AAC have been trending up solidly for a long time now but yesterday and today saw a rapid rise in price on large volume. Is it the rains, the Free Trade Agreement, an Institutional buyer or an announcement to be made? Anyone know? :confused:
silent knight
16th-March-2005, 10:05 AM
I've been impressed at some of the analysis I've seen on this forum and though I dont contribute often I keep a good eye on what's written. I find AAC's short term siuation difficult to predict and I wonder if anyone has any comments.
As a holder of AAC I face some difficult decisions over the near future. AAC go ex-rights tomorrow 17th march. They closed yesterday at 1.72, having dropped about 15c when the rights issue of one for five was announced, but rose yesterday from 1.70. The right is to buy shares at 1.65. Does anyone else have the same decisions to make?
My guess is that the long term will be solid and, in the long term, using the rights to purchase will be profitable as the company has been in a long term upward trend.
It is more a short term problem. I'm sure there is money to be made by buying and selling over the next month or so, if only I knew how. Does any one have ideas as to how the price of the shares, and the rights when they list tomorrow, will move short term?
Knobby22
16th-March-2005, 10:45 AM
In my experience, 99 times out of a hundred you should take up the rights rather than sell them.
There will be a temporary fall in share price due to the rights issues but that will end over the next six months. If you trade them you end up paying selling and buying costs plus you are up against professionals trying to get the rights cheaper.
Think long term and provided the company travels OK you should be well up in a years time.
Knobby22
22nd-January-2007, 01:50 PM
Looked at this again and bought some.
They held off the stock in the last half due to the rains being so good.
Not many people realise that while the south of Oz has been in drought, the north have been getting bumper rains.
This next report should be fantastic. Future growth looks good also.
From a technical basis, there has been a breakout.
Knobby
Jrowl
22nd-January-2007, 11:07 PM
It's PE is around 23 I think and has a low dividend.
reece55
22nd-January-2007, 11:22 PM
Jrowl
Toll Holdings has a PE of 27 and a dividend yield of 2% and has gone up 100% in less than a year........ my point here is that P/E and yield are not the be all and end all of stock analysis...... AAC is a growth stock and median forecast EPS growth is almost 100% in 08 ...... Remember, it's not about how expensive the P/E ratio is, or the yield, its all about the NPV of the Company..... And if you don't want to spend 3 years at uni studying business finance, just let the chart do the talking - strong breakout of late, looking good!
Cheers
Knobby22
6th-February-2007, 01:41 PM
Results are pretty good.
Revenue up substantially, meat sales up even more, I like how the specialty beef products are going.
The net profit is down due to a herd revaluation, asset valuations can generally be ignored somewhat.
Looking at the underlying profit, it is up over 120%.
Good rains have occurred up north, so this coming year should be better.
Fundamentally it appears to me a safe hold over the coming year.
Knobby
sting
13th-June-2007, 09:59 AM
UP 24 cents yesterday and even after getting a speeding ticket the indicative price is up another 7 cents before the open.
One of the reasons for this is IMO the major supermarkets are now selling AAC branded beef at premium prices.
profits will be up.... rains have come ...grain prices will fall....all this is good news for shareholders
SEMPER UBI SUB UBI
sting
23rd-October-2007, 10:50 AM
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE
Futuris to sell its 43% stake in AACo .... Any idas on where this will leave the SP Im sure its not in anyones interest to perform a dump and run. So does this leave AACo open to a takeover. Ive never held stock when such a large shareholder bails out. any opinions would be greatly appreciated
BigJohnny
23rd-October-2007, 08:41 PM
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE
Futuris to sell its 43% stake in AACo .... Any idas on where this will leave the SP Im sure its not in anyones interest to perform a dump and run. So does this leave AACo open to a takeover. Ive never held stock when such a large shareholder bails out. any opinions would be greatly appreciated
I believe the SP will be supported away from the recent lows. If there is genuine interest, 2 scenarios will happen. 1. Citigroup (their advisor), will organise a share sale/placement with fund managers/institutional funds. 2. Somebody offers to buy all 43%, which would require a mandatory takeover offer. This would work similar to GNS buying a stake in ANE, where a takeover offer followed after the share sale. Possible suitors would be Macquarie Pastoral Fund, Packer's Consolidated Pastoral Co or other smaller pastoral companies looking to increase size, Brazilian company JBS-Friboi, and Harmony Capital. Be mindful, Futuris have stated the sale will occur in this financial year 07/08, so i believe suitors will have a good look at the books, and Futuris will wait for fair value. http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=303702
Profitseeker
26th-December-2007, 08:31 PM
On the block, price of AA Co just went up
Going, going ... Brunette Downs is one of 24 cattle stations and two feedlots owned by Australian Agricultural Company. Photo: Brendan Esposito
Email Print Normal font Large font AdvertisementAdvertisementVanda Carson
December 20, 2007
AUSTRALIAN Agricultural Company has increased the valuation of its massive land portfolio on the eve of a bidding war triggered by the imminent sale of a majority stake in the company.
The company told the market yesterday the value of its properties - which are mostly in the country's far north - had increased by $180 million in the past six months.
AA Co commissioned valuations of its 24 cattle stations and two feedlots after the company was effectively put on the auction block in October when Futuris announced it wanted to sell its 43 per cent stake, which was worth $344million at yesterday's close.
The properties sprawl over nearly 8 million hectares of land in Queensland and the Northern Territory.
The valuations of the independent Herron Todd White were expected to boost net tangible assets per share by about 49c to about $2.87, the company said.
Assets per share have increased by 41 per cent in three years despite a depressed cattle market and high grain prices.
The scarcity of good beef producing properties and the worldwide trend towards higher-protein diets are pushing prices to historic highs.
One AA Co property alone - Wrotham Park Station in the Queensland Gulf Country - produced an average of 14 per cent annual capital growth over the past 21 years.
The Northern Territory and Queensland have also been receiving better rainfall than southern regions, thanks to monsoon conditions over summer.
Market observers have said the assets were likely to be sold in one line.
Potential buyers include Macquarie Pastoral Fund and the local beef producer Teys Brothers as well as overseas interests such as Cargill of the US and Brazil's JBS group, which bought the meat processor Australian Meat Holdings earlier this year.
Analysts believe shareholders could receive up to $3.77 a share if a full takeover bid is made, 18 per cent up on yesterdays close.
Futuris, whose Elders subsidiary owns the stake, decided to sell because the holding was not spinning off enough cash and the company wanted to focus on its forestry and telecommunications operations.
AA Co recently moved away from selling generic meat to meatworks and into branded beef and wagyu beef for the Japanese market, as a way to increase profit margins. Its shares closed up 2c at $3.21 yesterday.
petamcg
3rd-April-2008, 12:54 PM
I heard that because the US has just agreed to allowing the consumption of cloned beef that the US may as a result look elsewhere for natural product. This may explain a price increase.
The Once-ler
12th-April-2008, 08:34 PM
Price increase?
What increase is that? Looks down to me.
Looks like the lack of rain for the non event wet season over most of AAC's properties is trending the price down. Another pathetic profit result on the way, however the land is a great asset and good buying when the share price bottoms out I think.
josjes
12th-April-2008, 09:50 PM
And what's going on with the planned sale of AACo by Futuris ? No buyer in sight ? Anyone knows the latest ? The price spike early in the year is just speculative froth in anticipation of good offer, but now that credit squeeze is hitting hard, private equity players are nowhere in sight.
sting
21st-May-2008, 07:30 PM
Just got home from the fiasco that was the AGM. Ive seen Nigerian scam artists with more morals than some people who attended the meeting today.
My opinions aside...the outcome
The charman sacked and the 2 othe independant directors resign.
Interesting point raised AACo is currently undergoing a "SUBSTANTIAL" claim against ELDER's (read FUTURIS) against a food additive issue. Now that there are no independant board members only Futuris representatives I wonder what will happen with the claim now.
Also strong rumour raised was that an offer was made to futuris for their 43% holding on condition the board reccommended a takeover of the other 57%. Takeover offer price was $3.50. Futuris board members refused to confirm or deny the rumour and despite the question put to Les and co about what their plans for the future of their stake they refused to answer.
Read into this what you like but I would hate to see Australia's longest Agricultural Co disappear or become owned by oversea's interests
michael_selway
21st-May-2008, 07:58 PM
Just got home from the fiasco that was the AGM. Ive seen Nigerian scam artists with more morals than some people who attended the meeting today.
My opinions aside...the outcome
The charman sacked and the 2 othe independant directors resign.
Interesting point raised AACo is currently undergoing a "SUBSTANTIAL" claim against ELDER's (read FUTURIS) against a food additive issue. Now that there are no independant board members only Futuris representatives I wonder what will happen with the claim now.
Also strong rumour raised was that an offer was made to futuris for their 43% holding on condition the board reccommended a takeover of the other 57%. Takeover offer price was $3.50. Futuris board members refused to confirm or deny the rumour and despite the question put to Les and co about what their plans for the future of their stake they refused to answer.
Read into this what you like but I would hate to see Australia's longest Agricultural Co disappear or become owned by oversea's interests
Date: 21/5/2008
Author: Clancy Yeates
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 27
The re-election of Australian Agricultural Company (AACo) chair NickBurton-Taylor will be opposed by 43% shareholder Futuris. AACo has indicatedboard members Greg Paramour and Chris Roberts will resign in protest ifBurton-Taylor's re-election is opposed by Futuris. The cattle producercould potentially lose four of its six directors at once, with former deputyprime minister, Tim Fischer, ending his term on the board. Futuris recentlyattempted to divest its holding in AACo, but could not find a suitable buyer
Back
Date: 19/5/2008
Author: Matthew Cranston
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 1/60-61
Corporate investors are purchasing large tracts of land in Australia as theglobal demand for meat increases. On 18 May 2007, the motivations were increasedbeef prices, the economic effects of climate change and rising soft commodityprices. Property sales have witnessed a 13 per cent increase turnover in 2004over 2003. In 2007 property prices averaged $A941,650. The World ResourcesInstitute forecasts that 85 per cent of demand growth will come from developingcountries by 2020. These elements have generated interest in land from thecorporates and the superannuation funds, but some doubt that productivity canmatch the prices. Others are concerned that with many purchases being funded bydebt, the investments are more exposed to global economic fluctuations
Date: 7/5/2008
Author: Tracy Lee; Matthew Cranston
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 61
Futuris has had to give up trying to sell its 43% of Australian AgriculturalCompany. The decision was made on 6 May 2008 after rising debt costs made thesale unattractive to potential buyers. Analysts say that the process began in avery different economic climate and that the Futuris share price is likely todrop below $A2 when the market reopens. Futuris released the decision after themarket closed
sting
21st-May-2008, 11:14 PM
Not bad management on behalf of theoutgoing board...sp has risen about 33% in just over a yr. Profits are up.
What some people fail to realise is that Agriculture Co.'s are not going to pay big dividends as they are dependant upon seasonal weather changes, where this company like others in this sector is in its land valuations.
this end of yr results
EBIT up39%
Gross assets up 23%
Sales up 36%
herd increase up 5.7%
Calving up to 74% up from 71% the previous yr
Paid a dividend of 9 cents over the yr which is 3% of the share price
Micheal if you think that that is bad management I must hold some real dogs in my portfolio as very few can compare to the above figures.
to make a fair comparasion
in the last 5 yrs
AAC share price rose from 90 cents to $3.00
FCL has risen from $1.75 to 1.85
Max_ob
22nd-June-2008, 09:04 PM
anyone still in this stock. . . .
it seems to be in freefall and not sure why. . . . can anyone offer some insights on what is going on as it seems more than just dropping with poor overall market performance. . .
Tysonboss1
23rd-June-2008, 10:17 AM
anyone still in this stock. . . .
it seems to be in freefall and not sure why. . . . can anyone offer some insights on what is going on as it seems more than just dropping with poor overall market performance. . .
Part of it could be oil price related,
It's expensive to transport cattle to market..............................
"AAC is one of Australia's largest beef producers. While AAC experiences highly volatile cashflows, its extensive land and cattle holdings create wealth and provide investors with direct exposure to cattle and land price movements. Therefore, dividends will be minimal. Takeover speculation has pushed the share price to levels at which we advise taking profits. We have a negative long-term view.
We view AAC as an asset play rather than a cash generating, dividend paying type investment. Re-entry of the US into Japan and Korean markets may adversely impact AAC’s export earnings. Earnings are also subject to the seasonal conditions. FCL has terminated the sale process for its 43% holding in AAC, which may trigger a short-term run on the stock. We hold a negative 12-month view on AAC.
"
brettc4
8th-July-2008, 08:14 PM
AAC dropped 8% today, but I have not seen any news which may explain this.
Has anyone heard anything???
Brett
Taltan
3rd-December-2009, 10:21 AM
Seems to be reaching new lows lately, does anyone know why? Given their landholdings it looks a bargain. I know there's no profit but thats cause land revaluations don't hit profits, so seems to me it should be higher. Does anyone have any ideas why the recent downturn?
copashark
31st-December-2009, 09:58 AM
Im punting on a upswing for AAC, their greatest assests are the land and the stock. Given recent soaking rain, and short term forecasting over some of their holdings, the pasture crop should be value added and their stock should be value added as beef producers look to re-stock their land after the prolonged dry and stock sales.
GumbyLearner
4th-May-2010, 02:05 AM
I wonder if this fella can make this stock lift???
Still selling steak and flipping burgers in Japan, Korea & China.
Most of the Qld drought broken.
FORMER Telstra chairman Donald McGauchie will become chairman of Australian Agricultural Company in coming months and steer it through a shift from beef production to processing and marketing.
The company said yesterday that Mr McGauchie would join the board at the annual meeting in two weeks, replacing Peter Hughes, and assume the chairmanship from Nick Burton Taylor three months later.
''I have been fully briefed on the recent strategic review at AAco, including the new initiatives in cattle marketing, beef processing and cattle breeding programs,'' Mr McGauchie said yesterday. AAco shares closed yesterday at $1.30, steady on Friday's close but down from $1.83 a year ago.
knightofsx33
4th-May-2010, 02:08 AM
well I wouldnt count on a guy that has his company share price going downward for the past 10 years to shift something that someone else couldnt
GumbyLearner
4th-May-2010, 02:15 AM
well I wouldnt count on a guy that has his company share price going downward for the past 10 years to shift something that someone else couldnt
do you think he's short or ready for a cap raise top-up?
I noticed he was also a NUF director. They don't seem to have done so bad while he was on the board. I honestly dunno about this one.
DYOR
copashark
25th-May-2010, 02:34 AM
Sp now back back to 1.52 and has had a slow and steady rise over the. Last couple of months. Beef prices are still low, but high lamb price(alternate protein) gives beef more backbone. No profit guidance for this year does not help one in making investment decisions. Good growing conditions in the barkly tablelands may bring a more positive result.
malachii
5th-October-2010, 11:06 AM
Anyone know why this one has gone pear shaped over the last few days???? I haven't seen any announcements and the weather hasn't been bad up north that I'm aware of and cattle prices are doing OK at the moment. I guess the $ is hurting them but I didn't think it would hurt this much. Any comments?????
malachii
So_Cynical
5th-October-2010, 10:31 PM
Anyone know why this one has gone pear shaped over the last few days???? I haven't seen any announcements and the weather hasn't been bad up north that I'm aware of and cattle prices are doing OK at the moment. I guess the $ is hurting them but I didn't think it would hurt this much. Any comments?????
malachii
I imagine a large percentage of there revenue comes from live exports into SE Asia so yep the dollars hurting them...there's alot of A Dollar export sensitive stocks hurting, same with stocks that have high USD earnings.
copashark
4th-January-2011, 08:47 PM
Trading halt announced.. any idea's? perhaps further damage relating to the floods in QLD??
tge oracle
10th-May-2011, 09:22 PM
Today's Cap Raising has provided an opportunity for investors without exposure to purchase shares at , what I consider to be, a fair price.
The outlook for beef consumption and sales is very positive for the foreseeable future.
This Cap Raising will position AAC on a firm footing financially by providing funds for expansion and reducing debt.
Disc. - I am invested in AAC.
Taltan
16th-May-2011, 03:37 PM
Is there a retail SPP coming? if so does anyone know when and how much etc? If not it seems a but unfair to be diluted if things are supposedely going well
tinhat
17th-May-2011, 03:18 AM
Is there a retail SPP coming? if so does anyone know when and how much etc? If not it seems a but unfair to be diluted if things are supposedely going well
here (http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/docserver/01179176.pdf?fileid=01179176&datedir=20110510&edt=MjAxMS0wNS0xNyswMzoxMToyNCsxNDM5KzU4NzY0K2xpbm NvbG4rcmVkaXJlY3QrL2ltYWdlc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMv UERGVGltZW91dC5odG1sKy9pbWFnZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2 VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw)
tge oracle
23rd-May-2011, 11:46 AM
According to Elders the livestock ( cattle ) supply is tightening. I would expect this to have a positive impact on AAC as they are Australia's largest cattle producer and will benefit from this tight supply which should lead to higher cattle/beef prices.
