QGC - Queenland Gas Company

[malachii]

Been following this one for a while - had a good run up to now - although that is being driven by the fact that if you're a shareholder before 11/2 you will be allocated shares at 25 cents. Also had a great announcement today.

Anyone else follow this one. Any guesses how the share price will be affected once the share purchase plan finishes?

Malachii

[RichKid]

Price is sure to go down to near pre-issue price imo. Only question is how far? Price for share issue is very attractive but I'll probably look to buy in once the full effect of the dilution is apparent, especially at these hyper inflated prices, it'll come roaring down next week once the entitlement ends. Although, positive anncts may keep the price a bit stable. I must say I like QGC long term, congrats malachii on picking a nice one!

[RichKid]

Well the drop has started, a bit slow but should gather momentum as current holders may have to sell shares to fund the placement costs.

[malachii]

I have to admit I was expecting a much greater drop - maybe people dont realize they needed to buy the shares yesterday to be a part of the placement? Althought most of the trades today were of a larger size - not the 1-2000 shares we've been seeing over the last few weeks so who knows.

Malachii

[RichKid]

Yes, a bit odd, but that's the market, we never really know what's going on. The smaller parcels previously would just have been new buyers getting a holding to attract the entitlement. There would be some buyers who haven't looked at fundamentals at all and just bought thinking the price would keep going up (ie didn't know of the share issue). There will also be people who are averaging down. It may drop steadily and then sink fast and recover quickly (or it may not), not sure how far down it'll go but it should go below 40c imo.

[malachii]

Richkid

Did you check this one today - it's up to 60 cents!!! I just dont get it - not complaining though.

Malachii

[RichKid]

It's the announcement of gas flows, that was the only thing I could think of that would keep it high (ie positive anncts). I'm not holding yet but it's good to see someone's doing well out of it!

[RichKid]

Looks like the good news keeps flowing, really supporting that sp, the co has certainly timed things well to keep the effect of the new issue to a minimum.

[malachii]

Still cant believe this one is holding around the high 50's!!!!

Tech if you happen to see this I wouldn't mind an unattached traders opinion of how you see this one.

Malachii

[tech/a]

Unattached---there are times I wish I was!!

[malachii]

Thanks tech - the unattached part is pretty hard for me too!!! I find I'm unattached until the second I push the buy button and then all the best intentions are out the window. I'm pretty lucky in some ways cos my wife is my stop loss. We have alerts sent to my wifes mobile and if one goes off - she sells it - she has no idea what the share actually is and if we made a profit or not but she knows that when that alarms goes off she sells the share. I'd like to say it's a fool proof system but it's the best we've come up with yet!

Malachii

[RichKid]

Seems to be continuing down, has broken that primary uptrend support line (just hanging around below it atm) and headed for support around 42c (previous resistance). If it breaks that then I expect it'll linger a bit more in that congestion area in the high 30's. Early days yet, the next major annct may send this up again but I think they've finished drilling for now- or am I wrong?

[RichKid]

Read the annct? With the co stuffing up allocations I reckon I'm lucky I stayed out of this one, people will still make a decent profit but not as much as anticipated. Big fall today and heading downstream again. Let's see if they can sort something out with ASIC/ASX. Still a great co for the longterm but I'm going to wait till this bottoms and recovers. Drilling is done as well so no near term drivers.

[suzanne]

Hi Guys,

Any one still following QGC. Do you think we are going to see some action soon.

What are your thoughts.

Suzanne

[Sea Dog]

I am disappointed with the measly allocation of shares ( SPP ) - I am awaiting news of the 2nd SPP announcement especially the price that QGC decides to set for it. I had bought QGC more as a speculative stock after having read a report by Wilson HTM Securities in October 04 - Considering that all of their announcements so far hve been positive I shall be holding on to QGC for some time to come ! :)

[RichKid]

I am disappointed with the measly allocation of shares ( SPP ) - I am awaiting news of the 2nd SPP announcement especially the price that QGC decides to set for it. I had bought QGC more as a speculative stock after having read a report by Wilson HTM Securities in October 04 - Considering that all of their announcements so far hve been positive I shall be holding on to QGC for some time to come ! :)

Yes, looks like a good one for the long term. The SPP plan results were shocking and now there'll be another one which'll drive the price up and then down again, a bit expensive for the co but longterm holders will be ok. I'm still bearish short term, maybe another down wave or two to go?? Depends on the spp2 timetable and details.

[RichKid]

Looks like a saucer/rounding turn and now retesting the lip again. Anyone else watching?

[skin]

From a Distance - have a position and in the for the long haul,

[GreatPig]

Had some a little while ago for a short term trade and made a reasonable return on that last rise. Don't have any now though.

Cheers,
GP

[RichKid]

The pattern of the last couple of weeks appears to be a bullish wedge, now near support so it's getting interesting. Valuations I've seen via brokers (reports on co website www.qgc.com.au) on a conservative basis range from 52c to 67c. They have recently finalised credit arrangements and have completed capital raisings so no further dilution expected.

[skin]

this share has been providing "top up" levels this week. Nearly down to the last share plan price of 37 cents. A lot has happenned since then - Sentient on board - good price to gather - only in my opinion - not advice to anyone!! :2twocents

[Joe Blow]

Moving north nicely this morning after the following announcement:


New mini-pilot heralds the start of development drilling at Berwyndale South

Queensland Gas Company (QGC) as Operator for the Berwyndale South Joint Venture, has commenced the field development drilling of the wells required to deliver the gas required for the CS Energy contract. QGC is contracted to supply CS Energy with4 petajoules per year for 10 years, and it is hoped to be supplying the first gas by April 2006.

The development wells will include an initial mini-pilot designed to prove up the gas reserves within the underlying Taroom coal seams. To this point, the certified proved and probable (2P) gas reserves within Berwyndale South are confined to coal seam gas from the Juandah coal seams, and take no account of gas from the underlying Taroom coal seams. The Lauren #3 well, located some 15km to the south-east, was a Taroom-only well that flowed at a 7 day average of 770,000 cubic feet per day – a very commercial rate. It is believed that there are good prospects of this style and result being replicated at Berwyndale South.

QGC’s Managing Director, Richard Cottee, pointed out that if economic quantities of the gas required at Berwyndale South could be recovered from the underlying Taroom coals, fewer development holes would be required for the Gas field development and capital costs would be substantially reduced.
“Because of the impact on the profitability of the project, it is important to evaluate the Taroom gas option through this mini-pilot before embedding the current development design into the overall development”, Mr Cottee said. “If coal seam gas from both the Juandah and the Taroom coals could be tapped from single wells, the recoverable gas per well would be increased, as well as boosting the 2P reserve base at Berwyndale South. The result would be a significant improvement in the whole-of-life economics of the Berwyndale South development” Mr Cottee said.

Drilling will commence today on the “Windibri” the property owned by the Berwyndale South Joint Venturers (see attached map). This property will also be the site of the Gas field gathering station and compressor unit.

The Berwyndale South Gas field lies within PL201 in which QGC has a 90% interest and The Sentient Group 10%. Lauren #3 lies within the adjoining ATP 620P held jointly by QGC (59.375%) and Pangaea Oil & Gas Pty Ltd (40.625%).

:)

[Joe Blow]

Is QGC beginning to wake up?

Next step would appear to be a convincing break above resistance at 45c on decent volume. One worth keeping an eye on.

[GreatPig]

Or it could just be a short ride to nowhere, like the previous rise back in July.

Nice new avatar you got there Joe. I'm scared already :D

GP

[Joe Blow]

Nice new avatar you got there Joe. I'm scared already :D

GP, I'm gonna make you an offer you can't refuse. :D

Re QGC: Seems to be showing some strength this morning on the back of the release of its annual report. Will be interesting to see if it can continue the trend. 50c would appear to be the next significant barrier.

[GreatPig]

Hey, how come your avatar is bigger???

I'm sure when I did some new ones recently, the limit was 80 x 80. Now I see it's 100 x 100.

You trying to stay ahead of the Jones's here? :D

Cheers,
GP

[Joe Blow]

Hey, how come your avatar is bigger???

I'm sure when I did some new ones recently, the limit was 80 x 80. Now I see it's 100 x 100.

I noticed it was 80x80 last night when I added the new avatar. I always thought it was 100x100 for some reason.

So I changed it. :D

[RichKid]

QGC has done a runner on me! Just before the stock tipping comp opens, it bolts! Just check out the director buying, one guy buys in Sept and only announces yesterday, another bought last week and again annct yesterday, wish they'd make them announce it within 24hrs- hope I've read the dates correctly. Now straight after the news is released to the market it's away (well, climbed before that so someone knew).

[GreatPig]

QGC has done a runner on me!
I know what you mean.

I almost bought in around 50 cents, when the rounded bottom looked complete. However, I'd recently had so many rounded bottoms fail on me, that I withdrew the order I had in before it got filled and decided to stay out.

Which of course pretty much assured its success... :rolleyes:

Cheers,
GP

[RichKid]

I know what you mean.

I almost bought in around 50 cents, when the rounded bottom looked complete. However, I'd recently had so many rounded bottoms fail on me, that I withdrew the order I had in before it got filled and decided to stay out.

Which of course pretty much assured its success... :rolleyes:

Cheers,
GP

Another director buy annct was released today, again purchases from last week- I wonder what the rules say about continuous disclosure of dir tnxns in their co, I really reckon it ought to be disclosure in 24hrs so everyone is on a level playing field, it's not too much to ask when you can just lodge things electronically with the ASX imo. If I knew they'd bought I would have entered straightaway.

Hey GP,
do you want to do some rounding bottom analysis in the rounding bottoms thread? Just post the charts that failed and we'll do a post mortem if you're interested and try to pick the tell tale signs of the better prospects (or danger signals). I know it'll be in hindsight but better than nothing. For those new to saucers and rounding bottoms see the rounding bottoms thread ( http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=761&highlight=rounding+bottom) for info on criteria.
It appears that the safest bets are on stocks which are identical to the classical pattern (very rare imo).

[GreatPig]

Just post the charts that failed and we'll do a post mortem if you're interested and try to pick the tell tale signs of the better prospects
I'll post a couple in that thread that I've found again.

Some were probably more my fault for selling too early on the first sign of weakness, but of the ones I did buy into recently, TAM was the only decent one I stuck with. I sold that one in August, just before the fall then, and didn't buy back into the subsequent rise.

Cheers,
GP

[RichKid]

I'll post a couple in that thread that I've found again.

Some were probably more my fault for selling too early on the first sign of weakness, but of the ones I did buy into recently, TAM was the only decent one I stuck with. I sold that one in August, just before the fall then, and didn't buy back into the subsequent rise.

Cheers,
GP

Thanks GP, I've posted my stuff in the saucer thread. Glad you've made some $$$ out of these patterns as I think they're worth it.

[malachii]

More director purchases!! What's going on here - the directors (mainly Elphinstone) are buying this thing hand over fist?????

malachii

WARNING: I OWN SHARES IN THIS COMPANY - GOING ON PAST HISTORY THIS IS PROBABLY A BAD SIGN!

[RichKid]

More director purchases!! What's going on here - the directors (mainly Elphinstone) are buying this thing hand over fist?????

malachii

WARNING: I OWN SHARES IN THIS COMPANY - GOING ON PAST HISTORY THIS IS PROBABLY A BAD SIGN!

Just be careful with the dates, quite a few anncts are old news, one was particularly late in being announced. The sp has moved a fair bit since then. Let's see how it goes, ready for another run?

[ob1kenobi]

QGC today came close to equaling its last high. Around 11 Feb 2005 QGC reached $0-74. From memory there was a special public share issue at that time. Today it closed $0-735. The chart has been consolidating in recent times and the price movement today is on the back of a market sensitive ASX announcement. In short QGC is almost ready to turn its gas exploration efforts into a commercial reality, ahead of contractual deadlines.

The following is from the QGC website and is part of the ASX announcement released today.

Monthly Status Report January 2006 17-Jan-2006

Overall Project status

QGC’s Berwyndale South Project is on target to supply CS Energy with coal seam gas several months ahead of the contractual deadline of 31 July 2006. The project is on budget and very encouraging gas flows have been recorded from new development wells in recent weeks. One of the new wells (# 18) produced more than 2 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) without the need for pumping.

To download entire Monthly Status Report (pdf) click here (http://www.qgc.com.au/downloads/2006-01-17-monthly-status-report-january-2006.cfm?action=get)

Top of page (http://www.qgc.com.au/news/20060117-5888.cfm#)

For further information go to:
http://www.qgc.com.au/news/20060117-5888.cfm (http://www.qgc.com.au/news/20060117-5888.cfm)

The chart for the year to date is attached.

[ob1kenobi]

Queensland Gas Company broke through the 80 cent barrier today to close at 83 cents. This is a percentage change of 6.41%. The price increase is on the back of an ASX announcement that QGC is making a bid for 50% of Sydney Gas Ltd (SGL) and another announcement regarding strong flows from another well. With commercial agreements about to come on line, this may be an interesting one to watch. Will it break the 90 cent barrier and push towards the $1-00 mark? It has two twin peaks in recent times and whilst it has been nudging the overbought line, it has never crossed into that territory. Charts are attached.

[malachii]

WARNING: I OWN SHARES IN THIS COMPANY - DO YOUR OWN RISK ASSESSMENT - I HAVE A VERY BIASED INTEREST IN THIS STOCK!!!!!

This one has been a little money spinner (I got in at the mid 20 cents price). I think a lot of the build up is getting ready for the first gas deliveries in April. Management has already shown they are pretty capable and are delivering early and under budget (unheard of!!). They have also promised not to raise anymore money for the current QLD projects so the market is pretty happy with them. I think the lastest dip was caused because the market wasn't expecting them to raise any funds at all in the short term - and then they sprung the raising for taking over SGL (As the CEO said - he only promised not to raise funds for the QLD projects - he didn't mention any further takeovers). The market seems to have realized the benefits of the takeover (SGL's biggest problem is lousy management and like I said - the market seems to like QGC's) so it bounced back pretty quickly.

All round good news for this one - I personally think we will nudge the $1 mark before the gas deliveries in April and I have been buying in anticipation.

BUT like I said - I'm VERY biased towards this stock so please do your own research!!!!!!!

[laurie]

malachii

I tend to agree with your view this is a long term hold for me also looking forward to the first dividend payment and I have been topping up on weakness :p:

cheers laurie

[ob1kenobi]

I agree with the last 2 posts. I got into this stock when it was $0-48 because my own research suggested it would go well over the next 12-18 months as things became more commercially viable. I did that last March and it has proven my research to be correct. It really highlights the need to do your own research and make up your own mind.

[malachii]

Interesting article in todays Australian on the CEO of QGC and the takeover of SGL.

malachii


THE AUSTRALIAN
BUSINESS
Gas exec is desperate and dateless
Cottee awaits a response to his bid, writes Glenda Korporaal

February 13, 2006

QUEENSLAND Gas chief executive Richard Cottee says he feels a little like his younger days at school dances, waiting to get a girl to agree to dance with him.

Having launched an unsolicited bid for Sydney Gas in late January, Cottee is awaiting a response from the company that is still coping with last year's senior management changes and working out how to repay $30 million in convertible notes due in coming months.

The rapidly growing Queensland Gas is expected to lodge its bidder's statement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission tomorrow.

If Cottee pulls off the surprise 2-for-1 script bid, he will be running a big player in the emerging market for coal seam methane gas in Australia.

Cottee has grand plans for the combined company to be able to supply both the gas and the electricity markets in southeast Queensland and NSW with strong links to power stations in southeast Queensland and NSW's Hunter Valley.

But, so far, Sydney Gas (which has seen off two chief executives and two chairmen in the past year, including former Olympics minister Michael Knight) has made no comment on the bid.

Sydney Gas executive director Stephen Kwik says the company is awaiting the bidder's statement before making a comment.

"I have been trying to ring (Sydney Gas chairman) Michael Norster to meet with him but he hasn't returned my calls," Cottee says. Sydney Gas currently has no chief executive, after chief executive and chairman Knight left in tumultuous circumstances late last year.

Knight called for an ASIC investigation into whether the company had changed hands without investors receiving a takeover bid.

The investigation was completed last month, with ASIC deciding to take no action.

Cottee spent last week in Sydney pitching to Sydney Gas shareholders, including Mulpha International, a company controlled by Lee Seng-Huang, son of Lee Ming Tee, which holds just under 10 per cent.

Mulpha insists that it has nothing to do with the controversial Lee Ming Tee, who was jailed for a year in November 2004 in Hong Kong for offences connected with his Allied Group of companies, after a long-running legal battle.

The outgoing Cottee, a fluent Japanese speaker who describes himself as a "reformed lawyer", is making a bid for a company once several times the size of Queensland Gas.

But a combination of Sydney Gas's problems and Queensland Gas's successes have put him in striking distance of a company he has coveted for some years.

In 2002, Cottee left the job as chief executive of the Queensland government-owned power company CS Energy, which has assets of almost $2 billion, to join the much smaller publicly listed Queensland Gas.

While the coal seam gas industry in Australia is still in its infancy, it gave the energetic Cottee, whose career includes stints with gas producer Santos and coal producer Oakbridge, the chance to get back into a more entrepreneurial world.

Cottee points out that he has taken Queensland Gas from a market capitalisation of about $15 million in 2002 to its current level of about $300 million.

He says his job when he arrived at Queensland Gas was to "get its house in order" -- including proving up its reserves and securing contracts for its gas -- but he is now in a position where he can start to look further afield.

Cottee says he has already teed up three major Queensland Gas shareholders to take $30 million worth of stock in the combined company to pay out the $30 million in convertible notes owned by Sydney Gas.

Cottee says he wants to replicate what he has done with Queensland Gas, where he has proved up reserves in the Surat Basin and has been involved with the establishment of a gas-fired power station at Chinchilla which can take its gas.

He sees a similar opportunity with Sydney Gas's interests in the Hunter Valley.

Having reserves and links with power stations in both the Surat Basin and the Hunter Valley, he says, would give the combined group access to supply at both ends of the NSW-Queensland electricity interconnector.

It could choose either to sell its gas directly to consumers or to power stations to meet electricity demand in either state.

The two companies are in very different situations. Queensland Gas has significantly boosted its proven reserves but is still looking for supply contracts.

It has proven and probable reserves of some 336 petajoules in Queensland -- more than 10 times the reserves of Sydney Gas in the Sydney Basin areas, which include the Hunter Valley and Camden.

Queensland Gas has 10-year minimum supply contracts of some 11.6 petajoules a year, with fertiliser company Incitec Pivot, Braemar Power and Cottee's former employer, CS Energy.

Sydney Gas has a larger contract with AGL, one of Australia's biggest energy retailers, to supply gas from its Camden project.

"Sydney Gas has the contracts but it doesn't have the proven reserves," Cottee says. "(If we win the bid) we will first and foremost help (Sydney Gas) prove up its reserves (at Camden) to satisfy the present contract."

Cottee, who learnt Japanese as an exchange student at high school, insists that he is "old and grey and boring", unlike some of the colourful characters involved in the small cap stocks in the Australian mining industry.

But others see him as a robust, outgoing personality. His PR advisers have suggested he tone things down for the more sedate Sydney institutional market.

Wilson HTM energy analyst Andrew Pedler says Cottee is regarded as a successful and energetic leader, having boosted Queensland Gas's business by bringing in a team of professionals in the industry whose skills are bearing fruit.

Cottee points out that he has come a long way since those awkward dances in his school days. He is now happily married with six children -- all of them, he points out cheerfully, with the same wife.

[laurie]

malachii
Thanks for posting the article much appreciated

cheers laurie

[ob1kenobi]

At close of trade on 22 Feb 2006, QGC broke through the $0-90 barrier to close at $0-91, up from $0-855 the previous day. It has this week announced an increase in its reserves and that it expects that fulfilling current commercial contracts will see it gain about 10% of the Queensland Gas Market. In addition, it has made an offer to take over Sydney Gas Ltd, a supplier of Gas to AGL. With the commercial contracts starting to kick in during April and a takeover bid on the table, it should not be a surprise to see it step up constantly to break the $0-90 barrier and is yet to be oversold, though it has nudged that barrier once or twice. The chart is attached.

[ob1kenobi]

Yes interesting article. I had already read it but thanks for putting it up.

[laurie]

T a k e o v e r s
P a n e l
MEDIA
RELEASE
No: 18/2006
Thursday, 23 February 2006
Sydney Gas Limited – Panel Receives Application
The Takeovers Panel advises that it has received an application from Sydney Gas
Limited (SGL), in relation to a takeover offer by Queensland Gas Company Limited
(QGC) for all the shares in SGL (Offer).
SGL’s application submits that the QGC bidder’s statement contains a number of
deficiencies. SGL submits that the deficiencies include:
• the prominence and significance which QGC has placed on QGC’s offer to
refinance the SGL convertible notes (which are redeemable on 1 April 2006 and
1 June 2006 (Funding Offer)) without disclosing what SGL considers is the
conditional and uncertain nature of that Funding Offer;
• the information supporting forward looking statements that QGC has made in
its bidder’s statement as to its future revenue;
• detail in relation to the debt facilities recently entered into by QGC, contracts
under negotiation, and the Chinchilla Power Station project.
SGL has sought a declaration of unacceptable circumstances, interim and final
orders.
SGL has sought an interim order that QGC delay the despatch of its bidder’s
statement to SGL shareholders until the alleged deficiencies in the bidder’s statement
have been corrected.
The Panel has not decided whether to conduct proceedings in relation to the
application and makes no comment on the merits of the application. It also notes that
it has not received submissions from the other parties to the application and it is,
therefore, unaware of their views.
The President of the Panel is appointing a sitting Panel to consider the application.
Nigel Morris
Director, Takeovers Panel
Level 47, 80 Collins Street
Melbourne, VIC 3000
Ph: +61 3 9655 3501
nigel.morris@takeovers.gov.au

cheers laurie

[malachii]

Yeah - interesting article (letter to takeover panel) - no surprise that management is trying to keep their job but I was surprised at the reaction of the market - they marked the price down initially by 5 cents and it closed down 4 cents. Seemed a bit extreme to me!!

malachii

[laurie]

Sydney Gas Limited (SGL) and it joint venture partner The Australian Gas Light Company (AGL) today released a production report for January 2006, that showed production was in-line with the high levels of output achieved from its jointly owned Camden Gas Project in recent months. The company said they deliver coal seam gas to AGL under a 10-year contract, which was expected to provide more than $200 million in revenue to SGL. Sydney Gas noted following a ramp up in production over the next three years, SGL expected the joint venture would be able to supply AGL with up to 14.5 Petajoules (“PJ”) of gas a year. CSG production from the Camden Project was currently at a rate of over 4PJ a year and was expected to increase “substantially” as the ramp-up program intensifies.

Arhh knew AGL had a finger in the pie! its now showing it's hand trying to convince SGL shareholders that their sp is worth more than what QGC is offering so why did they not make a bid for SGL!

cheers laurie

[laurie]

QUEENSLAND GAS COMPANY LIMITED
ABN 11 089 642 553
Level 11
307 Queen Street, Brisbane QLD 4000
GPO Box 3107, Brisbane QLD 4001
Tel: 07 3004 1000 Fax: 07 3012 8411
Website: www.qgc.com.au
Email: qgc@qgc.com.au
8 March 2006
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
POSSIBLE DELAY OF SGL OFFER
As a result of input from the Takeovers Panel, QGC has formed the view there could be a significant
delay in the closing date of its offer for all the shares of SGL.
QGC is concerned that the market is trading in shares of both QGC and SGL on a basis that does not
have regard to the practical consequence of any such delay. In the view of QGC, it now appears to be
quite likely that a defeating condition of the QGC offer could be triggered
For further information:
Richard Cottee
Managing Director
Queensland Gas Company
Telephone: 07 3004 1000
Fax : 07 3012 8411

Both QGC & SGL are in a trading halt

cheers laurie

[malachii]

Be interesting to see the release associated with the trading halt - at the moment I see this as a potential buying opportunity but will wait to see the announcement (have to anyway because of the halt!!)

Please Note: I OWN SHARES IN THIS COMPANY - PLEASE DO OWN RESEARCH!!!

malachii

[Rasman]

If anything I'm thinking of dumping my SGL shares and buying into QGC avoiding the damn takeover ****e. In my mind even 76c for QGC is cheap.

[laurie]

I hope there are other SGL holders like you Rasman! I hold QGC and I don't buy shares because one's better than the another I thought of buying SGL but management at SGL lost me! they had the gas and stuff it up big time and you are spot on mate if this fails B&B will pick up a bargin and who losses out the small man QGC offered a lifeline to SGL and I think their patience is being tested I'm going to the SGL meeting as a guest to see what happens

cheers laurie

[Rasman]

laurie - Stick in a word on my behalf! And make it a damn rude, nasty word!

[laurie]

QUEENSLAND GAS COMPANY LIMITED
ABN 11 089 642 553
Level 11
307 Queen Street, Brisbane QLD 4000
GPO Box 3107, Brisbane QLD 4001
Tel: 07 3004 1000 Fax: 07 3012 8411
Website: www.qgc.com.au
Email: qgc@qgc.com.au
QUEENSLAND GAS COMPANY
Tuesday, 11 April 2006
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
QGC bid will not be varied to include proposed New SGL shares and convertible
notes
QGC today confirmed that its takeover bid for SGL does not and will not include New
Shares that would be issued under the SGL proposed Rights Issue or Convertible
Notes issue to Babcock & Brown.
QGC’s Managing Director, Richard Cottee said, “On a fully diluted basis, the proposed
rights issue and convertible note issue would increase the overall shares issued in
SGL by almost 47%.
“This SGL proposal is potentially highly dilutive to the interests of SGL’s existing
shareholders.
“To suggest that QGC may vary its bid to include these shares is just not sensible – it
would result in a substantial dilution to QGC’s existing shareholders. The QGC bid
does not, and will not, extend to these New Shares”, Mr Cottee said.
- Ends -
Media contact:
Cannings
Martin Debelle 0409 911 189
Sarah Hudson 0424 034 059
Mr Richard Cottee
Managing Director
Queensland Gas Company Limited
Telephone: 07) 3004 1000
Fax: 07) 3012 8411
Email: qgc@qgc.com.au
Website: www.qgc.com.au

On yah Richard :p:

cheers laurie

[Out Too Soon]

And you can put in another nasty word for me too.
Us small investors are hurting thanks to a few large shareholders who obviously dont have our best interests at heart. :mad:

[laurie]

SGL directors have instructed shareholders to reject QGC offer!

cheers laurie

[malachii]

****WARNING - PLEASE NOTE I OWN SHARES IN QGC****

I have to say I have been surprised at SGL's response to the takeover offer. Not only have they rejected it (normal when your trying to keep your job) but they have basically given control of the company to someone else?????? I considered buying SGL shares as a cheap way into getting more QGC a while ago but wont touch them now just in case the takeover doesn't happen. If it falls through - you watch what happens to SGL's share price!!

If anything I agree with Rasman and think this is a great buying opportunity (I've put the extra money I was going to use to buy SGL into QGC). With their first commercial gas delivery starting very soon I think this is a low point in the share price. Once this takeover thing settles one way or another I think you'll see the price start marching up again.

****WARNING - PLEASE NOTE I OWN SHARES IN QGC****

[noirua]

QGC have expanded well under Mr Richard Cottee, MD, he explains the " Upcoming Excellence in Upstream Technology ", and not forgetting his resume first - he has done well: http://www.brr.com.au/event/QGC/465/12499

[Joe Blow]

QGC in trading halt pending an announcement. Anyone have any idea what this could be about? They have been releasing a lot of positive announcements recently so hopefully it is good news.

[laurie]

1.SPP
2.JV
3.Takeover
4.None Of The Above


cheers laurie

[noirua]

QGC in trading halt pending an announcement. Anyone have any idea what this could be about? They have been releasing a lot of positive announcements recently so hopefully it is good news.

Could possibly be a revised bid for Sydney Gas.

[TjamesX]

Did anyone bother to read the announcment :eek7:

"pending a release from the company concerning an equity raising"

I'd say thats neutral - not good or bad, depends what they need the money for.

TJ

[laurie]

Did anyone bother to read the announcment

Well it's normally not placed on the initial announcement as most people including myself assume these pages are standard trading halt forms so if this was the case as it was then why not announce the full reason then :2twocents

cheers laurie

[RichKid]

Here's an explanation for the equity raising: http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/QGC-aims-to-expand-gas-field-development/2006/08/04/1154198324487.html

[TjamesX]

What happened today that was good for QGC?

say bye bye to PNG....

TJ

[Dukey]

Wow - QGC have been jumping lately !! (but so quiet on the forums??)

Just touch the $1.00 milestone today :D :D Gotta love these guys!

Can anyone see any negative issues going forward?? I certainly can`t!!

-dukey

[GreatPig]

Up over 9% yesterday and another 23% today. This bird has wings!

A pity I sold out of them some time ago...

GP

[3 veiws of a secret]

Up over 9% yesterday and another 23% today. This bird has wings!

A pity I sold out of them some time ago...

GP

Santos are at the revolving doors downstairs, looks like QGC is being swallowed up! - I bet shareholders with SGL must be feeling PIG SICK! :iagree:

[3 veiws of a secret]

Actually no point having my 10K shares parked on 99 cents, looks like I missed the turtle race. :(

[nioka]

There seems to be a connection between the trading in AOE and QGC today. Any comments?

[TjamesX]

There seems to be a connection between the trading in AOE and QGC today. Any comments?

QGC and AOE are both coal seam gas (natural gas) companies. They are the two with the largest uncontracted gas reverves on the east coast of aus.

AOE has followed QGC because people are speculating that a larger player will take also them over (but QGC has the better assets......)

TJ

[Dukey]

Mmmm :D happy days for me & QGC. Wish i was in for 100k shares instead of my measly portion - but thats easily said in hindsight.

How about the offer?? What do you think....The current offer from santos is $1.26 per QGC share.
Todays close for QGC was 1.37 !! Which makes me think many folks are aware of the potential future value of QGC.

As tempting as $1.37 or even 1.26 is - my gut says this ones a keeper. The next 1-2 yrs should be nice to QGC - but then - what do i know?? They just seem to have great assets and great management.

Any opinions from shareholders and watchers??
Dukey in Nihon

[3 veiws of a secret]

sorry guys but is there a possibilty of ALL /AGL getting involved here ? Speculation yes -but the synergies are all in the mix. :nuts:

[laurie]

This is happening because Santos pulled out of the PNG pipeline! and taking over QGC is far cheaper so assume the pipeline fron PNG is finished the big winner is Peter Costello via ATO[CGT urghh] not many holders holding longer that a year :2twocents

cheers laurie

[chris1983]

QGC and AOE are both coal seam gas (natural gas) companies. They are the two with the largest uncontracted gas reverves on the east coast of aus.

AOE has followed QGC because people are speculating that a larger player will take also them over (but QGC has the better assets......)

TJ

Well to date QGC has performed better. Evident in the SP. But Arrow are a lot cheaper than Queensland Gas atm and have great assets. IMO the growth into India is important. Powerhouse economy where Gas is quite expensive. Awarded 3/4 of the best blocks in the recent CBM licenses. See below. They have a lot of Gas to develop in their recent expansion into India.

"Arrow Energy said it won three blocks in north-eastern India, where a fast growing economy and high gas prices "could underwrite significant revenue generation for the company".

Arrow’s equity share of 35% to 40% of the blocks was won as part of a bidding consortium with India's Gail, Swedish infrastructure company Energy Infrastructure Group and Indian power giant Tata Power.

The Raj Mahal block in the state of Jharkhand has an estimated resource of 5.5 trillion cubic feet with the other blocks in the state of Chattisgarh having estimated resources of 4.2 Tcf and 1.9 Tcf, respectively.

Chief executive Nick Davies said: "The award of these blocks is the first step in Arrow’s strategy to expand internationally and meant future growth would not be constrained within the domestic gas market."

Dont forget they have one of the largest onshore Gasfields in Australia. See below.

"Reserve certifiers Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc. (NSAI) of Dallas, Texas have confirmed a large reserves base at the Tipton West field with the certification resulting in 1P, 2P and 3P reserves of 25 PJ, 124 PJ and 2104 PJ respectively, making it potentially one of Australia’s largest onshore gas fields."

IMO arrow will catch up to QGC's share price.

[Dukey]

I've just had a look at AOE. Wish i got in there a month or more ago :banghead: . But looks to have plenty of potential upside with Tipton and India.
AOE　is definitely on my wish list now - along with more ADI who are currently drilling the potentially huge sugarloaf gasfield in US.
I'd bettor go sell some duds :o and put the cash where it will grow.

Go GAS Go !!!!!!!!!!!

[laurie]

My view is this deal with STO will not go through!! toooo much growth potential to give it away it's up to the directors who hold the aces as a matter of fact almost 38% :2twocents

cheers laurie

[x2rider]

hi folks

It would of been quite nice nice to have been director Francis Connelly on the 4th who acquired just over 16,000 shares
I wonder if that was before or after the announcement
Cheers Martin

[nioka]

There seems to be a connection between the trading in AOE and QGC today. Any comments?
The answer came today with the news of a $250,000,000 Queensland pipeline which will help both market a lot of gas. Add India and AOE has a lot of room to go. That's my humble opinion for what it is worth.

[Dukey]

G'day all. - all quiet on the QGC thread front!! :confused:

QGC sp sitting around $1.44 today so far amid some media specualtion about a possibly bidding war for QGC, with AFL and Origen energy.....
And we all hope that happens !! :D :eek: dont we!!

But - where will it end - share price wise??
What do you think will be the winning bid price - if any??

I guess the markets expects a bid greater than todays price - so is $1.5 or $1.6 realistic - or maybe more??? Could it possibly get as high as $2 ??? What do you guys reckon??

(Obviously any speculations I or others make on this should be taken as just that - SPECULATION!!) :eek7:

[chops_a_must]

QGC has been allowed extra time to independently certify its gas reserves. The markets seem to like this news, the board is obviously confident in the value of the company, and the share price is up at about 2.5% on a losing day. Not bad.

It will be interesting what happens to this one in another few weeks. If better than expected reserve results spark a bidding war thought about some time ago.

[Dukey]

Somehow I get the feeling from the ACCC concerns statement (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/getAnnPdf%28%27/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=%27,%20%2700660863%27 ,%20%27Announcement%27%29;return%20false;) that the Santos T/O bid could be dead in the water - though it's early days yet.
They say there maybe competition issues with Santos potentially controlling so much gas in Qld. QGC are playing up to this as well - noting in this release (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/getAnnPdf%28%27/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=%27,%20%2700662411%27 ,%20%27Announcement%27%29;return%20false;) that their gas will only increase competition in the Qld market IF it is developed and sold - rather than 'aquired (eg. by Santos) & warehoused'.

But the Santos bid seems to have kicked QGC management into high gear as far as trying to prove the value of QGC goes - so that not a bad thing.

Maybe someone else will have a shot??

[chops_a_must]

Another big announcement today. Proven reserves up 2 thirds.

[Raging Bull]

I bought into this stock last year in Oct for 0.46 and sold a couple of weeks ago at 1.46.. super happy obviously.

I would have stayed in but my concern is that the trading leading up to the take over bid (Aug & Sep) was mainly fuelled by Santos. Since the big jump after the take over bid the price has been hovering.. making me think the situation is currently 'artificial'.

My concern is that if the bid doesn't go through there will be a correction back down to the $1 mark..

Any thoughts on this? I am just starting out so any advice about anything I am missing in my reasoning would be appreciated..

cheers
RB

[Dukey]

Bull, you could be right - they may drop back a bit if Santos fails - but with recent reserves increases etc, I think any retracement would be very temporary.

No doubt 1.46 was a pretty good exit - well done! - and it may take a while to get back there, but the board and what they've done with 1st class assets have impressed me so I'm long term bottom shelf on QGC now. That's assuming nothing happens to change my mind!!

[Raging Bull]

Hi Dukey,

Santos have extended the offer to just before Christmas.. so more of the waiting game.. I do thing QGC is very strong and awesome for a long term prospect..

Personally I don't think the Santos offer will go through. If this causes a decent correction I'll buy back in...

cheers
RB

[chops_a_must]

I do thing QGC is very strong and awesome for a long term prospect..

Personally I don't think the Santos offer will go through. If this causes a decent correction I'll buy back in...

cheers
RB
I don't think it will cause a correction. The reserves that Santos had said did not exist, have now been independentally verified, they do exist. So we know the SP wont go below $1.26. Which is what Santos had valued it at without the argued reserves (unforeseen events aside). Certainly an interesting stock anyway.

[laurie]

I am now convinced Santos have stupid people running it the first mistake was waiting too long to make a offer for QGC they should have got in before the entitlement and they were hoping shareholders would take a quick 88% profit :2twocents

cheers laurie

[chops_a_must]

I am now convinced Santos have stupid people running it the first mistake was waiting too long to make a offer for QGC they should have got in before the entitlement and they were hoping shareholders would take a quick 88% profit :2twocents

cheers laurie
Yeah, now AGL are taking more than a 25% share in QGC, valuing QGC's share price at $1.44, with board support.

[chops_a_must]

I'm not happy with myself right now. I was looking at the chart of QGC yesterday and everything started screaming, "Buy! Buy!" and I didn't. Could be worse, I could be holding less than what I do.

[Dukey]

Wow. STO don't give up do they!!
What are their chances of success with other major shareholders like AGL to contend with? I'd still give 'em buckleys.
I can't complain - I had figured they'd back out and QGC would stay around 1.35 for a while - but hey - 17% in a day.... :D:D

[chops_a_must]

Wow. STO don't give up do they!!
What are their chances of success with other major shareholders like AGL to contend with? I'd still give 'em buckleys.
I can't complain - I had figured they'd back out and QGC would stay around 1.35 for a while - but hey - 17% in a day.... :D:D
Now it makes it really hard for shareholders to accept the AGL offer. As they say, watch this space...

[laurie]

Santos $1.30/share plus 1:1 in new spin off.

cheers laurie

[Dukey]

How about the offer?
Seems to me like a complicated arrangement STO is proposing. Makes it hard to judge the comparative merits against AGL proposal.
Why wouldn`t thay want to take ALL of QGC?? Gotta say I`m suspicious of STO motives there. :sly:

Any comments?

[TheAbyss]

IMO CEO Mr Cottee is an explorer at heart and Santos are scratching his itch by offering the start up explorer arm for him to realise his vision for the other prospects in the GGC stable. That will be a powerful incentive for him to support the new offer.

The share holders win because they get good value at $1.30 plus 1:1 shares in the exploration arm and with the visionary responsible (CEO Cottee) for the fantastic growth experienced so far remaining at the helm. That is a critical component in my view. Value is also very dependent on the proposed 50c value of the "new QGC" standing up under evaluation.

My question is do we get in for more shares on the prospect of the 1.80 valuation by Santos being trumped with a revised offer by the other bidder, AGL?


I hold QGC if you couldnt tell :)

[Dukey]

Like your idea Abyss. Expl/Devel spin off does seem like a nice carrot.

Positives - Potentially we shareholders could cash in on this takeover, then cash in again a year or 2 down the track when the spin-off QGC has grown like the first one - and another takeover happens.

Negatives - New QGC would have less income and market clout. But possibly sharper exploration upside.

Dunno - just trying to brainstorm possibilities - could be way off track...???

[TheAbyss]

The potential downside is they could price themselves out of the market and Santos could go away. At worst they could retreat back to the AGL SP valuation. Which isnt to bad either. All is well in my view.

[laurie]

Well you are all forgetting one thing CGT.....so its Peter Costello laughing all the way to the bank and the new spin off would you have to hold for another 12 months or is it deemed to be an extension of the existing QGC for CGT purpose :2twocents

cheers laurie

[TheAbyss]

Take a look at the depth on QGC.

Top 10 = 263 buyers after a total of 2,159,584 units from a total of 42 sellers looking to sell 804,330 units.

Thoughts?

[justjohn]

Santos is sitting by awaiting a ACCC decision before upping the ante on QGC also there is a proposed share by -back of up to 12.5% which is starting to stir up a bit of interest in QGC. Anyway DYOR :p:

[TjamesX]

Watch for it to fall 10-20% on open.... ACCC has knocked back Santos' takeover bid...

Hedge funds won't like a one horse race

[gunditrader]

New takeover offer out on QGC @ 1.51 by TCW
Will AGL lift its offer to miss out on this gas play

[TheAbyss]

TCW offer is a big challenge for AGL. AGl need to reevaluate if they want part of QGC. First the Santos offer now TCW both +$1.50 valuations. The ACCC wont stop this one so they AGL will need to revise or leave the table.

Hope you increased your holding this morning at the silly prices they were at. I topped up at $1.30

[Dukey]

Nice to see something green in a sea of RED today!!! :)

Dunno anything about TCW - apart from　whats in the offer statement.
They sound like a global player - does anybody have the lowdown on this mob??

[TheAbyss]

Given the rest of my portfolio is a sea of red I will spend tonight reading up on TCW.

[Dukey]

A little background on TCW`s energy & Infrastructure group.

http://www.acore.org/pdfs/013_Daly_Brian.pdf

[laurie]

But they said we can have script instead of cash so where are they listed :confused:

cheers laurie

[TheAbyss]

A day in the life of a QGC shareholder -

Earlier today - QGC - Reject US bid
Now - AGL revised offer bid is now $1.60 per share :cool:
Plus a tender buy back at $1.52 if you want it
Also they re affirmed their reserves upgrade from yesterday

QGC will look after its shareholders in my opinion.

[chops_a_must]

A day in the life of a QGC shareholder -

Earlier today - QGC - Reject US bid
Now - AGL revised offer bid is now $1.60 per share :cool:
Plus a tender buy back at $1.52 if you want it
Also they re affirmed their reserves upgrade from yesterday

QGC will look after its shareholders in my opinion.
It just seemed strange to me that they were prepared to accept a bid of 1.44 over a bid of 1.51+. Why are they so keen on AGL regardless of other bids? It must be asked.

[Dukey]

Maybe they are wary of international control/influence??

- just a thought.

[Aussiejeff]

It just seemed strange to me that they were prepared to accept a bid of 1.44 over a bid of 1.51+. Why are they so keen on AGL regardless of other bids? It must be asked.

Maybe AGL's guaranteed 20 year supply contract as part of the deal is an attraction in itself?

AJ

[TheAbyss]

It just seemed strange to me that they were prepared to accept a bid of 1.44 over a bid of 1.51+. Why are they so keen on AGL regardless of other bids? It must be asked.

The AGL offer is for 27.5% of QGC which gives the current board a level of autonomy that allows them to continue their current projects without to much interference. The Santos and TWS offers were both full TO's.

That is why the Santos "New QGC" was a winner if allowed to proceed by the ACCC. The AGL offer gives the board what they want plus increases value for shareholders and the company in addition to guaranteeing a market for their product.

All my own opinion based on being a holder for a few years now.

[Dukey]

Abyss: (sorry my quote button is playing up)...

It appears from the directors address at the EGM (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=QGC)that this (abyss's previous post) is pretty much the case and it makes sense the way they put it.
Personally - I would rather keep a healthy stake in QGC cause I think they will produce the goods for some time to come and we shareholders will reap the benefits long into the future. If TCW took the lot - we would make a quick buck but miss out on the bigger future $$$ (IMHO). Of course we can still sell anytime if need be...

- dukey.

[TheAbyss]

Abyss: (sorry my quote button is playing up)...

It appears from the directors address at the EGM (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=QGC)that this (abyss's previous post) is pretty much the case and it makes sense the way they put it.
Personally - I would rather keep a healthy stake in QGC cause I think they will produce the goods for some time to come and we shareholders will reap the benefits long into the future. If TCW took the lot - we would make a quick buck but miss out on the bigger future $$$ (IMHO). Of course we can still sell anytime if need be...

- dukey.

I agree 100% Dukey. So long as Richard Cottee is at the helm i am not even considering selling.

[chops_a_must]

Personally - I would rather keep a healthy stake in QGC cause I think they will produce the goods for some time to come and we shareholders will reap the benefits long into the future. If TCW took the lot - we would make a quick buck but miss out on the bigger future $$$ (IMHO). Of course we can still sell anytime if need be...

- dukey.
Agreed.

But it does put somewhat of a ceiling on the SP in the short term. (Not that this isn't a bad thing at the moment, because it wont drop much further than what it is at the moment for the same reasons.)

[TheAbyss]

Agreed.

But it does put somewhat of a ceiling on the SP in the short term. (Not that this isn't a bad thing at the moment, because it wont drop much further than what it is at the moment for the same reasons.)

I prefer the term" A new floor"

[Hal]

Apologies for newbie question, but does anyone have an opinion on whether the QGC off mkt buy back is attractive, or is there not enough info released as yet?

Cheers

[TheAbyss]

At $1.52 it would be near enough to selling on market. AGL paid $1.60 a share for their 27.5%. Unless you need the money or the market conditions are making you nervous I would be holding onto QGC as they have a lot more reserves to prove up and sell so their price can only go up over the next 24 months unless something catostrophic eventuates.

There are some other CSG stocks looking goood at the moment also such as Arrow who are going head to head with QGC on the sp and 2p (proved and probable) fronts.

IMO and DYOR. I hold QGC.

[Hal]

Cheers mate, think i'll hold.

[Dukey]

Yeah - my feeling is that there should be more up than down for QGC after the buyback is finished. I'm gonna wait until then and see what happens. At some stage I definitely want a piece of Arrow as well - wish I had them 6 months ago!! - I may well end up swapping some $$ out of QGC to diversify into AOE - but not just yet.

Though an important questions is... which one will grow fastest from here??

[chops_a_must]

Yeah - my feeling is that there should be more up than down for QGC after the buyback is finished. I'm gonna wait until then and see what happens. At some stage I definitely want a piece of Arrow as well - wish I had them 6 months ago!! - I may well end up swapping some $$ out of QGC to diversify into AOE - but not just yet.

Though an important questions is... which one will grow fastest from here??
I see little point in being in QGC from here. Like I was saying above, I was concerned about this deal putting a cap on the share price, and it seems those concerns were well founded. AOE definitely has better growth prospects from here on. Focussing on massive farm in deals rather than blocking stakes, has allowed them to devote full energy to prospective areas, rather than concentrating more on mature fields.

There are much better stocks in this sector than QGC, and much more undervalued also (with no upside capping). I'll be looking to exit QGC before long and putting the resources into the stocks in this sector with much more upside potential.

[Dukey]

Yeah Chops - I see where you are coming from - was just about to post a link to your post on smaller CSM-ers on the potential breakouts thread (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=134585&postcount=316).

Long term I'm sure QGC will be a winner, but maybe others will grow faster in the short term. MEL and ESG are definitely worth a look and I shall!!:) Thanks for drawing attention to them....

[laurie]

I think the answer is really simple who has their eggs in one basket and who has diversification.................AOE :2twocents

cheers laurie

[Dukey]

Quiet thread lately - but QGC up to close on 1.64 today. Seems to be a response to some nice - though fairly standard for QGC - drilling news.
Also the end of the buyback period if I'm not mistaken.
Sold some on todays rise in order to diversify a bit - but still in for the long haul..........
go QGC...arigatou..:bier:..you have been so good to me..:D

[Tech_king]

These have been a winner in my portfolio too! I may sell them soon though as I am going to need the capital for a deposit on a house.

[laurie]

These have been a winner in my portfolio too! I may sell them soon though as I am going to need the capital for a deposit on a house.

Pity about CGT :rolleyes:

cheers laurie

[Dukey]

Nice day for QGC too, to close on all time high of $1.80.
Not sure why really - todays announcement was just the regular drilling success:p: - nothing too surprising but I guess it all adds up. More GAS in the tank for QGC so to speak. Happy days...

[TheAbyss]

No apparent news however it is always nice to see growth in the portfolio isnt it Dukey?

I wont be selling for a very long time. QGC are well managed and have yet to make a bad decision IMO.

They have enough gas exploration projects in the works to ensure SP growth for quite a while yet plus any political uncertainty regarding energy is a positive for all CSG producers hence the growth in this area. Dividends should also start to flow in soon.

[chops_a_must]

I wont be selling for a very long time. QGC are well managed and have yet to make a bad decision IMO.

I think the blocking stake was a joke. Was way too low and to me said that management are interested with specific alignments rather than shareholder returns.

Still, I'm still holding as there is no reason to sell. But I certainly do have a love hate relationship with this stock...

[TheAbyss]

i thought the alignment with AGL was a good one in that they fought off Santos which would have slowed down the exploration arm of the business. Santos were just looking to shore some reserves for themselves in my view. The AGL alliance forced Santos to come up with a revised offer or leave the table. The revised Santos offer allowed QGC to continue with the exploration and development of QGC which is what caused AGL to up their offer yet only obtain a 25% stake of QGC. This has since served to stake a new floor for the SP. Onward and upward in my view.

[Dukey]

What?! - nothing on my old faithful QGC today??...
only up a measly 8+% (21c) on news of 260$M accelerated expansion plans.
This share just keeps surprising... I thought it might have run out of steam back around $1.70. Just as well I didn't sell all of them!!
:bonk:

[laurie]

Just think what those SGL shareholders must be thinking now :banghead: :D

cheers laurie

[malachii]

Couldn't believe it when SGL turned QGC down and got MBL involved. Showed to me the level of "self interest" the board had. Talk about looking after their own jobs and not the company or shareholders interest!

malachii

[TheAbyss]

Have to mention my all time favourite stock, QGC.

QGC has been stellar in the last few months as has AOE. QGC and AOE do have a very similar trend line.

My concern is that AOE hit $3 and retreated a few weeks ago and has hovered around the $2.90 area. Will QGC now consolidate at $2.90 or run to $3.00 and then retreat? I have attached a chart comparing the two and their similarities are almost mirror like.

Any thoughts?

Is it possible that the fact that AOE have international influences causing their recent cool down?

[malachii]

It closed at the $3.00 yesterday -seems to be holding it this morning but the rest of the week I guess will be the test to see it it bounces up from this point or down!

pepptalk

[malachii]

Nice announcement in the last half hour of trading - didn't seem to make much difference to price although it closed slightly higher at $3.02. Be interesting to see if the market pays more attention to this tomorrow!

malachii

[TheAbyss]

The market would have to like the announcement. QGC supplying CSM Gas to their partner, Origin Energy who are on selling to Rio Tinto. Guess who will get to sell CSM onto Rio for the Gladstone refinery expansion announced this week? Have to be worth some mileage on the SP.

Quote from todays courier mail (there is no mention where origin is getting their CSM from howevr QGC will be a player)

" Rio Tinto has made some sort of gesture to the anti-carbon hysteria. It's switching the refinery to a new gas-fired co-generation facility. Origin is going to supply coal seam gas.

Now coal seam gas might generate less carbon than coal. But it still generates a heap of carbon"

Full story here http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22020853-3122,00.html

QGC will ride this one and have a lot more 2p & 3p reserves to tap into for Rio and other buyers. Incitec came on line last week and will ramp up their purchasing from QGC according to the press announcement released by QGC last week.

A lot of mileage left in this one but i am biased as this was my first ever share purchase back in 2004 and still holding.

[malachii]

I thought the market under-reacted a little to the late announcement yesterday. Good to see a nice finish today at $3.19. Hopefully this should see it consolidate above the $3.00 mark and not bounce off it like AOE.

malachii

[TheAbyss]

Certainly got through the phsycological $3 barrier with style. Hard to see QGC doing anything other than consolidating and growing for a while yet barring something catostrophic happening based on their reserves and exploration projects.

[malachii]

Any ideas for the price coming back so far - was it a classic "friday afternoon dump" after I climbing up so much this week or is there something a bit more sinister behind it???

I'm favoring the former at the moment but am keeping my eyes on it this week!

malachii

[kennas]

It's difficult to say too much about this chart wise because there's only a couple of trend lines, support and resistance, and no obvious patterns. What support there is, is shown and it might consolidate around these levels. Has run away hard from the 200 d ma, which is always a concern, but there are plenty of stocks that can do this before consolidating a little before setting a new trend line. Eventually stocks usually find there way back to that line. The indicators I have on this chart are bearish with momentum down for short term, but these lagging indicators can swing around quick. It depends on your trading plan, but if I had have got in early I would have been setting trailing stops on the way, and reinvesting on further breakouts. I don't think it's possible to compare to AOE just on the chart, they're travelling their own path. :2twocents

[TheAbyss]

Thanks for the analysis Kennas.

Interesting that despite the comparitive trend line with AOE you are of the opinion they are on their own paths. Goes to show how little i know as i thought they were almost exact replicas. Bow to your judgement as i have no idea about TA. Thanks for the input.

Bit late for the trailing stops for me so i guess i will continue to hold and stop looking at them for a while. Have been free carrying for a few years now so any short term fluctuation isnt a real downer although upwards and onwards is the preference.

[TheAbyss]

Another positive announcement today for QGC. AGL has opened the door for QGC to sell into the entire eastern seaboard. You can see why AGL dispensed with the pipeling to PNG as Qld is a lot closer and a more stable environment to opertate out of.

ASX release below .

QGC Welcomes New Interstate Gas Pipeline Link

Queensland Gas Company (QGC) welcomes today's announcement by Epic and AGL
that a new gas pipeline through Moomba will be constructed, linking the pipeline systems
of Queensland and the southern states.

"With a marketing agreement already in place between QGC and AGL, it will open up
opportunities for QGC to sell coal seam gas (CSG) into the higher priced southern
markets", QGC Managing Director Richard Cottee said today.

"This link between the two systems will mark the commencement of a truly national gas
market; and in the case of QGC, this will provide enhanced opportunities to further
develop the Undulla Nose near Chinchilla", Mr Cottee said.

"Further infrastructure enhancement is bound to follow as the merits of clean and efficient
natural gas becomes more widely recognised - and this will be a natural consequence of
the realisation that action must be taken to contain greenhouse gas emissions," Mr Cottee
said.

"QGC is ideally positioned to take full advantage of these exciting developments through
the development of its untapped gas reserves and through its marketing agreement with
AGL. There is no doubt that Queensland coal seam gas will make up the bulk of the
shortfall on the Australian eastern seaboard likely through 2010 to 2012 through the
abandonment of PNG gas pipeline proposal; and I am confident that QGC will be in the
forefront of the beneficiaries", Mr Cottee said.

[kennas]

Thanks for the analysis Kennas. Interesting that despite the comparitive trend line with AOE you are of the opinion they are on their own paths. Goes to show how little i know as i thought they were almost exact replicas. Hmmm, reviewing this they are more similar than I first thought. Must have had a few sherberts under the belt. QCGs rise has been obviously sharper however, and would be subject to a sharper correction perhaps. Might have already had that now, looks to have bounced well, and more convincingly than AOE which still looks vulnerable IMO.

[Dutchy3]

Hmm ... reasonable pattern and now a sharp move through it ... ought to be a reasonable trade ...

[Dukey]

Well Dutchy you'd be happy enough if you'd bought in I imagine!!
Its a quiet thread - but QGC charging recently to $3.09 today - pushing towards all time highs - in response to news regarding AGL's agrreement to purchase 66% of output from the 130MW condamine power plant (CSM GAS) currently under construction by QGC.
Volume nothing spectacular - but maybe that just means few sellers!?

Many Coal seamers are looking the goods again actually
- AOE pushing towards $3.
- PES - sp rising with recent drill success and new tenements.
- ESG - maybe starting a run with regarding spinoff company.

All in all a very nice day for energy stocks :D:D

[Dutchy3]

Hi Duke

3.2 - 3.3 looking for a breech of this price and the stock might register into blue sky ... Volumes OK but would expect it to average higher if the weekly resistance can be taken out

[malachii]

Well - finally broke above the $3.30 mark (closed $3.35) with OK volumes. Now it's in blue sky territory it'll be interesting to see where this ends its run.

malachii

[Dukey]

Well - finally broke above the $3.30 mark (closed $3.35) with OK volumes. Now it's in blue sky territory it'll be interesting to see where this ends its run.

malachii

Yep - she's really opening up a gap over AOE now - they've been tracking closely for so long now....

Interesting goings on pre-trade today...
there were 3 orders in - total of about 12k shares - at $3.69!! More than 20c above yesterdays close....now these orders were removed:rolleyes::rolleyes: sometime just before first QGC trade for the day. QGC opened at $3.50...

Now I've seen this kind of thing regularly with a number of stocks and recently with QGC.... ie High bids placed in pre-trade - then withdrawn before trading starts.

Would anyone care to comment... is this attempted manipulation?? Or just idiots at work??

Anyway ... it's no reflection on the quality of the share - stunning steady performance over years... gotta love QGC. Still my best share:D

[chops_a_must]

Yep - she's really opening up a gap over AOE now - they've been tracking closely for so long now....

Interesting goings on pre-trade today...
there were 3 orders in - total of about 12k shares - at $3.69!! More than 20c above yesterdays close....now these orders were removed:rolleyes::rolleyes: sometime just before first QGC trade for the day. QGC opened at $3.50...

Now I've seen this kind of thing regularly with a number of stocks and recently with QGC.... ie High bids placed in pre-trade - then withdrawn before trading starts.

Would anyone care to comment... is this attempted manipulation?? Or just idiots at work??

Anyway ... it's no reflection on the quality of the share - stunning steady performance over years... gotta love QGC. Still my best share:D

Had another stab at this at the start of the week, about 3.15. Just inundated with these trades at the moment. I have the breakout target somewhere between 3.70 and $4.

AS you know Dukey, I treat these CSM shares as if they were my children (if I had any, Lol!) For whatever reason, the market seems to like QGC slightly moreso than AOE, but I am a big fan of both. Will be interesting to see if the other players follow QGC. MEL has been going nuts also.

[Tysonboss1]

Hi All,

I have researching the QGC - Queensland Gas Company for a little while now.

Seems to me this company has some fantastic assets and a good platform for growth in an industry that I think will have alot of growth in the coming years.

Has anyone else got any thoughts on this company.

Basically it is a producer with massive reserves of Coal seam methane gas.

Coal seam methane is used in much the same way the our dwindling supply of natural gas is used, they are feeding the gas into the grid and are also building a 140MW power plant in partnership with the ANZ bank which they will feed with there own gas.

with some big issues coming into the future suchas Peaking oil supply and global warming I think that gas producers should do well.

[Smurf1976]

Hi All,

I have researching the QGC - Queensland Gas Company for a little while now.

Seems to me this company has some fantastic assets and a good platform for growth in an industry that I think will have alot of growth in the coming years.

Has anyone else got any thoughts on this company.

Basically it is a producer with massive reserves of Coal seam methane gas.

Coal seam methane is used in much the same way the our dwindling supply of natural gas is used, they are feeding the gas into the grid and are also building a 140MW power plant in partnership with the ANZ bank which they will feed with there own gas.

with some big issues coming into the future suchas Peaking oil supply and global warming I think that gas producers should do well.
Another one to add to the list is what appears to be the imminent formation of a global gas cartel. It's likely to be similar to OPEC but with a greater share of both gas reserves and production than OPEC has with oil.

The purpose, of course, is to represent the interests of gas producers. That is, higher prices.

Australian gas is already seriously undervalued. It's cheaper than the export coal price which is ridiculous. Premium resources don't sell at a discount to lower grade resources for long. Add in the gas cartel and there's a lot of upside potential in Aussie gas prices.

[laurie]

One of the very few shares that held it's head high during the market melt down QGC use to play second fiddle to AOE for a while but it's strength has shone through it keept the sharks away for me re:margin load :D

cheers laurie

[Tysonboss1]

Are either AOE or QGC paying dividends yet,

AOE seems to be a bargin at the moment, and I like the facvt that it has international exposure.

[laurie]

TRADING HALT sorry unable to copy announcement on the ASX site :confused:

cheers laurie

[grace]

TH - Board considering transactions...........could be looking at another company? Just a thought......

[laurie]

Eastern Star Gas could fit in with their plans to tap further resources and is priced right, unless they have bigger targets in their sights hey they may try SGL again :D

cheers laurie

[grace]

UK's BG Group has taken a 20% stake in QGC ($596 million). Trying to post a link but it didn't work.

[grace]

UK's BG Group has taken a 20% stake in QGC ($596 million). Trying to post a link but it didn't work.

http://www.bg-group.com/media/archive_2008/020108-sx.htm

One of the many stories on it!....................................Should be good for QGC holders IMO.

[TheAbyss]

Are either AOE or QGC paying dividends yet,

AOE seems to be a bargin at the moment, and I like the facvt that it has international exposure.

FYI - I emailed QGC last week asking when we can expect to start receiving dividends. Response below. Would prefer to receive dividends earlier than 2 years however still a very happy older.

IMO - AOE are now not in the same race with QGC. Suitors are knocking on QGC's door regularly. The top 20 have a higher percentage of ownership and are increasing their stake at every opportunity. My gut tells me that there will be another buy back in the mid term.

One of the positives from the BG release was that there looks like there could be an alliance to get into India with QGC "The agreement marks BG Group’s first investment in Australia. QGC and BG Group have also agreed to cooperate in the evaluation of further coal seam gas opportunities in India, where BG Group already has established upstream and downstream business interests."

Email from QGC re dividends follows with removal of names etc.

Thank you for your positive and encouraging email below.
No decision has been made by the Board at this point on when QGC will start paying a dividend.

As background currently QGC has significant tax losses which are expected to be used up within the next 2 years. When these losses are exhausted and QGC starts paying income tax it will be able to attach franking credits to any dividends paid. The QGC Board will be updating shareholders once a decision is made as to timing and payment of dividends.
Please let me know if you have any other questions.

[TheAbyss]

Get ready for a re rating. Looking through the information at hand QGC will have to be re rated on the strength of the latest announcement with BG Group.

Once QGC are selling off shore they can earn twice the revenue for their product based on current LNG prices,

Currently they have 1,327 PJ of 2p and another 3,116 PJ of 3p (as per certified reserve upgrade in December 2007).

They should at least be re rated on the percentage they will be selling via BG. That is a hefty number.

BG gas sales project's first year of operation, Queensland Gas's earnings EBITDA could exceed A$800 million.

QGC's share of revenue from the project (over a 20 yr timeline) should be about $25 billion. What is the current market cap of QGC? $2.2b at a share price of $3.30 (as per 2007 annual report). Now that is a low PE and why it will be re rated.

Add to these numbers everything else QGC are doing such as AGL. Incitec Pivot, the QGC power station, Pipleline into the national electricity grid just to name a few and you will see where i am coming from.

The deal

Value approx A$870 million, made up via

A$250 million to buy in at $3.07 per share (new shares)
A$415 million for the interest in Queensland Gas's coal seam gas acreage
A$207 million for a further 10 percent share of the acreage once the LNG project is approved or once Queensland Gas firms up 7,000 petajoules (6.6 trillion cubic feet) of reserves.

Key to this is proving up the resources however there appears to be little doubt they are there.

Re rating imminent
:cool:

[Dukey]

Get ready for a re rating. Looking through the information at hand QGC will have to be re rated on the strength of the latest announcement with BG Group.

Once QGC are selling off shore they can earn twice the revenue for their product based on current LNG prices,

Currently they have 1,327 PJ of 2p and another 3,116 PJ of 3p (as per certified reserve upgrade in December 2007).

They should at least be re rated on the percentage they will be selling via BG. That is a hefty number.

BG gas sales project's first year of operation, Queensland Gas's earnings EBITDA could exceed A$800 million.

QGC's share of revenue from the project (over a 20 yr timeline) should be about $25 billion. What is the current market cap of QGC? $2.2b at a share price of $3.30 (as per 2007 annual report). Now that is a low PE and why it will be re rated.

Add to these numbers everything else QGC are doing such as AGL. Incitec Pivot, the QGC power station, Pipleline into the national electricity grid just to name a few and you will see where i am coming from.

The deal

Value approx A$870 million, made up via

A$250 million to buy in at $3.07 per share (new shares)
A$415 million for the interest in Queensland Gas's coal seam gas acreage
A$207 million for a further 10 percent share of the acreage once the LNG project is approved or once Queensland Gas firms up 7,000 petajoules (6.6 trillion cubic feet) of reserves.

Key to this is proving up the resources however there appears to be little doubt they are there.

Re rating imminent
:cool:

Well - looks like you got that right Abyss!!

Up almost 20% so far today, smashing through $4.00 mark. Lets hope she can stay there. This is on relatively small volume - which I view as a good thing - ie. few folks willing to sell.

- & with AOE charging back too. - Nice day for us CSM lovers!!!

[TheAbyss]

Just another step on the path of success for QGC, albeit a large one.

Give them some time and they will be selling access to the new LNG plant to the likes of Santos, AOE etc.

Any suggestions on who might be a buy out target for QGC? They will be looking for as much CSG as they can get their hands on now that they can sell it for double the price their competition can.

[grace]

Well I hold QGC, ESG and SPX. ESG are cheap at the moment in my opinion, but in NSW, so I don't know that they would be on the radar. ESG looking for domestic supply down south......down to Newcastle, supply into Sydney I think. But why would you supply domestically when you can get double elsewhere? Price rises coming for Australians I feel! They will take it out of Newcastle if prices don't rise!

[TheAbyss]

Grace, QGC are building an LNG plant in Qld (possibly Gladstone) and once they are off loading via BG Group into the US etc at twice the local price, they will then build additional units to allow the likes of Santos etc to do the same. That will force the local purchasers to up their prices as the plant comes on line.

Yes the price will increase so the entire CSM sector should get a re rating over time IMO.

I was looking for the nearology factor re the other players adjacent to QGC as that would appeal to QGC to buy them for access to additional resources.

[grace]

Grace, QGC are building an LNG plant in Qld (possibly Gladstone) and once they are off loading via BG Group into the US etc at twice the local price, they will then build additional units to allow the likes of Santos etc to do the same. That will force the local purchasers to up their prices as the plant comes on line.

Yes the price will increase so the entire CSM sector should get a re rating over time IMO.

I was looking for the nearology factor re the other players adjacent to QGC as that would appeal to QGC to buy them for access to additional resources.

Sunshine Gas SHG (although tied up with Sojitz) Their map looks to have some pretty good coverage MC = $356 mill
1P 44
2P 469
3P 1097
There are also private companies too I believe (from memory looking at a map of leases around QGC and AOE's holdings).

[kingbrown]

Hello Grace
I hold quite a few of these gas stocks also
ESG AOE QGC
Dont forget to mention PES ( pure energy )
Yes its a young csg explorer
But its still down dramatically from the markets beating the other week :banghead:

Now one of the biggest Holders in Queensland with around 21,000 km2 :D
I guess its going to get noticed sooner or later

Ciao :cool:

[laurie]

Now we all know why Santos wanted QGC! if it did managed to get QGC it would have been a bargain and they must have known more than the average investor what QGC was sitting on ah well they should have offered more to shareholders instead of pissing around with under valued offers

cheers laurie

[grace]

Hello Grace
I hold quite a few of these gas stocks also
ESG AOE QGC
Dont forget to mention PES ( pure energy )
Yes its a young csg explorer
But its still down dramatically from the markets beating the other week :banghead:

Now one of the biggest Holders in Queensland with around 21,000 km2 :D
I guess its going to get noticed sooner or later

Ciao :cool:

Thanks kingbrown (gosh I hate snakes, no personal attack intended!)....anyway, I hold SXP (I think I said SPX). A speccie sitting on some very prospective holdings down South. Will drill this year. MOU with LNC. I hold LNC too. I will take a look at PES thanks.

[TheAbyss]

Thanks kingbrown (gosh I hate snakes, no personal attack intended!)....anyway, I hold SXP (I think I said SPX). A speccie sitting on some very prospective holdings down South. Will drill this year. MOU with LNC. I hold LNC too. I will take a look at PES thanks.

Thanks to you both. PES and ESG both look interesting so need to do some more research on them now. Slight leaning to PES at the moment purely on the positioning of their tenements however need to find a way to divine what they are sitting on. as they are pretty new.

Pity we couldnt read between the lines in December when QGC released the certification on the resources. It was unaccompanied and had no real reason to be completed at the time howver i bet it was a precondition to the BG deal.

Next time a CSG company releases resource certification i am buying some.

[Ferret]

Now we all know why Santos wanted QGC! if it did managed to get QGC it would have been a bargain and they must have known more than the average investor what QGC was sitting on ah well they should have offered more to shareholders instead of pissing around with under valued offers

cheers laurie

Doesn't AGK have 25% of QGC? They were the ones who ended up with the bargain!

With AGK's share price still in the basement, maybe it is a cheap way to pick up some exposure to QGC.

Ferret

[laurie]

Deleted
cheers laurie

[laurie]

That's true but at least we still hold QGC shares I was not interested in holding Santos shares or the cash offer we would have made a significant loss on the sp and this is only the beginning :D

cheers laurie

[TheAbyss]

Has anyone done any math on what is a fair SP is for QGC at the moment based on the British Gas deal and current projects etc?

SP is still undergoing a re rating and it is up another 3.5% today and the buyers are still stacking up for more (170 buyers for 896,096 units 73 sellers for 635,709 units). Not that technical has much to do with the movement in the SP at the moment.

Any suggestions on a possible level?

[laurie]

I was hoping for a $4 level after the BG deal has been taken into account but this seems to me that there must be more news coming or someone in the know otherwise why is it still going up when the market is down then again they say a good red gets better with time Mr Cottee did say this deal was a company maker so are we seeing this happening and if so $5 is on the cards by weeks end, its $4.38 as I type this :2twocents

cheers laurie

[Tysonboss1]

Hi All,

It's going to be really hard to value this deal because of the long time frame and mulitple stage development, combined with the organic growth of their exisiting assets,...

with current Earnings at 4cents and a P/E ratio of 90

earnings are forecast to 12cents next year and 16cents the year after bring the P/E down to about 20 at todays price,...

So I think the current price is almost value for this growth stock without the BG deal, I think for now I will still be accumulating this stock, the chance it will drop back to $4 is quite slim.

[TheAbyss]

Hi All,

It's going to be really hard to value this deal because of the long time frame and mulitple stage development, combined with the organic growth of their exisiting assets,..

with current Earnings at 4cents and a P/E ratio of 90

earnings are forecast to 12cents next year and 16cents the year after bring the P/E down to about 20 at todays price,...


What we do know is before the LNG deal QGC was projected to sell 30PJ in 2008 and 60 PJ in 2009. This equates to $75 million in revenue for 2008 and approximately $150 million in 2009. There are apparently 2010 projections in broker reports by JP Morgan, Wilson HTM and ABN Amro as they have done all the analysis and also projected out to 2010

We do know that the projected revenue from just the BG deal is $800 million. That is approximately a multiple of 5 for their PE without any other projects, of which there are already quite a few on record.

So how do you measure this? Other factor to consider is QGC will be receiving twice the price for its resources once the facility is operational plus they are proving up more resources as part of the conditions of the contract and you can be pretty sure they will not stop at the required 7000 PJ for BG. They will over shoot that easily IMO.

How far forward do you value these guys?

Word of caution also, Given the difficulty in placing a value on QGC there is potential for it getting way ahead of itself and pulling back on retracement once some professional evaluations hit the streeets. Won't affect long term holders of course but i wouldnt like to go to far on their LVR to buy some more or use the equity for other stocks then have to sell some. Should be ok for a while yet though. Up .5.98% today and finished on a high with 156 buyers for 815,247 units 51 sellers for 471,021 units in the queue.


We need a brokers report.

[grace]

A bit of commentary on the CSM industry, but note no valuations per their knowledge

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F23611ED-1871-E587-E1B17039BE74B602

[grace]

Well, there were a heap of sellers at $4.60, now they have all gone. I think some were pulled. Not many sellers there now.

[grace]

Interesting read in the Courier Mail today, both about QGC and also a fellow by the name of Ian Sykes, first to discover CSM in Australia so he claims. He is fighting for his exploration license that the qld govt (and QLD gas) claim to have expired back in 2000. The block "Xyloleum" sits in amongst some nice CSG of Berwyndale (QGC), Talinga (Origin) and Argyle (QGC, Origin). Claims to have 340 000 million cubic feet of gas in his claim. Qld govt could pick up a windfall gain of $250 million for the sale of the gas lease (and I think QGC would be there with bells on putting their hand up). Interesting to see how it all unfolds. Claims his lease holds $2.7billion in gas sales from the well head (if converted to syngas and GTL - see Linc Energy (LNC) first pilot about to be commissioned this month.

[TheAbyss]

Grace, I was concerned also so fired in an email to QGC and asked the question. Response below. Whilst it was reassuring to read that the case had been awarded to teh Qld Govt and costs awarded agains Mr Sykes, i have replied back and asked what the maximum potential downside is should things go south and will post when i receive a reply.

"This case has been going on for a number of years. Mr Sykes has been losing applications to the various courts and racking up significant costs hence he has lost his large fortune. We understand that costs have also been awarded against him.

At this point it is to early to say what the final outcome will be however QGC is keeping a watching brief on proceeding."

[grace]

Grace, I was concerned also so fired in an email to QGC and asked the question. Response below. Whilst it was reassuring to read that the case had been awarded to teh Qld Govt and costs awarded agains Mr Sykes, i have replied back and asked what the maximum potential downside is should things go south and will post when i receive a reply.

"This case has been going on for a number of years. Mr Sykes has been losing applications to the various courts and racking up significant costs hence he has lost his large fortune. We understand that costs have also been awarded against him.

At this point it is to early to say what the final outcome will be however QGC is keeping a watching brief on proceeding."

I did not think that there was any downside for QGC and others, as his claim is on a lease that no other company is currently on. Just that it has been cancelled by the Qld govt and thus will revert back to them, and will be put up for auction for interested parties (assuming any appeal is lost). That's the windfall gain that the Qld Govt are looking forward to. Is this your understanding of the media coverage in the courier mail on Saturday last?

[TheAbyss]

He has since responded to say that QGC have no exposure.

On another note i see that a few are locking in some gains today on QGC which is entirely understandable in todays climate.

[Tysonboss1]

He has since responded to say that QGC have no exposure.

On another note i see that a few are locking in some gains today on QGC which is entirely understandable in todays climate.

Yeah the price has been all over the place today,..

I don't think the market has a clear value on this one today.

I put in a small order for some stock at $4.60 just to top up incase it rallied higher again, and a larger order for $4.20 that I was just going to let sit incase they drop over the next few days,...

But to my surprise i looked back 1/2 hour later and both orders had gone through.

It's going to be interesting to see where this stock comes to rest.

[grace]

Can someone look at course of sales for me. Is this robotic trading - little orders going through? Any thoughts?

[chops_a_must]

Can someone look at course of sales for me. Is this robotic trading - little orders going through? Any thoughts?

Don't know if it is or not, but I'd say QGC has a fair chance of dipping to about 3.60. I'll be buying there if it looks strong at that point.

I'd be inclined to fade this breakout now as well, but given the strength in energy, all the potential seems to be to the upside now.

Plus, I'd say given the figures in the December quarterly, the half yearly will be quite good as well.

[Tysonboss1]

Can someone look at course of sales for me. Is this robotic trading - little orders going through? Any thoughts?

The average trade was $4700 today if thats any help,...

I think this company is a strong longterm buy,...

I wouldn't worry about the shorterm ups and down,... just accumulate every time the price is right,...

[fma007]

I've been accumulating this one as well. I think it has great potential. Announced record profits today and looks like going full steam ahead with UK's BG.

Good future for this company :2twocents

[TheAbyss]

Speared off an email today to QGC for some comment on their thoughts as to why some 18 million shares were sold off recently which contributed to the SP slide back to the $3.20 it is at currently.

I havent suggested this in my email but it might be as simple as profit taking plus the announcement that QGC are forgoing short term profits for long term gains by devoting their resources to exploration rather than production.

I will advise when i receive a response.

[oldblue]

Good luck with your query, A.
In my experience, companies are often as much in the dark as the rest of us as to why shares are bought and sold.
No doubt, a substantial holder notice will issue in due course if its one holder doing most of the selling but this won't tell us the reason behind the action.
My guess is its the volatile state of the market these last few weeks.

:cool:

[chops_a_must]

AGL have been selling off their stake.

Been making a monty on this short, as discussed on the blog. Looking for $3.00 here.

[grace]

AGL have been selling off their stake.

Been making a monty on this short, as discussed on the blog. Looking for $3.00 here.

Chops, how did you find out it is AGL? Did I miss something.

I was looking to top up so keep shorting it hey!

[TheAbyss]

AGL have been selling off their stake.

Been making a monty on this short, as discussed on the blog. Looking for $3.00 here.

Amazing. I just read on another thread how TA was not always reliable in the current climate and the next i read your blog and find my 2nd confirmation that TA is still a viable medium (FMG close confirmed that TA). The old chestnut, a tool is only as good as the tradesman holding it comes to mind. I tip my hat and congratulate you Chops, well done.

Answers my query precisely. Where did you learn that AGL were divesting, not that it doesnt make sense now that QGC have found a new friend?

In QGC for a very long time so short term swings are not a concern though it always pays to be attentive. Yes trading the swings is an option but not for one of limited skillsets such as myself.

If i keep checking the blog will i see an update for when you have closed the short and either gone long or stayed out with substantiation?

Again, great job and well done. :bier:

[chops_a_must]

Amazing. I just read on another thread how TA was not always reliable in the current climate and the next i read your blog and find my 2nd confirmation that TA is still a viable medium (FMG close confirmed that TA). The old chestnut, a tool is only as good as the tradesman holding it comes to mind. I tip my hat and congratulate you Chops, well done.

Answers my query precisely. Where did you learn that AGL were divesting, not that it doesnt make sense now that QGC have found a new friend?

In QGC for a very long time so short term swings are not a concern though it always pays to be attentive. Yes trading the swings is an option but not for one of limited skillsets such as myself.

If i keep checking the blog will i see an update for when you have closed the short and either gone long or stayed out with substantiation?

Again, great job and well done. :bier:

It's not done yet... But barring a massive spike, it's now a guaranteed 1.5R trade. These gaps become bread and butter with enough time in futures... Obviously not 100% reliable, but good enough to get a really good return.

I didn't know AGL were selling at the time I took the short. That was pure ****.

I'll get out about 3.00, I don't give exact exits/ stops for various reasons... Paranoia :rolleyes:

Because of their priority to building reserves and not short term production... I can't see this going anywhere but sideways to down for a while. Just a punt that it will be in a band between about 2.50 (good support there), and in the low 3s. If it reacts ok to the 2.50 support, I might write some puts on it for the long term portfolio, if I want it to be excercised...

Anyway, here is the article... AGL have some credit problems... that volume spike yesterday is also interesting...



AGL plans asset sales to rebalance portfolio

* Font Size: Decrease Increase
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Nigel Wilson | March 01, 2008

AGL Energy is poised to sell major assets as it continues to rebuild after the Alinta carve-up of 18months ago.

Chief executive Michael Fraser confirmed yesterday that AGL's 10 per cent stake in PNG gas fields was set to be sold.

The company was also considering the future of its investment in the Loy Yang A power station -- the most efficient of Victoria's brown coal generators -- as well as selling its equity in Queensland Gas Company.

AGL Energy, the nation's biggest electricity and gas retailer, reported a first-half loss because of a slide in the value of hedging contracts for the purchase of power and the sale of oil.

In the half year to December 31 the loss was $22.9 million, compared with a profit of $3.4 million in the equivalent months of 2006.

Earnings before one-time items and derivatives slid 6.5 per cent to $183 million.

Mr Fraser repeated that the result was in line with the company's announcement to the market last October, guidance that led to AGL Energy's stock being savaged and ultimately the sacking of then CEO Paul Anthony.

AGL Energy said yesterday full-year "underlying" profit was on track to meet the revised forecast of $330 million to $360 million.

But ratings agency Standard & Poor's remained unimpressed, confirming its BBB negative credit measure and negative outlook on AGL Energy, saying this reflected a "temporary weakening of AGLE's financial performance and uncertainty on the timely execution of AGLE's strategies to substantially strengthen its balance sheet well before the end of calendar 2008".

"We expect AGL Energy to take immediate action to begin the sales process of some non-core assets in order to reduce its debt by $600-$700 million over the next six months," the agency said.

Mr Fraser said AGL Energy was considering selling its interests in oil and gas fields in PNG, and planned to sell all its pipeline interests once the benefits of owning the assets were achieved.

The company's merchant energy business, which includes power generation, had a 21 per cent jump in first-half operating profit to $238.9 million, but retail earnings were essentially unchanged.

"These results confirm that AGL has a strong underlying business," Mr Fraser said.

Later he said the company was actively rebalancing its portfolio in the light of the federal Government's impending greenhouse emissions trading scheme. This meant its investment in Loy Yang would be reviewed.

Gas would continue to grow along with renewables, and coal's contribution would decline.

He noted the energy future was clouded, depending on the take-up of wind power and the need to cover its contribution to national electricity supply through peak shaving gas-fired generation plants.

Mr Fraser said also he believed the deal between BG Plc and QGC, in which AGL has a 27 per cent stake, to build a coal seam methane-fuelled LNG plant in Gladstone would change the dynamics of LNG in Australia.

It was unlikely that all four LNG plants proposed for Gladstone would go ahead, with the BG plant likely to stimulate the aggregation of CSM supplies from a number of producers.

AGL Energy's investment in QGC, which cost around $300million, was now worth $800million so the board was considering whether to realise the capital gain for other projects.

The gas supply contracts with QGC would not be affected, Mr Fraser said.

[MRC & Co]

TheAbyss, of course some can still get gains out of TA, I agree with chops, gaps are prooving very reliable.

As far as who is using the tool, go through the threads. Its being used by many many here and not to great effect lately. You will always find positives and negatives of any tool, however I seem to be noticing a hell of a lot of wrong TA calls lately (including making a few myself). I dont know how many false breakouts on high volume in charts I have been seeing lately, due to indicies crashing down and destroying the trend.

Either way, you have to find your own trading style, if TA works for you, use it. I still do use the basics, but Im not putting much on the line simply based on TA at the moment, chops is using it well. On that note chops, you take the ASX short position?

Be careful about selling those naked puts for the longer-term, with the 3000s being talked of :eek:

[chops_a_must]

Either way, you have to find your own trading style, if TA works for you, use it. I still do use the basics, but Im not putting much on the line simply based on TA at the moment, chops is using it well. On that note chops, you take the ASX short position?

Be careful about selling those naked puts for the longer-term chops, with the 3000s being talked of :eek:

I couldn't take the ASX short because IB are having some troubles obviously. Probably a good thing, it would have gone against me thus far. Still think it has a good chance of hitting 30 at least though.

What I would be most likely to do with those puts is to create a spread. Either at the time of the original written put, or depending on how it looks, a bit after. That way I can decide what to do...

I'm not like that wad on bear stearns. Lol! Whoever said buy and holders had no risk management?

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, probably a good thing looking at it now (only checked the price just then). Would definately wait for a week or so however, momentum looks ok today, considering yesterday was such a huge spike! With all the bears out there, a short bounce looks likely at least to me. Historically, multiple IR cuts also do very well in the medium-term as far as rallies are concerned. Perhaps this is why the POG is being hammered. Shifting assets (as I did myself today) to those areas of momentum and vice-versa.

Yeh, a credit spread would be one way of doing it. At least then you still generate some income and hedge, good old risk management! Or sell LEAPS (surely you can sell them, as you can definately buy them), if the market hasnt recovered in some time, you at least can close them out without huge time decay. Dont fully understand the exact legalities of such things however.

[Jimminy]

Wilson HTM Investment had a bus load of staff attend QGC Berwyndale operation during the week. Were mightily impressed by what they saw and were told!

[TheAbyss]

Good on you QGC. Quietly banks $664 million way ahead of schedule and visits India with the Premier to start a new enterprise over there. Pity they released the information on a friday night though they will get some coverage out of the weekend press with good news at a premium at the moment.

QGC AND BG GROUP COMPLETE LNG TRANSACTION
QGC RECEIVES $664 MILLION

Australia’s leading coal seam gas producer, Queensland Gas Company (QGC), today completed the transaction to form a world-scale LNG alliance with global energy company, BG Group.

The completion in Brisbane today resulted in QGC receiving $664 million from BG Group (formerly British Gas). QGC Chairman Robert Bryan said he was delighted that the transaction was completed today, ahead of schedule and in
recognition of the importance of a key component of the alliance with BG Group.

QGC and BG Group are working on a joint commitment for the annual export of 3-4 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from an LNG plant proposed to be built near Gladstone on the Central Queensland coast.

QGC will supply the LNG plant with 190 petajoules of coal seam gas a year from the company’s tenements in the Surat Basin. The project is scheduled to export its first shipment of LNG in 2013.

“The transfer of the funds today from BG Group marks BG’s first investment in Australia and reinforces the seriousness and credibility of the alliance with QGC,’’ Mr Bryan said.

“This is a tremendous step forward for QGC because it provides us with the means to continue QGC’s rapid growth.’’

The transaction which gives rise to QGC’s alliance with BG Group has received relevant approvals from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and the Queensland Government.

QGC will receive a further $207 million from BG Group for the sale of a further 10 per cent of QGC’s interests in the Walloon coal seam gas acreage, upon the earlier of a positive Final Investment Decision (FID), or the certification of
7,000 petajoules of proved and probable (2P) reserves.

Independent certifiers Netherland Sewell & Associates have assessed that QGC currently has 1,317 petajoules of proved and probable (2P) reserves, and more than 7,255 petajoules in reserves and contingent resources. As part of the understanding with BG Group, Mr Bryan welcomed Mr David Maxwell, BG Group’s Managing Director Business Development, as an alternate director to the Board of QGC.

QGC Managing Director Richard Cottee, in India on a trade mission with Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and for meetings with BG Group executives in Mumbai, said BG Group’s initial investment is equivalent to more than 20 per
cent of QGC’s market capitalisation. He said the transaction will transform QGC’s focus.

“The fact we have been able to achieve this just nine weeks after we jointly announced our innovative alliance gives me great confidence in the end game,’’ Mr Cottee said.


“We are in the enviable position of having no debt, almost $800 million in cash in the bank, growing reserves of coal seam gas, a track record of success, and a professional partner in BG Group – a top 10 company on the London Stock Exchange.’’

Of the $664 million provided by BG Group today: · About $415 million is in return for a 20 per cent share of QGC’s existing interests in QGC’s world-class Walloon coal seam gas acreage; and · About $249 million is in return for 81,278,451 new shares equivalent to 9.9 per cent of QGC’s expanded capital at $3.07 a share.

Mr Cottee commended the Queensland Government for environmentally-friendly policies which have supported producers of natural gas, including coal seam gas. The key policy requires Queensland users of large amounts of electricity to source a minimum of 13 per cent of their electricity from gas-fired generation. The figure will increase to 18 per cent by 2020.

Mr Cottee said QGC is in an ideal position to capitalise on the world’s growing demand for LNG as a significantly cleaner, greener energy source. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, who joined Mr Cottee and BG Group executives in Mumbai, India, today to mark completion of the transaction, applauded QGC and BG Group for their rapid progress.

“I am excited by the tremendous advantages which this massive project promises to deliver for Queensland and for the environment on a global scale,’’ Ms Bligh said. “There will be several thousand job opportunities and ongoing economic revival of drought-stricken communities throughout the Surat Basin.
“We now look forward to a massive development programme, some $8 billion in capital expenditure, a new cornerstone for growth in Gladstone where the LNG plant will be built, and the export of a greener energy source.

“The royalties from the project will help to underpin the dynamic growth being achieved throughout Queensland. “Having met the Chief Executive of BG Group, Frank Chapman, and his counterpart at QGC, Richard Cottee, I understand how the project is coming to fruition so quickly.’’

[laurie]

So why is AGL selling off its holding in QGC when Santos went for a takeover? Something is not right :confused:

cheers laurie

[Tysonboss1]

So why is AGL selling off its holding in QGC when Santos went for a takeover? Something is not right :confused:

cheers laurie

Agl has already made alot on this stock,..... AGL needs cashflow at the moment and the stock is not paying a dividend, I guess they are just thinkinking that they will take there profit and free up some capital so as to improve there cashflow.

[TheAbyss]

Also AGL are after a stake in a LNG plant in Qld which they are now chasing. They thought they could via QGC however now that QGC are with BG, AGL are swapping horses imo.

[TheAbyss]

I love it. Below is a copy of an email i sent to Mukesh Panchal. Imagine the sweat that flowed from his brow when he read it and wondered if i knew about his insider trading escapades. I didn't but his conscience would have got to him i am thinking.

Mukesh

How are you? Trust you are well.

I was wondering whether you had any insight as to why the SP has been reducing and more importantly why some 10 million units were sold off last week?

I am a long term holder however this sort of activity surprises me given the positives that have been flowing.

[laurie]

Glad there was no fall out from this Mr Cottee has acted in the interest of shareholders and is seen as being someone who has strong morel standards just greed from one person :rolleyes:

cheers laurie

[Dukey]

Glad there was no fall out from this Mr Cottee has acted in the interest of shareholders and is seen as being someone who has strong morel standards just greed from one person :rolleyes:

cheers laurie

I agree - He's handled this situation very well and enhanced his moral standing and hence ... trust. It's amazing what clear and open communication can do isn't it!!! Plenty of other companies could take a lesson from Cottee.

... & QGC looking great today :D- bashing through $4.00 again - should have a much better chance of staying around these levels with the BG LNG partnership.

In the past I have been tempted to sell a few parcels in order to diversify into others - but usually QGC just goes on to perform better than the new stocks!! ... so this time I'm holding tight.

... When you're onto a good thing... stick to it!!

- my long term strategy.

Regards all - Dukey

(first post back after travel etc, and internet/email/login hassles... :))

[TheAbyss]

Great guns indeed. It isnt only QGC (up 7.5%) doing well either. QGC are the leaders of the Qld CSM industry.

PES (up 10.5% today), SHG (up 2.2%) and AOE (up 4.5%) all doing well today. Bloke could do worse than take a position in the CSM portfolio in qld. Hold QGC and PES.

I have information on the Sykes issue which i received yesterday form Hedley Thomas who is the QGC General Manager - Communications & External Relations. If anyone would like a copy let me know. Basically it supports the QGC view that Sykes is a time waster.

This entire industry is being taken very seriously now. QGC are the 3rd largest public company in QLD now. David Cottee was slated for threatening to resign if he didnt get a pay rise and shares a few years back however he is worth every cent now. Energex should never of let him go. Their loss.

[TheAbyss]

Interesting times afoot. BG is redifining the market in Australia at the moment.

Interesting article by John Durie in The Australian today (link below). What i found interesting (besides the revaluation of the CSM players today;)) is that in the article Durie calculates that BG have paid QGC $1.34 a gj for their resource whereas BG have offered ORG $10 a GJ. A few ways to look at this, the most obvious two being that QGC undersold themselves or BG are desperate to grab a large stake in the Australian LNG resource.

Either way, it means that there is still a lot of room for QGC SP to increase based on their proven resources alone let alone new 2p going forward. The rest of the CSM players have all done well today as everyone decides to grab a stake hoping for a big offer to come along. Consolidation is fantastic.

What happens when the Govt decides that they shouldnt be selling these resources overseas whilst we spend more and more money to find oil in deeper seas to sate our own demands?

Just maybe the Oilers and the govt will allow industry to use LNG to drive engines and then watch this industry take off.:2twocents

Hold QGC, AOE, PES, SHG.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23621932-5013408,00.html

John Durie extract,

Now, on rough numbers, BG paid $1.34 a gigajoule for its stake in QGC and is paying around $1.04 a share in its bid for Origin, which compares with spot export prices of as much as $10 a gigajoule.

[Dukey]

Jeez! - look like some frantic trading early today - a few big trades of ~ 100000 - 140000 shares early on. Thats some big dollar punters - or institutions?? - buying around $5.00... though she's slipped back a little since - now ~ $4.78.

More very good signs for the future of QGC sp IMHO.
Would've been nice to hold above $5 but now that that barrier has been broken once.. it's just a matter of time..
again - my opinion only.
.... just wish I'd never sold a single one of these shares :bonk::o:p:

HOLD QGC; PES; AOE; in the coal seamers sector.
Wish list = SXP and LNC

[laurie]

One thing that has to happen is that local gas prices has to match the export price otherwise companies like QGC will take the overseas prices and who wouldn't it's not a charity,even NHC has a 18% hold of AOE knowing where the next energy rainbow is forming GAS :2twocents

cheers laurie

[Tysonboss1]

One thing that has to happen is that local gas prices has to match the export price otherwise companies like QGC will take the overseas prices and who wouldn't it's not a charity,even NHC has a 18% hold of AOE knowing where the next energy rainbow is forming GAS :2twocents

cheers laurie

Yeah once there are some LNG terminals a biggr export market will put upward pressure on any new supply contracts that local energy retails will have to signwith the producers.

once our local producers have the choice of putting the gas on a ship or into local piplines obviously the local retailers will have to compete with the export market for feed stock.

[laurie]

Well if this keep up AOE and QGC will be issued with speeding tickets from the ASX boy this is one hella of a ride up I have my seat belts on :D

Now I wonder how those shareholders from Sydney Gas must feel at .33cents and their Directors who said it was not going to happen with QGC

cheers laurie

[Tysonboss1]

Well if this keep up AOE and QGC will be issued with speeding tickets from the ASX boy this is one hella of a ride up I have my seat belts on :D

Now I wonder how those shareholders from Sydney Gas must feel at .33cents and their Directors who said it was not going to happen with QGC

cheers laurie

whats going on with sydney gas,...

I haven't really looked to far into them,.... Is anything really happening.

[laurie]

whats going on with sydney gas,...

I haven't really looked to far into them,.... Is anything really happening.

don't bother they are exactly the same price when QGC offered a 2:1 script from memory that had QGC at approx .70cents gee guess what a 660% increase now SGL would have to hand over 15.22 shares for 1 QGC share talk about SGL directors getting that wrong :D

cheers laurie

[Boggo]

It has been a great run, it may be due for a correction back to around the $4.68 area before it heads on up again.
Volume has decreased over the last few days.
My :2twocents

.

[TheAbyss]

Technically correct however i wouldnt discount the sentiment at the moment. A lot of press around the whole sector over the weekend . May go for another few days before a retrace which is sure to happen at some point.

JP will be releasing a new analysis this month which will prove to be quite interesting reading.

[TheAbyss]

Well if this keep up AOE and QGC will be issued with speeding tickets from the ASX boy this is one hella of a ride up I have my seat belts on :D

Now I wonder how those shareholders from Sydney Gas must feel at .33cents and their Directors who said it was not going to happen with QGC

cheers laurie

Interesting article on QGC in which Richard Cottee alludes to the SGC offer as a diversionary tactic to stave off potential takeover of QGc. also in the article is a suggestion by Cottee that QGC will eventually get taken over but not for a while yet. Not sure that i would welome that however there is a long way to go yet for QGC and i am sure that a lot of people will be very happy.

QGC isnt a day trading toy it is a retiremnet plan (for me at least and i am only 40). In addition there are a few other interesting items including a brief history plus a statement of QGC having a larger resource than the Bass strait and Cooper basin combined. Maybe that is why the Woodside chief is taking notice and commenting via the oress on the CSG indusy=try now. This is a serious sector and only just the beginning.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23636583-5005200,00.html

[laurie]

TheAbyss

Well I have bad news old chap QGC board are against dividends.I got on at .50c for my nest egg hoping for the dividends,so in my opinion that means they are filling the money chest up for T/O's but I have hope that they MUST return some money back to shareholders and looking at the way the share price is at now any T/O will have an added premium to the price because we will have at least 2 or 3 companies after QGC so my target right now would have to be $8+ JMHO

cheers laurie

[Boggo]

Technically correct however i wouldnt discount the sentiment at the moment. A lot of press around the whole sector over the weekend . May go for another few days before a retrace which is sure to happen at some point.

JP will be releasing a new analysis this month which will prove to be quite interesting reading.

Yep, I agree, great article in the Weekend Aust that may drive it on.

A small retracement could be an opportunity grab some profits and re-enter a bit lower for another run up.

Mike

[laurie]

TheAbyss

Well I have bad news old chap QGC board are against dividends.I got on at .50c for my nest egg hoping for the dividends,so in my opinion that means they are filling the money chest up for T/O's but I have hope that they MUST return some money back to shareholders and looking at the way the share price is at now any T/O will have an added premium to the price because we will have at least 2 or 3 companies after QGC so my target right now would have to be $8+ JMHO

cheers laurie

thanks for the link appreciate any news on QGC

cheers laurie

[Tysonboss1]

it may be due for a correction back to around the $4.68 area before it heads on up again.

.

I hope so,

I am am getting a loan refinanced in about 2 weeks and I want to increase my holding so I would love to see this stock drop back a bit

[TheAbyss]

TheAbyss

Well I have bad news old chap QGC board are against dividends.I got on at .50c for my nest egg hoping for the dividends,so in my opinion that means they are filling the money chest up for T/O's but I have hope that they MUST return some money back to shareholders and looking at the way the share price is at now any T/O will have an added premium to the price because we will have at least 2 or 3 companies after QGC so my target right now would have to be $8+ JMHO

cheers laurie

I have an email from QGC stating that dividends are a couple of years away due to them having a large amount of tax credits to use before they will be paying a dividend. They will pay a dividend just not in the short term.

Another great run today for the CSG team. Even SGL got picked up in excess of 10%.

Also note that VPE had a decent increase in volume today. Perhaps people are starting to wonder what QGC saw in VPE to convince them to take a stake. Ex founding director of QGC is on the board at VPE so you have to wonder.:2twocents

[Dukey]

Have been impressed with QGC's show of strength today - after the consolidation since monday.
... started today expecting, and looking like it would continue down towards $5.00 but bounced back up to hit $5.50 again - and hanging high 5.40's now.

Still wouldn't be surprised to see a fall back through $5 sometime soonish, with $5.50 looking like upper resistance level now.

- any thoughts on what effect a successful BG takeover of Origin would have on QGC sp???

(hold qgc)

[grace]

Have been impressed with QGC's show of strength today - after the consolidation since monday.
... started today expecting, and looking like it would continue down towards $5.00 but bounced back up to hit $5.50 again - and hanging high 5.40's now.

Still wouldn't be surprised to see a fall back through $5 sometime soonish, with $5.50 looking like upper resistance level now.

- any thoughts on what effect a successful BG takeover of Origin would have on QGC sp???

(hold qgc)

I'm not selling any of my CSGers as I think BG will have to up the bid price....Just my opinion though. We might go higher, we might go lower...

[Tysonboss1]

I'm not selling any of my CSGers as I think BG will have to up the bid price....Just my opinion though. We might go higher, we might go lower...

I am thinking about selling 1/2 my QGC today at $6 and putting part of the money into Arrow and rebuy qgc if the price retreats,....

[TheAbyss]

I am thinking about selling 1/2 my QGC today at $6 and putting part of the money into Arrow and rebuy qgc if the price retreats,....

Arrow and PES have gone pretty hard also TB. I would be either locking in some profits or staying with what you have as QGC are tier 1 in this sector.

[laurie]

I am thinking about selling 1/2 my QGC today at $6 and putting part of the money into Arrow and rebuy qgc if the price retreats,....

I think that's a bad move then again it's your money if this was a 2 horse race in the Melbourne Cup AOE will always come second I think AOE assumed that local gas prices was to remain low so then they went overseas hey not saying its was bad move as I hold both BUT NHC holds 17.8% of AOE and I have been on record as saying IMHO NHC will make a bid for AOE as they have the acreage where the gas is then QGC will throw their bid in also for AOE :D

cheers laurie

[Eddyl]

I am slightly worried about this companies growth potential. It seems to be the market leader in CSG in QLD at the moment, but it doesn't seem to be using the position to grow i.e take overs or aggressively exploring new tenaments.

Any ideas?

[malachii]

Eddyl

I'll admit to a bit of bias here before I start. I have a fairly large shareholding in this and have been a shareholder for about 3 years now.

Having said that I think that they are using their position well. They have a power station coming online at the start of next year as well as announcing a huge joint venture with BG to build the infrastructure and supply gas for an LNG plant in Gladstone. To go from a small explorer to this in less than 3 years is outstanding in anyones language! As you'd know - they also have several contracts supplying gas to third parties.

About 12-18 months ago Richard Cottee talked about how they could buy smaller companies to expand at a certain cost (cant remember exact amount but it was quite a lot per GJ) or they could use the same amount of time and resources and explore/expand their own holdings at a much lesser amount (I think about 3cents per GJ). This is why the company has always grown organically and not by takeover.

I would trust the management of this company much more than any other. They have always (ALWAYS!!) under promised and over delivered. There are very few other companies particularly in the mining sector that you could say that about. And they have always been this way - even as a small explorer.

I think eventually they will start looking at other smaller explorers for expansion but not before they have fully utilized their own land. The last thing you want is management empire building just for the sake of it. We've all seen that too many times before (eg Fast Eddy and ABC!) They have aspirations to head overseas (BG may be a plank in this) but I'd say that is a little way off but you never know.

Anyway - like I said at the start - I'm biased - I like the company, I think the management is first rate, and I think that they will grow - maybe not as aggressively as the last 3 years but certainly they will grow constantly and make full use of all their resources and contacts.

malachii

PS - Just re-reading your comments about not aggressively exploring new tenements - during their "GAS" program they doubled their reserves and if my memory serves me right they are looking at doubling them again this year with the current drilling program. They have started drilling in some of the leases that have not had much exploration at this stage. They also need to shore up their 2P reserves from the current 1300 PJ to 7000 PJ for the balance of the BG investment so I'd say that the next few years they will have to pretty aggressively explore/develop.

[Dukey]

I am slightly worried about this companies growth potential. It seems to be the market leader in CSG in QLD at the moment, but it doesn't seem to be using the position to grow i.e take overs or aggressively exploring new tenaments.

Any ideas?

Gotta agree with Malachii here. (and like him I'm biased - but with good reason I believe)

QGC have always outperformed my expectations ... and the markets I think. Thats why they have overtaken and streaked ahead of AOE when the two sp's were tracking fairly closely for a good while.

That doesn't mean that AOE doesn't have a bright future - they will for sure; but QGC: with fast development, proving up resources and getting them to market, + the BG LNG plant joint venture ... QGC seems to have the bull by the horns to me. Future t/o's of smaller CSG holders likely.

On a personal note - I would say I have later regretted every single time I took a few QGC shares off the table to 'lock in profits' ... All just my opinion....

BUT yes - QGC has run hard lately and you have to balance that against the fact that AOE has just started drilling in india and is really not much above last years historical highs .. so it could run more in the short term.

Difficult decisions!! If QGC starts to turn down I'll be tempted myself, to sell some and buy them back at lower prices. But I'd hate to get stuck without them!!!?

there-in lies the dilemma...

I bet thats all about as clear as mud Eddyl !? :D;).... sorry - just thinking aloud.

good luck whatever course you take. - dukey.

[Eddyl]

Hi Malachii,


You're right. I really like the experience in the executives of the companies. Its one of the reasons I bought. I thought this company was more in the consolidation phase, and was neglecting exploration. If a resource company wants to grow, it needs to add to its discovered resources.

I like your theory about overseas development. I think its important that CSG companies pursue these avenues. This is were really energy growth is going to continue in the future.

[Dukey]

Will be interesting to see how QGC sp goes today after falling over the last few days. no doubt a few folks have seen fit to take profits as indicated by some recent posts. Have even considered doing same myself with view to buying in cheaper down the line. the big ?? as always is will she fall more... to $5.00 or even $4.50-4.60 ?? or will we see the buyers come in again today....

I don't claim to be a chartist at all - but the last few days on this one look alot like the first week of Feb, when QGC started to drop back after good gains... so I'm leaning towards a few more down days to come UNLESS another good announcement involving JV's etc comes along to prop us up...

any opinions out there??

-Dukey

[Dukey]

OK well - up 15c so far today... so much for my career as a chartist!! !:rolleyes:;).... still could play out over the next few days so..... waiting for now.
-D

[fma007]

Hi Dukey,

that last time QGC went down a significant amount, i read somewhere that it was due to AGL selling down part of its share in the company. Thats why the price almost reached pre-BG levels.

Anyway, what i'm getting at is although the share price might slip a bit due to the current hype around CSG, i doubt it will retrace the same amount we saw in Feb/March. My :2twocents.

I do hold this share, so maybe i'm bias. :)

[TheAbyss]

In addition to AGL selling ANZ also sold off a holding as part of the OPES issues. It is a 23 page report so i didnt read it too closely as i have no intention with parting with any of mine, however there was a holding disclosure and also a ceasing to be a substantial holder notice. It looks as though they sold enough to be below the 5%.

Probably go down today like everything else will. Buy in the dips as they say.

[Dukey]

Hi Dukey,

that last time QGC went down a significant amount, i read somewhere that it was due to AGL selling down part of its share in the company. Thats why the price almost reached pre-BG levels.

Anyway, what i'm getting at is although the share price might slip a bit due to the current hype around CSG, i doubt it will retrace the same amount we saw in Feb/March. My :2twocents.

I do hold this share, so maybe i'm bias. :)


In addition to AGL selling ANZ also sold off a holding as part of the OPES issues. It is a 23 page report so i didnt read it too closely as i have no intention with parting with any of mine, however there was a holding disclosure and also a ceasing to be a substantial holder notice. It looks as though they sold enough to be below the 5%.

Probably go down today like everything else will. Buy in the dips as they say.

That sounds about right re AGL selling down in Feb. Yesterdays rise was encouraging. The other possibility is the potential of some investors to take profits in order to throw them at 2nd tier CSG or UCG stocks, which may be seen as having more short term upside - though many have already run as strong or stronger than QGC.

Will be very glad to be proven wrong if QGC holds above 5.50 - since a big part of my portfolio is with them!!

-Dukey

[TheAbyss]

That sounds about right re AGL selling down in Feb. Yesterdays rise was encouraging. The other possibility is the potential of some investors to take profits in order to throw them at 2nd tier CSG or UCG stocks, which may be seen as having more short term upside - though many have already run as strong or stronger than QGC.

-Dukey

They are holding up ok at the moment. More interesting is that VPE are up nearly 10% on a pretty decent amt of volume who QGC grabbed a stake in recently. They are yet to go so it may well be time.

Agree totally with you regrading the prospects of the CSG players. They are all being rerated so no need to jump around IMO.

[Eddyl]

QGC seems to be bucking trends at the moment. Up almost 5% today. It seems like its up and up for CSGers. I really like this company, because it has a really estabilished position within the market, excellent exploration program, and it is already producing with contracts. Ultimately, it is in a great position to harness global demand for CSG and doing forward increased global demand for energy in general

[Eddyl]

Did anyone see the price sensitive announcement about QGC today. A deal to supply 50PJ of gas over 20 years to a new NSW power station?

This sounds like great news as QGC moves from strength to strength. Its good to see a company exploring lots of prospective tennements, but its even better to see them signing large supply contracts. This moves the company well into the realm of CSG producer, with a significant market lead of lots of the little CSGer's

[Dukey]

Did anyone see the price sensitive announcement about QGC today. A deal to supply 50PJ of gas over 20 years to a new NSW power station?

This sounds like great news as QGC moves from strength to strength. Its good to see a company exploring lots of prospective tennements, but its even better to see them signing large supply contracts. This moves the company well into the realm of CSG producer, with a significant market lead of lots of the little CSGer's

Yep!! - just came back to see that.... and QGC just keeps pulling new rabbits out of the hat. This time - a new 400 -600 MW power station for NSW, supplied by new pipeline and all the while they are proving up new gas reserves....
gotta love it!!:D

I'm guessing this might be enough to prop up the SP at these levels and maybe even push through $6. Think I'll cancel my earlier predicted correction/consolidation. :p:

and as I said at the time... VERY happy to be proven wrong... yet again... by this gem of a company.

- still have this niggling idea in the back of my brain about UCG too... I mean why wouldn't a company like QGC want to be involved??
?????

?????

[grace]

I am a holder of QGC and ESG. I note that ESG also have plans to supply NSW (just a little behind QGC one would say). The pipeline seems to be running right past ESG fields though. I find that interesting......... They were also planning a new pipeline. Anyone else care to comment?

[laurie]

I hope sometime this year or early next year QGC will be paying dividends to us shareholders or a one off capital return they must have heaps of tax credits accumulated thus far :D

cheers laurie

[TheAbyss]

I hope sometime this year or early next year QGC will be paying dividends to us shareholders or a one off capital return they must have heaps of tax credits accumulated thus far :D

cheers laurie

As you say Laurie, another great day in the life of a QGC shareholder. I wouldnt hold out hopes for a dividend any time soon though. The tax credits aside, QGC would be looking to use all of their funds for exploration and developing things like pipelines and power stations. Not sure that they will pay a dividend for a while yet.

Latest ABN Amro report rates the entire CSG sector as overweight plus labels QGC as a juggernaut!

Excerpt below

Queensland Gas - a juggernaut advancing on all fronts
QGC’s Undulla zone (in part of which Origin is a JV partner) is a most prolific
producer, with QGC’s wells averaging 1.6 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfpd).

Reported 2P reserves of 1,317 PJ (QGC 80% and BG Group 20%) support current gas sales agreements and supply for the QGC’s Condamine Power Station. Subsequent to its agreement with BG Group, QGC has over A$800m in cash to fund the reserve increase of 4,000 PJ required to support the proposed Gladstone LNG plant, with conversion of 1,800 PJ of existing 3P reserves and exploration on QGC’s extensive tenements expected to deliver the balance - and then some (To supply CSG for things like NSW power stations etc i would guess).

The report is an in depth study of most of the Qld CSG plays that have proven reserves.

Another comment,

QGC is the standout in
terms of free cash available
to fund expansion of its 2P
reserve base

[kingbrown]

I am a holder of QGC and ESG. I note that ESG also have plans to supply NSW (just a little behind QGC one would say). The pipeline seems to be running right past ESG fields though. I find that interesting......... They were also planning a new pipeline. Anyone else care to comment?

RE ESG Eastern Star Gas
Hello Grace
Iam also a long term holder of ESG :)
After QGC announced its pipeline and gas fired power station proposal
ESG then had a real run today much more than QGC did

After looking at QGC pipeline map it appears to run right through some ESG csm acreage ?

With ESG csm reseves close to market
would QGC contimplate buying up ESG ? :eek7:
as ESG is already close to the market, and has a small gas fired power plant


Also any comment on ESG price graph if iam reading right ?
ESSG released news yesterday see link
Projection at around $2.80 ?
Closed today at .74 i think ?


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=ESG

Let me know if any one else thinks ESG has potential or not ?
Or if you think QGC has plans to aquire ESG ???

[malachii]

I've read a few of the comments about QGC acquiring ESG or SGL and I maybe wrong but I cant see it. In the last report QGC sent out (1/2 yearly I think) they included a "History of QGC" advertising booklet and it included a section about the SGL takeover. They admitted that it had only really been a stunt to try and stop the takeover of QGC that was going on at the time - worked too!!.

QGC have pretty accurately set out their goals for the next 5-10 years. They are building the pipeline to move the gas they have into a "higher priced market", they have large tracts of land they still haven't started to explore and already have large amounts of firmed up 2P in the ground. Not sure why they would want more at this stage (they always said it was much cheaper to explore their own ground than buy some elses - only costs 3c per GJ). They are saying they have more than enough for any short term needs/sales and are in the process of proving up 3P reserves to provide for the export with BG. In fact at the phone-in talkfest they had a couple of months ago they were saying they would need to lock up any new gas they proved up due to concerns of flooding the Aus market and driving the price down! Their next stated expansion is looking at overseas ground to try and get some exposure offshore.

Their expenditure for the next 5 years is pretty big too. Not a great deal of "excess" available to spend on acquisitions. Having said that they took a stake in VPE(?) early this year and haven't stated why - got a feeling though it would be for their stake in the Surat Basin.

Like I said - this is my opinion only and as my wife will tell you - I'm quite often wrong!!

PS I hold a stake in QGC and ESG!

malachii

[laurie]

wow up over 11% to $6.39 a .59c rise boy lucky i have my seat belts on there is so much going on in this sector its hard to tell what is pushing the CSM players up and we haven't even talked about price increases for gas best investment I ever made for .51c :D

cheers laurie

[Eddyl]

Anyone slightly disappointed in QGC performance over the last couple of weeks or so. Considering all the hype around CSGer's recently, with QGC being at the heart of one of the largest announcements, the market hasn't responded too enthusiasticly.
All things considered:
1) QGC is one of the only CSGer's to have fixed contracts.
2) Plans to export and harness higher global gas prices with the BG deal.
3) Great tennements in perhaps the most prospective area for gas in the Surat basin.
4) Building nsw pipeline to harness the benefits of arbitrage between gas prices in QLD and NSW.
5) Experienced management team.
6)Proven record of successful development. Just look at the company three years ago.

All in all, I am at a loss at the moment, why people seem willing to jump onto any CSGer at the moment with all the hype. But there seems to be lower volumes of excitement(reflected in higher prices), in one of the best CSG companies from a fundamentally from my perspective.

Anyone else have any opinions on this?

I disclose holdings

[Dukey]

Man!!
QGC shareprice has gone up ~100% from Dec-Jan levels
- up almost 50% from previous high levels in Feb 08.

thats not too bad in my opinion.... you can't expect 10% rises everyday... I'll be quite happy to see a strong support base here around $6, before the next jump...

AOE sp is only just now starting towards catching up with the gains made by QGC.


all just my :2twocents

[TheAbyss]

If you hav eholdings in QGC you already know that they are leaders not followers. Your Sp increase has happened and the rest are catching up as 2nd and 3rd tier players.

QGC as Dukey rightly says is now setting up a new platform prepatrory to its next steps.

Lap it up while you can as they won't stay at these levels in my opinion. Others, whilst they are more dramatic are a lot thinner so may retrace quite a way once the heat wanes a bit.

Qgc are a price setter not a price follower so be comfortable in the knowledge you have something you can bank on. Go get a ML against your QGC and buy others if you feel the need to take more risk for faster profit.

[Eddyl]

Abyss and Dukey,

I like you am very confident in the companies ability to turn a profit in the long run. Like I mentioned before I believe it to be one of the most fundamentally sound CSGer's trading on the ASX at the moment. However, I guess my question is around why all the other CSG companies seem to be running hot at the moment, despite their realtively speculative nature, whilst QGC, despite featuring in one of the largest announcements to the media has been relatively subdued?

Cheers

[oldblue]

There's an element of " Buy the rumour, sell the fact" here.
The market knows, or thinks it knows, what QGC has to offer: now it's looking for the next good thing!

;)

[Dukey]

There's an element of " Buy the rumour, sell the fact" here.
The market knows, or thinks it knows, what QGC has to offer: now it's looking for the next good thing!

;)

and given todays news re getting shell on board, thats likely to be AOE for the moment.... till the next next good thing comes along.!!

[Eddyl]

Good point Dukey and Oldblue,

QGC seems to be one the most consistent of the CSGers. Its good to see actual developments underpinning price rather than speculation. Kind of like the hare and tortoise I guess.

Another good example of the excellent management, and continual progress today:

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080604/pdf/00848286.pdf

Anymore exploration in the Surat Basin is good news. Perhaps the best acerage for CSG gas. I guess as opposed to PES or any of the other CSGer's with huge acerage, QGC policy of persuing quality of quantity should hopefully pay off.