BMX - BeMax Resources

[RichKid]

Hi folks,

I've been following BMX BeMax Resources (little kid preparing to go into big league of mineral producers) and have noticed a HUGE explosion in volume today (3Feb05, not shown on charts). I cannot understand it. Lots of people are buying in at support shown in chart (13/13.5c), currently at 13.5c. This is an all time high volume spike at 25m+ so far today, anyone know why?

Has been ranging recently so my strategy is for a short term play, but if it rises on strength I'll hold on for the rerating. The longterm downtrend has been broken and the price has jumped up and consolidated (see bottom chart), significant increase in volume over the last year or so suggest there's lots of support and that this one is preparing for takeoff.

Buy Depth at 13c is very solid but the price isn't moving up. Suggests a tipsheet has picked this one and has recommended buying at 13c- just my guess.

[RichKid]

Here's the explanation, I should have guessed! So liquidity will increase, price already at 14.5c, depth and volume are reasonable and looking solid again.



4 February 2005
The Announcements Officer, ASX

Dear Sir

Sons of Gwalia Limited (Administrators Appointed)
The Company wishes to announce that Sons of Gwalia Limited (Administrators
Appointed) has sold 24,459,000 shares in Bemax in an on-market transaction.

Sons of Gwalia Limited (Administrators Appointed) continues to hold 28,160,090 shares in Bemax which are subject to a compulsory ASX restriction until May 2005 and a further restriction in respect to ASX on-market sales until May 2006 (being in accordance with the terms of the Merger Agreement under which the shares were acquired in May 2004).

[Mofra]

Richkid,

I've been following for a couple of months (haven't bought as yet) and the SGW mess was certainly hanging over the market, however now with capital assured to bring project to fruition, construction starting and a clear timetable for development of the project the market may well re-rate the stock, personally prefer to wait a little before jumping in since they are really more than 12 months away from profitablity.

Cheers,

Mofra

[RichKid]

Hi Mofra,

I bought in because I thought it was too low and that it should be around the mid to late teens till the project development risk dissipates over the next few months. BMX jumped up to 16c today, I think that release of SGW shares has given this one a good jolt as it has increased liquidity. More SGW holdings will be released much later on but that'll help as well. Volume certainly has picked up. This one may sit abit higher than 13c for the next few months. 17c seems like a level to note in the short term. Probably more of a ranging stock atm, I hope the SGW share release explains the movement (and the bounce off support at 13c- lots of buy depth there) otherwise it may be something else.

[Mofra]

Richkid,

May be a little hesitation with regards to the remaining shares from the SGW hangover as well, seems quite a few may be waiting for further news about the outstanding shares before jumping on board (I'm one of them, although still have a small bid in at 13.5c). If a large chunk of the unsold shares were to be picked up in an off-market transfer by an insto (even a boutique fund) I'd be prepared to pay a couple of ticks higher.

Cheers

Mofra

[RichKid]

Richkid,

May be a little hesitation with regards to the remaining shares from the SGW hangover as well, seems quite a few may be waiting for further news about the outstanding shares before jumping on board (I'm one of them, although still have a small bid in at 13.5c). If a large chunk of the unsold shares were to be picked up in an off-market transfer by an insto (even a boutique fund) I'd be prepared to pay a couple of ticks higher.

Cheers

Mofra

Good point there Mofra, obviously attractive to instos, I didn't think of that, I suppose the ASX would have to ok any off market deal.

Still solid support and volumes are good, BMX has done a lot of work recently and are completing some studies, maybe the sp is waiting on that news- might be another explanation for ranging. Eitherway the chart looks very supportive at these levels, although I'd hate to see what any bad news would do to the nearby support!!

[RichKid]

BMX ran to 16.5c today before settling at 16, still good depth but at lower levels. I've noticed that at the lower prices (13.5 to 14c) despite the overwhelming buy depth the sellers seem to be coming down to the bid price, suggesting weak hands waiting to get out. As soon as those bears are eaten up we should see some stability and a more predictable market depth pattern.

I expect the price to settle lower as the trend suggests a few spikes along the way, but we'll have to see. I won't be surprised if this ranges but at higher levels instead of sitting at 13.5c, might need a few weeks though.

[RichKid]

An updated chart, pretty much the same comfortable story. I haven't traded this as effectively as I could have, still holding when I could have been in and out twice. Live and learn. I'm anticipating a big wakeup call to the market in a few months, especially as things get choppy generally. This is one company that has kept its costs tight and has good relations with the locals and its contractors. Management have an unblemished record from what I have heard so far. A matter of patience now.

[RichKid]

Finally some action again in BMX, has broken through that near term consolidation zone of the last few weeks. Needs to find support above 18c for this to drive on through the channel resistance. I'll try to see if there is a fundamental explanation for the price move, maybe tip sheet buying but the volume was very high. Now at 17c with good depth for at least a small move higher tommorrow.

[RichKid]

The explanation for the volume is today's annct. On budget and full steam ahead is the summary, Gingko project is doing fine and the new discoveries have been incorporated into the budget with no problems. Well there you go, TA predicts FA news again. No sign of this going higher quickly though, steady as she goes.

[RichKid]

A minor breakout today, see the last bar, a recent option conversion has increased the number of shares on issue so it helps with liquidity but no immediate dilution due to the small number of options and the terms of conversion imo (see the annct).

So, it's broken through that resistance line on volume, most at the trades at the end of the day. I expect it'll hover around 18.5c tomorrow as the huge sell volume gets absorbed. Spread is 18c(680k)/19c(1.2m).

Note the higher and higher consolidation levels ('ledges'??) as it approaches the top of its medium term range again- I expect the next test or the second test of higher resistance to be the powrful one that takes it soaring toward 30c as the risk profile diminishes fast come year end. Most people will be looking to get set in the stock in anticipation- this is what the recent weeks have shown imo.

With costs below budget and great relationships with the locals and contractors I prefer this type of management to that of most other junior resources co's.

[RichKid]

So, it's broken through that resistance line on volume, most at the trades at the end of the day. I expect it'll hover around 18.5c tomorrow as the huge sell volume gets absorbed. Spread is 18c(680k)/19c(1.2m).


Might be turning out to be a bigger breakout than I expected, no new highs but some eager buyers and patient sellers. High of 19.5c today and currently the bulk of the trades are at 19c. Volume looks like it'll be higher than yesterday. Historical price movement has been erratic so hard to pick an important level yet but I'd guess support at 20c will be a minimum for this to keep going now (rather than in a few months time).

[RichKid]

BMX has surprised me on the upside again, I expect some consolidation soon. Buy depth is good but not extraordinary imo. This is not a tip, this has risen sharply and collapsed even faster before and could do it again.

[RichKid]

BMX appears to be consolidating again as before, another 'step' like pattern before the next leg up?? or is this it for now?? Found this recent article, these journos come up with some quirky titles:



BeMaX Stock Goes to the Max
Ian Howarth
21 July 2005 Australian Financial Review

Shares in mineral sands producer and explorer BeMaX Resources NL soared to a record 21 ¢ yesterday after the group's main shareholder lifted its stake to 32.7 per cent.

Saudi Arabia-based Cristal Australia exercised 50 million options at 13.5 ¢ each, providing BeMaX with an additional $6.75 million in cash.

Exercising the options lifted Cristal's stake from 28.74 per cent to 32.7 per cent, although Cristal is exempt from making a takeover offer.

Cristal held a previous exemption from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission that allowed it to lift its stake to 47 per cent of BeMaX, but its stake in the company has been diluted through subsequent equity issues.

Yesterday BeMaX managing director Tony Shirfan said BeMaX's record share price could not be explained solely by the exercise of the options by Cristal.

"I cannot explain it. Perhaps people are seeing value in BeMaX there is certainly good value there," Mr Shirfan said.

The Cristal options were due to expire on September 19 but the company decided to exercise them early, "before they all went on holidays no one stays in Saudi Arabia in August and September".

BeMaX is developing the Ginkgo mineral sands deposit in the NSW part of the Murray Basin, about 120 kilometres north of Mildura, as part of its Pooncarie project.

The $176 million project involves a mine and a mineral separation plant at Broken Hill.

Mr Shirfan said development of the project remained on schedule and within budget.

A mining lease was granted in March after the completion of all permits, including native title agreements and environmental and planning clearances.

"The total budget for the Pooncarie project is $176.4 million, which includes an $8 million contingency," the company reported last month.

"At this advanced stage of development, with all key contracts either executed or in the final stages of documentation and many executed on a lump-sum basis, it is not anticipated that this budget will need to be revised."

The Ginkgo deposit was discovered in late 1998 and has since been extensively drilled out.

It is one of the larger single, coarse-grained, rutile- and zircon-rich deposits in the Murray Basin.

Production from the mine will begin in December and from the mineral separation plant in March.

[doctorj]

I'm shocked that this stock has been so well spotted and continues to perform so strongly, but RK seems to be the only one that's cottoned on.

[RichKid]

I'm shocked that this stock has been so well spotted and continues to perform so strongly, but RK seems to be the only one that's cottoned on.

Hi Doc,
I heard from a mate sometime ago that it was tipped by fat prophets but not sure if they still recommend it. I'm also guessing from some past observations via buy depth that there were other tipsheets in on it too (that was around 13/14c, see my earlier posts). The fact that these BMX guys aren't trying to sell you the moon means that the average punter may not be enticed. The chart pattern is what really made me pick this and then I realised the risks were disappearing rapidly as management met milestone after milestone. Not in blue sky yet, with less than six months to production I'll be happy for some consolidation soon as there is still the normal pre-production risk.

[RichKid]

Just an update, some big sales at the end of the week, looks like profit taking but steady depth balancing out just above 20c. This looks like the next consolidation phase in the step like pattern but it's hard to confirm til it's played out next week. Let's see where the real support is. My guess is 20c and then a break further up beyond 23c. Not a tip, so don't buy on my view. Just an exercise for me at the moment to see how the pattern may unfold, could easily be a collapse as before.

[hedgehog]

I am new to the share market game and know very little. I have been told to invest in bemax shares. I have had a look and found that they have risen quite a bit and am wondering what you experienced traders think have I missed the boat?

[RichKid]

I am new to the share market game and know very little. I have been told to invest in bemax shares. I have had a look and found that they have risen quite a bit and am wondering what you experienced traders think have I missed the boat?

Hedgehog,

Welcome to the Aussie Stock Forums!

Firstly, please read the forum code of conduct (link at bottom of page) and the posting guidelines (thread at top of each forum). You should really have searched (tool at top of this page) or browsed for existing threads on the topic before starting a new one. So I have merged your thread with the existing BMX, thread as you can see.

You will notice from this thread that I have been following BMX (I hold), however, it is not a recommendation to buy, hold, sell or do anything in relation to your situation. This thread merely contains my reflections in relation to the stock and some general discussion. I am not qualified to give advice.

[Knobby22]

To try to be a bit more helpful hedgehog, yes you have missed the bottom but the stock is rising. I am sitting on very good gains as I presume Richkid is however neither of us has sold, this suggests that we expect further gains to occur. Buying now is more a risk but it is better to buy a stock that is rising than try to pick the bottom in many cases.

Whether this stock is going to reach 80c which is my hoped for figure depends on whether the new mine being built operates to spec and prices hold up.

I suggest you do a search on the net, read the annual report, chairman's statements and try to understand the mineral sands industry. It is not that easy to understand but doing this will allow you to quantify the risk and enable you to make a somewhat informed decision. As you are a learner, I would not invest too much and use it as a learning experience.

[RichKid]

I agree with Knobby about the need for more research. I find many absolute beginners just go off tips or what others are buying alone. There is a whole heap of stuff in the beginners forum on trading plans, money and risk mgmt, technical analysis and other topics which will no doubt assist.

Just for the record I have took some of my capital out much lower down (that was the plan, I couldn't predict how high this would go) and have moved my stop well up from where it was. I think this company stands out from the crowd of other speccies or I would have just sold out and moved on much earlier. However, many risks still exist before full production and sales commence.

It appears another distribution to accumulation phase (a tight range?) has started but it all depends on the market, watch and wait is all I can do now.

Anyone else have any comments or critiques?

[RichKid]

It appears another distribution to accumulation phase (a tight range?) has started but it all depends on the market, watch and wait is all I can do now.


Well, looks like the next step up, an impulse bar today imo. The last few impulse moves have been successful- just a rough guide, it'll end at some point.

Didn't think I'd be updating this thread so soon.

With Ticor about to go with the new bid, BMX may be one of the few remaining quality emerging minerals plays.

[RichKid]

Knobby,

Any thoughts on the run up? It's been a great week. I haven't seen anything in the press lately on BMX, maybe some tipsheets going for it, just my guess by some of the small orders.

Another very strong impulse bar today taking it to 28c, closing at 27.5c. Still someway to go befoe reaching previous highs, which is when the real breakout will occur imo.

Great to see the volume continuing on this uptrend. Maybe it'll consolidate next week (I keep saying that but it hasn't quite happened yet, it still keeps running).

[Knobby22]

The Ginko project was running ahead of schedule with no problems, last report about two months ago. I think the market is anticipating that the next report due soon will show the project is even further ahead.

It has gone up rather quickly but I expect it should stabilise and consolidate at hopefully 30c over the next few months. Assuming project completion in November/December, another run (to 40c?) may occur then.

[RichKid]

The Ginko project was running ahead of schedule with no problems, last report about two months ago. I think the market is anticipating that the next report due soon will show the project is even further ahead.

It has gone up rather quickly but I expect it should stabilise and consolidate at hopefully 30c over the next few months. Assuming project completion in November/December, another run (to 40c?) may occur then.

I forgot about the project updates, no indication on the co website re next report date or anything like that. Just a wait and see for now, looking to pop over 30c. Support seems to be holding at 25.5c, things have quietened so maybe more buyers will turn up. Only a few months to go now before the typical pre-production stage buyers jump into this little stock for a quick ride. Issue is still project risk as a lot has to be done before the year is out.

Saw this link on the co website, a story from ABC's landline on the Murray Basin and mineral sands: http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2005/s1365013.htm

[Knobby22]

Interesting.
I'm a touch worried about Iluka's continual expansion and I think there is to be another plant opening in South Africa (corridor sands) which may also effect the long term market.

[RichKid]

Big fall for BMX this week, broken short term trendline, falling towards medium term trendline and possible support in the low to mid 20s. Just a matter of time before something happened. Question now is will it recover or just go sideways, volumes aren't too bad so no huge panic and most of the big holders seem to be on board, mainly profit taking I think. Longterm the current price is very low imo as it'll pick up as we get to production in December and the activity in 1Q 2006. But anything can happen between now and then, fortunately everything is on track so far. I'll probably buy more if there is solid support in the low 20's but let's see how it goes.

[Caliente]

Hi Richkid, this looks like a good buying opportunity for this company.

My preferred entry point is around .23 - .235

- Tight holdings by the Top 10 (~70%)
- Quality progress of Ginkgo (momentum through to December)
- A REAL plan for the coming 6 months/year for expansion [one of my main focuses now in looking at small/mid caps]
- Solid prices for products (zircon, rutile, titanium,etc.)

I'm putting in an order today :)

[RichKid]

Hi Richkid, this looks like a good buying opportunity for this company.

My preferred entry point is around .23 - .235

- Tight holdings by the Top 10 (~70%)
- Quality progress of Ginkgo (momentum through to December)
- A REAL plan for the coming 6 months/year for expansion [one of my main focuses now in looking at small/mid caps]
- Solid prices for products (zircon, rutile, titanium,etc.)

I'm putting in an order today :)

Hi Caliente,
It has paused in the st downtrend a bit but let's see how it pans out, still up in the intermediate trend (if you can call it that). We'll have to wait for the sellers to finish and see how much buy strength there is. September might be a bit messy so could be some opportunities.
Your entry prices seem to be close to support, all depends on how much you want to risk I guess.
Thumbs up on BMX imo longterm.

[Caliente]

Hi Richkid, I entered at .235 and its sitting at .245 today. Buying support seems good, and the stock satisfies my criteria for positive growth.

So it all seems good, and you're right, it should be trending north in the run to December.

[Caliente]

nice little report from this morning's Australasian Investment Review that is relevant

"
Zircon At US$700/t In 2006? You Bet!

Commodity experts at Smith Barney Citigroup recently updated their assumptions for the zircon market and if anything, their conclusions only add further to the bullish sentiment surrounding the likes of Iluka (ILU) and Bemax Resources (BMX).

Citigroup believes that substitution and reduced unit use, which have been important negative factors for zircon usage in past cycles, have become less of a threat in the current cycle.

The world’s largest producer of zircon, Iluka recently indicated its intention to raise prices by US$100/t in 2006. This would take the price to US$725/t. Imagine, only a few years ago, one could buy the metal at US$240/t.

Citigroup analysts have now brought their forecasts closer to Iluka’s and adopted a 2006 zircon price of US$700 in their model. In addition, the specialists now assume that prices are sustained through 2007, and do not decline until 2008. This follows on from their expectation of ongoing supply shortages and limited substitution pressures.

The experts suggest that one of the reasons for the limited substitution pressures may be that the price in Euro has not increased as much as in US dollar."

[Knobby22]

Good stuff Caliente.

[el_ninj0]

Based on fundementals, looks like it will turn around on 22cps. Im thinking of shorting and going for buy in at 0.22 and sell out at 0.24.
But its also a good long term prospect
:)

[RichKid]

But its also a good long term prospect
:)

Agree there, just not sure in the very short term (days to weeks). Nice one Caliente, let's see if those strong price projections keep up.

[Caliente]

el ninjo, right on. A 0.22/5 --> 0.24/5 move is not a bad capture at all. In hindsight I bought in a little earlier than the support line, but mid-term prospects are strong, so I'm going to keep this stock in my 3 month basket unless something radical happens :)

[RichKid]

BMX seems to be following that trendline very nicely.

[brerwallabi]

BMX looks very nice for all holders MACD look like it will crossover indicating another bullish trend here. I am back into this today Rich I think its got a nice little gain for me.

[Caliente]

hey guys, the depth is looking very interesting atm. I get the gut feeling that BMX will push through 0.28 on this third attempt. My concern lies as to whether there will be sufficient volume to maintain momentum. Thoughts?

[Knobby22]

Yes, I agree, a good probabilty of a breakout to 30c, hopefully 28c will become the new support.

[Caliente]

well that push wasn't strong enough. 0.285, meh, my grandma could do better :P. Gonna just have to wait till the next word rolls out on Ginkgo. I for one am looking for at least 33c before I drop this baby//

[RichKid]

BMX seems to have had trouble breaking through, hanging around atm, close to trend support.

[amohonour]

Is everyone who has commented on BMX still confident with where things are, as its only a couple of weeks until production. I see that .80 is the thought on where the price is going. Is that still the target?

[Knobby22]

I am thinking 80c may be unrealistic, at least in the short term.
Would expect a jump when production begins and hopefully another if the company proves to be as profitable as forecast.
The price has held up reasonably well.
We shall see.

[amohonour]

knobby how do you see IMP as an option to get into BMX as a back door option if you know what i mean could be some quick money to be made at such a cheap price

[Knobby22]

Risky.

IMP borrowed $3.7M to buy it's BMX stake so their stake is worth $8-9m net.

There is a contingent liability in the half yearly of $8.5m relating to a disputed tax assessment in a subsidiary.

Quarterlies are somewhat suspect. Payment for the Bemax is not shown.

No institutional holders. What record have we of the management?
In horse racing terms, not for mine.

[amohonour]

so probably at least 200 to 1 lol

[Knobby22]

lol

[brerwallabi]

BMX is testing my patience, really thought it was about to go through 30 cents, probably my expectation will still happen as the nervousnes of the past few weeks may have held it back. I would have thought the fall back from the highs of six weeks ago would have seen a bit of buying action, or is there something we dont know about BMX, is it really as good as we all think?

[RichKid]

BMX is testing my patience, really thought it was about to go through 30 cents, probably my expectation will still happen as the nervousnes of the past few weeks may have held it back. I would have thought the fall back from the highs of six weeks ago would have seen a bit of buying action, or is there something we dont know about BMX, is it really as good as we all think?

Brer,
Yep, it hasn't got on with it, I've been waiting and watching. From memory the mine is to open in late Dec and produce in Jan/Feb so that means more sideways for November as these stocks tend to rise just before those last milestones are reached imo. My worries- rise in cost or any delay will send this down big time imo. Maybe people are just taking a breather after the recent run. I still view the price action as positive and think this fortnight will be important for confirmation of strength.
Anyone else hear anything about BMX- any links to news/reviews etc?

[Caliente]

I think we're going to start to see some milestones rolling in VERY soon.

IN fact the first has arrived. And according to the ASX statement, there is more to come over the next few weeks as well.

"Gingko Mine Commissioned"

Share price hit 0.295 today! (big movement if like me you've seen this stock meander sideways for months)!

So I think we're all finally going to see some rewards, although I really expected the stock to pick up sooner... grrr...

PS - In hindsight I'm also really impressed to see how well the stock held up over the past few months.

-Caliente

[brerwallabi]

I placed a sell at 30.5, I have exited, made a nice profit. I expected higher sooner and 35's but the events of recent weeks have probably delayed it. I can't sit around waiting - damn I could well have made a mistake here, but the money is in my wallet now. Hope it goes well for you Rich and Caliente.

[Caliente]

Hey Brer, just like me on the SBM stock. I placed the sell order at 0.195 only to see the stock sail all the way to the low 30's, grrr..

Everyone has their own tolerances. Mine are starting to grow slowly - maybe dangerously so :goodnight

Personally, I'm holding to see what impact news in the run to December has.
Gingko is looking strong, but nothing in life is ever certain so we have to wait and see :D

Looking at recent charts on Yahoo it appears to have found a new base at 0.295.

BTW --> 0.305 was a great sell price to achieve yesterday. You made it over 30 :) What % increse did u achieve in the end?

Would be great to hear what any other BMX holders thoughts are for the next few months?

[brerwallabi]

BTW --> 0.305 was a great sell price to achieve yesterday. You made it over 30 :) What % increse did u achieve in the end?



Caliente
In @ 20 cents really thanks to Richkid who highlighted BMX to all, sold at 26 and got back in about 6 weeks ago at 25 cents - so 30% & 22.5% gain for me. I'd rather take the gain now when I know I have it then risk bad news down the track but thats me - although there is no basis for bad news that I know. Its just my trading strategy. I set my target amd my expectation was 35 cents by now but it never got there.

[RichKid]

I don't hold atm, in and out a few times. I expect some profit taking now and for a dip of a few cents (or worse if ppl panic) maybe to mid/high 20's as we wait on the real news in December. I've noticed in the past that the price can correct after news (ie sell the fact). No production yet and til then lots of risk, that's why I normally sell part or all of my holding at certain levels- lock in profits for my sanity is what I like, 100% profit capture is impossible in my view from what I've heard from expert traders (who are consistently profitable). 30c or thereabout would be a reasonable level for most imo. No idea about valuations but they are so varied that it's just a guide.

Having said all that you'll see from my earlier posts that I'm often wrong on BMX!

[brerwallabi]

I don't hold atm, in and out a few times. I expect some profit taking now and for a dip of a few cents (or worse if ppl panic)
Having said all that you'll see from my earlier posts that I'm often wrong on BMX!
Rich I did not panic I took my profit, which is what you said, to me BMX has to show us the goods but I feel get out while the going is good from a tech view it looks still sorta good, still buy signals there, but I have my money and will probably move on anyway thanks owe you one as I would probably missed this if not for you.

[RichKid]

Rich I did not panic I took my profit, which is what you said, to me BMX has to show us the goods but I feel get out while the going is good from a tech view it looks still sorta good, still buy signals there, but I have my money and will probably move on anyway thanks owe you one as I would probably missed this if not for you.

Hi Brer,
No offence, I wasn't actually referring to you, I was thinking of those orders I see around 30c which may end up going lower as they try to lock in profits, if stop losses get hit too then it might spike down. I've been studying this carefully (but not too successfully yet even though I made some good $$$) as I hope to use this as one of the blueprints for further study of similar patterns, ie- ledges and box/rectangular consolidation patterns in uptreds/trend reversals have my interest atm.

Basically we both seem to have traded to a plan and that's what really counts. I may have said this before but 100% profit capture is impossible (except in hindsight). TechA had a little tip which accords with TA theory for these types of range breaks- sell half on breakout to target resistance (eg 30c) and rest on retest (ie break below 30c) if it doesn't get on with it.

I'm glad you got something out of this study of BMX, good to have company, especially when you do well out of it, we're all learning! There's more to come from BMX imo (over time) so I see this thread going on for a while yet (let's hope years!). .

[Knobby22]

New High.

There was no reason to sell.

Now the weak bulls are out, the price will keep increasing to a new equilibrium.

I have been holding now for over six months. Six months to go before I can sell (if I want to) with reduced capital gains and small transactions costs.

[Caliente]

Yup, trading to a plan is what its all about aint it, and my plan is to let this baby ride. I still hold to my original statement that I wont consider letting this baby go before 33c. But with current momentum I'm thinking that it will be breached.

Will reassess as the month rolls on.

btw, does BMX carry any dividends? I always trade for capital gain, so if I see a dividend pop up, its a nice surprise :)

[Duckman#72]

No dividend expected. I've been holding these in my superfund for a number of months. In at 16c - and all things being equal I'm expecting them to hit 45c mid next year. Still a lot of activity on the ground before money starts rolling in for them. But they have locked in forward contracts and the market seems positive. Hope it keeps going up!

[RichKid]

Another positive annct as expected saying things are on track and full ramp up is around the corner. Market seems to have expected it as prices are drifting lower on low volume. So about 30c may be the order of the day for the moment. Do they work through x'mas over there or what? I'd assume they'd take a few days off at least.

[Knobby22]

Impatient investors can't wait in rising market.
I agree with Duckman about a good increase mid next year. If they get to 25c i will buy more.

[Bobby]

Last week I took a look at there mill from the gate just outside Broken Hill.
Although not yet complete it is most impressive .
I hold a big position at the moment, but feel good about it.

This mob do seem to have there act together !
Soon they will go from a spec to mid-cap, & then open-sky ?!.
I'm thinking hard about pyramiding .

have fun Bob.

[Knobby22]

Nothing like an impressive gate.

(just joking, Merry Christmas everyone, it' been a great investing year, lets hope next year is half as good.)

[RichKid]

I'm a bit concerned technically as BMX has broken its recent uptrend line, might see a quick fall to the 200 day ma or thereabouts as happened before. Then again maybe it'll just burst through on some unexpected news??!! Who knows?

[Bobby]

I'm a bit concerned technically as BMX has broken its recent uptrend line, might see a quick fall to the 200 day ma or thereabouts as happened before. Then again maybe it'll just burst through on some unexpected news??!! Who knows?

Hello RichKid,
I'm holding whats a big position for me at the moment & see it as just going along side-ways in a channel between $0.310 & 0.285 with low volume.

But with there cash flow starting in late Feb or March 06 watch for volume increase & then the breakout, maybe as soon as mid Jan 06.

This is just my gut feeling ?, time will soon tell !. :2twocents
Regards Bob.

[RichKid]

Hello RichKid,
I'm holding whats a big position for me at the moment & see it as just going along side-ways in a channel between $0.310 & 0.285 with low volume.

But with there cash flow starting in late Feb or March 06 watch for volume increase & then the breakout, maybe as soon as mid Jan 06.

This is just my gut feeling ?, time will soon tell !. :2twocents
Regards Bob.

Hi Bobby,
Yes, seems to have dropped down to another sideways period. Just a chart showing some patterns, I'm concerned about the trajectory slowing with lower volume and a recent bearish candle spiking up....and that wedge, might just turn into a standard channel with parallel borders....

[brerwallabi]

A bit of a struggle last week between buyers and sellers and low volumes too but that was the Xmas break. Watch carefully tomorrow might be a bit of action or will it continue as it has been. I will be watching for an opportunity now I have some cash but it won't be the only one I will be watching.

[Bobby]

Greetings RichKid,
Yep I can see your concerns with the chart you posted, but don't be too concerned with the candle spike & wedge as both are on such low volume .

This is just the marking time period .
I'm going to get more soon, .
Just watching to know when to jump !!. ;)

Regards Bob.

[RichKid]

Greetings RichKid,
Yep I can see your concerns with the chart you posted, but don't be too concerned with the candle spike & wedge as both are on such low volume .

This is just the marking time period .
I'm going to get more soon, .
Just watching to know when to jump !!. ;)

Regards Bob.

Yes, I agree with Brer and Bobby about the low vol possibly being because of the holiday season, no clear view yet on my part....

[Caliente]

nice little move today (topped out at .32) --> hoping this one has some momentum :)

[Bobby]

nice little move today (topped out at .32) --> hoping this one has some momentum :)

Yep maybe the next jump, (liked the volume) but it needs to close at .33 tomorrow Why -then it will go to .37 .before a sideways short play. :2twocents

If this is wrong I lose $$$.
Cheers Bob.
P.S. Don't think I'll be wrong..

[Caliente]

looks like the Gingko is a GO!

Sweet little gain today :D

Just out of interest, can anyone shed light on the Government situation that is assisting BeMaX? I'll look into it myself also and report back my findings.

Cheers
-Caliente

[chicken]

Yep maybe the next jump, (liked the volume) but it needs to close at .33 tomorrow Why -then it will go to .37 .before a sideways short play. :2twocents

If this is wrong I lose $$$.
Cheers Bob.
P.S. Don't think I'll be wrong..
News was good today..WE HAVE PRODUCTION....next stop as it had broken resistance at 33cents..40 cents.....next resistance :2twocents

[Duckman#72]

I have no idea about the Government assistance. Would be interesting to know.

This stock is certainly a sleeper. It doesn't seem to get any negative publicity yet the share price just plods along. Nice rise today on the back of announcement to the ASX.

Maybe I'm looking at it wrongly but in all the chaos of yesterday's fall, almost of all the shares on my watchlist fell by days end except BMX. Suggests to me that they being undervalued by the market. I like them. Long term hold for me.

[Bobby]

I know more about this mob as there in my backyard, todays break through made me top up to a silly amount.
Bought in again at .325 , If you think I'm a dope ? then check the price in March 06 !. :p:

Regards Bob.

[Caliente]

Hi Duckman. turns out its an old article (2002). Just google "bemax hansard" and you'll find multiple pages. Still a Governmentally backed project is a good thing. (not counting telstra, muahahaha)

[Duckman#72]

Thanks Caliente. Some of those old clippings make interesting reading.

The site www.nationalminesatlas.gov.au/info/aimr/mineral_sands.jsp also provides an interesting coverage of mineral sands in general and paints Bemax in a good light.

[Knobby22]

Very strong move today in a falling market.
Breakout imminant?

[Duckman#72]

Hope so.

They did a similar thing last Wednesday when the market fell by 75points.They were up 1c most of the day only to ease at days end to finish unmoved. Certainly plenty of red about today.

With the first truckloads of raw material departing within the week it could just be the time for some SP movement.

[Bobby]

Very strong move today in a falling market.
Breakout imminant?

Yep there looking good !.
Tomorrow should tell ?!. :)
Bob.

[Caliente]

With the first truckloads of raw material departing within the week it could just be the time for some SP movement.

Big Kev --> I'm excited!

[Duckman#72]

I was reading on another forum that BeMax was headed for ASX300 status.

Firstly when does the reweighting take effect? Is it from March 2006? And secondly are you able to easily find out the companies sitting outside the Top 300 on the ASX site?

BeMax finished up at 34c today!

[Bobby]

I started buying up these from .20 to recently at .325, the nice problem will be the exit ?.
My usual is a cross down through a longer M.A. but because of the potential of this stock I don't want to get caught by the usual chop chop on the ride up, so think I'll use my favorite indicator ( Gut Feel ). :rolleyes:

What do you think ? , as at the time of writing its trading at .385 :)

Have fun Bob.

[sandik17]

I was reading on another forum that BeMax was headed for ASX300 status.

Firstly when does the reweighting take effect? Is it from March 2006? And secondly are you able to easily find out the companies sitting outside the Top 300 on the ASX site?




Anyone know anything about what Duckman's talking about here?

[trader]

Report by ORD MINNETT research give BMX a price of 39 cents per share once they start up and 43 cents once they have been in operation for awhile.

[Duckman#72]

Report by ORD MINNETT research give BMX a price of 39 cents per share
once they start up and 43 cents once they have been in operation for awhile.

That's interesting - Ords called them in March 2005 as having a 45c 12month valuation. That means despite the company's good progress, boom resource sector and commodity prices they have effectively downgraded their price from 12 months ago.

Mind you - Ords also currently have a valuation on Zinifex at $4.08 per share.

More concerning was the announcement this morning by Imperial (IMP) - holders of 18% of BeMax shares. They have burned through $200K this quarter and only have $200K left in the bank.

Might look at getting some cashflows in by taking profits on current BeMax share price. If IMP flood the market the SP will head south. Am I thinking correctly?

Also how does an Investment Company spend $200k (half it's cash reserves) in a quarter?

[Bobby]

That's interesting - Ords called them in March 2005 as having a 45c 12month valuation. That means despite the company's good progress, boom resource sector and commodity prices they have effectively downgraded their price from 12 months ago.

Mind you - Ords also currently have a valuation on Zinifex at $4.08 per share.

More concerning was the announcement this morning by Imperial (IMP) - holders of 18% of BeMax shares. They have burned through $200K this quarter and only have $200K left in the bank.

Might look at getting some cashflows in by taking profits on current BeMax share price. If IMP flood the market the SP will head south. Am I thinking correctly?

Also how does an Investment Company spend $200k (half it's cash reserves) in a quarter?

Hi Duckman,
Just noticed you stated 18% ? , Could you re-check that.
Thought it was 5.3%.

Bob.

[Duckman#72]

Hi Duckman,
Just noticed you stated 18% ? , Could you re-check that.
Thought it was 5.3%.

Bob.

Hi Bob

Sorry - I think you are correct. I got my figure from the Ord Minnett BMX research page where Imperial One is listed as 18.4% shareholder. But yes I do believe you are correct - they still have Cristal at 30% and Sons of Gwalia at 20%.

Sorry - brain explosion. Thanks for pulling me up.

Duckman

[Caliente]

hi, could someone please explain to me why it matters whether ORD owns 5 or 18% ???

Cheers
/Caliente

[tasmanian]

gday,

its not ord. :)

IMP own 5.3% in BMX.IMP sp is .001.bmx is 40c

5.3% o 40c???

[Bobby]

Gee today BMX did it again , hard to know how high it can go . :p:

Regards Bob.

[77TRADER77]

I bought these buggers at 26.5 cents
Sold at 32
Bought at 31
Sold at 33.5
Bought at 38cents and this time Im SMART .....they are going to HIT BLUE SKY when first SALES go Through

[Bobby]

I bought these buggers at 26.5 cents
Sold at 32
Bought at 31
Sold at 33.5
Bought at 38cents and this time Im SMART .....they are going to HIT BLUE SKY when first SALES go Through

Well good to see your back in them ! & now you won't be Selling for some time I think ? :p:

Bob.

[chicken]

Well good to see your back in them ! & now you won't be Selling for some time I think ? :p:

Bob.
Just read on Hc by sabrethtooth...article by abc finance news...That BMX Snapper deposit is BETTER than even the great Ginko deposit...this is looking great...I also noticed reading about this company..the WA mine and deposit was bought from no other company but SGW...Sons of Gwalia...so another group utilising the assets...I bought and all mining is on track...and all sales contracts are in place...looks to be another winner... :2twocents

[77TRADER77]

WoW you guys beat me to the Punch! I was about to buy more BEMAX and soon as I place another order UP she goes again. CEO Tony Shirfan must be the key cause he keeps shareholders informed and they deliver what they promise.... great management team. Thats what us traders & investors demand!

[sandik17]

Shouldn't be having too much trouble with buying at the moment 77trader77...what's the go here..
With so much good news, what's happening to this share price?

[Caliente]

WHY is the BMX stock price collapsing? THis seems to be more than just your typical 'Joe Average' correction. Anyone?

[Bobby]

WHY is the BMX stock price collapsing? THis seems to be more than just your typical 'Joe Average' correction. Anyone?

Looks like too many just selling at market last few days, but notice its on its way back now (fingers crossed!).

Bob.

[Duckman#72]

Looks like too many just selling at market last few days, but notice its on its way back now (fingers crossed!).

Bob.

Extremely positive ASX announcement made today - looks as if it was put out to counter the slide.

[chicken]

Extremely positive ASX announcement made today - looks as if it was put out to counter the slide.
Please read the update on www.bemax.com.au the first two sentences tells us where the company is at...BMX said they propeled themself to the 5th largest producer of titanium feed...in the world and are on parr with RIO,Iluka BHP and the sp at present price as they are now a producer of standing is cheap for 37cents....as soon as they have production figures the SP will be much better....one to hold and buy for long term....check their webside www.bemax.com.au great reading and good presentation....check it...I am holding :2twocents

[tasmanian]

Hi chicken

Do you have any thoughts on IMP? They hold 5.3% of BMX currently trading 1c.

cheers :)

[chicken]

Hi chicken

Do you have any thoughts on IMP? They hold 5.3% of BMX currently trading 1c.

cheers :)
No I dont know this company and cannot make a comment as I have not researched it..as far as BMX is concerned..www.bemax.com.au read what it says...will be very profitable this group I understand that they may get into the asx 300 in march......

[Duckman#72]

..will be very profitable this group I understand that they may get into the asx 300 in march......

Hi Chicken

Please see my post #82 in this thread. Does anyone know how to search on the ASX site or any others - actually how far off the ASX 300 companies such as Bemax are. And when it is updated and how often etc.

Duckman

[77TRADER77]

BEMAX-Update Mid Feb/06
CORRECTION FROM HIGH OF 44 cents sees these as great buy at 38-42c. According to Bemax Website original guestimates of valuation at 43cents when there was no serious shortage of zircon... Refer latest BMX company announcement. Appears they need price fortified... possibly frightened cashed up BHP might takem over. My opinion only.
Always research research research.

[Duckman#72]

BEMAX-Update Mid Feb/06
CORRECTION FROM HIGH OF 44 cents sees these as great buy at 38-42c. According to Bemax Website original guestimates of valuation at 43cents when there was no serious shortage of zircon... Refer latest BMX company announcement. Appears they need price fortified... possibly frightened cashed up BHP might takem over. My opinion only.
Always research research research.

I agree 77Trader77.

And why wouldn't they be frightened!! The company announcement last Thursday could have been announced to the ASX under the banner "FOR SALE - BRILLIANTLY RUN SMALL MINER, HUGE RESOURCE TENEMENTS, STABLE MARKET, DEVELOPMENT ALMOST COMPLETE WITH SALES REVENUE STARTING SHORTLY".

Surely one of the big players would be interested?

[Bobby]

BEMAX-Update Mid Feb/06
CORRECTION FROM HIGH OF 44 cents sees these as great buy at 38-42c. According to Bemax Website original guestimates of valuation at 43cents when there was no serious shortage of zircon... Refer latest BMX company announcement. Appears they need price fortified... possibly frightened cashed up BHP might takem over. My opinion only.
Always research research research.

Well now that you've dropped your guts, guess others have seen what you're about. Now aren't you a clever boy. :p:
Hope to get more tomorrow like you 77trader77!

Bob.

[zoo]

I have said all along that once bmx get the shop up and running , then they will be lucky to see out 12 months from production date as imho, a bigger player will swallow them....Iluka tenements next door as well...Ive been surprised that bmx have actually been able to pull off the seemingly impossible, getting a startup mine up and running without any catstrophes or major hurdles to contend with...that we know of.This resource market is all about consolidation and growing future revenues and mineral sands will be part of that mix...cheers

[chicken]

BEMAX-Update Mid Feb/06
CORRECTION FROM HIGH OF 44 cents sees these as great buy at 38-42c. According to Bemax Website original guestimates of valuation at 43cents when there was no serious shortage of zircon... Refer latest BMX company announcement. Appears they need price fortified... possibly frightened cashed up BHP might takem over. My opinion only.
Always research research research.
In this market anything is possible....though...43cents per share will not buy this group...perhaps 50c to 60c might do it.......IMHO

[zoo]

nah...not a chance at 40-50c....all hypothetical of course but a takeover pitched at bmx would be aimed at 80c imo...nothing less would be close..and thats talking about it now...in 6 mths time it increases...but bmx is a big growing setup...and will get bigger..pullbacks inevitable but a nice little play for sure.Cheers

[chicken]

nah...not a chance at 40-50c....all hypothetical of course but a takeover pitched at bmx would be aimed at 80c imo...nothing less would be close..and thats talking about it now...in 6 mths time it increases...but bmx is a big growing setup...and will get bigger..pullbacks inevitable but a nice little play for sure.Cheers
I must say I do agree with you...should have some idea how the company is doing at the end of March....see their website..www.bemax.com.au I do like what they said lately and yes I do agree what you posted..as soon as the public in Australia are made more aware of Bemax potential..the sp will explode....this is good stock..I am holding a swag of them.... :D

[chicken]

I must say I do agree with you...should have some idea how the company is doing at the end of March....see their website..www.bemax.com.au I do like what they said lately and yes I do agree what you posted..as soon as the public in Australia are made more aware of Bemax potential..the sp will explode....this is good stock..I am holding a swag of them.... :D
Iluka just increased the price of Zircon by 25%...great for all sandmine holders as BMX will follow suite.....no wonder the SP started moving today..watch this SP in march.....when we get our first results :2twocents

[zoo]

OK..so our current position is bmx sp running up and possible asx 300 inclusion talk would be a driving force.

IMHO only, I can see it hitting 45c before March 3 date...IF the current market sentiment stays intact and there is no adverse leaking of info pointing to missing out on asx inclusion.

If admitted and the price has surged to 45 area...then clearly 50 will be under threat.....if on the other hand no inclusion is coming, then 36 area should again be tested..

Sounds like Im sitting on the fence but I believe the stock is getting to a knife edge balancing act.....and that my friends is how a good market should be...with the only short term driver we need to focus on is in fact the asx 300 question...the rest will certainly look after itself..

All of this is purely my thoughts...hope it brings up some interesting chatter on a very good little startup story. :rolleyes:

[chicken]

Iluka just increased the price of Zircon by 25%...great for all sandmine holders as BMX will follow suite.....no wonder the SP started moving today..watch this SP in march.....when we get our first results :2twocents
Does this not give you the answer beside the ASX 300 listing...it does me :2twocents

[zoo]

yep, another piece to the puzzle chicken, my post was based on asx 300 bullishness mainly but your right as well imo. Zircon prices and order book stability a plus....with ILU struggling...hmmm, interesting.

[zoo]

Solid break to 39c..Fri should be :sly: interesting to say the least.

[chicken]

Solid break to 39c..Fri should be :sly: interesting to say the least.
You call 3 trades a solid break..give over ,takes more than that to reduce the price..and one of the sales was a X in a brokers office..I see this SP higher, as soon as news filters out, re buying cheaper now is the time to buy this stock as in 6 months you looking at a much higher price..Iluka just increased their price of Zircon by 25% and I am sure the same thing will happen in BMX ......there is a world shortage of this material...If the SP comes down..I AM BUYING More :2twocents

[zoo]

short term weakness for all to see from today, didnt look like breaking up to me.. imo you will buy cheaper Friday but of course, the bigger longterm picture is rosy...good money to be made in these dips tho and remember...lets not get crazy on it, plenty of stocks, plenty of time...if you miss this next run you will have a chance again. Cheers

[BraceFace]

Be careful guys.

The profit margin on the new Pooncarie deposit is going to be influenced by fuel prices. Big haulage costs involved in not only the minerals, (140km to Broken Hill and then rail to coast) but possibly the overburden as well (and there's plenty of that).

If fuel prices go up, share price might get hammered.

[zoo]

Thats a fair point and another piece to the jigsaw that would be investors need to understand...already paying $1.38 a litre in the bush, and thats with oil down....

I think the main thing to understand is all cards are nearly on the table and the market will be able to value the company on what it brings to the table in way of product...quality product. They are hitting the big assays zones first to get the early bucks and cash in on good prices, will bombard us with good news stories....eventually it will come down to "show me the money".

Excellent and impressive to get it up and running to this point...huge project, long life, predators waiting, is bmx a 40c company??? Whack a dollar in front of it and lets see this post again in 12 mths...

Cheers...all views my own..do your own sums.

[chicken]

Zoo,Analyst,and all the other names you use to post...you come up with a new slant all the time..Did I not just post that Zircon price had been increased by 25%.....as far as energy prices..well everyone has to pay more even BHP....no wonder prices are rising...BMX will repot at the end of March...I bought and also feel they will jet go higher due to their production...and anyone wants to check them out go to www.bemax.com.au

[wayneL]

Zoo,Analyst,and all the other names you use to post...you come up with a new slant all the time..Did I not just post that Zircon price had been increased by 25%.....as far as energy prices..well everyone has to pay more even BHP....no wonder prices are rising...BMX will repot at the end of March...I bought and also feel they will jet go higher due to their production...and anyone wants to check them out go to www.bemax.com.au

To clear up any confusion: by comparing IP addresses, it is apparent that "zoo" and "The Analyst" live in different states and could not be the same person.

Cheers

[zoo]

Cheers Moderator, why is it that when someone offers another slant on a stock, some people go a little....different?

Open forum means diff views appreciated....lol.

Good trading guys. :)

[chicken]

To clear up any confusion: by comparing IP addresses, it is apparent that "zoo" and "The Analyst" live in different states and could not be the same person.

Cheers
At least that is cleared up...have discovered that the analyst uses a lot of different names on one board he uses 8 different names..my apology ZOO..have a nice day...also Zoo yes I like your slant on this stock..re $1.40 in 12 months very likely.....another Iluka in the making I pointed out that Bemax bought from Sons of Gwalia the sandmining assets great one to watch..BMX are ramping up their production..seems all good news...

[zoo]

Apoplogy accepted chicken...but your cred has taken a hit in my books....now, back to the shares..

[chicken]

Bemax will give an update on their performance this months...the stockprice is cheap for the underlying fundamentals as they are now in production see www.bemax.com.au and it looks to me they are on the ball.....read the webside as it gives you a good understanding of this company..I am impressed as Bmx achieved all their goals so far...part of the company is an asset they bought from Sons of Gwalia in WA....all a go there... :2twocents

[chicken]

Bemax will give an update on their performance this months...the stockprice is cheap for the underlying fundamentals as they are now in production see www.bemax.com.au and it looks to me they are on the ball.....read the webside as it gives you a good understanding of this company..I am impressed as Bmx achieved all their goals so far...part of the company is an asset they bought from Sons of Gwalia in WA....all a go there... :2twocents
Well,it looks as BMX has turned the corner...made a profit..and started producing at the Ginko..the results are excelent as the result does not include their new production..so the next year results will all be positive..see Zircon increased in value by 25%...allwill show up in their next 1/2 year financials...looks all good for BMX...look at their full year results....out now

[Ann]

Hello Chicken,

May I offer you my thoughts on a chart?

[Bobby]

Yep its building up for the next Blow, its coming this month !. :p:

Bob

[RichKid]

Hello Chicken,

May I offer you my thoughts on a chart?

I've been watching this as well, Ann's chart is great.
Main point I've noted so far is the triangle like pattern forming and its similarity to a similar smaller pattern formed earlier (see first quarter of chart with pivot low at first half of triangle, similar to recent pivot low which closed the earlier gap that Ann points out). btw I thought the gap was closed? or does it have to be a close below it? either way buyers drove price up strongly that pivot day.

So onwards? Trend still very much intact. Guess a lot will ride on the annct. Certainly hasn't been any fresh buying on a big scale since people took profits at the last high.

Might range a bit imo but I've got this wrong so often it's not funny. Current ledge around 39c may be a low risk entry, but which way will it break? Or is it not a ledge?

[chicken]

Made it into the ASX300 and the ST&POORE ALLORDS...... :2twocents

[ctp6360]

Ann, I like your analysis of the daily graph, but did you glance at the weekly or monthly graph at all? From what I can tell, both are trending upwards...

[Ann]

Hi ctp6360,

No I must confess, I don't look at anything more than a daily. I have tried to work with weekly charts and even glanced at monthly charts at one stage. I noted on a couple of the monthly charts of the sectors and indices that some actually showed the odd, reasonable Kangaroo tail where the roos actually jumped in the right direction.

A number of Bulkowski's chart patterns also require the chart to be viewed on a weekly. I am tending to give these a miss in my studies.

The way I read a chart is to look for really subtle hints. Things that you can only just see if one concentrates very hard. The weeklies lose all that subtlty and I only feel I am getting too broad a view of the overall picture and missing my all important subtle clues......sometimes it feels like detective work with a magnifying glass :)

[ctp6360]

Thanks for your reply Ann, I really enjoy your analyses which is why I commented, I have recently been reading "Come inside my trading room" by Dr Alexander Elder, and his technique is to look at trends on 3 "screens" where he looks for trends in 3 different time frames relative to how you work, for instance if you normally look at dailies you look at weeklies and monthlies..

He recommends that if there is a defined and common trend between the weekly and the monthly graph (like there is in BMX's case) and there is a drop in the dailies, that this is a good time to buy.

I have no experience in this other than just reading half the book, so I'm not saying this is what is going on here, just that I have observed that in this case you get a much different perspective by looking at the "bigger picture" in terms of the weekly and monthly graphs.

Please keep your analyses coming, I think you're doing a great job, and I'm learning by looking at them!

[Ann]

I have recently been reading "Come inside my trading room" by Dr Alexander Elder, and his technique is to look at trends on 3 "screens" where he looks for trends in 3 different time frames relative to how you work, for instance if you normally look at dailies you look at weeklies and monthlies..

He recommends that if there is a defined and common trend between the weekly and the monthly graph (like there is in BMX's case) and there is a drop in the dailies, that this is a good time to buy.

Yes split screens could be interesting ctp6360. I have never had the opportunity to do that with charts. There are so many great trading books around, every one will have something to enrich your knowledge. Perhaps if you enjoy the Elder book you may like to glance at another book by one of Elder's disciples....."The Aggressive Investor" by Colin Nicholson. He is a wonderful speaker, he makes very few public appearances but if you get the opportunity to hear him speak I can really recommend him.

I think I noticed Colin's book was on special at the Aussiestockforum's bookshop. I think...maybe? Sorry if I am wrong. Easy to find anyway.

[Bobby]

Looks like my secret true ratios say that BMX will move up tomorrow.
Although I'm over topped up will be buying on the offer early.

Do not take this as a buy as I may be wrong.

But I think not. :D

Regards Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Looks like my secret true ratios say that BMX will move up tomorrow.
Although I'm over topped up will be buying on the offer early.

Do not take this as a buy as I may be wrong.

But I think not. :D

Regards Bob.


These ratios of yours......

[Bobby]

These ratios of yours......

Yep Snake them ratios were correct again, ;) up goes BMX !.

Have fun Bob.

[chicken]

Yep Snake them ratios were correct again, ;) up goes BMX !.

Have fun Bob.
YEP,looks as if the funds are selling Iluka and buying Bemax...Iluka dropping in value and BMX rising..nearly 5million shares traded today..yep, RichKid hope you still got some because the SP is going north...you little beauty.....looks as if this will be another winner.... :2twocents

[Bobby]

YEP,looks as if the funds are selling Iluka and buying Bemax...Iluka dropping in value and BMX rising..nearly 5million shares traded today..yep, RichKid hope you still got some because the SP is going north...you little beauty.....looks as if this will be another winner.... :2twocents

Yes today was most interesting Chicken, the battle tomorrow may be the transformation to open a new high later this week ? :confused: .

Bob.

[chicken]

Yes today was most interesting Chicken, the battle tomorrow may be the transformation to open a new high later this week ? :confused: .

Bob.
Should see 46cents this week.....its a goer this one...looked at some technicals and its all go....money flow, volume, its all good.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Should see 46cents this week.....its a goer this one...looked at some technicals and its all go....money flow, volume, its all good.

Chicken you are the man.
Now I know why you pick the winners.
Like the avatar, too. :nuts:

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi ctp6360,

No I must confess, I don't look at anything more than a daily. I have tried to work with weekly charts and even glanced at monthly charts at one stage. I noted on a couple of the monthly charts of the sectors and indices that some actually showed the odd, reasonable Kangaroo tail where the roos actually jumped in the right direction.

A number of Bulkowski's chart patterns also require the chart to be viewed on a weekly. I am tending to give these a miss in my studies.

The way I read a chart is to look for really subtle hints. Things that you can only just see if one concentrates very hard. The weeklies lose all that subtlty and I only feel I am getting too broad a view of the overall picture and missing my all important subtle clues......sometimes it feels like detective work with a magnifying glass :)

Interesting stuff Ann! :xyxthumbs

[chicken]

Looks as if we will again have a higher opening...great stock this $1 by year end..I meant to say $1+ by year end :2twocents

[Duckman#72]

Looks as if we will again have a higher opening...great stock this $1 by year end..I meant to say $1+ by year end :2twocents

With all due respect Chicken.......I am beginning to think that your posts are the "Kiss of Death". I hope your increased interest in BMX doesn't stall the share price like SBM. If so.......on behalf of all BMX shareholders.........move along to your next stock please. Ha ha

In all seriousness.....just when this stock would benefit from a kick in the market we see red everywhere. It continually finds itself running uphill. It has to take a trick soon.

Duckman

[GreatPig]

I am beginning to think that your posts are the "Kiss of Death"
You mean the stocks become a bit hen-pecked? :D

GP

[Knobby22]

Did you hear the one about the hen, duck and pig?

[Bobby]

Well just did the True ratios again, looks like BMX are going to jump tomorrow up.
As before I'll be buying early on the offer, can't help myself as its like finding money :rolleyes: do you bend over to pick it up ? or just walk on ?.

I may be wrong.

I think not :D .

Bob.

[77TRADER77]

BEMAX-A GREAT BUY AT 41 CENTS!!

Guys I was just going through the BMX Market Depth and looking at Postings here.
This afternoon I picked up my MX BIZ mag from Wynyard Station and guess what? YEP Ord Minnett Simon Coggins gives Bemax Resources NL the TIP OF THE DAY.
Looks like all the bunnies either panicked or profit took, but theyll still have to buy this great stock!
TRADERS read up on your BMX site.
Now BMX is in the ASX300 its only a matter of time before the Big players buy in to benefit from the Zircon sales now Illuka Resources has a dark cloud over it.
Bobby I dont know where you get your 'TRUE RATIOS' from but I know you're on the money KID. Market drops today and BMX? ROCK SOLID 'MONEY GREEN'

[GreatPig]

Market drops today and BMX? ROCK SOLID 'MONEY GREEN'
Green today???

Looks rather red to me.

GP

[Bobby]

Green today???

Looks rather red to me.

GP

Yep looks red tonight, think 77trader77 is getting excited about tomorrow.
Your thoughts GP about tomorrow ?

Bob.

[GreatPig]

Your thoughts GP about tomorrow ?
A sh!t of a busy day - software to write, project plans to update, research to undertake. It'll probably rain in the...

... oh, you mean for BMX? :D

Well I don't generally like to speculate, but since I'm holding, I should say Holders BEWARE! I've jinxed it! :D

While of course anything could happen, I think the huge up volume yesterday and relatively small down volume today are a good sign of more gains. As with the previous week, we could see a few days of small losses or gains as the price curves around against the new trend line, but hopefully then should continue to push up.

If I wanted to hazard some wave analysis, at which I'm an extreme novice, I might do it like this (attached). That would give the current run as combined wave 3's, which must be a good sign.

In the end though for me, I'll just continue to hold until I'm told to sell - or until I sell just before heading overseas on holiday. I'll probably hold a few shares over the couple of weeks odd I'm away, but I don't think BMX will be one of them no matter how well it's doing at the time.

Cheers,
GP

[Bobby]

A sh!t of a busy day - software to write, project plans to update, research to undertake. It'll probably rain in the...

... oh, you mean for BMX? :D

Well I don't generally like to speculate, but since I'm holding, I should say Holders BEWARE! I've jinxed it! :D

While of course anything could happen, I think the huge up volume yesterday and relatively small down volume today are a good sign of more gains. As with the previous week, we could see a few days of small losses or gains as the price curves around against the new trend line, but hopefully then should continue to push up.

If I wanted to hazard some wave analysis, at which I'm an extreme novice, I might do it like this (attached). That would give the current run as combined wave 3's, which must be a good sign.

In the end though for me, I'll just continue to hold until I'm told to sell - or until I sell just before heading overseas on holiday. I'll probably hold a few shares over the couple of weeks odd I'm away, but I don't think BMX will be one of them no matter how well it's doing at the time.

Cheers,
GP

Greetings GP ,
That start was funny :p: .
You have no idea whats going to happen, although you're somewhat positive on BMX .
My Strong advice is don't sell when you go overseas mate.
Just think how you may feel when its a $ something later this year ?.
Just have fun in the meantime.

Bob.

[BraceFace]

While of course anything could happen, I think the huge up volume yesterday and relatively small down volume today are a good sign of more gains. As with the previous week, we could see a few days of small losses or gains as the price curves around against the new trend line, but hopefully then should continue to push up.
GP

Do you think that the large volume yesterday may have been a lot of nervous investors who "missed" the last high and have hung on to their shares waiting for another high?
I'd be interested to hear Nick Radge's analysis of this one....

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Money was flowing out of it today just like it was flowing into it yesterday.
:twak: The amount of volume was the difference though.

[Bobby]

Money was flowing out of it today just like it was flowing into it yesterday.
:twak: The amount of volume was the difference though.
Hullo Snake,
Monday someone or some people bought up BMX at best, then all the rabbits jumped in. :sheep:
Tuesday only the rabbits traded.
Tomorrow someone or some people will will repeat this untill the rabbits get control again.

Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hullo Snake,
Yesterday someone or some people bought up BMX at best, then all the rabbits jumped in. :sheep:
Tomorrow someone or some people will will repeat this untill the rabbits get control again.

Bob.

Well Bobby,

We`ll have to :whip those rabbits then heh.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Did you hear the one about the hen, duck and pig?

What about the snake?

It is important to remember the market will determine what is good or not. Prophesising about the future.......dreaming or ramping? :blaah:

[chicken]

What about the snake?

It is important to remember the market will determine what is good or not. Prophesising about the future.......dreaming or ramping? :blaah:
I just love downrampers especially when they have not got a clue what they are talking about....talking on this board will not influense price but people will make an effort to research their stocks more..my recomendation is for BMX why..well take your time and check out www.bemax.com.au and research BMX...you will find there is a hugh amount of upside in this stock and NOW that they have 2 operations going as when you read their webside which is well presented....the company...has a hugh upside as they are dealing in a specialty field...all I can say I bought over 200k in shares and I am convinced that this is a goer..now in the ASX300 and All Ords...Fund managers are switching from Iluka to BMX as the upside is higher than with their present shareholding..MAKE YOUR OWN RESEARCH....but Rich KID knew this one is one day going to fire ,well the day is here now.... :2twocents

[Nick Radge]

Here is some for you guys. Its the weekly chart and we need to see how this week closes before having a clear idea. A low close this week means overhanging supply still has the upper hand and that must be cleared before prices can move higher.

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/ASF_BMX/ (Note: The commentary may start before the video. Just wait for the chart to appear, select stop, then play)

FWIW, I cover about 120 stocks per month on daily and weekly time frames using the video style. Extensive volume analysis can give a great insight into what one should expect, especially if you add in your own fundamentals.

Nick

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

[Knobby22]

What about the snake?

It is important to remember the market will determine what is good or not. Prophesising about the future.......dreaming or ramping? :blaah:

How did I forget?
And I agree, it's getting a bit over exuberant on this thread.
All this self congraulations, high emotions and ramping.

[Ann]

How did I forget?
And I agree, it's getting a bit over exuberant on this thread.
All this self congraulations, high emotions and ramping.

Hi Knobby22,

Let me throw in a bit of balance to all the exuberance with my take of the stock in a chart. I may well be wrong of course.

[Knobby22]

That's interesting Ann and I would not be surprised to see a retace to 36c.
How does the market sentiment indicator work? What does it measure?

[Ann]

Hi Knobby 22

Here is a definition I have posted elsewhere, I have done a cut and paste for you....

Positive Volume Index (PVI)


The Positive Volume Index (PVI) was created by Paul Dysart. It looks at days where the volume has increased from the previous day. The idea being that the "uninformed buyers" takes positions on days with higher volumes.

Therefore, the PVI displays what the not-so-smart-money is doing.

The Negative Volume Index (NVI), displays what the smart money is doing, on days with decreased volume, the "smart money" is quietly taking positions.

Note, however, that the PVI is not a contrarian indicator. Even though the PVI is supposed to show what the not-so-smart-money is doing, it still trends in the same direction as prices.



In the MetaStock Indicator Builder dialogue, PVI is written:

Cum(If(V>Ref(V,-1),ROC(C,1,%),0))

Translated: Cumulate the following: If the current volume "V" is greater than the previous period's volume "Ref(V,-1)", then compute the Rate-of-Change "ROC" of the Closing price "C" for one period expressed as a percentage; otherwise ( if the current volume is less than the previous volume), set the day's Rate-of-Change of the closing price computation to zero before cumulating.

[ctp6360]

Ann is there any reason the Y-axis of your graph is not to scale, I think it makes the graph extremely misleading! To me the whole point of a graph is to have it to scale? I might be missing something, I was just curious why you had it that way?

[Knobby22]

The graph is logarithimic.
It more clearly shows change than a linear graph.
The price going from 25 to 50c is equivalent to a share going from 50c to $1.00.

[Ann]

Knobby22,

Well done, you know your stuff!! Yes it is set in Log.

CTP6360,

Yes there is quite a difference between Log and Linear. I did not mean to appear to mislead but I prefer to look at my charts logarithimicly as it allows me to see better contours in the longer term. I find looking at a chart in linear, it flattens out. Having said that, if I want to draw long term trend lines I find they are more likely to be 'true' in linear setting than if I draw them in Log. I believe Guppy has a preference for Linear. If you are a short term trader, it makes no difference both scales look the same.

I will put up the same chart in Linear and you will see the pattern is still consistant and the price gap is still relevent.

[Ann]

While we are at it, in a genuine attempt not to mislead, lets draw a different pattern on the same Linear chart. I have drawn a Symmetrical Triangle which on this chart is potentially a bullish outcome. All in the eye of the beholder.

I don't buy miners so my only interest is to practice charting by offering charts. I have no interest in the outcome so I don't have a bias. I throw the lines where they feel right. I can be wrong of course......

Never to mislead, just the way I look at something.

[brerwallabi]

Still over that upper trend line from end of March last year, anyway what do I know never heard of this till Richkid brought it to everybodys attention last year. I sold before when it became static in low 30's, bought back at 35.5 reading it to be around 50cps but I can't quite pin the timeframe all the fundamentals seem to be glowing so I can't see why 50 cps is not realistic based on fundamentals but this could be a significant barrrier its such a nice round figure.

[RichKid]

Still over that upper trend line from end of March last year, anyway what do I know never heard of this till Richkid brought it to everybodys attention last year. I sold before when it became static in low 30's, bought back at 35.5 reading it to be around 50cps but I can't quite pin the timeframe all the fundamentals seem to be glowing so I can't see why 50 cps is not realistic based on fundamentals but this could be a significant barrrier its such a nice round figure.

imho the important thing to remember here, pure t/a, is that we are now forming a triangle of some sort near new highs, IF this bullish patterns succeeds then all the pent up energy of the last few years can only go up. First sign of support above the recent all time high is all this needs imo as that would take this well clear of the multi-year resistance. That recent long tailed pivot is a good sign as it showed that buyers were keen to enter the market on weakness at these high levels and again we see recent accumulation throughout the day. Any declines should be on low volume to fit the scenario above.

BUT that breakout is yet to happen, I've taken a position, a very aggressive one, but think a clearer pattern will emerge soon. What interests me is all those very high volume days peppered along the chart over the last year, with big white candles, someone is buying this up. Just check the chart and tick them off, no big offloads yet. Next step for drama/volatility is that recent high imo.

The fundamentals ppl can check the holdings in BMX to see which instos have the biggest lots and if they've offloaded since buying.

[RichKid]

What interests me is all those very high volume days peppered along the chart over the last year, with big white candles, someone is buying this up. Just check the chart and tick them off, no big offloads yet. Next step for drama/volatility is that recent high imo.

oops, I've made a mistake. I just checked the eod chart and reviewed some of Markmau's and Nick Radge's comments in the volume thread- looks like I underestimated the importance of the relatively low range bar recently, very high volume but sellers kept the price from going too high. So let's see if we can overcome those sellers, the follow through that was required after the big volume day is yet to show. I'm looking for the next minor pivot low of this triangle. Live and learn for me.

[Ann]

Hey Rich Kid,

I know I am only a second rate citizen..a female not to be taken seriously but.....hey babe this stock is seriously still in play. In fact the clever traders are probably loading up their portfolios....,nix me. I don't buy miners. So whatever I say is pure rot or unbiased observations.......you be the judge.

[brerwallabi]

a female not to be taken seriously
I take you very seriously Ann, you offer something in your posts that makes one think and look a bit deeper. We have had differences on opinions on a few stocks before on another site but on BMX I am with you all the way, btw I hold just a few more now he he.

[chicken]

Hey Rich Kid,

I know I am only a second rate citizen..a female not to be taken seriously but.....hey babe this stock is seriously still in play. In fact the clever traders are probably loading up their portfolios....,nix me. I don't buy miners. So whatever I say is pure rot or unbiased observations.......you be the judge.
Ann,you are like a breath of fresh air.....your posting is superb as its at least understood by all as far as 2nd rate citizen..who told you that...because the female brain is better organised than most or 95% of males brains...our testosterones get in the way too much...anyway thanks for your posting..as far as miners is concerned...well they are hot to trot...and that is where the money is at present...mind you only due to INDIA,and China who are buying like mad...this cycle will last for a few more years yet...and at present money can be made :2twocents By the way Ann...BMX will rise a lot further and my prediction is an increase of 100% on present price SP...as they are getting stuck into producing the goods....some funds selling Iluka to buy BMX..makes sense to me after all BMX only 40c at present.....and a huge upside potential.

[Bobby]

Hey All,
Hope you read this before opening today, now check the time of this post !.

Price & volume Jump today UP & UP :)

I bought more again ;)

Bob.

[chicken]

Hey All,
Hope you read this before opening today, now check the time of this post !.

Price & volume Jump today UP & UP :)

I bought more again ;)

Bob.
BOB, its only a matter of time before this share will move higher..why ,well they just started end of January their production and its ALL looking good and they will be the next Iluka...so at present lot of manipulations going on..but 40cents its a CHEAP buy with great prospects..I am in....for longterm hold....funds are buying and manipulating like today.....its a buy or hold.....their webside www.bemax.com.au :2twocents

[RichKid]

Hey All,
Hope you read this before opening today, now check the time of this post !.

Price & volume Jump today UP & UP :)

I bought more again ;)

Bob.

Any specific reason for your UP & UP comments Bob? The jump didn't happen today either. This is a ramp imo, please have something new and of substance to add- thanks. Goes for you too Chicken.

[pch]

I did some valuations on this stock based on growing EPS, selling in 10 years at a PE of 14 (generous I usually use 10 to be ultra conservative), and discounting by 11% to account for inflation and risk.

Comsec has their 06 EPS as 1c per share, 07 EPS as 2.4c and 08 EPS is wrong (they have the 07 figure there). If we assume 08 is going to be 3c per share (a growth of 20% from previous year), then the company has to grow 10% annually from then on to justify the *present* price.

If we grow the company at 20% annually instead of 10%, its the present value comes out at around 80c. Now its not unusual for companies to have massive growth, particularly when they are small. But its rare for a company to sustain such growth rates over the long term. 20% annually by any company would make for some very pleased shareholders.

Based on my sell PE and other assumptions, to make it worth $1, the company would have to grow at an average of around 25% annually.

Do you think it can acheive it?

(of course change the asusmptions and change the outcome significantly :-)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Any specific reason for your UP & UP comments Bob? The jump didn't happen today either. This is a ramp imo, please have something new and of substance to add- thanks. Goes for you too Chicken.

Although this stock is going nowhere at the moment, it appears to have money flowing into it even though sellers are starting take a hold. Indicators are confirming price action, which is all they are good for, but money is flowing into it more than out of it. Interesting :screwy:

You know what they say about support, keep hitting it and it is real......wher`s the resistance though?

[Bobby]

Any specific reason for your UP & UP comments Bob? The jump didn't happen today either. This is a ramp imo, please have something new and of substance to add- thanks. Goes for you too Chicken.

I don't ramp :mad: Richkid & Chicken does not as well, this stock is having a hassle to do whats natural with its strength.
Check out my post on Nick Radge - An example of trading with volume, posts - 25 his answer post 26.
After this manipulation is overcome & it will soon, I can then remind you of calling Me & Chicken rampers !.

Lets see who is RIGHT soon ?

Bob.

[RichKid]

I don't ramp :mad: Richkid & Chicken does not as well, this stock is having a hassle to do whats natural with its strength.
Check out my post on Nick Radge - An example of trading with volume, posts - 25 his answer post 26.
After this manipulation is overcome & it will soon, I can then remind you of calling Me & Chicken rampers !.

Lets see who is RIGHT soon ?

Bob.

Bob,

This is not about being right- if BMX goes to $10 then that's great. It's about the quality of postings. For the record I'm long BMX too so I'm not acting in self interest or trying to discourage you. But I can't really see these forums improving unless we at least maintain a standard.

I have read your posts in the volume analysis thread and that's excellent material that Nick has posted in reply to your post but, again, that is not the issue. Also note that as far as I know of Nick he doesn't say he can predict prices or that he knows exactly which way a stock will go- in his book he says each trade has a 50/50 chance of being a winner.

I am sorry if I have offended you but I do feel obligated to do what I can to maintain standards. I do err from time to time so feel free to contact the other moderators and we can vote on this issue if you think I'm biased. Member have been banned before for ramping as it is a serious matter. This thread discusses the ramping issue in more detail: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1145&highlight=ramp

[Bobby]

Bob,

This is not about being right- if BMX goes to $10 then that's great. It's about the quality of postings. For the record I'm long BMX too so I'm not acting in self interest or trying to discourage you. But I can't really see these forums improving unless we at least maintain a standard.

I have read your posts in the volume analysis thread and that's excellent material that Nick has posted in reply to your post but, again, that is not the issue. Also note that as far as I know of Nick he doesn't say he can predict prices or that he knows exactly which way a stock will go- in his book he says each trade has a 50/50 chance of being a winner.

I am sorry if I have offended you but I do feel obligated to do what I can to maintain standards. I do err from time to time so feel free to contact the other moderators and we can vote on this issue if you think I'm biased. Member have been banned before for ramping as it is a serious matter. This thread discusses the ramping issue in more detail: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1145&highlight=ramp
Hullo Richkid,
Thanks for the quick reply .
All my indicators said the stock was going up up, but the manipulators sold enough to slow the run .
I'm sure if the stock had jumped you would have not used the word ramp.
Your past input to this forum I have found excellent.

Regards Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hullo Richkid,
Thanks for the quick reply .
All my indicators said the stock was going up up, but the manipulators sold enough to slow the run .
I'm sure if the stock had jumped you would have not used the word ramp.
Your past input to this forum I have found excellent.

Regards Bob.

Bobby,

That explains why it is holding and not going anywhere. It has got to break sometime. I am bullish on this one but don`t hold yet. :dunno:

Just to add I have checked my charts and see money still going into it, certainly something to be aware of even though sellers are having their time with it.

[Joe Blow]

Hullo Richkid,
Thanks for the quick reply .
All my indicators said the stock was going up up, but the manipulators sold enough to slow the run .
I'm sure if the stock had jumped you would have not used the word ramp.
Your past input to this forum I have found excellent.

Regards Bob.

Bob,

I would like to jump in here if I may.

I think they key issue here is of supporting one's claims. If people are going to make predictions on a stocks price then they need to present some sort of case to support that point of view. I support RichKid 100% on this. It doesn't matter whether the reasons are based in fundamentals or t/a but they must be there in the post.

There are plenty of ramping room forums around the place and I certainly don't wish for ASF to become one. So lets all be careful to back up our claims and maintain a high standard here.

I'm sure you can appreciate that it makes a real difference. Please keep in mind that these are general comments and not directed at you in particular. With that said, lets get this thread back on topic!

[Bobby]

Bobby,

That explains why it is holding and not going anywhere. It has got to break sometime. I am bullish on this one but don`t hold yet. :dunno:

Hi Snake,
Your in tune with me ( I like that ) : ;)
As for Bemax, well there in my backyard so I do get to know stuff.

I have never held a position so huge in one stock before this Stock :D .

You take care Snake.
Bob.

[Bobby]

Bob,

I would like to jump in here if I may.

I think they key issue here is of supporting one's claims. If people are going to make predictions on a stocks price then they need to present some sort of case to support that point of view. I support RichKid 100% on this. It doesn't matter whether the reasons are based in fundamentals or t/a but they must be there in the post.

There are plenty of ramping room forums around the place and I certainly don't wish for ASF to become one. So lets all be careful to back up our claims and maintain a high standard here.

I'm sure you can appreciate that it makes a real difference. Please keep in mind that these are general comments and not directed at you in particular. With that said, lets get this thread back on topic!

Hullo Joe.
Understand this .
Regards Bob

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I have never held a position so huge in one stock before this Stock :D .
Bob.

Hi Bob,
Lets hope you`re right on this one. Your largest position.
:aus:
Cheers

[Bobby]

Hi Bob,
Lets hope you`re right on this one. Your largest position.
:aus:
Cheers
Yes Snake,
All the hard work plus the heartbreak of my time on earth & knowing the value of a $buck, yep I have a big position :) .

But so what ? :p: you play your best !.

Bob.

[krissy]

Not looking so good now. Any thoughts of how low price will go? A chart by Ann would be much appreciated :)

[Knobby22]

I said there was too much exuberance and Ann's charts appeared to confirm this.

We will now have some consolidation before the next rise.

This is where all the weak and impatient bulls and rampers sell as they panic then panic again as a rise occurs and they desperately try to get back in.

Patience required. Sorry for displaying my cynicism of the average punter er investor in the market.

[pch]

Knobby, got any ideas of the earning growth of this stock? I am wondering if they can sustain 10-15% growth annually. After reading the report by:

BC CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH COMMENT http://www.bemax.com.au/RBCCapMarkets0206.pdf

They certainly look interesting.. but conservative earnings growth has them looking fairly priced at present..

Care to take a guess at 2008 EPS? :-)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Bobby,

That explains why it is holding and not going anywhere. It has got to break sometime. I am bullish on this one but don`t hold yet. :dunno:

Just to add I have checked my charts and see money still going into it, certainly something to be aware of even though sellers are having their time with it.

Well,

Some trading days can make you realise what is really happening. Sellers have taken a hold at the moment. Will watch though. :southpark

[Bobby]

Well,

Some trading days can make you realise what is really happening. Sellers have taken a hold at the moment. Will watch though. :southpark

Hullo Snake , today made me feel almost sick :( but PCH last post was uplifting as they should be .45c at the moment !.)

Will hold for now .

Bob.

[pch]

uplifting? I try to be as emotionless as possible as I find blatant ramping annoying :-) But read that report - its pretty positive. Ideally you should hunt down some other reports as well. One good report doesn't maketh the stock..

I recall in that report I mentioned the analyst has them at 65c if their plans pan out without any hitch. However they mentioned that it is too far away to count with any certainty and arrived at a figure of 56c. (still thats a nice gain from 40c)

If you also read that report, a lot of the risk is reduced with this stock because they have sales contracts in place and a good management team that (apparently) knows their stuff.

Now if I do a similar calculation to the report (NPV) my assumptions are obviously different because I come out at 30c at first.. but don't panic until you see the assumptions.

1. I assume EPS for 06 as 1c, EPS for 07 as 2.4c (as per that analyst report) and EPS for 08 at 3c (for no other reason that its a rounded figure higher that 07)
2. I assume 6% per annum EPS growth after that
3. I assume they pay a dividend in 08 of 1c per share
4. I assume when I sell them in 10 years the PE is 13
5. I apply a discount of all of this of 11% to account for inflation and risk

(there are a few other assumptions as well but they don't matter for now)

They are pretty conservative assumptions I think.. If we grow earnings by 10% per annum instead of 6% we hit 40c.

If EPS is high in 08 (still ramping up production) and is 4c per share instead of 3c we hit 53c

So by adjusting the numbers, you can make this stock look good. (mind you any stock can be made to look good with growth rates of above 20% per annum :-) You just have to ask yourself whether the assumptions are accurate and whether the company can acheive these figures realistically.

Of course, whether the market agrees with you is another story..

[Nick Radge]

Too true Snake. A wide range, close on the low and high volume can only mean sellers, and as you say, they remain in control. This was shown on the weekly charts several weeks ago. The price cannot go up until those sellers are fulfilled and my geuss is that some recent longs are getting nervous which will only add to the supply. It will be time to buy when they capitulate.

Nick

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[Knobby22]

Good article find pch and good comments.

I estimate higher as the resource is very large and the assumptions made in the article are conservative. Though there should be a discount till contracts are in order and full output is reached, this company was already in the mineral sands business before this and I am (over?)confident that the project will not have any hitches. Been holding for a while so have no need to attract capital gains tax this financial year by selling.

I would have thought 3c per share was reasonable. If they are in contract, I would expect further efficiencies and no reason for eps to drop as per the brokers report. It is not however the clear bargain it was a year ago when I bought in.

Wouldn't be suprised to see a price drop short term to 35c as stop losses trip. Stage 2 adds more blue sky and doesn't seem to be included in the valuation adequately. The project reminds me a little of Woodside with its large gas reserves. It will be relatively simple for Bemax to produce more product should demand require it.

I said very early in this thread 80c. I still think we can get there but it is probably at least two years away. But hey, I can wait for this sort of return.

[Knobby22]

Hullo Snake , today made me feel almost sick :( but PCH last post was uplifting as they should be .45c at the moment !.)

Will hold for now .

Bob.

Bob

It is this sort of comment that brings a smile to all the technical traders out there like Wayne (no offence Wayne). They rely partly on human nature to make their money.

Regards

Knobby

[chicken]

Hi Snake,
Your in tune with me ( I like that ) : ;)
As for Bemax, well there in my backyard so I do get to know stuff.

I have never held a position so huge in one stock before this Stock :D .

You take care Snake.
Bob.
I agree with you bob..this stock has a hugh upside potential..I expect their growths for this year to be up to 100% of last year why...their new venture is going full tack in victoria ..read all about it on www.bemax.com.au as far as their profit growth I expect a 100% increase....this stock has a hugh upside..funds managers shaking the tree...to shake out weak hands..bottom draw for this share...I expect it to be a lot higher than present price by year end...one for my retirement fund....cheap at present price :2twocents

[Bobby]

I agree with you bob..this stock has a hugh upside potential..I expect their growths for this year to be up to 100% of last year why...their new venture is going full tack in victoria ..read all about it on www.bemax.com.au as far as their profit growth I expect a 100% increase....this stock has a hugh upside..funds managers shaking the tree...to shake out weak hands..bottom draw for this share...I expect it to be a lot higher than present price by year end...one for my retirement fund....cheap at present price :2twocents

Hullo Chicken,
Yep I'm not to concerned at the moment, just wish they were this price last Friday when I bought again. :rolleyes:

Have Fun Bob.

[$20shoes]

It seems uncanny how the price pattern from 28th October to around 28th Jan seems to be playing out again in a very similar pattern.
Let me take some technical licence - In the chart, I have divided price action into two distinct boxes. You can see that both boxes commence on the left with a sharp price rally, and then correct to a point where the price finds support (price is somewhat hammered out in both). A short time later the price gaps up before sellers take control, pushing the price down to its trendline. In both "boxes" the price action of finding support at the trendline (same area of support as the 'hammer" played out several weeks earlier) plays out over 2 months exactly.
Once again, it looks like there will be some testing of the trendline. Will this last for a month like in the 1st box? Let's hope for all holders, that history repeats - we may be in for a nice rally in the not too distant future.

[Bobby]

It seems uncanny how the price pattern from 28th October to around 28th Jan seems to be playing out again in a very similar pattern.
Let me take some technical licence - In the chart, I have divided price action into two distinct boxes. You can see that both boxes commence on the left with a sharp price rally, and then correct to a point where the price finds support (price is somewhat hammered out in both). A short time later the price gaps up before sellers take control, pushing the price down to its trendline. In both "boxes" the price action of finding support at the trendline (same area of support as the 'hammer" played out several weeks earlier) plays out over 2 months exactly.
Once again, it looks like there will be some testing of the trendline. Will this last for a month like in the 1st box? Let's hope for all holders, that history repeats - we may be in for a nice rally in the not too distant future.

Most interesting chart $20shoes !.

Sure has got me tempted again, maybe just one more buy :D .

Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

It`s down to 35.5cents on heavier volume. Is it going to reject 35cents?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

It`s a slaughter house today 1 buyer left at 35cents.

Bobby and Chicken I hope you are doing alright today.

It`s down to 33cent bidders.. :eek:

[chicken]

It`s a slaughter house today 1 buyer left at 35cents.

Bobby and Chicken I hope you are doing alright today.

It`s down to 33cent bidders.. :eek:
It bounced off as some funds been shorting to get more stocks..as far as going lower forget it as news will be out by weekend...check what the brokers said..this is good stock..with alot of upside yet...made the ASX 300 and now climbing out of the man made trough....some one shorted this one real hard....bought some more today at 34cents..suckers selling..LOLOLO

[Bobby]

It bounced off as some funds been shorting to get more stocks..as far as going lower forget it as news will be out by weekend...check what the brokers said..this is good stock..with alot of upside yet...made the ASX 300 and now climbing out of the man made trough....some one shorted this one real hard....bought some more today at 34cents..suckers selling..LOLOLO

Hi Chicken,
Been out for the last couple of hours so when I checked in -Ahh F AHH Hell stuff Whats happening Ouch !! :swear: .

But now agree with you about the shorting !.
The close today will tell the real story ;) .

Hullo Snake -Thanks for thinking of me mate :) .

Bob.

[ctp6360]

I'm one of the suckers who sold at 35.5 today Chicken, we'll see how it goes. I hope the announcement is good because looking at the graph the best you could say is that BMX is going sideways.

[Bobby]

I'm one of the suckers who sold at 35.5 today Chicken, we'll see how it goes. I hope the announcement is good because looking at the graph the best you could say is that BMX is going sideways.

Hey ctp,

Don't think your a sucker for selling at 35.5, almost got out this morning at .36, but I'm in love with them :eek: .

Have fun Bob.

[chicken]

Now back to 37cents suckers got done..some one triggered the sell sides by shorting..well looking good again....see what brokers said......I said this would happen why sell a share with this potential.... :swear:

[chicken]

Now back to 37cents suckers got done..some one triggered the sell sides by shorting..well looking good again....see what brokers said......I said this would happen why sell a share with this potential.... :swear:
As some one said on another board..today was a sucker shakeout.....should go higher tomorrow.....Sabrethooth bought more and I bought at 35cents..... :D

[Bobby]

As some one said on another board..today was a sucker shakeout.....should go higher tomorrow.....Sabrethooth bought more and I bought at 35cents..... :D

Chicken.
Well picked , at one stage I almost pooped myself :eek: but lucky I held on.!

Should have picked up more as well, tomorrow?, maybe to late .

Bob.

[Duckman#72]

Chicken.
Well picked , at one stage I almost pooped myself :eek: but lucky I held on.!

Should have picked up more as well, tomorrow?, maybe to late .

Bob.

I've only just checked prices out today.

Given how things are falling into place for this company - to pick them up at 33c seems a steal.

The next set of financial reporting is due in mid April (according to company)which may give the SP a kick along. I haven't heard of any hiccups and sales from Pooncarie will start to filter through.

I had to laugh at the BMX Research Comment put out by RBC Capital Markets under the heading valuation...and I quote, "it's difficult to analyze mineral sands' companies with a high degree of confidence, and.....mineral sands equities trading at a discount to the resource sector, often in the order of 60% to 70%. Furthermore, the sector is generaly poorly understood by the wider investment community." Ain't that the truth!!!!!

Sometimes I think that there are only a handful of people that are privy to the ASF site that know how good they are!!!

Duckman

[brerwallabi]

Sometimes I think that there are only a handful of people that are privy to the ASF site that know how good they are!!!

Duckman
With 900,000 shares on issue sometimes I think that its hard to keep it a secret. It doen't matter how good they are, selling at 42cps at buying back at 35cps is making money thank you BMX.
Sometimes I think there are only a handful of people on ASF that are privy to the ways of making money trading.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

As some one said on another board..today was a sucker shakeout.....should go higher tomorrow.....Sabrethooth bought more and I bought at 35cents..... :D

34 or 35cents Chicken? Check your posts.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi Chicken,
Been out for the last couple of hours so when I checked in -Ahh F AHH Hell stuff Whats happening Ouch !! :swear: .

But now agree with you about the shorting !.
The close today will tell the real story ;) .

Hullo Snake -Thanks for thinking of me mate :) .

Bob.


Bob,
I nearly bought the spike at 34cents. It moved too quickly and missed it, then had to go out. :alien2: Those aliens were calling me. :D
Snake

[Duckman#72]

With 900,000 shares on issue sometimes I think that its hard to keep it a secret. It doen't matter how good they are, selling at 42cps at buying back at 35cps is making money thank you BMX.
Sometimes I think there are only a handful of people on ASF that are privy to the ways of making money trading.


That's my point. The falling share price doesn't match with the company's fundamentals. Check out your own earlier post. Tell me you thought they would fall to 33c a month ago when you set the mark at 50c.

What will the SP do this month? Or is your specialty hindsight? ;)

[Bobby]

Bob,
I nearly bought the spike at 34cents. It moved too quickly and missed it, then had to go out. :alien2: Those aliens were calling me. :D
Snake
Greetings Snake,
Yes they sure did move quick today, sorry you missed buying as there was a real bargain window .

Most of the mad action happened when I was out, now maybe it was luck that I was !.

Are the aliens those little jap chicks ? :D

Bob.

[chicken]

Longterm up but at present funds are playing with BMX...when news out will go higher Brokers recomendation is a buy ..see their reports....www.bemax.com.au :D

[brerwallabi]

That's my point. The falling share price doesn't match with the company's fundamentals. Check out your own earlier post. Tell me you thought they would fall to 33c a month ago when you set the mark at 50c.

What will the SP do this month? Or is your specialty hindsight? ;)
No I did think we would see 33 cents again, as I posted many months ago on this thread I sold at 30.5cps when it was not doing anything, again it was not doing anything so I sold I want to make money today not tomorrow or next week, I will take an opportunity to make money when it presents itself and my account looks a lot better. I buy to make money as soon as I possibly can if something stalls then I am out and use the capital elsewhere. It was very fortunate when BMX fell to 35cps and I had some unapplied capital that I could purchase again. I truely thought this was worth around 50cps, some others seem to think its worth more. 35.5 to 42 cents is a tidy little profit I am not embarrased by selling early (even if something does not retrace and continuesto goup) and my trading strategy is a trading strategy not an investment strategy.
I have no hesitation in exiting BMX if it falls to 31.5cps. I hope now that it gets back to where it has been recently, but a nasty looking ascending triangle there too, isn't there? My speciality is making money quickly and honestly.

[brerwallabi]

In last message that should be a decending triangle.

[77TRADER77]

HI YU ALL BMX BOYZ
I LAST BOUGHT IN AT 39 CENTS AND IF THEY GIVE ME JUST A SHORT SHOT AT SELLING MY BHP HOLDING At MY $28-00 (ITS $27 today) ILL SMASHEM (BMX AT "ANYTHING 37CENTS OR UNDER ..........."WHAT A "STEAL"
I LL THEN SELL MY BMX AT 44CENTS (YES YES THEY WILL HIT 44C) AND JUST BUY BHP BACK AS THEY COME OFF THe $28 AND RIDEM To $31 THATS MY PLAN....... .Shhhhhhhhhhhh dont tell!! THEY MIGHT EVEN SEE BEMAX DOWN TO 35 AGAIN .....OH THEY ARE SOOOOOOOOOO SILLY-FORGET YOUR GRAPHS.THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS ARE USING "ANTI-GRAPHS" techniques.
JUST FOR THE POOR LITTLE HUNGRY TRADERS.....ULTRA CAREFUL FROM 12 MONTHS FROM NOW...DONT BE TOO GREEDY..GREED IS GOOD

IM AN INDIVIDUAL AND IM OK
YOUR DECISIONS ARE YOUR OWN -THIS POST IS NO RECOMMENDATION

[sandik17]

HI YU ALL BMX BOYZ
I LAST BOUGHT IN AT 39 CENTS AND IF THEY GIVE ME JUST A SHORT SHOT AT SELLING MY BHP HOLDING At MY $28-00 (ITS $27 today) ILL SMASHEM (BMX AT "ANYTHING 37CENTS OR UNDER ..........."WHAT A "STEAL"
I LL THEN SELL MY BMX AT 44CENTS (YES YES THEY WILL HIT 44C) AND JUST BUY BHP BACK AS THEY COME OFF THe $28 AND RIDEM To $31 THATS MY PLAN....... .Shhhhhhhhhhhh dont tell!! THEY MIGHT EVEN SEE BEMAX DOWN TO 35 AGAIN .....OH THEY ARE SOOOOOOOOOO SILLY-FORGET YOUR GRAPHS.THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS ARE USING "ANTI-GRAPHS" techniques.
JUST FOR THE POOR LITTLE HUNGRY TRADERS.....ULTRA CAREFUL FROM 12 MONTHS FROM NOW...DONT BE TOO GREEDY..GREED IS GOOD

IM AN INDIVIDUAL AND IM OK
YOUR DECISIONS ARE YOUR OWN -THIS POST IS NO RECOMMENDATION

Hhhhmmmmm????

[It's Snake Pliskin]

HI YU ALL BMX BOYZ
I LAST BOUGHT IN AT 39 CENTS AND IF THEY GIVE ME JUST A SHORT SHOT AT SELLING MY BHP HOLDING At MY $28-00 (ITS $27 today) ILL SMASHEM (BMX AT "ANYTHING 37CENTS OR UNDER ..........."WHAT A "STEAL"
I LL THEN SELL MY BMX AT 44CENTS (YES YES THEY WILL HIT 44C) AND JUST BUY BHP BACK AS THEY COME OFF THe $28 AND RIDEM To $31 THATS MY PLAN....... .Shhhhhhhhhhhh dont tell!! THEY MIGHT EVEN SEE BEMAX DOWN TO 35 AGAIN .....OH THEY ARE SOOOOOOOOOO SILLY-FORGET YOUR GRAPHS.THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS ARE USING "ANTI-GRAPHS" techniques.
JUST FOR THE POOR LITTLE HUNGRY TRADERS.....ULTRA CAREFUL FROM 12 MONTHS FROM NOW...DONT BE TOO GREEDY..GREED IS GOOD

IM AN INDIVIDUAL AND IM OK
YOUR DECISIONS ARE YOUR OWN -THIS POST IS NO RECOMMENDATION

Please explain.

[wayneL]

THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS ARE USING "ANTI-GRAPHS" techniques.


Impossible!!!!!!

The "anti-graph" techniques will be evident in the graph, and therefore able to be graphed. :D Nothing is invisible :D

I prefer "chart".

[chicken]

Finished at 38c...as some one said either oversold or announcement on its way up 4% today...intrest is coming back.... :2twocents

[zoo]

Hi chicken...I feel bmx is a strong trading stock in sub 40c range for the short term..yep, I added at 37c, wished I had been patient a bit longer but thats life. IMHO its a great little trader, just dont throw all in the market, keep some back for that special day when the big boys go hunting...lol. My views only, do your homework as always...:)

[chicken]

Hi chicken...I feel bmx is a strong trading stock in sub 40c range for the short term..yep, I added at 37c, wished I had been patient a bit longer but thats life. IMHO its a great little trader, just dont throw all in the market, keep some back for that special day when the big boys go hunting...lol. My views only, do your homework as always...:)
I agree with you but sooner or later this SP will rise as there is value here..they are now the 5th largest producer of titanium.....so we will see a better SP soon.... :D

[Bobby]

I agree with you but sooner or later this SP will rise as there is value here..they are now the 5th largest producer of titanium.....so we will see a better SP soon.... :D

If this mob are still flat by Friday I will be very upset & that will not be good ! :mad:

Bob.

[Duckman#72]

Has anyone compared Olympia Resources(OLY) to Bemax?

Olympia could be BMX 's little mineral sands brother in some regards. BMX certainly more advanced - has separation plant at completion and sales dribbling in but tenements for Olympia sound larger.

But market cap for Olympia is only $15M at the moment. Can someone please explain why BMX is only 39c at the stage they are at and yet Olympia is trading at about 24c and is yet is so much further behind developmentally?

Duckman

[trader]

Has anyone compared Olympia Resources(OLY) to Bemax?

Olympia could be BMX 's little mineral sands brother in some regards. BMX certainly more advanced - has separation plant at completion and sales dribbling in but tenements for Olympia sound larger.

But market cap for Olympia is only $15M at the moment. Can someone please explain why BMX is only 39c at the stage they are at and yet Olympia is trading at about 24c and is yet is so much further behind developmentally?

Duckman
Maybe it has something to do with the fact that OLY only has 63 million shares on issue and BMX 903 million.

[zoo]

BMX oficial opening in Broken Hill on 21st April.NSW Premier will open proceedings. Approx 2 weeks after that the first trains carrying BMX product are expected to roll out on their way to Port Adelaide docks for shipping. Hopefully the news helps propel the sp in a forward direction. All things being equal we should get good action, depending on share price at time of news. Cheers

[Duckman#72]

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that OLY only has 63 million shares on issue and BMX 903 million.

No - sorry. Didn't explain myself I guess.

Apart from shares outstanding - looking at the fundamentals I only see OLY at 15-16c. Doesn't matter I guess as long as BMX keeps going up.

[krissy]

Strong volume, looks the start of a new uptrend :)

[sandik17]

BMX oficial opening in Broken Hill on 21st April.NSW Premier will open proceedings. Approx 2 weeks after that the first trains carrying BMX product are expected to roll out on their way to Port Adelaide docks for shipping. Hopefully the news helps propel the sp in a forward direction. All things being equal we should get good action, depending on share price at time of news. Cheers


SURELY....surely...this is going to be the week for BMX with the official opening on Friday...will be interesting to watch what happens this week. :rolleyes:

[Porper]

SURELY....surely...this is going to be the week for BMX with the official opening on Friday...will be interesting to watch what happens this week. :rolleyes:

Everybody knows the opening is next week, so I doubt it will make much difference.

I sold out for a tiny profit last week, sick of waiting with this one.Huge sell depth and done nothing in the last few weeks when the whole market is having a surge.

Quicker moving stocks around in my view.Now I have sold of course I expect it will double by Friday.:)

[el_ninj0]

For all the good things BMX has going for it, their website is absolute rubbish. They severly need an complete overhawl of it. It looks as though its going to be a highly profitable venture in my opinion if it gets off the ground ok.

[zoo]

Its already off the ground and running but I guess you mean they need to show the results financially.Im sure it will come sooner rather than later then a rerating of the sp should follow.

[chicken]

NOW that it is officially operating....did anyone notice..they have $17million mined stock sitting there...this share is ready for rerating...read what is said :D

[Duckman#72]

NOW that it is officially operating....did anyone notice..they have $17million mined stock sitting there...this share is ready for rerating...read what is said :D

Good to hear from you Chicken

See if you can work some of your SBM magic on BMX!!!

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Did anyone watch the BMX bandits?

[RichKid]

Did anyone watch the BMX bandits?

Wasn't Nickole Kidman in it- big hair and all???

BMX, the stock, appears to be in a holding pattern, low volatility and low volume, normally means a significant move in some direction, guess ppl may be awaiting for the cash to flow in once the stockpile has been shipped.

[$20shoes]

Snake, what's actually happening here is more a a classic episode of "the Henderson Kids" where Brains tied up all The " Brown Street Boys' " BMXs - they weren't going anywhere fast. I think it took Vinny to break 'em out before they could all hop on their bikes and go for a ride.

[zoo]

http://www.barrierminer.com.au/archives/BM2006-04-28.pdf

Page 52 gives a good common sense approach to bmx. A good site to keep up to date on any bmx news.

Cheers

[RichKid]

http://www.barrierminer.com.au/archives/BM2006-04-28.pdf

Page 52 gives a good common sense approach to bmx. A good site to keep up to date on any bmx news.

Cheers

Thanks Pete, that was a good read, nice to get an eye into the local scene too.
I've been doing a bit of general research on BMX, this broker report is the latest that I've seen, it's probably been on the BMX website for awhile: http://www.bemax.com.au/RBCCapMarkets0206.pdf

Looks like the next big event will be the upgrade to resource status of the Snapper deposit later in the year, base valuation was 45c so we are well within the comfort zone, especially as they were accounting for commissioning risk- which is now gone.

Does anyone know what Fat Prophets think of BMX atm?

All in all it looks like it may be a bit quiet for the moment, maybe ranging for a few months? Does anyone see any reason why it should move up strongly in the next month or two, most major target are medium to longterm, certainly a good one for those longterm holders. I couldn't find any price charts for the main minerals that BMX deals in but apparently prices are expected to hold or increase. Please post some charts for ilmenite, zircon etc if you know where to find em- I don't.

[Duckman#72]

I couldn't find any price charts for the main minerals that BMX deals in but apparently prices are expected to hold or increase. Please post some charts for ilmenite, zircon etc if you know where to find em- I don't.

Hi Rich

On the front page of the Business section of The Australian there was an article about resource prices with the heading..."Commodities Collapse Tipped".

Anyway they had a graphic showing different resources (tin,silver,alumina etc) and the % fall they would currently need to meet the long term average. Every mineral was over the long term average except two - yep, you guessed it - Rutile and Ilmenite.They actually have to gain 10% before they reach their long term avarge price!! And for good measure Zircon was not very far up the list (20% over long term average).

Duckman

[RichKid]

Hi Rich

On the front page of the Business section of The Australian there was an article about resource prices with the heading..."Commodities Collapse Tipped".

Anyway they had a graphic showing different resources (tin,silver,alumina etc) and the % fall they would currently need to meet the long term average. Every mineral was over the long term average except two - yep, you guessed it - Rutile and Ilmenite.They actually have to gain 10% before they reach their long term avarge price!! And for good measure Zircon was not very far up the list (20% over long term average).

Duckman

Thanks Duckman,
Do you have a link to the graphs? or a scan? If not that's ok, I couldn't find it.

[Duckman#72]

Thanks Duckman,
Do you have a link to the graphs? or a scan? If not that's ok, I couldn't find it.

Sorry Rich - it was in yesterday's Australian - not todays.
Try this link - although I'm not sure it comes up with the graphic.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,18995710-643,00.html

If it doesn't work - go to google and type in Andrew Trouson (author) Commodities Collapse - should take you straight there.

Cheers
Duckman

[RichKid]

Sorry Rich - it was in yesterday's Australian - not todays.
Try this link - although I'm not sure it comes up with the graphic.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,18995710-643,00.html

If it doesn't work - go to google and type in Andrew Trouson (author) Commodities Collapse - should take you straight there.

Cheers
Duckman

Thanks Duckman, I think I read that but didn't realise it had a graph, they never publish the charts online, I'll track down a hardcopy.

[RichKid]

This looks like an intermediate wave 4 correction (or at worst a major w2 unfolding slowly) to my inexperienced eye, waiting for it to start impulsing again. Guess no news means people sell, a lot of these speccies just drift after some big event is out of the way. Good thing is volume hasn't really been huge- but now that I've said that it may change! Not that it matters, a correction is a correction.
Certainly some buying at these levels (see tails) but it's early days yet so we may go lower.

[Bobby]

Yuk :( todays close is a worry.

Must be some CFD shorters involved in this slide.

Bob.

[chicken]

Yuk :( todays close is a worry.

Must be some CFD shorters involved in this slide.

Bob.
I have a large holding in this at 39cents...Patience is needed....but we will see action in the next 3 months....I CAN WAIT....like MGX....the big boys are shaking the tree......and the once who are pillow biters as some one called them will be shaken out..I am looking to buy more as BMX would make a great TO target.....Crystall who own 244million shares are not worried....they also wait but could sell to a company who wants this group...BMX said they would become the worlds largest Taitanium producer....now that when they get there will fire this SP in the meantime...wait...patience :D

[Knobby22]

I bought mine at 14c. I expect it will be a few more months before we get some announcements.
I expect the price will continue to drop till for at least another month, maybe 2. If the price gets to 28 -30c range which appears to be a support level, I will buy more.