aren't rising at a pace that would offset the US declines - so the world as a whole is burning faster than it is pumping. That's obviously bullish for oil prices.

2. The formation of a natural gas version of OPEC is the worst possible news for gas consumers. But Woodside's a significant producer and exporter of LNG so ought to benefit to the extent that the new cartel actually results in higher gas prices.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I went long today and so did many others.

[michael_selway]

I went long today and so did many others.

**** what other good oilers out there?

thx

MS

WPL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 212.4 205.0 276.0 241.8
DPS 126.0 124.3 154.8 164.0

[It's Snake Pliskin]

**** what other good oilers out there?

thx

MS

WPL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 212.4 205.0 276.0 241.8
DPS 126.0 124.3 154.8 164.0
:confused:

[Joe Blow]

**** what other good oilers out there?

Michael, perhaps this question is better suited to a general oil thread. Lets try and keep the discussion here focussed on WPL.


I went long today and so did many others.

Snake, would appreciate some reasons for your decision.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Michael, perhaps this question is better suited to a general oil thread. Lets try and keep the discussion here focussed on WPL.



Snake, would appreciate some reasons for your decision.
Because it had a good early start to the day and volume was positive representing the trails of buyers and sellers communicating via their brokers.
It looks bullish Joe. :) But that is in my context - ramp disclaimer.
Cheers

[vishalt]

I'm going to buy WPL on a dip.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/3111/wplzoomgp1.jpg

[>Apocalypto<]

Michael, perhaps this question is better suited to a general oil thread. Lets try and keep the discussion here focussed on WPL.



Snake, would appreciate some reasons for your decision.

I went long yesterday Joe.

Reasons on a weekly it had good volume and it broke resistance looking like a break out that could follow though, unlike the last god know how many failed times he he he.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I'm going to buy WPL on a dip.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/3111/wplzoomgp1.jpg

Will the gap fill or not? That is the question.
I resisted the temptation to top up again today. I'll wait and see what happens over the next few days.

[vishalt]

hope so, $40 is a big test for WPL

[kennas]

Well done to those that went long not long ago on this. Resistance at $40, but looks like momentum will carry it through IMO.

Probably depends on how the Iran situation unfolds, but doesn't look great to me...

[toothfairy]

Will the gap fill or not? That is the question.
I resisted the temptation to top up again today. I'll wait and see what happens over the next few days.

Hi there,
I have seen the term "will the gap(s) fill or not " used in numerous places, some justified, some not. Can someone in the know please explain with reasons and proofs that this is really that important? Or just a saying, i.e. what are the chances of this or that if they are filled or not.
I can tell you why there are gaps, it is purely because our ASX is not a 24 hours trading plaform, and things do happen when we are sleeping; like war can start, oil prices can go up or down by a lot etc.
Thanks, and don't want to sound sceptical, just analytical!

Cheers

[kennas]

Well done to those that went long not long ago on this. Resistance at $40, but looks like momentum will carry it through IMO.

Probably depends on how the Iran situation unfolds, but doesn't look great to me...Still looks good to push though after some consolidation at 40 resistance.

[noirua]

I don't expect anyone cares, but anyway: I bought this stock under the name "Woodside Lakes Entrance oil " in 1967 and 1982, and sold out in 1997. That was 9 years too soon.

I believe Warren Buffett did say "hold for ever", in answer to a question put to him. A pity I wasn't listening.

Good Luck.

[vishalt]

yeah a pity you sold it that early really, but i think a lot of other people would have as well - like when the market crashes etc

[MiningGuru]

WPL has broken through above $40.

This was a resistance point and if it closes above this, it will be an indicator of a new upward trend.

I beleive this share will significantly push ahead over the next few weeks with a target of $50+

[TheAbyss]

WPL has broken through above $40.

This was a resistance point and if it closes above this, it will be an indicator of a new upward trend.

I beleive this share will significantly push ahead over the next few weeks with a target of $50+

Why $50?

I hold so am eager for good news guru. $50 would be fantastic. I figured WPL would need to increase their returns via LNG to get to the $50 area.

[Holdon]

I managed to get my overnight bid taken out at $40.10 this morning on a long CFD trade, I see breaking $40 as a good sign, and WPL has been oversold for some time IMO.

80c up as I type, and finding support.......:eek7:

[kennas]

It's holding OK. If it does maintain this position, it's a confirmed breakout from April 06 downtrend. Not to say it's in an uptrend now, could just go sideways for a while. Making another higher high and low, and I'd have to think again. Maybe I'm been a bit conservative.

[MiningGuru]

This share has pushed on strongly today to be above $41.

I beleiv the assets of the company and its LNG expasion in WA are significantly undervalued. The share has not done much over that past year and I think it will test its previous highs of around $50

[Smurf1976]

This share has pushed on strongly today to be above $41.

I beleiv the assets of the company and its LNG expasion in WA are significantly undervalued. The share has not done much over that past year and I think it will test its previous highs of around $50
Looking at the fundamentals, I think the market undervalues natural gas in general, especially that which is able to be sold as LNG. Many still seem to be thinking in terms of "cheap and abudant gas" which isn't really true anymore in the global market context.:2twocents

[Holdon]

i GOTTA PU THIS ON 'outstanding breakout alerts....It looks sooo good!

Not bad for a top 20 stock!


How often do you see that guys?

[Kauri]

Woodside mulls asset swap for Atlantic LNG

3rd May 2007, 10:15 WST

Woodside Petroleum may swap a stake in its proposed $10 billion Pluto liquefied natural gas project off northern WA for assets in the fastergrowing Atlantic market.

Chief executive Don Voelte said Woodside had received “very interesting offers” for a stake in Pluto and would decide by August whether to develop the project. Offers would not be considered until then, he said.
“Pluto would never get sold for cash, we would want something of great value in return for it,” Mr Voelte said.
“If Woodside is offered an opportunity that we believe is vastly superior than what we’ll give up with Pluto but works for another company, then we’ll consider that,” he said.
Global LNG demand may more than triple by the end of next decade, with consumption in Europe and North America overtaking demand in Asia by about 2015, according to a Wood Mackenzie Consultants estimate.
Assets in the so-called Atlantic Basin would give a bigger global reach to Woodside, which now counts on Asia for almost 90 per cent of total sales.
Trading a stake in Pluto for a share in a project or asset held by an Atlantic region LNG producer, such as BG Group, may make sense, said Frank Harris, co-head of global LNG at Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie.
“Woodside is the pre-eminent LNG player in the Pacific Basin and you’ve got BG in the Atlantic Basin,” Mr Harris said. “With those two companies there must be some interesting possibilities.”
French group Total, which last year bought a stake in Inpex Holdings’ Icthys LNG project off WA, was the other obvious candidate with its interests in the Middle East and Nigeria, he said.
Woodside’s board in December approved an initial $1.4 billion of spending on the 100 per cent-owned Pluto project and is due to give final approval for development by August, with a target of late 2010 to start deliveries to Japan. The project will triple the company’s LNG output.
Woodside may either swap a stake in Pluto for a share in a venture that supplies LNG to Europe and the US or develop its own project for the Atlantic market through exploration.
The Pluto project will have a capacity of 5 million to 6 million tonnes a year of LNG, costing between $6 billion and $10 billion, Woodside said in November. The company has deals to sell fuel from the project to Kansai Electric Power and Tokyo Gas, which are also negotiating to buy 5 per cent stakes in the venture while Woodside retains full control.
While Woodside may be interested in an asset swap, “those are hard deals to put together”, Mr Voelte said.
“At least until the final investment decision you should not expect anything but we have certainly catalogued what people have talked to us about, so that if we ever do turn that tap we can work on some existing ideas.”
ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest US refiner, last year started LNG production at a plant in Darwin, while Chevron, Inpex and BHP Billiton are among companies proposing to develop projects in Australia.
Woodside may also seek to enter the US and European LNG markets “through the drill-bit,” by exploration in countries such as Libya that may offer the potential for LNG supply to the both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, Mr Voelte said.
“We look at it from a drill-bit perspective and we look at it from an M&A perspective,” he said. “Clearly other people have the same aspiration that we have so the opportunities aren’t just sitting there for our taking, you have to develop them.”
ANGELA MACDONALD-SMITH

[Dutchy3]

From my TA perspective here's why I called exhausted sellers 6 weeks ago.

The black weeks, highlighted in red, should of signaled lower prices to come. There were 3 of them and they effectively all failed. Three is magic for me ... I'm always looking for a breakout of the 3rd go ... if a stock does then I go with it ... conversely if it fails then experience tells me it probably will not on a forth attempt either.

In the WPL case the bearish weeks failed to drive prices lower ... so they failed.

Now with a stock like WPL it rarely trades in a sideways band for too long so a move higher was on the cards ... just a matter of watching for the signals. The W/E 30/03/07 defeated, in one week, nearly 5 months of trading, this was the signal week for me ... and days in that week ...

Now we see the confirming break higher at the end of last week ... volumes not an issue as the 23M that traded on the W/E 30/03/07 stands out and will provide the bedrock for advances from here.

If not long already .... its not too late .... just ensure MM is adequate as the logical place for a STOP is 38.50ish, and now with entry prices around 42.00ish we ahve 10% risk on entry ...

[Holdon]

I took profits today ($2.78), even though I believe there may be a few more cents in it before a slight fall.

If WPL were to fall tomorrow I would be tempted to get back in for another day or two.

That was a nice ride for some Quick profits anyway.

:D

[kennas]

This looks like it'll run a little more to me. Maybe up to the next resistance around 46 to 47 bucks. Gone well since the break through 40. :)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

This looks like it'll run a little more to me. Maybe up to the next resistance around 46 to 47 bucks. Gone well since the break through 40. :)

Kennas,

I wasn't happy with the intent of today's buyers. I am happy to see it break 44 but it wasn't convincing enough to shake off sub 44 in too much of a hurry. I agree 46 plus will be realised and maybe we'll see 50ish by the end of year. MAYBE.:confused:

Just some thoughts.

[GreatPig]

Woodside looking like it's formed a small head and shoulders formation. Downside target somewhere around $41.

Cheers,
GP

[canaussieuck]

Woodside looking like it's formed a small head and shoulders formation. Downside target somewhere around $41.

Cheers,
GP

Yeah GP, this came up on one of my scans for shorts last nite...wasn't quite convinced of the setup though so i've got on watch...

Cheers,

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Yeah GP, this came up on one of my scans for shorts last nite...wasn't quite convinced of the setup though so i've got on watch...

Cheers,

Short?

Man you are game.

A short sell should have weakness in the background not just consolidation.

WPL has strenght in the background followed by some indecision. Hardly proof for a short.

Good luck.

[GreatPig]

Back up 3% again at the moment, bringing it back above the neckline of the head and shoulders.

Wonder if that means it's a failed H&S, or just a last attempt to get back up there...

GP

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Cup and handles don't mean much when these things come up.

'Woodside soars on talk of merger with BG Group'
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/woodside-soars-on-talk-of-merger-with-bg-group/2007/06/14/1181414460328.html

[mattyroo]

Woodside's problems on the Chinguetti field are ever increasing. Cannot even average 11000 bopd at the moment. A huge letdown on the intended 75000 bopd.

Initial plans were for an offload every 2 weeks, last offload was over 2 months ago.

Will be surprised if they are still there in 6 months.

[GREENS]

Woodside's problems on the Chinguetti field are ever increasing. Cannot even average 11000 bopd at the moment. A huge letdown on the intended 75000 bopd.

Initial plans were for an offload every 2 weeks, last offload was over 2 months ago.

Will be surprised if they are still there in 6 months.


Mattyroo where did you hear this from? Last I heard it was averaging around the 25000BOPD mark. Letdown is an understatement. This oil field has been a complete disaster and that is why all the prospects around it which have the potential for commercial development have not gone any further than the appraisal stage.

[mattyroo]

Mattyroo where did you hear this from? Last I heard it was averaging around the 25000BOPD mark. Letdown is an understatement. This oil field has been a complete disaster and that is why all the prospects around it which have the potential for commercial development have not gone any further than the appraisal stage.

I have a intimate knowledge of this project and know exactly how it is performong. If you want to know anything PM me.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Who feels like shorting WPL now? Today it is up again like a champion in blue boxing shorts.

[Lachlan6]

(WPL) looking solid at the moment with the recent break up through short term resistance. May find slight resistance at the $46.3-40 level being the 23.6% retracement from the all time highs to early this year's double bottom. RSI was painting a slightly worrying picture early with strong divergence however this has been countered with todays move through this trendline in the RSI. I bought this with CFD's at $41.75 and scaled in today again, as I reckon oil is the place to be in at the moment. Definently on track to retest old highs in my opinion.

[MiningGuru]

The Australian 20/6/07
ROYAL Dutch Shell is believed to be testing the political waters before launching another tilt at Woodside Petroleum, after rumours hit the market that the Anglo-Dutch oil giant has Woodside on its radar again.

In 2001, Treasurer Peter Costello cited national interest when he vetoed Shell's hostile $10 billion bid to take control of Woodside, in which it has a 34 per cent stake.

But with an election expected before year's end, Shell is believed to be considering trying again.

Shell might believe it can persuade Mr Costello to change his mind once the election is behind him, or win over a new treasurer in the form of Labor's Wayne Swan.

Woodside shares yesterday rose 90c, or 2 per cent, to a new 12-month high at $46.85. They have now rallied almost 10 per cent since speculation that Woodside was a target emerged from London late last week.

In early London trade last night, shares in Shell were trading up nearly 0.5 per cent on the back of the speculation, at 2012p.

Treasury in Canberra was understood last night not to have received any official approaches about Shell again testing the waters.

The Treasurer's office said the rumours, which gained strong traction in the trading session yesterday, were the first it had heard of the news.

Mr Costello holds ultimate control of the Foreign Investment Review Board, which rejected the initial approach by Shell to gain full control.

The Government would be keen to avoid any corporate scandal in the lead-up to the election, having already battled Telstra and the fallout over the collapsed Qantas private equity deal.

Its management of the economy is seen as the number one platform of the Government's bid for the election, meaning it would want a smooth campaign.

A Shell spokesman in London last night said it too had been made aware of the second-guessing which drove Woodside shares higher. "I have heard the rumours but we don't comment on merger and acquisition speculation," the spokesman said.

Since the first decision by the FIRB, Woodside has repaid the Government's faith by expanding the North West Shelf liquefied natural gas project, and it is also proposing to spend $10 billion on its Pluto LNG project offshore from WA.

The share market now values Woodside at almost $32 billion, more than three times Shell's 2001 offer.

A key driver for Shell would be securing for itself Woodside's rising LNG growth profile in a market in which Asian LNG demand is on the rise.

Shell's Asia-Pacific growth plans were crimped last year when Russia forced it to cede control of its Sakhalin-II LNG project on Sakhalin Island bordering the Pacific.

Mr Costello blocked Shell's bid because he was concerned that Shell might pursue gas projects offshore at the expense of domestic expansion.

UK broker Cazenove has speculated that BG (British Gas) Group might bid for Woodside with Shell's support.

Industry publication LNG Intelligence yesterday became the latest to report that Shell might be considering bidding for Woodside, following a Dow Jones report that the oil giant was planning a post-election bid.

"It (a Shell bid) is entirely logical," Morgan Stanley's oil analyst in Melbourne, Stuart Baker, told The Australian.

"It is the only proposition that makes any sense."

In the past Woodside has been touted as a target for China's CNOOC and global miner BHP Billiton.

[kennas]

Interesting chart. Well, to me anyway. :)

Wonder how it will go this time attacking all time highs around 50 bucks?

Big cup there. Is that an inverse H&S? :rolleyes:

I'm surprised this has remained independant.

[Kauri]

Hi Kennas,
I've been waiting for an opportunity to get in on WPL for a while as well... but fear I have confused myself with my count on it. :o ..
Despite oil reaching (recent??) all time highs, low US inventories et al, I for some reason am looking for a decline into a W(4) ??? :eek7:
Cheers
..........Kauri

[kennas]

Hi Kennas,
I've been waiting for an opportunity to get in on WPL for a while as well... but fear I have confused myself with my count on it. :o ..
Despite oil reaching (recent??) all time highs, low US inventories et al, I for some reason am looking for a decline into a W(4) ??? :eek7:
Cheers
..........KauriThanks Kauri. POO has to consolidate soon. Perhaps that'll coincide with a pullback? Unless the Frogs start WW4 with Iran I suppose....Show the chart to the budgie and see what he's got to say! :)

[Kauri]

Thanks Kauri. POO has to consolidate soon. Perhaps that'll coincide with a pullback? Unless the Frogs start WW4 with Iran I suppose....Show the chart to the budgie and see what he's got to say! :)

It's a tad early in the morning here in Perth for him to fire up but I asked his mate... two chirps and straight into the bath... mmm.. wonder if there is a message for me there??? :bath:
Cheers
...Kauri

[kerosam]

$50 could be a physcological barrier to hold... 'profit taking' tomorrow i think...

anyone following BHP & RIO? appears to be overbought (RSI)...

:2twocents

[Ferret]

6% drop today with no announcements.

Wonder if this is related to the story that BHP might sell its oil interests to fund the run at RIO? Perhaps the market is nervous that Woodside might be a buyer.

Ferret

[M34N]

6&#37; drop today with no announcements.

Wonder if this is related to the story that BHP might sell its oil interests to fund the run at RIO? Perhaps the market is nervous that Woodside might be a buyer.

Ferret

Possible. A lot of the resource stocks which performed well on Friday pulled back today, probably more profit taking than anything. US dollar rebounded a touch from record lows, pushing the price of oil down, in the short term there may be a pullback in WPL and other oil stocks, but I think if there's more bad news in the US economy, which has some important statistics coming out this week, it could push the commodity higher, and most likely, up across the $100US p/b price which so many have been saying for a while. All it takes is more volatility and anything can happen.

I'm personally predicting a bounce in oil up to $100US p/b, will most likely see traders try to push it higher to clear that psychological barrier. It'll most likely have to happen eventually.

[Kauri]

Woodside Petrleoum Limited....
on the weekly chart is starting to look interesting again...
Cheers
..........kauri

[Lucky_Country]

WPL seems too have support around $46.
Up yesterday on news that LNG will have a year on year growth of 7% worldwide.
DOW up 200 points, oil up, natural gas up, should see a rally in the sp through jan.
Production figures will be interesting in Jan with new production coming on stream maybe an increased dividend as well due too the sale of Mauitania assets.
All just speculation any thoughts ?

[Lucky_Country]

Looking stong today !
Completion of Mauritania assets today and the market seems too like that a bit of an underachieving asset.
LNG the future of WPL

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

WPL ... has a significant and positive time cycle in play now,
that should keep the rally going strong, until the end of the
first week, in 2008 .....

..... expecting further news (about finances???), around 03012008 ... :)

Happy New Year

paul

:)

=====

[Lucky_Country]

Good too see you have started coverage of WPL TP one of my favourite stocks over the next 5 years.
Pluto under constuction takeover speculation WPL could rocket anytime

[grace]

Good too see you have started coverage of WPL TP one of my favourite stocks over the next 5 years.
Pluto under constuction takeover speculation WPL could rocket anytime

Wasn't there a takeover attempt a long time ago.....and it was found not in the national interest...or something along those lines. Someone with more knowledge could you please advise...(I remember reading of this...) Can't provide the facts though....

[Lucky_Country]

Last takeover attempt was by Shell they now own 34 % of WPL.
Things changed are new government maybe a new Aus bidder maybe BHP all speculation but WPL have world class assets in a stable political enviroment close too asia.
Another scenario is BHP takeover RIO they then divest their oil and gas assets too WPL and reduce debt.

[doctorj]

Shell had a crack at Woodside which was ultimately blocked by the Foreign Investment Review Board.

http://www.senatorchapman.com/trwood.htm
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:GBWxShgKvTAJ:www.treasurer.gov.au/tsr/content/transcripts/2001/041.asp+woodside+shell+%22foreign+investment+revie w+board%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=au
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2001/01/18/cnshel18.xml

[chops_a_must]

Last takeover attempt was by Shell they now own 34 % of WPL.
Things changed are new government maybe a new Aus bidder maybe BHP all speculation but WPL have world class assets in a stable political enviroment close too asia.
Another scenario is BHP takeover RIO they then divest their oil and gas assets too WPL and reduce debt.


I don't think any government would be dumb enough to see WPL taken over by a foreign company. After all, it was the WA state government that single handedly kept them going in the 15 years they couldn't turn a profit. Plus all the millions in infrastructure us WAins have paid for them, that we will never get a return on. You can't guilt trip a foreign company like you can Woodside...:2twocents

[Lucky_Country]

Personally im quite happy too hold WPL over the next 5 years without a takeover.
WPL will become a major global oil and gas company in the years ahead
As I said maybe BHP diest there oil and gas assets too WPL they are partners in a number of ventures

[M34N]

Was assuring to see WPL close just short of $50 today, it was hovering around the $46 and $48 range for most of the last month really, fought a lot of resistance at $48 (on three separate occasions that I can remember) in the last few weeks, seems positive. Has been hit hard unfairly since November (or was it early December??) after its results were released, still think this has a bit of room to go higher especially if the price of oil continues as it has been lately.

[Knobby22]

I'm a bit disappointed. After all the bad news I was expecting the price to drop at least 20% and sold some of my shares in expectation.

I can't see the price justification at present though long term (over 3 years) Woodside will still be a good investment.

[Lucky_Country]

WPL on a roll higher oil prices set too continue over the northern hemisphere winter.
In the mean time increased production from there new oil producing fields maybe some news on discoverys in the NW of Aus.
Pluto and the NWS will be constantly under the microscope whilst construction nears completion.
Maybe these are the bargin prices never too be seen again ?
All just my humble opinion

[Lucky_Country]

Still showing strenth in depth with oil price setteling at around $96 a barrel for now anyway with more upside forecast.
Looking forward to the half year reports and dividend paid.

[Lucky_Country]

WPL still rising even though oil dropped very slightly.
Pluto construction will be the backbone of WPL sp over the next 2 years and NWS Train 5 approaching completion will also help push it along.
Maybe more LNG deals being signed and a peak oil theory will also be beneficial.

[Buddy]

Fire is reported at karratha LNG operation.
I dont know the full extent of it yet but understand the plant has undergone ESD. Unless it is a minor fire (although understand to be in substation) with not impact on startup in short term, I doubt if rise in share price today will hold.

[Lucky_Country]

Just when you think you have hit a purple patch then along comes a fire !
Production back tommorrow but feel that NWS has become a bit less important too WPL only 14% ownership still very important but focus for WPL is Pluto and Browse Basin and new oil production projects.
Exploration will hopefully come up trumps in both of these areas and the it should real hit blue sky !

[chops_a_must]

I think it should be a concern that WPL did not hit all time highs alongside the record oil price.

And as I said a few days back, any weakness in oil, and I'd be shorting this. Oil has a few gaps to fill IMO before it holds above $100 I think.

However, WPL is showing remarkable strength, so I'm not confident of it reaching my eventual target of about 42.50.

[Kauri]

Woodside Petroleum has agreed to buy the Northwest Shelf oil assets held by Royal Dutch Shell for around 400 MLN AUD. There have been no details on how the purchase will be financed

[ithatheekret]

I think it should be a concern that WPL did not hit all time highs alongside the record oil price.

And as I said a few days back, any weakness in oil, and I'd be shorting this. Oil has a few gaps to fill IMO before it holds above $100 I think.

However, WPL is showing remarkable strength, so I'm not confident of it reaching my eventual target of about 42.50.

Yes but with Skippy at nice levels WPL is selling in AUD and doing nicely , much the same as BHP and it oil sales . It's this where the arguement for a basket price on oil , probably get's its foundations . Not happy with the gas margins though on a business prospective , moral is the better foundation .

If you look at the shelf area and the surrounding leases etc. it doesn't look like much on a map , but the gas there is going way too cheap to the US .
But we must do something to protect the Northern Hemisphere , if we have gas in the Southern region we should ensure there a nice warm group of trading partners in the North . The Shelf itself has enough gas there to keep the Australian domestic supply up in self sufficiency areas for many decades , but we want the oil . That's where the margins increase beautifully . Got to get the gas off first .......... ay but.

Good to see you back chops too , you been w w wwwor that word ?

[M34N]

So no-one has any interest in this one? It went ex-div today, 55 cents, and it still managed to finish up some 78 cents, so really a gain of $1.33. Seems to be unstoppable lately, have been holding this actually since November last year, the only stock I didn't sell during the last crash, and its performed nicely. Anyone willing to keep holding this or even buy in now? I'm speculating on a further rise in the price of oil given the tensions in the Middle East again with Turkey/Iraq and the usual Iranian war-mongering.

I think this is still a dollar or so off its all time highs set a while back, and with the near record oil price... all signs point to further upside IMO :2twocents

[Lucky_Country]

Profit taking will soon drive WPL back too around $46 combined with a drop in the price of oil as the northern hemisphere winter draws too a close

[vishalt]

Lower oil prices are better for Woodside's margins.

Man what a good investment this company is, ridiculously good pipeline but just scared to buy it at $55.

[56gsa]

Profit taking will soon drive WPL back too around $46 combined with a drop in the price of oil as the northern hemisphere winter draws too a close

hope you're right Lucky_Country cause i sold a parcel today hoping to buy more on a drop... wasn't convinced it would push through $56, indices are turning and run up has been so rapid is there a couple of gaps to fill?

On the weekly the band between $48.50 and $52 looks interesting when compared with fib on todays price (not shown), and support at $47 if they fail

[ShareIt]

This stock is flying!!! Today was the first sign of profit taking... Just waiting for the first sign of a turn and will look to buy at around $50... might short it on the way down:D

[M34N]

I came within about 2 cents of selling this at $56.95 sometime this morning, but I wasn't at the computer and couldn't re-adjust the sell order. Oh well, lets hope its up again tomorrow :banghead: Will probably get out tomorrow irrespective just to close down a position and sit back and watch a little.

A drop down to $46 again? Big call, thats 15-20% down from here virtually, it's all going to depend on the price of oil really, so you can't say that with much certainty -- all it's going to take to push the price of oil above $100 again is another incident in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, another battle with Exxon and Venezuela, a refinery shutdown, hurricane, etc. Too many factors on the positive side for oil lately.

Also interesting to note that WPL's peers today (namely STO, AED, OSH) all down, although STO's been on a moderate decline since its results last week.

[Gekko]

Oil price looking a little toppy. WPL is rather expensive atm. They are far better opportunities elsewhere. I am contemplating taking a short position.

[TheAbyss]

Oil price looking a little toppy. WPL is rather expensive atm. They are far better opportunities elsewhere. I am contemplating taking a short position.


Is that a shorters ramp Gekko?

Hmm Oil is surging and WPL is on a run, cant believe people are not jumping on WPL. I am gonna get some , i think.

Just jokes Gekko Are you after confirmation that shorting is the way to go with WPL or linviting comment? ;):)

[M34N]

Well I dumped mine at $57.05 this afternoon, not sure the oil inventory data coming out of the US tonight will be good (hasn't been good for the past few weeks) so expecting a drop in US crude price tonight.

This stock went from a low of $40.XX in Jan to a near record high $57.31 today -- I wonder how much longer this run can continue? From what I can see, the past 12 sessions have seen 11 days where its share price close UP from the previous close, highly unusual, including a day which went ex-dividend. :eek7:

Maybe shorting this stock now isn't such a bad idea!

[Fester]

New to this discussion.
Interested on any comments re the reasons for the turn around in direction of WPL on Feb 28th?

[kiwiseven]

Has anyone heard any rumours about Woodside farming into either Desire Petroleum or Rockhopper Exploration? Both DES and RKH are UK listed on AIM and exploring for oil around the Falkland Islands.

[Gekko]

Approaching recent all time highs again. If it fails to break through, could be opportunity to take some profit or put some shorts in, particulary given the fact that index's are approaching technical resistence levels (ie, DOW 13100) after having quickly rallied 14% from the lows. If it breaks through above recent high, hold or accumulate more

[sarm]

Hi Everyone

I am just wondering about todays WPL performance. It rose 3% during the course of the day, while its peers fell as crude prices dropped. Does anyone have a good explaination? I mean 3% is rather substanital!

[Lukeyz]

Will WPL open lower tomorrow morning due to the fuel excise being removed in the 2008 budget??? Or already priced in??

Cheers :)

[agro]

Govt hits back at Woodside over tax slug

The Rudd government has hit back at gas giant Woodside Petroleum, saying its new tax slug on light crude oil from the North West Shelf is fair.

Assistant Treasurer Chris Bowen has told parliament North West Shelf stakeholders have benefited very substantially from generous tax concessions that are no longer needed.

Mr Bowen was introducing amendments to the excise tariff law covering condensate - light crude oil extracted from natural gas - which were announced in Tuesday's budget.

The effect is to place North West Shelf condensate on the same excise regime as crude oil, with a top rate of 30 per cent when production exceeds five million barrels a year.

The government estimates the change will boost revenue by $2.5 billion during the next four years.

Woodside chief executive Don Voelte slammed the change on Wednesday, saying the industry had not been consulted.

The exemption was a negotiated fiscal arrangement, not a free ride, he said.

The North West Shelf venture was a major contributor to Australia's economy and changes to the fiscal regime should be considered carefully after consultation with the industry.

Mr Bowen said the change would allow Australians to share more fairly in the benefits from extracting non-renewable energy resources.

Exemption for condensate was introduced in 1977 to encourage the development of petroleum resources on the North West Shelf.

"Stakeholders have benefited very substantially from this concession," Mr Bowen said.

"As the development of petroleum fields in these regions is now reaching maturity, and the world prices for non-renewable energy resources are high, there is no longer a need to retain this generous concession.

"Given the similarity between condensate and crude oil, the two commodities should be taxed in a similar manner."

The change would mean a reduction in royalties to the Western Australian government, Mr Bowen said.

The commonwealth would compensate Western Australia for the loss, with an initial payment of $80 million to cover next financial year.

Mr Bowen said opposition fears that the change could lead to higher petrol prices in Australia were not justified, because the price of petrol was set overseas.http://news.smh.com.au/business/govt-hits-back-at-woodside-over-tax-slug-20080515-2ei5.html

thoughts?

[sarm]

Prices at 63 dollars... not sure how to comment... I dont think this effects the share in any way... The price of crude is has dropped over night yet we still see a share price increase into new territory... WTH?

[juw177]

http://news.smh.com.au/business/govt-hits-back-at-woodside-over-tax-slug-20080515-2ei5.html

thoughts?

I can't fault the decision. It is good to see the government is standing up to the powerful lobby groups and act in the interest of the citizens.

[Knobby22]

I can't fault the decision. It is good to see the government is standing up to the powerful lobby groups and act in the interest of the citizens.

As long as they spend the money wisely. That's the rub.

Interesting how the price jumped, possibly must have been known by insiders before hand who shorted and had to get back in.

[prana]

Massive rally today. Are there take over rumours or Chinese interest in the company, or just a rally in oil ?

[Uncle Festivus]

Massive rally today. Are there take over rumours or Chinese interest in the company, or just a rally in oil ?

Looks like a general rally in energy stocks, XEJ up 4.5%. Looks impressive! Maybe parabolic blow-off top?

[MRC & Co]

Maybe parabolic blow-off top?

I hope so :D

I'm looking for some kind of retracement in oil so I can get in, even if simply as a hedge to how much my car costs to drive around :eek:!

Para blow-off top would be even better!

[Uncle Festivus]

I hope so :D

I'm looking for some kind of retracement in oil so I can get in, even if simply as a hedge to how much my car costs to drive around :eek:!

Para blow-off top would be even better!

FWIW, i've taken a short here @ 6860. Unless it's something more than a reaction to the GS report saying oil will average $140 this year then we could get a fall back after this strong rally? Brave lemmings buying at $68.90 top? STO up over 7% too.

[ShareIt]

Only the smart will take a short if you know what i mean;) I ain't a hungry chicken that needs feeding:D I'm waiting for a $70 touch

[agro]

far out
wonder whats going on!!

certainly not just the oil at 128 :S..

they mentioned on sky news today that shell wanted them a while back but was rejected

edit - santos up too

[Uncle Festivus]

Only the smart will take a short if you know what i mean;) I ain't a hungry chicken that needs feeding:D I'm waiting for a $70 touch
Yes, looks like going para all right - 10% now! There's your $70 one touch!!! Put another short on the fire ;). Goldman Sachs ramp has a lot of explaining to do?

[Uncle Festivus]

That little episode just added some $4.4 Billion to the market cap!!

[The Once-ler]

they mentioned on sky news today that shell wanted them a while back but was rejected


Wasn't it a few years ago when shell wanted Woodside?
When they were $13 or so?

......................................

[M34N]

Also heard the rumor about an offer from Shell on Sky News. Would explain the rally in the whole sector, definitely speculative buying given we've had bigger rallies in the oil price and nothing near this kind of gain. Seemed to have rocketed off around midday too.

Spewing I sold this one a while back! :banghead:

But yeah, a short now seems the goods, don't think there's any basis for this rally, odds are it's just speculation. But would recommend waiting until a drop in the crude oil price first before doing that, could still be a lot of bulls pushing up oil for a while longer, too much risk to go in yet either way.

[jonojpsg]

Hey all,
I was going to take a short on this this morning after seeing it run so hard yesterday but forgot until now.

Is anyone watching their screens though?? There is almost ZERO sell depth for WPL - currently 3000 sell and 300000 buy!!!!!:eek7::eek7:

Also weird because there aren't ANY sellers on the sell side and it still shows a total of 3000 shares:confused:

I've never seen this before - would have thought it would push the price up though??

[ShareIt]

I had a short on it yesterday at $70 but pulled out today... It seems to show too much strength at the moment and it simply looks like a pullback will form before another push up:2twocents

[Aussiest]

Pity about the short at $70. But, it looks like it has broken through resistance of $56.00 today. Should be interesting.

[cartel31]

Charts are looking good. Energy sector has been doing well lately with all the good reporting comming out for oil stocks.

Woodside is going to report its second half earning on Wednesday. So it is going to have record earnings no doubt on the back of high oil prices last FYI.

IMO I'm expecting a 5% to 10% jump on Wednesday, hopefully.

I'm still new at this so everyone do your own research!

Anyone else?

[deadset]

WPL's gotta be looking good right, with oil on the way back up and WPL at a support level.

$51 with oil in the 90's going back up. I'm surmising it'd get back to around $58 soon. Whatchya reckon ?

[skunkmonkey]

I don't think the normal rules apply this week! WPL's share price will, like every other stock, depend on what events unfold in the money markets over the next few days. It's just madness... :D

[deadset]

Comsec made me mad just then.

I'm trying to buy at $48, its says "cannot accept at market order" due to trading hours. It was 10:43am. So for the next 5 minutes I'm trying to place the order and it kept saying, "cannot accept".

Then it went to $50, then it finally accepted the order then promptly dropped below $50.

I'm fairly sure the W bracket stocks open at 10:16am normally ?
Does anyone know for sure when the W stocks opened this morning ?
Oh well, the daily min says $49.5, so maybe I was getting worked up over nothing.

[dan-o]

This one has dropped like everything else. At around $37 do people think this is good value? Im becoming interested in this stock...

[prana]

depends if you believe oil and LNG is likely to remain high. I'm holding mine through, and will accumulate again. The asset debt and operating revenue is insanity, to me these are cash cows of the current climate but who cares about those now - its the future demand for oil/energy and it depends what you think.

[Lucky_Country]

Trend is the freind and WPL seems to have lost its market darling status with futher downside.
Long term it will be a big winner and a world class company.
A world leader in LNG with acerages everyone wants.

[gerg]

Hi there
Relooking at WPL it looks a good value proposition at current prices below $45 or so. Huntleys have it as a stock of the week.

Given its strong future with gas and LNG and the likely rebound in oil prices over time it llok slike a buy to me at current levels.

Thoughts anyone?

gerg

[jet328]

Given its strong future with gas and LNG and the likely rebound in oil prices over time it llok slike a buy to me at current levels.


I agree, picked up some the other week. Absolutely no idea if this is the bottom or not, but if you take a 3 to 5 year view I think this is an attractive level.
The world is short energy and natural gas will become more popular in future years as it releases less CO2 per unit of energy compared to coal or oil.

Although, when Huntley's recommends something I get concerned...

[PFWA85]

agreed with above comments, picked some up yesterday at $42. was abit annoyed though as a nearly bought some last week at 39.50 but cancelled the order, wish i didnt now. not too fussed though as i think either way at its current levels and the way things could head in the future, its a company to keep an eye on.

[kennas]

I think we identified this one in the H&S thread and it made the target, plus some.

In a support zone here.

Looks like 5 down to my untrained eye.

Is oil oversold?

hmmmmmm

[basilio]

Two issues on oil. World recession/depression will depress demand and certainly prices for the immediate future.

However the rapid depletion of current oil reserves from present production will see even a reduced demand hit even lower production levels. If we are to believe it, the IEA (international Energy Agency) just released a report identifying the rapid depletion rate of most of the worlds large oil fields. I believe the figure was between 5% and 9% a year.

[Bluebeard]

Ive been researching the level of oil & gas reserves for WPL. From what I saw oil reserves seem very substantial but is there any way of determining how long these reserves for oil & gas will last based on what is actually determined?

[golfmos123]

I think we identified this one in the H&S thread and it made the target, plus some.

In a support zone here.

Looks like 5 down to my untrained eye.

Is oil oversold?

hmmmmmm


Thanks Kennas - nice textbook chart for a H&S. Looks to me like WPL at least is oversold. Not really sure about POO in general though. Would like to think that with OPEC looking to further cut production, that will build a floor under POO. That might at least stop the haemorraging that has been going on with WPL. Sadly I bought it when it was a bargain at $50.

Got to believe in those long term strategies.....

[LJT]

I have a small shareholding in Woodside. Other than that, no relationship past or present with Woodside nor any axe to grind with WPL. I do not think it is appropriate for Mr Voelte as a very well paid MD/CEO to take on a directorship of WAN. Surely, the basis of his Woodside remuneration is that he will devote his energy and time to his Woodside role. The Woodside Board would have approved Mr Voelte's new role - I cannot understand why they would agree to this. I doubt that if a middle ranking manager at Woodside wanted to take time off regularly to work at a second paid job during normal working hours, that that would be sanctioned. Isn't this part of the justification for the huge salaries paid to CEO's of publicly listed companies, that they give their all whilst in the role? This does not mean that they cannot have a life outside of their CEO role, but perhaps their spare time is better spent relaxing and recuperating from the demands of their full time role, so that they can better perform their role, rather than more of the same at another company.

[Knobby22]

I have a small shareholding in Woodside. Other than that, no relationship past or present with Woodside nor any axe to grind with WPL. I do not think it is appropriate for Mr Voelte as a very well paid MD/CEO to take on a directorship of WAN. Surely, the basis of his Woodside remuneration is that he will devote his energy and time to his Woodside role. The Woodside Board would have approved Mr Voelte's new role - I cannot understand why they would agree to this. I doubt that if a middle ranking manager at Woodside wanted to take time off regularly to work at a second paid job during normal working hours, that that would be sanctioned. Isn't this part of the justification for the huge salaries paid to CEO's of publicly listed companies, that they give their all whilst in the role? This does not mean that they cannot have a life outside of their CEO role, but perhaps their spare time is better spent relaxing and recuperating from the demands of their full time role, so that they can better perform their role, rather than more of the same at another company.

I think you misunderstand the role of a CEO. It is to act to oversee the company and generally set its direction and agendas. The real work is done by others. It has absolutely nothing to do with feathering their own nest and going to functions on private jets.

With regard to directorships outside the company, any CEO would argue allows them to be better connected and has absolutely nothing at all to do with having an easy lucrative job when their CEO contract runs out.

[nikemi]

WPL at 44.00 in the pre-open against close of 36 yesterday. Have I missed something?

Has anywone heard anythings. That after oil went under 40, seems very strange! But again that is the market for you.

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

WPL in 2009 ..... expecting some big winners in the oil sector,
in the coming year, but January 2009 may bring some negative
surprises for some oilers ... most notably WPL, particularly around:

02-05012009 ... negative news expected

07012009 ... minor and positive cycle

16-23012009 ... 3 significant time cycles to bring
negative news for WPL ..... ???

STU will be another oiler that may suffer, with the cycles
detailed, above.

Soon after, STO and STX will also suffer, as several negative
time cycles come into play, between 23012009 and 20022009.

More later.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[gfresh]

Looking at starting to pick up some of this for the bottom draw.

A little surprised it has not come down further to be honest?

Looking at their majority oil side, we've had oil come down from $US140 to now ~$US36. Our dollar has come down from avg 90c to what may average around 65c. Assuming some sort of average of $US110bbl down to $US40bbl for 09, that's $AUD122bbl (90) to $AUS62bbl (65), or nearly 50% reduction per barrel.

EPS forecast is 329.5cps for 08. According to WPL, production in 09 should be steady compared to 08. So if the profit per bbl is halved, 09 net profit could be considered down at least 30-40%

Currently trading at $32.90, on 08 P/E that's 10, but for 2009 can see no pricing of some 30-40% reduction in net profit, which should price it at around $27, and that is generous..

At the moment seems to only be priced in a mere 20% fall in eps (at forward 12 p/e)

I assume Woodside would have not had full exposure to each of these movements due to longer-term contracts, but either seems like market has priced in a strong reduction in $AUD, and/or a higher oil price than $US40bbl in 2009 ?

[kennas]

Anyone holding or watching?

Wonder if anyone more cashed up than us would like to bolt them on at these levels? Has been discussed quite a bit the past few years that they wouldn't stay independant for much longer, but they still are....

I assume when the downturn turns and people start driving their V12s SUVs in the USA, and the Chinese all replace the bike with a car that POO will recover, and so will WPL.

I've got no idea how significant the recent gas descovry is.

ASX Announcement
Wednesday, 25 February 2009
MARTELL GAS DISCOVERY UPDATE
On 24 February 2009 Woodside reported a gas discovery in the Martell-1 exploration well in permit WA-404-P in Western Australia’s Carnarvon Basin.
Pressure testing of sandstones over an interval of 2778 metres to 3201 metres (MDRT*) has confirmed a gross gas column of about 110 metres and the presence of a gas-water contact.
The Martell-1 well is about 290 km from Karratha and 100 km north-west of the Pluto field. Water depth at the location is 1290 metres.
The Martell-1 discovery is expected to be followed by further drilling on the structural trend later in 2009.
Woodside Energy Ltd is Operator of WA-404-P and has a 50% equity interest. Hess Exploration (Carnarvon) Pty Ltd has the remaining 50% equity.

What's a 110m column sound like? Any clues?

At the moment doesn't seem to be going anywhere. I thought it may have been on the way up after getting through $36 but promptly fell. Now a little support at $32 with $36 again the resistance. I'm looking to see which one gives for direction.

[grace]

I am still holding Kennas from 2 years ago. My buy price was $33 and the POO was about $50 then as I recall. I guess I haven't lost any money on them, and have picked up some divs. I call any buy into the good oil/gas stocks a good move. Oil won't stay this low forever.:)

[shag]

yes the POO seems to have found a bottom. opec have made large cuts and even they must be able to get their sh-t togeather to get 60-80 bucks a barrel in this climate, rather than floating it away for sub 50.
they know they won't have it forever and have seen what peak oil does, ie the quick escalation to 150 a barrel.
gas is so clean and usable too. cng cars don't stink like todays petrol ones.
with todays technology its easily transportable also.
the world has far too much coal for its own good, unless we can get some form of carbon capture. bloody china has massive amounts of cr-p coal it will likely try to burn increasingly.

[prana]

I'm a holder - good company, solid assets and long oil (drop in exploration) supply side fundamentals, I picked up more. Contango agrees :)

[gfresh]

Results out today.. revenue down -14% on last quarter and same qtr last year (-36%).

Q2 Production Revenue down: $938M vs $1090 Q2 08
YTD Revenue 2009 $2028.1 vs $2574.3 2008

Production is fairly steady

So higher $AUD seems to be having a hit on their results (as per Santos), as to be expected I guess. Still waiting on the LNG to really up the $ numbers, still over a year away.

[kennas]

Potential breakout through $45?

Operating at a pretty big PE which has always been the case. Maybe due to the growth potential, quality of assets and takeover spec factored in. The logical tie up with BHP lingers. Just a question whether BHP wants more O&G exposure I suppose.

[shag]

could bhp afford wpl and rio combined?
i thought rio alone was a stretch...
all three would really be the big australian.

[dan-o]

Does anyone who follows WPL closely think they are likely to raise equity?? ive been watching this one for a while but would like to know peoples thoughts...

[jancha]

Interesting interview with Don Voelte Chief Executive Officer of WPL on the subject of CSG. He stated that the company would never get into the CSG. Lots of negatives & that the smart buyers have sold out of it now that the hype has worn down & now the cost factor comes into it. He doesn't think it will even take off. Article in the Eureka Report 7th of Sept. Any thoughts on his comments?

[TheAbyss]

Interesting interview with Don Voelte Chief Executive Officer of WPL on the subject of CSG. He stated that the company would never get into the CSG. Lots of negatives & that the smart buyers have sold out of it now that the hype has worn down & now the cost factor comes into it. He doesn't think it will even take off. Article in the Eureka Report 7th of Sept. Any thoughts on his comments?

Is that like the oil companies saying electric cars will never be mass produced or any other producer/ manufacturer saying the competition isn't really competition to them?

CSG in Qld alone is equal to the oil energy reserves in WA so why wouldn't he maintain his defensive position? Its what he has to do as both share similar marketplaces.

The billions of dollars invested and planned expenditure to date belie the great Don's words of wisdom re CSG is dying. Yes it costs more to produce however that is offset by the large quantities available.

There is room for more than one energy source. Ask the power stations lining up to book their CSG driven gas supplies to power their generators. Then consider the Asian conglomerates who are lining up to secure CSG produced LNG for their shores.

I own WPL for the Oil and LNG interests however i also have quite a few CSG plays and have ridden that wave for quite a few years now. CSG is a real threat to thermal coal not WPl so not sure why Don has been so vocal for so long about CSG not getting off the ground. Having said that, there are far too many existing Thermal coal driven power stations etc to say CSG will replace that medium however there are now more power stations being built to take gas so there is a future for CSG make no mistake.

To say it will not ever take off is ludicrous as there are a raft of multi-nationals already on board and driving htis industry. Yes things have slowed down for some consolidation however that doesn't mean there isnt a whole lot more to this ride. Actual sales and production are the tip of the ice berg so far. This will be a great story for decades or the next great energy source. Yes we will need oil for a very long time however LNG is the next wave not a play toy of the rich, it is a viable and marketable product so CSG is here to stay the only question is how big a part will it play?:2twocents

[cctrouble]

Is that like the oil companies saying electric cars will never be mass produced or any other producer/ manufacturer saying the competition isn't really competition to them?

CSG in Qld alone is equal to the oil energy reserves in WA so why wouldn't he maintain his defensive position? Its what he has to do as both share similar marketplaces.

The billions of dollars invested and planned expenditure to date belie the great Don's words of wisdom re CSG is dying. Yes it costs more to produce however that is offset by the large quantities available.

There is room for more than one energy source. Ask the power stations lining up to book their CSG driven gas supplies to power their generators. Then consider the Asian conglomerates who are lining up to secure CSG produced LNG for their shores.

I own WPL for the Oil and LNG interests however i also have quite a few CSG plays and have ridden that wave for quite a few years now. CSG is a real threat to thermal coal not WPl so not sure why Don has been so vocal for so long about CSG not getting off the ground. Having said that, there are far too many existing Thermal coal driven power stations etc to say CSG will replace that medium however there are now more power stations being built to take gas so there is a future for CSG make no mistake.

To say it will not ever take off is ludicrous as there are a raft of multi-nationals already on board and driving htis industry. Yes things have slowed down for some consolidation however that doesn't mean there isnt a whole lot more to this ride. Actual sales and production are the tip of the ice berg so far. This will be a great story for decades or the next great energy source. Yes we will need oil for a very long time however LNG is the next wave not a play toy of the rich, it is a viable and marketable product so CSG is here to stay the only question is how big a part will it play?:2twocents

The third world will never take to electric cars so there's still a good market for petroleum companies.

[gfresh]

The third world will never take to electric cars so there's still a good market for petroleum companies.

Wish to rethink? http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/02/business/global/02electric.html

[TheAbyss]

The third world will never take to electric cars so there's still a good market for petroleum companies.

I have no doubt about that. My point is that there is room for Oil and LNG. If you believe that then you have to believe the CSG story because CSG will produce enough LNG to sustain a contribution to our energy guzzling planet for quite a while and at a healthy profit.

No it wont replace oil but it will certainly cement itself as a viable energy source which old mate Don at WPL is casting some doubt but as i have said previously, that is his responsibility as a Oil and Gas leader. WPL is a great company no doubt.

[enigmatic]

Announcement out today
Woodside Announces A$2.5 Billion Equity Raising
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01022048

Looks like they are doing a 1 for 12 accelerated renounceable entitlement at $42.1 a share i was interested does anyone know if there is a min share purchase.

I was also looking through the presentation and it looks promising with the ramp up of production of LNG by WPL going from about 3mtpa -> 20mtpa within the next 10years.

[skyQuake]

Announcement out today
Woodside Announces A$2.5 Billion Equity Raising
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01022048

Looks like they are doing a 1 for 12 accelerated renounceable entitlement at $42.1 a share i was interested does anyone know if there is a min share purchase.

I was also looking through the presentation and it looks promising with the ramp up of production of LNG by WPL going from about 3mtpa -> 20mtpa within the next 10years.

Its pro-rata so probably no min share purchase (1 share maybe).
A bit of selling on the other oilers possibly to fund WPL entitlements.

[Knobby22]

Announcement out today
Woodside Announces A$2.5 Billion Equity Raising
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01022048

Looks like they are doing a 1 for 12 accelerated renounceable entitlement at $42.1 a share i was interested does anyone know if there is a min share purchase.

I was also looking through the presentation and it looks promising with the ramp up of production of LNG by WPL going from about 3mtpa -> 20mtpa within the next 10years.

That explains the recent weakness in price. I couldn't work it out.

It would be foolish to not take up the offer imao. (the a stands for arrogant, I don't really seee how it can be humble.).

[eddyeagle]

I'm thinking of adding WPL to my portfolio as a long term investment as i'm bullish on the long term oil price and I like the LNG prospects, but I think it's important to get the entry point timing right.

It's in a trading halt til the 17th with this capital raising and the SP is currently $47.18. Do people think the share price will take a bit of hit when it comes back online?

[oldblue]

The shares are already ex issue so when they resume trading tomorrow I would expect a bit of weakness from the previous close. Not a lot I wouldn't think and nowhere near the issue price of $42.10 but maybe somewhere around $44-$46.

At these levels it would be attractive to me and I could be a buyer.

;)

[vincent191]

Oldblue....I agree with you. Since it is only a 1 for 12 issue and at only a 10% discount, THERE IS NO WAY it will open at $42!!! I reckon maybe $46 and maybe even go up!!!!

[oldblue]

An article here from Bryan Frith of The Australian discusses the WPL issue and the rationale for this particular method of raising new equity.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/energy-giant-quits-debt-strategy-for-equity-raising/story-e6frg8zx-1225810741297

[skyQuake]

All the selling from retail guys to raise money for the entitlement should be done by now (offer closes this fri).
Reversal could be in the cards here, buying pressure setting it green despite the $1 drop in oil again. Lets see where this closes (oh an oppies expiry too!)

[aaronphetamine]

Short of contacting Woodside Petroleum Investor Relations, can anyone shed some light on when the 2009 Full Year Results are due to be released? In previous years it was around the 18th of February. Ive gone through the Interem Results Booklet and Q4 Market Update and neither point to a precise day of the results and subsequent dividend release to the market. Its not on their website either. I find this a little poor considering every other company of that size and calibre lets their investors know reporting dates in advance.

I am a shareholder of Woodside Petroleum.

[Atomic]

Can't find much on wpl.
So where are they heading up from here , possible yearly lows at $40 - $42.
there is some industrial action up north at their site and share price has been battered some what last 3 months

[The_Snowman]

Can't find much on wpl.
So where are they heading up from here , possible yearly lows at $40 - $42.
there is some industrial action up north at their site and share price has been battered some what last 3 months

No easy answer on that ATM, a lot depends on the OIL price I believe, which recently broke $80 per BBL - see here -

INCREDIBLE CHARTS OIL $80 (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2010-08-05_gold_forex.php)

Also, a lot depends on what your time frame is for trading, short term CFD or long term investing?

See the chart below, I'm sure the situation will be resolved one way or the other before too long - beware the ides of October ??? :2twocents

And if it does head lower, the $35.50 to $37.50 region would be an excellent buying opportunity - are we allowed to say that? :confused:

[UMike]

FYI

Shell’s subsidiary, Shell Energy Holdings Australia Limited (“SEHAL”), has entered into an underwriting agreement with UBS AG, for the sale of 78.34 million shares in Woodside, representing 29.18% of its interest in Woodside and 10.0% of the issued capital in Woodside at a price of A$42.23 per share. Upon completion of the sale, SEHAL will continue to own a 24.27% interest in Woodside. As part of this transaction, SEHAL has committed to retain its remaining shares in Woodside for a minimum of one year, with limited exceptions, including a sale to a strategic third party of an interest greater than 3% in Woodside provided the purchaser agrees to be bound by the same escrow restrictions to which SEHAL is subject or in pursuit of an acceptance to a bona fide takeover offer for Woodside.

Do you think this will affect the SP today and in the short term?
Why would they set a price $4.17 or almost 10% below Fridays opening price?


Might pick it up again if it drops to that level or below. :confused:

[oldblue]

FYI


Do you think this will affect the SP today and in the short term?
Why would they set a price $4.17 or almost 10% below Fridays opening price?


Might pick it up again if it drops to that level or below. :confused:

Presumably that's the price at which they're confident of placing the shares.

It's normal for a large, but not controlling interest to need to be offered at a discount to current MV. The degree of discount is, of course, a matter of judgement at the time.

[UMike]

That is a $326,677,800 discount from what they could discreetly recieve at around Fridays opening price.

Thats a huge amount of money.to not try to get the most out of.

[skc]

That is a $326,677,800 discount from what they could discreetly recieve at around Fridays opening price.

Thats a huge amount of money.to not try to get the most out of.

Avergae daily volume of WPL may be 2.5m shares. To sell discretely, they might get away with 1m shares each day and even that would push the price down.

I guess they just couldn't wait that 76 days to offload on the market.

[UMike]

Avergae daily volume of WPL may be 2.5m shares. To sell discretely, they might get away with 1m shares each day and even that would push the price down.

I guess they just couldn't wait that 76 days to offload on the market.
Not arguing with anyone but for 300 odd more million I'd wait. :sly: (or figure out a better way).



Dunno whether to get another lot. Might wait a bit but I am bloody glad I got rid of half my holding On Fridays open.