IIN - iiNet

[doctorj]

For those of you familar with ASX:IIN, they've been trading in a decent up channel for some time now. They broke resistance on the upside of their channel on the 25th (above ave. vol) and it looks as the rest of this week, in particular tomorrow will indicate whether or not this was a real break out.

IIN comes with good and bad. They're a lightly traded stock, but they do benefit from being well cashed up, having a well established brand and a reputation as innovators in their industry. They have also placed bids on MCI's Ozemail which, if successful will be the latest result of an aggressive and successful takeover program.

Their MD, Michael Malone may be inexperienced as far as Directorships go, but actually started this company in his mother's garage in the '90s and has a good rapport with shareholders and customers alike.

Here is the chart. IIN does appear worthy of further investigation from those that currently do hold.

NB. I currently do not hold IIN, but have up until recently and do intend on it in the future.

[tech/a]

doc

Certaintly looks good retest will be complete and positive with trading above $3.60 as you know.

[serp]

IIN plumeted over the last few days to a $1.89 from around $2.60 ish. Consistantly going down from $3.44 August 2005. Really this company has good fundementals and even though the sector has taken a hit recently with T2 shares going south and others I wonder where this dive will end. Could be a good buy in the end. Anyone elses thoughts on IIN?

*I don't hold IIN, the only thing I have to do with them is that I am a residential customer :) *

[It's Snake Pliskin]

IIN plumeted over the last few days to a $1.89 from around $2.60 ish. Consistantly going down from $3.44 August 2005. Really this company has good fundementals and even though the sector has taken a hit recently with T2 shares going south and others I wonder where this dive will end. Could be a good buy in the end. Anyone elses thoughts on IIN?

*I don't hold IIN, the only thing I have to do with them is that I am a residential customer :) *

Serp,

Don't fall in love with the fundamentals. The price is telling you all you need to know.

Snake

[BraceFace]

I'm with Serp on this. I have been following Iinet since 2003 and this company has gone from strength to strength. Starting out as a local dial up provided in WA it is now one the largest ISP's in Australia and New Zealand.

A combination of factors and has seen the share price of Iinet plummet (I got out at $2.65 :) ) - culminating with a recent announcement that has obviously seen some nervous investors jump ship. IMO - I think the dot com bust still has a lot of investors worried about IT type companies...

Companies with good fundamentals do recover (NAB, Brambles for example) after bad news. You've just got to wait it out. I guess the hardest part is deciding when to jump back on. You dont want to leave your money in something too long if it is going sideways! Picking the trough before the eventual uptrend is also frought with peril. Thats one for the chart analyists....

Macquarie still have Iinet's price target at over $3.00 even in light of recent days events. To me a price $1.80 seems like good value, but you might have to wait a while before you take a profit.

I no longer hold Iinet but it's definitely on my radar at the moment.

[Fleeta]

I sold my IIN shares on Nov 28 for $2.62. How lucky was I!!! I bought them for $2.80 in Oct 04 and thought they were going nowhere. Was also worried about the industry as it is highly competitive, meaning that companies get screwed on margins. While IIN is rapidly growing its customer base, its long term profitability is questionable - especially considering that Telstra will not be doing anyone any favours as it trys to rebound.

[doctorj]

The drama is that TLS are changing their business model and IIN have had to renegotiate their agreements with telstra. MM released a fairly strong profit warning for '06 and '07 on the basis that only 50-60,000 DSL subscribers are currently using iiNet DSLAM's.

A few weeks ago they also stopped taking new regional subscribers in protest to Telstra's proposed fee hikes. This week they've recommenced acceptance of regional subscribers but are now only giving them access to 512k DSL at the same price the rest of us are getting 1.5mbps.

The good news is these negotiations will affect all companies. Provided iiNet comes out the otherside well enough it should afford them several acquisition opportunities.

[el_ninj0]

IINet are strong, they have a huge customer base, and are only really just getting started in telecommuncations. In my opinion(definetely not a recommendation), This is a strong buy at this price, as it will come back around next report. The big drop was due to the sale of their wireless subsidary, which is a bad thing, but it was costing them too much money. But I believe that they have a big future, not only in internet but in VOIP aswell. It may even one day be bigger than their internet operations.
Speculation of course....
Good luck to those who hold.

[serp]

Wow still on a slide to 1.72 today, I wonder how low it will go?

[mit]

Looking at the chart, it has gone through the high from 2000 so there is little technically going for it at the moment.

MIT
My opinion only of course

[serp]

down another 6c today, be interested to see how low it goes. Not quite sure what is causing such a HUGE haemorrhage.

[white_rabit]

Serp, I think braceface summed it up nicely

"culminating with a recent announcement that has obviously seen some nervous investors jump ship. IMO - I think the dot com bust still has a lot of investors worried about IT type companies..."

I like IINET and I'm expecting a slide until Dec 20 when MM make the next big announcement.

on the upside, its another reason to hate telstra! LOL

[serp]

Oh well they had a sharp bouce yesterday, be interesting to see if it will hold stable around this mark or not.

Also how do you know about the future announcements?

[mit]

I took a small speculative position yesterday. The drop in volume and small range today bothers me a bit. I might get out on Monday/Tuesday unless it moves a bit.

MIT

[serp]

I took a small speculative position yesterday. The drop in volume and small range today bothers me a bit. I might get out on Monday/Tuesday unless it moves a bit.

MIT

Went up a fair bit over the last few days than dropped nearly 10% today. Hope you got in and out alright!

[mit]

Taken for a big ride up and down. I bought at $1.76 so I am a couple of cents ahead still. See what tomorrow brings.

MIT

[serp]

Taken for a big ride up and down. I bought at $1.76 so I am a couple of cents ahead still. See what tomorrow brings.

MIT

Not looking good, still a high volume traded but still trending down.

[mit]

Not looking good, still a high volume traded but still trending down.

Hasn't hit the stop yet. I was going to sell today if it closed down. I've noticed that if a stock goes down three days in a row after some news then it is a dead duck.

So lives for another day.

MIT

[serp]

It's been yoyo'ing for the last couple of days.

[dj_ajay]

MMmm...I thought it should have recovered by now. Looks more of a long term buy now.
Will be interesting to hear what is happening with their MSAN rollout.

Where's THE ANALYST when you need him...... ;)

[slimtrader]

my view. this stock will continue to struggle over the long term as it has serious lack of sustainable competitive advantage. Big muscle man TLS will continue to squeeze at all ends.

[RichKid]

Oops! Bet very many were not expecting this, wonder how bad the downgrade will really be...just as it was coming out of the downtrend too.


1 May 2006
The Manager
Company Announcements Office
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Level 4, 20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000

UPDATE ON SUSPENSION
iiNet Limited (ASX: IIN) advises that its shares will remain suspended from ASX trading.

The Company’s financial performance in the March quarter has been well below expectations.

This situation was not identified earlier due to deficiencies in forecasting and clerical errors in revenue recognition that have only recently emerged. It has become clear, however, that expected EBITDA for the 2006 financial year will be significantly below the Company’s guidance to the market.

The Company, in conjunction with its auditors Ernst & Young, is currently investigating the issues that have arisen. This work is well advanced and also involves a thorough analysis of the variances between the guidance and the actual financial results in the March quarter. These issues are material, but the underlying business remains strong.

Operationally, customer numbers and service delivery continue to track well. ADSL, VoIP and Telephony growth is higher than expected. Churn of fixed monthly dial up accounts and call centre performance have improved. The New Zealand business (iHug) is performing well and is expected to produce an EBITDA result for the full year above the level included in the guidance.

However, the Company believes it is prudent to remain suspended from trading until it is in a position to provide the market with an analysis of the performance to date and a revised guidance for the full financial year.
The Company currently expects to resume trading during the week commencing 8th May, 2006.

Stephen Fewster
Company Secretary
Phone: (08) 9213 1358

[OzFrisky]

This whole iinet situation looks really messy to me. They stop trading on their shares for over a week, then finally announce that its because of a significant miscalculation in their earnings and say that they may start trading again next week. I'd be expecting a pretty major fall in the share price when trading resumes and I dont see a very happy future. Telstra seems to be really hurting iinet at the moment.

[rub92me]

Looks very ominous to me. "clerical errors in revenue recognition" that have led to material differences. Yeah right, and senior iiNet management didn't spot this?? Doesn't exactly instill confidence in their Corporate Governance. Not on an Enron scale of course, but investor confidence will be shot after this...

[pch]

I bought iinet a long time ago now, and I did it because at the time I worked for another ISP and they hired the best Cisco guy in Perth at that time. As a competitor during that time I had grudging respect for them. I expect the price will drop to what I paid for them.

I have no doubt they really understand the ISP business and made a lot of smart moves, but I think that the management team lack the experience of managing a larger company. They are no longer the nimble small company they once were and I think this debacle illustrates that the management of this company are overrated.

However, I do beleive in the long term they will recover from this. They still have a much lower cost base than a lot of their competitors and still have some very experienced staff that I have a lot of respect for.

I wonder if this will cost Michael Malone his job though? There will be serious shareholder fury..

[RichKid]

I bought iinet a long time ago now, and I did it because at the time I worked for another ISP and they hired the best Cisco guy in Perth at that time. As a competitor during that time I had grudging respect for them. I expect the price will drop to what I paid for them.

I have no doubt they really understand the ISP business and made a lot of smart moves, but I think that the management team lack the experience of managing a larger company. They are no longer the nimble small company they once were and I think this debacle illustrates that the management of this company are overrated.

However, I do beleive in the long term they will recover from this. They still have a much lower cost base than a lot of their competitors and still have some very experienced staff that I have a lot of respect for.

I wonder if this will cost Michael Malone his job though? There will be serious shareholder fury..

That's a great comment about management pch, this might be a well needed wake up call; would be good for the longterm to focus on key management issues and personnel. I'm glad you rate them highly technically as I have heard good reports about their strategies. Only issues now are: what really are the problems with the books (or whatever else it is) and how long will this pain last?

[chansw]

From The West Australian on 13 May 2006

http://www.thewest.com.au/20060513/business/tw-business-home-sto134164.html

High speed fall for iiNet

NEALE PRIOR and JULIE-ANNE SPRAGUE


A little over 12 months ago, it looked liked iiNet boss Michael Malone had hit the big time when the business he started in his mum's garage became the nation's third biggest internet service provider.

Mr Malone had just won the bidding war for dot.com discard Ozemail and the group was making an audacious challenge to Telstra's dominance of broadband internet with plans to install high-speed internet units on racks in the telecommunications giant's own exchanges.

What's more, iiNet had just completed an $85 million capital raising through its long-standing supporters at stockbroking firm Euroz at $3.05 a share - a price that valued Mr Malone's 16.6 per cent stake at more than $55 million.

Now it is anybody's guess what Mr Malone's stake is worth after a four-week suspension of the company's shares as auditors and iiNet staff try to work out just what has been going on with the accounts. The shares last traded at $1.69, but analysts fear the price could halve when it returns to trading.

Analysts now see iiNet as being open for takeover after it appointed Euroz, its long-time market supporter and feeder of its appetite for equity, to advise the group on approaches from potential suitors and GEM Consulting to carry out a strategic review.

And investors and analysts are left wondering just what is going inside iiNet, with Mr Malone this week being effectively sidelined with the elevation of technology stock veteran Peter Harley from non-executive chairman to executive chairman and chief financial officer Stephen Fewster told to report directly to Mr Harley.

"When you call in Euroz to review unsolicited offers you are in play," said one analyst yesterday. "If you sideline the managing director who owns a big stake in the company, you are very definitely in play."

The hottest favourite as a potential suitor is Australia's number two telecommunications and internet group Optus, the Singapore Telecommunications subsidiary which is belatedly making its own push into providing genuinely fast broadband to its customers.

Mr Malone has overseen a $20 million-plus investment over the past year in advanced internet technology that can give customers broadband services more than eight times the speed of Telstra's offering.

And the group plans to borrow money from its bankers and spend another $15 million in coming months installing special broadband transmitter units, known as Dslams, into Telstra phone exchanges that can push data down Telstra's copper phone lines at high speeds.

Its customer base of more than 175,000 broadband users, including 85,000-plus customers using its own high-speed broadband, makes iiNet appealing to potential suitors - if the price is right.

In hindsight, the writing was on the wall in September when Telstra chief Sol Trujillo intensified a public campaign to loosen the regulatory shackles on Telstra and crank up the fees it charges wholesale customers, such as iiNet.

By November Mr Malone was warning investors that iiNet's profits would be squeezed by Telstra's price rises, sending iiNet's shares into a tailspin.

Its shares plunged from $2.62 to $1.68 before the group officially slashed its forecast for first half earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from $19.1 million to $16.4 million on December 19. It told investors its full year earnings would be $40.1 million.

Two months later iiNet appeared to be back on course. It unveiled a $16.43 million interim EBITDA in accounts reviewed and signed off by auditors Ernst & Young. It then reaffirmed its earnings guidance and outlook at a presentation to stockbrokers on March 8.

This month iiNet revealed it had called in Ernst & Young to unearth "forecasting and clerical errors in revenue recognition" that masked a serious downturn in the March quarter.

The shock for the analysts advising some of Australia's biggest stockbroking firms was not the downturn in trading performance - it was why and how Australia's third largest ISP did not know how much money was flowing in and out the door.

"People have been burnt once and now twice, and there will be people now who will exit this stock and not want to come back," one analyst said. "They will not buy Michael Malone's blue sky any more."

"They've got Ernst & Young in there to help them out, it hardly inspires management confidence," said another.

IiNet is yet to tell investors how it fumbled the books and why it took so long to detect. That is expected to take a further one to two weeks.

One telecommunications industry consultant said highly sophisticated accounting system were needed to accurately determine revenue when there were high levels or pre-payments and customers on long-term contracts.

He said the blaming of so-called "forecasting and clerical errors in revenue recognition" pointed to problems with the group's accounting system. "It basically means their accounting systems are not working properly," he said.

Mr Malone said this week the problem was human error. He could not be contacted yesterday.

One rival internet company executive said the entire industry is facing a price squeeze from Telstra as the giant pushes up the wholesale price of its copper wire network and broadband.

But he said Mr Malone and iiNet were playing a particularly risky game by publicly taking on the "500 pound gorilla" while relying on Telstra's co-operation in gaining access to its exchanges and connecting customers.

"They've got iiNet saying 'up your nose with a rubber hose and, by the way, we need another couple of racks'," he said.

[chansw]

PowerTel buys in as iiNet slumps

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19268594-643,00.html

Michael Sainsbury
May 27, 2006

AUSTRALIA's third-biggest internet service provider, iiNet, has issued a profit downgrade after securing a $10 million investment from network player PowerTel that may signal a broader round of consolidation in the $33 billion a year sector.

Analysts expect iiNet's shares to fall by as much as half when they resume trading on Monday after being suspended for five weeks.

PowerTel, which will end up with about 13 per cent in iiNet after its two-tranche investment is executed, is paying only 85c a share for most of its shares, against iiNet's last traded price of $1.69.

"We are extremely disappointed to report this downgrade," iiNet chief executive Michael Malone said.

"There are a number of reasons that have combined in this half to produce a result that is significantly less than our market guidance, and we attach a detailed analysis.

"We recognise that this situation is unsatisfactory for shareholders but the company remains in a good position with over 600,000 services and Australia's largest ADSL2+ network."

Macquarie Equities analyst Tim Smart said: "Clearly iiNet has grown at a pace that has far exceeded the company's ability to manage it."

In a lengthy stock exchange statement listing a litany of operational woes, iiNet said it would miss previous guidance of $40 million for underlying profits.

Instead, the figure would be $26.4 million and the company expected to post a bottom-line loss.

IiNet has experienced problems integrating a number of acquisitions including former No2 ISP OzEmail early last year.

The company has been plagued with difficulties at its call centres and teething problems on its new ADSL network. Chairman Peter Harley said: "In every other six-month period since 2001, there has been either a large acquisition or a major integration.

"This is the first clear period without such activity and it is now obvious that, with the rapid expansion of the business, our processes did not keep pace.

"Following the discovery of the gap between the actual and forecast position, we chose to adopt a conservative approach, resulting in a longer than expected period of suspension from trading."

IiNet's troubles also reflect those of the sector, which has been hit by increased competition and an unexpected hike in network prices by former monopoly player Telstra.

PowerTel yesterday pitched its investment as a strategic alliance.

"This strategic alliance has significantly accelerated PowerTel's progress in the wholesale consumer, small business broadband and voice markets," PowerTel chief Paul Broad said.

"This will bring forward more than $10 million in revenue growth for PowerTel and its wholesale partners."

IiNet will use PowerTel's east coast fibre network.

Between them the two groups will have the country's second-biggest ADSL network.

The move comes only weeks after PowerTel failed in a cash and shares bid worth about $400million for Telecom New Zealand's local subsidiary, AAPT.

PowerTel chief executive Paul Broad said the company had decided to take a stake in iiNet so it "had a foot on a big chunk, in case, before anybody else".

IiNet is on track to complete the strategic review of the business by the end of June 2006. Updated guidance on the 2007 financial year will be provided at the conclusion of that process.

IiNet will conduct an investor roadshow across Australia next week.

[pch]

Well iinet are trading again and have released the results of their audit.

In short, systematic and repeated screw-ups across all sectors of their business. If I were part of the management team I would be very embarressed at the scale and scope of it all.

Pages 3-6 of their "Profit Update" document is gold as a reference to their competitors to learn how *not* to do the same.

[canny]

Think it could have been oversold a tad today - and think it may go back towards the dollar tomorrow.
Time will tell.

[Porper]

Think it could have been oversold a tad today - and think it may go back towards the dollar tomorrow.
Time will tell.

I hope not.

I am in my first short trade today and really wish I hadn't bothered.High risk and don't say I like it too much.

Maybe my risk tolerence isn't as high as I thought. :eek:

[serp]

It has been trending downwards over a long period of time, is there any reason why it should go up in the near future?

[RichKid]

It has been trending downwards over a long period of time, is there any reason why it should go up in the near future?
Doesn't seem to be any reason, short term volatility is another issue, 45c valuation according to this report due to analysts becoming aware of more information, increase in risk profile. It's hard to say that this was an accounting anomaly, this is a genuine profit warning and signal that all is not well, it's not like someone hit the wrong button or forgot to include a report. Possibly a candidate for the cockroach theory- when you find one there are bound to be others about to come out, not about to die but looks like a long recovery, especially with Telstra becoming more aggressive: http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/iiNet-shares-plunge-on-profit-downgrade/2006/05/29/1148754930110.html

[Fab]

Sounds like ENG is a better bet at the moment

[canny]

Sounds as if Optus, Telstra and Singapore Singtel are all after them -
Can only push the price back up if a bidding was begins.

[binh25]

I'm an iinet customer and I think iinet did a very naughty thing. They book me two months in advance for my internet connection
So I think the financial thing could be down to that booking revenues before it's due...

I wrote a letter of complain to them and they reverse my charge to monthly basis not two months in advance. hmmmmm

[RodC]

All sorts of fun and games happening here, Amcom (AMM) have purchased almost 20% of IIN in the last 2 days.

Rod.

[sangshim]

Yeah~ It's really fun to watch the rollercoaster ride..
Wish I have bought some at .67 and sold at 1.09

[pch]

All sorts of fun and games happening here, Amcom (AMM) have purchased almost 20% of IIN in the last 2 days.

Rod.

I think that this is a good thing for both companies. Amnet's fibre network will save iinet money and amnet will not have to keep rolling out dslams.

Both will save costs in backoffice stuff like payroll, billing, and call centre too..

[hayden123]

YAY or NAY?
The price seems alittle low .80cents for a company with over 600,000 subscribers

[$unny]

I hope no one lost a lot of money???? :2twocents :banghead:

[pch]

YAY or NAY?
The price seems alittle low .80cents for a company with over 600,000 subscribers

Long term, probably YAY. But (and ISP is an industry I know well) at that size there are some pretty large logistical and technical challenges.

Technologies change relatively quickly. and most ISP's do a pretty terrible job of billing and customer support. AT this depressed price, its harder for them to raise capital by issuing shares because there will be a greater dilution (ie 1,000,000 shares issues at $3 would require 3.75 million shares to be issued at 80c.

Technology changes fast. Wireless technologies like Wifi and Iburst chip away. Broadband over power is being triallied in various places.

Technology also becomes commoditised. Ie pretty much anybody can build a broadband network is they have the cash. DLSAM rollouts are not unique to iinet.

Their buyers powertel and amnet have some good assets. Fibre in the ground to me is a great thing. You can change the devices and technologies used across each fibre and it will be there in the coming years. I feel that there is more equity value in a fibre network than DSLAMS for example as in 3 years from now you may find the DSLAMS they used are no longer leading edge.

So I think its good now that iinet potentially has access to fibre backhaul at a more competitive rate.

What I am pondering though is to buy Amnet, or Amnets 50% owner Futuris, as then you get ISP exposure but some other diversification as well..

[chansw]

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,19851560%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html

iiNet retreats from NZ
Staff writers
JULY 20, 2006

Perth-based ISP iiNet has put is its New Zealand business iHug on the market, the company's executive chairman Peter Harley has announced.

In a statement released to the market today, iiNet said that it wanted to focus on developing its Australian business.

The company is looking for a cash sale to fund further infrastructure investment in the Australian market, Mr Harley said. Part of the proceeds would be used to reduce the company's debt to Westpac.

Mr Harley said that the board had conducted a strategic review of the business and concluded that the New Zealand operation "was outside this key focus of activity".

The ISP is yet to secure a buyer for the business but said that it would contact potential buyers this month ahead of a sale which was expected to be completed before the end of the year.

Mr Harley declined to reveal who had approached iiNet to buy iHug but he said that the offers had come from industry and private equity business both within Australia and offshore.

iiNet said company chose to sell the business after it received "a large number of unsolicited approaches to purchase (the ISP)".

iiNet's New Zealand operation currently has around 120,000 internet subscribers and recorded and EBITDA profit of $5.7 million last financial year.

The New Zealand government's decision last May to change its telecommunications regulations would assist the sale, Mr Harley said.

"Since then there's has been considerable interest in iHug and we have taken the view that this is a good time to exit the New Zealand market and focus attention firmly on growing our Australian business," Mr Harley said.

Mr Harley conceded however that that it was not clear when the New Zealand government new regulations would be implemented.

[chansw]

iiNet sells ihug to Vodafone NZ for $36m
9-October-06 by AAP & Andrew Hobbs

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/44114/iiNet-sells-ihug-to-Vodafone-NZ-for-36m

Perth-based internet service provider iiNet Ltd has successfully sold its New Zealand subsidiary ihug Ltd to Vodafone New Zealand for $36 million, an amount it claims was around $6 million above book value.

News that iiNet was considering the sale was first mooted in WA Business News in May, though iiNet didn't formally announce plans to sell the company until July this year, stating part of the proceeds would be used to reduce group debt, after the company suffered a net loss of $60 million for the 2005-06 financial year.

ihug, which is New Zealand's third largest ISP, cost iiNet $30.1 million in cash and a further 23.7 million shares when it bought the company in 2003 - though that purchase included a big boost to iiNet's presence on the Australian east coast as well as giving it a trans-Tasman foothold.



The full text of a story from the New Zealand Press Association is pasted below, followed by the full text of an iiNet announcement


Mobile operator Vodafone New Zealand said today it is buying ihug for $NZ41 million to broaden its customer base.

Vodafone chief executive Russell Stanners said ihug will operate as a standalone company, and Vodafone would remain focused on mobile.

Vodafone has around 53 per cent of the mobile market, but only 20 per cent of the telecommunications market.

"Ihug already has a strong brand in the ISP (Internet service provider) broadband market which New Zealanders identify with, a capable management team and we fully support their growth plans," Mr Stanners said.

Ihug chief executive Mark Rushworth believed the transition would be smooth, as the two companies have similar brand values.

Ihug is positioning itself to take on Telecom in its home phone market, moving from Internet service provider to telecommunications company following the government's decision in May to open up Telecom's fixed line network to rivals.

Ihug has about 8 per cent of the broadband, or fast Internet, market and expected all its services to be at that level within a year.

Ihug's Australian owner, iiNet, put the business up for sale in July, turning down a $NZ30 million bid from New Zealand ISP Orcon, and understood to have rejected a $NZ36 million bid from Internet rival Compass Communications.

State-owned enterprise Transmission Holdings was understood to be one of two companies left in the hunt to buy the Internet service provider.

Telecommunications analyst Paul Budde said the purchase was a significant development, going beyond the strategy Vodafone had pursued so far of building partnerships with fixed-line based operators to get a better foothold in the market.

"It vindicates a position we have held for many years, that mobile only infrastructure doesn't make any sense," Mr Budde said.

"By being a mobile operator only, you limit yourself to only be able to deliver those services and applications in one particular format."

Broadband was the future for fixed and mobile services, and ihug was a "clear leader" in that field, Mr Budde said.

"I am sure that all eyes of the larger Vodafone organisation will be on New Zealand to follow what the outcome of the merger will be."

New 4G -- fourth generation -- technologies were around the corner, expected to allow two-way communication in voice, video and data on a scale that was previously impossible. The 4G technology would allow mobile users on the go to enjoy services that they can now get through personal computers with high-speed broadband connections.


The full text of an iiNet announcement is pasted below

iiNet is pleased to announce the sale of 100 per cent of the shares in its New Zealand subsidiary, ihug Ltd, to Vodafone New Zealand Ltd. The sale price of $36 million, is approximately $6 million in excess of book value. It is expected that completion of the sale will occur within two weeks.

iiNet acquired the Australian and New Zealand operations of ihug in 2003, and announced in July that following a strategic review of the Group, a desire to focus on the core Australia business, as well as unsolicited offers being received for ihug following recent changes in the New Zealand regulatory environment, a process would commence for the sale of ihug in New Zealand.

"We expected the sale process to be complete this half," said iiNet Chairman Mr Peter Harley. "We're pleased that a fair price has been made by Vodafone, delivering a good, clean result for iiNet shareholders."

The funds realized from the sale will be applied to a reduction of bank debt and for working capital to continue the expansion of the business in Australia.

"ihug staff are expected to be retained by the purchaser and will continue to grow the business," said iiNet CEO Mr Michael Malone.

"It has been a pleasure to work with the ihug team over the past three years," said Mr Malone. "I believe that we have transformed the ihug business during that time, leaving it in a strong position for customers, staff and the new owners."

"iiNet will also retain its own Call Centre in Auckland, which employs approximately one hundred people. There is a five hour time difference between Perth and Auckland, and a very similar operating environment, making it an excellent place for us to maintain a presence."

"It will be a little sad to say goodbye to the ihug staff, but I'm delighted that the iiNet Call Centre team in Auckland will remain with us, and continue to be an important part of the iiNet story."

[Kremmen]

In a move that could be amusing to the fundamentalists as well as the chartists amongst you, I bought IIN recently (before the ihug NZ sale) because I have a number of friends who work for them and said they're worth buying. :)

[Kremmen]

I'm surprised none of you seem very interested in IIN. They appear to be establishing a nice upward trend and have touched $1 today.

[BSD]

Looking good at the moment.

More importantly, are your mates still buying at these prices?

[chansw]

I'm surprised none of you seem very interested in IIN. They appear to be establishing a nice upward trend and have touched $1 today.
I bought mine at $0.65 and am still holding them. :)

[Kremmen]

I bought mine at $0.65 and am still holding them. :)

Nicely done! I didn't have the guts to get in until they had started showing signs of having come off the bottom, so I started buying at 73c.

[tayser]

I'm looking at this stock on paper atm, very strong over the past 2 weeks.

up 30% since I first looked at it.

[tomcat]

After the trouble with their accounting practices that caused the drop in SP last year I feel Malone and iinet will be back on top this year.

I like the fundamentals of the company, they have moved away from Telstra backhaul to the exchanges by purchasing dark fibre from PIPE Networks (PWK)

Unlike a lot of other ISP's they ensured they bought mutliple cores from PIPE between each exchange to future proof capacity and scaling issues. Their exchange rollout has been impressive and I think they may be a good aquisition target...particularly with Powertel having a 19% stake in them...and with Powertel about to be bought out by NZ telecom.

[chansw]

I'm looking at this stock on paper atm, very strong over the past 2 weeks.

up 30% since I first looked at it.
That is probably due to the takeover of PowerTel by Telecom New Zealand and the speculation of more consolidation within the telecommunication sector. I agree with Tomcat that iiNet has good fundamentals. The following is from The Age today

"Mr Broad would not comment on possible acquisition prospects such as iiNet or Macquarie Telecom, in which Powertel already holds stakes."

Merged Telecom, PowerTel must grow: CEO
February 4, 2007 - 2:14PM
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Merged-Telecom-PowerTel-must-grow-CEO/2007/02/04/1170523949227.html

A merged Telecom Corp of New Zealand and PowerTel would lack the scale to deliver competitive products and would need to grow, PowerTel's head said on Sunday.

Last week Telecom launched a $357 million takeover bid for PowerTel, with which it signed a high-speed broadband deal in November.

According to PowerTel chief executive Paul Broad a merged group would have to grow to compete effectively.

"We need to grow organically and if there are opportunities to grow through M and A (merger and acquisition) activity we would," Mr Broad told Sky News Sunday Business.

"But we have to grow.

"We're not at the scale, we think, that we can deliver competitive products."

Telecom is New Zealand's biggest company and owns Australia's third biggest phone company AAPT.

PowerTel is Australia's third biggest fixed line player.

AAPT pays about $680 million a year to Telstra, and other carriers, to use their telecommunications infrastructure, and stands to benefit from PowerTel's substantial network, which covers about 90 per cent of Sydney and Perth, 80 per cent of Brisbane and 70 per cent of Melbourne and Adelaide.

Apart from becoming no longer reliant on someone else's infrastructure, Mr Broad said achieving scale was one of the main motivators behind the deal for both Telecom and PowerTel.

"Our businesses are sub-scale," Mr Broad said.

"If we don't get big and we don't become competitive then we won't have a business in a few year's time."

Mr Broad would not comment on possible acquisition prospects such as iiNet or Macquarie Telecom, in which Powertel already holds stakes.

"I can't speak for what might happen with other companies."

Mr Broad said offering a mobile phone service, which the merged group would not have, was "very important", and flagged that existing discussions with Hutchison and Vodafone would continue.

"I think you'll find those discussions will evolve to be a bit closer over time.

"Whether that leads to a consolidations play is another question.

"But certainly I think Vodafone and Hutchinson need a land broadband strategy, we need a mobile strategy so .... there's a natural fit there."

Last Friday, after making the PowerTel bid, Telecom shaved its 2007 earnings before interest, tax and amortisation guidance for long-suffering AAPT to $40 million.

That was less optimistic than its last projection in November of a result between $40 million and $50 million, and down on the $75 million forecast three months earlier.

Mr Broad said he was confident of AAPT's future.

"I can't judge or comment on what they might have done in the past, I'm not there.

"All I can say now is that PowerTel's strategy and performance in the last 12 months has been incredibly strong, and we believe the combined group of AAPT and us will be strong."

Mr Broad said both companies would continue to discuss his future at the merged group.

[tayser]

my god I wish I had saved my initial trading capital earlier.

since I've been watching the shares, they've just 40%... and who knows after today:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Telecom-NZ-approaches-Amcom-report/2007/02/08/1170524196017.html

Telecom NZ approaches Amcom: report
February 8, 2007 - 7:14AM


Telecom, which is bidding to take over Sydney-based telco PowerTel, is reported to have made an approach to another Australian telecommunications company.

Telecom was understood to have approached Amcom Telecommunications with a friendly takeover offer of up to $A80 million, The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) reported on Thursday.

Such a deal could also give Telecom a controlling stake in Perth-based internet company iiNet.

At the end of January Telecom, which already owns Australia's third biggest phone company, AAPT, announced a proposed $A357 million takeover of PowerTel, three months after forging closer ties with the Sydney-based telco in a high-speed broadband deal.

Telecom has now increased its stake in PowerTel to more than 58 per cent, making the prospect of a counterbid highly unlikely.

On Wednesday, a person familiar with Telecom's approach to Amcom told the SMH Telecom had been in talks with Amcom in December about a proposed offer.

"They have unofficially approached Amcom about taking them out," the source said. "(But) it's not a done deal."

Another source close to the parties said that "cutting a deal with Amcom was the only way (for Telecom) to take out iiNet".

Telecom would gain a 36 per cent stake in iiNet through a bid for Amcom, while on completion of its takeover of PowerTel, Telecom would gain a 17 percent holding in iiNet.

[tayser]

Reckon the recent rise has hit its peak?

Just going over a yearly chart and its closed today on a support level which it hit back in March last year which was the turn around before it ultimately hit rock bottom in May.

Thoughts?

[tomcat]

In their speeding ticket response they have made mention that their half year results are due on the 19th of Feb. There may be a bit of interest leading up to the release of the results with punters hoping for some positive news.

That and the possibility of NZ telecom owing 18.3% through Powertel and the possibility of acquiring Amcom another 20% ....which could lead them to go all out for IInet may see support at higher levels over the next couple of weeks

[tayser]

This stock has certainly won a few beauty pageants in the past 3 months since I've been watching it.

As of today, up 70%!

I wish I wasn't just paper trading right now! :)

[tayser]

heh, oops, sounds like I'm ramping it a bit, apologies, that's not the intention. But I still think I've learnt more from watching this stock - and its charts - by reading some of Guppy's texts at the same time - just going through part 3 and 4 in Trend Trading and as I'm re-drawing the trendlines based on updated data, what I'm reading is making a heck of a lot of sense.

[Santoro]

I have been watching IIN run up dramatically since presenting at the Mac Bank micro caps presentation on May 3. Is this sp moving, as a bit of a novice, could someone post there thoughts on what might be going on??:confused:

Thanks.

[quarky]

what's going on?
iiN shares jumped from $1.25 to about $2.20 within a few weeks.

is this all to do with the government's fibre-to-the-node policies?

i'm amazed. i was thinking of buying into iiNet a month ago, but never anticipated a jump so high!
:eek7:

[mrWoodo]

what's going on?
iiN shares jumped from $1.25 to about $2.20 within a few weeks.

is this all to do with the government's fibre-to-the-node policies?

i'm amazed. i was thinking of buying into iiNet a month ago, but never anticipated a jump so high!
:eek7:

I was thinking of IIN 6 months ago :( Damn if only!
The only reason I can see lately is their big advertising push - Seeing a lot of their ads on tv in the past few weeks, making a lot of mum/dad investors take notice. I'm actually a customer of theirs and have been very impressed with their service but feel it's too late for me to jump onboard.

[chansw]

iiNet bounces back with $23.2m profit
20-August-07 by AAP
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/55946/iiNet-turns-around-prior-loss-to-make-23-2m-profit-in-2006-07

Perth-based internet access services company iiNet Ltd has reported an annual profit, turning around earlier losses, and says it expects market conditions to remain buoyant this year.

The company made a net profit of $23.2 million in the 2006-07 financial year, compared to a loss of $62.5 million in the previous year.

iiNet has predicted continued buoyant operating conditions in the 2007-08 and growth in group revenue and earnings.

"The company's strong balance sheet provides an excellent base for growth, both organic and through acquisition," managing director Michael Malone said.

The result for the year ended June 30 included a $5.4 million profit on the sale of iiNet's ihug service business.

Underlying earnings, before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, rose to $39.1 million, from $18.1 million.

The result followed iiNet's decision to pre-price unprofitable internet access plans, increase its network traffic and control costs.

iiNet declared a final dividend of five cents.



Earnings Highlights

iiNet Limited (ASX:iin) today released a record Net Profit after Tax ("NPAT") result of $23.3m and EBITDA of $45.9m. The NPAT result included a $5.4 million profit from the sale of ihug and $6.9 million from the settlement of the line sharing services ("LSS") charges from Telstra that relate to the period prior to FY07.

iiNet's underlying EBITDA from continuing operations was $39.1 million in FY07 compared to $18.1 million in FY06, an increase of $21 million. The significant improvement in the underlying EBITDA was due to the success of the Company's 'Protect the Core' strategy that included the following key initiatives:


Re-pricing unprofitable plans;
Increasing the proportion of broadband customers iiNet has on its own national network;
Tight cost controls in the business; and
A $6.50 per month decrease in the regulated charge for LSS charges to $2.50 per month for each on-net customer.
A fully franked final dividend of 5.0 cents per share has been declared taking the full year dividend pay out to 6.0 cents per share.

As a result of improved trading from operations and the sale of ihug, the net debt position of the Company improved significantly, falling from $50.5m at 30 June 2006 to $7.7m at 30 June 2007.

"The Company's strong balance sheet provides an excellent base for growth, both organic and through acquisition,", said iiNet Managing Director Michael Malone.

Operational Highlights


Major national marketing campaign
Expansion of own broadband network to truly national scale
Roll out of low-cost dark fibre network connections
Continued high customer rating and support

In late April 2007, iiNet launched a major marketing campaign in Perth and Sydney aimed at increasing brand awareness in those markets. Survey results show there has been a substantial lift in brand awareness. Along with network ownership and outstanding customer service, the Company expects brand equity to be a major driver of success in the next two years as the broadband market saturates.

In 2004, iiNet commenced construction of Australia's first national ADSL2+ broadband network. Today, the Company has its own equipment in 283 exchanges, reaching around 75% of metropolitan households. The Company plans to increase this by at least 30 more exchanges in the coming year. This investment is a key asset providing product differentiation and giving iiNet control of its major costs.

iiNet has also been pursuing a strategy of moving its metropolitan transmission ("backhaul") to dark fibre. iiNet now has 156 exchanges connected via dark fibre with an additional 57 to be connected by December 2007. The costs associated with dark fibre transmission are fixed while the cost of traditional backhaul solutions increases with usage.

iiNet has always aimed to provide awesome customer service, regarding this as a critical and sustainable differentiator. The Company has commenced using the Net Promoter Score ("NPS") methodology to monitor its performance. NPS shows the proportion of customers who are strong advocates, less those who are simply satisfied. Research undertaken demonstrates there is a high correlation between NPS and earnings growth. The results of the surveys conducted to date show iiNet is achieving results well ahead of other Australian telecommunications companies, and scores approaching that of Apple and Google.

During the year, iiNet was awarded the prestigious international 4-star rating for outstanding innovation in customer service from Genesys for its virtualisation of its 3 call centres in Perth, Sydney and Auckland (collectively called "the VCC"). This allows calls to be answered by the first available customer service representative irrespective of their location. This has assisted in improving call responsiveness and customer satisfaction.

Board Changes

iiNet Chairman Peter Harley has announced his decision to stand down as a director of the Company once the search for his replacement is complete.

Mr Harley joined the board in 1999 and has served the Company as Chairman since 2002. He is a non-executive Director and Chairman on several other listed and private companies.

In May 2006, when the Company encountered difficulties, Mr Harley stepped into an Executive Chairman role for six months to assist management.

"Over the past decade, Peter has led the company in its move from a small private business to a listed and credible telecommunications company," said Mr Malone. "His leadership and support has been particularly important in the turn around of the business in the past year."

The new Chairman is expected to be announced prior to the Annual General Meeting.

FY08 Objectives


Strong growth in revenue and earnings
Expansion of major marketing campaign in Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide
Launch of new products, including wireless hot spot service
Focus on iiNet's best-in-class customer service.
iiNet is predicting continued buoyant operating conditions in FY08 and growth in group revenue and earnings.

During FY08, iiNet will continue the current marketing campaign with an emphasis on direct marketing. The brand awareness campaign will also be extended to other cities during the year.

Supporting the sales campaign will be the release of a number of new products beginning with a product known as naked DSL. This is still a high speed ADSL broadband service but does not require the customer to rent a basic telephone line. The Company also expects to launch a wireless hot spot product which will give iiNet customers access to the Internet outside their home.

The focus on the 'Protect the Core' strategy was directed at tightly controlling costs. This is a process that will continue as the Company seeks better ways to conduct its business.

Further investment in VCC technology and staff training will continue in FY08 as the Company seeks to enhance customer service levels even further. The objective is to increase customer advocacy as service becomes an ever more important differentiator.

"The applications of broadband are changing and become more complex," said Mr Malone.

"Outstanding customer service is the one way in which iiNet can stand apart from its competitors and help customers to take advantage of the new applications that become possible with access to high speed broadband."

[Awesomandy]

I'm actually a little bit suprised by its results. Given the increased competition of very high-speed broadband (i.e. ADSL2+) from a number of large companies such as TPG and Optus, I'm a little bit wary of the potential growth of iinet.

[chansw]

I'm actually a little bit suprised by its results. Given the increased competition of very high-speed broadband (i.e. ADSL2+) from a number of large companies such as TPG and Optus, I'm a little bit wary of the potential growth of iinet.
I don't know about TPG but Optus is going to count uploads. That can potentially reduce their number of users given that Internet users nowadays are not just downloading content but they do uploading content, too. The following is from Whirlpool web site (2007-Jul-8, 2:15 pm).

http://whirlpool.net.au/article.cfm/1744?show=replies

"OPINION | Optus will join an exclusive club by counting uploads — Telstra BigPond and Dodo are the only other large ISPs doing so. Although it is only happening on new plans, Optus users will no doubt be worried that their older plans could be phased out and replaced with those that count uploads too.

This is also not the first time Optus has followed Telstra into reduced broadband value (remember the 3GB cap?) Given Optus has tried to sell itself as a much better alternative to Telstra in the current politically charged broadband debate, it seems like a strange move to show us just how much like Telstra they can be."

[Awesomandy]

I don't know about TPG but Optus is going to count uploads.

Optus is only doing that for their new cap plans with unlimited* phone usage. Their old plans remain the same without counting uploads.

[Katndahat]

IINET is comfortably looking to be around the 50 Mill EBITDA for 2008 and it's trading currently at $2.06. If you look back to the last time it was at that level (before they stuffed up and Telstra was looming as a threat) the shares were trading at $3.23

Could be some upside coming in the next few months as they are debt free and earning great cash flow. Euroz have a buy up to $2.61 which I think is a little on the light side.

TNZ/AAPT will have to look at buying them before that price gets to high although with current trading they may have to pay around the $3.40+ mark to get them now.

[sting]

They now have a larger bank balance.. I recieved an email yesterday saying my credit card payment was rejected and that they had suspended my account my wife rang to enquire why it was disconected and was told of the failure. they then got my wife to give them MY card details over the phone and without my knowledge double charged me When I rang to enquire what had happened as my card showed the 2 transactions. Was told that they knew of the problem as it suspended ALL subscribers who paid by card by direct debit on 23rd but failed to tell their Customer service people who insisted on a double payment to reconnect customers resultingin a double income on the day.

Outcome of the event.. "sorry we cant refund the money but will credit it towards next months invoice.... iinet to reap the interest"

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI

[chansw]

iinet buys Westnet
May 8, 2008 - 4:38PM

http://business.theage.com.au/iinet-buys-westnet/20080508-2c6y.html

Telecommunications company Iinet will buy Westnet for $81 million in cash, to reinforce its position as Australia's third-largest internet service provider.

iinet shares closed up 14% after the Perth-based company said it would fund the acquisition by raising $41 million in a share sale - and the remainder through cash and debt. Its shares gained 23 cents to close at $1.88.

The company will sell 25.6 million new shares at $1.60 each to investor clients of Euroz Securities, it said in a statement.

Westnet, Australia's sixth largest ISP, will bring 215,000 phone and internet subscriptions, raising Iinet's total to more than 680,000.

iinet's dialup and broadband subscribers will to increase to 470,000 through the acquisition, which the company expects to complete by the end of the month.

iinet, which will retain the Westnet brand and staff, said the companies were particularly strong in Western Australia, and the combined subscriber base would cover more than 30% of that market.

"Both Westnet and Iinet have always focused on genuine plain-speaking customer service, seeing that as the only really sustainable differentiator in our business,'' Iinet managing director Michael Malone said in the statement.

"Westnet has consistently set the benchmark for service in our industry, and I look forward to learning how we can improve Iinet's service even further.''

Westnet will continue as a separate operating entity.

"This opportunity allows the company to continue that same level of customer service and also offer many new products to our agents and customers,'' Westnet managing director Peter Brown said.

[RodH]

jumped 7.48% the other day on news that it will sell mobile broadband.

What's everyones thoughts on this stock now?

[justiceotp]

They didn't even recover the loses from two days ago and they are currently buying their own shares back plus there was very low volume for the day.

[McCoy Pauley]

Decision in the Federal Court of Australia regarding claims that iiNet authorised copyright infringements committed by its various customers due on 4 February 2010.

Won't be the last of it, though. If iiNet wins the decision, I'm of the view that the claimants (the studios) will appeal the decision to the full Federal Court. I suspect that iiNet would also appeal if it lost.

[omac]

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/166348,iinet-wins-film-industrys-case-torn-to-shreds.aspx

probably will be an appeal, but good to see.

[Miner]

Decision in the Federal Court of Australia regarding claims that iiNet authorised copyright infringements committed by its various customers due on 4 February 2010.

Won't be the last of it, though. If iiNet wins the decision, I'm of the view that the claimants (the studios) will appeal the decision to the full Federal Court. I suspect that iiNet would also appeal if it lost.

Copyright infringement is an interesting case and it all depends on how smartly your legal adviser proves who was at default.

We may recall that recently Joe Blow our Administrator has raised this issue when lot of us (including me) have reproduced full or part of paid newsletter reports deemed to be under copy right provision.

One of such paid report is Eureka Report and there are many as you know. Interestingly however Eureka Report cries fowl when some one reproduces even a line from their publication with due recognition of the source.

At the same time Eureka Report shamelessly reproduces other paid news letter reports in their circulation withut even any credence of the source. One may beg the question how come the same copyright act does not work for ER ?

Just my thoughts how same action be seen as illegal and legal by the same person ?

This is not a legal or any kind of advice. I am just sharing my thoughts to know how people see it half glass empty or half glass full .

[McCoy Pauley]

The decision was delivered this morning and iiNet succeeded in defending the claims brought against it by the 34 studios of authorising copyright infringement.

I'm about 75% of the way through the 200 page judgment (it's research for my line of work) and I'm impressed by the technical knowledge shown by his Honour, Mr Justice Cowdroy, as well as his Honour's robustness of his decision.

I've no doubt that the studios will appeal as they will take the view that it's easier to sue 5-10 ISPs rather than millions of individuals but IMO it would be a difficult case to make out that his Honour got the law wrong.

Disclaimer - The above should not be taken as legal advice and is not intended as such. As always, DYOR and form your opinions.

[Rainmaker2000]

Couldn't agree more Pauley.

This gets close to my line of work too.......and to me, the case against IIN can only be made out if there is a broader policy objective external to the court case....

Because on the facts, it is internet users who may be breaching copyright based on the facts and circumstances of each instance............WHAT the hell has that got to do with IIN!!!! The whole prospect that IIN may be at fault is ludicrous.

What right has the chick in officeworks got to stop me photocopying a book.............is the chick in officeworks now a judge and a jury???

Anyway, I love this stock too.........and my puppies up are 12% today.....so go you sweet thang!

[subasurf]

Suing IIN for allowing piracy is like suing AusPost because some people send drugs in the mail. It's stupid.

Anyhoo, anyone care to guess how the share prices will go when the halt is lifted?

[Awesomandy]

Suing IIN for allowing piracy is like suing AusPost because some people send drugs in the mail. It's stupid.

Anyhoo, anyone care to guess how the share prices will go when the halt is lifted?

I think most likely nowhere (apart from reacting to the general market influences), since most people are expecting an appeal no matter who won this case.

[56gsa]

Just announced purchase of AAPT consumer division on 30th July - bang up from 2.66 to high of 3.13 over next few days... and then oops down in last two days back to 2.60??

anyone know whats going on - is this because AAPT's shares are now coming on the market and being sold off (did I see AAPT sold them for 2.50 a share??)

IIN now trading at PE of 8 for FY11 after taking into account benefits from AAPT acquistion

[ROE]

Just announced purchase of AAPT consumer division on 30th July - bang up from 2.66 to high of 3.13 over next few days... and then oops down in last two days back to 2.60??

anyone know whats going on - is this because AAPT's shares are now coming on the market and being sold off (did I see AAPT sold them for 2.50 a share??)

IIN now trading at PE of 8 for FY11 after taking into account benefits from AAPT acquistion

I may come on as a bias opinion as I got shares in Telstra
but what TLS intention of doing in the next few years will have impact on iinet margin and all the other smaller ISP.

TLS will start a price war, this will be good for consumers, these small guys has to compete to retain market share and to do that they have to lower the price and that will cut into margin, cut into margin = cut into earnings.

and I'm skeptical of them buying AAPT business, this business has been a bit of a dog but some people think iinet can do a lot better..wait and see

I got iinet broadband but TLS shares :-) so if TLS deal get better I naturally going to switch but that is just me ...

[goosmurf]

I posted this on another forum but not sure of the rules of linking there so reposting here.

bloomberg.com
/news/2010-08-13/tpg-telecom-iinet-slump-in-sydney-on-speculation-telstra-will-cut-prices.html (sorry not linked as I haven't yet posted 5 posts!)

Typical market over-reaction IMO.

I'm an iiNet shareholder (and Telstra too) but because of my location I could only get a pretty slow and unreliable DSL service. About 6 weeks ago Telstra released some very attractive bundle deals so I switched to Bigpond Cable.

Note that was 6 weeks ago. In the mean time Internode and iiNet have been complaining to the ACCC that Telstra is now selling retail below wholesale costs - that's been in the press for weeks.

I don't know what these so called investors are doing if its taken them this long to realise Telstra/Bigpond is competitive again.

All that said, I'm still an iiNet shareholder. I don't think that product pricing is the whole story. TPG and iiNet have very disparate pricing and even MM acknowledges that. At the end of the day its the combination of product, pricing, marketing, and quality of service that determines success.

Just as an aside, Telstra products are pretty good. The network is great, and the staff try really hard to provide good service. But they are foiled by the horrendous mess that is Telstra's IT systems.

To give you an example, I wanted to remove MessageBank from my phone line. I thought I should be able to do this on the website, or even just be dialling a code on the phone. Nope, I have to call up. I call up, I go through an IVR that identifies that I want to disable MessageBank, it identifies my calling line ID, asks for my DOB, and then puts me through to a consultant. The consultant asks for my DOB again to verify my ID -- didn't I just give this to the IVR a second ago? Anyway, she then cancels MessageBank on my line per my request, and informs me it'll take up to 24 hours for request to go through "the system".

To achieve the same outcome on iiNet I would just log in to their online Toolbox and do it myself.

I'm not complaining about the Telstra process as a rabid angry customer - I just question why the IVR has all the required details, then has to put me through to an expensive support person in order to achieve the desired outcome.

On Whirlpool you can see the multitude of issues Telstra's IT systems cause. Users can't get case/ticket numbers to track their issues, Bigpond is unable to account for usage in a timely manner (it randomly delays it from 15 minutes up to 8 hours), and my favourite one - users aren't even able to order what they want reliably because the systems magically lose and transform orders.

Of course no one is perfect. But the concept of Telstra competing on price and squashing everyone including iiNet and TPG to the tune of a 8+% single day drop is ludicrous.

I hope MM and his team don't prove me wrong when they release the next round of plan revisions and numbers. ;)

PS: after market today TPG released the following announcement: asx.com.au
/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01088108

[So_Cynical]

I got iinet broadband but TLS shares :-) so if TLS deal get better I naturally going to switch but that is just me ...

And you have a iinet connection because Telstra are uncompetitive...in fact Telstra is the most expensive and confusing company to deal with when it comes to internet and phone services in general....iinet lead the way as far as quality and pricing goes.

[mr. jeff]

maybe IIN could take over telstra and transfer their systems and take the whole network up a notch? OK, sorry.

IS there a chance that Optus could float and take over IIN to make a very competitive alternative to TLS in 2 years time when the labour government has begun implementing the NBN strategy?

Yes I know this is a smart alec email (with 5 massive assumptions above), but with all these assumptions comes some possibilities that may need to be considered one day - (open to being called names at this point).

What I'm getting at is that IIN seems to have the best service and the edge on the competition when it comes to product development. Note the T-box for an example...
I hold IIN, TLS.

[McCoy Pauley]

The movie studios' appeal against the trial judge's decision finding against them in their claim against IIN commenced this past week. It will probably be a good six months before the full bench of the Federal Court hands down its decision.

[56gsa]

Anyone following Iinet? Recent price moves have been down - sale at $2.45 yesterday. Has been bouncing between 2.50 and 3.00 for a while now - so interesting to see if it has another bounce. Haven't seen any news that explains the recent fall - is this because of the court case?

[fanger]

Half yearly report seemed good - revenue up 45%

[talonsmail]

Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.

41553

[skc]

Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.

41553

No one can give you advise here on specific stocks or what to do with your money.

From a trading/investing point of view, my personal approach is always that - if I made a mistake I correct it straight away, regardless of whether I am in a loss or not.

The daily chart is looking weak but the weekly chart is still somewhat respectible.

IIN is halted now so I guess you just have to keep your fingers crossed. Good luck.

[tinhat]

Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.



Hey, I'm fairly new to stock market investing too. I've taken over the management of the family SMSF recently. Steep learning curve.

I bought some IIN in November 2010 for $5.35. I almost sold when it kept hitting resistance at 2.90 in Jan but wanting to be a long term investor I jut put my stop loss in at my buy price and waited to see what happened. I got stopped out this week at $5.35 exactly which was nice because often I get lower than my trigger price on conditional stop loss orders.

Unfortunately there is too much uncertainty in the telco/ISP industry at the moment with no one knowing what the structure of the industry is going to be with the NBN, when it's going to happen (if ever). Also, IIN has been on the acquisition path and this has dented its return on assets for the moment. Also, the guerrilla in the room is a potentially resurgent Telstra with it's war chest booty from the sale of its copper network to the NBN which is in the pipeline.

It's not a good time in the cycle for telcos.

Back in November I rearranged the SMSF portfolio choosing stocks which I perceived to be at a large discount to intrinsic value. Since then, having read Dan Wiesman's 'How to profit in bull and bear markets' and Alan Hulls 'Active Investing', I've added an important criteria to my buy strategy; the stock must be in a sustained upswing. Capital preservation is an important part of our investing strategy. So IIN would not meet my buy criteria today.

I can't give you personal advice, but I reckon there might be better opportunities out there in the short term. There is no doubt from a fundamental analysis perspective that the stock is substantially undervalued in the market. You have to decide whether you are prepared to sit on the stock in the long run and wait for the market to catch up to it's intrinsic value.

I subscribe to Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor for fundamental research of ASX stocks to identify buying opportunities. I also read Roger Montgomery's blog and watch Switzer TV for tips and info.

Good luck investing.

[adobee]

Looks like they beat the rap and came out trumps in the court case so may be a better day tomorrow ...

[talonsmail]

Fingers crossed.

It's all about supply and demand though isn't it? iinet may have won the appeal but that was more of a risk than something that would build confidence in the company itself (thus driving prices up) unless Im missing something?

[ROE]

I don't like iinet latest report, too much spin and I reckon AAPT purchase will turn out to be a dog ..wait and see ....

This company effective grow market share by buying up other ISP but not from organic growth..history tell you when companies do this eventually they hit a dead end as there are no other business left to buy..

After AAPT there isnt much left for iinet to buy out ...things will look interest from here on...

I give you an example of ABC learning, that effective what it been doing for 5 years...grow revenue by buy up other childcares not saying iinet is ABC learning but follow a very similar pattern...

after few years of crazy acquisition there isn't many child care left to buy....and return on equity slow as they get bigger...

In desperation to boost ROE they turn to cheap debt... then came GFC debt isnt cheap...no more place to buy to boost revenues...a bit of clever accounting and a bit of related party transaction and ABC went out with a boom :)

Beware of companies that grow by nothing but acquisition and watch the grow in goodwills because when earning decline these will turn into a very very bad will :-)

just be alert but don't be alarm for now...

[ROE]

Half yearly report seemed good - revenue up 45%

This figure means nothing, dont be fooled by it
stuff that really matter is EPS, ROE, Profit Margin etc...

I have 2 business one generate 50% increase in revenue each year but deliver static EPS
another one increase revenue by 10% but deliver EPS increase 10% which business should I buy?

Their employee cost actually rise and their margin is dropping so not so good
if you look at it that way.... Earning is ok but with all these acquisition how come they not growing their EPS hmmm, what a waste of money if you buy business that doesn't deliver increase EPS.

Another weird stuff on page 6 of their consolidated financial statement they compared this half to last 6 months rather than last year half

the way I see it it is more consistence to compare 1H2010 to 1H2009
but not 1H2010 to 2H2009, it maybe nothing

[So_Cynical]

I don't like iinet latest report, too much spin and I reckon AAPT purchase will turn out to be a dog ..wait and see ....

This company effective grow market share by buying up other ISP but not from organic growth..history tell you when companies do this eventually they hit a dead end as there are no other business left to buy..

After AAPT there isnt much left for iinet to buy out ...things will look interest from here on...

I give you an example of ABC learning, that effective what it been doing for 5 years...grow revenue by buy up other childcares not saying iinet is ABC learning but follow a very similar pattern...

after few years of crazy acquisition there isn't many child care left to buy....and return on equity slow as they get bigger...

In desperation to boost ROE they turn to cheap debt... then came GFC debt isnt cheap...no more place to buy to boost revenues...a bit of clever accounting and a bit of related party transaction and ABC went out with a boom :)

Beware of companies that grow by nothing but acquisition and watch the grow in goodwills because when earning decline these will turn into a very very bad will :-)

just be alert but don't be alarm for now...

In a recent interview with the CPU CEO that i read, he was talking about the business reaching a point where they had "run out of world" as in organic expansion and expansion thru acquisition had become very limited due to the fact that there was nowhere left to expand into....iinet is realistically in the same boat, in that they ran out of Australia, growth by acquisition became the only real growth strategy.

Seriously ROE all successful business eventually "run out of world" jezz just look at BHP, its buy stuff or stagnate for them...same as IIN, nothing at all wrong with buying growth as long as its done on terms that facilitate continued growth.

And just look at the ISP competition there was just 5 or 6 years ago


Telstra
Optus
Internode
iinet
AAPT*
Iprimus
TPG
Exetel
Netspace*
Westnet*
Adam
Dodo
amnet


* Now owned by iinet...there was a need for consolidation, i mean you cant have a consolidation if there is not enough players to enable it.

[tothemax6]

Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.


You need to learn how to gauge the value of companies. Especially if you are committing substantial funds. The simplest gauge is the return-on-equity gauge. If you weight the profit per dollar of equity with the share price vs book value per share, you can get a rough idea of the value of the company. Roger Montgomery (can check him out on youtube) details this fairly simple method.

If there is value there, if you see evidence that iinet is gaining market share over competitors, if you see new things iinet are doing that will give them an edge, these are good things that would indicate you should hold. The price action on the graph only shows the previous market sentiment, there is very little information in the graph as to what next weeks market sentiment will be.

This move it has made is rather tiny, talonsmail. You should see other stocks. For me, if this was an investment rather than a short time speculation, I wouldn't see this move as relevant: I would see it as 'market noise'. Stock prices bounce all over the place, but the value of the business moves smoothly and steadily - slowly dragging the stock price with it. DYOR, value the business, then make your decision. :2twocents

[McCoy Pauley]

Unsurprisingly, AFACT lost the appeal against Cowdroy J's decision. They now have 28 days to apply for special leave to appeal to the High Court. I imagine the film studios will do so (they basically said they would in the run-up to the decision). Again, having read the decision, I can't see how AFACT will win an appeal, but no doubt they will enrich the bank accounts of some already wealthy QCs in the appeal.

I have no opinion on iiNet (though my family has our phone and internet bundled with iiNet and we're reasonably happy with them).

[talonsmail]

Thanks tothemax6. I plan on watching Roger's videos regarding judging value.

[isplicer]

A little bit of a plunge (4%) occurred at the end of trading today... any particular reason or just short term market noise?

[talonsmail]

I folded for a loss. It just seems to keep going down and I was only in short. I think most of you are right, it is all about the true value of a business. Sometimes I forget Im investing money into a real business and just see it as a dollar and cent amount for x shares without considering the direction of the company (instead focussing solely on market price).

Glad to be rid of these ones anyways!..

[isplicer]

Glad to be rid of these ones anyways!..

Could you kindly share your reasons as to why you think iinet doesn't have a bright future?

DISC: Holder.

[So_Cynical]

I entered iinet today at $2.25 ~ i probably shouldn't of been buying in on an up day but as usual didn't want to see the SP get away from me, and since i was prepared to buy in a few weeks ago at 2.60 buying at today price and yield (6.3% gross approx) seemed like the right thing to do.

I like iinet, its a business that's easy to understand, operating in a growth industry with potential to seemingly grow for maybe another 20 or 30 years....a big online customer base means iinet have easy access to low cost add on sales of all sorts of goods and services.

The NBN will level the communications playing field somewhat allowing the dominant players to dominate and the innovators to innovate....should mention that as an Amcom shareholder i will get some IIN shares due to the in specie distribution of Amcom's shareholding of iinet shares...so seemed like a good idea to increase my holding up to a suitable position size.

[So_Cynical]

Today was the first day of trading for the new Amcom shareholders in iinet and on what was a somewhat spectacular down day....not much happened to the iinet SP, a bit of a sell off non event really. :D

A little more volume than usual but the share price certainly didn't tank, actually trading slightly above last weeks low...perhaps in general the small cap Amcon share holders that are now iinet share holders didn't really give a toss about the short term machinations of the market...were well inside their investment comfort zone. :D

[RandR]

what are the barriers to entry for an ISP ? Are there any competitive advantages iinet could possible have over other business such as TPG/Telstra/Optus ?

[McLovin]

what are the barriers to entry for an ISP ?

Whether your Mum has a big enough basement.

Seriously, there's none. You're selling a commodity.

[Starcraftmazter]

Whether your Mum has a big enough basement.

Seriously, there's none. You're selling a commodity.

That's not technically true. If you want to be an ISP which provides a quality, low-cost service, you need to have significant DSLAM coverage, your own private network with redundant capacity and secure bandwidth on international links (which are already pretty congested). This costs an insane amount of money to set up, and there are only a handful of ISPs in Australia which have this - the rest are resellers.

[$20shoes]

That's not technically true. If you want to be an ISP which provides a quality, low-cost service, you need to have significant DSLAM coverage, your own private network with redundant capacity and secure bandwidth on international links (which are already pretty congested). This costs an insane amount of money to set up, and there are only a handful of ISPs in Australia which have this - the rest are resellers.

It's even worse when it comes to NBN. The overheads are a significant barrier - to a point where you can see another Telstra monopoly forming. Courtesy of Internode's CEO, Simon Hsckett:

Each 200 megabit CVC will cost 200 x $20 = $4000 per month (at wholesale, plus GST) to connect (for an effective rate of almost half a million dollars per month for an RSP connected to all 121 points of interconnect) – before a single paying customer is connected.
There turn out to be multiple ways in which this overhead generates quite irrational effective wholesale costs ‘per customer’; When I first detailed this issue in March 2011 (http://blog.internode.on.net/2011/03/30/nbn-wholesale-pricing-problems/), I concentrated on the issue in terms of looking at how large a national provider had to be, before these overheads stopped being insane.
(That answer is: more than 250,000 customers need to be connected nationally before these overheads are no longer a barrier to entry for an RSP to using the NBN directly, meaning that smaller RSPs will be the permanent downstream customers of aggregators, and hence operating with worse operating costs than the larger players)
But it turns out that this is actually not the worst problem with these overheads! Courtesy of the ACCC’s 121 POI decision, another issue about ‘being too small’ has emerged – for NBNCo itself!
This new overhead problem is created not by the size of each ISP so much as by the fact that in each of these 121 sub-networks, the absolute size of the NBN itself will be very small indeed for a number of years; So small in fact that the overhead of these 200 megabit CVC’s (necessary for adequate initial customer performance) will be irrationally high for many years.
For instance, the first Greenfields areas are close to being switched on by NBNCo, and each of these is in a different ACCC determined geographic area (a different POI) and hence each will require a separate 200 megabit CVC to connect to it.
A year from now, we expect (generously) to have only a few hundred houses capable of being connected, in total, for all RSPs, in each of these greenfields areas.
The issue is then that even if a retail provider managed to capture, say, 10% of the entire market in these areas, that means 10% of (say) only around 200 homes at best, implying that the CVC will be serving only about 20 customers.
(Of course, if one ISP managed to become 100% dominant, it’d do far better in effective terms – and this fact illustrates the falsehood of government and NBNCo assurances that the pricing model doesn’t have volume discounts in it. It very much does have them – embedded in the capacity of a larger or dominant player to work through these overheads faster than a smaller player).

[Starcraftmazter]

That's the way they have it planned now. If it comes to be that way, that's a better argument for big ISPs. Don't hold your breath though - it will be changed before NBN is complete.

[McLovin]

That's not technically true. If you want to be an ISP which provides a quality, low-cost service, you need to have significant DSLAM coverage, your own private network with redundant capacity and secure bandwidth on international links (which are already pretty congested). This costs an insane amount of money to set up, and there are only a handful of ISPs in Australia which have this - the rest are resellers.

How much would that cost?

[Starcraftmazter]

How much would that cost?

I'm not sure exactly. I don't think there is any good way to estimate it either; it would depends a lot on your quality vs costs tradeoffs (how much redundancy is in your network, how much international bandwidth do you commit to, how well is your network engineered), how much suppliers like Telstra charge these days (as you would need to put your equipment in relevant exchanges), etc.

[McLovin]

I'm not sure exactly. I don't think there is any good way to estimate it either; it would depends a lot on your quality vs costs tradeoffs (how much redundancy is in your network, how much international bandwidth do you commit to, how well is your network engineered), how much suppliers like Telstra charge these days (as you would need to put your equipment in relevant exchanges), etc.

As a guesstimate, would you say $1m/$10m/$100m/$1b is closer? Obviously if it's the two last numbers there is some barrier to entry, not so much with the first two.

[Starcraftmazter]

I cannot guess, I simply to not know how much it costs to create a network of that scale. I would think to the higher side of those figures.

It also depends on the size of your private network as an ISP and how much cherry picking you want to do as opposed to covering a broader area.

[So_Cynical]

Ok back on track...the IIN SP has held up very well over the last 2 weeks, the chart shows falling volumes and some sideways consolidation coming into the ex dividend date, surprisingly similar chart pattern to the last bottom that also coincidently was around ex dividend date.
~

[So_Cynical]

(10th-August-2011) I entered iinet today at $2.25 ~ i probably shouldn't of been buying in on an up day but as usual didn't want to see the SP get away from me, and since i was prepared to buy in a few weeks ago at 2.60 buying at today price and yield (6.3% gross approx) seemed like the right thing to do.

I like iinet, its a business that's easy to understand, operating in a growth industry with potential to seemingly grow for maybe another 20 or 30 years....a big online customer base means iinet have easy access to low cost add on sales of all sorts of goods and services.

The NBN will level the communications playing field somewhat allowing the dominant players to dominate and the innovators to innovate....should mention that as an Amcom shareholder i will get some IIN shares due to the in specie distribution of Amcom's shareholding of iinet shares...so seemed like a good idea to increase my holding up to a suitable position size.

iinet had a good day today up around 9% :) on the back of the Telstra NBN vote and TPG's (almost) substantial holder revelation...a merger/take over could be on the cards at some point, it could be a good model...iinet being the premium brand and TPG for the masses.

Anyway i figured out the cost base for my iinet shares from the Amcom distribution is $1.36 CPS :) so my average price per IIN share is now $2.14 making today's close of 2.51 look really sweet for me.

I'm back baby!
~

[So_Cynical]

(10th-August-2011)I entered iinet today at $2.25 ~ i probably shouldn't of been buying in on an up day but as usual didn't want to see the SP get away from me, and since i was prepared to buy in a few weeks ago at 2.60 buying at today price and yield (6.3% gross approx) seemed like the right thing to do.


Out today at $2.59 for a 14% profit...i did want to hold for the next big leg up but the way sentiment is at the moment that big leg up could be a long way away.

As per usual ive left the profit in with about 25% of my original capital as a long term hold, works out well because with my other parcel i have from Amcom my average price has actually fallen, so my yield (ROC) has gone up. :)

------------

I also reckon that the ACT buy was a great deal...its a very good, compensative, quality cable based network that they have down there...and i would imagine a whole new customer base for iiNet, so all new money.

[So_Cynical]

Out today at $2.59 for a 14% profit...i did want to hold for the next big leg up but the way sentiment is at the moment that big leg up could be a long way away.

Turns out the above was the big leg up...and i took profit way to early. :banghead:

------------------

Anyway Today iiNet have announced that they have done a deal to buy Internode, for those that don't know, Internode is Australia's largest privately held ISP and considered to be the best ISP in the country...Node have a large customer base centred on SA, they also have a substantial fibre east coast network with switching gear etc and there own DSLAM's in Telstra exchanges nation wide.

iiNet buying Internode is a big deal....and clearly cements IIN in the number 2 provider position with daylight 3rd.

https://blog.iinet.net.au/iinet-sets-place-christmas-dinner-table-member-family/

http://www.zdnet.com.au/iinet-to-buy-internode-339328517.htm

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1835523

[Garpal Gumnut]

Turns out the above was the big leg up...and i took profit way to early. :banghead:

------------------

Anyway Today iiNet have announced that they have done a deal to buy Internode, for those that don't know, Internode is Australia's largest privately held ISP and considered to be the best ISP in the country...Node have a large customer base centred on SA, they also have a substantial east coast network with switching gear etc and there own DSLAM's in Telstra exchanges nation wide.

iiNet buying Internode is a big deal....and clearly cements IIN in the number 2 provider position with daylight 3rd.

https://blog.iinet.net.au/iinet-sets-place-christmas-dinner-table-member-family/

http://www.zdnet.com.au/iinet-to-buy-internode-339328517.htm

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1835523

You are not Robinson Crusoe on that SC.

Did the same.

gg